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Should You Try Face Cupping, the Anti-Aging Treatment Celebs … – Health.com

Posted on March 3, 2017 by ev1

Cupping made headlines during the 2016 Rio Olympics, when MichaelPhelps attributed the round, purplebruises on his back to the alternative medicine practiceusedto treat everything from muscle soreness toarthritis and blood diseases. Now, celebrities are getting the skin-suctioning therapy on a newpart of their bodies: their faces.

Kim Kardashianrecently posted a photo onSnapchatof a collection of serum bottles and glass jars with balloons on top. "Face cupping facial at Nurse Jamie," she wrote on the pic. We wanted to know: doescuppingreally help rejuvenate skin? And what about the bruising?! (The reality star did not share apost-treatment selfie.)

RELATED: The 27 Best Anti-Aging Tips of All Time

In an interview with The Hollywood Reporter, Nurse Jamie (aka Jamie Sherrill), facialist to the stars,said thatcupping uses mild suction to drain lymph nodes, getting "rid of any sign of a jowl and fight[ing] inflammation for a perfect profile or over-the-shoulder photo moment."She uses the technique at Beauty Park Medical Spa, a destination forA-listersseekingnon-surgical skin treatments.Kate Beckinsdale's aesthetician, Kat Rudu, also uses facial cupping on her celebclients, according to The Hollywood Reporter.

To get a doctor's take on whether cupping really can lead to a younger-looking complexion, we spoke withNew York City-based dermatologist Debra Jaliman, MD: "Facial cupping promotes circulation of blood to the face. For some people, its extremely relaxing," she says.And unlike body cupping, it doesn't leave marks.

The procedure works like this: Glass cups with balloons attached are placed on the skin and used to gently lift facial tissue for a massage-like effect. The sucking motion can drain lymph nodes and increase thesupply of oxygen and nutrients toyour skin, says Dr. Jaliman. Immediately after the procedure, clients often report that their muscles feel relaxed,and that they see a reduction in wrinkles and fine lines, she says.

There is a caveat however: The anti-agingeffects are fleeting. "The results last hours or days," says Dr. Jaliman, pointing out that unlike the average Jane, celebs can afford to splurge on fun treatments like cupping. (A75-minute session with Nurse Jamie costs $325.)

If you want youthful skin without paying top dollar for a face-sucking session, Dr. Jaliman recommends investing in quality anti-aging products, such as avitamin C serumandretinol cream. The results of a proper skincare regimen last much, much longer, she says.

Ed Vasicek: The ever-surfacing future has arrived – Kokomo Tribune

Posted on March 2, 2017 by Danzig

Although I frequently drive through downtown Kokomo, I still marvel at new construction and recently completed marvels. A dozen years ago, who could have predicted todays Kokomo?

No one can predict the future. We can make predictions, and sometimes (just by virtue of statistical probability) they are going to be right. Tomorrow, for example, the temperature is going to be (1) typical, (2) warmer than usual or (3) colder than usual. If I make enough guesses, I will accurately predict the future temperature perhaps a third of the time.

Futurists men and women who specialize in studying trends and taking the futures pulse tend to offer visions of the future that are worth noting, even if they sometimes miss the mark. When documented changes are already occurring, we need to wake up and smell the coffee.

When I was a lad, one major fear was an over-crowded world. We were told mass starvation and a host of others woes would characterize our planet because the earth could not sustain the large population looming at our door.

I am not sure when the sky-is-falling bunch turned their focus elsewhere, but when was the last time you heard a political crusader rant and rave about overpopulation? There is a reason for this silence, according to bbc.com:

Its a largely untold story gradually, steadily the demographic forces that drove the global population growth in the 20th Century have shifted. Fifty years ago the world average fertility rate the number of babies born per woman was five. Since then, this most important number in demography has dropped to 2.5 something unprecedented in human history and fertility is still trending downwards ... The population will continue to grow as the Peak Child generation grows up and grows old. So most probably three or four billion new adults will be added to the world population but then in the second half of this century the fast growth of the world population will finally come to an end.

Our quest to consider the future leads us to Bill Gates. Bill Gates is not so much a futurist as he is a man who makes the future happen. Gates is quite concerned about germ warfare. According to futurism.com:

When billionaire and philanthropist Bill Gates gave a speech at the Munich Security Conference for the first time Saturday, he argued a very alarming possibility: the future of international security will be fought on the biological front. Specifically, Gates warned about the dangers of a bioterrorist attack that could wipe out 30 million people in less than a year and how were not prepared for it.

... What makes Gates warning even more alarming is the fact that bioterrorism can now be done from behind a computer. Its also true that the next epidemic could originate on the computer screen of a terrorist intent on using genetic engineering to create a synthetic version of the smallpox virus ... or a super contagious and deadly strain of the flu, said Gates.

His suggestion: We need to develop the facilities to develop vaccines within 90 days instead of the more typical two-year period. Will our governments take note?

Lets move on to renewable energy. Green energy is no longer a futurists dream, but a dream that is clearly materializing. One state, Texas, leads the way. According to theguardian.com:

For Texas, this most Republican-dominated, oil-rich and fracking-friendly of states has found itself with the improbable status of being a national leader in this growing form of renewable energy.

Texas has 11,592 turbines and an installed wind capacity of 20,321 megawatts, according to the American Wind Energy Association: three times as much capacity as the next state, Iowa. (California is third.) For the 12-month period ending in October last year, wind provided 12.68% of Texass electricity production equivalent to powering 5.7 million homes.

The ever-surfacing future has arrived and continues to arrive at breakneck speed!

Ed Vasicek is pastor of Highland Park Church and a weekly contributor to the Kokomo Tribune. Contact him at edvasicek@gmail.com

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Ed Vasicek: The ever-surfacing future has arrived - Kokomo Tribune

This Is Why The Youth Is Picking Up Arms In Kashmir – Youth Ki Awaaz

Posted on March 2, 2017 by Danzig

Excessive military presence in public spaces, a rigid approach adopted by the ruling power in India and, most importantly, the grave human rights violations in the aftermath of the deathof militant commander Burhan Muzaffar Wani have increased home-grown militancy and radicalization among the Kashmiri population.

