Bitcoin (BTC) begins Monday by avoiding another test of $9,000, but what could happen to change the mood or even set off a bull run?
Cointelegraph takes a look at five major facts that could influence the BTC price during the coming week.
The macro outlook seemed more or less stable on Monday. Prior to trading, futures for the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and more were modestly up, despite concerns mounting over coronavirus.
Specifically, one source quoted by Bloomberg warned on Sunday, the sentiment is one of worry both about the spread of cases and the United States response to protect the economy.
If the Federal Reserve intervenes in equities yet again and adds to its balance sheet, it would increase the sense of an artificial presence on the markets in terms of competition.
There is an emerging possibility that the Fed hasnt gone far enough, quantitative strategists at Sanford C. Bernstein wrote in a note.
If that came to pass, then maybe valuation of the market simply doesnt matter.
Fed balance sheet as of July 7. Source: Federal Reserve
As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin has shown no signs of lessening its dependence on stocks in recent weeks. Moves up or down appeared to shape BTC/USD performance, with last weeks trip from $9,000 to near $9,500 and back down again being no exception.
Analysts particularly eye the S&P 500, an index with which Bitcoin currently shows a 95% correlation.
Coronavirus is also weighing on U.S. consumer confidence, fresh data meanwhile shows, with five indicators all flashing bearish in July after recovering during the two previous months.
On the topic of macro, trader sentiment in cryptocurrency still contrasts with that of traditional markets.
That was the conclusion from two incarnations of the Fear & Greed Index, a basket of factors designed to show whether traders are overly risk-off or unduly confident.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in the fear category with little movement for several weeks. By contrast, the traditional market equivalent is flashing greed, while slowly trending downwards towards neutral.
On a scale of 1 to 100, Monday scored 59, down 7 points from the same time one month ago. The cryptocurrency equivalent measured 43 for Monday and 38 last month.
Fuelling traditional greed was extreme greed in stock price breadth, while derivatives put and call options, along with safe-haven demand, also sat firmly in the greed range.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index 1-month chart. Source: Alternative.me
The greed narrative fits with other signs that stocks, in particular, are overly buoyant.
As noted by market commentator Holger Zschaepitz on Monday, the correlation between the Nasdaq and S&P 500 is on the up, in what he describes as a sign of exuberance.
At the same time, banks are gearing up for a dismal quarterly performance, something that is on track to be the worst since the 2008 financial crisis.
As Cointelegraph noted, misgivings about stocks recovery since March have long persisted in Bitcoin circles. The Feds interventions, in particular, have fuelled accusations that the entire atmosphere is now artificial, and true value is of limited relevance.
Numbers this week show that investors themselves have in fact gone for cash and gold not equities in 2020. Inflows into the two assets beat others since the start of the year, similar to 2008-9.
Inflows as a % of assets under management chart. Source: Jeroen Blokland/ Twitter
Monday sees a new Bitcoin difficulty adjustment, the latest in a series of bullish moves that underline miner confidence.
With the event just hours away at press time, estimates suggest a difficulty uptick of around 9.5%.
This is much stronger than the previous move two weeks ago, which was stagnant, and on the way to matching last months 15% surge, which was the largest since early 2018.
Difficulty represents how much effort is required to solve equations when mining new Bitcoin blocks. Upward adjustments suggest more competition, with Mondays estimate slowly increasing over the past week.
At the same time, the network hash rate, having reached an all-time average high last week, has tailed off slightly. Data from Blockchain estimates a seven-day average of 124.42 EH/s for Monday, having previously hit 126 EH/s.
Hash rate is a sensitive and inexact metric, but nonetheless provides an idea of how much computing power is being dedicated to Bitcoin mining. Major swings are not uncommon, and a popular theory suggests that bullish progress for hash rate is followed some time later by a copycat Bitcoin price move.
Bitcoin 7-day average hash rate 1-month chart. Source: Blockchain
Bitcoin futures markets generated few opportunities for price movements over the weekend. Low volatility means that markets will begin Monday in a similar position to that at which they ended on Friday.
If Monday and Friday do not match, a gap opens up in futures markets which the BTC/USD spot tends to fill in subsequent days or even hours.
CME Bitcoin futures chart showing lack of weekend gap. Source: TradingView
Nonetheless, futures remain a source of suspicion for some. As Cointelegraph reported, in-house analyst filbfilb warned last week that weak performance could be a sign of worse to come.
Specifically, one indicator showed uncanny similarities to the days before Bitcoins March crash. Should history repeat itself, he added, the drop, however, should not be as intense as at that time.
