On Thursday night, Earth might pass through the trail of a comet that humans have never directly observed, but which has lit up our skies with fantastic outbursts of hundreds of meteors for at least the past century.
The meteors are called the alpha Monocerotids, because they are located in the direction of the constellation Monoceros, or the Unicorn. For this reason, the meteors are sometimes called the unicorn shower.
The alpha Monocerotids are chunks of dust that broke off of an unobserved comet and then burn up in Earths atmosphere to create shooting stars. The comets long debris trail has illuminated the night skies in the past, with particularly bright meteor showers in 1925, 1935, 1985, and 1995.
Technically, the alpha Monocerotids occur every year, but they normally only produce a small smattering of shooting stars. This is likely because Earth usually passes through the edge of the stream, rather than getting smacked by the more clustered trail in the center.
Earlier this month, meteor shower experts Peter Jenniskens of the SETI Institute and NASA Ames Research Center and Esko Lyytinen of the Finnish Fireball Network predicted that Earth is likely to pass through or near this meteor-dense part of the alpha Monocerotids rubble stream again on Thursday night.
Because this stream is fairly thin, Jenniskens and Lyytinen said that the shower would be very short-livedno longer than 40 minutesbut that it could produce hundreds of meteors during that outburst. The pair projected that this outburst would probably peak around 11:50 pm ET and would be visible to skywatchers in eastern North America, western Europe, and South America. Jenniskens had previously predicted the 1995 event before it occurred.
But before you get hyped to see this rare meteoric event, you might want to read this blog post by Bill Cooke, who leads NASAs Meteoroid Environment Office. After revisiting the known data about the shower, Cooke became skeptical and came to the conclusion that there is a pretty good chance there may be no outburst at all, according to the post. If there is one, it might not be the spectacle that some stargazers imagined.
The uncertainty stems from the unknown amount of time it takes this mysterious comet to complete an orbit around the Sun. Scientists know the orbital periods of comets that produce famous meteor showers such as the Leonids and Perseids, but Jenniskens and Lyytinen had to calculate a rough estimate for the comet associated with the alpha Monocerotids, since it has not been directly observed.
Based on the timing of past outbursts, the pair suggests that this comet travels around the Sun once every 500 years or so.
Cooke thinks this estimate is too rough to clearly herald another brilliant outburst. The intensity of the outburst is very dependent on the size of the parent comets orbit, he pointed out. If it is much smaller, or larger, the distance from the stream center will be bigger, and there will not be any sky show, just the normal [alpha Monocerotids], puttering along with their normal rate of three or so meteors per hour.
[S]ince we have not yet discovered this mysterious parent comet, he adds, who knows how close the estimate of the orbit is to the actual?
Thats not to suggest that there wont be a beautiful shower with hundreds of visible meteors tonight. In fact, Cooke said that if there is, the number of meteors will be provide some much-needed data for calculating a more exact orbit for the unidentified comet.
As Cooke concludes, its never a bad idea to set aside some time to gaze at the night sky. But if you are looking forward to a radiant light show, you may want to to temper your expectations, embrace the mystery, and evaluate these dueling meteor predictions in real time.
