What GAO Found
The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), a separately organized agency within the Department of Energy (DOE), has identified a range of risks facing the W80-4 nuclear warhead life extension program (LEP)including risks related to developing new technologies and manufacturing processes as well as reestablishing dormant production capabilities. NNSA is managing these risks using a variety of processes and tools, such as a classified risk database. However, NNSA has introduced potential risk to the program by adopting a date (September 2025) for the delivery of the program's first production unit (FPU) that is more than 1 year earlier than the date projected by the program's own schedule risk analysis process (see figure). NNSA and Department of Defense (DOD) officials said that they adopted the September 2025 date partly because the National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2015 specifies that NNSA must deliver the first warhead unit by the end of fiscal year 2025, as well as to free up resources for future LEPs. However, the statute allows DOE to obtain an extension, and, according to best practices identified in GAO's prior work, program schedules should avoid date constraints that do not reflect program realities. Adopting an FPU date more consistent with the date range identified as realistic in the W80-4 program's schedule risk analysis, or justifying an alternative date based on other factors, would allow NNSA to better inform decision makers and improve alignment between schedules for the W80-4 program and DOD's long-range standoff missile (LRSO) program.
W80-4 Life Extension Program Phases and Milestone Dates
NNSA substantially incorporated best practices in developing the preliminary lifecycle cost estimate for the W80-4 LEP, as reflected in the LEP's weapon design and cost report. GAO assessed the W80-4 program's cost estimate of $11.2 billion against the four characteristics of a high quality, reliable cost estimate: comprehensive, well-documented, accurate, and credible. To develop a comprehensive cost estimate, NNSA instituted processes to help ensure consistency across the program. The program also provided detailed documentation to substantiate its estimate and assumptions. To help ensure accuracy, the cost estimate drew on historic data from prior LEPs. Finally, to support a credible estimate, NNSA reconciled the program estimate with an independent cost estimate. GAO considers a cost estimate to be reliable if the overall assessment ratings for each of the four characteristics are substantially or fully metas was the case with the W80-4 program's cost estimate in its weapon design and cost report, which substantially met each characteristic.
To maintain and modernize the U.S. nuclear arsenal, NNSA and DOD conduct LEPs. In 2014, they began an LEP to produce a warhead, the W80-4, to be carried on the LRSO missile. In February 2019, NNSA adopted an FPU delivery date of fiscal year 2025 for the W80-4 LEP, at an estimated cost of about $11.2 billion over the life of the program.
The explanatory statement accompanying the 2018 appropriation included a provision for GAO to review the W80-4 LEP. This report examines, among other objectives, (1) the risks NNSA has identified for the W80-4 LEP, and processes it has established to manage them, and (2) the extent to which NNSA's lifecycle cost estimate for the LEP aligned with best practices. GAO reviewed NNSA's risk management database and other program information; visited four NNSA sites; interviewed NNSA and DOD officials; and assessed the program's cost estimate using best practices established in prior GAO work.
GAO is making two recommendations, including that NNSA adopt a W80-4 program FPU delivery date based on the program's schedule risk analysis, or document its justification for not doing so. NNSA generally disagreed with GAO's recommendations. GAO continues to believe that its recommendations are valid, as discussed in the report.
For more information, contact Allison B. Bawden at (202) 512-3841 or bawdena@gao.gov.
