A woman with a facial mask passes the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on February 3, 2020 at Wall Street in New York City.
Johannes Eisele | AFP | Getty Images
The new coronavirus outbreak will be worse for the global economy than the 2003 SARS epidemic was, data analysis firm IHS Markit predicts.
While both outbreaks originated in China, nearly two decades separate the SARS outbreak from the new coronavirus outbreak. In that time, China has grown from the world's sixth-largest economy to the second biggest today behind the U.S. The country has been a main growth driver worldwide, with the International Monetary Fund estimating that China alone accounted for 39% of global economic expansion in 2019.
"Coronavirus will have a larger negative effect on the global economy than the SARS outbreak in 2003," IHS Markit wrote, adding that China accounted for 4.2% of the global economy in 2003. The report says China now commands 16.3% of the world's GDP. "Therefore, any slowdown in the Chinese economy sends not ripples but waves across the globe."
SARS, which stands for severe acute respiratory syndrome, first emerged in China's Guangdong province before spreading to other countries. The virus infected about 8,000 people, claimed almost 800 lives worldwide and shaved 0.5% to 1% off China's growth in 2003, according to various estimates.
Though estimates vary, economists say that the SARS outbreak in China cost the global economy about $40 billion.
Most of the economic cost of the outbreak, though, "is not related to the virus," said CEO of the World Travel and Tourism Council Gloria Guevara, who was the tourism minister for Mexico during the H1N1 outbreak. "It's related to the panic."
The long-term economic impact of the new coronavirus outbreak will be determined largely by China's containment measures, IHS Markit's report says. The Chinese government has quarantined Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak, and, by IHS Markit's count, 11 provinces have extended the Chinese New Year holiday to keep workers at home and prevent the spread of the virus.
"If the current and unprecedented confinement measures in China stay in place until the end of February, and are lifted progressively beginning in March, the resulting economic impact will be concentrated in the first half of 2020," the report says, "with a reduction of global real GDP of 0.8% in Q1 and 0.5% in Q2."
If China ends those restrictions on Feb. 10, as is currently scheduled, the impact on the global economy will be much more limited, the report says. Most factories in China would be closed around this time for observance of the Chinese New Year, which is factored into expectations. However, the report says the outbreak threatens to severely hamper several industries, especially automotive manufacturing.
"The 11 Chinese provinces which have announced an extended holiday period are normally responsible for over two thirds of vehicle production in China," the report says.
Employees with Ford Motor and Fiat Chrysler who are able to do so are working from home this week, while production at both automakers' plants is scheduled to remain closed until at least next week, the companies confirmed to CNBC this week. Tesla has temporarily closed its stores in mainland China as of Sunday, Feb. 2, according to an online post from a company sales employee on that date.
General Motors, the largest U.S. automaker in China, last week told employees there that it will keep its Chinese factories shut down through Feb. 9
The uncertainty in China could also hamper global oil prices, the report says, adding that China accounted for half of the world's oil demand growth in 2019. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and some allies have been holding talks this week to respond to the outbreak.
