Dr. Eoin Drea is senior research officer at the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies.
It remains remarkable that for such a seismic event, Brexit continues to be most noticeable by its absence in the formulation of future European Union strategy. From the Conference on the Future of Europe to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyens state of the union address, Brexit, Britain and the future of the Anglo-EU relationship struggle to elicit a single reference or positive soundbite.
This in itself is a remarkable achievement given Britains unique role in the EU landscape. A European economic giant and a 47-year veteran of (mostly positive) EU policymaking is now deemed less relevant than Brussels unspecified vision for connected Global Gateway.
It is almost as if as in many a Parisians dreams Britain never really existed at all.
Alas, as the first anniversary of Brexit approaches, its clear that the EU has learned every wrong lesson from the divorce. Riled by the deliberately provocative actions of successive British governments since 2016, the EU has been unable to separate the U.K.s bark from its bite and the danger this poses is swiftly growing.
Consider how the EUs current approach to discussing Britain is based entirely on a strategy of moving past Brexit.
This is an approach that has been strengthened by the pandemic, which has allowed the EU to subsume Brexit within a broader reimagining of a more relevant, more assertive, more global union.
Europe, in its own mind, has bigger fish to fry.
But while moving past Brexit may make the EU feel better about being jilted by one of its biggest members, it is a woefully short-sighted approach to understanding Brexits potential consequences for its own long-term development.
Another weakness in the EUs approach to understanding Brexit is that it has obsessively focused on Brexiteer misrepresentations of Europe.
This its not me, its you approach has constructed a narrative that views Brexit as a wholly disfigured British issue. Feeding into lazy tropes of British detachment, this blueprint has trapped the EU in easy tales of British exceptionalism.
No real attempt has been made to place the U.K.s engagement in Europe in the specific context of the European integration process. Brexit was never just a wholly British affair. It was also shaped by the strategic choices made in Brussels over several decades.
The final EU miscalculation when it comes to Britain may be its most damaging. Brussels is continuing to underestimate the U.Ks strategic importance and refusing to acknowledge or even contemplate the political risks of an even mildly successful Britain.
The EUs focus on the grinding technical details of protecting the single market due to Britains annoying but highly effective diversionary focus on Northern Ireland has resulted in Brussels misjudging the medium-term risks of Britain as a strategic competitor.
But that risk is real.
The coming years will bring a stabilization of Britains internal politics and a refocusing of the countrys economic priorities in areas where it has existing strengths. Finance, education, security and defense, Fintech and AI are just some of those areas that could lead to a stable, and relatively dynamic, economic framework for the country.
And for all the talk of the economic costs of Brexit and COVID-19, Britains economic outlook in terms of public debt, economic growth and unemployment remain considerably better than most other major European economies, with the exception of Germany.
Britain isnt Italy, no matter how much the EU might wish it so.
Britains return to growth will be complemented by London doubling down on its strategic partnerships with the United States and the other English-speaking economies of the Anglosphere.
Although completely derided in the EU, Britains relationship with the U.S. remains the underpinning of its post-EU identity. This is a relationship whose strategic importance has been masked by Brusselss perceptions of British weakness.
For Westminster, it is irrelevant whether Britain is viewed as Washingtons most important partner Londons preferred choice or as a vassal of the U.S., in the words of Clment Beaune, Frances minister of state for European affairs.
Even subjugation brings the benefits of proximity, relevance and inclusion in Washingtons wider geopolitical strategies. These are benefits lacking in other EU member countries relationships with the Anglosphere, as evidenced by the recent controversy over Australian submarines and the AUKUS defense pact.
Its clear that the EU needs to adopt a new strategy toward Britain. All the hard talk in Schuman coffee shops in Brussels of punishing or going hard on Britain if the Northern Ireland Protocols Article 16 is invoked is ridiculous. Europe missed its chance to impose its economic power on Westminster during the Brexit negotiations.
What recent British actions have really shown is that beyond the political theatrics, Prime Minister Boris Johnsons plan is simply to keep the Brexit fires burning at home through a constant feed of mutual Anglo-EU antagonism. An EU overreaction to British goading is the ultimate aim.
