SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19. (Port City Daily photo illustration/Courtesy CDC)

WILMINGTON The last two weeks saw some light at the end of the tunnel, with some local restrictions lifted and hope for a phased state-wide reopening. Still, tensions continue to mount over how and when to fully reopen businesses and public spaces.

What follows is a snapshot that, at least for the time being, covers some of the major moving parts of the Covid-19 situation: the states new metrics for reopening, restrictions and resistance to those restrictions, and what the future beyond reopening in the next months might hold.

If youre looking for resources, you can find some useful ones here:Covid-19 resource roundup: Wilmington-area small businesses, childcare, health, info [Free read]. If youre looking for whats still open, you can find a directory of local businesseshere.

Of course, its hard to recap the whole week, so you can find all of Port City Dailysfree reporting on Covid-19 here.We also encourage you to send comments, questions, and concerns to info@portcitydaily.com.

Late last month, Governor Roy Cooper announced the state was looking at a three-phase reopening plan, beginning as soon as May 8 (when the current stay-at-home order expires). The plan looks to four variables to decide when to move ahead into each new phase: (1) number of Covid-like cases, (2) positive laboratory tests, (3) percentage of total tests that come back positive, and (4) hospitalization.

Take a deep dive into the place with our podcast, here.

Its important to note that these variable go beyond just the number of new cases. While some news outlets continue to announce daily increases, at least some of those dramatic efforts to ramp up testing meaning those with minor symptoms, not just serious respiratory issues, are getting counted now. As Dr. Mandy Cohen, secretary of the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services, put it, the more you test, the more cases youll find.

So where are things right now? Unfortunately, several of the metrics continue to trend slightly upward, including the number of hospitalizations (at any given time) in the graph above.

Below, graphics based on data from NCDHHS on Covid-like cases, testing, and positive tests.

Cases with symptoms similar to Covid-19 Mild COVID-19 illness presents with symptoms similar to influenza-like illness, so surveillance systems that have historically been used during influenza seasons are being used to track trends of mild COVID-19 illness and allow for comparison with prior influenza seasons. It also includes influenza, allowing the state to determine the level of Covid-19 cases above and beyond typical levels of flu cases, according to NCDHHS.

Laboratory-confirmed cases Unfortunately, it doesnt yet look like the case numbers are leveling off, let alone decreasing. However, thats not the whole story (see percentage of tests, below).

Percentage of tests that come back positive Because of increased testing supplies and aggressive efforts to implement those tests, a wider portion of the population is being tested. That means, to some extent, increased numbers of cases arent necessarily new cases as much as they are previously undocumented ones. In other words, its just a better picture of whats out there.

To that end, the percentage of tests that come back positive rather than just the total number of positives is the more important data figure. And, in that department, the percentage of positive cases do appear to be leveling and even decreasing.

This week, New Hanover County allowed its restrictions (which went beyond Governor Coopers executive orders) to lapse, leaving it up to beach towns and Wilmington whether or not to keep stricter rules.

Beach towns including Wrightsville Beach and Carolina Beach have opened access points and allowed limited activities, mostly mobile exercise (i.e. running is ok, yoga is not) and requiring social distancing. While the mayors of those towns have said relaxed rules could be put back in place, theres also hope for additional restrictions to be lifted. (For example, on Friday, Carolina Beach announced it would allow fishing from the public beach strand starting Monday).

Its worth noting that some of the moves including the selective reopening of fishing piers in Wrightsville Beach and Kure Beach seem to pose some serious state constitutional issues.

Wilmington continued its State of Emergency (and will formally approve it on Tuesday), maintaining six of the nine additional restrictions initially imposed by the county in April. These include the closure of short-term rentals, motels, and hotels (except were in accordance with government efforts to provide emergency lodging and resource management). It also includes keeping public playgrounds and sports facilities (except golf, tennis, and pickleball) closed.

The updated state of emergency does allow for take-out food from restaurants, relaxing the curbside-only policy put in place in March.

Additionally, auto sales are allowed after considerable back-and-forth between the local dealers (backed by the statewide dealership lobby) and local leaders.

Much of the states plan for reopening is based on the best and latest data available but theres a great deal of uncertainty. It remains unclear what the diseases actual mortality rate is, how widespread it actually is right now, and perhaps most importantly whether or not those who get the disease develop lasting immunity (or any immunity at all).

Immunity is a spectrum, after all. With some viruses like Chickenpox humans develop lifelong immunity. With others like HIV theres nearly no protection at all. It remains unclear where SARS-CoV-2 lies on the spectrum (for a good overview,check out Scientific Americans article on the issue).

This uncertainty has led to speculation about whether there will be a second wave of Covid-19 in the fall of 2020. And, while recent polling by Meredith College indicated that three out of four North Carolinians supported Governor Coopers restrictions, its worth considering how many would be willing to go through another round of lock-downs and closures after just a few months.

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Covid-19 recap: Benchmarks, restrictions, and round two? - Port City Daily