The writer heads the Sustainable Development Policy Institute.
We have not seen this level of near-universal poverty in any country in recent history, said Ms Kanni Wignaraja, assistant secretary of the United Nations Development Programme, last month, while referring to the deteriorating economic situation of Afghanistan. The UN estimates that the percentage of the Afghan population living below less than $1.90 when the Taliban took over will increase from 50 percent to 97 percent by next summer.
The above shocking numbers were partly due to changing weather patterns, prolonged periods of drought accompanied by above-average temperatures. Food insecurity further worsened after the change in regime in Kabul. According to the World Food Programs (WFP) estimates released in the beginning of this month, three million Afghans were at the brink of famine. Likewise, an equal number of children are malnourished. Another 23 million, in a country of 38 million, faced acute hunger. Out of those, 8.7 million were only one step behind famine: in WFP language, in a state of emergency. Children and women in Afghanistan are the worst affected by this situation. There are four million internally displaced persons in Afghanistan; of them, 80 percent are women and children.
In its recent story, The Economist has described the worsening situation in Afghanistan in these words, Locals report cases of entire families starving to death in their homes. Hospital wards are taking in emaciated children, including 11-year-olds who weigh just 13kg. Poor Afghans are selling their remaining possessions for food. Some are selling their daughters. The misery is as bad in the cities as it is in the countryside. As the winter sets in, the agony will only deepen.
A closer analysis reveals that Western Coalition Forces were merely interested in maintaining a status quo in war-torn Afghanistan during the last two decades. They did nothing to stabilise Afghanistan as a country.
Under twenty years of coalition-supported rule, the Afghan economy did not prove to be much different from its armed forces. Both collapsed without showing any sign of resistance. While a strategic affairs expert can tell you about the armed forces, let me describe why the Afghan economy collapsed after the Talibans victory.
It would not be wrong to say that successive governments in Afghanistan were dependent on foreign aid. Till August 2021 (before the Taliban interim government), Afghanistan used to receive $8.5 billion per annum as foreign aid. That external financing was equal to 45 percent of its GDP, and financed 75 percent of the government budget, including almost all health, education and security spending.
Almost 80 percent of its electricity needs are met through imports from neighbouring countries (from Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Iran). Other essential imports include wheat (from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Pakistan), fuel (from Iran, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan), and medicines (from India, Pakistan, and Iran). Since America has frozen Afghan assets worth $9 billion, it is unable to pay for its imports.
The Afghan government does not print its local currency and hence is facing a shortage of it. Half a million soldiers and police personnel have lost their jobs, and civil servants, including 220,000 teachers, have gone unpaid for months. Only last week, the Taliban government made partial payments to select civil servants through the meagre revenue collected during the three months of their rule.
The US lists the Taliban as specially designated global terrorists (SDGT) so routing payments through US dollar payment system is fraught with criminal liability. As per the UN Security Councils Resolution 1988 (mandatory implementation by all countries), the Afghan Taliban as an entity are not sanctioned. However, some cabinet members are listed under UNSC 1988. Hence dealing with the Taliban may invoke international sanctions. The US Office for Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has frozen the assets of the Afghan government. And the Taliban government is yet to be recognised by any country in the world.
Due to the sanctions, Afghanistans commercial banks face difficulties in transactions with correspondent banks and interbank placements. They are at risk of insolvency. Strict withdrawal limits have been imposed on depositors local currency/foreign currency accounts. This has undermined payments for general imports, leading to a shortage of critical imports such as food, fuel and electricity.
The OFAC, while upholding and enforcing US sanctions against the Taliban, the Haqqani Network, and other sanctioned entities, has issued General License (GL) 14 and GL15. Through GL14, the US Treasury will continue to work with financial institutions, international organisations, and the NGO community to ease the flow of critical resources, like agricultural goods, medicine, and other essential supplies, to people in need.
Through GL15, certain transactions related to exporting or re-exporting agricultural commodities, medicine, and medical devices are authorised.
