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10 Amazing Tips to Get the Best out of TikTok Mobile App – Dignited

Posted on May 3, 2020 by Danzig

Presently, TikTok is one of the worlds fastest-growing social media platforms.According to DataReportal 2020 statistics, it has 800 million active users compared to other social network sites. For better context, one out of five smartphone user has a TikTok app installed in their devices.

This has made the app a tool for celebrity entertainment artists and upcoming artists to promote their content, become famous, and increase fan base as fast as possible.

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Essentially, the app is popular for making short videos, lip-syncing, dance videos, comedy skit, series, singing, and memes. In fact, the app has been instrumental in making several music tracks and skit viral.

Hence, it has become highly recommended for any passionate individual with a skill they intend to promote. In the section below, we talk about 10 amazing tips to make the best out of TikTok.

Your Tik Tok profile speaks volume.It can either attract an audience to your page or discourage them. Be intentional about creating your profile; from your choice of user name, profile picture, and content description. The aim should be to leave a remarkable impression on anyone that checks your profile. Make sure your username is not unnecessarily long and should easy to remember.

Also, briefly describe the kind of videos you would be entertaining your audience. For instance, if you say youre a skilled humorist, your viewers would expect to see funny videos. And if you say youre a dancer, your audience would want to see a lot of dance videos. It would be disappointing if your content falls short of your viewers expectation; you might lose reliability and followers.

To do this, simply tap the profile button in the bottom-right corner of the screen to input your TikTok bio.

The online community is quick to identify and criticize any trace of bad spelling and grammar which could go a long way in influencing their perception about your brand and your person.Bad grammar is a killjoy that can damage your integrity so do well to avoid it totally.

Except you intend to communicate using an indigenous language, memes, or popular slangs, make sure your mode of communication is clear and error-free. Your viewers expect that much from you.

Flawless spelling/grammar on TikTok is like icing on the cake, so ensure to run your sentences through a grammar checker before you use them. It creates a deeper connection with your audience as well as creates a lasting impact on your community.

In the TikTok community, your creativity jacket must always be on because your audience anticipates new content and fresh ideas on a consistent basis.

Your creativity puts you on the top trend on TikTok and even increases your chances of success. Owing to the fact that the majority of TikTok users are in their teens, you need to think outside the box while you creatively create content with their preference in mind.

Showcase your artistic skills and make it easy for anyone to relate to it and maybe create a challenge out of it so that it can trend to your advantage.

Feel free to adopt some tools and unique features from other social channels while using your TikTok.

Never let your viewers forget you online.With that in mind, post rich content as often as you can. Uploading at least one compelling and fantastic video daily is a good start.

You may as well include series in your posting schedule, it would definitely help your brand gain more patronage and followers.Since your audience, know what to expect and when to expect it

In addition, it gives you adequate time to create better contents and save your time online as well.

Hashtags are a vital social engagement tool that has already become an indispensable feature. Do you want to make your video trend? Add hashtags to your videos.

Just as hashtags are popular with other social channels like Twitter, Instagram, and Pinterest and Facebook, TikTok hashtags is equally essential for digital interactions and viewing.

Come up with creative hashtags or use the TikTok hashtag generator and include them to spice your content.It makes your content easily discovered and increases its chances of trending with a wider audience.

This is especially important for upcoming music artist.

It is not a secret that the app is called TikTok because youve got just 60 seconds of fame and you have to make the best use of it. To do this, make sure you add the right music track that fits your video and your audience cant resist.

The secret is the best track on TikTok is one that has superb lyrics, danceable, melodious, or funny that your viewers can engage with and even lip sync. If the track is appealing, your viewers would be looking forward to downloading the full song and video.

Frequently use the TikTok duet feature the best you can.

It is always a win-win situation if you choose to accommodate a duet with an influencer, fellow TikTok user and even using the Interactive features.

Not only does it spice up your content, but it also helps you create something unique that would grow your fan base. Dont be afraid to try it and put your best on it.

Sometimes, you need to create the avenue for your fan to do the talking for you by sharing and reposting your content. There is no rule that says what is posted on TikTok is restricted to TikTok. Dont hold back on clicking the share button on TikTok to share your content to other social channels.

That way, your videos would go viral across platforms and be promoted too.

One amazing feature of the Tik Tok app is the ability to feed users with the latest trend. That way, TikTok users informed on what current happenings, that way you can use it as an avenue to promote yourself.

The latest trends also serve as a guild in helping you identify strategic content that can boost your brand and increase your visibility.

TikTok community has a knack for identifying fakeness. Dont imitate or copy what other creators are uploading. There is an added value to being original; just be yourself. Create and upload content that displays innovative skills anyone would enjoy viewing.

To sum it all, TikTok mobile app is the right platform if youre considering showcasing your skill to the world. In the same way, it ushers you into a world of limitless entertainment.

10 Amazing Tips to Get the Best out of TikTok Mobile App - Dignited

A flood of bankruptcies likely in months ahead – GoErie.com

Posted on May 3, 2020 by Danzig

The most vulnerable companies include the thousands of restaurants and retailers that shut down, many of them more than a month ago.

The billions of dollars in coronavirus relief targeted at small businesses may not prevent many of them from ending up in bankruptcy court.

Business filings under Chapter 11 of the federal bankruptcy law rose sharply in March, and attorneys who work with struggling companies are seeing signs that more owners are contemplating the possibility of bankruptcy.

Companies forced to close or curtail business due to government attempts to stop the virus's spread have mounting debts and uncertain prospects for returning to normal operations. Even those owners receiving emergency loans and grants aren't sure that help will be enough.

The most vulnerable companies include the thousands of restaurants and retailers that shut down, many of them more than a month ago. Some restaurants have managed to bring in a bit of revenue by serving meals for takeout and delivery, but even they are struggling financially. Small and independent retailers, including those with online stores. are similarly at risk; clothing retailers have the added problem of winter inventory that they are unlikely to sell with spring here and summer approaching.

Independent oil companies whose revenue was slammed by the collapse in energy prices also are strapped, as are other companies that were already burdened with high debt levels before the virus struck.

Jennifer Bennett, who closed one of her San Francisco restaurants on Wednesday, was still waiting for the financial aid she sought from the federal, state and city governments. Even with the money, she doesnt know if the revenue will cover the bills when shes finally able to reopen Zazie especially if shes required to space tables six feet apart for social distancing.

Our occupancy is going to be cut 60 percent to 65 percent, Bennett says. I fear bankruptcy is a possibility.

Other small companies have similar anxieties, says Paul Singerman, a bankruptcy attorney with Berger Singerman in Miami.

There is no reliable visibility into when business operations will be able to resume the pre-COVID normal, Singerman says.

Even larger companies are in trouble, including already struggling retailers who had to shut their stores.

The jeans company True Religion filed for Chapter 11 earlier this month, saying extended closures of its stores in the pandemic have hurt its business. Recent reports say department store chains Neiman Marcus and J.C. Penney, which has struggled for years with slumping sales, could soon file for bankruptcy protection.

The number of Chapter 11 filings rose 18 percent in March from a year earlier, a dramatic swing from the 20 percent decrease in February, according to the American Bankruptcy Institute, a trade organization for attorneys and other professionals involved in bankruptcy proceedings. The numbers dont break out filings by company size, but given that the vast majority of companies are small to mid-size, it does give an indication that smaller companies are struggling.

The federal government has already approved or given out more than 2 million loans and grants to small businesses totaling nearly $360 billion; another $310 billion is on the way to one of the programs. Still, the money may be at best a stopgap for companies with little to no revenue coming in. And the new funds are expected to go so quickly that thousands of owners wont get loans.

Theres no way to predict how many companies will file for bankruptcy. There were over 160,000 bankruptcy filings from 2008 to 2010, during the Great Recession and its aftermath, according to statistics compiled by the federal court system. The numbers dont break out filings by company size. The majority were for liquidations. although some companies restructured their debt and continued operating under Chapter 11.

Many companies, however, just shut their doors, and thats likely to be the case again, Singerman says. According to some estimates, 170,000 companies failed during the recession.

But the Small Business Reorganization Act, which took effect in February, may encourage more companies to seek Chapter 11. The law is aimed at allowing owners to retain their ownership rather than lose their companies to their creditors; that is generally what happens in Chapter 11. The law also streamlines the reorganization process so a company is not wiped out by attorneys fees, said Edward Janger, a professor at Brooklyn Law School in New York whose expertise includes bankruptcy law.

Another change under the law is that a bankruptcy judge can approve the reorganization over creditors objections, Janger says.

Business owners will try to avoid bankruptcy by seeking leniency from landlords, lenders and vendors, bankruptcy attorney David Wander says. But with their companies financial troubles beyond their control because of the virus outbreak, many will file for Chapter 11 because the stigma that bankruptcy has long held will be gone, said Wander, a partner at Davidoff Hutcher & Citron in New York.

The tsunami is going to happen in the coming months and its going to be ongoing, Wander said.

A flood of bankruptcies likely in months ahead - GoErie.com

What effect will COVID-19 have on consumer bankruptcies? – University of Illinois News

Posted on May 3, 2020 by Danzig

Editors note: In an interview with News Bureau business and law editor Phil Ciciora, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign law professor Robert M. Lawless, a leading consumer credit and bankruptcy expert, discusses the potential for a surge in consumer bankruptcy filings due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Are we likely to see a rash of consumer bankruptcies in the U.S. due to the COVID-19 pandemic?

Its hard to say whats going to happen. Most everyone expects consumer bankruptcies to increase, and I think thats probably right. The question is what the shape of the curve will look like. Will it be a gradual and steady increase, or will it be a sharp spike?