Educated youth havingpicked up arms to fight for a cause, lackgenuine training and are these days giving a tough time to the highly equipped government forces. Although, the situation exhibits that the current situationin Kashmir is similar toan armed struggle, it can never be compared to the insurgency of the 90s. The popular local support, the seed sown by Burhan Wani and the unrest after his death have motivated the educated youth towards militancy.

They feel that the government of India does not care about their pain and suffering due to the lingering Kashmir issue. In such circumstances, declaring militancy because of lack of economic opportunities and frustration due to high unemployment is contradictory to their demands.

Before the 2016 unrest, the Indian army under theArmed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) used to cordon off the whole area or village for anencounter with armed militants. After Burhan Wanis killing, the whole scenario has changed. Now, the local populace come out on the streets during search operations and start throwing stones to help the militants escape. Many civilians have lost their lives and a large number of people have been injured. With such obstructions the army has, on several occasions, called off the search operations.

Recently, armed personnel of the 55 Rashtriya Rifles (a Special Operation Group of Jammu & Kashmir Police from Pulwama and Newa) cordoned off Urivan village after a tip-offthat two Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) militants were hiding there. When the government forces started a combing operation, the local population attacked the army and SOG personnel with stones, thus, forcing the men in uniforms to vacate the site.

The armed forces in Kashmir are now taking stern steps to deal with the people who help militants. They have been directed to use only rifles and drop their batons. This direction has comeafter General Bipin Rawat issued warnings of harsh action against those who help militants escape.

The army has also tried the use of soft measures like using smoke cover to prevent locals from obstructing operations but this has not yielded much result, forcing them to consider using harsher methods. The state government has now decided to impose strict restrictions within a radius of three km from the site of any counter-insurgency operation in Kashmir.

On the other hand,students in the Valleys educational institutes, including those at Kashmir University, are now openly cautioning the government to end oppression and suppression of the people of Kashmir otherwise they will be left with no choice but to pick up guns. Recently, despite the ban on students politics, there was a protest march inside the campus of Kashmir University expressing solidarity with the families of militants and civilians killed in an encounter in Kulgam South Kashmir. Shouting pro-azadi(freedom) and anti-India slogans, the protesting students carried banners reading, End Occupation, Free Kashmir.

Nowadays, informers have become a new headache for the army units in Kashmir. Twice in the past fortnight, the armys local informers in the Valley double-crossed them and gave ared herring to the units involved in operations, leading theminto the militants trap.

Undoubtedly, there is much support to the militants in Kashmir by the local people, but the fact is that youngsters mostly get killed within a period of a month or two after joining militancy. Every encounter ends on a bitter note. Sometimes, civilians also fall to the bullets from the forces. Militant, innocent, policeman or even army at the end of the day, is made up by humans who lose their precious lives. To end the humanitarian crisis in Kashmir, the ruling partyhas to shun its stubbornness and initiate a process by taking concrete and honest steps for the resolution of the Kashmir issue.

The writer can be reached at: [emailprotected]

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This Is Why The Youth Is Picking Up Arms In Kashmir - Youth Ki Awaaz

Duterte renews attack on Church as he defends war on drugs – Inquirer.net

Posted on March 2, 2017 by Danzig

President Rodrigo Duterte delivers a speech on Thursday, March 2, 2017, at the groundbreaking ceremony of the Cebu-Cordova Link Expressway. (Photo from a video by RTVM)

CORDOVA, Cebu President Rodrigo Duterte stepped up his attacks again on Thursday against the Catholic Church, whom he had been accusing of hypocrisy as he defended his administrations war against illegal drugs.

In a speech laced with profanities, Duterte pointed out that priests were fond of wearing golden cross on their chests and using golden chalices while living in palaces.

In contrast, he added, Jesus Christ was nailed to a simple wooden cross and used wooden cups.

Mga pari wa nay gibuhat ug dili magyawyaw. Gwapog mga palasyo. Ibaligya na ninyo. Palit ninyog bugas ihatag sa pobre. Nya undang nag pang (kolekta). Kung dili, ipadakop ta mo. Extortion, he said, speaking in Cebuano, his native tongue.

(Priests do nothing else but rant. They live in palaces. You should sell those and use the money to buy rice for the poor. And stop collecting money. If you dont, I will have you arrested for extortion.

Duterte was here to grace the groundbreaking ceremony for the third bridge that would connect Cebu Island and Mactan Island.

The Cebu-Cordova Link Expressway (CCLEX) in Cordova town is a Public-Private Partnership between Cordova town and Cebu City and the private proponent Metro Pacific Tollways Development Corp. (MPTDC), which is owned by Manny Pangilinan.

Duterte was supposed to arrive at 3:00 p.m. at the boundary of Barangays Dapitan and Pilipog in Cordova to head in the lowering of the time capsule on the site where the bridge would be constructed.

But he arrived at 4:50 p.m.

His 30-minute speech was focused mostly on defending his war on drugs and his scathing attacks against the Catholic Church.

Catholic Church leaders have repeatedly condemned Dutertes war on drugs, which has claimed at least 7,000 lives.

But Duterte maintained that he was committed to stop illegal drugs in the country.

Fathers, monsignors, bishops, this means to say: Marami pang patayan to, kasi lalaban talaga yan, he said.

(Fathers, monsignors, bishops, this means to say: There will be more killings, because they will really fight back.

It wont end tomorrow for as long as there is a drug pusher and drug lord, he added.

He pointed out that while the Catholic priests would not want any more deaths in the ongoing war against drugs, the list of identified drug personalities could not just be disregarded.

He said he would order the precinct commanders in towns and cities all over the country to give the Catholic priests a list of all persons playing drugs and destroying lives of innocents.

Theres a whale of a difference between killing an innocent person and killing a criminal. They ought not to be mixed up, he stressed.