Mexico, Ireland and Norway (UNSC members) and international NGOs support exceptions of humanitarian assistance as part of the UN sanction regime. Likewise, Switzerland, Chad and the Philippines (and a few others) have enacted national legislation to protect humanitarian assistance from material support offences. Despite the backing of the above-mentioned countries, and OFACs GL 14 & 15, routing US dollars funds transfer to Afghanistan is exceedingly complicated.
In September 2021, donors pledged $1 billion in response to the UNs flash appeal for $600 million. However, only one-third of those pledges could materialise. The European Union promised $1.15 billion in October. Yet 300 million euros of that had already been committed, and much of the rest will be provided to Afghanistans neighbours so they may send humanitarian assistance. The WFP requires around $220 million a month to avert a food crisis during the harsh winter months.
Pakistan may face the direct brunt of the evolving humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan. In case of an economic collapse (which may be quite soon under the existing scenario), Pakistan needs to be ready to host up to another one million, mostly non-vaccinated both for Covid-19 and polio, refugees. Sharing its essential imports (wheat, petroleum products, and vaccines) with the refugees would further increase the current account deficit, affecting the value of the rupee versus US dollar and the interest rate. On top of it, Pakistan would have no filter to distinguish foes (members of anti-Pakistan groups) from friends among the refugees. A few thousand miscreants among a half-million peaceful Afghan refugees would be enough to sabotage the peace that the people of Pakistan achieved after braving hundreds of suicide bombers during the last two decades.
The socio-economic security of Pakistan and, most notably, the dignified assistance of Afghan people, are linked with a resumption of foreign aid if not unfreezing of Afghan assets.
No one can disagree with the Western demands for fundamental rights for Afghans. However, punishing the intended beneficiaries and letting them starve to death because their rulers are not respecting their basic rights is akin to throwing the baby out with the bathwater and must be avoided.
The West can follow the Yemeni model, where Houthis the de-facto rulers of Yemen do not enjoy international recognition. However, the international community is funding Yemeni civil servants and the people of Yemen, calling it support to President Hadis government in exile (based in Saudi Arabia).
Finally, we dont have to pay the Taliban to pay the salaries of staffers of basic services delivery departments or take care of food aid in Afghanistan. International NGOs and UN agencies can hire such civil servants as their short-term service providers and pay them directly, bypassing the Taliban. However, a functional banking system is a prerequisite for transferring such aid. The US would have to come up with an innovative solution for that.
Afghans are calling; one hopes the West is paying attention to their miseries.
Twitter: @abidsuleri
Here is the original post:
The Afghans are calling - The News International
- Modern Survival Manual Surviving the Economic Collapse - December 18th, 2016 [December 18th, 2016]
- What Explains the Collapse of the USSR? - E-International ... - January 13th, 2017 [January 13th, 2017]
- Where Should the External Priorities of the Visegrd Lie? - Visegrad Insight - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- PH gov't, communists urged to pursue talks even without ceasefire - Inquirer.net - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- New Texts Out Now: Helga Tawil-Souri and Dina Matar, eds. Gaza as Metaphor - Jadaliyya - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Kazakhstan Going Into Soft Power Overdrive - EurasiaNet - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Economic Crash 2017 and How the Next Financial Crisis Could Be Worse Than 2008 - Lombardi Letter - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Mass incarceration and the perfect socio-economic storm - OUPblog (blog) - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Give peace a chance, not 