A customer lights a joint at Lowell Farms, America's first official Cannabis Cafe offering farm-to-table dining and smoking of cannabis in West Hollywood, California, October 1, 2019.
Mike Blake | Reuters
New Jersey is expected to approve a ballot initiative to legalize adult-use (aka recreational) marijuana on Election Day next month. Aside from stoking up the 61% of likely Garden State voters in favor of the measure, its passage is projected to generate up to $400 million in adult-use sales in its first year and $950 million by 2024, translating then to nearly $63 million in annual state tax revenue and an additional $19 million in local taxes, as estimated by Marijuana Business Daily. In an economy shattered by the coronavirus pandemic, legal weed looks like a great idea.
That may not be the only good news for legalization proponents after Nov. 3. They're hoping New Jersey's pro-pot vote will trigger a domino effect in neighboring states considering similar efforts. "Once New Jersey goes, it's going to set off an arms race along the East Coast, putting New York, Connecticut and Pennsylvania on the clock," said DeVaughn Ward, senior legislative counsel for the Marijuana Policy Project, a cannabis advocacy group in Hartford.
Those three states already permit medicinal marijuana sales and have been moving toward legalizing adult-use for several years, considering tax revenue, job creation and the will of the majority of residents in favor of full legalization. The legislative stars appeared aligned following the 2018 midterm elections' blue wave, yet ultimately there weren't enough yea votes in the respective state houses last year. Then the pandemic hit in March, keeping legalization bills in lockdown until next year.
Three additional states Arizona, South Dakota and Montana have adult-use legalization initiatives on their November ballots, and Mississippians will vote on a bill allowing medicinal sales. If all five measures pass, medicinal marijuana will be legal in 38 states, as well as Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico, and adult-use in 14 of those, plus D.C.
Legalization is another leg on the long, strange trip the U.S. cannabis industry is experiencing in the Year of Covid. Marijuana sales have gone up during the pandemic, thanks to stay-at-home orders and federal stimulus money. And the prospects for continued growth are high.
Total cannabis sales in the U.S. this year are projected to reach $15.8 billion, according to Arcview Market Research/BDSA, up from $12.1 billion in 2019. In adult-use states, the numbers are eye-popping. Illinois, for instance, recently reported its fifth straight month of record-breaking marijuana sales, which hit $67 million in September. Oregon has seen adult-use sales rise 30% above forecast since the pandemic began, averaging $100 million a month over the summer.
"As a whole, the industry is doing fairly well," said Chris Walsh, CEO of Marijuana Business Daily. "Some companies have struggled, but in general we haven't seen an overwhelming number of layoffs or companies going out of business." A big boost, he added, was that most states deemed cannabis businesses as essential during the pandemic. "They were able to stay open while the economy virtually came to a grinding halt," Walsh said.
A customer holding a cannabis product gestures while leaving the Natural Vibe store after legal recreational marijuana went on sale in St John's, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada October 17, 2018.
Chris Wattie | Reuters
Even so, because marijuana remains illegal on the federal level, the industry was ineligible for funds distributed through the Small Business Administration's Paycheck Protection Program. "It's just another irony on top of irony about how the country handles cannabis in general," Walsh said. House Democrats have included the industry in previous and proposed Covid stimulus packages, but to no avail.
Depending on the outcome of next month's presidential and Congressional elections, the likelihood of full federal legalization which means removing it from its highly restrictive Schedule I drug classification under the Controlled Substances Act could be greater than ever. What's more, there's a good chance that the rampant injustices inflicted during the nation's nearly century-old cannabis prohibition, disproportionately upon people of color, may be overcome.
The Trump administration has had an enigmatic relationship with cannabis. It rescinded an Obama-era policy that prevented federal prosecutions for marijuana offenses and made immigrants ineligible for citizenship if they consume marijuana or work in the cannabis industry. Yet Trump has previously favored states' rights to legalize pot and signed the 2018 Farm Bill that legalized hemp, its non-intoxicating variety. He's running for reelection on a law-and-order platform and has never promoted federal legalization, so even if Congress turns solid blue, it's hard to predict where he might come down on the issue.
Trump's Democratic opponent, former Vice President Joe Biden, has a complicated history with cannabis, too. As a senator, he championed the 1994 crime bill that sent tens of thousands of minor drug offenders to prison. Yet while serving as Obama's vice president, the administration issued the Cole memo, which cleared the way for state-legal marijuana businesses to operate largely without federal interference. Biden and running mate Senator Kamala Harris support adult-use marijuana decriminalization, moderate rescheduling, federal medicinal legalization, allowing states to set their own laws and expunging prior cannabis convictions though not federal legalization.
Harris and Rep. Jerry Nadler were co-sponsors last year of the Marijuana Opportunity Reinvestment and Expungement (MORE) Act, which would remove cannabis from the Controlled Substances Act and eliminate criminal penalties under federal law. The MORE Act also would expedite expungements, impose a 5% tax on cannabis products to fund criminal and social reforms and prohibit the denial of any federal public benefits based on marijuana use. Congress was scheduled to vote on the bill in September, but it was delayed, probably until next year.
