NEW YORK (NYTIMES) - Rising seas could affect three times more people by 2050 than previously thought, according to new research, threatening to all but erase some of the worlds great coastal cities.
The authors of a paper published on Tuesday (Oct 29) developed a more accurate way of calculating land elevation based on satellite readings, a standard way of estimating the effects of sea-level rise over large areas, and found that the previous numbers were far too optimistic.
The new research shows that some 150 million people are now living on land that will be below the high-tide line by mid-century.
Southern Vietnam could all but disappear. More than 20 million people in Vietnam, almost one-quarter of the population, live on land that will be inundated.
Much of Ho Chi Minh City, the nations economic centre, would disappear with it, according to the research, which was produced by Climate Central, a science organisation based in New Jersey, and published in the journal Nature Communications.
The projections dont account for future population growth or land lost to coastal erosion.
Standard elevation measurements using satellites struggle to differentiate the true ground level from the tops of trees or buildings, said Dr Scott Kulp, a researcher at Climate Central and one of the papers authors.
So he and Dr Benjamin Strauss, Climate Centrals chief executive, used artificial intelligence to determine the error rate and correct for it.
In Thailand, more than 10 per cent of citizens now live on land that is likely to be inundated by 2050, compared with just 1 per cent according to the earlier technique.The political and commercial capital, Bangkok, is particularly imperilled.
Climate change will put pressure on cities in multiple ways, said Ms Loretta Hieber Girardet, a Bangkok resident and United Nations disaster risk reduction official.Even as global warming floods more places, it will also push poor farmers off the land to seek work in cities.
It is a dire formula, she said.
In Shanghai, one of Asias most important economic engines, water threatens to consume the heart of the city and many other cities around it.
The findings dont have to spell the end of those areas. The new data shows that 110 million people already live in places that are below the high-tide line, which Dr Strauss attributes to protective measures like seawalls and other barriers.
Cities must invest vastly greater sums in such defences, Dr Strauss said, and they must do it quickly.But even if that investment happens, defensive measures can go only so far.
Dr Strauss offered the example of New Orleans, a city below sea level that was devastated in 2005 when its extensive levees and other protections failed during Hurricane Katrina.
How deep a bowl do we want to live in? he asked.
The new projections suggest that much of Mumbai, Indias financial capital and one of the largest cities in the world, is at risk of being wiped out.
Built on what was once a series of islands, the citys historic downtown core is particularly vulnerable.
Overall, the research shows that countries should start preparing now for more citizens to relocate internally, according to Ms Dina Ionesco of the International Organisation for Migration, an inter-governmental group that coordinates action on migrants and development.
Weve been trying to ring the alarm bells, Ms Ionesco said. We know that its coming.
There is little modern precedent for this scale of population movement, she added.
The disappearance of cultural heritage could bring its own kind of devastation.
Alexandria, Egypt, founded by Alexander the Great around 330BC, could be lost to rising waters.
In other places, the migration caused by rising seas could trigger or exacerbate regional conflicts.
Basra, the second-largest city in Iraq, could be mostly underwater by 2050.
If that happens, the effects could be felt well beyond Iraqs borders, according to Mr John Castellaw, a retired Marine Corps lieutenant-general who was chief-of-staff for US Central Command during the Iraq War.
Further loss of land to rising waters there threatens to drive further social and political instability in the region, which could reignite armed conflict and increase the likelihood of terrorism, said Mr Castellaw, who is now on the advisory board of the Centre for Climate and Security, a research and advocacy group in Washington.
So this is far more than an environmental problem, he said. Its a humanitarian, security and possibly military problem too.
