Still, even the most successful scenario for his invasion of Ukraine easy victory, no real insurgency, a pliant government installed seems likely to undercut some of the interests hes supposedly fighting to defend. NATO will still nearly encircle western Russia, more countries may join the alliance, European military spending will rise, more troops and material will end up in Eastern Europe. There will be a push for European energy independence, some attempt at long-term delinking from Russian pipelines and production. A reforged Russian empire will be poorer than it otherwise might be, more isolated from the global economy, facing a more united West. And again, all this assumes no grinding occupation, no percolating antiwar sentiment at home.
Its possible Putin just assumes the West is so decadent, so easily bought off, that the spasms of outrage will pass and business as usual resume without any enduring consequences. But lets assume that he expects some of those consequences, expects a more isolated future. What might be his reasoning for choosing it?
Here is one speculation: He may believe that the age of American-led globalization is ending no matter what, that after the pandemic certain walls will stay up everywhere, and that the goal for the next 50 years is to consolidate what you can resources, talent, people, territory inside your own civilizational walls.
In this vision the future is neither liberal world-empire nor a renewed Cold War between competing universalisms. Rather its a world divided into some version of what Bruno Maes has called civilization-states, culturally cohesive great powers that aspire, not to world domination, but to become universes unto themselves each, perhaps, under its own nuclear umbrella.
This idea, redolent of Samuel P. Huntingtons arguments in The Clash of Civilizations a generation ago, clearly influences many of the worlds rising powers from the Hindutva ideology of Indias Narendra Modi to the turn against cultural exchange and Western influence in Xi Jinpings China. Maes himself hopes a version of civilizationism will reanimate Europe, perhaps with Putins adventurism as a catalyst for stronger continental cohesion. And even within the United States you can see the resurgence of economic nationalism and the wars over national identity as a turn toward these kinds of civilizational concerns.
See more here:
Opinion | Vladimir Putins Clash of Civilizations - The New York Times
- Putin Starting to Worry About His Strategy After Trump Calls Him Smart - The New Yorker - March 3rd, 2022 [March 3rd, 2022]
- Opinion | Mr. Putin, the War in Ukraine Is Not in My Name - The New York Times - March 3rd, 2022 [March 3rd, 2022]
- Blinken says Putin has his sights on countries beyond Ukraine - CBS News - March 3rd, 2022 [March 3rd, 2022]
- Putin has been accused of committing war crimes. But could the International Criminal Court bring him to justice? - ABC News - March 3rd, 2022 [March 3rd, 2022]
- Russian citizens, growing frustrated with Putin, are taking to the streets - Fox News - March 3rd, 2022 [March 3rd, 2022]
- Putins war is a watershed moment for the EU the days of never again are back - The Guardian - March 3rd, 2022 [March 3rd, 2022]
- Putins invasion of Ukraine suggests the peace dividend is fading - The Guardian - March 3rd, 2022 [March 3rd, 2022]
- We have no illusions: we know Putin will try everything to bomb us into submission - The Guardian - March 3rd, 2022 [March 3rd, 2022]
- Vladimir Putin: Whats going on inside his head? - The Guardian - March 3rd, 2022 [March 3rd, 2022]
- Putin shunned by world as his hopes of quick victory evaporate - The Guardian - March 3rd, 2022 [March 3rd, 2022]
- Reading Putin: Unbalanced or cagily preying on West's fears? - The Associated Press - en Espaol - March 3rd, 2022 [March 3rd, 2022]
- Putins War to Bring Ukraine to Heel Unites Eastern Europe in Alarm - The New York Times - March 3rd, 2022 [March 3rd, 2022]
- Ill Stand on the Side of Russia: Pro-Putin Sentiment Spreads Online - The New York Times - March 3rd, 2022 [March 3rd, 2022]
- Fuming Vladimir Putin is isolated and erratic, fears he might be assassinated - Marca English - March 3rd, 2022 [March 3rd, 2022]
- Biden and Putin, Children of the Cold War, Face Off Over Ukraine - The New York Times - March 3rd, 2022 [March 3rd, 2022]
- Satellite image shows super yacht linked to Putin out of reach of sanctions - CBS News - March 3rd, 2022 [March 3rd, 2022]
- Arts organizations decide whether to work with Putin-supporting artists : Deceptive Cadence - NPR - March 3rd, 2022 [March 3rd, 2022]
- Vladmir Putin, 66, admits he will 'soon' marry his 35-year ... - March 3rd, 2022 [March 3rd, 2022]
- After Putin-Macron Call, France Sees Russia Wanting 'All Ukraine' - The New York Times - March 3rd, 2022 [March 3rd, 2022]
- Putin's dwindling options and isolation fuel fears about his next moves - CBS News - March 3rd, 2022 [March 3rd, 2022]
- Russians Have Suddenly Stopped Buying Putins Anti ... - March 3rd, 2022 [March 3rd, 2022]
- Putins misadventure unites the West Press Enterprise - March 3rd, 2022 [March 3rd, 2022]
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- Putins forces struggling to make gains in eastern Ukraine because they dont like to fight in the rain - Evening Standard - April 28th, 2022 [April 28th, 2022]
