The Economistspredictive modelcurrently gives Donald Trump a 2 percent likelihood of winning more votes than Joe Biden in November, but a one-in-eight chance of winning a second term via the Electoral College. With four months to go before voters cast their ballots, his campaign has so far failed to coalesce around a theme. So far they have flailed from Keep America Great to Make America Great Again, Again to promising a Transition into Greatness. According toPolitico, Trumps team built a comprehensive 2020 reelection plan around winning a slice of black and Hispanic voters, which is not going well.

The contours of the rights campaign to retain its grip on the White House are not difficult to discern. Trump is setting up a claim of massive fraud via mail-in balloting. Attorney General Bill Barr hinted over the weekend that John Durhams investigation into the Russia probe will yield fruits this summer. And Senate Republicans are pursuing their investigation into the conspiracy theories surrounding Hunter Bidens work in Ukraine.

But the primary thrust of the campaign will be chaos. The campaign, the conservative press and sundry social media trolls are all relentlessly pushing a messageto white conservatives that American cities are in flames as violent leftists riot, their history is being erased, cops are being targeted by fast-food employeesand in the end,these monsters will be coming for them and their families.The New York Times reports that thanks to social media amplification, residents in at least 41 U.S. cities and towns became alarmed by rumors that the loose collective of anti-fascist activists known as antifa was headed to their areaIn each case, it was foran enemy that never appeared.

Statues of Jesus are next. It wont end. Pray for the USA

Matt Schlapp (@mschlapp) June 22, 2020

Obviously, none of this is new. Trump launched his 2016 campaign blathering about Mexican rapists, gave a bizarre inaugural address with the theme of stopping American carnage and insisted that hes the law and order president before having protesters brutally cleared from Lafayette Square so he could take a photo op with an upside-down bible outside St. Johns Cathedral.

What is new is the context. Weve lost over 120,000 people to Covid-19 and we have the highest levels of unemployment since the Great Depression. Millions of Americans have been cooped up in their homes with minimal human contact for months. And above all, these sustained protests for Black Lives and renewed efforts to rid our public spaces of monuments to white supremacy pose the greatest threat to a segment of white Americas sense of their position in this society since the election of a black man with a funny name to the White House. Fear and stress dominate and were about to enter a long, hot summer.

We have gotten a taste of whats in store during the months ahead. Police say a far-right boogaloo boi was responsible for killing two police officers and wounding five others in two separate attacks in California. Three of his fellow extremists who were armed with Molotov cocktails to target police attemptedto cause riots in Las Vegas. A right-wing militia member shot a protester attempting to remove a statue of a brutal Conquistador in Albuquerque; an armed, off-duty airport cop was arrested for taking a snipers position above a statue of Robert E. Lee in Virginia. David Neiwert reports that Proud Boys and other extremists are hanging around the Seattle Capitol Hill Organized Protest, beating people up on side streets when they can. Two weeks ago, the brother of a Seattle police employee drove his car into a crowd of protesters and then shot one of them who tried to block his path. That wasnt an isolated incidentas of a week ago, at least 19 people had driven vehicles into protesters, according to The Washington Post,including a white supremacist who fatally struck a black protester in California. (And while police say multiple black men found hanging in public spaces were victims of suicide, the widespread skepticism about those speedy conclusions is understandable.)

There is a reticence in the mainstream press to connect these assaults to the rhetoric coming from the White House and the conservative media, but while most people will shrug off their hyperbole, it only takes a few unstable and heavily armed people to wreak havoc. Less than two years ago, Magabomber Cesar Sayoc attempted a murder spree inspired by Trumps many conspiracy theories and several acts of murder and terror have been connected to the QAnon craziness.

The reprise of Trumps American carnage campaign is bad politics. While the data suggest that James Comeys 11th-hour announcement that the FBI was reopening its investigation into Hillary Clintons emails was responsible for Trumps narrow 2016 victory, his take-away was that the demagoguery worked. He tried to reprise it by fear mongering over MS-13 and an invading caravan of refugees in 2018, only to see his party handed its biggest midterm defeat in history.

The problem is that its the only play in his playbook, hes being beaten badly at this point and neither he nor his movement cares about whether people get killed as a result of their unhinged rhetoric.

then let us make a small request. AlterNets journalists work tirelessly to counter the traditional corporate media narrative. Were here seven days a week, 365 days a year. And were proud to say that weve been bringing you the real, unfiltered news for 20 yearslonger than any other progressive news site on the Internet.

Its through the generosity of our supporters that were able to share with you all the underreported news you need to know. Independent journalism is increasingly imperiled; ads alone cant pay our bills. AlterNet counts on readers like you to support our coverage. Did you enjoy content from David Cay Johnston, Common Dreams, Raw Story and Robert Reich? Opinion from Salon and Jim Hightower? Analysis by The Conversation? Then join the hundreds of readers who have supported AlterNet this year.

Every reader contribution, whatever the amount, makes a tremendous difference. Help ensure AlterNet remains independent long into the future. Support progressive journalism with a one-time contribution to AlterNet, or click here to become a subscriber. Thank you. Click here to donate by check.

Read more:

How many people will be killed as a result of Trumps unhinged re-election campaign? - AlterNet