By NEIL HARTNELL
Tribune Business Editor
The Bahamas is among the top four nations forecast to be hit hardest by rising sea levels, a rating agency warned yesterday, with up to 15 percent of annual GDP and 11 percent of its people in peril.
Moodys, unveiling an assessment about the long-term threat to sovereign creditworthiness posed by climate change, drew on multiple studies to identify The Bahamas - as well as Vietnam, Egypt and Suriname - as the four countries most threatened by rising sea levels resulting from global warming.
Describing the outlook as a material credit risk, Moodys also voiced concern that The Bahamas efforts to combat sea level rise lack co-ordination among government institutions and are made more complicated because much coastal, low-lying land is in the hands of private owners such as major resorts.
Drawing on a World Bank study, the credit rating agency - which currently has The Bahamas barely maintaining investment grade status, one notch above so-called junk - said only Vietnam and Suriname faced more severe economic consequences in a worst-case sea level rise scenario.
The Moodys report, published as the Bahamas Business Outlook conference focused on resiliency in the face of climate change and natural disasters, disclosed projections that a one-metre sea level rise would submerge 11.6 percent of this nations total land mass.
This, in turn, would endanger 4.7 percent of annual economic output (Gross Domestic Product), given the tourism industrys reliance on coastal sites, and 4.6 percent of the Bahamian population. However, the impact is much more extensive should sea levels rise three metres, as this would swallow 31 percent - or almost one-third - of all land in The Bahamas.
And the threat to the economy would also be three times greater, with 14.5 percent of GDP in jeopardy, along with the lives of 10.5 percent of the Bahamian people.
Different studies yield similar results, Moodys warned. Countries including Vietnam, The Bahamas, Egypt, Suriname and some in the Gulf are highlighted, with up to ten percent to 25 percent of the population or GDP exposed.
The greatest inundation by proportion of land area would be in The Bahamas, followed by Vietnam and Qatar.... Taking a broader view of exposure by combining several indicators (GDP, population, land area, agricultural area, degree of urbanisation, wetlands), Vietnam, Egypt, Suriname and the Bahamas feature among the most exposed countries.
In a scenario where sea level rise reaches three metres, Vietnam and Suriname are also the most exposed countries by economic output, followed by Benin and The Bahamas. Other studies researched by Moodys show that 100 percent of The Bahamas would be vulnerable to flooding and/or be submerged should sea levels rise by five metres.
And Climate Centrals 2015 research estimated that two-thirds of the Bahamian population would be affected should a locked-in sea level rise occur under a scenario where global temperatures increased on average by 3 degrees Celsius.
If temperatures were to rise by three degrees Celsius (C), affected rated sovereigns would include Cayman Islands with 83 percent of the population submerged, Suriname (81 percent) and The Bahamas (67 percent), Moodys added.
If warming were limited to two degrees Celsius, the most affected sovereigns would be similar, but the share of population below sea level would reduce by 2-18 percentage points.
The Bahamas has already felt the brunt of climate change through Hurricane Dorian, which inflicted $3.4bn in losses and damage on Abaco and Grand Bahama, while also derailing the Governments fiscal consolidation plan for at least three years by driving this years projected deficit to $677.5m and the national debt to $9.5bn over the medium term.
Moodys reiterated that The Bahamas was especially vulnerable due to its reliance on tourism for at least 40 percent of annual GDP, as most of the plant and infrastructure for its largest industry and economic engine are located on the coast.
Over time, coastal erosion or concerns about natural disasters may make some regions less attractive to tourists, Moodys warned. For a number of small-island sovereigns, such as The Bahamas, Belize, Fiji or Maldives, tourism is a driver of economic activity, and a major source of export revenue and foreign exchange.
Permanently lower growth may weaken a governments fiscal strength. Moreover, government compensation for lost income through higher spending or tax moratoria would widen budget deficits and raise debt. Among the sovereigns exposed to sea level rise, fiscal strength is particularly weak in Egypt, The Bahamas, Belize, Suriname and Tunisia.
While tourist inflows generally recover following natural disasters, the recovery period varies, and can be longer in the aftermath of more extreme events. In The Bahamas, storms or hurricanes have not hit key tourist destinations recently [apart from Abaco], but Hurricane Matthew in 2016 resulted in a slowdown in tourist inflows to Grand Bahama, which are yet to recover to pre-2016 levels.
Moodys also indicated that The Bahamas efforts to counter this threat to-date have been less than impressive, adding: In The Bahamas, a regulatory framework is in place to curb the effects of sea level rise. However, a lack of co-ordination among institutions and a high degree of private ownership of coastal lands hamper these efforts.
Sea level rise and related shocks pose material credit risk to Vietnam, Egypt, Suriname, The Bahamas and other small island sovereigns, including Maldives and Fiji. The pace of increase in the frequency and severity of natural disasters related to sea level rise and the effectiveness of adaptation measures will determine the extent of the credit constraints that these sovereigns face.
Detailing the economic and social consequences of not acting, Moodys added: The economic and social repercussions of lost income, damage to assets, loss of life, health issues and forced migration from the sudden events related to sea level rise are immediate. The main credit channels for sovereigns are economic and fiscal strength.
