Despite the clear warnings in Iraq and Afghanistan of the dangers of destroying an existing state, the USA overthrew the Ghaddafi regime in Libya, leading to the collapse of the state, civil war, and a flow of migrants across the Mediterranean that has driven right wing extremism in Europe. In the process, the Obama administration also engaged in blatant deceit of Moscow and Beijing, destroying whatever remained of US diplomatic credibility in those capitals. And the USA has not even been able to prevent one set of allies in the region from boycotting another ally Qatar which is home to a vital US air base!

The current preferred explanation for the latest disasters on the part of the US establishment is the personal behaviour of President Trump and indeed, in all the history of American diplomacy there may be nothing to equal Trumps latest statements on Turkey and the Kurds for illiteracy, irresponsibility and absolute stupidity. In the wider world, some of Trumps instincts appear to be good. Despite all his bluster, he shrinks from actual war, and he opened direct talks with the North Koreans and the Taliban that ought to have been initiated by Washington many years ago. Yet as these examples demonstrate, he appears incapable of the most minimal consistency or steadiness in his approaches, or indeed of grasping the basic dynamics of any given international relationship.

However, the concentration on blaming Trump is also a way for the US and Transatlantic establishments to excuse themselves for the series of disastrous and sometimes criminal decisions (and lack of decisions) by the previous three Democratic and Republican administrations. This pattern has its roots in the decay of the US political system and political establishment at home, including the power of lobbies and their money over US policy in key areas; the retreat of area studies in academia and think tanks, leading to sheer ignorance of some of the key countries with which the USA has to deal; the self-obsession, self-satisfaction and ideological megalomania that in every dispute leads so much of the US establishment and media to cast the USA as a force of absolute good, and its opponents as absolutely evil; and the failure linked to these three syndromes to identify vital an secondary interests and choose between them a failure that has led the USA to the cvrazy position of confronting China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, Turkey and ISIS all at the same time while alienating the countries of the European Union.

However, it must also be acknowledged that the structures of the Middle East itself have also been responsible for many disasters; and that the appalling bitterness, complexity and interconnectedness of the regions problems would have challenged even the wisest and most far-sighted of would-be hegemons. It is not only that almost every state in the region is threatened from within by some combination of failure of socio-economic development, lack of political legitimacy, sectarian strife and rebellious minorities. The way in which these divides cut across the region means that almost every state has the capacity to pose an existential threat to other states, or at least is perceived to have this ability. The resulting set of fears and hatreds could be described as paranoid, except that in many cases they are in fact well-based.

See original here:

The Unholy Mess of US Middle Eastern Strategy - Valdai Discussion Club