Black voters have driven the trajectory of recent Democratic presidential nominating contests more than any other voting bloc. This was the case in 2008 and 2016 primaries, where they largely united behind a single candidate Barack Obama and then Hillary Clinton. This year is no different. But the question is whether Democrats will earn enough of their support to win the White House.
Though Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton had strong showings among black voters in the primaries, their performances among black voters in the general elections diverged. Those voters are fundamentally different: Black general election voters are generally younger, less likely to attend church services weekly and less likely to identify as Democrats than their friends and family members who vote in every election. They are also more progressive than black primary voters.
To retake the White House, we white Democratic consultants should become intellectually curious about black voters. That starts with understanding the differences between and within these two groups and pinpointing what motivates them and what suppresses infrequent or nonvoters. Stacey Abramss campaign for governor of Georgia, which I led, took such an approach. The lessons we learned reveal insights that Democrats should apply to winning in November.
Something nearly unthinkable happened in Georgia in 2018. More black voters, more Asian-American/Pacific Island voters and more Latino voters turned out than in the 2016 presidential election. Sure, turnout was up everywhere and at presidential levels in many states. But Georgia was the only state where midterm turnout was greater than presidential turnout in each group of voters of color. Any political scientist will tell you this is not something that happens. Ever.
Here is what I suggest campaigns do if they want to scale this up across the country:
Understand the severe limitations of conventional campaigning categories of persuasion targets (white, suburban, female) versus turnout targets (African-American), shorthand that ultimately shortchanges voters. If we had run a typical campaign, a large majority of resources would have been spent on the relatively small number of persuadable white suburbanites, those likely to vote but not clearly affiliated with either party. But actual election results proved them to be largely Republican voters year after year. Instead, our core strategic imperative was persuading and mobilizing an enormous pool of new, infrequent or nonvoters of color and white liberals whom we saw as both turnout and persuasion targets.
Invest in quantitative and qualitative research about what messages and strategies motivate and dissuade unlikely black voters. And Democratic operatives must cease thinking of black voters as a monolithic voting bloc. We need to spend real money exploring the top issues, desires and needs of black voters and dive into all the cross-tabs with the same level of curiosity and focus as campaigns do with white voters rural, suburban, urban; college, noncollege; men, women; young, old, middle-aged; regular voter, nonvoter, etc. We also need to explore whether voting against Donald Trump is enough of a motivation to vote . (Hint: Its not.)
Explore what people know about the different ways to vote (by mail? early in person? on Election Day?) even more important in this pandemic so that we can tailor our voter education campaigns to address voters questions.
Embrace identity politics as an electoral necessity and moral imperative. Identity politics within a campaign means acknowledging that issues and policies affect communities differently, and different communities have different needs. This truth should be reflected in campaign policy plans, but more important, candidates have to talk about these differences directly.
Build diverse teams at every level. This is a core strategic imperative for winning. Any winning coalition across age, race, ethnicity, sexual orientation, gender identity, economic status, region, education level, family status, ability and so on requires a team that can connect with and understand the extraordinary diversity of our electorate. In a state as big and diverse as Georgia, where people of color are on the cusp of making up a majority of the population, there is no single way to be culturally competent. This is true in many battleground states, and especially across the South.
Reject the cynical notion that mobilizing voters of color will lose white voters. This was a big fear we heard all the time with Staceys candidacy. Could a black candidate center a campaign on increasing participation by all voters of color as the main ingredient to victory, and also earn the support of white voters? Or would she scare all the white people away? Ultimately, Stacey won a larger share of the white vote than any Democrat in a generation. So I say yes, you can do all of these things. In fact, we must; its a requirement to building the broad and deep multiracial, multiethnic coalition that Democrats need to win.
Lets take two issues we talked often about in our campaign: criminal justice reform and guns. Throughout the campaign, Stacey discussed both issues with all audiences, very much against convention. On criminal justice, sure, in the cross-tabs of our research, black men had ranked the issue higher than Latinos and women of all races. But white voters would talk to Stacey about criminal justice reform at events, and later it showed up unexpectedly in research about them.