Vulnerability to extreme events related to sea level rise can also undermine investment, and heighten susceptibility to event risk, by hindering the ability of governments to borrow to rebuild, increasing losses for banks, raising external pressures, and/or amplifying political risk as populations come under stress. While one isolated shock related to sea level rise is unlikely to materially weaken a sovereigns credit profile, repeated shocks could do.
Go here to see the original:
Sea level rise threat to 15% of Bahamas' GDP - Bahamas Tribune
- Bahamas Vacation Packages & Travel Deals - Atlantis - December 9th, 2016 [December 9th, 2016]
- Bahamas: Maps, History, Geography, Government, Culture ... - December 12th, 2016 [December 12th, 2016]
- Nassau Paradise Island, Bahamas Where to Stay - December 22nd, 2016 [December 22nd, 2016]
- Bahamas Vacation Packages & Travel Deals | BookIt.com - December 22nd, 2016 [December 22nd, 2016]
- All-Inclusive Hotels & Resorts, Nassau Paradise Island - January 15th, 2017 [January 15th, 2017]
- Bahamas - The New York Times - February 5th, 2017 [February 5th, 2017]
- The Official UK website, The Island of The Bahamas | The ... - February 5th, 2017 [February 5th, 2017]
- No Elections Just Yet, Bahamas Prime Minister Says | Caribbean360 - Caribbean360.com (subscription) - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Survival in the Bahamas - Lifestyle - The Daily Herald - Columbia, TN - Columbia Daily Herald - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- CHTA Donates $25000 for Bahamas hurricane relief - Yahoo Finance - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Miami hosting Venezuela-Bahamas Davis Cup tie - Tennis Magazine - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Venezuela plays Bahamas in "home" Davis Cup matches in Doral ... - Miami Herald - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Bahamas tops Caribbean on crime's economic cost | The Tribune - Bahamas Tribune - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Bahamas Victory Could Propel Lincicome to 2017 Solheim Cup - LPGA (press release) - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Lupus Bahamas releases new 'Lupus and the Kidneys' Educational Pamphlet - The Freeport News - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Volunteers 'Good To Go' For Iaaf World Relays Bahamas - Bahamas Tribune - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- In the Bahamas, the Art of Conch - Caribbean Journal - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Doug Manchester to be Bahama Papa for US? - San Diego Reader - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Conference USA helps Old Dominion make money on Bahamas Bowl trip - Daily Press - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- SaskTel beaches employees in the Bahamas - News Talk 650 CKOM - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Travel Deals - Official Nassau Paradise Island, Bahamas ... - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Cruise Liner pulls out of Bahamas for Cuba - Jamaica Observer - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Ancient Tropical Tortoise Found in a Deep Blue Sinkhole in the Bahamas - Seeker - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- In A Growing Trend, Norwegian Cruise Lines Drops Bahamas In Favor Of Cuba - Cuba Journal - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- Cruise Line Drops 25 Bahamas Sailings - Cruise Radio (blog) - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- Bloody weekend in Bahamas, Opposition calls for Gov't to break silence - Jamaica Observer - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Nassau, Bahamas: Where to eat, dive and lay out on the sand - amNY - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Greenslade: Bahamas Is Not In Crisis - Bahamas Tribune - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- The Oshies, Alzners, and Winniks are vacationing together in the Bahamas - Russian Machine Never Breaks - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- Caps players and families have 'best Valentine's Day ever' in the Bahamas - Russian Machine Never Breaks - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- Search called off for Georgia man who went overboard in Bahamas - 11alive.com - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- IXE Bahamas Bank Bid Crashes - finews.com - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Authorities Blame Gangs for the Bahamas' Bloody Start to 2017 - Insightcrime.org - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Official Launch Of 'Team Bahamas' Carifta Movement - Bahamas Tribune - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- Will Klay Thompson Wear The Anta KT 2 Bahamas During NBA All ... - KicksOnFire.com - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- Hefty 13ft tiger shark is a local record-breaker in the Bahamas - Earth Touch - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Hendrix students travel to Bahamas for mission trip - Log Cabin Democrat - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Silver Airways adds more non-stop flights to the Bahamas - WFLA - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Bahamas' 'Growth Potential' Down 3% Since Century Start - Bahamas Tribune - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- Imf Bahamas Chief Supports Fiscal Limits - Bahamas Tribune - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- Tough Approach on Tax Arrears Pays Off For Bahamas Government - Caribbean360.com (subscription) - February 21st, 2017 [February 21st, 2017]