I do not need martial law, he went on. I do not need to declare a suspension of the writ of habeas corpus. You destroy my country, you destroy the youth, I do not give a shit kung tanan pari magluhod, maghangad langit, mag ampo (if all the priest kneel down and pray and beg). I have a country to preserve and that is the Filipino nation. It has nothing to do with religion.

The President also alludedthe contents of the report of the New York-based Human Rights Watch (HRW).

According to the 124-page report, more than 7,000 people have been killed mostly by unidentified gunmen and some during police operations since Duterte assumed office in July 2016.

But Duterte pointed out that the government had also lost its share of law enforcers. Among them, he said, were the 32 soldiers and 29 police officers who went after the drug laboratories, including in Mindanao.

He said it was his order to the police and military to hunt down drug personalities. If they would violently resist, then law enforcers should just kill these personalities instead of being killed themselves.

I will kill you if you destroy the youth of my land. They are our assets, Duterte said. /atm

Couple Gunned Down in Philippines Suspected Victims of President Duterte’s War on Drugs – Newsweek

Posted on March 2, 2017 by Danzig

Jomar Palamar and his girlfriend Juday Escilona were killed in the early hours of Wednesday, cut down in a hail of bullets fired by unknown gunmen in a rundown backstreet of the Philippines capital Manila.

Described by a family member and community leaders as drug users, the couple appeared to be the latest victims of the deadly war on drugs launched by President Rodrigo Duterte in which over 8,000 people have died. Most have been small-time dealers and users killed in police operations or shot dead by unknown gunmen.

Duterte said on Tuesday he would recall some police to anti-drugs operations to provide fresh impetus to the campaign. He had suspended police from operations a month ago after which the killings slowed but did not end.

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Police said they did not know who killed Palamar, 22, and Escilona, 20.

"They were on a watch list, because they were users," said Nestor del Rosario, the deputy leader of the local barangay, or community, who was huddled along with dozens of neighbors behind a police cordon at the crime scene.

Police and barangay officials said the two died in shots fired by gunmen on motorcycles as they stepped out of a ramshackle convenience store in the Pasong Tamo area of Manila. At least a dozen shots were fired, they said, going by spent bullet casings on the street.

Palomar died on the spot, shot in the head. His body was lying on the street when a Reuters team arrived at the scene, his face covered in blood. Escilona was taken to hospital but didn't make it there alive.

No one in the crowd claimed to have witnessed the shooting. Del Rosario said four security cameras on the street could have captured the killing. But none were working.

Duterte suspended the national police from his war on drugs in late January after rogue officers kidnapped and killed a South Korean businessman and handed charge to the Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency (PDEA).

More than half a dozen drug users and dealers in some of Manila's toughest areas told Reuters that the drugs trade had come out in the open after the suspension, although it was not possible to verify their comments.

The "vigilante-style" killings of drug suspects slowed, down to about 400 in February, but it was unclear how many were drugs-related.

On Tuesday, Duterte said he needed more men to fight drugs, and had no choice but to put some police back in the campaign. He said the PDEA would remain in charge of the crackdown, with the support of the police and the military.

However, authorities have not spelled out when police are likely to return to the campaign.

In one of a series of investigative reports last year into the war on drugs, Reuters found that low-level officials in poor neighborhoods helped police assemble "watch lists" of alleged drug users and pushers that were effectively hit-lists, with many of the people named ending up dead.

Authorities strenuously deny that, and dismiss allegations that police are behind thousands of these shadowy killings, either pulling the trigger themselves, or paying hit men to do it.

National police chief Ronald dela Rosa warned on Monday that lawlessness and narcotics were returning to the streets and gains in the drug war would soon be lost unless police were allowed to tackle the problem.

In another part of Manila after midnight on Tuesday, the body of a man was pulled out of a swamp behind a labyrinth of slums in the city's Malabon area.

The victim, Jonathan Lapuz Valles, 28, was shot through the side of the head. Police at the scene declined to give details.

"Still under investigation," said the lead officer.

Funeral home workers hauled his black body bag awkwardly through winding, narrow alleys, repeatedly dropping it and as they stumbled on planks of wood and rocks sunken into the mud.

His girlfriend howled as the body was loaded into a van on a stretcher in front of crowds of onlookers and taken to the funeral parlor before it was laid out on a table. One of the workers at the parlor said the victim was a small-time seller of drugs.

"He had no job. I don't know if he was into drugs," said Valles's younger brother, Julius, his next of kin, who showed no emotion as identified the body.

"I didn't know him so well."

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Couple Gunned Down in Philippines Suspected Victims of President Duterte's War on Drugs - Newsweek

Military involvement in drug war to worsen rights abuseKarapatan – Inquirer.net

Posted on March 2, 2017 by Danzig

A human rights groupon Thursdayclaimed that the involvement of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) in President Rodrigo Dutertes war on drugs will only worsen abuse on human rights.

AFP signed a Memorandum of Agreement (MOA) with the Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency (PDEA)on Tuesday. The said memorandum stated that the military will lead anti-drug operations in conflict-affected areas.

It will worsen the impact on the civil and political rights of poor Filipinos, without addressing the social, economic and political bases of the problem of illegal drugs, Karapatan Secretary General Cristina Palabay said.

With the AFPs notorious record of human rights abuses against civilian communities through counter-insurgency programs like Oplan Kapayapaan and its all-out war campaign, there is no doubt that the AFP will further its militarist policies and approach in suppressing struggling communities using the mantle of the war on drugs, she added.

READ:PNP memo cited as proof kills authorized

The group reiterated that the government should instead uphold social and economic rights of people, instead of curbing peoples civil and political rights.