For example, in a focus group late in the campaign, two persuadable white women brought up, in a group of their peers and unprompted by the moderator, the need for criminal justice reform. One woman said she didnt want her son in college getting jailed for minor marijuana possession, adding that there are too many people in jail and it was a waste of resources.
Gun safety is an issue we were cautioned to avoid. Stacey spoke about the issue from the start, both about her personal experiences with guns (her grandmother taught her how to hunt) and her belief that we need policies to reduce gun violence. And she did this everywhere, including in Augusta at a labor unions gun raffle where the audience was mostly white men. (This is true. I was there.) When she talked about these topics, she was authentic and direct, which allowed her to connect with all types of people, even when they didnt agree with everything she said.
A great candidate with an authentic message and a plan isnt enough to move the needle on turnout in communities Democrats have long neglected. Thats why we spent millions of dollars on layered voter education directed at registered voters of color, even if they didnt have a history of voting or were fairly regular voters. We took no one for granted and made few assumptions about the nonvoters. After all, they were there on the voter file and had bothered to register. But no one had ever tried to talk to them. We put millions of dollars toward a volunteer organizing program and a large-scale paid canvass from the big cities to the small African-American-majority towns on the Florida border. To provide information on how to cast a ballot early, by mail or in person, we went big on digital ads, on TV from the popular evening news stations to BET; in small local print outlets; on radio and more.
Despite a scourge of voter suppression, Stacey came within 55,000 votes of victory in 2018, and much has changed in Georgia since. Metro Atlanta continues to grow, and people moving to the state are largely Democratic. More than 600,000 Georgians have registered to vote since 2018; half of them are voters of color, and 40 percent of them are under age 30. Nearly 300,000 new voters of color are projected to register by the general election deadline. With presidential-level investment, Georgia is positioned to be a true battleground state; up for grabs are 16 electoral votes, two Senate seats, two hotly contested congressional races, a state house majority and more.
My case for mobilizing black voters is not limited to Georgia nor to the South. While some pundits have presented the 2020 presidential election as a binary choice between Blue Wall states and more diverse Sun Belt battlegrounds, I reject that choice. The path to victory in both sets of states rests on turning out voters of color and black voters specifically. Black voters will be the margin of victory in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and they are a large reservoir of electoral opportunity in Florida, Georgia and North Carolina. Latinos and Asian-American voters are driving electoral wins in states like Arizona and Texas.
The Trump campaign and the Republican National Committee understand the importance of black voters. Thats why theyre conducting a national voter suppression operation. While we cant stop everything, we have to mitigate harm like we saw in Wisconsin with a mobilization and voter-protection strategy. But we also saw in Wisconsin how horrifying, intentional and gruesomely strategic Republican voter suppression does not always result in Republican wins.
We are facing an extraordinary election. Its going to take more outreach, more voter education and more conversations about tough issues. This is the year to invest in black voters as never before. And if we do so, we will win.
Lauren Groh-Wargo (@gwlauren), the former campaign manager for Stacey Abramss campaign for governor of Georgia, is the senior adviser to Fair Fight.
The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. Wed like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And heres our email: letters@nytimes.com.
Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram.