I doubt there will be a surge in consumer bankruptcy filings in the next few months. There is a foreclosure moratorium on all federally backed mortgages, which are two-thirds to three-quarters of all mortgages. Student loan collections have stopped. There is a lot of support for state moratoriums on debt collections and rent evictions. All of these initiatives will reduce the immediate pressure for people to declare bankruptcy.

In the long run, more people will file bankruptcy as their financial problems accumulate. One thing we know from our research is that most people say they struggled financially for two to five years before filing bankruptcy. Most people wait and try to weather the financial storm before filing. Also, it makes little sense to file bankruptcy if debts are only going to continue accumulating even after you file. For these reasons, it may be after economic recovery when we start seeing a surge in bankruptcy filings.

One thing to keep in mind: Its important to distinguish between bankruptcy and being financially distressed. Just because we dont see an increase in bankruptcies doesnt necessarily mean that everyone is doing fine. People can be hurting financially and not end up in bankruptcy court.

Are there any parallels or lessons to be learned from how bankruptcies were handled during the Great Recession?

Historically, increases in bankruptcies havent always coincided with recessions. For example, the high-water mark in the U.S. for bankruptcy filings was in the late 1990s when the economy was booming.

When you think about the current situation, its just so unprecedented. Theres no past analog that we can look to as a model for how the consumer bankruptcy system is going to be affected. The financial devastation of the Great Depression unfolded over many years. The closest precedent is the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918, but the consumer credit system didnt exist then like it does today. When it comes to making predictions about consumer debt and the pandemic, there is no historical precedent on which to draw.

Is the consumer bankruptcy system as currently constructed ready to potentially handle an influx of new filings?

Among bankruptcy professionals, there certainly has been discussion about gearing up for a surge in consumer bankruptcies, but again, we just dont know the timeline for when we might see this surge. Also, there is a lot of slack in the consumer bankruptcy system right now in terms of capacity. Before the pandemic, we were at historically low levels of bankruptcy filings, suggesting there is capacity in courtrooms and law offices to add cases.

The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act will provide many Americans with a one-time cash payment to help cover household expenses i.e., rent, food, utility bills. How will these stimulus payments affect debtors going through the bankruptcy process? Can they be seized?

Yes, the funds can be seized. The CARES Act itself has no protections for stimulus payments from creditors. If there is a garnishment order against a bank account, a creditor could seize those funds.

Some banks have said theyre not going to seize funds to pay debts owed to the bank itself, but they would have to obey a garnishment order from an outside creditor. The Treasury Department easily could have protected the stimulus payments from creditors in the same way that Social Security payments already are protected. It wouldve been a very simple administrative fix, but for whatever reason, policymakers chose not to do it.

Since Treasury didn't do that, the stimulus payments are just like any other money coming into the bank. If the bank or some other creditor wants to seize the payment, it may be able to do so. There are protections for the stimulus payment in a bankruptcy case, but outside of bankruptcy, the general rules apply.

The CARES Act provides some other measures to help consumer debtors in bankruptcy. Are those likely to be enough, or will we likely see further measures the longer the economy continues to stagnate and shed jobs?

The CARES Acts changes to the bankruptcy law were helpful but very limited. The most significant change was to allow debtors in bankruptcy who were affected by COVID-19 to pay creditors in a Chapter 13 plan over seven years instead of five. A more useful change might have been to limit how much a debtor had to pay, instead of just making them pay for longer. The change also only applies to cases already in the bankruptcy courts and will not apply to cases filed in the future. It is likely there will be further changes to the bankruptcy laws as the crisis unfolds, the most significant of which will make it easier for consumers to pay their attorneys.

What effect will COVID-19 have on consumer bankruptcies? - University of Illinois News

PG&E to Purge Most of Its Board in Fallout From Bankruptcy – NBC Bay Area

Posted on May 3, 2020 by Danzig

PG&E Corp. will sweep out three quarters of its board of directors to start with a mostly clean slate when it emerges from a bankruptcy case triggered by deadly wildfires ignited in Northern California by the utilitys neglected electrical grid.

The decision announced Friday will leave just three of Pacific Gas and Electrics 14 current board members in place if the San Francisco company is able to win bankruptcy court approval of its plan. The plan includes $25.5 billion to cover losses from 2017 and 2018 wildfires that devastated parts of its sprawling service territory.

The purge of its board of directors still falls shy of meeting the demands of Gov. Gavin Newsom and the head of the California Public Utilities Commission, PG&Es chief regulator. Neither Newsom nor the PUC immediately responded to requests for comment Friday.

The board departures include CEO Bill Johnson, who recently disclosed his plan to surrender the reins after just 14 months on the job.

When Johnson departs this summer, he will be replaced by former AT&T executive Bill Smith, one of the three current board members staying on. The others are two executives with past experience in the energy sector: Cheryl Campbell and John Woolard.

One of the departing directors, Jeffrey L. Bleich, left the board Friday. The others will depart after PG&E emerges from bankruptcy, which its aiming to do by June 30 to qualify for coverage from Californias new wildfire insurance fund.

Most of the departing board members assumed their positions after PG&E filed for bankruptcy 16 months ago.

PG&Es choices for its future board will be closely scrutinized. Newsom, PUC President Marybel Batjer and company critics are pushing for directors from California and want them to have safety expertise to help prevent the neglect under past management and led to the wildfires that killed nearly 130 people. PG&E plans to plead guilty this month to 84 counts of involuntary manslaughter for a 2018 fire that destroyed the town of Paradise.

Besides disclosing the board shake-up, PG&E also announced Friday its financial results for the first three months of the year. The company earned $374 million during the first quarter, more than doubling its profit from the same time last year.

PG&E would have made even more more money if not for $219 million in bankruptcy costs and another $226 million in expenses tied to past wildfires.

The company may soon be facing even more costs as part of an ongoing crackdown on its business practices. Thats because a federal judge overseeing a five-year criminal probation from another lethal disaster caused by an explosion in its natural gas lines ordered PG&E earlier this week to hire more inspectors to check on potential problems in its transmission system and also wants other improvements made in the way it trims trees near its power lines.

PG&E has until May 28 to outline its plans for complying with U.S. District Judge William Alsups order.

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PG&E to Purge Most of Its Board in Fallout From Bankruptcy - NBC Bay Area

Bankruptcy proves to be another problem for the PPP fund – Restaurant Business Online

Posted on May 3, 2020 by Danzig

Photograph: Shutterstock

Earlier this week, fast-casual chain Cosi filed a lawsuit against the U.S. Small Business Administration over its inability to get a Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loan. Cosi wanted $3.7 million but was kept from applying because it had filed for bankruptcy and had yet to emerge.

In its lawsuit, Cosi pointed out that several other companies received such funding, only to file for bankruptcy immediately afterward.

Like clockwork, a restaurant chain did just that. The Florida-based TooJays filed for bankruptcy this week, shortly after receiving $6.4 million.

The question of bankruptcy has become yet another thorn in the side of a fund that thousands of restaurant companies had hoped would become their saving grace.

The agency has been taking steps to correct some of these issues. It is now reviewing loans of $2 million or moreafter small businesses complained that too many loans were going to large companies that can more easily find alternative sources of financing.

It has also indicated that public companies would not normally be able to receive such loans because they, too, have other sources of financing. The rule change led many publicly traded restaurant companies, including Pollo Tropical owner Fiesta Restaurant Group, J. Alexanders and Potbelly Sandwich Shop, to return their funds.

Bankruptcy is a more difficult scenario. For a chain such asCosi, which filed for debt protection in February, PPP funds could be a critical lifeline that ensures it can make it through the process.

At the same time, however, such companies were already at risk.

The administration, in consultation with Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, determined that providing PPP loans to debtors in bankruptcy would present an unacceptably high risk of an unauthorized use of funds or non-repayment of unforgiven loans.

Yet why allow companies to get funds and then file for federal bankruptcy protection afterwards?

Cosi argued in its lawsuit that the PPP loans would actually have more protection if they were made to companies already in bankruptcy. No possible justification exists for a scheme that permits a debtor to obtain a PPP loan on the very eve of its bankruptcy case, while denying that same loan to a debtor subsequent to its petition date, the company said.

Indeed, some law firms have noted that the SBAs stand is strange.

Some judges have taken a similar view. So did Cosis, reportedly, but not enough to keep the judge from denying the chains request to enable it to apply for such funds. Several companies have sued the SBA over its position.

The SBA appeared to clarify its rule somewhat this week, saying in the federal register that companies that file for bankruptcy after submitting an application, but before receiving the funds, have an obligation to notify the lender and request cancellation of the application.

Failure by the applicant to do so will be regarded as a use of PPP funds for an unauthorized purpose, the agency said.

As weve said before, Congress provided relatively little in the fund originally, at least for the number of companies that could potentially apply. That has led to numerous fights over who should or should not apply.

Congress put the package together in a hurry and designed it to cover as many people as possible. Much of what is happening now is the result of companies and agencies figuring out what doesnt work.

Yet that process has put a number of companies in an even worse bind than the one they were already in.

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Bankruptcy proves to be another problem for the PPP fund - Restaurant Business Online

COVID-19 pandemic likely put some bankruptcies on hold – ModernHealthcare.com

Posted on May 3, 2020 by Danzig

COVID-19 will trigger a wave of healthcare bankruptcies in 2020, but the pandemic had the opposite effect in the first quarter.

That's because the economic turmoil in March likely threw a wrench in the exit strategies of companies that had previously planned to file last month. And since most of the damage hit in mid-March when many stay-at-home orders took effect, March 31 was too soon for most other filings.

"If there was no COVID, I think the number of bankruptcies would be a little higher," said Jeremy Johnson, a shareholder with the law firm Polsinelli who handles bankruptcies, said of the first quarter filings. "But then we know it's going to go up."

