Editors Note: This article originally appeared on Order from Chaos.
Iraqs protest movement has been remarkably resilient. For months now, tens of thousands of Iraqis across Baghdad and the south have mobilized against the government, demanding better services, accountability, and wholesale reform of the Iraqi state. Since the protests erupted, more than 600 have been killed and thousands more have been injured, according to human rights organizations. The fallout over Iranian commander Qassem Soleimanis assassination was expected to signal the death-knell of the movement, but even that has failed to decisively end what is arguably Iraqs biggest grassroots socio-political mobilization in history.
Iraqis cannot be blamed for wanting more from their government. Their country is on the brink of a socio-economic implosion as a result of a youth bulge, economic degradation, and dilapidated infrastructure. The countrys population of more than 30 million is expected to reach 50 million in a decade. More than 60 percent of Iraqis are under 24, and 700,000 require jobs every year. Iraqs ruling class has failed to respond to the demands of the population and simply no longer has the credibility, much less the capacity, to assuage its population despite the hundreds of billions of dollars that has been expended over the past decade.
Iraqs ruling class crudely assumed the threat of terrorism, the war on ISIS, and sectarian strife could deflect focus from their governance failures and the endemic (politically sanctioned) corruption in perpetuity. The political class has also capitalized on and exploited a powerful narrative that has been forged among its supportersand indeed some policy circles in Washington and other Western capitalsthat has measured the grievances and calamities of the country against the extremes of civil war or Baath-era rule. This sensationalist narrative propagated the notion of a revived Iraqi state and government and it took hold particularly under the previous Iraqi government of Haidar al-Abadi, yet it ignored underlying, deep-rooted issues that have galvanized an entire generation of Iraqis longing for a better future.
But the odds are against Iraqs protesters. The environment is not conducive to a wholesale deconstruction (followed by a reconstruction) of the state or its political system, and there are very few, if any, major actors internally in Iraq and externally that want a revolutionary change that effectively upends the post-2003 political order in its entirety. Iraqs protesters may have to also come to terms with the reality that the international community is actually much more aligned with the Iraqi ruling class (even the militias brutally suppressing them) than they think: There is far too much at stake and far too many dangerous uncertainties in a post-war climate in Iraq and the region for any major external actors to seriously contemplate backing or actively supporting an attempt to overhaul Iraqs political system.
A large part of the challenge for the protesters is that the Iraqi political system is designed in a way that makes it impervious to a major restructuring. There is a whole host of formal and informal, state and para-state actors that dominate, shape, and manage the structures of governance and power. The country suffers from the inexorable accumulation of weapons and armed groups, the absence of viable institutions, and multiple alternative authorities that supplant the Iraqi state. Many areas are beyond the influence and control of the government, areas where power is distributed diffusely among parties, militias, tribes, and clerics.
As a consequence of these dynamics, and unlike protests in Algeria or Sudan, Iraqs ruling elites are likely to stay in power even if the protests reach critical mass. In other words, save for its destruction by way of an external invasion, a country-wide civil war (which itself requires a decisive victor), or another dictatorship that is brought about through a coup, for example (and even then, Iraqis may be worse off than they currently are), the current system will prevail.
What makes the situation particularly perilous for the protesters is the impunity with which militia groups and state-sanctioned security forces are able to crack down on civilians. Iraq is dominated by unaccountable militia groups that wield substantial power and influence, in large part because these groups have exploited the fragility of the Iraqi state, have amassed considerable weapons and other resources, benefited from external patronage from Iran, and capitalized on all this to acquire political superiority.
The 100,000-strong Popular Mobilization Force (PMF), for example, was formed in response to the collapse of the Iraqi army, when ISIS seized Mosul in 2014. It is led and dominated by Iran-aligned groups that have been at the forefront of the violent crackdown against protesters. The power of the PMF is such that it has subsumed Iraqs conventional army; where it may have once been conceivable that the army would protect protesters from the atrocities of Shiite militias, that is evidently no longer the case.