Read more:
Stacey Abrams Knows the Secret to Winning the White House - The New York Times
- Twin Oaks Intentional Community - Twin Oaks Intentional ... - December 8th, 2016 [December 8th, 2016]
- The Camphill Assocation of North America Communities - December 9th, 2016 [December 9th, 2016]
- Cohousing - Wikipedia - December 11th, 2016 [December 11th, 2016]
- Communes: the pros & cons of intentional community ... - December 21st, 2016 [December 21st, 2016]
- Jewish Intentional Communities Conference - Hazon - December 25th, 2016 [December 25th, 2016]
- Common Fire Beacon-Newburgh | Creating diverse ... - January 2nd, 2017 [January 2nd, 2017]
- Intentional Housing Communities | www.hampshire.edu - February 5th, 2017 [February 5th, 2017]
- A First Gen Lawyer-Turned-Entrepreneur Pioneers New Standards for College Freshmen - Huffington Post - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Disparities in minority unemployment targeted by Iowa officials - DesMoinesRegister.com - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- ACE program benefits low-income communities - Observer Online - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Want a happy old age? Get your friends to be your neighbours - Independent Online - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Coalition Calls Itself The 'Eyes, Ears & Voice' Of Pittsburgh's Black Community - 90.5 WESA - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- 'A community remembers' coming to Hesston - Butler County Times Gazette - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Krista Tippett February 01, 2017 - America Magazine - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Serving the most diverse urban area on the planet - New York Nonprofit Media - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- To truly serve the public, community stations must apply standards for what's said on-air - Current - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- Here's what went down at the NYC launch of Ashley Biden's charitable clothing line - Technical.ly - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Appalachian's Alternative Service Experience among nation's top 10 higher education institutions for number of programs - Appalachian State University - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Pastor: We must build bridges between police and local black communities - Fort Worth Star Telegram (blog) - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Chris Wood: Now more than ever localize! - vtdigger.org - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- A Business Plan for Healthy Communities - Hospitals & Health Networks - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- The Death of the Ski Bum and Intentional Tourism - The Catalyst - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- Heroin hits home: Highways provide "easy access" for drug trafficking in Franklin County - Herald-Mail Media - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- How Anarchists and Intentional Communities Are Reacting to ... - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- Ohio Continues with Next Phase of InsideOut Initiative to Combat Win-at-All Costs Sports Mentality - Norwalk Reflector - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Microsoft Executives to Keynote Summit EMEA 2017 Conference - Yahoo Finance - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Marnita's Table set for Wednesday - Daily Globe - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- David Littlewood, guest columnist: Time to repeal Dodd-Frank Act and free up our community banks - Waco Tribune-Herald - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- Ithaca organization encourages people to participate in National Random Acts of Kindness Week - The Ithaca Voice - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- Portland groups form coalition to eradicate hate - KOIN.com - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- Nash says 'there's more to do' on diversity at State of the County address - Gwinnettdailypost.com - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Anson County community meeting to fight poverty planned for Feb. 18 - Ansonrecord - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Spreading the Faith: Moving Coins and Moving Communities - Patheos (blog) - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- If It Walks Like a Duck - ChicagoNow (blog) - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Immigrant Round-ups Stir Fears - Consortium News - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Pace: What Should I Give Up This Year? - Covington News - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- J Mase III of #BlackTransMagick seeks to redistribute resources - Daily Illini - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- South Side getting trauma center, but it'll be far more than just an emergency room - Fox 32 Chicago - February 21st, 2017 [February 21st, 2017]