Polsinelli's first quarter 2020 distress report found the healthcare distress index grew by eight points in the recently ended quarter, which is 133% above the benchmark created in the fourth quarter of 2010. The report's distress index measures bankruptcy filings on a trailing, four-quarter basis, which the firm says smooths volatility and provides a better picture of long-term trends.

Polsinelli measured healthcare's distress index at 233.3 in the first quarter, significantly higher than the overall Chapter 11 distress index of 54.5, and the real estate distress index of 30.8.

The report includes all patient-facing healthcare, including hospitals, ambulatory surgery centers, physician clinics and behavioral health clinics. Lately, Johnson said it's been a lot of senior living facilities and hospitals. In the first quarter, that included Thomas Health in West Virginia and Randolph Health in North Carolina.

Although the bankruptcies that will inevitably be prompted by COVID-19 didn't hit in the first quarter, Johnson said they'll start to trickle in in the second, third and fourth quarters.

One example is for-profit Quorum Health Corp., whose hospitals are located in rural and mid-sized markets. The Brentwood, Tenn.-based company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in early April, the second quarter. Quorum has lost money since its 2016 spinoff from Community Health Systems, and cited COVID-19 as one factor that prompted its filing.

Hospitals have been forced to halt profitable elective procedures during the pandemic, prompting steep revenue declines. That coupled with the expense of treating complex COVID-19 patients for extended periods of time has placed many in dire financial positions.

Most health systems have been scrambling to boost liquidity by drawing on credit lines, issuing bonds and taking out bank loans. But that won't be enough for some, especially smaller hospitals or health systems.

There's a legal question as to whether or not companies can file for bankruptcy while simultaneously collecting federal stimulus funding under the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act.

Cynthia Romano, a global director in CohnReznick's restructuring and dispute resolution practice, said companies are not allowed to collect stimulus relief while they're in bankruptcy, which will postpone healthcare filings to the third and fourth quarters "when stimulus funds are no longer in play."

Struggling healthcare providers could argue that's discrimination against companies that need stimulus funding the most, Johnson said. He predicts a forthcoming wave of litigation on that question. That may be a losing battle for providers, though, as the stimulus funding is likely to run out before their court victories, he said.

Lots of bankruptcies will correspond with lenders or private equity firms taking stock of their portfolios and determining where demand has rebounded and where it hasn't, Romano said.

"They will be making choices about who lives and who dies from a corporate perspective," she said.

In the first quarter, 71% of healthcare's Chapter 11 filings were among the smallest companies measured: those with $1 million to $10 million in assets, Polsinelli found. The report excludes companies with fewer than $1 million in assets. Johnson said it's typical for most bankruptcy filings to be smaller providers, especially rural hospitals.

The highest concentration of filings were in the Southeast, South and Pacific Northwest.

Healthcare bankruptcies had already been on the rise before the pandemic hit, Romano said. Healthcare comprised 2.9% of all corporate bankruptcies at the end of 2015 and 9.9% by the end of 2018, she said.

Now, in the age of COVID-19, even previously strong providers are on thin ice.

"I don't care how healthy you were," Romano said. "You think about the teetering ones, that puts them over the edge. If you think about the really healthy ones, that puts them in significant distress."

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COVID-19 pandemic likely put some bankruptcies on hold - ModernHealthcare.com

J. Crew nears bankruptcy, Brooks Brothers seeks buyer – The Real Deal

Posted on May 3, 2020 by Danzig

A J. Crew storefront on Madison Avenue in New York and a Brooks Brothers store in Beverly Hills, California (Credit: Richard Levine/Corbis and FG/Bauer-Griffin/GC Images)

J. Crew and Brooks Brothers are among the latest retailers on the brink of bankruptcy.

J. Crew, which has 322 stores, is seeking $400 million in financing to fund operations during bankruptcy, CNBC reported. And Brooks Brothers is seeking to sell itself, a deal that could potentially be part of a bankruptcy filing, according to Bloomberg.

J. Crew, whose holdings include retailer Madewell, was struggling before the coronavirus sent shoppers home in March. The company saw meaningful improvement in its 2019 business, according to Moodys, compared with the prior year, but as of February it had $93 million in total liquidity as debts came due. TPG Capital and Leonard Green & Partners bought the company in 2011 for $3 billion.

Similarly, Brooks Brothers woes predate the health crisis. The Wall Street favorite has $600 million in debt and many of its 250 U.S. locations were also struggling before the pandemic, sources told Bloomberg. Its attempt at a sale began last year.

The pandemic has exacerbated retailers financial problems. High-end department store Neiman Marcus is also nearing bankruptcy, though a group of its investors are pushing for the firm to seek a sale. J.C. Penney, too, is in talks with its lenders for at least $800 million in bankruptcy financing. [CNBC, Bloomberg] Georgia Kromrei

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J. Crew nears bankruptcy, Brooks Brothers seeks buyer - The Real Deal

A Flood of Business Bankruptcies Likely in Coming Months – The New York Times

Posted on May 3, 2020 by Danzig

NEW YORK The billions of dollars in coronavirus relief targeted at small businesses may not prevent many of them from ending up in bankruptcy court.

Our occupancy is going to be cut 60% to 65%, Bennett says. I fear bankruptcy is a possibility.

Other small companies have similar anxieties, says Paul Singerman, a bankruptcy attorney with Berger Singerman in Miami.

There is no reliable visibility into when business operations will be able to resume the pre-COVID normal, Singerman says.

Even larger companies are in trouble, including already struggling retailers who had to shut their stores.

Many companies, however, just shut their doors, and thats likely to be the case again, Singerman says. According to some estimates, 170,000 companies failed during the recession.

But the Small Business Reorganization Act, which took effect in February, may encourage more companies to seek Chapter 11. The law is aimed at allowing owners to retain their ownership rather than lose their companies to their creditors; that is generally what happens in Chapter 11. The law also streamlines the reorganization process so a company is not wiped out by attorneys fees, says Edward Janger, a professor at Brooklyn Law School in New York whose expertise includes bankruptcy law.

Another change under the law is that a bankruptcy judge can approve the reorganization over creditors objections, Janger says.

Business owners will try to avoid bankruptcy by seeking leniency from landlords, lenders and vendors, bankruptcy attorney David Wander says. But with their companies financial troubles beyond their control because of the virus outbreak, many will file for Chapter 11 because the stigma that bankruptcy has long held will be gone, says Wander, a partner at Davidoff Hutcher & Citron in New York.

The tsunami is going to happen in the coming months and its going to be ongoing, Wander says.

Originally posted here:

A Flood of Business Bankruptcies Likely in Coming Months - The New York Times

COVID-19 Retail Bankruptcies Ready to Boil Over – WWD

Posted on May 3, 2020 by Danzig

The other shoe is about to drop.

A trio of high-profile, but struggling retailers including J. Crew Group, Neiman Marcus Group and J.C. Penney Co. Inc. are all said to be preparing to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection by mid-May.

Together the three companies bring in sales of more than $18 billion annually and represent a wide swath of the industry from value-priced broadline retailing to mall-based specialty stores to refined department store luxury.

All of them have been on the industrys watch list for months, but each had plans to turn around their fortunes that appear to have been overwhelmed by the now six-week shutdown of the consumer economy that was forced by COVID-19.

J. Crew was betting on a spin-off and initial public offering for its successful Madewell division to satiate the companys debt holders. But the plan missed its window as markets tanked and multiple reports Thursday said a filing could come as soon as this week. A spokesman declined to comment.

Neiman Marcus missed an interest payment mid-month and has been on the cusp of filing for bankruptcy. It is reported to be working with multiple lender groups as it looks to secure the debtor-in-possession financing that would see it through Chapter 11.

J.C. Penney also missed an interest payment and has been exploring its options during a 30-day grace period. And while one source close to the situation said no decision has been made and that options other than bankruptcy remain on the table, another source familiar with the process said a filing could come May 14 or 15.

Even strong retailers tend to live hand-to-mouth, using their sales to cover their expenses and the industry has proven ill-equipped to handle a complete shutdown. It has responded by furloughing workers, canceling orders from suppliers and pushing off their landlords. Those actions have rippled up and down the supply chain, hurting companies of all kinds.

The question now for companies that came into the crisis in a heavily indebted or otherwise weakened position is: Even if they could survive through the immediate shutdown, would they be strong enough to survive the dire consumer landscape on the other side?

The U.S. economy was thrown into reverse in the first quarter, with gross domestic product falling 4.8 percent even though that included just a few weeks of real disruption in late March. The second-quarter contraction is expected to be one for the record books, topping 30 percent.

Thirty million people have applied for unemployment since the shutdown started and its not clear just when they will go back to work and start to spend.

Washington has raced to ease the pain and Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said this week the central bank would keep taking aggressive actions to support the economy.

The next phases are more uncertain, highly uncertain, but we will go through a phase starting fairly soon where we begin to reopen the economy, and probably the economic activity will pick up, as consumer spending picks up, Powell said. Consumer spending has gone down quite a lot. It will begin to pick up as people start to return to their normal patterns of spending.

Its a toxic brew that could lead to an especially harrowing trip through bankruptcy, which even in the best of times leads to cutbacks and store closings as the court tries to create a company that can stand on its own while often wiping out equity holders.

In todays climate its not clear just how long bankruptcy would last, whether landlords will be forced to essentially float rent payments for some time and stores destined to be closed for good could be liquidated.

J. Crew, J.C. Penney and Neiman Marcus are just the leading edge of what could be a massive wave of business failures. Ascena Retail Group Inc., Lord & Taylor and Academy also came into the crisis on debt watch lists.

And now, every retailer and brand is under the microscope, and their future prospects are being examined down to every last cent.