The popular wisdom before the current crisis was that the PMF was not a homogenous force and included nationalist or state-aligned groups that will prevent Irans proxies from monopolizing power within the organization, groups who will operate as a buffer that insulates the Iraqi population from their violence and atrocities. There were misplaced hopes in the multi-layered characteristics of the PMF. The reality is that Irans proxies have been unmatched in their sheer resolve and ruthlessness to instrumentalize and appropriate powerful institutions like the PMF, and this has been grossly underestimated in the analysis of these groups.
The odds moved further against the protesters because they have arguably lost their single most important buffer against the militia groups that have been responsible for killing and injuring civilians. Muqtada al-Sadr and his Sadrist movement have been critical to protecting them from these groups, but a deal struck last week between al-Sadr, the Iraqi government and Irans proxies has resulted in the cleric withdrawing his support. The amorphous nature of the protest movement means its ranks will continue to swell, even without the support of a major socio-political force like the Sadrists; but the notion that the movement can still survive and sustain itself without the protective cloak of at least one of the major political actors in the country is both extremely dangerous and implausible.
That said, the protesters may have some of their fortunes revived. Iraq is infamous for its fragile political deals and coalitions, and so if there is one thing the protesters can bank on, it is the opportunities that might be thrown their way as a result of the fractious nature of the political landscape. The protesters need to urgently mobilize support from at least one major Iraqi political actor in the wake of Sadrs withdrawal of support. That might also include key institutions like the U.S.-trained Iraqi army, which has fought Irans proxies in the past. Although it is still unlikely that the army will intervene, it is not improbableparticularly if there is some active support from external actors like the U.S.
But the zero-sum approach from the movementcalling for the entire overhaul of the political systemmakes them their own worst enemy. The absence of a concerted effort to mobilize significant support within the Iraqi political arena makes them extremely vulnerable and exposed to malign forces. Moreover, the protests are not disconnected from other domestic and regional dynamics, including tensions between the U.S. and Iran. The rocket attack on the U.S. embassy by militia groups last week was immediately followed by a vicious crackdown against protesters. A broader conflict between the U.S. and Iran, or some other conflagration, could gift Irans proxies with the perfect smokescreen for launching an expanded violent campaign that looks to decisively end the protests. The fate of the protesters may also be decided away from the glare of the media: the backroom deals, the assassinations, kidnappings, and the occasional attacks launched in total darkness.
The coming weeks will be critical for determining whether Iraqs protest movement can sustain itself and, more importantly, yield at least some objectives focused on improving governance and reforming the state. The government may increasingly turn to violence, but case studies from around the world and the scholarly literature on protest movements show that while coercion might decrease protest temporarily, it far from neutralizes them; in the longer run, coercion increases the dissidence that enables protest movements to revive themselves. On every occasion the Iraqi government relies on coercion, the protesters are likely to adapt their strategies accordingly and reinforce their resiliency as a result.
See the original post:
The Irresistible Resiliency of Iraq's Protesters - Lawfare
- Modern Survival Manual Surviving the Economic Collapse - December 18th, 2016 [December 18th, 2016]
- What Explains the Collapse of the USSR? - E-International ... - January 13th, 2017 [January 13th, 2017]
