In the fall of 2019, Google told the world it had reached quantum supremacy.
It was a significant scientific milestone that some compared to the first flight at Kitty Hawk. Harnessing the mysterious powers of quantum mechanics, Google had built a computer that needed only three minutes and 20 seconds to perform a calculation that normal computers couldnt complete in 10,000 years.
But more than two years after Googles announcement, the world is still waiting for a quantum computer that actually does something useful. And it will most likely wait much longer. The world is also waiting for self-driving cars, flying cars, advanced artificial intelligence and brain implants that will let you control your computing devices using nothing but your thoughts.
Silicon Valleys hype machine has long been accused of churning ahead of reality. But in recent years, the tech industrys critics have noticed that its biggest promises the ideas that really could change the world seem further and further on the horizon. The great wealth generated by the industry in recent years has generally been thanks to ideas, like the iPhone and mobile apps, that arrived years ago.
Have the big thinkers of tech lost their mojo?
The answer, those big thinkers are quick to respond, is absolutely not. But the projects they are tackling are far more difficult than building a new app or disrupting another aging industry. And if you look around, the tools that have helped you cope with almost two years of a pandemic the home computers, the videoconferencing services and Wi-Fi, even the technology that aided researchers in the development of vaccines have shown the industry hasnt exactly lost a step.
Imagine the economic impact of the pandemic had there not been the infrastructure the hardware and the software that allowed so many white-collar workers to work from home and so many other parts of the economy to be conducted in a digitally mediated way, said Margaret OMara, a professor at the University of Washington who specializes in the history of Silicon Valley.
As for the next big thing, the big thinkers say, give it time. Take quantum computing. Jake Taylor, who oversaw quantum computing efforts for the White House and is now chief science officer at the quantum start-up Riverlane, said building a quantum computer might be the most difficult task ever undertaken. This is a machine that defies the physics of everyday life.
A quantum computer relies on the strange ways that some objects behave at the subatomic level or when exposed to extreme cold, like metal chilled to nearly 460 degrees below zero. If scientists merely try to read information from these quantum systems, they tend to break.
While building a quantum computer, Dr. Taylor said, you are constantly working against the fundamental tendency of nature.
The most important tech advances of the past few decades the microchip, the internet, the mouse-driven computer, the smartphone were not defying physics. And they were allowed to gestate for years, even decades, inside government agencies and corporate research labs before ultimately reaching mass adoption.
The age of mobile and cloud computing has created so many new business opportunities, Dr. OMara said. But now there are trickier problems.
Still, the loudest voices in Silicon Valley often discuss those trickier problems as if they were just another smartphone app. That can inflate expectations.
People who arent experts who understand the challenges may have been misled by the hype, said Raquel Urtasun, a University of Toronto professor who helped oversee the development of self-driving cars at Uber and is now chief executive of the self-driving start-up Waabi.
Technologies like self-driving cars and artificial intelligence do not face the same physical obstacles as quantum computing. But just as researchers do not yet know how to build a viable quantum computer, they do not yet know how to design a car that can safely drive itself in any situation or a machine that can do anything the human brain can do.
Even a technology like augmented reality eyeglasses that can layer digital images onto what you see in the real world will require years of additional research and engineering before it is perfected.
Andrew Bosworth, vice president at Meta, formerly Facebook, said that building these lightweight eyeglasses was akin to creating the first mouse-driven personal computers in the 1970s (the mouse itself was invented in 1964). Companies like Meta must design an entirely new way of using computers, before stuffing all its pieces into a tiny package.
Over the past two decades, companies like Facebook have built and deployed new technologies at a speed that never seemed possible before. But as Mr. Bosworth said, these were predominantly software technologies built solely with bits pieces of digital information.
Building new kinds of hardware working with physical atoms is a far more difficult task. As an industry, we have almost forgotten what this is like, Mr. Bosworth said, calling the creation of augmented reality glasses a once-in-a-lifetime project.