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COVID-19 Retail Bankruptcies Ready to Boil Over - WWD

State bankruptcy is irrelevant to COVID-19 and bailouts aren’t the answer | TheHill – The Hill

Posted on May 3, 2020 by Danzig

The nations governors have asked for at least $500 billion in federal bailouts to make up for falling state revenues and to backfill their systemically underfunded pension plans. Some members of Congress have seconded the request, but, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellPelosi, McConnell decline White House offer of rapid COVID-19 tests Congress must pass coronavirus tort reform Trump says there's 'tremendous' testing capacity for returning senators MORE (R-Ky.) recently suggested that states have another option: Bankruptcy.

The fact is, no state or local government will need to declare bankruptcy just because of COVID-19. Rather, if states or municipalities do face insolvency, it will be the result of decades of fiscal mismanagement.

The important takeaway behind Sen. McConnells statement is that the federal government is not responsible for states budgets.

Yes, the federal government has an obligation to help cover the costs of addressing the pandemic. To that end, Congress has already sent states unprecedented aid.

And, yes, state and local governments are experiencing a decline in income-, sales-, and some other tax revenues. But unforeseen circumstances is one of the reasons states have rainy day funds. In aggregate, those funds were at an all-time-high prior to COVID-19, but not every state was well-prepared. While Wyoming had an entire years worth of revenue saved away, Illinois and Kansas had mere minutes of revenue saved.

COVID-19 could be the straw that broke the camels back for states already headed toward insolvency. But it alone isnt sufficient to create a need for either bailouts or bankruptcy.

When Puerto Rico entered bankruptcy, its debt equaled about three times its annual revenues. And when Detroit entered bankruptcy in 2013, the citys debt was 13 times its annual revenues. A few months or even a few years of lower revenues wont create bankruptcy situations for states. Government insolvency results from prolonged, systemic mismanagement.

Already, the federal government has provided state and local governments with direct grants worth $150 billion to help cover COVID-19 expenses. And it appears that states dont need more money for that. Otherwise, why have governors asked for flexibility to use these funds for non-pandemic costs? Why have some used the money for temporarypay raisesandbonusesfor public-sector workers, while26 million Americans have lost their paychecks?

Then theres the Federal Reserves $500 billion in unprecedented short-term lending to state and local governments. That amounts to half of every state and local governments annual income- and sales-tax revenues. Its unlikely those revenues will fall by 50 percent, if only because Congress has provided roughly $1.3 trillion in the form of small-business grants and loans, checks to households and massively-expanded unemployment insurance benefits all of which will help prop up state and local tax receipts.

Its becoming increasingly clear that what states really want is just an all-purpose bailout for their pre-existing problems.

Prior to the pandemic and despite the exceptionally strong economy, New York Gov. Andrew CuomoAndrew CuomoNew York to distribute millions more cloth masks to vulnerable populations A Hillary Clinton-Barack Obama ticket to replace Joe Biden? Is it even possible? New York reports 299 coronavirus deaths, slight uptick from previous day MORE was facing a $6.1 billion annual budget deficit. Illinois had projected a $3.2 billion deficit.

The $40 billion in federal taxpayer funds requested by Illinois Senate Democratic Caucus would go mostly to financing the states consciously-enacted deficit and propping up its bloated pension systems, which entered the year with an unfunded liability of $137 billion.

If Congress were to provide a nation-wide state bailout proportionate to what Illinois requested, it would cost federal taxpayers an additional $1 trillion. Thats not far off from what House Speaker Nancy PelosiNancy PelosiPelosi, McConnell decline White House offer of rapid COVID-19 tests HHS making 1K coronavirus tests available as senators return to DC Coronavirus stimulus money went to some health-care providers facing criminal probes: report MORE (D-Calif.) is seeking.

Theres a fundamental unfairness to state bailouts. They force taxpayers in well-run states to subsidize those who have systematically squandered a strong economy and shortchanged pension plans of trillions of dollars worth of required contributions.

Some have suggested requiring more prudent budgeting from states that accept bailouts. Its a rather ironic suggestion, considering that the federal governments fiscal recklessness has created over $70,000 in debt per capita, while state debt averages less than $10,000 per capita.

Moreover, bailing out states denies the problems of socializing costs. If youve ever gone out to dinner with a large group, you might remember how the expensive steak, an extra drink and dessert are more appealing if those costs are split by everyone at the table. If thats what everyone is thinking, then everyone pays more in the end.

Socializing government debts by redistributing state and local costs to federal taxpayers in times of crisis is like splitting the check: Everyone still pays they just wind up paying a lot more.

Rachel Greszler is a research fellow in The Heritage Foundations Center for the Federal Budget. Adam N. Michel is a senior policy analyst in the center.

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State bankruptcy is irrelevant to COVID-19 and bailouts aren't the answer | TheHill - The Hill

Bankruptcy Didn’t Help Detroit Fight the Coronavirus – The New York Times

Posted on May 3, 2020 by Danzig

Cities across the country are facing a red-ink cascade. On April 22, Mitch McConnell recommended that cities and states try bankruptcy if theyre struggling during the coronavirus pandemic. This is a terrible idea, and we dont need to look farther than Detroit to see why.

Although filing for bankruptcy enables a city to renegotiate debts with its creditors, freeing future revenues for uses beyond interest payments on outstanding debt, the maneuver exacerbates negative trends. Bankruptcy does not bring back lost jobs or shuttered businesses, nor will it magically reconstruct a tax base.

While some cities with resilient industries may have reserves to weather the storm, many that were already contending with unemployment, stagnant wages and rising inequality will fare worse. Officials in San Jose, Calif., anticipate losses of $110 million in revenue, three times higher in relative terms than the 2008 financial crisis. The mayor of Dayton, Ohio, has modeled a future with 30 percent fewer firefighters and police officers, while the New Orleans mayor forecasts $100 million in reductions from the citys operating budget.

Detroits 2013 bankruptcy and the experiences of people who endured it demonstrate the limits of a bankruptcy declaration as a cure-all. Instead, its important to invest in people directly.

I got to know Miles, a man in Detroit in his late 40s, as I studied the lingering effects of Detroits bankruptcy.

Everywhere you look someones getting sick or they cant go to work, he told me recently. Its getting thick out there, real thick.

Already struggling to make a living in construction, he fears the loss of his livelihood, his house and his ability to afford food. Since bankruptcy, Detroit has balanced its budget by welcoming speculative property investment and levying costs on residents like Miles. A company in Florida scammed him on a house with unpaid property taxes, triggering tax foreclosure a few months after the sale. He has been juggling minimum payments on bills in a suddenly more expensive metropolis. Now, faced with the loss of more income from Michigans stay-at-home order, he wonders in earnest: Could I quarantine myself at a job site in order to get work?

In the private sector, bankruptcy only helps companies with viable business models and temporary revenue disruptions. Many have repeatedly entered bankruptcy before permanently going out of business. Similarly, municipal bankruptcy is most effective in addressing onetime debt imbalances such as a large, outstanding legal judgment or to cover losses on misguided investments. Declaring bankruptcy will not reverse deeper and more pervasive challenges.

Though the Families First Coronavirus Act eased some pressures on state unemployment insurance programs and augmented federal coverage of Medicaid payments, similar aid during the financial crisis was more generous. The 2020 CARES Act pledged loans, loan guarantees and other investments to businesses, states or municipalities, but that money can only be used to reimburse costs stemming from the virus. It cannot boost general revenues, Medicaid spending or unemployment insurance.

The CARES Act also provides only half as much funding to state and local governments as they received following the 2008 financial crisis. Senator Elizabeth Warren has highlighted the need for guarantees that the funds available under the act would first flow to state and local governments rather than to large corporations.

In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, federal grants increased to support state and local government spending. By 2011, that spigot had largely run dry. In 2012, Stockton, Calif., became the largest city at that time to file for bankruptcy. Several hundred cities struggled on the brink of default, shrinking their public payrolls, cutting services and selling public land. Since 2007, more than 70 American municipalities have entered bankruptcy, a deluge in comparison to the three cities that chose that route between 1970 and 2007.

The choice to abandon cities to their own insufficient budgets created weaknesses that still hamper the response to the coronavirus. In the lead-up to bankruptcy, for example, Detroit reduced spending by outsourcing the responsibilities of the public health department to a private agency. To boost revenues from Detroits water system and leverage its value as a city asset in the bankruptcy, service shut-offs of customers with delinquent accounts surged. During the bankruptcy episode, the water department turned off water at 900 houses a day, threatening a public health crisis.

During this period, Miles found himself responsible for an unpaid water bill from the company that sold him his home. When added to the companys unpaid property taxes, he nearly lost the house. Detroits attempts to raise revenues from residents, through higher taxes, fines and fees, left residents like Miles with less savings to withstand a crisis like the coronavirus.

Isnt the economy us thats sitting at home, and us that have no choice but to go to work? Miles asked.

Municipal balance sheets reflect the financial health of city residents. In Detroit, when Miles can fully realize his talents, he will pay more in city income taxes and spend more in the local economy. The future of cities lies in investing in people like him.

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Bankruptcy Didn't Help Detroit Fight the Coronavirus - The New York Times

Suddenly, bankruptcy is on the mind of business owners – ThisisReno

Posted on May 3, 2020 by Danzig

Support This Is Renos COVID-19 news coverage

We are reporting daily on how the coronavirus is impacting the Reno area. This coverage is outside of our paywall, provided free of charge.

Please support us by becoming a subscriber or contributing a tax-deducible donation to our COVID-19 news fund. Any amount is appreciated.

Feature Image: Trevor Bexon

Business owners in the Reno area arent rushing to file for bankruptcy protection, but theyre beginning to ask their lawyers about the possibilities.

Thats a good thing, the lawyers say. Too often in the past, business owners have waited until theyve watched all their assets personal, sometimes, along with the business dwindle away before they seek the shelter of bankruptcy.

Plus, it reduces the worry.