The provision of secure jobs with living wages, access to social services, and empowerment of the people through organizations, unions, and cooperatives are the most effective deterrents against the use and trade of drugs, Palabay said. ASU/rga

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Military involvement in drug war to worsen rights abuseKarapatan - Inquirer.net

A Catholic church is running an unconventional resistance against Duterte’s war on drugs – Quartz

Posted on March 2, 2017 by Danzig

Reuters

A Catholic church is running an unconventional resistance against Duterte's war on drugs
Quartz
With little else but a camera, Santiago has quietly led an unconventional resistance movement within the Catholic Church against the government's war on drugs, although he would say he's just a man of faith taking photos to help his community. While ...
Philippine president to bring police back into war on drugsReuters
Duterte to call police back to war on drugsInquirer.net
Duterte resumes police's war on drugs in PhilippinesUPI.com
Newsweek -Nasdaq
all 148 news articles »

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A Catholic church is running an unconventional resistance against Duterte's war on drugs - Quartz

Two women busted for illegal gambling operation in north Phoenix … – ABC15 Arizona

Posted on March 2, 2017 by Danzig

PHOENIX - Two women are behind bars in connection to a illegal gambling operation in north Phoenix, police said.

On Jan 1, police began and undercover operation into CJ's Little Bit of Everything, near 35th Avenue and Thunderbird Road.

Problem Gambling Awareness Month – WMDT

Posted on March 2, 2017 by Danzig

Annual Problem Gambling Awareness Month

MARYLAND - Problem Gambling Awareness Month starts today, nationwide.

And Maryland Lottery and Gaming is just one organization doing their part.

47 ABC spoke with Carole Gentry, the director of communications.

Gentry said the state's casinos pay annual assessment fees, which are set aside for "responsible gambling programs".

She said last year, the state collected $3.8 million in fees.

I mean for most people gambling, play at casinos, playing the lottery it's a form of entertainment. But there is a small percentage of people who have a problem with gambling and this is a great way to raise awareness about that, Gentry said.

47 ABC also spoke with Loreen Rugle, the program director at Maryland's Center of Excellence on Program Gambling.

Rugle said that stereotypes about gambling addictions often involve greed.

She adds that this month, the aim is to erase those stereotypes while providing help and resources for those with gambling addictions.

It's your neighbors, your friends, your family. And most people feel so shameful to talk about it. They let it progress until they hit absolute bottom before they reach out and let anybody know, Rugle said.

Both Gentry and Rugle stress that if you, or someone you know, might be struggling with a gambling problem there is a toll free number to call.

1-800-GAMBLER provides confidential, free assistance to connect with local counselors and treatment providers.

Game over for eight Mong Kok gambling dens as police arrest 57, confiscate arcade machines and seize HK$49000 in … – TheStreet.com

Posted on March 2, 2017 by Danzig

Eight triad-controlled gambling dens were closed down in Mong Kok with the arrest of 57 people during a week-long police operation that ended on Wednesday. Police seized HK$49,000 in cash along with 28 arcade game machines from the illegal gambling venues that were operated in residential and commercial units in the district. Mong Kok district operations officer Chief Inspector Dick Ma Wang-ngai said initial investigations showed that the eight gambling dens were controlled by four different gangs. Police nab 21, seize HK$53,000 in cash at Hong Kong game centre converted into a gambling den after midnight "One of the gambling establishments had been in operation for just two days before our raid," he said. To avoid police detection, the gambling dens served regular clients. Security cameras had been installed outside every venue, and entrances had two doors. "During the raids, officers had to break through the doors at most of these venues to gain entry," Ma said. According to police, arcade machines were used for betting games. Gamblers were required to buy cards to record their scores before playing on the machines. Points could be exchanged for cash with the operators taking 10 per cent as commission, Ma said. "Daily revenue was between HK$3,000 and HK$10,000 at each venue," the chief inspector said. Police arrest 40 in raid on Yau Ma Tei gambling den in games arcade Officers arrested 13 people when they raided and closed down two gambling dens at Shanghai Street and Sai Yeung Choi Street South on Wednesday. The other venues were at Nathan Road, Soy Street and Reclamation Street.

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Game over for eight Mong Kok gambling dens as police arrest 57, confiscate arcade machines and seize HK$49000 in ... - TheStreet.com

Seminole Tribe tells Florida leaders their gambling proposals don’t … – Miami Herald

Posted on March 2, 2017 by Danzig

Miami Herald

Seminole Tribe tells Florida leaders their gambling proposals don't ...
Miami Herald
Although the Florida House and Senate are miles apart in how far they are willing to go to protect the Seminole Tribe's exclusive access to gambling in Florida, ...

and more »

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Seminole Tribe tells Florida leaders their gambling proposals don't ... - Miami Herald

Paralysed Italian DJ takes own life in Swiss clinic after fruitless euthanasia campaign in his native country – The Independent

Posted on March 2, 2017 by Danzig

A paralysed DJ ended his own life with the press of a button in Switzerland after a fruitless campaign for euthanasia in his native Italy.

Fabiano Antoniani died at a euthanasia facility in Forch after reportedly triggering the lethal substance.

The 40-year-old had campaigned for a change in the assisted suicide law in his homeland, but Italy's parliament had shelved the debate 11 times.

Former MEP and activist Marco Cappato, who travelled with Mr Antoniani to Switzerland, could face criminal charges after helping escort the musician to the facility.

Police have questioned him over the death, he said onTwitter.

Mr Antoniani was left blind and tetraplegic by car crash in 2014. The DJ dropped his phone while driving and smashed into the car in front of him as he tried to pick it up.

Also known as quadriplegia,Tetraplegia is paralysis caused by illness or injury that results in the partial or total loss of use of all four limbs and torso.

He appealed to Italy President Sergio Mattarella for the right to die, and shortly before his death, criticised the country for failing to pass laws allowing him to do so.

Finally I am in Switzerland and, unfortunately, I got here on my own and not with the help of my country, he said, in a message posted on social media shortly before his death.

Fabo died at 11.40am. He decided to pass away, respecting the rules of a country which is not his own, MrCappatowrote on Twitter, shortly after he died.

Roberto Saviano, an Italian journalist, who was a friend of DJ Fabo, also wrote: We distinctly heard you ask for a dignified death. There is no possible justification for the silence that youve achieved in response.