- Cant Travel? Play These Games Instead During COVID-19 And Social Distancing - Forbes - March 21st, 2020
- Travel personalities reflect on how the coronavirus outbreak has changed their world - The Messenger - March 21st, 2020
- Remote Year, which helps you work while traveling the world, lays off 50% of staff - TechCrunch - March 21st, 2020
- WhatsApp Is at the Center of Coronavirus Response - WIRED - March 21st, 2020
- World's most expensive cities to live in - CNN - March 21st, 2020
- UK travel industry urges government action to forestall collapse of businesses - The Guardian - March 21st, 2020
- We can't travel, but we can take measures to preserve jobs in the tourism industry - World Bank Group - March 21st, 2020
- It's Hard to Believe How Empty the World's Top Tourist Destinations Are Due to Coronavirus Until You See These Photos - Travel+Leisure - March 21st, 2020
- Global action vital to save world's tourism industry: Saudi minister - Arabnews - March 21st, 2020
- 16 Of The Cheapest Travel Destinations Around The World - World Atlas - March 21st, 2020
- Coronavirus bailout: Airlines are asking the US government for $50 billion in aid - Vox.com - March 21st, 2020
- When Are Cruise Lines Around the World Expected To Resume Service? - Cruise Critic - March 21st, 2020
- Coronavirus: April could be a month with almost zero flights as airlines axe more routes - The Independent - March 21st, 2020
- Coronavirus canceled this family's Disney trip. They made better memories at home - CNN - March 21st, 2020
- During a pandemic, what does being the world's happiest country mean? - CNN - March 21st, 2020
- Round 2: The Most Instagrammable Hotel In The World 2020 - Luxury Travel Advisor - March 21st, 2020
- Reporter's Notebook: World Travel in the Time of Coronavirus - VOA News - March 17th, 2020
- More than 80 countries have imposed travel bans to curb the new coronavirus - The Economist - March 17th, 2020
- World Travel Holdings' Brands Take Home 10 Statuettes at the 2020 Travvy Awards - Yahoo Finance - March 17th, 2020
- Offutt cancels military travel and leave, but says it has seen no confirmed cases of COVID-19 - Omaha World-Herald - March 17th, 2020
- Why the world is waking up to Vietnamese coffee - CNN - March 17th, 2020
- New Inspirational Adventure Journeys from TCS World Travel - Arts and Collections International - March 17th, 2020
- Vote Now: The Most Instagrammable Hotel In The World 2020 - Luxury Travel Advisor - March 17th, 2020
- Travel bans, market chaos: Dizzying reaction to coronavirus spread around the world - TribLIVE - March 17th, 2020
- Live Coronavirus Updates and Coverage - The New York Times - March 17th, 2020
- The Latest COVID-19 Policies From The Travel Corporation Brands - Luxury Travel Advisor - March 17th, 2020
- My dream cruise is in tatters thanks to coronavirus here's how it feels to be stranded at sea - Telegraph.co.uk - March 17th, 2020
- Virus Brings New Travel Restrictions, Lockdowns And Closures - Yeshiva World News - March 17th, 2020
- Travel Brands, Remember Who You Really Serve The Traveling Public - Skift - March 17th, 2020
- Customized travel Market will touch a new level in upcoming year with Top Key Players like TCS World Travel, DuVine Cycling & Adventure Co,... - March 17th, 2020
- Corona virus affecting the tourism industry worldwide - Travel Daily News International - March 17th, 2020
- TUI suspends vast majority of travel operations | News - Breaking Travel News - March 17th, 2020
- Coronavirus: Virgin Atlantic asks staff to take eight weeks of unpaid leave - Sky News - March 17th, 2020
- U.S. Will Drop Limits on Virus Testing, Pence Says - The New York Times - March 4th, 2020
- Buy the World Travel Plug Adapter along with 6 Attachments only For $24.99 - iLounge - March 4th, 2020
- Second Death From Virus Is Reported in the U.S. - The New York Times - March 4th, 2020
- Travel - How the humble potato changed the world - BBC News - March 4th, 2020
- The tourism legacy of the Olympic Games - CNN - March 4th, 2020
- Mexico to Host Travel and Tourism Summit Amid Coronavirus Outbreak - Latin Post - March 4th, 2020
- The world's largest island is finally drawing tourists - CNBC - March 4th, 2020
- World's leading tourism expert warns of overreaction in coronavirus battle - Famagusta Gazette - March 4th, 2020
