Friday brings rain, storms, repeat of last week, also watching Iasias – Press of Atlantic City

Last Friday brought rain for a few hours in the morning, before afternoon thunderstorms moved in.

This Friday will be quite similar. Showers will be present during much of the morning, with a spotty thunderstorm during the afternoon.

Periods of rain will be present all throughout the morning. There will be dry time, but most outdoor work and plans will need to be moved. Heavy downpours will be around. Rainfall totals will be between 0.30 to 0.60 during the morning. Some spots will have areas of roadway flooding. If you see flooded roads, turn around.

Otherwise, temperatures will start in the low to mid-70s, extending our streak of nights at or above 70 degrees. As long as we stay above 70 degrees by midnight Friday, Atlantic City International Airport will have the longest streak of 70-degree or greater nights at 15. Sen. Frank. S. Farley Marina will reside in the fourth spot, with 25 days (record is 33).

Rain will taper between 9 and 11 a.m. There will still be an isolated shower around but many should be dry until 2 p.m. or so. Then, scattered showers and storms will flare back up. That will continue until around sunset.

A damaging gustS will be possible with these storms, in addition to more flooded roadways. High temperatures will be in the low to mid-80s with the cloudy and rainy day. That would snap our heat wave at five days.

A cold front will sink through the region overnight. Youll notice a clearing sky and less muggy air. Well slide into the 80s and 70s during the evening. Come Saturday morning, well be in the upper 60s on the mainland, with low 70s at the shore.

Saturday will be the better of the two weekend days. With the cold front furthest away from us, we should squeak out the day and stay dry. Well have a mostly- to partly-sunny sky, with the most sunshine in Little Egg Harbor Township and places north of the White Horse Pike.

Well be in the low to mid-80s. Itll be perfect for a trip to the shore, pool or anywhere with water. Outdoor projects will be a go all day thanks to the lower heat. Again, history will repeat itself, as this will be the second Friday-Saturday combination in a row with highs below 90. No air conditioner? Maybe.

Dew points will rise on a dry Saturday night as a warm front lifts north through the region. Expect a few showers to fly around after midnight until around dawn Sunday. Between the showers and sticky air, itll be a mild night. Low to mid-70s will be expected, well above average for this time of the year.

Sunday will heat up quickly. Well get to the low 90s for mainland highs. The south wind will save the shore, with mid-80s there. That cold front will pass late Sunday. Expect showers and storms from the late afternoon, into the night. However, theyll be few and far between, and youll have a mostly dry Sunday.

That will then take us to the beginning of the week, when Iasias becomes our concern. At this time, any impacts would be between Monday night and early Wednesday. Options range from rough seas, rip currents and some coastal flooding. While a landfalling storm is not likely, its just a technicality, a close brush by from a tropical storm can bring the same effects.

New Jersey remains in the forecast cone. Options from a graze up the coast to an inland track near the Delaware River are possible. Tropical storm warnings extend from Boston, down the I-95 corridor to Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.

As of 3 p.m., the National Weather Service Hazards for the Northeast. Tropical storm warnings are in dark red.

It is important to note that the heaviest rain will be to the west of Isaias' center. Meanwhile, the strongest winds will be to the east.

"Isaas" is the Spanish and Portuguese word for the biblical Isaiah. It is pronounced ees-ah-EE-ahs.

Isaias joins Tropical Storm Fay, which made landfall just south of Long Beach Island on July 10, as the two storms put the region in the forecast cone.

The cone represents a two-thirds probability of where the center of the low pressure center is.

The storm will slip through a weakness in a large high pressure system, which expands from the Gulf of Mexico into much of the Atlantic Ocean.

This map shows the steering patterns of the atmosphere between the 300 to 850 millibar level, between about 30,000 and 5,000 feet high. Isaias will slip through the weakness in the clockwise spinning high pressure system off the coast of Florida.

One it reaches Georgia, the steering patterns sharply moves west to east. While the storm won't curve immediately out to sea, there will be a turn to the northeast as it moves north, hence why New Jersey is in the forecast cone.

Forecast model guidance continues to narrow. A landfall will be possible, or can a pass two to three hundred miles out to sea.

The model track guidance for Tropical Storm Iasias, as of 8 a.m. Friday.

There are three options at play. However, it will not be until Saturday when they can be narrowed down. If the storm makes landfall before reaching New Jersey, that will weaken the storm, and vice versa. The first two scenarios are favored, with the third one looking less and less likely.

Option 1:

The European model from Wednesday night is a good representation of what scenario 1 would look like. The center of the storm is well out to sea.

Isaias stays 200 to 300 miles out to sea, passing between late Monday and Tuesday.

Spotty, but heavy, rain bands will pass. Winds would be gusty, but likely would not be enough to bring damage.

The real concerns would be out on the water. Given the full moon Monday and the onshore winds. Multiple rounds of minor or moderate coastal flooding would be likely. High seas would be present, with dangerous rip currents, too. During Tropical Storm Fay, a teenage lost his life in Ventnor while swimming with two friends the evening of the storm. In Ocean City, two 18-year-old girls were brought to shore by city police the following morning.

A heat wave that drives you to the shore, warm water temperature that draws you to the surf

Option 2:

The storm hugs the Jersey Shore. While the western side of the storm is usually the safer side, since the winds around the counter-clockwise spinning system goes against the northerly direction of the storm's movement, worse impacts than option 1 are possible.

Flooding rain, damaging winds at the coast, minor to moderate coastal flooding, dangerous rip currents and high seas will all be likely.

This being said, a track coast to the close would likely mean land interaction with North Carolina. If that happens, the storm would weaken. This could mean the difference between a strong tropical storm and weak, less organized one.

The Global Forecast System, American, model paints this picture. Though, note that the exact track of the storm should not be paid attention to. Rather, note how organized the storm is.

The GFS, American model, paints tropical storm force sustained winds at the shore Tuesday morning. Emergency personnel will not respond to a 9-1-1 call when winds are above tropical storm force.

Option 3:

Isaias makes landfall in Florida or the Southeastern United States and the center of the storm passes to the west of the state. That is illustrated on the western edge of the forecast cone.

The storm would likely be a remnants storm by then, or perhaps a Tropical Depression. However, flooding rains, some coastal flooding, dangerous seas, rip currents and high surf would be likely.

The Canadian weather forecast model from the Thursday night model run. Note the center of the storm is inland and would likely be a remnant storm, or a tropical depression by then.

Saturday.

By then, the storm will be near Florida. In the weakness of the large, Gulf of Mexico to Atlantic Ocean high pressure system, there will be a better idea on how the steering currents will move the storm.

Tropical Storm watches may go up Saturday night or Sunday morning, 48 hours before tropical storm force (39 mph or greater) winds arrive.

The Press of Atlantic City's Hurricane section of the Weather Center has the information you need to know to protect yourself and learn more about tropical systems in South Jersey.

Ten tropical storms and hurricanes have made landfall in South Jersey since 1900. Here's the list, newly updated with Tropical Storm Fay, which made landfall July 10. As long as the storm makes landfall in New Jersey, it will be the first time with two storms making landfall within the same year.

Making landfall on the Delaware Bay side of Cape May County on the morning of August 21, 1971, Doria was responsible for an F-2 tornado, with winds over 100 mph, near Cape May .

According to the Weather Prediction Center, 3 to 7 inches of rain fell in most of the region.

An active 2020 hurricane season was predictedby Colorado State University. With Isaias, 2020 continues its record breaking pace to hurricane season, beating out the historic 2005 year.

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Friday brings rain, storms, repeat of last week, also watching Iasias - Press of Atlantic City

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