There is no possible justification for the lack of empathy, of attention, and humanity, from the European Parliament, and from the country, which by fate, you were born in.

In one of Mr Antonianis last Facebook posts, he wrote: F*** the boredom f*** the problems f*** the sickness.

Euthanasia is illegal in Italy, a traditionally Catholic country, but the law upholds a patients right to refuse care.

A bill to clarify assisted suicide law has been postponed in Italy three times, but according to La Stampa, will be debated by the Chamber of Deputies this week.

Hundreds have travelled to Zurich to end their lives since the Dignitas organisation was set up in 1998.

The number of assisted suicides in Switzerland, according to statistics from Dignitas and Exit, stood at 416 in 2011 but 1,004 in 2015.

In the UK, awoman suffering from Crohn's disease last month said she will pay 10,000 to end her life in Switzerland because of social care cuts.

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Paralysed Italian DJ takes own life in Swiss clinic after fruitless euthanasia campaign in his native country - The Independent

Jagged Vision Streaming "Euthanasia" – Metal Underground

Posted on March 2, 2017 by Danzig

Jagged Vision Streaming "Euthanasia"
Metal Underground
Norwegian sludge noisemakers Jagged Vision will release second full-length album Death Is This World on March 10th and just recently unveiled another track from the album titled Euthanasia." Listen in below. The follow-up to 2014's debut album ...

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Jagged Vision Streaming "Euthanasia" - Metal Underground

Families of victims of Colombia’s paramilitaries get their day in US court – The Guardian

Posted on March 2, 2017 by Danzig

The AUC rightwing paramilitaries left victims all over Colombia. Here family members mourn at a funeral in Buga, about 160 miles south-west of Bogot, in 2001. Photograph: Oswaldo Paez/AP

Hernn Giraldo Serna and the men who were under his command in a broad area of northern Colombia murdered more than 270 farmers, indigenous leaders and leftist organizers.

They forcibly disappeared and tortured many of their victims; thousands more fled their homes in fear. Giraldo won the nickname the Drill for the dozens of young girls and women he raped. Twenty-four bore his children.

But when Giraldo faces a federal court in Washington DC on Friday it wont be for any of those crimes. Rather, he will be sentenced for conspiring to import cocaine into the United States when he was a leader of a rightwing paramilitary group through which he lorded over the northern slopes of Colombias Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta.

However, in a precedent-setting twist to the case, the family of Julio Henrquez, who was tortured and murdered by Giraldos henchmen in 2001, will be allowed to address the court about the impact of his crimes.

Fridays hearing marks the first time that Colombias brutal paramilitary leaders who escaped trial for crimes against humanity at home because of drug charges in the United States will face their victims in a US court, according to the Henrquez familys attorneys.

Roxanna Altholz, who represents the Henrquez family, said part of the conspiracy Giraldo has pleaded guilty to was offering armed protection to drug traffickers. And part of that armed protection was Julios murder because he was undermining the drug trade by organizing farmers to replace coca for other crops, she said. Coca is the main ingredient in cocaine.

Nadiezdha Henrquez said that she, her sister Bela and their mother, Zulma, would tell the story of her father Julios murder one more time in the hopes of seeing some sort of justice. He was addressing a meeting with farmers when two masked men burst in, and dragged him into white pickup truck. He was never seen alive again.

We want to make the court understand that there are people whose lives are destroyed by this supposedly victimless crime of drug trafficking, she said in an interview in Bogot before travelling to Washington. We want to influence the judges decision on how long Hernn Giraldo will stay in prison.

They will make a plea for the stiffest sentence possible, which is life in prison, and describe what it would mean for them and the communities of Colombias northern coast, where he once reigned, if he were to return home after a short sentence.

He is a very dangerous figure for the people of that area. If he returns, he will resume his business and the fear we lived with for so many years will return, said Zulma, Henrquezs widow.

Giraldo, 68, is one of 14 former leaders of the United Self Defence Forces of Colombia (AUC) who were extradited to the United States on drug trafficking charges in 2008 just as they began to confess as part of a demobilization deal the human rights crimes they committed in their purported fight against leftist Farc rebels and anyone perceived to be a supporter.

Critics claimed that justice for thousands of murder, rape, torture and disappearance victims was thwarted by the paramilitary leaders extraditions, although most continued to cooperate with Colombian prosecutors investigating the crimes.

Giraldo is the last of those extradited to face sentencing, after he pleaded guilty to one count of conspiracy to traffic cocaine.

Prosecutors are asking for a 20-year sentence, which would be reduced by half through the 10 years he has already served since turning himself in 2006 in Colombia before his extradition the United States in 2008.

In a memorandum seen by the Guardian, Giraldos defence suggests a 12-year sentence, arguing that he was compelled to become involved in the AUC because of patriotism and a sense of duty, honor, and obligation to protect the peasant community against leftist guerrillas.

The drug trafficking, according to Giraldos lawyers, was just a way to make money to maintain the counter-insurgency force.

In 2007, Henrquezs body was found in a clandestine grave. He was missing his jaw and a foot. Two bullets had pierced his skull.

Two years later, after Giraldo had been extradited to the US, a Colombian court convicted him of Henrquezs forced disappearance. He was sentenced in absentia to 37 years in prison and ordered to pay compensation to the family. But the sentence has not been executed because of the charges in the United States and a pending sentence under the special peace process mechanism.

But while Henrquezs family has been unable to get redress in Colombia, they hope to find justice in the US court. And acceptance of Henrquezs widow and daughters as victims in a case of international drug trafficking could open the door to future non-US victims of traffickers to have their say in court as well.

Victims of [the Mexican drug boss Joaqun] Chapo Guzmn or other leaders of cartels or members of security forces or politicians who face drug charges could also face their victims in US court, said Altholz.

Its a new way to look at drug conspiracies, she said. It says those tons of cocaine and ounces of heroin that reach the US are tainted with blood.