- The West has successfully called Vladimir Putin's bluff - The Telegraph - April 28th, 2022 [April 28th, 2022]
- United Nations secretary general, Antnio Guterres, arrives in Ukraine as it happened - The Guardian - April 28th, 2022 [April 28th, 2022]
- The Bizarre Russian Prophet Rumored to Have Putins Ear - The Bulwark - April 28th, 2022 [April 28th, 2022]
- Trump blasts Putin's use of the 'N-word' on Piers Morgan's new show - New York Post - April 28th, 2022 [April 28th, 2022]
- FIRST READING: Putin heads a 'fascistic' government, says former PM Stephen Harper - National Post - April 28th, 2022 [April 28th, 2022]
- Father of slain Ukrainian baby calls Putin 'terrorist' and 'murderer' - New York Post - April 28th, 2022 [April 28th, 2022]
- Putin could withdraw from Ukraine because of massive popularity in Russia, says Boris Johnson - The Independent - April 28th, 2022 [April 28th, 2022]
- Beyond Putin: Russian imperialism is the No. 1 threat to global security - Atlantic Council - April 28th, 2022 [April 28th, 2022]
- Bill Clinton says he couldn't have done anything to prevent Putin's aggression in Ukraine - Fox News - April 28th, 2022 [April 28th, 2022]
- Opinion | Russias Putin Now Seems to Believe Conspiracy Theories - The New York Times - April 28th, 2022 [April 28th, 2022]
- Putin accuses West of 'terror', tells prosecutors to be tough - Reuters.com - April 28th, 2022 [April 28th, 2022]
- www.theguardian.com - April 28th, 2022 [April 28th, 2022]
- Putin Must Be Stopped Once and for All - The Daily Beast - April 28th, 2022 [April 28th, 2022]
- Putin threatens Ukraine allies as Truss urges doubling down on support for Kyiv - The Guardian - April 28th, 2022 [April 28th, 2022]
- Chechnya once resisted Russia. Now, its leader is Putin's brutal ally in Ukraine - NPR - April 28th, 2022 [April 28th, 2022]
- Putin's horror plot EXPOSED as despot tries to blame slaughter of POWs on West - Express - August 5th, 2022 [August 5th, 2022]
- NATO 'will react' if Putin attacks - causing 'most dangerous situation since WW2' - Express - August 5th, 2022 [August 5th, 2022]
- Putins former banker warns about his health - AS USA - August 5th, 2022 [August 5th, 2022]
- Putins Threshold of Pain - Asharq Al-awsat - English - August 5th, 2022 [August 5th, 2022]
- Putin is banking on a failure of political will in the west before Russia runs out of firepower - The Guardian - August 5th, 2022 [August 5th, 2022]
- Putin cant control his Ukraine cataclysm and the US must get ready - The Hill - August 5th, 2022 [August 5th, 2022]
- Fact check: Photo of guards saluting Putin was taken in Russia in 2020 - USA TODAY - August 5th, 2022 [August 5th, 2022]
- Turkeys Erdogan to meet Putin in Russia: What to expect - Al Jazeera English - August 5th, 2022 [August 5th, 2022]
- Ukraine pushes Putin body-double theory, points out this head feature - New York Post - August 5th, 2022 [August 5th, 2022]
- If you rag on Putin, don't go near the window - The Canberra Times - September 8th, 2022 [September 8th, 2022]
- Phillip Schofield: how the TV presenter gave a fresh spin to Putins propaganda - The Guardian - September 8th, 2022 [September 8th, 2022]
- What Does Putin's Aggression Mean for Stability in the Western Balkans - Newsweek - September 8th, 2022 [September 8th, 2022]
- Putin to come face-to-face with Truss and Zelensky for first time since Ukraine invasion - Express - September 8th, 2022 [September 8th, 2022]
- Six Months of War: What Putin Wanted; What Putin Got - The Moscow Times - September 8th, 2022 [September 8th, 2022]
- 'Lukashenko Is Easier to Unseat Than Putin' - The Atlantic - September 8th, 2022 [September 8th, 2022]
- Putin to be tested by Ukrainian counterattacks commanders face dilemma over focus - Express - September 8th, 2022 [September 8th, 2022]
- Musk cited Putin speech in early attempt to get out of Twitter deal - Business Insider - September 8th, 2022 [September 8th, 2022]
- Putin says sanctions are a 'danger' to the world; Ukraine counterattacks in Kharkiv while Russian troops are occupied in the south - CNBC - September 8th, 2022 [September 8th, 2022]
- West reluctant to put Putin on trial, say Ukrainian officials - The Guardian - September 8th, 2022 [September 8th, 2022]
- Why Vladimir Putin still has widespread support in Russia - The Conversation - September 8th, 2022 [September 8th, 2022]
- Exiled Russian calls on those still in country to sabotage Putins war - The Guardian - September 8th, 2022 [September 8th, 2022]
- Is the West Ready for the Second Russian Revolution? - The National Interest Online - October 19th, 2022 [October 19th, 2022]
- Russias Oligarch Wives Claim Putin Is Suffering From a Secret Illness - October 27th, 2022 [October 27th, 2022]
- Putin Admits Russia Is Facing 'Issues' in the Ukraine War - October 27th, 2022 [October 27th, 2022]
- Vladimir Putin Faces Dissent From Both Sides as Russian Mood Sours - October 27th, 2022 [October 27th, 2022]
- Vladimir Putin - Wikipedia - October 27th, 2022 [October 27th, 2022]
- Vladimir Putin given three years to live and is losing his eyesight ... - October 27th, 2022 [October 27th, 2022]
- US has warned Putin against using nuclear weapons, Blinken says - October 27th, 2022 [October 27th, 2022]