View post:
- About Us - Life Extension - December 19th, 2016 [December 19th, 2016]
- Real Life Extension: Caloric Restriction or Intermittent ... - January 27th, 2017 [January 27th, 2017]
- Bruce Power invests millions in maintenance | The London Free Press - London Free Press - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Extension Spotlight: The importance of a good education | Life ... - NRToday.com - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- From Confines Of Russia, Controversial Stem-Cell Surgeon Tries To Weather Scandal - RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Volm Companies' Matt Alexander Talks Light-Blocker Half-N-Half Bags - And Now U Know - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Plymouth warship HMS Argyll sets sail again after 20-month refit - Plymouth Herald - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- 'Orphan Black' Final Season Premiere Date Set at BBC America - Yahoo TV (blog) - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Radical Life Extension Is Already Here, But We're Doing it ... - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Biotechnology xpert Jamie Metzl addresses realities of genetics revolution, Feb. 9 - Vail Daily News - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- ATS Automation Tooling Systems' (ATSAF) CEO Anthony Caputo on Q3 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript - Seeking Alpha - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- Weslaco ISD Students Re-Stripe Crosswalk to Promote School Zone Safety - RGVProud - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- There is No Limit to Human Life Extension - Futurism - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- Weaving the practice of self-compassion into your life - Michigan State University Extension - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Italian company competes for $16B US Air Force jet trainer contract - Dayton Daily News - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Human Life Could Be Extended Indefinitely, Study Suggests - EconoTimes - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- DARPA hits snag in GEO satellite service plan - Network World - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- My Mother is 100. She Does't Need Andrew Weil's 'Healthy Aging' You do - The Good Men Project - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Orbital ATK Sues DARPA Over Satellite-Repairing Robots | Inverse - Inverse - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Double-blind, randomized crossover study of intravenous infusion of magnesium sulfate - PR Newswire (press release) - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- SRS's Melter 2 to be replaced | News | northaugustastar.com - The Star - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- The Next Pseudoscience Health Craze Is All About Genetics - Gizmodo - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- These Serious Marathoners Lived 19 Years Longer Than Average - Runner's World - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Why Do People Want to Live So Long, Anyway? - TIME - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- How Silicon Valley Is Trying to Hack Its Way Into a Longer Life - TIME - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Major South African coal extension project on cards South32 - Creamer Media's Mining Weekly - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- When Screening for Disease, Risk is as Important to Consider as ... - University of Virginia - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- John Killebrew: Honoring a life of service - Delta Farm Press - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- No limit to how long we could extend our lives, say researchers - EWN - Eyewitness News - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- Extension: Taking care of the rocks in your life - Lifestyle - The ... - Carthage Press - February 21st, 2017 [February 21st, 2017]
- Long life expectancy for Leopard [IDEX17D3] - IHS Jane's 360 - February 21st, 2017 [February 21st, 2017]
- A UO lab digs into worms in the quest to lengthen human life - AroundtheO - February 22nd, 2017 [February 22nd, 2017]
- L3 MAPPS to Supply Digital Control Computer System Hardware for Bruce Unit 6, Supporting Life Extension and ... - Nuclear Street - Nuclear Power Plant... - February 22nd, 2017 [February 22nd, 2017]
- Kambalda faces future with no nickel output - The West Australian - February 23rd, 2017 [February 23rd, 2017]
- L3 MAPPS to Supply Digital Control Computer System Hardware for ... - Nuclear Street - Nuclear Power Plant News, Jobs, and Careers (press release)... - February 23rd, 2017 [February 23rd, 2017]
- This Company With Anti-Aging Drug Is Secretly Preparing For Trump's New FDA - Forbes - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]
- Weather Radar in Amarillo Gets Upgrade - Guymondailyherald - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]
