Here are the first two paragraphs of a Wall Street Journal article about Virgin Galactic, published last night:
Sir Richard Branson’s space-tourism company won’t start passenger flights for at least two more years and operations will ramp up significantly more slowly than previously anticipated, according to its chief pilot.
In an interview, David Mackay said Virgin Galactic, the venture controlled by the British billionaire, likely won’t begin commercial flights until 2013.
First of all, the two paragraphs are at least potentially contradictory. Starting commercial flights in 2013 doesn’t necessarily mean that they won’t start “for at least two more years”, given it’s October 2011: it’s entirely possible that they could start in early 2013, which would imply a delay of a little over one year, not at least two years. (They could, of course, start in late 2013, which would be closer to two years, but Mackay doesn’t provide a specific enough date to make the conclusion in the article’s lede.)
The second issue is that this delay should not be considered a surprise. Pronouncements in recent weeks and months indicated that commercial service would start, at best, in late 2012, with 2013 as a more likely date. For example, Virgin Galactic president and CEO George Whitesides said at the beginning of this month that the company would “try to get to some definition of space by the end of next year”, implying that they would still be performing test flights at the end of 2012.
What is true is that Virgin’s announced date for the beginning of commercial service has been a moving target, one that has been regularly moving to the right. When Virgin’s partnership with Scaled Composites was announced on the eve of Scaled’s X PRIZE-winning flights in September 2004, Virgin was expected to begin commercial flight by2007, a date that has gradually slipped to now 2013. That delay likely has several reasons, including the decision to develop a larger SpaceShipTwo as opposed to a version of the original SpaceShipOne, the July 2007 engine test accident in Mojave that killed three Scaled employees, and usual development delays. (Funding, presumably, has been less of an issue, given Virgin’s resources and outside investment from Aabar.) However, should those schedule slips continue, there will be new questions about Virgin’s ability to follow through on its commercial suborbital plans, and those delays create new opportunities for competitors, like XCOR Aerospace, to close the gap and even begin flights before Virgin.
- Armadillo’s Level 2 LLC attempt coming soon? - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Decisions, decisions - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Armadillo versus the weather - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Photos from Armadillo’s Saturday flights - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Armadillo Level 2 Flight 1 - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Meanwhile, elsewhere in the LLC race - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Masten gets halfway there - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Xombie photos (finally!) - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Is the media clowning around? - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Galactic Suite “on schedule”? - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Scientist Guest Column: Using Commercial Suborbital Spacecraft for Microgravity Chemistry Research - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Building Spaceport Infrastructure: An Overview of the STIM-Grants Program - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Five Years After SpaceShipOne’s Historic X PRIZE Flight, New Challenges Await - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Masten Space Systems Makes Successful Flights to Qualify for $150K NASA Lunar Lander Prize Level 1 - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Distinguished Former NASA Astronauts Endorse Commercial Spaceflight in Wall Street Journal Op-Ed - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- NASA Chief Praises Commercial Spaceflight, Suborbital Science, & Innovation Prizes in Speech - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- CSF Welcomes Strong Support for Commercial Human Spaceflight in White House Panel’s Report - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Commercial Spaceflight Federation President Bretton Alexander Appointed to the NASA Advisory Council - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- In November 5th Public Ceremony, NASA to Award $1.65 Million In Prizes for Commercial Spaceflight Successes - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- CSF Congratulates Winners of NASA’s $2 Million Lunar Lander Challenge - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Welcome to the NewSpace Journal - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Some things even Virgin can’t control - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- While you’re waiting for the rollout… - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- SpaceShipTwo rollout: initial impressions - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- A couple of pics - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- SpaceShipTwo slideshow - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- The Virgin party’s aftermath - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Investment in Commercial Spaceflight Grows to $1.46 Billion, Updated Industry Study Reveals - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Former Astronaut-Astronomer, Sam Durrance, Joins the CSF Suborbital Researchers Group - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Commercial Spaceflight Federation Announces Creation and Initial Membership of Spaceports Council - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- CSF President Bretton Alexander Testifies Before House Science Committee on Spaceflight Safety - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- CSF Vice-Chairman Jeff Greason Testifies Before House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee on Commercial Spaceflight Regulation - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Virgin Galactic Unveils SpaceShipTwo - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- So that’s why Aabar invested in Virgin? - December 15th, 2009 [December 15th, 2009]