- Privy Council Has Fourth Sitting In The Bahamas - The Bahama Journal - February 21st, 2017 [February 21st, 2017]
- Bahamas Well Represented at NY Times and Boston Globe Travel Shows - South Florida Caribbean News - February 21st, 2017 [February 21st, 2017]
- Take the Unlikely Plunge into the Beautiful Waters of The Bahamas - TravelPulse (blog) - February 21st, 2017 [February 21st, 2017]
- Bahamas Tops Guyana 4-1 At Concacaf Beach Soccer - Bahamas Tribune - February 22nd, 2017 [February 22nd, 2017]
- Widely Adored Swimming Pigs Found Dead in the Bahamas - Travel+Leisure - February 22nd, 2017 [February 22nd, 2017]
- Bahamas famous swimming pigs found dead in ocean - only seven or eight left - News24 - February 23rd, 2017 [February 23rd, 2017]
- Swimming with pigs in the Bahamas could soon be a thing of the past as only seven of them are still alive - The Sun - February 23rd, 2017 [February 23rd, 2017]
- Robocall scheme that sold Bahamas cruises is in permanent dry dock - MyPalmBeachPost (blog) - February 23rd, 2017 [February 23rd, 2017]
- Bahamas Gets 3-0 Win Over Belize - Bahamas Tribune - February 23rd, 2017 [February 23rd, 2017]
- Three Straight: Lesly St Fleur Scores Hat Trick As Bahamas Beats Jamaica 3-2 - Bahamas Tribune - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]
- The Famous Pigs From The Bachelor Island Date Are Dying - Refinery29 - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]
- Bank fees also under the radar in The Bahamas - Jamaica Gleaner - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]
- 20 Best Resorts in the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Turks & Caicos - Cond Nast Traveler - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]
- Moody'S: Bahamas Deficit Will Exceed $300m This Year - Bahamas Tribune - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]
- Bahamas Face Guadeloupe In Beach Soccer Quarter-Finals On Friday Night - Bahamas Tribune - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]
- Beloved Swimming Pigs Of The Bahamas Found Dead - Huffington Post - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]
- Bahamas Must 'Buffer' Against Deficit Blow-Out - Bahamas Tribune - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]
- Guadeloupe End Bahamas Hopes Of Progress In Beach Soccer Championship - Bahamas Tribune - February 25th, 2017 [February 25th, 2017]
- Caribbean Hotel And Tourism Assoc. Helps Hurricane-Affected Haiti & The Bahamas - South Florida Caribbean News - February 25th, 2017 [February 25th, 2017]
- AG warning about 'Bahamas Grandkids Scam' - Artesia Daily Press - February 25th, 2017 [February 25th, 2017]
- Junior golfers fare well at Bahamas tournament - Cayman Compass - February 27th, 2017 [February 27th, 2017]
- Bahamas face US in fifth place playoff after beating Trinidad | The ... - Bahamas Tribune - February 27th, 2017 [February 27th, 2017]
- Swimming pigs of the Exuma Cays, Bahama's killed and tourists are ... - Metro - February 27th, 2017 [February 27th, 2017]
- Bahamas Grateful To Support From Missionary Flights International - South Florida Caribbean News - February 28th, 2017 [February 28th, 2017]
- The Bahamas Private Developers vs. Government Run - Albany Times Union (blog) - February 28th, 2017 [February 28th, 2017]
- Amnesty Int'l critical of Jamaica, Haiti, The Bahamas - News ... - Jamaica Observer - February 28th, 2017 [February 28th, 2017]
- Bahamas Suffers 4-2 Loss To Usa - Bahamas Tribune - February 28th, 2017 [February 28th, 2017]
- PRESS RELEASE: Dan Marino And Friends Bahamas Weekend 2017 Planned For May 25-27 - MiamiDolphins - February 28th, 2017 [February 28th, 2017]
- In the Bahamas, Sharks Are Worth More Alive than Dead - Hakai Magazine - February 28th, 2017 [February 28th, 2017]
- Amnesty Int'l critical of Jamaica, Haiti, The Bahamas - NYCaribNews - March 1st, 2017 [March 1st, 2017]
- Several of the Bahamas' Beloved Swimming Pigs Found Dead - TownandCountrymag.com (blog) - March 1st, 2017 [March 1st, 2017]
- Bahamas famous swimming pigs dead from possible tourist feeding - MyStatesman.com - March 1st, 2017 [March 1st, 2017]
- Rosewood Baha Mar in Nassau, Bahamas to open in 2018 | Rus ... - RusTourismNews - March 2nd, 2017 [March 2nd, 2017]
- Tourists may have killed Bahamas' famous swimming pigs - New York Post - March 2nd, 2017 [March 2nd, 2017]
- DNA Party: PM Offers More Harm Than Good In Office - The Bahama Journal - March 2nd, 2017 [March 2nd, 2017]
- Famous Swimming Pigs in the Bahamas Found Dead After Tourists Give Them Alcohol - Cosmopolitan.com - March 2nd, 2017 [March 2nd, 2017]
- Mysterious wave of death strikes the Bahamas' famous swimming pigs - Washington Post - March 3rd, 2017 [March 3rd, 2017]
- IAAF World Relays Bahamas 2017 set to be biggest one yet - International Association of Athletics Federations - March 3rd, 2017 [March 3rd, 2017]
- Bahamas PM Apologizes For Flipping Bird, Saying He Lost Control While Defending Family - Caribbean360.com (subscription) - March 4th, 2017 [March 4th, 2017]