- PACKAGING INNOVATIONS 2017: Anti-microbial absorbent pads ... - WorldPressOnline (press release) - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]
- A business case for wind farm lifetime extension - Windpower Engineering (press release) - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]
- Mount Tam With Anti-Aging Drug Is Secretly Preparing For Trump's New FDA - ValueWalk - March 1st, 2017 [March 1st, 2017]
- Derek Carr passionate about Silver and Black: 'I'm a Raider for life' - The Mercury News - March 1st, 2017 [March 1st, 2017]
- Bruce Power Life Extension Project On Top - Bayshore Broadcasting News Centre - March 1st, 2017 [March 1st, 2017]
- Derek Carr on Contract Extension: I'm a Raider for life - Just Blog Baby (blog) - March 2nd, 2017 [March 2nd, 2017]
- How this Baltimore company is using AI to make supplements smarter - Technical.ly Brooklyn - March 3rd, 2017 [March 3rd, 2017]
- Rio cut takes the shine off Argyle - The West Australian - March 4th, 2017 [March 4th, 2017]
- Bruce Power Life-Extension Program ranked top infrastructure project of 2017 - southwesternontario.ca - March 8th, 2017 [March 8th, 2017]
- Metformin And Rapamycin: Signs Of (Extended) Life? How To Monetize? - Seeking Alpha - March 9th, 2017 [March 9th, 2017]
- Il-76 flown beyond service life before fatal engine explosion - Flightglobal - March 11th, 2017 [March 11th, 2017]
- Your Questions About Silicon Valley's Quest to Live Forever, Answered - The New Yorker - April 8th, 2017 [April 8th, 2017]
- Cormorant, Griffon upgrade projects get new lift - Skies Magazine (press release) - June 6th, 2017 [June 6th, 2017]
- Garoppolo wants to play, open to extension - ESPN - June 6th, 2017 [June 6th, 2017]
- Refixia (nonacog beta pegol; N9-GP) approved - GlobeNewswire (press release) - June 6th, 2017 [June 6th, 2017]
- New life breathed into decades-old dream of a Cavendish extension ... - Montreal Gazette - June 6th, 2017 [June 6th, 2017]
- Some JSTARS aircraft could fly into 2034 - Flightglobal - June 7th, 2017 [June 7th, 2017]
- Cormorant, Griffon upgrade projects get new lift - Vertical Magazine (press release) - June 7th, 2017 [June 7th, 2017]
- The Ugly: Post #3 on the NNSA's FY2018 Budget Request - All Things Nuclear - June 7th, 2017 [June 7th, 2017]
- Kincardine Company To Add Jobs To Support Bruce Power - BlackburnNews.com - June 8th, 2017 [June 8th, 2017]
- Latin American sisters in US 'build bridges' during 'challenging time' - Catholic News Service - June 8th, 2017 [June 8th, 2017]
- Modernizing Nuclear Deterrents No. 1 Priority, DoD Officials Tell ... - Department of Defense - June 8th, 2017 [June 8th, 2017]
- EXTENSION CORNER: It's crucial for producers to know how to manage weeds - Gadsden Times - June 9th, 2017 [June 9th, 2017]
- Robot Bina48 Makes a Guest Appearance at 'Stitch and Bitch' - Seven Days - June 10th, 2017 [June 10th, 2017]
- Patriots WR Julian Edelman's father would love his son to be "a Patriot for life" - Pats Pulpit - June 11th, 2017 [June 11th, 2017]
- Orphan Black: 3 Major Revelations From the Season 5 Premiere - TV Guide (blog) - June 11th, 2017 [June 11th, 2017]
- GARDENING: Harvest tomatoes before the birds do - Odessa American - June 11th, 2017 [June 11th, 2017]
- 'Orphan Black' Season 5 Premiere Recap: Life is Tough on and off the Island - BuddyTV (blog) - June 12th, 2017 [June 12th, 2017]
- Griffon helicopter replacement not in the cards for the Liberals anytime soon - Ottawa Citizen - June 12th, 2017 [June 12th, 2017]
- DFI Marketing uses new post-harvest technology with melon exports - The Packer - June 13th, 2017 [June 13th, 2017]
- Elio Motors Given An Extension To Bring Its Three-Wheeled Vehicle ... - Jalopnik - June 13th, 2017 [June 13th, 2017]
- Rec tax extension moves closer to November ballot - West Life News - June 14th, 2017 [June 14th, 2017]
- Bioverativ announces FDA acceptance of Investigational New Drug ... - EconoTimes - June 14th, 2017 [June 14th, 2017]
- Charlie Gard: European Court orders life support extension - BBC News - June 14th, 2017 [June 14th, 2017]
- Extension Spotlight: Are you ready to preserve the harvest? | Life ... - NRToday.com - June 14th, 2017 [June 14th, 2017]
- The Case of the Missing Numbers - All Things Nuclear - June 16th, 2017 [June 16th, 2017]
- Hacking the human lifespan / Boing Boing - Boing Boing - June 17th, 2017 [June 17th, 2017]
- CNO Richardson: Perry Frigates Only Inactive Hulls Navy Considering Returning to Active Fleet; DDG Life Extension ... - USNI News - June 17th, 2017 [June 17th, 2017]
- USAF seeks to expand F-16 life-extension program - Quwa - Quwa Defence News & Analysis Group - June 20th, 2017 [June 20th, 2017]
- Baker proposes $500M life sciences extension - Worcester Business Journal - June 20th, 2017 [June 20th, 2017]
- Life Extension News | March 2017 Issue | Life Enhancement ... - June 21st, 2017 [June 21st, 2017]
- Pop-culture-palooza - Mountain View Voice - June 21st, 2017 [June 21st, 2017]
- Kids experience a day in the life of a scientist - Scottsbluff Star Herald - June 23rd, 2017 [June 23rd, 2017]