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Families of victims of Colombia's paramilitaries get their day in US court - The Guardian

John Klar: Scott plays both sides in marijuana debate – vtdigger.org

Posted on March 2, 2017 by Danzig

Editors note: This commentary is by John Klar, a Vermont grass-fed beef and sheep farmer, and an attorney and pastor who lives in Irasburg.

In a June 22, 2016, VPR interview, Mr. Scott stated of marijuana legalization, We cant afford to make any mistakes here. So Im not saying never. Im saying its the timings not right. Its not now. In the recent Seven Days article, Gov. Scott is quoted as saying I didnt say, Never. I said, Not now. But the travesty of this position is manifest: not only is the governor leaving draconian laws in place which incarcerate citizens for victimless crimes, he is upping the ante by linking decriminalization to driving tests for cannabis.

To raise the false specter of pot-smoking motorists is to echo the Reefer Madness paranoia of a well-discredited past. Gov. Scott is suggesting that decriminalization will cause an increase in the number of stoned motorists on our roads, for which there is no evidence. A similar ignorance imbued the campaign by some to block the distribution of free needles to addicts in the midst of the AIDS epidemic: subsequent studies revealed that free needles did stem the spread of HIV, and did not increase the use of IV drugs.

Why should someone using cannabis brownies to fend off chemotherapy nausea, or battle chronic pain, have to be threatened with prison because someone else might drive stoned and the police dont yet have a test?

Our roads are threatened daily by drunken drivers, for whom we have a test. But if there is an accident, we have tests for cannabis also. But what Mr. Scott knows full well is that we have not established a legal limit for what amount of cannabinoids is dangerous. Without such a discussion, there can be no driving law and thus not now means, essentially never the opposite of what Mr. Scott states.

We must not tolerate such subterfuge. We have a horrific opioid epidemic in Vermont. I am personally seeing more and more people addicted to pharmaceuticals because of routine surgeries, and then transferred to methadone clinics. Does the governor have a routine test for methadone? If not, how can we allow it to be dispensed legally by the state?

There are numerous federal laws that protect people from discrimination if they are under medication-assisted treatment (see, e.g., Rights For Individuals on Medication-Assisted Treatment, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services). There is no legal protection for users of illegal drugs like cannabis just for the profitable drugs that are peddled by pharmaceutical companies and physicians to (supposedly) wean people off illegal narcotics.

So our governor is worse than disingenuous. Perhaps the energy he employs defying federal immigration laws should be invested in standing up forcefully for Vermonters clear and longstanding rights to bear arms, or to defy federal laws which incarcerate Vermonters for smoking pot in their own living rooms. Why should someone using cannabis brownies to fend off chemotherapy nausea, or battle chronic pain, have to be threatened with prison because someone else might drive stoned and the police dont yet have a test?

Vermont has a medical marijuana registry, regardless of the absence of a roadside test. But the relief from state criminalization for medical marijuana use does not protect our citizens from federal law, and our state appears to be providing the names of those on the marijuana registry to the federal government, so that they wont be able to buy guns they are on a federal list. Perhaps our governor will also demand a test to ensure gun owners arent stoned before he legalizes pot, to stigmatize both marijuana use and gun ownership simultaneously. (There is no restriction on alcoholics owning guns.)

The real issue here is whether or not we continue to threaten non-violent cannabis users with incarceration. Our government shields methadone and suboxone addicts from discrimination, while threatening recreational homebound pot smokers with prison or arrest because we dont have a test yet. What are they smoking in the Vermont Legislature? Do we have a test for them to take before enacting new laws, higher taxes, and increased fees? Not now. Maybe later. How do we know we are not under stoned governance?

Breastfeeding bills aim to help children of incarcerated mothers – NMPolitics.net

Posted on March 2, 2017 by Danzig

COMMENTARY: The New Mexico Legislature is considering two bills that would support the babies of incarcerated women. Both bills either save money for the state and counties, or involve minimal costs.

The New Mexico Breastfeeding Task Force and a number of respected pro-social organizations strongly advocate for the passing of both bills as concrete ways to support the physical and social health of mothers and infants in our state.

SB 277: Alternative Sentencing for Pregnant and Lactating Offenders (Ortiz y Pino)

Women offenders are often appropriate for diversion to alternative incarceration programs, as many have been convicted of non-violent or victimless crimes. SB 277 would allow the court to decide to either temporarily release or to place in community custody (eg. house arrest) a pregnant or lactating offender during the most vulnerable months of the fetus/childs life. This would happen only in cases where the women provided no perceived risk to public safety.

Courtesy photo

Lissa Knudsen

Alternative sentencing would allow a mother to access appropriate medical care, simplify visiting, make it more possible for her to attend foster care agency conferences and Family Court proceedings, and ultimately ease the reunification process when she is released. Participating in alternative sentencing might even prevent her children from entering or staying in foster care, depending on her personal circumstances. Once her child reaches 18 months of age, the mother would be expected to finish her sentence.

According to a Journal of Criminal Justice article, the adult children of incarcerated mothers are nearly four times as likely to serve time on probation and nearly three times as likely to be convicted of a crime at some point during their lifetime. By allowing mothers and children to form bonds and be housed together, the consequences of mother incarceration are lessened considerably.

SB 277 saves money, too when inmates with high-risk pregnancies need medical care, the city or county is responsible for the cost. Medicaid cannot pay for services provided while the patient is behind bars, but if they are out on release, Medicaid will pay for the care. Medical care can be costly for high-risk inmate pregnancies, allowing these non-violent women to access medical care outside of corrections reduces overall costs and provides rural counties and cities with significant savings.

The N.M. Association of Counties, the American Congress of Obstetricians & Gynecologists, the N.M. Pediatric Society, New Mexico Academy of Family Physicians, the N.M. Public Health Association, Southwest Womens Law Center, N.M. Association of Social Workers, New Mexico Voices for Children, Womens Agenda, PB&J Family Services, Wings for LIFE International, and the Gordon Bernell Charter School all support this bill.

