Such restrictions, in vogue with governments, are ineffective most of the time

Mar 16th 2020

AT 8AM ON March 16th Germany partially closed its borders with Austria, Denmark, France, Luxembourg and Switzerland in an effort to slow the spread of the new coronavirus. Although goods and cross-border commuters can still enter and leave the country, other travellers are being turned away. The measures are an abrupt reversal by Germanys chancellor, Angela Merkel, who had only days ago vowed to avoid such action. Later that day Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, proposed a 30-day halt to non-essential travel from across the external borders of the EU (and of members of the Schengen free-travel zone).

Similar measures are being taken all over the world. In the past week, after declaring the coronavirus outbreak a national emergency, President Donald Trump banned most arrivals into America from 28 European countries. Similar restrictions had already been imposed on arrivals from China and Iran. Saudi Arabia has placed restrictions on travellers from over 30 countries. Kenya has gone even further, banning travel from any country with confirmed cases of covid-19 (by March 16th there were more than 150 such countries). More than 80 states now have some form of travel ban or flight suspension in place, according to Mayer Brown, a law firm (see map).

Such restrictions, which will do little to contain the disease in places where it already exists, are designed to give governments and health-care providers time to prepare for the surge in cases that many countries are expecting. But they may do more harm than good. The World Health Organisation calls travel restrictions ineffective in most situations. Even if they reduce the rate of infection temporarily, the WHO says they may also prevent aid from being delivered, disrupt businesses and cause wider social and economic damage. Already the pain is being felt keenly by airlines. International Air Transport Association (IATA), a trade group, has projected that the hit to demand could cost the equivalent of one-fifth of last years overall flight revenues, or $113bn. The actual figure could be worse still.

A paper published this month in the journal Science models the spread of the disease. It finds that Chinas ban of travel in and out of Wuhan, where the disease is thought to have originated, only modestly delayed its spread to the rest of the country. Even strong international travel restrictions would do little to stem the disease unless transmissions within countries are controlled. Instead, according to the WHO, governments would do better to educate their populations about the risks of covid-19, test, test, test every suspected case and treat those who are ill.

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More than 80 countries have imposed travel bans to curb the new coronavirus - The Economist