Key point:To support the 2009 strategy, the Kremlin needed to acquire 1,000 new airplanes and helicopters by 2020.
The Russian air force deployed Su-57 stealth fighters to Syria a second time since first deploying them to the war-torn country in February 2018.
But that doesnt mean the twin-engine Su-57 is any closer to being ready for mass production, to say nothing of its readiness for full-scale warfare against a high-tech foe.
The Russian militarys chief of the general staff Valery Gerasimov announced the deployment in mid-December 2019, according to TASS.
"The fifth-generation Su-57 aircraft is being tested, Gerasimov said. They were re-tested in Syria, during which all the planned tasks were successfully completed."
But its unclear what those tasks might have been. The Su-57s first deployment to Syria apparently did not involve any actual combat. Its possible the 2019 deployment didnt, either.
The two T-50s that took part in the 2018 deployment appeared in Syria along with a Russian air force A-50 radar plane, four Su-25 attack planes and four Su-35s fighters. The warplanes arrived in Syria following weeks of intensive airstrikes by Russian planes targeting areas controlled by anti-regime rebels in Idlib and East Ghouta.
U.S. and coalition forces monitoring the air space over Syria reacted with caution. The Su-57s presence certainly raises the level of complexity the crews have to deal with out there, Air Combat Command Commander Holmes said, according to a tweet from Aviation Week reporter Lara Seligman.
But the coalition also seemed to acknowledge the limited combat potential that just two warplanes represented, regardless of their stealth qualities. The presence of any new Russian aircraft in the region does not affect coalition operations, nor do we see this as a danger to coalition aircraft, a coalition spokesperson stated.
In deploying Su-57s, the Kremlin was outright gambling with precious prototypes and their pilots lives, according to Tom Cooper, an aviation expert and author. The Su-57 was then, and remains, a prototype fighter.
The Russian air force possesses just a dozen or so of the type, which flew for the first time in 2010 but has suffered from a dearth of funding and the collapse of a co-development deal with India.
As of early 2018, the Su-57 possessed inadequate and incomplete sensors, incomplete fire-control systems and self-protection suites, no operational integrated avionics and ... unreliable engines, Cooper noted.
The plane had conducted hardly any weapons-separation testing and lacked any other operational weapons beside its 30-millimeter internal cannon. Worse, the aircraft were flown by pilots who lack any kind of doctrine or tactics for the type and who cannot really depend upon the planes avionics and other systems, according to Cooper.
Shortly following the 2018 deployment, the Kremlin suspended production of the Su-57 after the 28th copy, effectively canceling the program. Russian president Vladimir Putin dramatically revived the program in mid-2019, announcing a plan to buy an additional 48 copies.
The Kremlin ordered its first dozen production-standard Su-57s in August 2018, hoping to form the first regular squadron some time in 2019.
Turkey later expressed interest in buying the type after its insistence on acquiring Russian-made air-defense systems got it kicked out of the American-led F-35 program. Moscow has touted the United Arab Emirates as another potential buyer. These possible sales obviously incentivize Russia to portray the Su-57 as an operational warplane.
But for all the drama of its de facto cancelation then restart and for all the talk of exports, the Su-57 program remains under-funded and under-developed. Its one thing for Russia to announce an order for 48 more of the fighters. Its another for the government actually to pay for the planes, and for Sukhoi actually to build them.
It's unclear how much the Su-57's development has cost so far, how much the program would need to complete development and how much each production-standard plane would set back Russian taxpayers. The U.S. military spent more than $60 billion acquiring around 180 F-22s and expects to spend $400 billion buying some 2,300 F-35s.
But the Su-57 undoubtedly is expensive. And time is running out for the Russian air force to integrate the type into its force structure. The "fifth-generation" stealth fighter began development in the early 2000s, but its fortunes are tied to the Kremlin's 2009 defense strategy, which aimed to reverse years of budget cuts and declining military readiness.