'all-out' war, say solons, Leftist Cabinet members - InterAksyon - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Celebrating Black History: Detroit Techno icons - Mixmag - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Why 'financial inclusion' may be the wrong terminology - NewsDay - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- 'Conspiracy' in peace talks collapse seen - Inquirer.net - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- 2017 and beyond: Future unpredictable - Zimbabwe Independent - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Zuma's interventions will deal with white monopoly capital - Office of ANC Chief Whip - Politicsweb - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- Lobster crash erodes West Coast way of life - GroundUp - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Hopes remain for revival of peace talks - Manila Bulletin - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Lobster crash erodes West Coast way of life - News24 - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- Financial Black Swans Could Rock 2017 Stock Market Forecast - Lombardi Letter - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Zimbabwe: A Crisis Unfolding - Zimbabwe | ReliefWeb - ReliefWeb - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- 'Bumper harvest to stop aid politicisation' - Nehanda Radio - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Zimbabwe: A Crisis Unfolding - New Zimbabwe.com - New Zimbabwe.com - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- Who We Play For saving lives through athlete heart screenings - Tallahassee.com - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Terrorist resurgence - Daily Times - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Seeing Sabon Tasha in new light - Daily Trust - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- Facing tragedy with courage - The News International - February 28th, 2017 [February 28th, 2017]
- Socio-Economic Collapse | Prometheism.net - Part 3 - March 1st, 2017 [March 1st, 2017]
- Rethinking Nonviolent Resistance In The Face Of Right-Wing ... - Huffington Post - March 3rd, 2017 [March 3rd, 2017]
- Vladimir Putin Isn't a Supervillain - Foreign Policy (blog) - March 3rd, 2017 [March 3rd, 2017]
- First ceiling collapse at Charlotte Maxeke in January already, claim staff - News24 - March 3rd, 2017 [March 3rd, 2017]
- Rethinking Nonviolent Resistance in the Face of Right-Wing Populism - The Wire - March 4th, 2017 [March 4th, 2017]
- Historical Materialism Versus Historical Conceptualism - Dissident Voice - March 6th, 2017 [March 6th, 2017]
- World Bank, Sokoto Govt commit N9b for rebuilding of collapsed ... - THISDAY Newspapers - March 8th, 2017 [March 8th, 2017]
- Nigeria: Sokoto Govt and World Bank pledges $28.8million for rehabilitation of collapsed Dam - Ecofin Agency: Economic information from Africa - March 9th, 2017 [March 9th, 2017]
- Time for a rebirth of Zimbabwean politics - Bulawayo24 News (press release) (blog) - April 8th, 2017 [April 8th, 2017]
- This Brexit battle is cold, hard capitalism vs. civilised, co-operative order - The New European - April 8th, 2017 [April 8th, 2017]
- Swet Shop Boys: Why white skin is no longer a safety net - Deutsche Welle - June 6th, 2017 [June 6th, 2017]
- Impact of Prez Akufo-Addo's W/A tour on economy - Graphic Online - June 6th, 2017 [June 6th, 2017]
- Important meeting for our nation's future | Deniliquin Pastoral Times - Deniliquin Pastoral Times (registration) (blog) - June 8th, 2017 [June 8th, 2017]
- Creating a Better Economy with Data Science - Stanford Social Innovation Review (subscription) - June 8th, 2017 [June 8th, 2017]
- TB Joshua : 'Investigate Fani-Kayode's claims on Synagogue building collapse' - Analyst - Pulse Nigeria - June 11th, 2017 [June 11th, 2017]
- Integration and security: Estonia's Russian-speaking minority - New Eastern Europe - June 12th, 2017 [June 12th, 2017]
- Late Matanzima celebrated as a visionary- Education, development described as his legacy - Daily dispatch - June 16th, 2017 [June 16th, 2017]
- Prof. Guy Standing: Every country can afford Universal Basic Income - EURACTIV - June 16th, 2017 [June 16th, 2017]