So, rather than succumbing to every little British provocation, Europe needs to take the long view and claim the high ground. Brussels should shrug off British threats with a smile, talk the language of strategic partnership through gritted teeth and understand that Brexit doesnt start and end with the Irish border and angry French fishermen.
Theres a much bigger game at play.
Because Britain wont always be a political disaster. Soon it will be a serious economic threat.
Go here to read the rest:
Europe has learned nothing from Brexit - POLITICO.eu
- Government should stop grandstanding over Brexit | London Business News - London Loves Business - May 2nd, 2020 [May 2nd, 2020]
- Brexit: EU Trade Talks Could Collapse in June over Fishing, Regulations - Breitbart - May 2nd, 2020 [May 2nd, 2020]
- How Kronborg Castle helped to inspire Shakespeare | Latest Brexit news and top stories - The New European - May 2nd, 2020 [May 2nd, 2020]
- Extending the Brexit transition period - Third Force News - May 2nd, 2020 [May 2nd, 2020]
- Theres something common in reactions to Ranbir Kapoors jeans, Brexit and Khan Market gang - ThePrint - May 2nd, 2020 [May 2nd, 2020]
- Boris Johnson's perversity on the Brexit cliff edge reminds me of the Free State's rejection of all things British - Slugger O'Toole - May 2nd, 2020 [May 2nd, 2020]
- Who is on the BBC's Question Time tonight? | Latest Brexit news and top stories - The New European - May 2nd, 2020 [May 2nd, 2020]
- Priti Patel allies to 'demand apology' over bullying allegations | Latest Brexit news and top stories - The New European - May 2nd, 2020 [May 2nd, 2020]
- Post-Brexit carte system 'will be easy', France says - The Connexion - May 2nd, 2020 [May 2nd, 2020]
- Brexit does not belong to one party, and Labour must play its part - LabourList - May 2nd, 2020 [May 2nd, 2020]
- EU free trade deal with Mexico (started at same time as Brexit) is AGREED - Express.co.uk - May 2nd, 2020 [May 2nd, 2020]
- Boris Johnson must extend Brexit talks for another YEAR, major Tory Party donor demands - Express - May 2nd, 2020 [May 2nd, 2020]
- DAVID EDGERTON: Where Brexit and Covid-19 collide | Latest Brexit news and top stories - The New European - May 2nd, 2020 [May 2nd, 2020]
- SNP warn of 'chilling prospect' of no-deal Brexit as UK Gov won't extend talks - The Scotsman - May 2nd, 2020 [May 2nd, 2020]
- Campaigners file case that argues EU citizenship is permanent regardless of Brexit | Latest Brexit news and top stories - The New European - May 2nd, 2020 [May 2nd, 2020]
- Boris gives green light for Brexit Britain to start formal US trade talks NEXT WEEK - Express - May 2nd, 2020 [May 2nd, 2020]
- UK seeks access to EU health cooperation in light of coronavirus - The Guardian - May 2nd, 2020 [May 2nd, 2020]
- UK will need to extend Brexit transition, Merkel ally warns Britain - The Guardian - May 2nd, 2020 [May 2nd, 2020]
- Tory MP David Davis urges government capitalise on coronavirus outbreak to seal a Brexit deal | Latest Brexit news and top stories - The New European - May 2nd, 2020 [May 2nd, 2020]
- Brexit trade deal WILL be struck this year say UK negotiators - but only after EU tantrum - Express - May 2nd, 2020 [May 2nd, 2020]
- British lawyer sues EU over her removal from its court due to Brexit - The Guardian - May 2nd, 2020 [May 2nd, 2020]
- Coronavirus: We are all paying the price for the Tory government's preoccupation with Brexit | Latest Brexit news and top stories - The New European - May 2nd, 2020 [May 2nd, 2020]
- Row over EU office in Belfast threatens to derail Brexit talks - The Guardian - May 2nd, 2020 [May 2nd, 2020]