Read more from the original source:
Stocks, Greed and Exuberance: 5 Things to Watch in Bitcoin This Week - Cointelegraph
- Google removes malware Android apps used to secretly mine bitcoin - April 26th, 2014 [April 26th, 2014]
- Bitcoin exchange MtGox liquidated - April 26th, 2014 [April 26th, 2014]
- Bitcoin Wannabe Litecoin Emerges as Low-Price Challenger - April 26th, 2014 [April 26th, 2014]
- The Worlds First Bitcoin Debit Card Is Almost Here - April 26th, 2014 [April 26th, 2014]
- How does Bitcoin work? - Bitcoin - Open source P2P money - April 26th, 2014 [April 26th, 2014]
- Bitcoin - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia - April 26th, 2014 [April 26th, 2014]
- The Bitcoin Group #27 - China Bans Bitcoin Again - Politics - Dark Market - Bitcoin VC - Video - April 26th, 2014 [April 26th, 2014]
- Edan Yago - Free Market Bitcoin regulation and Honduras free trade zones.mp4 - Video - April 26th, 2014 [April 26th, 2014]
- Bitcoin vs. Political Power: The Cryptocurrency Revolution - Stefan Molyneux at TNW Conference - Video - April 26th, 2014 [April 26th, 2014]
- Video: Roundup of This Week's Bitcoin News 25th April 2014 - Video - April 26th, 2014 [April 26th, 2014]
- Bitcoin Fredagsbar med Torben Mark Pedersen - Video - April 26th, 2014 [April 26th, 2014]
- Bitcoin and the Internet of Money - Video - April 26th, 2014 [April 26th, 2014]
- Bitcoin for Dummies - Video - April 26th, 2014 [April 26th, 2014]
- Bitcoin runner-up Litecoin emerges as low-price challenger - April 27th, 2014 [April 27th, 2014]
- Bitcoin or Gold? Squawk Walk Taipei- Squawkonomics - Video - April 27th, 2014 [April 27th, 2014]
- Bitcoin Miner AntMiner S1 180 - 200 GH/s Nu in de Aanbieding! - Video - April 27th, 2014 [April 27th, 2014]
- New Bitcoin Documentary: Boom or Bust - Video - April 27th, 2014 [April 27th, 2014]
- Bitcoin May v0.9.1 GitHub Source Code Development Visualization - Video - April 27th, 2014 [April 27th, 2014]
- Atomic-Trade Bitcoin Exchange. AML, BSA, FinCEN compliant - Video - April 27th, 2014 [April 27th, 2014]
- China Bans Bitcoin Again -- Bitcoin the Movie -- Startup for Startups Raises 2,000 BTC - Video - April 27th, 2014 [April 27th, 2014]
- 4/24/14 - Xapo Debit Card, Russia's 1st Bitcoin Conference, Silk Road 2.0 - Video - April 27th, 2014 [April 27th, 2014]
- What is Bitcoin? - Video - April 27th, 2014 [April 27th, 2014]
- David Andolfatto, How Does Bitcoin Work? - Video - April 27th, 2014 [April 27th, 2014]
- Australian Bitcoin traders hit by crash - April 28th, 2014 [April 28th, 2014]
- Bitcoin traders hit by Mt.Gox crash - April 28th, 2014 [April 28th, 2014]
- Market Extra: Bitcoin venture capital money hasnt kept up with buzz - April 28th, 2014 [April 28th, 2014]
- Bitcoin price slips as China steps up regulation - April 28th, 2014 [April 28th, 2014]
- Bitcoin price slips on China regulation - April 28th, 2014 [April 28th, 2014]
- Win .33 Bitcoin ($150 or so, Depending on BTC value) - Meme game for May 1st - Take My Bitcoins - Video - April 28th, 2014 [April 28th, 2014]
- Ron Paul on Bitcoin - Video - April 28th, 2014 [April 28th, 2014]
- btc.sx Bitcoin derivatives platform George Samman clip - Video - April 28th, 2014 [April 28th, 2014]
- 'The Rise And Rise Of Bitcoin' Filmmaker: 'There Is No Answer Yet' - April 29th, 2014 [April 29th, 2014]
- Bitcoin the movie: It just had to happen - April 29th, 2014 [April 29th, 2014]
- Bitcoin Vies with New Cryptocurrencies as Coin of the Cyber Realm - April 29th, 2014 [April 29th, 2014]
- The Bitcoin Meetup - BitcoinMKE Hosts Jeffrey Tucker - Video - April 29th, 2014 [April 29th, 2014]
- MIT Bitcoin Expo 2014 - Video - April 29th, 2014 [April 29th, 2014]
- Bitcoin Expo 2014: Fireside Chat with Dr Gavin Wood - Video - April 29th, 2014 [April 29th, 2014]
- Rise Bitcoin Singapore - Video - April 29th, 2014 [April 29th, 2014]
- Preview: Bitcoin Authenticator - 2FA for wallets - Video - April 29th, 2014 [April 29th, 2014]