In May 2009, Dmitriy Medvedev, then Russia's president, announced a new national security strategy through the year 2020. The strategy praised former, and future, president Putin for leading Russia out of its "political and socio-economic systemic crisis" and anticipated that Russia would "consolidate its influence in the world arena" as a leading political and economic power.
"Unprecedented" new spending backed up the new strategy, according to the 2017 edition of the International Institute for Strategic Studies' "The Military Balance" report. "The proportion of military spending increased when measured against GDP, placing Russia in a small group of nations spending over five percent of GDP on defense."
"After almost two decades of deterioration and neglect of the Russian military, Moscow began developing a more modern military force capable of power projection outside Russias borders," the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency reported in 2017.
The spending supported five fighter production lines -- one producing the Su-57, three making variants of the Su-27 including the Su-30, the Su-34 and the Su-35 and a fifth manufacturing versions of the MiG-29. Russian air arms received around 200 new and upgraded aircraft in 2017, another 100 in 2018 and around 130 in 2019. By comparison, the U.S. armed forces ordered more than 400 new aircraft in 2018 alone.
An economic downturn, which shaved nearly four percent off of GDP in 2015, forced Moscow to reconsider its priorities. "In preparing the 2016 budget, there was clear awareness that this level of spending could not be sustained," IISS reported.
A few years of higher spending had a dramatic effect on the Russian air force. "Substantial deliveries of new frontline aircraft, and their intensive use in Syria, have given the Russian air force an entirely new public face in a short period of time," analyst Keir Giles wrote in a 2017 report for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
"Optimistic Russian commentators, comparing their airpower specifically with that of the United States, note approximate quantitative parity with the U.S. Air Force," Giles continued.
In fact, the DIA estimated in 2017 that Russian air arms maintained just 1,000 tactical aircraft. At the same time, the U.S. Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps between them possessed more than 3,000 fighters, including hundreds of F-22 and F-35 stealth fighters.
To support the 2009 strategy, the Kremlin needed to acquire 1,000 new airplanes and helicopters by 2020, the DIA estimated. Deepening budget cuts could force the Russian armed forces to make do with far fewer new aircraft. The same cash-crunch could weigh on plans to buy scores of Su-57s, and bodes poorly for the types development into a fully combat-capable warplane.
In light of the difficulties the Su-57 program faces, the purported second Syria deployment likely achieved as much as the 2018 deployment did. Nothing much.
David Axe serves as Defense Editor of the National Interest. He is theauthor of the graphic novelsWar Fix,War Is BoringandMachete Squad.
Image: Wikipedia.
Read the original post:
- Modern Survival Manual Surviving the Economic Collapse - December 18th, 2016 [December 18th, 2016]
- What Explains the Collapse of the USSR? - E-International ... - January 13th, 2017 [January 13th, 2017]
- Where Should the External Priorities of the Visegrd Lie? - Visegrad Insight - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- PH gov't, communists urged to pursue talks even without ceasefire - Inquirer.net - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- New Texts Out Now: Helga Tawil-Souri and Dina Matar, eds. Gaza as Metaphor - Jadaliyya - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Kazakhstan Going Into Soft Power Overdrive - EurasiaNet - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Economic Crash 2017 and How the Next Financial Crisis Could Be Worse Than 2008 - Lombardi Letter - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Mass incarceration and the perfect socio-economic storm - OUPblog (blog) - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Give peace a chance, not 'all-out' war, say solons, Leftist