The unknown is what is so scary for a lot of people, says Tricia Darby, who practices bankruptcy law in Reno with her husband, Kevin. Were visiting today with smart people who want to understand what their options might be.

Timothy Lukas, who specializes in bankruptcy as a partner at the law firm of Holland & Hart in Reno, says unknowns abound for business owners as a result of the freeze-in-place orders by state and local officials six weeks ago.

There are still a lot of unknowns about when and how our local economy will emerge from the current financial crisis, says Lukas. The abrupt, system-wide disruption to the economy means business owners and lenders need to work out the problems theyre facing.

The federal stimulus packages designed to help business weather the COVID-19 storm present even more issues to sort through.

The current stimulus bills prohibit or limit relief if a business chooses to file for bankruptcy.Right now, all of the obligations and commitments for business owners remain in place, Lukas says.

On the other hand, Darby says Congress opened the doors for more small businesses that are floundering as a result of the pandemic to reorganize under the protection of Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Some filing deadlines were extended.

But Lukas cautions that those measures are valid only for a year.

If one waits too long to file for bankruptcy, it can be a disaster, he says, recommending that business owners and their attorneys understand today what a bankruptcy filing could accomplish or not if theres even a chance that a company will go under.

Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings cases in which businesses try to regroup while they get their feet back underneath themselves were declining in the region before the pandemic-related shutdowns. Last year saw 14 filings of Chapter 11 cases in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Reno. That compared with 26 a year earlier.

Chapter 7 cases the ones in which a judge oversees the liquidation of a business totaled 566 last year. A year earlier, 1,133 of those cases were filed in the bankruptcy court in Reno.

We are reporting daily on how the coronavirus is impacting the Reno area. This coverage is outside of our paywall, provided free of charge.

Please support us by becoming a subscriber or contributing a tax-deducible donation to our COVID-19 news fund. Any amount is appreciated.

The Regional Information Center team reported today a large increase in the number of COVID-19 cases, including two additional deaths.

Governor Steve Sisolak this week came under fire for lack of communication not just with the news media but with noted constituent groups as the Silver State

Governor Steve Sisolak yesterday signed another emergency directive, this time to provide economic relief to some Nevadans.

Governor Steve Sisoak revealed yesterday what phase one of reopening Nevada will look like from his plan Nevada United: Roadmap to Recovery.

Inmates at the Washoe County Sheriffs Office Detention Facility will receive one free weekly video visit with someone off-site starting next week.

Criticism against Governor Steve Sisolak is ramping up after he surprised Nevadans with plans to reopen the state on national media.

OPINION: With such an abundance of health and nutrition information, how do you separate fact from fiction? UNRs Extension provides tips to sort through the junk science.

A group of local business leaders launched Hospitality Industry Partnerships, HIP, to help feed out of work restaurant, bar and gaming employees.

OPINION: Berkbigler, a lobbyist and politician by trade, is showing she believes she knows more about science than medical specialists, epidemiologists and public health experts.

Business owners in the Reno area arent rushing to file for bankruptcy protection, but theyre beginning to ask their lawyers about the possibilities.

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Suddenly, bankruptcy is on the mind of business owners - ThisisReno

For the record: Building permits and bankruptcies | Work & Money – Tulsa World

Posted on May 3, 2020 by Danzig

BUILDING PERMITS

(Listed by owner, tenant or building name. This weekly update lists new commercial construction, expansions and enlargements of more than $50,000. Information is from initial applications and is subject to change. Dollar amount is valuation declared by owner.)

19-047963 114 N. Boston, 114 N. Boston Ave., alteration, $200,000.

20-058693 Airpark, 11605 E. 27th St. North, alteration, $100,000.

20-053676 Nellis Family Dentistry, 9314 S. Delaware Ave., accessory structure, $750,000.

20-054502 Eastgate Metroplex, 14002 E. 21st St., alteration, $50,000.

20-058182 Premium Cannabis Plug, LLC, 5264 N. Peoria Ave., alteration, $250,000.

20-054470 Jenks East Elementary Building D, 8925 S. Harvard Ave., alteration, $350,000.

20-054474 Jenks East Elementary Building F, 8925 S. Harvard Ave., alteration, $100,000.

20-058725 Gypswy Industries, 6525 E. 40th St., alteration, $725,000.

BUSINESS BANKRUPTCIES

(Weekly update includes filings classified as business in the numerical list of the U.S. Bankruptcy Court, Northern District in Tulsa, and which also list business as nature of debt on bankruptcy document.)

20-10632-M Joseph Lee Kerschen, 9345 N. 145th East Ave., Owasso, assets: $460,342.62, liabilities: $554,149, attorney: Brian W. Huckabee, chapter 7.

20-10651-R Claude Daniel Pentecost, 4630 S. Columbia Ave., assets: $570,066, liabilities: $6,281,703.72, attorney: Ron D. Brown, chapter 7.

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For the record: Building permits and bankruptcies | Work & Money - Tulsa World

Airlines need years to recover from COVID-19, if they avoid bankruptcy – Business Insider

Posted on May 3, 2020 by Danzig

The airline industry is limping into the third month of what insiders have called the biggest crisis in its history.

Travel demand began to fall off in the Asia region in mid- to late-January, and broadly in the rest of the world by mid-March.

As it became evident by late-March that this would be a prolonged crisis, squashing any hope for the type of rapid decline-rapid recovery seen after the 2003 SARS outbreak, experts began to forecast a recovery that would likely extend beyond 2020.

Now, as analysts begin to reach a consensus on when the industry may bounce back, the outlook remains bleak.

Earlier this month, a research report from airline analyst Joseph DeNardi at Stifel indicated air travel demand would likely not return to normal until mid-2021 at the earliest, noting that such a return was a best-case scenario, and that a more bearish course appears to be emerging.

At the time, the estimate seemed conservative. Now, however, analysts and experts including DeNardi are reaching a consensus that it will take at least two full years for travel demand to return to 2019 levels, and possibly as long as five.

Ken Herbert of Canaccord Genuity wrote in late January that the virus posed a "substantial" risk to global air travel and the aerospace sector, while Tourism Economics warned of a $10 billion hit to the US travel industry if visits from China fell substantially.

In the three months since, the outbreak has swept across the globe and decimated the entire global airline sector. What initially looked like a potentially quick rebound Canaccord's Herbert predicted a V-shaped recovery, using other outbreaks like SARS as a framework is now widely believed to be slow, and difficult.

The initial reports worked under the assumption that, like past outbreaks such as SARS and MERS, COVID-19 would be a mainly regional crisis, possibly with flare-ups in other areas, but primarily affecting Asian markets.

During fourth-quarter 2019 earnings calls, which took place in January, airline analysts and executives hardly mentioned the coronavirus outbreak aside from consideration of service to China and Hong Kong.

Now, as the virus has brought much of the world to a standstill, the focus has shifted.

The Alaska Airlines ticket counter at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport. Joey Hadden/Business Insider

Over the past several weeks, travel demand has tanked.

"It certainly feels like we're at the bottom," American Airlines CEO Doug Parker said during a television interview on April 15. "Our revenues are down 90% on a year-over-year basis. And they've been that way now for a few weeks. So, the real question is how long do you stay at the bottom? And when do we begin to recover?"

Analysts across the board agree that even if the recovery begins soon, it will be prolonged.

"We are growing increasingly convinced that industry recovery to 2019 levels of output will be a multi-year affair," analyst Jamie Baker of JPMorgan wrote in early April, "resulting in the material shedding of aircraft and headcount along the way."

"Airline bookings remain at unprecedented lows," Bank of America analyst Andrew Didora wrote in an April 26 research note. "Based on what has transpired in China, volumes could stay at these levels for a few weeks before beginning to recover. Then, we think the recovery could be slow."

"We assume a 2-3 year period for demand to return to 2019 levels," Joseph DeNardi of Stifel wrote in an April 21 note, observing that the reduced supply resulting from airlines temporarily grounding fleets would help make up for a "historically slower return to normal."

During the CNBC interview, American's Parker noted there were perhaps early signs of an impending recovery, noting that the airline had seen a slight uptick in bookings for more than 90 days out, as well as some corporate interest in travel for the fourth quarter.

But Parker (and a spokesperson for the airline, in a follow-up discussion with Business Insider) acknowledged that even if a recovery begins in the coming months, it will take a while before the industry returns to 2019 levels of revenue and demand.

Boeing CEO David Calhoun agreed, making headlines earlier this week when he said, "it will take two to three years for travel to return to 2019 levels and an additional few years beyond that for the industry's long-term growth trend to return."

Calhoun also noted that reduced travel demand means a reduced need for new airplanes.

Helane Becker of Cowen thinks a turnaround could take even longer.

"We expect it to take 2 to 5 years to recover to 2019 levels," she wrote in a lengthy April 13 report titled A Winding Road to Recovery, adding: "our working assumption is 2021 revenues will be back to 2016 levels."

"April and May will be the worst months for the airlines as social distancing and sheltering in place continue," she wrote. "June and July seem to be a targeting timeline for return to work for much of the US economy."

"Unfortunately, return to work might not mean immediate return to the air," she added. "It is highly likely that any recovery won't start until the fourth quarter at the earliest, and then continue slowly through 2021 and into 2022."

Southwest Airlines CEO Gary Kelly agreed with the longer-term assessment. On the airline's first quarter earnings call this week, he said that based on past recessions, he expects business travel to take about five years to return to pre-outbreak trends, possibly even longer.

"Based on history, in a recessionary environment, it is a long recovery period for businesses. And it's intuitive to me on why that would be," Kelly said. "This one feels like it could be worse."

Kevork Djansezian / Getty Images

Analysts and industry leaders are also beginning to agree that leisure travel may recover faster, even if business travel begins its recovery sooner.