- St. Louis Park cohousing community welcomes home all ages - Minneapolis Star Tribune - February 22nd, 2017 [February 22nd, 2017]
- The Benedict Option and Rod Dreher's LGBT Challenge - The Atlantic - The Atlantic - February 23rd, 2017 [February 23rd, 2017]
- Mark Sundeen looks for a better way to live - Missoula Independent - February 23rd, 2017 [February 23rd, 2017]
- Cohousing communities gain popularity, including here in Nashville - WKRN.com - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]
- The Christian Retreat From Public Life - The Atlantic - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]
- New senior living community eyeing Waxahachie - Waxahachie Daily Light - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]
- Better health needs a diverse workforce - Greenville Daily Reflector - February 25th, 2017 [February 25th, 2017]
- Businesses: State needs more immigrants - Mankato Free Press - February 25th, 2017 [February 25th, 2017]
- Cohousing communities gain popularity - WDTN - February 25th, 2017 [February 25th, 2017]
- Letters: Dismiss Schimel, others for maps - The Sheboygan Press - February 28th, 2017 [February 28th, 2017]
- Drums, Voices, and Circles - Memphis Democrat - March 1st, 2017 [March 1st, 2017]
- Food: Four Short Talks brings community to the table - Dailyuw - March 2nd, 2017 [March 2nd, 2017]
- Family School rebuts report on lack of diversity - Coastal View News - March 2nd, 2017 [March 2nd, 2017]
- The Wall Street Journal explores trends in Christian community life sort of - GetReligion (blog) - March 2nd, 2017 [March 2nd, 2017]
- Renting land to highest bidder stumbling block for young people looking to start in agriculture - INFORUM - March 3rd, 2017 [March 3rd, 2017]
- Transportation/Traveling While Living Off Grid - Mother Earth News - March 4th, 2017 [March 4th, 2017]
- New School Board President Believes Schools Belong to Communities - The Exponent Telegram (press release) (registration) - March 6th, 2017 [March 6th, 2017]
- Worcester's retiree health costs 'unsustainable' - telegram.com - Worcester Telegram - March 7th, 2017 [March 7th, 2017]
- 12 on Tuesday: Leslie Orrantia - WISC - Channel 3000 - Channel3000.com - WISC-TV3 - March 8th, 2017 [March 8th, 2017]
- By walking the beat, Kalamazoo officers nurture genuine ... - Michigan Radio - March 8th, 2017 [March 8th, 2017]
- Sometimes the Grass Really is Greener - Memphis Democrat - March 8th, 2017 [March 8th, 2017]
- Is Clallam opening the door to tiny houses? | Sequim Gazette - Sequim Gazette - March 8th, 2017 [March 8th, 2017]
- New St. Paul police program aims to mentor recruits - Minneapolis Star Tribune - March 9th, 2017 [March 9th, 2017]
- A New Kind of Homeless Village is Coming to Kenton. It's a Big Deal. - The Portland Mercury (blog) - March 10th, 2017 [March 10th, 2017]
- Why We Need the Benedict Option and How It Doesn't Have to ... - Patheos (blog) - March 10th, 2017 [March 10th, 2017]
- National Expert Shares Thoughts on Environmental Justice - WUWM - March 11th, 2017 [March 11th, 2017]
- The Promise of Paradise features area - 100 Mile House Free Press - March 12th, 2017 [March 12th, 2017]
- Speak out about your experiences - Hibbing Daily Tribune - March 12th, 2017 [March 12th, 2017]
- Trust comes in several varieties - Muncie Star Press - April 8th, 2017 [April 8th, 2017]
- Intentional neighborhoods take root across country - LancasterOnline - April 8th, 2017 [April 8th, 2017]
- my family did the benedict option before it was cool and here's why it doesn't work - Patheos (blog) - April 8th, 2017 [April 8th, 2017]
- Saint Benedict's Mandate - Patheos (blog) - April 8th, 2017 [April 8th, 2017]
- Cohousing Part I: Creating community and reducing social isolation - Michigan State University Extension - April 8th, 2017 [April 8th, 2017]
- Searching for a greater interfaith understanding - Seattle Globalist - June 6th, 2017 [June 6th, 2017]
- The fight for affordable housing in Jefferson Park continues - Chicago Tribune - June 6th, 2017 [June 6th, 2017]
- A 'Justin Option'? Justin Martyr and the Ben-Op - National Catholic Register (blog) - June 6th, 2017 [June 6th, 2017]
- The Groves of Academe: On Keep the Damned Women Out - lareviewofbooks - June 6th, 2017 [June 6th, 2017]
- Curating Community through Intentional Placemaking - Urban Land - June 6th, 2017 [June 6th, 2017]
- Local ties: New tailgate market locations highlight business and community connections - Mountain Xpress - June 7th, 2017 [June 7th, 2017]
- How Power Street Theatre Company is taking on representation in the arts - Generocity - June 7th, 2017 [June 7th, 2017]
- Open house will celebrate Folk Art Guild's 50 years - News - The ... - Penn Yan Chronicle-Express (blog) - June 7th, 2017 [June 7th, 2017]
- Archbishop: In 'post-Christian world' fidelity, charity, truth stand out - CatholicPhilly.com - June 7th, 2017 [June 7th, 2017]