- The Bitcoin Group #27 (Live) - China Bans Bitcoin Again - Politics - Dark Market - Bitcoin VC - Video - April 29th, 2014 [April 29th, 2014]
- 4/25/14 - More China uncertainty, Missourian bitcoin warning, BadLepricon malware - Video - April 29th, 2014 [April 29th, 2014]
- Money & Tech at The Rise And Rise Of Bitcoin Afterparty - Video - April 29th, 2014 [April 29th, 2014]
- New Bitcoin student club at MIT will promote the virtual currency - April 30th, 2014 [April 30th, 2014]
- 4/29/14 - MIT Bitcoin Project, Mt Gox revival plan, Mastercard lobbyists & Team Rubicon - Video - April 30th, 2014 [April 30th, 2014]
- BitCoin Dentist GoCoin Fox News Interview - Video - April 30th, 2014 [April 30th, 2014]
- Bitcoin Foundation Election Hiccups -- Pathetic Ohio Bans Bitcoins -- Dogecon SF 2014 - Video - April 30th, 2014 [April 30th, 2014]
- Bitcoin Slips to $420 as BTC China Halts Transactions - Video - April 30th, 2014 [April 30th, 2014]
- MultiSig Plus BitCoin Multi Coin Wallet looks like HUGE INVESTMENT potential! - Video - April 30th, 2014 [April 30th, 2014]
- Bitcoin: what happens when the miners pack up their gear? - May 1st, 2014 [May 1st, 2014]
- Dark Wallet Is About to Make Bitcoin Money Laundering Easier Than Ever - May 1st, 2014 [May 1st, 2014]
- Bitcoin Talk Show #7 -- Skype BitcoinTalkShow to Call in Live! 🙂 - Video - May 1st, 2014 [May 1st, 2014]
- Basic Bitcoin Bitches - Video - May 1st, 2014 [May 1st, 2014]
- Gold standard vs Fiat vs Bitcoin - Truthloader - Video - May 1st, 2014 [May 1st, 2014]
- How to Defund the System: Bitcoin vs. the Central Banksters - Video - May 1st, 2014 [May 1st, 2014]
- Bitcoin, Anarchy and Freedom with Roger Ver - Video - May 1st, 2014 [May 1st, 2014]
- MIT Goes Bitcoin-Wild - May 1st, 2014 [May 1st, 2014]
- Bitcoin Weekly 2014 April 30: Bloomberg adds Bitcoin to their market index, MIT to produce campus-wide bitcoin ... - May 1st, 2014 [May 1st, 2014]
- 'Dark Wallet' wants to make Bitcoin even harder to trace - May 1st, 2014 [May 1st, 2014]
- Bitcoin made simple (video animation) - Video - May 1st, 2014 [May 1st, 2014]
- Jon Matonis: Bitcoin - The future of commerce? - Video - May 1st, 2014 [May 1st, 2014]
- $100 in Bitcoin Going to Every MIT Undergrad - Video - May 1st, 2014 [May 1st, 2014]
- The Rise of Digital Currency - Video - May 1st, 2014 [May 1st, 2014]
- Money Goes Virtual: The Bitcoin Bourse - Video - May 2nd, 2014 [May 2nd, 2014]
- Bitcoin Lights with LIFX - Video - May 2nd, 2014 [May 2nd, 2014]
- Bitcoin: How We Got Here and Where We Are Going - May 3rd, 2014 [May 3rd, 2014]
- 5/1/14 - Larry Summers warns critics, Paym system & Bitcoin Center NYC roundtable - Video - May 3rd, 2014 [May 3rd, 2014]
- On est Connect S2 #07 1/2 : BitCoin et Musique sur Internet - Video - May 3rd, 2014 [May 3rd, 2014]
- MIT Undergrads To Receive $100 Worth Of Bitcoin This Fall - Video - May 3rd, 2014 [May 3rd, 2014]
- Why it only took ME less than 2 minutes to believe in Bitcoin - Video - May 3rd, 2014 [May 3rd, 2014]
- Bitcoin Basics and Regulation Thoughts from NH Liberty Forum - Bruce Fenton - Video - May 3rd, 2014 [May 3rd, 2014]
- PRIMER CAJERO DE BITCOIN EN BIT CENTER DE TIJUANA - Video - May 3rd, 2014 [May 3rd, 2014]
- Yelp adds Bitcoin acceptance to business listings - Video - May 3rd, 2014 [May 3rd, 2014]
- Bitcoin A Terrorist Threat? Counterterrorism Program Names Virtual Currencies As Area Of Interest - May 4th, 2014 [May 4th, 2014]
- How Does Bitcoin Works - Video - May 4th, 2014 [May 4th, 2014]
- 10 Things You Didn't Know About BitCoin - Video - May 4th, 2014 [May 4th, 2014]
- BITCOIN The Future of Money - Video - May 4th, 2014 [May 4th, 2014]
- Bitcoin Miner Review - Video - May 4th, 2014 [May 4th, 2014]
- The Bitcoin Group #28 (Live) - Yelp Lists Bitcoin - MIT Bitcoin $100 - Dark Wallet - Ohio Bans BTC - Video - May 4th, 2014 [May 4th, 2014]
- Bitcoin: Gary North is Mentally Deranged And Bitcoin Will Change Everything - Video - May 4th, 2014 [May 4th, 2014]
- Who is the Bitcoin Warlord? - Video - May 4th, 2014 [May 4th, 2014]