- Where Should the External Priorities of the Visegrd Lie? - Visegrad Insight - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- PH gov't, communists urged to pursue talks even without ceasefire - Inquirer.net - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- New Texts Out Now: Helga Tawil-Souri and Dina Matar, eds. Gaza as Metaphor - Jadaliyya - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Kazakhstan Going Into Soft Power Overdrive - EurasiaNet - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Economic Crash 2017 and How the Next Financial Crisis Could Be Worse Than 2008 - Lombardi Letter - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Mass incarceration and the perfect socio-economic storm - OUPblog (blog) - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Give peace a chance, not 'all-out' war, say solons, Leftist Cabinet members - InterAksyon - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Celebrating Black History: Detroit Techno icons - Mixmag - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Why 'financial inclusion' may be the wrong terminology - NewsDay - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- 'Conspiracy' in peace talks collapse seen - Inquirer.net - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- 2017 and beyond: Future unpredictable - Zimbabwe Independent - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Zuma's interventions will deal with white monopoly capital - Office of ANC Chief Whip - Politicsweb - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- Lobster crash erodes West Coast way of life - GroundUp - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Hopes remain for revival of peace talks - Manila Bulletin - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Lobster crash erodes West Coast way of life - News24 - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- Financial Black Swans Could Rock 2017 Stock Market Forecast - Lombardi Letter - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Zimbabwe: A Crisis Unfolding - Zimbabwe | ReliefWeb - ReliefWeb - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- 'Bumper harvest to stop aid politicisation' - Nehanda Radio - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Zimbabwe: A Crisis Unfolding - New Zimbabwe.com - New Zimbabwe.com - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- Who We Play For saving lives through athlete heart screenings - Tallahassee.com - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Terrorist resurgence - Daily Times - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Seeing Sabon Tasha in new light - Daily Trust - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- Facing tragedy with courage - The News International - February 28th, 2017 [February 28th, 2017]
- Socio-Economic Collapse | Prometheism.net - Part 3 - March 1st, 2017 [March 1st, 2017]
- Rethinking Nonviolent Resistance In The Face Of Right-Wing ... - Huffington Post - March 3rd, 2017 [March 3rd, 2017]
- Vladimir Putin Isn't a Supervillain - Foreign Policy (blog) - March 3rd, 2017 [March 3rd, 2017]
- First ceiling collapse at Charlotte Maxeke in January already, claim staff - News24 - March 3rd, 2017 [March 3rd, 2017]
- Rethinking Nonviolent Resistance in the Face of Right-Wing Populism - The Wire - March 4th, 2017 [March 4th, 2017]
- Historical Materialism Versus Historical Conceptualism - Dissident Voice - March 6th, 2017 [March 6th, 2017]
- World Bank, Sokoto Govt commit N9b for rebuilding of collapsed ... - THISDAY Newspapers - March 8th, 2017 [March 8th, 2017]
- Nigeria: Sokoto Govt and World Bank pledges $28.8million for rehabilitation of collapsed Dam - Ecofin Agency: Economic information from Africa - March 9th, 2017 [March 9th, 2017]
- Time for a rebirth of Zimbabwean politics - Bulawayo24 News (press release) (blog) - April 8th, 2017 [April 8th, 2017]
- This Brexit battle is cold, hard capitalism vs. civilised, co-operative order - The New European - April 8th, 2017 [April 8th, 2017]
- Swet Shop Boys: Why white skin is no longer a safety net - Deutsche Welle - June 6th, 2017 [June 6th, 2017]
- Impact of Prez Akufo-Addo's W/A tour on economy - Graphic Online - June 6th, 2017 [June 6th, 2017]
- Important meeting for our nation's future | Deniliquin Pastoral Times - Deniliquin Pastoral Times (registration) (blog) - June 8th, 2017 [June 8th, 2017]
- Creating a Better Economy with Data Science - Stanford Social Innovation Review (subscription) - June 8th, 2017 [June 8th, 2017]
- TB Joshua : 'Investigate Fani-Kayode's claims on Synagogue building collapse' - Analyst - Pulse Nigeria - June 11th, 2017 [June 11th, 2017]
- Integration and security: Estonia's Russian-speaking minority - New Eastern Europe - June 12th, 2017 [June 12th, 2017]