Technologists like Mr. Bosworth believe they will eventually overcome those obstacles and they are more open about how difficult it will be. But thats not always the case. And when an industry has seeped into every part of daily life, it can be hard to separate hand-waving from realism especially when it is huge companies like Google and well-known personalities like Elon Musk drawing that attention.
Many in Silicon Valley believe that hand-waving is an important part of pushing technologies into the mainstream. The hype helps attract the money and the talent and the belief needed to build the technology.
If the outcome is desirable and it is technically possible then its OK if were off by three years or five years or whatever, said Aaron Levie, chief executive of the Silicon Valley company Box. You want entrepreneurs to be optimistic to have a little bit of that Steve Jobs reality-distortion field, which helped to persuade people to buy into his big ideas.
The hype is also a way for entrepreneurs to generate interest among the public. Even if new technologies can be built, there is no guarantee that people and businesses will want them and adopt them and pay for them. They need coaxing. And maybe more patience than most people inside and outside the tech industry will admit.
When we hear about a new technology, it takes less than 10 minutes for our brains to imagine what it can do. We instantly compress all of the compounding infrastructure and innovation needed to get to that point, Mr. Levie said. That is the cognitive dissonance we are dealing with.
Read the original post:
Why Is Silicon Valley Still Waiting for the Next Big Thing? - The New York Times
- Technology Synonyms, Technology Antonyms | Thesaurus.com - January 7th, 2017 [January 7th, 2017]
- Information technology - Wikipedia - January 7th, 2017 [January 7th, 2017]
- Technology and Electronics Reviews - USATODAY.com - January 7th, 2017 [January 7th, 2017]
- Technology Forum - reddit.com - January 7th, 2017 [January 7th, 2017]
- Technology: Industries: PwC - January 22nd, 2017 [January 22nd, 2017]
- National Education Technology Plan - Office of Educational ... - January 22nd, 2017 [January 22nd, 2017]
- Technology News - The New York Times - January 24th, 2017 [January 24th, 2017]
- Computer Business Review - Computer Business Review - January 24th, 2017 [January 24th, 2017]
- Technology - Pogue's Posts Blog - The New York Times - February 2nd, 2017 [February 2nd, 2017]
- What the Tech: Neuro-Bio Monitor Technology - KFDX - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Globalization failed too many people. Here's the technology that could help it work for everyone - Quartz - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Bill Nye forecasts next 50 years, says we're at a technological crossroad - Digital Trends - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Interview with Matt Nix about his new Fox show APB. - Slate - Slate Magazine - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- In This Year's Super Bowl Of Technology, Intel Led The Way With A Sky Full Of Drones - Forbes - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Learning From Last Year: Technology Funding Outlooks For 2017 - Forbes - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Ossia hires new CEO to help commercialize its wireless charging technology - GeekWire - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Microsoft's AI group debuts customizable speech-to-text technology, rapidly expanding 'cognitive services' for ... - GeekWire - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- A flare for self-destruction: How technology is the means, not the cause, of our demise - National Post - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Broadcaster dangles new technology for Winter Olympics - Reuters - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- These Four Black Women Inventors Reimagined the Technology of the Home - Smithsonian - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- How 3D and Self-Design Will Change Technology - Huffington Post - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Factory Boss Says Fishing Technology Could Improve Controversial US Border Wall - Voice of America - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- Republicans Aim to Kill Election Technology Standards Agency - Gizmodo - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- Solutions replace technology as the focus at ISE 2017 - Installation International - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- Five Rules That Define The Technology Innovator - Forbes - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- Three Ways That Digital Technology Can Help Chemical Producers - Forbes - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- Cinematographers Deploy Innovative Technology to Create Better Images - Variety - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- How Technology Transforms Dreamers Into Economic Powerhouses - Forbes - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- Coming technology will likely destroy millions of jobs. Is Trump ready? - Washington Post - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- Mysterious $5 Billion Biotech Moderna Hit With Legal Setback Related To Key Technology - Forbes - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Berlinale: Jury Talks Up Art But Politics and Technology Enter Discussion - Variety - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Opinion: Harry Boxer's stocks to watch: biotechnology and technology - MarketWatch - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Nasdaq plans venture arm to invest in financial technology: sources - Reuters - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- A modern-day Rosie the Riveter campaign: Women in technology - The Hill (blog) - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- A growing concern: Technology and transportation - Florida Today - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Top 10 Mobility Technologies