Tropical Storm Isaias will likely develop this week
An already record breaking pace to the 2020 Hurricane Season will likely increase its buffer room. On Monday morning, the National Hurricane Center said its monitoring a tropical wave traveling across the lower latitude of the Atlantic Ocean.
As of 8 a.m. Monday morning, Invest 92L has a 80% chance of turning into a tropical system by Wednesday morning. The next name on the list is called Isaias.
Called Invest 92L, this has an 80% chance of turning into Tropical Storm Iasias by Wednesday morning and a 90% chance of that happening by Saturday morning.
The National Hurricane Center's forecast takes the storm through the central Atlantic Ocean and have it pass through the Lesser Antilles by the end of the week.
From there, the storm will likely have a track north of Puerto Rico, Haiti and the Dominican Republic. The storm could make multiple landfalls on these islands, which would weaken the storm as it passes. The reason for this is a large area of high pressure in the Atlantic Ocean, extending from Spain to Bermuda. The storm will be steered around the high pressure into the weekend.
The tropical wave, marked with an L in the Central Atlantic Ocean, will follow along the southern edge of a sprawling area of high pressure in the ocean.
From there, the forecast becomes less certain. The strength of the high pressure, as well an incoming system from the United States will play a role in its track during the first weekend of August.
More than likely, though, this storm will make a curve to the north as it nears the East Coast of the United States, continuing around the high pressure system.
The spaghetti plots, a group of different model runs places on the same map, shows the storm likely making a turn up the East Coast sometime during the weekend of Aug. 1-2.
If the high pressure is weaker, or further away from the U.S., the storm will likely spin harmlessly out to sea, or impact Bermuda. If the storm is further west, there would be a greater likelihood of an East Coast landfall. The high pressure may also be so strong that it pushes the storm into Florida or the Gulf of Mexico. However, there is no official forecast this far out for the storm.
Yes, but just as much of a chance as any other storm that's in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean 7 to 10 days before making its closest approach, wherever that may be.
The July 7 Atlantic Hurricane season update from Colorado State University has another incre
There have only been 10 tropical storms and hurricanes to make landfall in South Jersey since 1900, but does that include Tropical Storm Fay July 10. That being said, a storm 100-200 miles out can still bring impacts. Hurricane Michael in October 2018, Hurricane Florence in September 2018 and Hurricane Hermine in 2016 are all recent storms that tracked near South Jersey and brought at least high seas, rip currents and coastal flooding. Hurricane Dorian passed well offshore the Jersey Shore, but still bring rain and wind.
Remnants from Hurricane Dorian empty the Ventnor Boardwalk in September.
New Jersey is generally shielded from the worst of tropical activity from North Carolina. Located to the south of the state, storms may strike the Carolina coast and then bring a weakened version of itself to New Jersey. Furthermore, storms may make landfall on the Gulf Coast and bring remnants to the region, instead of the full impacts. Still, though, heavy rain can occur as the tropical moisture is carried hundreds of miles north.
Isaias would be the ninth named tropical system in the Atlantic Hurricane basin. That would continue to outpace the 2005 season for the most active on record.
Hurricane Hanna, which make landfall in South Jersey Saturday, turned into a Tropical Storm on July 23. That was more than two weeks ahead of 2005's pace, which was Tropical Storm Harvey.
Hurricane Irene developed as a tropical storm August 7, 2005, a mark Isaias will almost surely beat out.
The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane season in the most active on record, which goes back to 1851 (though the advent of weather satellites in the 1960s means hurricane seasons before then may not have been accurately calculated). That year 28 named storms developed, exhausting the alphabet list of storms. The NHC then had to turn to the Greek Alphabet for names.
If the names sound familiar, that's because the National Hurricane Center reuses names every 6 years. Though notable storms, like Sandy and Harvey, can be retired by the World Meteorological Organization.
"Isaias" is the Spanish and Portuguese word for the biblical Isaiah. It is pronounced ees-ah-EE-ahs.
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