- WATCH: Gina Miller meets online troll who sent hateful, racist and threatening messages over Brexit - The New European - May 15th, 2020 [May 15th, 2020]
- It's 10 years since the Lib Dem-Tory austerity coalition birthed Brexit and our brutal tribalism - Nation.Cymru - May 15th, 2020 [May 15th, 2020]
- It's crazy for UK to go ahead with Brexit given pandemic crisis - Yorkshire Post - May 15th, 2020 [May 15th, 2020]
- Paul Routledge: Tories want us to forget Brexit and crash out - Mirror Online - May 15th, 2020 [May 15th, 2020]
- Theresa May humiliation: Ex-PM's grovelling plea to union bosses amid Brexit vote exposed - Express - May 15th, 2020 [May 15th, 2020]
- Brexit: don't extend the transition period - TheArticle - May 15th, 2020 [May 15th, 2020]
- Brexit Blog: Crucial Times Ahead - Will the Gap Narrow Between the Sides as Negotiations Continue - Government, Public Sector - Ireland - Mondaq News... - May 15th, 2020 [May 15th, 2020]
- Northern Ireland facing 'challenge of a generation' as it confronts Brexit and Covid-19, says accountants society's new boss - Belfast Telegraph - June 9th, 2020 [June 9th, 2020]
- Nissan chief says firm is monitoring Brexit negotiations and warns on tariffs - Chronicle Live - June 9th, 2020 [June 9th, 2020]
- Ireland as a seat for International Arbitration Bost-Brexit - Lexology - June 9th, 2020 [June 9th, 2020]
- Boris Johnson told to 'stop playing political games' with millions of citizens - The Parliament Magazine - June 9th, 2020 [June 9th, 2020]
- Brexit Party took almost 2 million in donations in first quarter of 2020 - The New European - June 9th, 2020 [June 9th, 2020]
- The Brexit Crisis Led to Totally Incompetent Leadership at a Time of Unprecedented Calamity. Now We are Paying for It - CounterPunch - June 9th, 2020 [June 9th, 2020]
- North-east skipper Jimmy Buchan warns no-deal Brexit 'will hurt' Scottish fishing industry - Press and Journal - June 9th, 2020 [June 9th, 2020]
- Boris Johnson wants to 'fix' Brexit deal he once claimed was 'oven-ready' - The New European - June 9th, 2020 [June 9th, 2020]
- Claim that extending the Brexit transition period could cost 380 billion is not credible - Full Fact - June 9th, 2020 [June 9th, 2020]
- Brexit: NI Assembly votes to extend transition period - BBC News - June 9th, 2020 [June 9th, 2020]
- Brexit shock: How tensions between USA and China may affect UK's trade options - Express - June 9th, 2020 [June 9th, 2020]
- The car industry now: will Brexit's impact now be even greater? - Autocar - June 9th, 2020 [June 9th, 2020]
- EU crisis: Brexit risks bloc's 'economic threat' crumbling - 'We should leave too!' - Express.co.uk - June 9th, 2020 [June 9th, 2020]
- Brexiteer called out for claiming Brexit Party was 'most diverse' in European Parliament - The New European - June 9th, 2020 [June 9th, 2020]
- Nissan comes out of lockdown and braces for Brexit - The Guardian - June 9th, 2020 [June 9th, 2020]
- The pandemic is being used as cover for a no-deal Brexit - The Guardian - June 9th, 2020 [June 9th, 2020]
- Brexit Britain has a much better alternative than the EU: Canzuk - Telegraph.co.uk - June 9th, 2020 [June 9th, 2020]
- Brexit deal now unlikely without extension, and time is running out - Verdict - June 9th, 2020 [June 9th, 2020]
- Britain wants to reinvent UK-China relations in the Brexit age - Quartz - June 9th, 2020 [June 9th, 2020]
- Brexit has reopened a divide within the Tories that cannot be bridged - Telegraph.co.uk - June 9th, 2020 [June 9th, 2020]
- TCW's Brexit Watch: Will Johnson cave in a second time? - The Conservative Woman - June 21st, 2020 [June 21st, 2020]
- Britain, EU need Brexit agreement in the autumn - Merkel - Reuters UK - June 21st, 2020 [June 21st, 2020]
