The global travel and tourism industry is fighting for survival. The longer the fight, the more difficult it gets. PATA today released estimated numbers of recovery for 2021/2022/2023 with three scenarios.

In 2023 the North America, the Caribbean and South America could welcome 96.5% of all international visitors back compared to 2019. In 2022 this number could be 61.3% and 27.7% this year. This is a dream scenario released by the Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) today.

A more realistic picture is the medium scenario with 77.3% of international visitors back in 2023, 47% back in 2002, and only 19.1% this year.

Depending on the development with Coronavirus a more severe number would estimate 54.7 % back in 2023, 47% 32.3% in 2022 and 14.3% this year in 2021.This is according to thefull report of theAsia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2021-2023released today by thePacific Asia Travel Association(PATA), where three growth prospects for international visitors into and across 39 Asia Pacific destinations are made, covering mild, medium and severe scenarios.

The Americas is in a somewhat similar situation, however, as the 2023 proportion of IVAs relative to that of 2019 is still expected to fall short under the mild scenario although only by a minimal margin.

Asia, known as a powerhouse for international arrivals into and across the Asia Pacific region will experience similar figures to what is expected for the Americas under the mild scenario. However, the medium and severe scenarios could fall back even further. In the latter scenario for example, the report projects that IVAs into and across Asia Pacific could fall back to less than half of the 2019 volume by 2023.

Under the medium scenario, more destination sub-regions are expected to fall into further decline in 2021 relative to 2019, before turning to some tentative recovery in 2022 and 2023.

In addition, this group of the top five destinations becomes more significant in relative terms, in 2021 at least, as the scenarios change from mild to medium and then to severe.

Over the longer period, the top five source region and destination pairs by volume increase between 2020 and 2023, are expected to remain in the same rank order under all three of the scenarios although the increase in the absolute number of foreign arrivals obviously changes.

PATA CEO Dr Mario Hardy stated, Calendar year 2021 is likely to be difficult for most destinations, with almost 40% of the 39 destinations covered in these forecasts falling even further from the low point of arrival numbers in 2020, even under the mild scenario. In the case of the medium scenario, that proportion is likely to increase to 85% while under the severe scenario it could well be the case for all 39 destinations.

Clearly, a further round of belt-tightening will be needed in the international sector, with more innovation being required in developing what is available in the domestic sector, he added.

Dr Hardy concluded by reminding the travel sector that, Vaccines are becoming more freely available and inoculations are proceeding rapidly, but even so, and while first results are very encouraging, their effectiveness over a wider proportion of the population has yet to be fully demonstrated. It is very likely that travellers in the future will have to carry proof of inoculation and being COVID-19 free, something that various agencies and airlines have been developing and is already trialling. Whatever the outcome, travel will never be the same again and we have no choice but to adjust and adapt to that.

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International Tourism back to 48%, 74% or 96% in 2023? - eTurboNews | Trends | Travel News