"We may see an initial surge in business travel, but nothing we would view as sustainable," Becker wrote. "There is significant liability for companies that push their employees to travel too quickly. Leisure travel, which traditionally comes back first, is likely to be slow to return as well."

"We believe business travel is likely to return ahead of leisure travel," she added, "but given the amount of teleconferencing, the use of Zoom, Skype, WebEx, GoToMeeting and other ways people are staying in touch and conducting meetings, this suggests that while business travel will return, it also will return at a slower pace than prior recoveries."

According to an April 19 note from Bank of America's Didora, leisure bookings declined at a slower rate than corporate, but have reached roughly the same low level.

Regardless, the industry's financial outlook is likely to remain grim for a while.

"For purposes of modeling, we assume the phenomenon of negative net bookings (refunds exceeding sales) continues well into the third quarter," JPMorgan's Baker wrote on April 22.

REUTERS/Thomas Peter

Over the past several years, the airline industry both globally and in the US has been on a rapid and steady expansion, adding capacity, new planes, and new routes.

Almost overnight, that expansion screeched to a halt, and that reversal could continue, even after the pandemic is contained.

"[W]e believe the airlines will end 2020 at least 20% smaller than they ended 2019 and probably closer to 30% smaller," Cowen's Becker wrote.

The downsizing would see airlines cut costs wherever possible, but the two major savings areas will be labor and aircraft.

According to Becker, mainline US airlines employ about 473,000 people. Airlines for America, an industry trade and lobbying organization, puts that number at 750,000 people, when regional carriers are included.

Despite payroll assistance from the federal government, which helps airlines cover employee salaries and prohibits layoffs before October, 2020, Becker wrote that she expects to see the mainline carriers eliminate 95,000-105,000 jobs by the end of this year.

"United and American have said they could be 15-20% smaller in 2021 than they would have otherwise," Stifel's DiNardi wrote.

He also noted that during past recessions, using the 2008 crisis as an example, airlines emerged with more disciplined growth strategies and more deliberate expansions as they focused on profitability. That suggests that the recovery years could see fewer new, interesting, or leisure-focused direct flights launched as airlines focus on more proven measures.

"We believe a return to capacity discipline and lower capex spending could drive a period of strong performance for the group coming out of the pandemic," DeNardi said.

Airlines are likely to retire older aircraft or place them into long-term storage to cut costs.

"Aircraft over 20 years old are unlikely to ever fly again in passenger revenue service," Becker wrote. "They are the first aircraft to go into storage and will be the last to come out."

She added that American Airlines has already begun reevaluating its fleet by retiring the 757, 767, E190, and some A330 planes, as well as some older 737NGs.

The move would eliminate at least three types of plane from the airline's fleet, helping it save money in the long term.

The major US airlines are likely to retire a total of 800-1,000 aircraft during the crisis, Becker wrote, which would inherently come with job cuts. US airlines employ an average of 97 people per aircraft, she said.

Flybe passenger planes are parked at Birmingham Airport in England. Associated Press

In March, the aviation consultancy CAPA saidthat by the end of May, "most airlines in the world will be bankrupt" without coordinated government and industry intervention.

Several have already occurred, including the UK's FlyBe, which ceased operations, and Virgin Australia, which entered voluntary administration a form of bankruptcy restructuring.

Several regional airlines in the US Trans States, Compass Airlines, and RavnAir have also folded.

The risk of a larger-scale consolidation in the industry is likely, several analysts have said.

"As the mainline airlines cut capacity and eliminate routes, we expect them to eliminate or scale back service to smaller cities. As they do that, it is likely to put pressure on the regional airlines," Cowen's Becker wrote. "We expect regional airline consolidation first, as we are already seeing, followed by consolidation among medium-sized airlines."

"Among the larger airlines, we would not be surprised to see the ultra-low cost airlines consider merging to get through the downturn," she added.

According to JPMorgan's Jamie Baker, however, it's possible that major carriers could also be vulnerable.

In an April 6 research note, Baker focused primarily on American, though suggested that the analysis could apply to other airlines.

American is not necessarily "mortally wounded," Baker wrote that the risk of a bankruptcy is, arguably for the first time in the crisis, becoming more pronounced, given the fact that the airline will likely need to significantly downsize its staff and its aircraft fleet.

There are "five, and basically only five, reasons why airlines file for bankruptcy," the report said:

Given those historical reasons for past bankruptcies, the report says, it's theoretically possible that a bankruptcy would be the most effective play for the airlines following the crisis.

The report cautions that this is only one possible scenario: "We don't think management is rushing to file for bankruptcy. We also don't think it's inevitable."

Over at Cowen, while raising the possibility of bankruptcies, Becker wrote that even with new debt, she thinks the major US airlines will be able to avoid considering bankruptcies at least through the end of the year, by which time demand may be recovering.

"Ultimately, we find the airlines have sufficient liquidity to survive through at least July," she wrote. "At this point, we do not have bankruptcy concerns for any of the US airlines we cover for the remainder of 2020, assuming each opts for and receives Phase III stimulus grants."

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Airlines need years to recover from COVID-19, if they avoid bankruptcy - Business Insider

German government to bail Lufthansa out of bankruptcy with nearly $10 billion state aid – Business Insider – Business Insider

Posted on May 3, 2020 by Danzig

The company will take the money but the state won't get a say: this is a concise summary of what Lufthansa's Executive Board, headed by CEO Carsten Spohr, has been telling German politicians in the past few weeks.

According to an investigation by Business Insider, Lufthansa is now so up to its neck in water, the airline's management had to come to an agreement with the German state on the afternoon of Monday, April 27, after hours of negotiations.

The agreement entails the state using $10 billion to bail out Germany's last remaining international airline.

But the state should not be given a say in corporate policy, insiders say.

It's expected that one or two supervisory board mandates will be given to the German federal government.

The company could face insolvency within weeks. Reuters

However, as a result of the worldwide travel restrictions in the Corona crisis, Lufthansa is currently making losses of around $1 million every hour.

The company could face insolvency within weeks.

Founded in 1953, Lufthansa began flight operations two years later and was, until 1963, entirely in state hands.

The federal government, however, sold its shares in the mid-1990s, so Lufthansa has been fully privatized since 1997.

Spohr wants to formally seal the deal with Merkel and Germany's finance minister, Olaf Scholz on Tuesday, April 28. Getty

According to the investigation, the state is pumping just under $10 billion into the badly hit company.

In return, the government, as the new shareholder, will receive a blocking minority and one or two supervisory board seats, but these will not be filled by civil servants or politicians.

Formally, the company will then be associated with the Federal Ministry of Finance as a state holding.

According to the group, a rough agreement has been reached.

The most crucial factor in the agreement was that the appointment of civil servants or politicians to the supervisory board was unacceptable in the eyes of Lufthansa's executives.

The state is pumping just under $10 billion into the badly hit company. Larry Downing/Reuters

Spohr himself didn't officially take part in yesterday's talks but on Tuesday, he wants to formally seal the deal with Chancellor Angela Merkel and Germany's finance minister, Olaf Scholz.

Through the investigation, Business Insider learned that it's unlikely the matter will be negotiated again.

Spohr had recently proposed an Airbus model for Lufthansa. Germany, France, and Spain hold a quarter of the shares of the aircraft manufacturer but don't exercise any direct influence over the company.

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German government to bail Lufthansa out of bankruptcy with nearly $10 billion state aid - Business Insider - Business Insider

‘Laser tweezers’ in nano lab used in search for drug to prevent COVID-19 replication – The Province

Posted on May 3, 2020 by Danzig

By Nicole Bergot

A drug can prevent the virus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic from replicating once inside an infected host, say researchers at the University of Alberta now searching for that magic bullet.

We aim to identify drugs that can be tested for effectiveness and safety in future trials, said Michael Woodside, a professor in the department of physics, using $370,700 in emergency funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) to find the elusive drug.

The plan is to screen first for drugs that are already approved for human use that could be repurposed to treat COVID-19 more quickly before broadening the search to potential drugs that are not currently approved.

Woodside explains that the genome of the novel coronavirus is made up of ribonucleic acid (RNA), not DNA so once inside an infected host, the virus inserts its RNA genome into the cell causing the creation of proteins the virus needs to replicate. And for all of this to occur, the novel coronavirus uses a process called programmed ribosomal frameshibing (PRF), a topic that Woodside, as a biophysicist, and his lab have been studying for years.

Researchers using laser tweezers to mimic what happens inside an infected cell were able to identify the mechanism through which PRF is triggered and now they can find molecular compounds to stop it from happening.

Most efforts to find drugs look for compounds that target the viral proteins directly, explains Woodside. Whats different about our approach is that we are targeting the virus through its RNA, rather than the proteins.

Woodside, inside the National Research Council of Canadas Nanotechnology Research Centre right here in Edmonton, is working closely with grad students, American counterparts, and Jack Tuszynski, a biophysics professor also in the department of physics, currently on secondment to the department of oncology in the faculty of medicine and dentistry.

Interdisciplinary research and scientific collaborations are essential to stopping the COVID-19 pandemic, said Woodside. Solutions have to engage expertise and approaches across a wide range of areas to understand the biophysics of the viral molecules, the biology of virus replication, the chemistry of drugs and their interactions with targets, the response of the immune system, the symptoms and epidemiology of the disease, and the response of patients to treatments.

Building and validating a model of the viral RNA for drug screening will occur over the next few months, with screening to identify approved drugs to follow before any potential candidates move toward preclinical tests.

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'Laser tweezers' in nano lab used in search for drug to prevent COVID-19 replication - The Province

Missouri Indian American Professor Develops Disinfecting Tunnel to Kill Viral Infections Using Silver Nano-particles – India West

Posted on May 3, 2020 by Danzig

An Indian American professor has developed the technology behind the Nanolife Disinfectant Tunnel, which successfully uses silver nano-particles to kill off viral infections.