View original post here:
A Comet Weve Never Seen Has Been Lighting Up the Sky for 100 Years - Free
- Comet - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia - November 21st, 2013 [November 21st, 2013]
- Comets - The Nine Planets - November 21st, 2013 [November 21st, 2013]
- Comets - Astronomy For Kids - KidsAstronomy.com - November 21st, 2013 [November 21st, 2013]
- Views of the Solar System: Comets - November 21st, 2013 [November 21st, 2013]
- Comets (extra footage) - Video - November 21st, 2013 [November 21st, 2013]
- Solar flare update. 6 comets! Nov 28th ISON perihelion! - Video - November 21st, 2013 [November 21st, 2013]
- Comets game 2end goal - Video - November 21st, 2013 [November 21st, 2013]
- Missouri Comets vs. Milwaukee Wave - Video - November 21st, 2013 [November 21st, 2013]
- Football: Comets Advance Past Momence - Video - November 21st, 2013 [November 21st, 2013]
- Caliber Cheer Comets Nov 9 2013 - Video - November 21st, 2013 [November 21st, 2013]
- Two Comets Are About to Fly By Mercury | NASA Space Science HD Video - Video - November 21st, 2013 [November 21st, 2013]
- Comets win on tiebreaker - December 20th, 2013 [December 20th, 2013]
- Comets fend off Wildcat attack - December 20th, 2013 [December 20th, 2013]
- Free throws bring Comets down - December 20th, 2013 [December 20th, 2013]
- Comets continue solid play on their home ice - December 20th, 2013 [December 20th, 2013]
- Comets Beat Heat 4-2 - December 20th, 2013 [December 20th, 2013]
- Comets in the Community - December 20th, 2013 [December 20th, 2013]
- Comets pick up third straight win over Heat - December 20th, 2013 [December 20th, 2013]
- Comets Welcome Back Old Rival - December 20th, 2013 [December 20th, 2013]
- Comets Cool Abbotsford 4-2 - December 20th, 2013 [December 20th, 2013]
- Comets – Facts and Information about Comets | Space.com - December 20th, 2013 [December 20th, 2013]
- Comets v Wave 121313 Highlights - Video - December 20th, 2013 [December 20th, 2013]
- Highlights - Comets vs. Monsters 12/15/13 - Video - December 20th, 2013 [December 20th, 2013]
- Weekly Space Hangout - Preventing Asteroids, More Comets, Worldview Balloon - Video - December 20th, 2013 [December 20th, 2013]
- Pens 1 - Comets 0 - Video - December 20th, 2013 [December 20th, 2013]
- Milwaukee Waves Cheap Shot Vs. Missouri Comets - 12.13.13 - Video - December 20th, 2013 [December 20th, 2013]
- Hometown Nights - Tarso Miller and the Wild Comets - Video - December 20th, 2013 [December 20th, 2013]
- Hangout with Comets Nova and Deathlyhall - Video - December 20th, 2013 [December 20th, 2013]
- Comets vs St. Louis Ambush - Video - December 20th, 2013 [December 20th, 2013]
- Shake, Rattle and Roll Bill Haley and His Comets - Sheet Music - Easy Alto Sax Version - Video - December 20th, 2013 [December 20th, 2013]
- Comets Shut Out Heat 3-0 - December 21st, 2013 [December 21st, 2013]
- Administration - December 21st, 2013 [December 21st, 2013]
- Bill Haley And His Comets ' R-O-C-K' 78 rpm - Video - December 21st, 2013 [December 21st, 2013]
- Bill Haley And His Comets ' The Saints Rock 'N Roll' 78 rpm - Video - December 21st, 2013 [December 21st, 2013]
- Nicklas Jensen's Shootout Winning Deke 12-15-13 - Video - December 21st, 2013 [December 21st, 2013]
- Missouri Comets Night with Miles - 12.13.13 - Video - December 21st, 2013 [December 21st, 2013]
- 12/13/13 Comets 5 vs. Senators 2 - Video - December 21st, 2013 [December 21st, 2013]
- Comets rock Bulldogs for first win - December 22nd, 2013 [December 22nd, 2013]
- Comets Deposit Life's Building Blocks Across the Cosmos!(Dr.Ruehl) - Video - December 22nd, 2013 [December 22nd, 2013]
- Comets beat AHL rival Abbotsford again with shutout - December 23rd, 2013 [December 23rd, 2013]