See the rest here:
- 'High Seas' Season 2 Coming to Netflix in November 2019 ... - January 19th, 2020
- High Seas Season 3: Renewed For Third And Fourth Season ... - January 19th, 2020
- Mobile protected areas for biodiversity on the high seas - Science Magazine - January 19th, 2020
- Townsend residents community involvement earns her an all-expense paid trip on the high seas - Lowell Sun - January 19th, 2020
- 5 High Seas Adventures To Watch When Youre Done With Pirates Of The Caribbean - WhatCulture - January 19th, 2020
- Mobile protected areas needed to preserve biodiversity in the high seas - indiablooms - January 19th, 2020
- Navigating the high seas of deals and discounts during Cruise Season - KING5.com - January 19th, 2020
- WATCH: Hovercraft struggles in the Solent strong winds and high seas hit hovers and trains - Isle of Wight County Press - January 19th, 2020
- Legendary Rockers KISS Return To The High Seas With KISS Kruise X - Icon Vs. Icon - January 19th, 2020
- Azur Lane: Crosswave Gets Ship-Shape With New Screenshots and Details Ahead Of Its U.S. Release - Gamepur - January 19th, 2020
- SpaceX delays dramatic in-flight abort test of Falcon 9 rocket to prove Crew Dragon is safe for astronauts - CBS News - January 19th, 2020
- 20 Things That Will Get Anyone In Hot Water With The Cruise Ship Staff - TheTravel - January 19th, 2020
- Annie's Lilla Crawford and Dear Evan Hansen's Jared Goldsmith Will Star in Readings of We Are Still Tornadoes - Playbill.com - January 19th, 2020
- Short Redhead Reel Reviews for the week of Jan. 17 - ECM Publishers - January 19th, 2020
- Dolittle Is One of the Worst Movies in Years - The Atlantic - January 19th, 2020
- Millions of Sharks Around the World May Have Fishing Hooks Stuck Inside Them, Scientists Suggest - Newsweek - January 19th, 2020
- 20 things everyone gets in hot water with the cruise ship staff - Mash Viral - January 19th, 2020
- Twitch streamer goes AFK at the worst possible time in Sea of Thieves - Dexerto - January 19th, 2020
- Ocean temperatures hit record high as rate of heating accelerates - The Guardian - January 19th, 2020
- Nul points for Britain in the EU revision bong contest - The Guardian - January 19th, 2020
- How an advert in the Echo led to a life on the high seas and France's highest order of merit - Liverpool Echo - January 19th, 2020
- Bobby Labonte lives up to family name with NASCAR Hall of Fame induction - Speedway Digest - January 19th, 2020
- Dolittle is muddled CGI chaos with a grotesque irony at its core - The Globe and Mail - January 19th, 2020
- Advanced Native 4K Projector Technology Hits the High Seas, as Panasonic Collaborates with Princess Cruises to Deliver Its First Immersive... - January 7th, 2020
- High Seas Season 3: Netflix Release Date, Cast And Other Details - The Digital Wise - January 7th, 2020
- High Seas Season: Heres Why This Spanish Suspense Drama Is A Must See! - TheNationRoar - January 7th, 2020
- These 5 Navies Are Uncontested On The High Seas - Yahoo News - January 7th, 2020
- Factbox: Highlights of Austrian conservative-Greens coalition deal - Reuters - January 7th, 2020
- Deadly conditions for Indonesian migrant crews tied to illegal fishing - Mongabay.com - January 7th, 2020
- Going Big with Marine Conservation - The UCSB Current - January 7th, 2020
- Tony Winner Paulo Szot and Real Housewives of Beverly Hills' Erika Jayne Join Broadway Cast of Chicago January 6 - Playbill.com - January 7th, 2020
- [UPDATE 9:27 am] Coast Guard Works to Rescue Three Crew Members of Commercial Fishing Boat Damaged Near the South Jetty - Redheaded Blackbelt - January 7th, 2020
- Gavin Creel to Perform at the Metropolitan Museum of Art - Playbill.com - January 7th, 2020
- Climate models agree things will get bad. Capturing just how bad is tricky - Science News - January 7th, 2020
- Cable Girls Season 5: 5 Things To Know Before Its Scheduled Netflix Release - The Digital Weekly - January 7th, 2020
- Enmeshed economies will bring us togeher Himal Southasian - Himal Southasian - January 7th, 2020
- Paul Watson: "If The Oceans Die, We Die" - Their Turn - January 7th, 2020
- Suite Life Of Zack & Cody: What Happened To Cole & Dylan Sprouse - Screen Rant - January 7th, 2020
- Does China Really Need Aircraft Carriers? - The National Interest Online - January 7th, 2020
- Weekends on the Web: Saturday & Sunday, January 4-5, 2020 - KTVI Fox 2 St. Louis - January 7th, 2020