This bill has made it through two committees and was approved by the senate on a 33-6 vote.

SB 293/HB 277: Lactation Policies for Female Inmates (Padilla/Maestas Barnes)

Of course, release or delayed jail time will not be an appropriate option for some female inmates. Considering the proven health and social benefits of breastfeeding to both the mother and the infant, SB 293 (and its mirror bill HB 277) would allow incarcerated mothers who wish to breastfeed or maintain their milk supply the ability to provide their infants with mothers milk.

This would be accomplished through the support they need to either express milk for delivery to their infant or, in some cases, to breastfeed their infants during daily visits. If the mother expresses her milk, accommodations would be made for freezing, storing and making the milk available for on-site pick up by the childs caregiver.

There are several precedents for this type of accommodation, including the California Department of Corrections & Rehabilitation, the Ohio Prison System, Coffee Creek Correctional Facility in Oregon, Travis County Jail in Texas, and the Washington County Jail in New York. All of these provide lactation support programs for the inmates.

Across the country, correctional facilities have provided four types of breastfeeding support (expressed milk can be frozen and distributed to caregiver on a biweekly basis):

An imprisoned mothers actions should not condemn her children to lose their rights to the benefits of breastmilk and breastfeeding. When children cant access the immunity-building and nutritional benefits of breastmilk (as well as the bonding that breastfeeding promotes) becausetheir mothers are in correctional facilities they, too, are sentenced to the lifelong ramifications of imprisonment.

Babies born to incarcerated mothers are more likely to end up incarcerated themselves. However, we know that babies who are breastfed are better able to bond with their mothers, thus reducing child abuse rates and improving other social outcomes. County jail officers have reported that mother inmates in breastfeeding support programs are motivated and have fewerbehavioral problems than mothers whoare not able to do anything for their off-site child.

The American Congress of Obstetricians & Gynecologists, the N.M. Pediatric Society, New Mexico Academy of Family Physicians, the N.M. Public Health Association, Southwest Womens Law Center, N.M. Association of Social Workers, New Mexico Voices for Children, N.M. Womens Agenda, PB&J Family Services, Wings for LIFE International, and the Gordon Bernell Charter School all support this bill.

This bill has made it through four committees and is scheduled to be heard on both the Senate and House floors this week.

In a tough budget year it is understandable that new programs bring up concerns about costs. However, HB 277/SB 293 and SB 277 have the power to lessen costs through reducing recidivism and reducing health-care costs for mother and child. Alternative sentencing will shift costs from municipalities to Medicaid. The lactation policies bill is flexible, allowing for each correctional facility to design a program that best matches itsresources and needs. For WIC-eligible children of incarcerated mothers, costs can be as minimal as providing storage bags for the milk. The N.M.Corrections Department has stated that even if the bill does not become statute, itenvisions being able to implement a lactation program within itsgiven budget.

Whenever programming is considered for the incarcerated population, safety is a concern. The courts will decide who would be eligible for release (using the criteria of what is in the best interest of public safety). Corrections administrators and medical providers will decide which inmates will be eligible to participate in the lactation support programs. Remember that women offenders are not generally dangerous and mother offenders are even less so. Programs like these provide opportunities for mothers to build self-efficacy and self-esteem, thus improving their outlook and motivation. It also promotes bonding, attachment and reduces child abuse rates.

Although there are safety concerns that may arise regarding the storage and transfer of the expressed milk, breastmilk is food and can be stored like food. Staff will receive training on how to label, store, and deliver expressed milk. These types of procedures are not complicated and are already done in child care facilities, NICUs, and other places that provide expressed human milk to babies.

We know rates of substance abuse are high among women who are incarcerated. The American Academy of Pediatrics, American Congress of Obstetricians & Gynecologists, and Academy of Breastfeeding Medicine all support breastfeeding by women who are enrolled in a supervised methadone (or buprenorphine) maintenance program and have negative screening for HIV infection and illicit drugs. Moreover, breastfeeding has been shown to reduce the symptoms of neonates experiencing neonatal abstinence syndrome as a result of in utero opioid exposure. This is, in fact, the best possible treatment. Medical providers test mothers both at birth (current standard of practice) and throughout the lactation period. This ensures that mother is not using illicit substances while lactating and that breastfeeding continues to be medically recommended.

Human milk should be the standard of nutrition care for babies born to mothers who are incarcerated. SB 277 saves the state both in incarceration costs and in labor and delivery costs. Both bills promote breastfeeding and thus decrease incidences of life-threatening infections and lengthy of hospital stays, improve mother and child bonding, and reduce child abuse rates and health care costs. Ultimately both of these bills help New Mexican babies have the best possible start to their lives regardless of their mothers crimes.

Lissa Knudsen, New Mexico Breastfeeding Task Forcechair, is a PhD Student in the Communication and Journalism Department (focusing on health communication) at the University of New Mexico, and she lives in downtown Albuquerque with her 12-year-old daughter.

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Breastfeeding bills aim to help children of incarcerated mothers - NMPolitics.net

Engineering’s Golden Rule – Sourceable

Posted on March 2, 2017 by Danzig

As a result, the Golden Rule permeates Australian society, in our courts and parliaments, and our laws and judgments. It is an integral and inalienable part of our social infrastructure.

Cambridge professor David Howarths recent book, Law as Engineering: Thinking About What Lawyers Do, considers some of the implications of this. Howarths thesis is that most UK lawyers do not argue in court. Rather, on behalf of their clients, they design and implement, through contracts, laws, deeds, wills, treaties and so forth, small changes to the prevailing social infrastructure.

Australian law practice seems to follow a similar pattern, and this is a good and useful thing; without these ongoing small changes to social infrastructure there would be large scale confusion, massive imposition on the court system, and general, often escalating, grumpiness.

Engineering serves a similar function. Engineers, on behalf of their clients, design structures and systems that change the material infrastructure of society.

This is also a good and useful thing. And, with the history of and potential for significant safety impacts resulting from these physical changes, engineers have over time developed formal design methods to ensure safe outcomes.