- Comets Win Streak Grows to Four Games - December 23rd, 2013 [December 23rd, 2013]
- Comets Corner: On the Mask - December 23rd, 2013 [December 23rd, 2013]
- 'Comets of the Centuries': 500 Years of the Greatest Comets Ever Seen - December 23rd, 2013 [December 23rd, 2013]
- Hackensack High School (NJ) Football Home - MaxPreps.com - December 23rd, 2013 [December 23rd, 2013]
- Little Comets - Isles (Music Video) - Video - December 23rd, 2013 [December 23rd, 2013]
- Comets Have Two Players on MISL Team of Week - December 25th, 2013 [December 25th, 2013]
- ONE FOR THE RECORD DECEMBER 20 2013 21 FUKUSHIMA COMETS EARTHQUAKES NMR GZ PAUL AND BP - Video - December 25th, 2013 [December 25th, 2013]
- Comets in the Community: Christmas at St. Luke's - December 26th, 2013 [December 26th, 2013]
- Best comets of last 500 years - December 26th, 2013 [December 26th, 2013]
- STRANGE EVENTS In 2013 Earthquakes, Mass Animal Deaths, Extreme Weather, OORT Cloud Comets - Video - December 26th, 2013 [December 26th, 2013]
- Utica Comets " 'Twas the Night" - Video - December 26th, 2013 [December 26th, 2013]
- Missouri Comets vs. Rochester Lancers - Video - December 26th, 2013 [December 26th, 2013]
- Chasing Comets: In search of secrets about our origins - Video - December 26th, 2013 [December 26th, 2013]
- DREAM X2 COMETS/STARS FLYING OVERHEAD, MASSIVE SONIC BOOMS EARTH HIT POSSIBLY. - Video - December 26th, 2013 [December 26th, 2013]
- What are comets? - Video - December 26th, 2013 [December 26th, 2013]
- Game Preview: Syracuse Silver Knights at Missouri Comets and St. Louis Ambush - December 27th, 2013 [December 27th, 2013]
- Clark's performance boosts Clayton over Moss Point - December 27th, 2013 [December 27th, 2013]
- Gameday: Comets vs. Binghamton - December 27th, 2013 [December 27th, 2013]
- Comets Battle for First Place - December 27th, 2013 [December 27th, 2013]
- Gameday: Comets vs. Hamilton - December 28th, 2013 [December 28th, 2013]
- Comets fall to Senators - December 28th, 2013 [December 28th, 2013]
- Comets end winning streak - December 28th, 2013 [December 28th, 2013]
- Comets vs Syracuse Silver Knights - Video - December 28th, 2013 [December 28th, 2013]
- Winning Comets Soccer - Video - December 28th, 2013 [December 28th, 2013]
- Comets Lose in Final Minutes - December 29th, 2013 [December 29th, 2013]
- CometsTV: 12-27-13 Utica Comets vs. Binghamton Senators Highlights - Video - December 29th, 2013 [December 29th, 2013]
- Comets knock off Aquin for second time this season - December 31st, 2013 [December 31st, 2013]
- Comets fall after late rally - December 31st, 2013 [December 31st, 2013]
- CometsTV: 12-28-13 Utica Comets vs. Hamilton Bulldogs Highlights - Video - December 31st, 2013 [December 31st, 2013]
- Comets Corner: Kellan Lain - January 1st, 2014 [January 1st, 2014]
- Comets Welcome New Year - January 1st, 2014 [January 1st, 2014]
- Comets Media Game 2013 - Video - January 1st, 2014 [January 1st, 2014]
- 1957 AMI H200 playing Bill Haley and his Comets Rock Around The Clock. - Video - January 1st, 2014 [January 1st, 2014]
- 7 Amazing Christmas Kinder Surprise Eggs SMURFS cars, comets Unwrapping Review Chocolate Easter Toys - Video - January 1st, 2014 [January 1st, 2014]
- Shootout - Dogs @ Comets - 12/2813 - END - Video - January 1st, 2014 [January 1st, 2014]
- Shootout - Dogs @ Comets - 12/2813 - Video - January 1st, 2014 [January 1st, 2014]
- Catonsville girls basketball shows promise for another strong season - January 2nd, 2014 [January 2nd, 2014]
- Gameday: Comets vs. Lake Erie - January 2nd, 2014 [January 2nd, 2014]
- Comets Kick off New Year with Exciting Win - January 2nd, 2014 [January 2nd, 2014]
- Comets Remain Hot at Home with 3-2 Decision over Lake Erie - January 2nd, 2014 [January 2nd, 2014]