- Late Matanzima celebrated as a visionary- Education, development described as his legacy - Daily dispatch - June 16th, 2017 [June 16th, 2017]
- Prof. Guy Standing: Every country can afford Universal Basic Income - EURACTIV - June 16th, 2017 [June 16th, 2017]
- Climate, social equality also behind collapse of govt formation talks: Green leader - NL Times - June 17th, 2017 [June 17th, 2017]
- Country needs USDA Rural Development - Iowa Farmer Today - June 17th, 2017 [June 17th, 2017]
- The downgrade and retirement funds: what does it mean? - African Independent - June 18th, 2017 [June 18th, 2017]
- National priorities defy convention in St Lucia - St. Lucia Times News - St. Lucia Times Online News (press release) - June 20th, 2017 [June 20th, 2017]
- Use of harmful chemicals for fish preservation harmful to consumers - Ghana News Agency - June 20th, 2017 [June 20th, 2017]
- Use of harmful chemicals for fish preservation harmful to consumers ... - BusinessGhana - June 22nd, 2017 [June 22nd, 2017]
- Op-Ed: South Africa's central bank row points to dangerous levels of intolerance - CNBCAfrica.com - June 22nd, 2017 [June 22nd, 2017]
- Collapsed bridge cut off over 5000 residents in llorin - National Accord - June 22nd, 2017 [June 22nd, 2017]
- The Wonderful World of Binary Categorizations - Geopoliticalmonitor.com - June 23rd, 2017 [June 23rd, 2017]
- Dangerous levels of intolerance exposed in Reserve Bank row - Independent Online - June 23rd, 2017 [June 23rd, 2017]
- South Africa's central bank row points to dangerous levels of intolerance - eNCA - June 24th, 2017 [June 24th, 2017]
- Reserve Bank battle points to dangerous levels of intolerance - Mail & Guardian - June 26th, 2017 [June 26th, 2017]
- There is a strong economic case to preserve future of traditional fishing - Alfred Sant - Malta Independent Online - June 27th, 2017 [June 27th, 2017]
- Empowering Women in Developing Economies - HuffPost - June 30th, 2017 [June 30th, 2017]
- Is this the end of Daesh? - Arab News - July 2nd, 2017 [July 2nd, 2017]
- Nkomo could have saved Zim: Zapu - NewsDay - July 3rd, 2017 [July 3rd, 2017]
- Govt completes inspection 1.6 lakh bridges, plans new tech - Zee News - July 3rd, 2017 [July 3rd, 2017]
- Centre claims to have completed safety audit of 1.6 lakh bridges; to work on 147 dilapidated structures - Firstpost - July 3rd, 2017 [July 3rd, 2017]
- Collapse of UT and Capital banks A case of a collective national failure (Article) - Citifmonline - August 24th, 2017 [August 24th, 2017]
- UNZA vice-chancellor lays down marker - Zambia Daily Mail - August 24th, 2017 [August 24th, 2017]
- What Makes a Terrorist? - The New York Review of Books - August 24th, 2017 [August 24th, 2017]
- How the Collapse of Venezuela Really Happened - The ... - February 18th, 2018 [February 18th, 2018]
- Socio-Economic Collapse in the Congo: Causes and Solutions - October 3rd, 2018 [October 3rd, 2018]
- Sick Bees Part 18F8: Colony Collapse Revisited ... - April 25th, 2019 [April 25th, 2019]
- Classic Maya collapse - Wikipedia - April 25th, 2019 [April 25th, 2019]
- Great Civilizations Aren't Murdered, They Commit Suicide ... - May 5th, 2019 [May 5th, 2019]
- Dollar Collapse Predictions: What Will Happen When It Happens? - May 5th, 2019 [May 5th, 2019]
- 10 Steps to Prepare for Americas Economic Collapse - May 31st, 2019 [May 31st, 2019]
- Do you really think NDC faithful would ever condemn a coup dtat? - Modern Ghana - October 1st, 2019 [October 1st, 2019]
- Economic and Institutional Restructuring for the Next Nigeria - Soludo - Proshare Nigeria Limited - October 1st, 2019 [October 1st, 2019]
- ET CEO Roundtable: Build a wealthier nation with state help, industry execution - Economic Times - October 1st, 2019 [October 1st, 2019]
- Ghanaians could well face the wrath of God should they betray the Free SHS provider! - Modern Ghana - October 1st, 2019 [October 1st, 2019]
- The Return to Power of Local Hotel Brands? | By Robert Govers - Hospitality Net - October 1st, 2019 [October 1st, 2019]
- Brexit: Systemic Risk and a Warning - Resilience - October 1st, 2019 [October 1st, 2019]
- Why is Poland's Law and Justice party still so popular? - EUROPP - European Politics and Policy - October 1st, 2019 [October 1st, 2019]
- Presidential elections in Tunisia: who are the globalists betting on? - United World International - October 16th, 2019 [October 16th, 2019]
- Kevin Taylor, youre a reporter, not an opinionist; youre guided by the rule of impartiality! - Modern Ghana - October 16th, 2019 [October 16th, 2019]