Market by Technology & Geography - Global Forecast to 2022 - Yahoo Finance - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Volvo melds technology and luxury in the XC90 T8 hybrid - Engadget - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- CEFC warns against risky investment in 'clean coal' technology - The Guardian - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Scientist calls for industrial scale-up of greenhouse gas-eating microbe technology in UK - Phys.Org - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Software company introduces game-changing technology for Michigan Realtors - HousingWire - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- New laser technology enables more sensitive gravitational-wave detectors - Phys.Org - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Why Quotient Technology Inc. Stock Surged 21% Higher on Friday - Fox Business - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- How Technology Is Improving Influencer Marketing (And Can Help Improve Your Brand) - Forbes - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Hands-on: EVGA's sensor-laden iCX technology revolutionizes ... - PCWorld - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- New Ground Technology uses digital graphics on turf - Golf Channel - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- Facing State System review, Cal U to emphasize science and technology - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- International Game Technology: A Lottery Bet That's Paying Off - Barron's - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- Our seas have become a plastic graveyard - but can technology turn the tide? - Telegraph.co.uk - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- Technology identifying fastest checkout lanes comes to metro - KCCI Des Moines - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- This Technology Could Be a Game-Changer for the Marijuana Industry - Fox Business - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- Editorial: Higher education and technology are job creators, so why is the governor cutting their funding? - STLtoday.com - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- BLAEDC: Entrepreneurs find a technology-friendly home in the Brainerd lakes area - Brainerd Dispatch - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- Small cell technology is large endeavor for state - Crain's Cleveland Business - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- Eye tracking technology will change these 4 domains - The Next Web - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- The technology fixing Britain's parking problem - The Independent - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- Tim Cook: Augmented Reality is as big of a technology as the smartphone - BGR - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- How technology is encouraging society to be stupid - The Next Web - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- IBM Adds Voice Help to Cybercrime-Fighting Watson-Powered Weaponry - Campus Technology - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Market Higher As 4 Key Steel, Technology Stocks Top Buy Points - Investor's Business Daily - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- A look at North Korea's missile launches and technology - ABC News - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- The CFO Imperative: Next-Gen Technology Drives Cost Optimization - Knowledge@Wharton - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Technology puts 'touch' into long-distance relationships - Phys.Org - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- A New Angel Investing Platform Connects Deep Technology And Science Startups With Capital - Forbes - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Formula 1 now capable of 'internet' broadcasts with new technology - autosport.com - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- How dangerous is technology? - OUPblog (blog) - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- Apple's Eddy Cue says technology companies have a responsibility to combat fake news - Recode - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- Valentine's day: what's your secret technology crush? - Naked Security - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- Parents and technology How much is too much? - WGBA-TV - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- Is Magic Leap Lying About Its Acid Trip Technology? - Vanity Fair - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- BYU-Idaho dedicates and showcases new Science and Technology Center - LocalNews8.com - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- Even Indian technology entrepreneurs think they are living in a ... - Quartz - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- 3 tips for regulating our kids' technology use - The Herald-Times (subscription) - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- Don Cunningham column: Technology giveth, and it taketh away - Allentown Morning Call - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- Warren Buffett's Increasing Passion For Apple And Technology - Forbes - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- DNA technology gives new face to decade-old cold case - The San Diego Union-Tribune - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- Can Technology Really Solve China's Healthcare Crisis? - Forbes - Forbes - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- Emerging technology is keyword: Demand for experts in robotics & big data up 50% - Economic Times - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Five technologies that will change how we live - Financial Times - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Football League agrees to use goalline technology in Championship - The Guardian - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Telecom operators navigate three technology transformation options - TechTarget - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]