- Westminster's actions mean devolved governments have had 'no meaningful input' in Brexit trade talks - Press and Journal - June 21st, 2020 [June 21st, 2020]
- Brexit Britain is forced to confront its inglorious past - The Star Online - June 21st, 2020 [June 21st, 2020]
- EU 'terrified' of successful UK 'on its doorstep' says Widdecombe in brutal Brexit warning - Express.co.uk - June 21st, 2020 [June 21st, 2020]
- Letter: Brexit extension would be a leap in the dark - East London and West Essex Guardian Series - June 21st, 2020 [June 21st, 2020]
- Macron to discuss Brexit with Johnson on London visit - RTE.ie - June 21st, 2020 [June 21st, 2020]
- EU FURY: Macron unleashes new Brexit threat in bid to force through 750billion bailout - Express.co.uk - June 21st, 2020 [June 21st, 2020]
- Brexit news: What would ending the transition period with no deal really mean? - Express.co.uk - June 21st, 2020 [June 21st, 2020]
- Covid-19 and Brexit: Contrasting sectoral impacts on the UK | VOX, CEPR Policy Portal - voxeu.org - June 21st, 2020 [June 21st, 2020]
- Brexit and coronavirus are stoking the fires of Welsh nationalism - The New European - June 21st, 2020 [June 21st, 2020]
- After Brexit: Will the U.S.-UK Deal Get Tariffs Down to Zero? - Yahoo News - June 21st, 2020 [June 21st, 2020]
- Brexit victory: Macron WILL cave to UK fishing stance by autumn - but there is a catch - Express - June 21st, 2020 [June 21st, 2020]
- Its official: U.K. wont require an extension of Brexit talks, even as negotiations with EU hit gridlock - MarketWatch - June 21st, 2020 [June 21st, 2020]
- With Brexit Trade Talks at an Impasse, Boris Johnson Finally Engages - The New York Times - June 21st, 2020 [June 21st, 2020]
- Johnson & Brexit Patronising Etonian Alienates the World Byline Times - Byline Times - June 22nd, 2020 [June 22nd, 2020]
- Unions Warn Trump and Brexit May Smash the Scottish Whisky Industry - Gizmodo UK - June 22nd, 2020 [June 22nd, 2020]
- Brexit risk to waste and resources increasing, says Greener UK - Resource Magazine - June 22nd, 2020 [June 22nd, 2020]
- Covid and Brexit the challenges that face new FCA boss Nikhil Rathi - Belfast Telegraph - June 22nd, 2020 [June 22nd, 2020]
- Northern Irish firms to be reimbursed for tariffs if Brexit talks fail - Tina Massey - June 22nd, 2020 [June 22nd, 2020]
- Unpopular fund sector trumps UK funds four years on from Brexit vote - Money Observer - June 22nd, 2020 [June 22nd, 2020]
- Post-Brexit and what it means for your intellectual property rights - Intellectual Property - UK - Mondaq News Alerts - June 22nd, 2020 [June 22nd, 2020]
- Brexit revives unionist and nationalist divide in Northern Ireland - The Guardian - June 22nd, 2020 [June 22nd, 2020]
- Boris to take on EU's Galileo with BETTER system US could join 'we have an opportunity' - Express - June 22nd, 2020 [June 22nd, 2020]
- France does not rule out a post Brexit no deal with UK, but those who need it most are the British - MercoPress - June 22nd, 2020 [June 22nd, 2020]
- Boris Johnson news live: PM given fresh no-deal Brexit warnings, as No 10 puts full confidence in under-pressure minister - The Independent - June 22nd, 2020 [June 22nd, 2020]
- Brexit victory: Richard Tice reveals the 'huge opportunity' ahead for fishing and farming - Express - June 22nd, 2020 [June 22nd, 2020]
- Brexit: Why hopes are rising that EU and UK could find compromise - Financial Times - June 22nd, 2020 [June 22nd, 2020]
- A new CEO, Brexit and supply-side exposure may leave Wipros Q1 earnings more dented than others - Business Insider India - July 13th, 2020 [July 13th, 2020]
- UK Government 'planning to withhold power from Scotland after Brexit transition' - HeraldScotland - July 13th, 2020 [July 13th, 2020]