- Northern Sea Route: From Speculations to Reality by 2035 - High North News - January 7th, 2020
- The Guardian view on Brexits fishy tale: we will need friends at sea - The Guardian - January 5th, 2020
- Trade negotiators have missed a deadline to help protect fish stocks - The Economist - January 5th, 2020
- MURDER IN '47: Monsters, boozehounds and battered women - Toronto Sun - January 5th, 2020
- They Find It Suffocating And About To Die By Plastic Thrown Into The Ocean [VIDEO] - Maritime Herald - January 5th, 2020
- Wow! 15 incredible things NYC kids can't miss in 2020 - Time Out New York Kids - January 5th, 2020
- Editorial: In this new decade, set the bar high - Concord Monitor - January 5th, 2020
- Dame Edna Rules the Waves, BBC1, review: Dame Edna was resplendent in fire-alarm pink on a gilt throne - inews - January 5th, 2020
- Why Zola from The Witcher looks so familiar - Looper - January 5th, 2020
- Dr Disrespect reveals his favorite streamers and why summit1g is "top" - Dexerto - January 5th, 2020
- Below Deck reunion special: Who is coming together to celebrate the 100th episode? - Monsters and Critics - January 5th, 2020
- Santa takes to the high seas - Eternity News - December 21st, 2019
- Investigating salmon mysteries on the high seas - National Observer - December 21st, 2019
- Spill and Run: Brazil Struggles to ID Tanker Behind Oil Pollution - The Maritime Executive - December 21st, 2019
- The Navy Has A New Stealth Destroyer, But It Is No True Battleship (At Least Not Yet) - The National Interest Online - December 21st, 2019
- Cinderella Stars Santino Fontana and Laura Osnes Will Reunite for The Big Time Concert - Playbill.com - December 21st, 2019
- Step Aside Fires, Drought And Crazy Weather. Sea Level Rise Is Slowly Getting Its Day In California. - Capital Public Radio News - December 21st, 2019
- These Are The 5 Best Battleships To Ever Sail The 7 Seas - Yahoo News - December 21st, 2019
- Public warned of rip currents and high seas - Saipan Tribune - December 21st, 2019
- Tony Winner Paulo Szot to Join Broadway Cast of Chicago - Playbill.com - December 21st, 2019
- Eyeing DoD Biz, Inmarsat Buys Airborne Terminals Breaking Defense - Defense industry news, analysis and commentary - Breaking Defense - December 21st, 2019
- 15 Of The Best Holiday Treats From Disney Parks Around The World - Delish - December 21st, 2019
- Cruise: Cruisers can enjoy discounts and exclusive experiences with this little known tip - Express - December 21st, 2019
- 5 Times North Korea Provoked a Crisis (And Why They Keep Doing It) - The National Interest Online - December 21st, 2019
- The Role of the Arctic in Chinese Naval Strategy - The Jamestown Foundation - December 21st, 2019
- Fuel Cells to Lower Harmful Emissions on the High Seas - Advanced Science News - December 13th, 2019
- Wind Development In The High Seas Could Unlock Offshore Potential But Ownership Laws Need To Be Defined - Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide - December 13th, 2019
- Europe is sending a robot to clean up space. Why is the junk there in the first place? - WDJT - December 13th, 2019
- Everything You Should Know About 'High Seas' Season 3 On Netflix. - The Digital Wise - December 13th, 2019
- The race to lay claim on the Bering Strait as Arctic ice retreats - The Guardian - December 13th, 2019
- The European Space Agency Is Sending a Robot to Hug Junk Out of Space - Smithsonian.com - December 13th, 2019
- Human Rights Day: Free and Equal - The Maritime Executive - December 13th, 2019
- Prose and Kohn: Sailing the digital seas - YourObserver.com - December 13th, 2019
- Inland solicitor takes to the high seas - Law Society of Ireland Gazette - December 13th, 2019
- Captain Matt is Master of the High Seas - HGV Ireland.com - December 13th, 2019
- The First Mission to Remove Space Junk From Orbit Has Just Been Commissioned - ScienceAlert - December 13th, 2019
- Applauding Britain for Taking in Young Holocaust Survivors, the BBC Covers Up the Country's Disdain for Their Wishes - Mosaic - December 13th, 2019
- Sea Keeper : Save Life, Save the Ocean - QS WOW News - December 13th, 2019
- Jalesh: India's First Multinational Cruise Line With Best of Everything - India.com - December 13th, 2019
- THE HIGH SEAS: Brunswick looks bounce back and send seniors off on high note - Brunswick News - November 1st, 2019