By Michael B. Baker

China could overtake the United States as the world's largest business travel market as early as 2015, according to a report published Monday by the Global Business Travel Association.

Spending on business travel originating in China grew by 15.1 percent year over year in 2013 to $225 billion, the report indicated. It projected business travel spending to increase by 16.5 percent this year and by an additional 17.8 percent, to $309 billion, in 2015.

Already the second-largest business travel market in the world, China has been closing the spending gap separating it and the United States. That difference dropped from $66 billion in 2012 to $47 billion in 2013, and projections from both markets show China could overtake the United States by 2015, according to GBTA's report.

Researchers wrote that "slower and more consistent economic growth may extend the amount of time required to wrest this laurel from the United States, but current economic performance and near-term prospects suggest that China remains on track. Monthly industrial production, retail sales, management sentiment and exports are all signaling better times ahead for both domestic and international outbound business travel."

The GBTA report noted that public spending restrictions in China have impacted meetings and events demand. For example, the number of events with more than 1,000 participants dropped by 75 percent between 2010 and 2012. But GBTA's research found that private sector events and growing transient domestic travel have offset that.

Meanwhile, growth in outbound international business travel from China has been "relatively tepid," according to the report. Such spending during the past three years has grown between 10 percent and 15 percent, compared with growth rates of about 30 percent in 2009 and 2010. GBTA projected growth will remain at about 15 percent this year and suggested improving economic conditions in Europe could help boost that rate in 2015.

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GBTA: China On Track To Be World's Business Travel Spending Leader By 2015