Cabinet members - InterAksyon - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Celebrating Black History: Detroit Techno icons - Mixmag - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Why 'financial inclusion' may be the wrong terminology - NewsDay - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- 'Conspiracy' in peace talks collapse seen - Inquirer.net - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- 2017 and beyond: Future unpredictable - Zimbabwe Independent - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Zuma's interventions will deal with white monopoly capital - Office of ANC Chief Whip - Politicsweb - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- Lobster crash erodes West Coast way of life - GroundUp - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Hopes remain for revival of peace talks - Manila Bulletin - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Lobster crash erodes West Coast way of life - News24 - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- Financial Black Swans Could Rock 2017 Stock Market Forecast - Lombardi Letter - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Zimbabwe: A Crisis Unfolding - Zimbabwe | ReliefWeb - ReliefWeb - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- 'Bumper harvest to stop aid politicisation' - Nehanda Radio - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Zimbabwe: A Crisis Unfolding - New Zimbabwe.com - New Zimbabwe.com - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- Who We Play For saving lives through athlete heart screenings - Tallahassee.com - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Terrorist resurgence - Daily Times - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Seeing Sabon Tasha in new light - Daily Trust - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- Facing tragedy with courage - The News International - February 28th, 2017 [February 28th, 2017]
- Socio-Economic Collapse | Prometheism.net - Part 3 - March 1st, 2017 [March 1st, 2017]
- Rethinking Nonviolent Resistance In The Face Of Right-Wing ... - Huffington Post - March 3rd, 2017 [March 3rd, 2017]
- Vladimir Putin Isn't a Supervillain - Foreign Policy (blog) - March 3rd, 2017 [March 3rd, 2017]
- First ceiling collapse at Charlotte Maxeke in January already, claim staff - News24 - March 3rd, 2017 [March 3rd, 2017]
- Rethinking Nonviolent Resistance in the Face of Right-Wing Populism - The Wire - March 4th, 2017 [March 4th, 2017]
- Historical Materialism Versus Historical Conceptualism - Dissident Voice - March 6th, 2017 [March 6th, 2017]
- World Bank, Sokoto Govt commit N9b for rebuilding of collapsed ... - THISDAY Newspapers - March 8th, 2017 [March 8th, 2017]
- Nigeria: Sokoto Govt and World Bank pledges $28.8million for rehabilitation of collapsed Dam - Ecofin Agency: Economic information from Africa - March 9th, 2017 [March 9th, 2017]
- Time for a rebirth of Zimbabwean politics - Bulawayo24 News (press release) (blog) - April 8th, 2017 [April 8th, 2017]
- This Brexit battle is cold, hard capitalism vs. civilised, co-operative order - The New European - April 8th, 2017 [April 8th, 2017]
- Swet Shop Boys: Why white skin is no longer a safety net - Deutsche Welle - June 6th, 2017 [June 6th, 2017]
- Impact of Prez Akufo-Addo's W/A tour on economy - Graphic Online - June 6th, 2017 [June 6th, 2017]
- Important meeting for our nation's future | Deniliquin Pastoral Times - Deniliquin Pastoral Times (registration) (blog) - June 8th, 2017 [June 8th, 2017]
- Creating a Better Economy with Data Science - Stanford Social Innovation Review (subscription) - June 8th, 2017 [June 8th, 2017]
- TB Joshua : 'Investigate Fani-Kayode's claims on Synagogue building collapse' - Analyst - Pulse Nigeria - June 11th, 2017 [June 11th, 2017]
- Integration and security: Estonia's Russian-speaking minority - New Eastern Europe - June 12th, 2017 [June 12th, 2017]
- Late Matanzima celebrated as a visionary- Education, development described as his legacy - Daily dispatch - June 16th, 2017 [June 16th, 2017]
- Prof. Guy Standing: Every country can afford Universal Basic Income - EURACTIV - June 16th, 2017 [June 16th, 2017]