- Climate, social equality also behind collapse of govt formation talks: Green leader - NL Times - June 17th, 2017 [June 17th, 2017]
- Country needs USDA Rural Development - Iowa Farmer Today - June 17th, 2017 [June 17th, 2017]
- The downgrade and retirement funds: what does it mean? - African Independent - June 18th, 2017 [June 18th, 2017]
- National priorities defy convention in St Lucia - St. Lucia Times News - St. Lucia Times Online News (press release) - June 20th, 2017 [June 20th, 2017]
- Use of harmful chemicals for fish preservation harmful to consumers - Ghana News Agency - June 20th, 2017 [June 20th, 2017]
- Use of harmful chemicals for fish preservation harmful to consumers ... - BusinessGhana - June 22nd, 2017 [June 22nd, 2017]
- Op-Ed: South Africa's central bank row points to dangerous levels of intolerance - CNBCAfrica.com - June 22nd, 2017 [June 22nd, 2017]
- Collapsed bridge cut off over 5000 residents in llorin - National Accord - June 22nd, 2017 [June 22nd, 2017]
- The Wonderful World of Binary Categorizations - Geopoliticalmonitor.com - June 23rd, 2017 [June 23rd, 2017]
- Dangerous levels of intolerance exposed in Reserve Bank row - Independent Online - June 23rd, 2017 [June 23rd, 2017]
- South Africa's central bank row points to dangerous levels of intolerance - eNCA - June 24th, 2017 [June 24th, 2017]
- Reserve Bank battle points to dangerous levels of intolerance - Mail & Guardian - June 26th, 2017 [June 26th, 2017]
- There is a strong economic case to preserve future of traditional fishing - Alfred Sant - Malta Independent Online - June 27th, 2017 [June 27th, 2017]
- Empowering Women in Developing Economies - HuffPost - June 30th, 2017 [June 30th, 2017]
- Is this the end of Daesh? - Arab News - July 2nd, 2017 [July 2nd, 2017]
- Nkomo could have saved Zim: Zapu - NewsDay - July 3rd, 2017 [July 3rd, 2017]
- Govt completes inspection 1.6 lakh bridges, plans new tech - Zee News - July 3rd, 2017 [July 3rd, 2017]
- Centre claims to have completed safety audit of 1.6 lakh bridges; to work on 147 dilapidated structures - Firstpost - July 3rd, 2017 [July 3rd, 2017]
- Collapse of UT and Capital banks A case of a collective national failure (Article) - Citifmonline - August 24th, 2017 [August 24th, 2017]
- UNZA vice-chancellor lays down marker - Zambia Daily Mail - August 24th, 2017 [August 24th, 2017]
- What Makes a Terrorist? - The New York Review of Books - August 24th, 2017 [August 24th, 2017]
- How the Collapse of Venezuela Really Happened - The ... - February 18th, 2018 [February 18th, 2018]
- Socio-Economic Collapse in the Congo: Causes and Solutions - October 3rd, 2018 [October 3rd, 2018]
- Sick Bees Part 18F8: Colony Collapse Revisited ... - April 25th, 2019 [April 25th, 2019]
- Classic Maya collapse - Wikipedia - April 25th, 2019 [April 25th, 2019]
- Great Civilizations Aren't Murdered, They Commit Suicide ... - May 5th, 2019 [May 5th, 2019]
- Dollar Collapse Predictions: What Will Happen When It Happens? - May 5th, 2019 [May 5th, 2019]
- 10 Steps to Prepare for Americas Economic Collapse - May 31st, 2019 [May 31st, 2019]
- Do you really think NDC faithful would ever condemn a coup dtat? - Modern Ghana - October 1st, 2019 [October 1st, 2019]
- Economic and Institutional Restructuring for the Next Nigeria - Soludo - Proshare Nigeria Limited - October 1st, 2019 [October 1st, 2019]
- ET CEO Roundtable: Build a wealthier nation with state help, industry execution - Economic Times - October 1st, 2019 [October 1st, 2019]
- Ghanaians could well face the wrath of God should they betray the Free SHS provider! - Modern Ghana - October 1st, 2019 [October 1st, 2019]
- The Return to Power of Local Hotel Brands? | By Robert Govers - Hospitality Net - October 1st, 2019 [October 1st, 2019]
- Brexit: Systemic Risk and a Warning - Resilience - October 1st, 2019 [October 1st, 2019]
- Why is Poland's Law and Justice party still so popular? - EUROPP - European Politics and Policy - October 1st, 2019 [October 1st, 2019]
- Presidential elections in Tunisia: who are the globalists betting on? - United World International - October 16th, 2019 [October 16th, 2019]
- Kevin Taylor, youre a reporter, not an opinionist; youre guided by the rule of impartiality! - Modern Ghana - October 16th, 2019 [October 16th, 2019]