Kattesh Katti, professor of radiology and director of the Institute of Green Nanotechnology at the University of Missouri in Columbia, Mo., told India-West the technology has been tested successfully on COVID-related viruses. Currently, the 8-foot-long tunnel has been deployed at three locations in Chennai, including the Tirumala Tirupati Temple, where thousands of devotees worship each day.

Indias Prime Minister Narendra Modi has placed an order for more tunnels, according to Katti, which are distributed in India through the company Nanolife.

Katti discovered the effectiveness of silver nano-particles in killing off viruses 20 years ago, and commercialized the technology via a hand sanitizer that uses no alcohol or chemicals. The technology was also being used as a cleaning agent in Indian hospitals, he said.

Then the COVID-19 pandemic hit; Katti and the team at Nanolife re-purposed their technology to address the global crisis, which has killed more than 214,000 people around the world, and infected more than three million people.

India, currently on a nationwide quarantine ordered by Modi in March, has a relatively low rate of infection and death from COVID-19: the country had reported 937 deaths and approximately 30,000 infections as of April 28.

But the countrys overcrowded conditions which make required social distancing difficult could drastically raise the number of deaths from the virus, predict Indian epidemiologists.

A country like India really needs more resources, Katti told India-West. The very high population density makes the pandemic significantly more dangerous, he said.

Unlike other disinfecting tunnels currently used in India and some other countries, Nanolifes disinfectant tunnel uses no harmful chemicals, which could be toxic. The technology is based simply on silver nano-particles, water and a proprietary herb that keeps the particles intact, said Katti, adding that the product is used in very low concentrations in the tunnels.

Prof. Jagat Ram of the Postgraduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh, and Prof. JS Thakur, chairman, Covid-19 Prevention Committee at PGI, have questioned the efficacy of disinfecting tunnels, stating that they provide people with a false sense of security. But the tunnels to which they were referring to use sodium hypochlorite, which is known to have several serious side effects. Nanolifes tunnels have no side effects, according to Katti.

The Government of India has banned the export of COVID-related technology, citing the huge need within the country for such products. Thus, for the moment, the Nanolife Disinfectant Tunnel is limited to deployment in India, but Katti is aiming to eventually bring the device to the U.S.

The Dharwad native said he envisions the Nanolife Disinfectant Tunnel in front of railway stations, airports, office buildings, and other large gathering places. Demand far outweighs production capability at the moment, he told India-West.

According to his bio, green nanotechnology is at the focal point of Katti's approach to pursuing research in nanotechnology and molecular medicine as he strongly believes in the total elimination of toxic chemicals in the production of engineered nanoparticles.

He uses phytochemicals occurring naturally within plants and herbs for nano constructs in a variety of applications.

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Missouri Indian American Professor Develops Disinfecting Tunnel to Kill Viral Infections Using Silver Nano-particles - India West

Triple Negative Breast Cancer Treatment Market to Grow at Stellar CAGR Double In% During the Forecast Period 2026 – Cole of Duty

Posted on May 3, 2020 by Danzig

Ongoing advancements in cancer research continue to lead to the introduction of newer and better treatment options including drug therapies. The provision of newer drugs and treatments is expected to improve the diagnostic and treatment rate for triple-negative breast cancer.

Some of the recent clinical efforts are being targeted at the molecular level characterization of triple-negative breast cancer across emerging therapeutic targets such as epigenetic proteins, PARP1, androgen receptors, receptor and non-receptor tyrosine kinases, and immune checkpoints.

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Company Profiles

These initiatives are anticipated to boost revenue growth of the triple-negative breast cancer treatment market. In a new research study, Persistence Market Research estimates the globaltriple-negative breast cancer treatment marketrevenue to cross US$ 720 Mn by 2026 from an estimated valuation of just under US$ 505 Mn in 2018. This is indicative of a CAGR of 4.7% during the period 2018 to 2026.

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Development of generics is another key opportunity area in the triple-negative breast cancer treatment market. With the rapidly expanding number of cancer cases across the world, there is a need for effective cancer management, including the provision of better and more efficient drugs.

Developing economies are faced with challenges on several fronts including paucity of funds and lack of proper treatment options, calling for more innovative approaches to affordable healthcare. The availability of biosimilars and affordable generic anti-cancer drugs in developing regions is expected to significantly reduce the burden of cancer care.

A projected cost reduction to the tune of more than 30% 40% and extended use of generic drugs is expected to reduce overall cancer treatment costs, thereby increasing the treatment rate for triple-negative breast cancer. This is further anticipated to create lucrative growth opportunities in the global triple-negative breast cancer treatment market.

Advances in Cancer Treatment and Introduction of Innovative Cancer Treatment Drugs to Boost Revenue Growth of the Triple-Negative Breast Cancer Treatment Market

Breast cancer is one of the most common types of cancer in women, and over the years, pharmaceutical and life sciences companies have been conducting advanced research and development activities to devise newer treatment options and drugs to treat breast cancer.

Several new drug formulations are currently in the pipeline in different stages of clinical development and this is expected to bode well for the triple-negative breast cancer treatment market. Innovation in oncology therapeutics has shifted focus towards an outcome based approach to cancer care, with an increasing emphasis on combination drugs and newer therapeutic modalities.

This is further likely to put the global triple-negative breast cancer treatment market on a positive growth trajectory in the coming years.

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Combination Therapy and Advancements in Nano Medicine Research Trending the Triple-Negative Breast Cancer Treatment Market

One of the biggest trends being observed in the global market for triple-negative breast cancer treatment is the shift towards combination therapy. Companies in the global triple-negative breast cancer treatment market are conducting clinical trials for combination therapies by collaborating with other players in the market.

Combination therapies are the latest innovation in the field of oncology and the combination of therapeutic drugs with chemotherapy is said to be an effective protocol for the treatment of triple-negative breast cancer.

Another huge trend in the triple-negative breast cancer treatment market is the emergence of nanotechnology as an efficient tool in the clinical management of critical diseases such as triple-negative breast cancer. It has been observed that the combination of gold nanoparticles and folic acid results in higher cell entry rate in both in-vitro and in-vivo models, indicative of the fact that folate receptors are effective targeted therapies for the treatment of triple-negative breast cancer.

Nanoparticles facilitate systematic and efficient delivery of drugs and agents to the site of the tumor. Advanced R&D in nanotechnology and nano medicine is one of the top trends likely to impact the global triple-negative breast cancer treatment market in the years to come.

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Triple Negative Breast Cancer Treatment Market to Grow at Stellar CAGR Double In% During the Forecast Period 2026 - Cole of Duty

PDF | What Is The Impact Of COVID 19 On Nano-Silicon Dioxide Market? | Eon Market Research Analysis Report 2020 – MR Invasion

Posted on May 3, 2020 by Danzig

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PDF | What Is The Impact Of COVID 19 On Nano-Silicon Dioxide Market? | Eon Market Research Analysis Report 2020 - MR Invasion

The Covid-19 Riddle: Why Does the Virus Wallop Some Places and Spare Others? – The New York Times

Posted on May 3, 2020 by Danzig

The coronavirus has killed so many people in Iran that the country has resorted to mass burials, but in neighboring Iraq, the body count is fewer than 100.

The Dominican Republic has reported nearly 7,600 cases of the virus. Just across the border, Haiti has recorded about 85.

In Indonesia, thousands are believed to have died of the coronavirus. In nearby Malaysia, a strict lockdown has kept fatalities to about 100.

The coronavirus has touched almost every country on earth, but its impact has seemed capricious. Global metropolises like New York, Paris and London have been devastated, while teeming cities like Bangkok, Baghdad, New Delhi and Lagos have, so far, largely been spared.

The question of why the virus has overwhelmed some places and left others relatively untouched is a puzzle that has spawned numerous theories and speculations but no definitive answers. That knowledge could have profound implications for how countries respond to the virus, for determining who is at risk and for knowing when its safe to go out again.

There are already hundreds of studies underway around the world looking into how demographics, pre-existing conditions and genetics might affect the wide variation in impact.

Doctors in Saudi Arabia are studying whether genetic differences may help explain varying levels of severity in Covid-19 cases among Saudi Arabs, while scientists in Brazil are looking into the relationship between genetics and Covid-19 complications. Teams in multiple countries are studying if common hypertension medications might worsen the diseases severity and whether a particular tuberculosis vaccine might do the opposite.

Many developing nations with hot climates and young populations have escaped the worst, suggesting that temperature and demographics could be factors. But countries like Peru, Indonesia and Brazil, tropical countries in the throes of growing epidemics, throw cold water on that idea.

Draconian social-distancing and early lockdown measures have clearly been effective, but Myanmar and Cambodia did neither and have reported few cases.

One theory that is unproven but impossible to refute: maybe the virus just hasnt gotten to those countries yet. Russia and Turkey appeared to be fine until, suddenly, they were not.

Time may still prove the greatest equalizer: The Spanish flu that broke out in the United States in 1918 seemed to die down during the summer only to come roaring back with a deadlier strain in the fall, and a third wave the following year. It eventually reached far-flung places like islands in Alaska and the South Pacific and infected a third of the worlds population.

We are really early in this disease, said Dr. Ashish Jha, the director of the Harvard Global Health Research Institute. If this were a baseball game, it would be the second inning and theres no reason to think that by the ninth inning the rest of the world that looks now like it hasnt been affected wont become like other places.

Doctors who study infectious diseases around the world say they do not have enough data yet to get a full epidemiological picture, and that gaps in information in many countries make it dangerous to draw conclusions. Testing is woeful in many places, leading to vast underestimates of the viruss progress, and deaths are almost certainly undercounted.