- Climate, social equality also behind collapse of govt formation talks: Green leader - NL Times - June 17th, 2017 [June 17th, 2017]
- Country needs USDA Rural Development - Iowa Farmer Today - June 17th, 2017 [June 17th, 2017]
- The downgrade and retirement funds: what does it mean? - African Independent - June 18th, 2017 [June 18th, 2017]
- National priorities defy convention in St Lucia - St. Lucia Times News - St. Lucia Times Online News (press release) - June 20th, 2017 [June 20th, 2017]
- Use of harmful chemicals for fish preservation harmful to consumers - Ghana News Agency - June 20th, 2017 [June 20th, 2017]
- Use of harmful chemicals for fish preservation harmful to consumers ... - BusinessGhana - June 22nd, 2017 [June 22nd, 2017]
- Op-Ed: South Africa's central bank row points to dangerous levels of intolerance - CNBCAfrica.com - June 22nd, 2017 [June 22nd, 2017]
- Collapsed bridge cut off over 5000 residents in llorin - National Accord - June 22nd, 2017 [June 22nd, 2017]
- The Wonderful World of Binary Categorizations - Geopoliticalmonitor.com - June 23rd, 2017 [June 23rd, 2017]
- Dangerous levels of intolerance exposed in Reserve Bank row - Independent Online - June 23rd, 2017 [June 23rd, 2017]
- South Africa's central bank row points to dangerous levels of intolerance - eNCA - June 24th, 2017 [June 24th, 2017]
- Reserve Bank battle points to dangerous levels of intolerance - Mail & Guardian - June 26th, 2017 [June 26th, 2017]
- There is a strong economic case to preserve future of traditional fishing - Alfred Sant - Malta Independent Online - June 27th, 2017 [June 27th, 2017]
- Empowering Women in Developing Economies - HuffPost - June 30th, 2017 [June 30th, 2017]
- Is this the end of Daesh? - Arab News - July 2nd, 2017 [July 2nd, 2017]
- Nkomo could have saved Zim: Zapu - NewsDay - July 3rd, 2017 [July 3rd, 2017]
- Govt completes inspection 1.6 lakh bridges, plans new tech - Zee News - July 3rd, 2017 [July 3rd, 2017]
- Centre claims to have completed safety audit of 1.6 lakh bridges; to work on 147 dilapidated structures - Firstpost - July 3rd, 2017 [July 3rd, 2017]
- Collapse of UT and Capital banks A case of a collective national failure (Article) - Citifmonline - August 24th, 2017 [August 24th, 2017]
- UNZA vice-chancellor lays down marker - Zambia Daily Mail - August 24th, 2017 [August 24th, 2017]
- What Makes a Terrorist? - The New York Review of Books - August 24th, 2017 [August 24th, 2017]
- How the Collapse of Venezuela Really Happened - The ... - February 18th, 2018 [February 18th, 2018]
- Socio-Economic Collapse in the Congo: Causes and Solutions - October 3rd, 2018 [October 3rd, 2018]
- Sick Bees Part 18F8: Colony Collapse Revisited ... - April 25th, 2019 [April 25th, 2019]
- Classic Maya collapse - Wikipedia - April 25th, 2019 [April 25th, 2019]
- Great Civilizations Aren't Murdered, They Commit Suicide ... - May 5th, 2019 [May 5th, 2019]
- Dollar Collapse Predictions: What Will Happen When It Happens? - May 5th, 2019 [May 5th, 2019]
- 10 Steps to Prepare for Americas Economic Collapse - May 31st, 2019 [May 31st, 2019]
- Do you really think NDC faithful would ever condemn a coup dtat? - Modern Ghana - October 1st, 2019 [October 1st, 2019]
- Economic and Institutional Restructuring for the Next Nigeria - Soludo - Proshare Nigeria Limited - October 1st, 2019 [October 1st, 2019]
- ET CEO Roundtable: Build a wealthier nation with state help, industry execution - Economic Times - October 1st, 2019 [October 1st, 2019]
- Ghanaians could well face the wrath of God should they betray the Free SHS provider! - Modern Ghana - October 1st, 2019 [October 1st, 2019]
- The Return to Power of Local Hotel Brands? | By Robert Govers - Hospitality Net - October 1st, 2019 [October 1st, 2019]
- Brexit: Systemic Risk and a Warning - Resilience - October 1st, 2019 [October 1st, 2019]
- Why is Poland's Law and Justice party still so popular? - EUROPP - European Politics and Policy - October 1st, 2019 [October 1st, 2019]
- Presidential elections in Tunisia: who are the globalists betting on? - United World International - October 16th, 2019 [October 16th, 2019]
- Kevin Taylor, youre a reporter, not an opinionist; youre guided by the rule of impartiality! - Modern Ghana - October 16th, 2019 [October 16th, 2019]