- More about the Virgin rollout aftermath - December 17th, 2009 [December 17th, 2009]
- Space tourism as “the final undiscovered frontier”? - December 17th, 2009 [December 17th, 2009]
- Orion Propulsion acquired - December 17th, 2009 [December 17th, 2009]
- Spaceport America developments - December 18th, 2009 [December 18th, 2009]
- XCOR wins a major customer - December 19th, 2009 [December 19th, 2009]
- Centennial Challenges, Spaceport Infrastructure Grants, and Suborbital Science to Receive Funds from NASA and FAA - December 22nd, 2009 [December 22nd, 2009]
- Video tour of Spaceport America - December 24th, 2009 [December 24th, 2009]
- Virgin’s web traffic planning - December 24th, 2009 [December 24th, 2009]
- List of Speakers Announced for the Next-Generation Suborbital Researchers Conference in February - December 31st, 2009 [December 31st, 2009]
- Popular Science Features Commercial Spaceflight on January Cover, Discusses NASA Partnerships - January 4th, 2010 [January 4th, 2010]
- Aviation Week honors the “Space Entrepreneur” - January 5th, 2010 [January 5th, 2010]
- “The Space Entrepreneur” Named by Aviation Week Magazine As Its 2009 Person of the Year - January 5th, 2010 [January 5th, 2010]
- Additional notes about Olsen’s book - January 6th, 2010 [January 6th, 2010]
- Registration deadline approaching for suborbital science conference - January 8th, 2010 [January 8th, 2010]
- NASA Deputy Administrator Lori Garver to Keynote the Next-Generation Suborbital Researchers Conference in February - January 11th, 2010 [January 11th, 2010]
- Cecil Field gets spaceport license – but will anyone use it? - January 12th, 2010 [January 12th, 2010]
- Training begins for suborbital scientist-astronauts - January 12th, 2010 [January 12th, 2010]
- First Class of Suborbital Scientist-Astronauts Successfully Complete NASTAR Training Program - January 14th, 2010 [January 14th, 2010]
- Is “space tour guide” in your professional future? - January 17th, 2010 [January 17th, 2010]
- What can Florida, Indiana, and others learn from Oklahoma? - January 17th, 2010 [January 17th, 2010]
- Virginia wants money, New Mexico wants laws - January 21st, 2010 [January 21st, 2010]
- Commercial Spaceflight Federation Responds to the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel’s 2009 Annual Report - January 21st, 2010 [January 21st, 2010]
- CSF Statement on NASA’s Anticipated Announcement of a $6 Billion Commercial Crew Program and NASA Budget Increase - January 29th, 2010 [January 29th, 2010]
- CSF Welcomes New NASA Human Spaceflight Plan, Congratulates Commercial Crew Development Winners - February 1st, 2010 [February 1st, 2010]
- NASA Unveils Commercial Human Spaceflight Development Agreements and Announces $50 Million in Seed Funding for Commercial Crew - February 3rd, 2010 [February 3rd, 2010]
- James Cameron Endorses Commercial Spaceflight, New NASA Plan - February 4th, 2010 [February 4th, 2010]
- Newt Gingrich and Bob Walker Endorse Obama’s New NASA Plan, Urge Bipartisan Support - February 13th, 2010 [February 13th, 2010]
- Blue Origin proposes orbital vehicle - February 18th, 2010 [February 18th, 2010]
- CSF Announces New Research and Education Affiliates Program, Initial Participating Universities - February 18th, 2010 [February 18th, 2010]
- CSF Welcomes Historic NASA Commitment of $75 Million for Commercial Suborbital Flights, Payloads - February 18th, 2010 [February 18th, 2010]
- Suborbital vehicle development updates - February 19th, 2010 [February 19th, 2010]
- Other conference announcements - February 21st, 2010 [February 21st, 2010]
- Bigger prizes to come? - February 23rd, 2010 [February 23rd, 2010]
- Gov. Bill Richardson Endorses Commercial Spaceflight, Obama’s New NASA Plan - February 23rd, 2010 [February 23rd, 2010]
- Over 250 People Attend Next-Gen Suborbital Researchers Conference, 2011 Meeting Planned for Florida - February 24th, 2010 [February 24th, 2010]
- Boston Globe, Nature, New York Times Editorial Boards Among Others Welcoming New NASA Plan - February 25th, 2010 [February 25th, 2010]
- Commercial Spaceflight Federation Commends New Mexico for Passage of Key Liability Legislation - March 2nd, 2010 [March 2nd, 2010]
- Burt Rutan’s BigThink - March 3rd, 2010 [March 3rd, 2010]
- Brief notes: Soyuz, Virgin, and… iCarly? - March 5th, 2010 [March 5th, 2010]
- Commercial Spaceflight Federation 2009 Annual Report Highlights Industry Progress - March 8th, 2010 [March 8th, 2010]
- SpaceShipTwo flies, on schedule - March 23rd, 2010 [March 23rd, 2010]
- SpaceShipTwo captive carry flight video - March 23rd, 2010 [March 23rd, 2010]
- Over the Mojave Desert, Suborbital Vehicles Take Flight - March 28th, 2010 [March 28th, 2010]
- See WK2 and SS2 fly in New Mexico this October - March 29th, 2010 [March 29th, 2010]
- SA10: Commercial RLV Technology Roadmap update - April 9th, 2010 [April 9th, 2010]
- An evolving Armadillo - April 11th, 2010 [April 11th, 2010]