Still, the broad patterns are clear. Even in places with abysmal record-keeping and broken health systems, mass burials or hospitals turning away sick people by the thousands would be hard to miss, and a number of places are just not seeing them at least not yet.

Interviews with more than two dozen infectious disease experts, health officials, epidemiologists and academics around the globe suggest four main factors that could help explain where the virus thrives and where it doesnt: demographics, culture, environment and the speed of government responses.

Each possible explanation comes with considerable caveats and confounding counter-evidence. If an aging population is the most vulnerable, for instance, Japan should be at the top of the list. It is far from it. Nonetheless these are the factors that experts find the most persuasive.

Many countries that have escaped mass epidemics have relatively younger populations.

Young people are more likely to contract mild or asymptomatic cases that are less transmissible to others, said Robert Bollinger, a professor of infectious diseases at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine. And they are less likely to have certain health problems that can make Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, particularly deadly, according to the World Health Organization.

Africa with about 45,000 reported cases, a tiny fraction of its 1.3 billion people is the worlds youngest continent, with more than 60 percent of its population under age 25. In Thailand and Najaf, Iraq, local health officials found that the 20-to-29 age group had the highest rate of infection but often showed few symptoms.

By contrast, the national median age in Italy, one of the hardest hit countries, is more than 45. The average age of those who died of Covid-19 there was around 80.

Younger people tend to have stronger immune systems, which can result in milder symptoms, said Josip Car, an expert in population and global health at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.

In Singapore and Saudi Arabia, for instance, most of the infections are among foreign migrant workers, many of them living in cramped dormitories. However, many of those workers are young and fit, and have not required hospitalization.

Along with youth, relative good health can lessen the impact of the virus among those who are infected, while certain pre-existing conditions notably hypertension, diabetes and obesity can worsen the severity, researchers in the United States say.

There are notable exceptions to the demographic theory. Japan, with the worlds oldest average population, has recorded fewer than 520 deaths, although its caseload has risen with increased testing.

The Guayas region of Ecuador, the epicenter of an outbreak that may have claimed up to 7,000 lives, is one of the youngest in the country, with only 11 percent of its residents over 60 years old.

And Dr. Jha of Harvard warns that some young people who are not showing symptoms are also highly contagious for reasons that are not well understood.

Cultural factors, like the social distancing that is built into certain societies, may give some countries more protection, epidemiologists said.

In Thailand and India, where virus numbers are relatively low, people greet each other at a distance, with palms joined together as in prayer. In Japan and South Korea, people bow, and long before the coronavirus arrived, they tended to wear face masks when feeling unwell.

In much of the developing world, the custom of caring for the elderly at home leads to fewer nursing homes, which have been tinder for tragic outbreaks in the West.

However, there are notable exceptions to the cultural distancing theory. In many parts of the Middle East, such as Iraq and the Persian Gulf countries, men often embrace or shake hands on meeting, yet most are not getting sick.

What might be called national distancing has also proven advantageous. Countries that are relatively isolated have reaped health benefits from their seclusion.

Far-flung nations, such as some in the South Pacific and parts of sub-Saharan Africa, have not been as inundated with visitors bringing the virus with them. Health experts in Africa cite limited travel from abroad as perhaps the main reason for the continents relatively low infection rate.

Countries that are less accessible for political reasons, like Venezuela, or because of conflict, like Syria and Libya, have also been somewhat shielded by the lack of travelers, as have countries like Lebanon and Iraq, which have endured widespread protests in recent months.

The lack of public transportation in developing countries may have also reduced the spread of the virus there.

The geography of the outbreak which spread rapidly during the winter in temperate zone countries like Italy and the United States and was virtually unseen in warmer countries such as Chad or Guyana seemed to suggest that the virus did not take well to heat. Other coronaviruses, such as ones that cause the common cold, are less contagious in warmer, moist climates.

But researchers say the idea that hot weather alone can repel the virus is wishful thinking.

Some of the worst outbreaks in the developing world have been in places like the Amazonas region of Brazil, as tropical a place as any.

The best guess is that summer conditions will help but are unlikely by themselves to lead to significant slowing of growth or to a decline in cases, said Marc Lipsitch, the director of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at Harvard University.

The virus that causes Covid-19 appears to be so contagious as to mitigate any beneficial effect of heat and humidity, said Dr. Raul Rabadan, a computational biologist at Columbia University.

But other aspects of warm climates, like people spending more time outside, could help.

People living indoors within enclosed environments may promote virus recirculation, increasing the chance of contracting the disease, said Mr. Car of Nanyang Technological University.

The ultraviolet rays of direct sunlight inhibit the growth of this coronavirus, according to a study by ecological modelers at the University of Connecticut. So surfaces in sunny places may be less likely to remain contaminated, but transmission usually occurs through contact with an infected person, not by touching a surface.

No scientist has proposed that beaming light inside an infected person, as President Trump suggested, would be an effective cure. And tropical conditions may have even lulled some people into a false sense of security.

People were saying Its hot here, nothing will happen to me, said Dr. Domnica Cevallos, a medical investigator in Ecuador. Some were even going out on purpose to sunbathe, thinking it would protect them from infection.

Countries that locked down early, like Vietnam and Greece, have been able to avoid out-of-control contagions, evidence of the power of strict social distancing and quarantines to contain the virus.

In Africa, countries with bitter experience with killers like H.I.V., drug-resistant tuberculosis and Ebola knew the drill and reacted quickly.

Airport staff from Sierra Leone to Uganda were taking temperatures (since found to be a less effective measure) and contact details and wearing masks long before their counterparts in the United States and Europe took such precautions.

Senegal and Rwanda closed their borders and announced curfews when they still had very few cases. Health ministries began contact tracing early.

All this happened in a region where health ministries had come to rely on money, personnel and supplies from foreign donors, many of which had to turn their attention to outbreaks in their own countries, said Catherine Kyobutungi, executive director of the African Population and Health Research Center.

Countries wake up one day and theyre like, OK, the weight of the country rests on our shoulders, so we need to step up, she said. And they have. Some of the responses have been beautiful to behold, honestly.

Sierra Leone repurposed disease-tracking protocols that had been established in the wake of the Ebola outbreak in 2014, in which almost 4,000 people died there. The government set up emergency operations centers in every district and recruited 14,000 community health workers, 1,500 of whom are being trained as contact tracers, even though Sierra Leone has only about 155 confirmed cases.

It is not clear, however, who will pay for their salaries or for expenses like motorcycles and raincoats to keep them operating during the coming wet season.

Uganda, which also suffered during the Ebola contagion, quickly quarantined travelers from Dubai after the first case of coronavirus arrived from there. Authorities also tracked down about 800 others who had traveled from Dubai in previous weeks.

The Ugandan health authorities are also testing around 1,000 truck drivers a day. But many of those who test positive have come from Tanzania and Kenya, countries that are not monitoring as aggressively, leading to worries that the virus will keep penetrating porous borders.

Lockdowns, with bans on religious conclaves and spectator sporting events, clearly work, the World Health Organization says. More than a month after closing national borders, schools and most businesses, countries from Thailand to Jordan have seen new infections drop.

In the Middle East, the widespread shuttering of mosques, shrines and churches happened relatively early and probably helped stem the spread in many countries.

A notable exception was Iran, which did not close some of its largest shrines until March 18, a full month after it registered its first case in the pilgrimage city of Qum. The epidemic spread quickly from there, killing thousands in the country and spreading the virus across borders as pilgrims returned home.

As effective as lockdowns are, in countries lacking a strong social safety net and those where most people work in the informal economy, orders closing businesses and requiring people to shelter in place will be difficult to maintain for long. When people are forced to choose between social distancing and feeding their families, they are choosing the latter.

Counter-intuitively, some countries where authorities reacted late and with spotty enforcement of lockdowns appear to have been spared. Cambodia and Laos both had brief spates of infections when few social distancing measures were in place but neither has recorded a new case in about three weeks.

Lebanon, whose Muslim and Christian citizens often go on pilgrimages respectively to Iran and Italy, places rife with the virus, should have had high numbers of infections. It has not.

We just didnt see what we were expecting, said Dr. Roy Nasnas, an infectious disease consultant at the University Hospital Geitaoui in Beirut. We dont know why.

Finally, most experts agree that there may be no single reason for some countries to be hit and others missed. The answer is likely to be some combination of the above factors, as well as one other mentioned by researchers: sheer luck.

Countries with the same culture and climate could have vastly different outcomes if one infected person attends a crowded social occasion, turning it into what researchers call a super-spreader event.

That happened when a passenger infected 634 people on the Diamond Princess cruise ship off the coast of Japan, when an infected guest attended a large funeral in Albany, Ga., and when a 61-year-old woman went to church in Daegu, South Korea, spreading the disease to hundreds of congregants and then to thousands of other Koreans.

Because an infected person may not experience symptoms for a week or more, if at all, the disease spreads under the radar, exponentially and seemingly at random. Had the woman in Daegu stayed home that Sunday in February, the outbreak in South Korea might have been less than half of what it is.

Some countries that should have been inundated are not, leaving researchers scratching their heads.

Thailand reported the first confirmed case of coronavirus outside of China in mid-January, from a traveler from Wuhan, the Chinese city where the pandemic is thought to have begun. In those critical weeks, Thailand continued to welcome an influx of Chinese visitors. For some reason, these tourists did not set off exponential local transmission.

And when countries do all the wrong things and still end up seemingly not as battered by the virus as one would expect, go figure.

In Indonesia, we have a health minister who believes you can pray away Covid, and we have too little testing, said Dr. Pandu Riono, an infectious disease specialist at the University of Indonesia. But we are lucky we have so many islands in our country that limit travel and maybe infection.

Theres nothing else were doing right, he added.

Original post:

The Covid-19 Riddle: Why Does the Virus Wallop Some Places and Spare Others? - The New York Times

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