Alongside tax revenue and job creation, social justice reform is the strongest argument for legalization, on both the federal and state levels. Dating back to the Marihuana Tax Act of 1937, criminalization and incarceration, especially of minorities, have been foundational to drug laws. "The war on drugs has historically and continues to disproportionately target communities of color," said David Abernathy, vice president of research and consulting for Arcview Group, an Oakland-based firm that matches cannabis businesses and investors, who also is on the board of the Minority Cannabis Business Association.
While decriminalization and expungement are paramount to legalization, providing business opportunities for minorities in legal cannabis is equally vital, Abernathy said. "It's harder for communities of color to participate in the industry as it gets better capitalized and folks from other industries move into it with their connections," he said. That's why there's been pushback in some state initiatives that disqualify individuals with drug convictions from working with cannabis.
On the investment side of the equation, Abernathy noted that even before Covid, there was a significantly slower capital market than in recent years. But with the industry's uptick during the pandemic, for some investors it's been "a good place to put money in this volatile time," he said. Next year, especially if legalization initiatives pass, "we expect this growth trend to continue."
Another positive trend is the increasing sophistication of cannabis businesses, with publicly-traded companies such as Tilray, Cronos Group, Aurora Cannabis, GW Pharmaceuticals and Canopy Growth as prime examples. They are among start-ups involved in medicinals, CBDs, edibles, vaping and smokable products, as well as cannabis cultivation and distribution, where allowed in the U.S. and other countries. If and when marijuana becomes federally legal in the U.S., those endemic players are likely to be joined by conventional food, beverage, tobacco and other consumer product companies that for years have been anticipating a multi-billion-dollar global cannabis market.
Additionally, the industry has the potential for significant job growth, said Aaron Smith, executive director of the National Cannabis Industry Association in Washington. There are already nearly 244,000 people working full-time in legal cannabis, according to a report by Leafly earlier this year, "but with new states coming on board and [possible] federal legalization, that could turn into tens of millions of jobs," Smith said. "Given the state of the economy, policy makers and voters ought to look to this industry for its economic potential."
Read more here:
The cannabis industry could be a big winner on Election Day - CNBC
- Chasing the Scream | The First and Last Days of the War on ... - January 24th, 2017 [January 24th, 2017]
- The president of the Philippines admits his war on drugs has been dirty - The Economist - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- PDEA: Army to play support role in war on drugs - ABS-CBN News - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Ruto camps in Mombasa, says war on drugs intensified - Daily Nation - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Words won't win war on drugs - The West Australian - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Letter: The failed 'war on drugs' divides country - Rockford Register Star - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Congressmen: Let's take a new look at the war on drugs - AZCentral.com - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- War on drugs not war vs poor: Cayetano - ABS-CBN News - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- President Duterte Threatens to Extend Drug War and Kill Korean ... - Newsweek - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Magufuli adds weight to war on drugs - The Herald - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Philippines: Duterte must end his "war on drugs" - Amnesty International - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- Seares: Branding the war on drugs | SunStar - Sun.Star - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- Opposition against President Duterte's war on drugs mounting: UN investigator - WION - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- WANG: War on Drugs requires smarter, more realistic approach - RU Daily Targum - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Shahbal to introduce tough laws to curb drug abuse - Daily Nation - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Trump Watch: Emboldened cops and border patrol agents, a more 'ruthless' war on drugs, and threats against the ... - Washington Post - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Palma: Church leaders will continue to oppose bloody war on drugs ... - Inquirer.net - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- In Trump's 'ruthless' vow, experts see a return to the days of the drug war - Washington Post - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- DERMODY: War on Drugs requires more than 'quick-fix' - RU Daily Targum - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Rights agency calls for sober talk in war on drugs - Daily Nation - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Mexico Should Ask Trump to Pay For The Drug War - AlterNet - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- Trump on Drug War: 'We're Going to be Ruthless ... We Have No Choice' - CNSNews.com - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- Why war on drugs fires up our soft political underbelly - The Standard (press release) - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- President Duterte Changes and Defends Philippine Drug War - Voice of America - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- War on drugs has left us with a latticework of crime - The Boston Globe - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- Increasing opposition in Philippines to war on drugs: UN official - Reuters - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Unnecessary fighting south of the border: Mexico should ask Trump to pay for the drug war - Salon - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Trump Goes Full Nixon on Law-and-Order Executive Orders, Vows 'Ruthless' War on Drugs and Crime - AlterNet - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Death of a businessman: How the Philippines drugs war was slowed - Reuters - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- President Trump Signs Executive Order Ramping Up The War On ... - TheFix.com - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Sh170m heroin recovered in war on drugs at Coast - The Standard (press release) - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Duterte militarises the war on drugs in the Philippines - World Socialist Web Site - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- After war on drugs, it's 'war vs illegal gambling' for PNP - Rappler - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- President Trump Just Renewed the War on Drugs - MERRY JANE - MERRY JANE - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- Duterte targets Philippine children in bid to widen drug war - Reuters - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- Is Ending The War On Drugs A Panacea? - Modern Times Magazine - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- Scott Pendleton: Civil forfeiture is an important tool in fighting the war on drugs - Tulsa World - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- Donald Trump Vows 'Ruthless' War on Drugs and Crime - The Daily Chronic - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- Simonson: The war on drugs - La Crosse Tribune - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- History of the War on Drugs - About.com News & Issues - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- Trump goes full Nixon on law-and-order, vows ruthless war on drugs and crime - Salon - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Go whole hog in war on drug lords - The Standard (press release) - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Duterte's 'war on drugs' in the Philippines - Deutsche Welle - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- A man of God in the Philippines is helping document a bloody war on drugs - Columbia Journalism Review - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Reckoning with the Addict and the U.S. War on Drugs - OUPblog (blog) - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Duterte calls for stronger AFP support in war on drugs, terror - Inquirer.net - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- In Manila, Catholics March Against War on Drugs Tactics - Voice of America - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Losing the war on drugs - The Review - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- Why we can't seem to end the War on Drugs | TheHill - The Hill (blog) - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- Philippine's Rodrigo Duterte urged to drop charges against leading war on drugs critic - Telegraph.co.uk - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- HRW on war on drugs: PH needs 'international intervention' - Rappler - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- Napolcom: Police need to regroup, rethink role in war on drugs - Inquirer.net - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- Study: Mexican Military Should Not Have Intervened In Country's ... - Fronteras: The Changing America Desk - February 21st, 2017 [February 21st, 2017]
- The 'War On Drugs' Has Been A Deadly Failure - Huffington Post Australia - February 21st, 2017 [February 21st, 2017]
- Senator fighting Philippine president's war on drugs charged without 'iota of evidence,' lawyer says - CBC.ca - February 21st, 2017 [February 21st, 2017]
- Thousands of Filipino Catholics march against death penalty, war on drugs - Reuters - February 22nd, 2017 [February 22nd, 2017]
- Our Aggressive "War on Drugs" Is Not Actually About Drugs - AlterNet - February 22nd, 2017 [February 22nd, 2017]
- War on drugs: a failing battle against suffering - The Suffolk Journal - February 23rd, 2017 [February 23rd, 2017]
- Shots fired in war on drugs - Commonwealth Journal's History - February 23rd, 2017 [February 23rd, 2017]
- Ureport: WAR ON DRUGS NOT ABOUT PERSONAL FIGHTS - The ... - The Standard (press release) - February 23rd, 2017 [February 23rd, 2017]
- Philippines to defend Duterte's drug war at UN rights body - Reuters - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]
- Hidden victims of war on drugs - The Phnom Penh Post - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]
- Palace: Arrest order vs De Lima a 'fulfillment' of war on drugs - Inquirer.net - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]
- Trump administration signals new war on drugs, crackdown on marijuana use - ThinkProgress - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]
- Opponent of Duterte's drugs war arrested in Philippines on drug charges - Reuters - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]
- Philippine citizens protest Duterte's drug war on anniversary of dictatorship overthrow - Deutsche Welle - February 25th, 2017 [February 25th, 2017]
- How Rodrigo Duterte's War On Drugs Looks In Colombia - Worldcrunch - February 25th, 2017 [February 25th, 2017]
- Dela Rosa hopes PNP can focus on drug war anew - Banat - February 27th, 2017 [February 27th, 2017]
- Philippine police say ready to return to war on drugs as dealers return - Reuters - February 27th, 2017 [February 27th, 2017]
- Our View: White House plan reignites wasteful war on drugs - Kennebec Journal & Morning Sentinel - February 27th, 2017 [February 27th, 2017]
- Engaging With The War On Drugs In Ubisoft's Wildlands Documentary - TheSixthAxis - February 28th, 2017 [February 28th, 2017]
- There's one last big-ticket item on Trump's agenda: A war on drugs - Raw Story - February 28th, 2017 [February 28th, 2017]
- No need to relaunch war on drugs: Duterte aide - ABS-CBN News - February 28th, 2017 [February 28th, 2017]
- The Junkie and the Addict: The Moral War on Drugs - Harvard ... - Harvard Political Review - February 28th, 2017 [February 28th, 2017]
- Duterte orders return of police to war on drugs - ABS-CBN News - February 28th, 2017 [February 28th, 2017]
- Yasay: Flak on war on drugs, De Lima arrest just 'partisan politics' - ABS-CBN News - February 28th, 2017 [February 28th, 2017]
- Duterte brings back police into war on drugs - Banat - February 28th, 2017 [February 28th, 2017]
- Philippine president to bring police back into war on drugs - Reuters - February 28th, 2017 [February 28th, 2017]
- Bands I Pretended to Like for Boys. Part Ten: The War on Drugs ... - TheStranger.com - March 1st, 2017 [March 1st, 2017]
- Donald Trump Drug War Strategy | National Review - National Review - March 1st, 2017 [March 1st, 2017]