- After My Abusive Relationship, I Couldn't Leave The House. Travel Opened My World Up Again. - HuffPost - March 4th, 2020
- Planning summer holidays? Think about coronavirus - Times of India - March 4th, 2020
- The holiday destinations around the world which have no cases of coronavirus - The Sun - March 4th, 2020
- Travel ban set to be extended as fears grow over the 'new Hubei' - The Sydney Morning Herald - March 4th, 2020
- Coronavirus: six more test positive in NSW after travelling from Asia and Iran - The Guardian - March 4th, 2020
- Hostelworld shares fall as it warns of 3.5m coronavirus blow - City A.M. - March 4th, 2020
- Coronavirus: Airports around the world empty as travel industry suffers - The Independent - March 4th, 2020
- Travel Retail Market investigated in the latest research - WhaTech Technology and Markets News - March 4th, 2020
- Then and now: How coronavirus turned the world's busiest cities into ghost towns - Telegraph.co.uk - March 4th, 2020
- 5 of the world's smartest cities - World First Travel Insurance - March 4th, 2020
- Traveling In 2020 And The Coronavirus (COVID-19) - ADVrider - March 4th, 2020
- Coronavirus Travel Advisories: Map Shows CDC's Areas Of Concern : Goats and Soda - NPR - February 29th, 2020
- Empty airports around the world show coronavirus affected air travel - Business Insider - Business Insider - February 29th, 2020
- The travel industry is suffering its worst shock since 9/11 because of coronavirus - KTVZ - February 29th, 2020
- The coronavirus has grounded Chinese tourists. The global travel industry may not recover for years - CNN - February 29th, 2020
- There are $4 flights in China but dont expect many other coronavirus airfare deals - MarketWatch - February 29th, 2020
- Coronavirus is threatening to end the world air-travel boom - CNBC - February 29th, 2020
- Coronavirus updates live: 1st death in U.S. as outbreak spreads in other countries - NBC News - February 29th, 2020
- THIRDHOME partners with Major Sports Alumni Associations to offer former players access to world travel - PRNewswire - February 29th, 2020
- Great Day TV: The Strongest Woman in the World is from Indy - WISHTV.com - February 29th, 2020
- Climate activists just blocked plans to expand Heathrow, one of the world's biggest airports - CNN - February 29th, 2020
- Less-Costly Ways to Reduce the Harm of COVID-19 Without Travel-and-Immigration-Bans - Cato Institute - February 29th, 2020
- 7 things I never travel without - CNET - February 29th, 2020
- Global Leisure Travel Market, Forecast to 2026 - Mobile Applications, Big Data Analytics, and AI Evolving Together Amidst Proliferating Tourism... - February 29th, 2020
- Industry chiefs to meet at World Aviation Festival - TTG - February 29th, 2020
- Worlds largest travel fair, ITB, cancelled in Berlin - The Thaiger - February 29th, 2020
- Travel: Has Richard Branson launched the world's coolest cruise? - HeraldScotland - February 29th, 2020
- WITTI to Honor Top Women in Travel with Travel Awards Dinner, Gives Voice to Pearson Findings on Gender Mix in the C-Suite - Yahoo Finance - February 20th, 2020
- The world through the eyes of one photographer - CNN - February 20th, 2020
- What the world's most expensive Irish whiskey tastes like - CNN - February 20th, 2020
- What in the World: President Trump's Travel Ban 2.0 - CNN - February 20th, 2020
- Travel Green: Discover Some Of The Worlds Best Eco-Friendly Hotels - Forbes - February 20th, 2020
- Miami Beach Debuts "Why I Love Miami Beach" Social Video Series to Show Why the Destination is Like No Other Place in the World - PRNewswire - February 20th, 2020
- Industrial Tourism Market Global Insights and Trends 2020 to 2026 - Nyse Nasdaq Live - February 20th, 2020
- Travel between Torres Strait Islands and PNG banned due to fears over coronavirus - The Guardian - February 20th, 2020
- What trends will be shaping the African travel sector? - Africa Outlook Magazine - February 20th, 2020
- Myanmar Tourism Gets a Second Chance: Is It Ready for It? - Skift - February 20th, 2020
- Why Sicily deserves a place on your travel wish list this year - Travel Daily News International - February 20th, 2020
- Highland Park rolls out exclusive Single Cask bottling for Heathrow and World Duty Free - DFNIonline.com - February 20th, 2020