These methods consider not only the design at hand, but also the wider physical context into which the design will fit. This includes multi-discipline design processes, integrating civil, electrical, mechanical, chemical (and so on) engineering. It also includes consideration of what already exists, and the interfaces that will arise. Road developments will consider their impact on the wider network, as well as nearby rail lines, bike paths, amenities, businesses, residences, utilities, the environment, and so on.

Howarths book considers this approach to design in the framework of changing social infrastructure. He argues that lawyers, in changing the social infrastructure, ought to consider how these changes may interact with the wider social context to avoid unintended consequences. As an example, he examines the 2009 global financial crisis in which, he argues, many small changes to the social infrastructure resulted in catastrophic negative global impacts.

Following formal design processes could have, if not prevented this situation occurring, perhaps at least provided some insight into the potential for its development. But the question arises: how should negative impacts on social infrastructure be identified? In contrast to engineering changes to material infrastructure, social infrastructure changes tend not to have immediate or obvious environmental or health and safety impacts.

One option that presents itself is also apparent in good engineering design. Engineers follow the Golden Rule. It is completely embedded in engineering practice, and is supported and reinforced by legislation and judgements. Engineers design to avoid damaging people in a physical sense. Subsequent considerations include environmental harm, economic harm, and so on.

A key aspect of this is consideration of who may be affected by infrastructure changes. Proximity is critical here, as well as any voluntary assumption of risk. That is, potential impacts should be considered for all those who may be negatively affected, and who have not elected to put themselves in that position. This is particularly important when others (such as an engineers or lawyers client) prosper because of such developments.

A recent example involving material infrastructure is the Lacrosse tower fire in Melbourne. In this case, a cigarette on a balcony ignited the buildings cladding, with the fire spreading to cladding on 11 floors in a matter of minutes. The cladding was subsequently found to not meet relevant standards, and to be cheaper than compliant cladding.

In this case, it appears a design decision was made to use the substandard cladding, presumably with the lower cost as a factor. Although it is certain that the resulting fire scenario was not anticipated as part of this decision, the question remains as to how the use of substandard materials was justified, given the increased safety risk to residents. One wonders if the developers would have made the same choice if they were building accommodation for themselves.

In a social infrastructure context, an analogy may be that of sub-prime mortgages being packaged and securitized in the United States, allowing lenders to process home loans without concern for their likelihood of repayment. In this scenario, more consideration perhaps ought to have been given by the lawyers (and their clients) drafting these contracts as to, firstly, how they would interact with the wider context, and, secondly, whether the financial risks presented to the wider community as a result were appropriate. In many respects the potential profits are irrelevant, as they are not shared by those bearing the majority of the risk.

The complexities here are manifest. Commercial confidentiality will certainly play a role. No single rule could serve to guide choices when changing social or material infrastructure, and unforeseen, unintended consequences will always arise. But, when considering the ramifications of a decision, a good start might be: how would I feel if this happened to me?

Read the original here:

Engineering's Golden Rule - Sourceable

Economics and Politics by Paul Krugman – The Conscience of …

Posted on March 2, 2017 by Danzig

Coal Is A State Of Mind

The big news from last nights speech is that our pundits is not learning. After all the debacles of 2016, they swooned over the fact that Trump while still lying time after time and proposing truly vile initiatives was able to read from a teleprompter without breaking into an insane rant. If American democracy falls, supposed political analysts who are actually just bad theater critics will share part of the blame.

But that aside, I was struck by Trumps continued insistence that hes going to bring back coal jobs. This says something remarkable both about him and about the body politic.

He is not, of course, going to bring back coal mining as an occupation. Coal employments plunge began decades ago, driven mainly by the switch to strip mining and mountaintop removal. A partial revival after the oil crises of the 70s was followed by a renewed downturn (under Reagan!), with fracking and cheap gas mainly delivering the final blow. Giving coal companies new freedom to pollute streams and utilities freedom to destroy the planet wont make any noticeable dent in the trend.

But heres the question: why are people so fixated on coal jobs anyway?

Even in the heart of coal country, the industry hasnt really been a major source of employment for a very long time. Compare mining with occupations that basically are some form of healthcare in West Virginia, as percentages of total employment:

Even in West Virginia, the typical worker is basically a nurse, not a miner and that has been true for decades.

So why did that state overwhelmingly support a candidate who wont bring back any significant number of mining jobs, but quite possibly will destroy healthcare for many which means jobs lost as well as lives destroyed?

The answer, Id guess, is that coal isnt really about coal its a symbol of a social order that is no more; both good things (community) and bad (overt racism). Trump is selling the fantasy that this old order can be restored, with seemingly substantive promises about specific jobs mostly just packaging.

One thought that follows is that Trump may not be as badly hurt by the failure of his promises as one might expect: he cant deliver coal jobs, but he can deliver punishment to various kinds of others. I guess well see.

For obvious reasons. Evidently the McCartney empire has been scrubbing almost all online versions; hope this lasts long enough for people to enjoy

Update: Searle, not Seattle. Damn spellcheck (or maybe the AI was making a Microsoft joke?)

Izabella Kaminska has a thought-provoking piece on the real effects of technology on wages, in which she argues that much recent innovation, instead of displacing manual workers, has displaced high-paying skilled jobs. As it happens, I sort of predicted this 20 years ago, in a piece written for the Times magazines 100th anniversary (authors were asked to write as if it was 2096, and they were looking back.)

I argued then that menial work dealing with the physical world gardeners, maids, nurses would survive even as quite a few jobs that used to require college disappeared. As it turns out, big data has led to more progress in something that looks like artificial intelligence than I expected self-driving cars are much closer to reality than I would have thought, and maybe gardening robots and post-Roomba robot cleaners will follow. Still, the point about the relative displacement of cognitive versus manual jobs seems to stand.

An aside: given the way Google Translate and such work, Seattles Searles Chinese Room Argument doesnt look as foolish as I used to think it was.

Anyway, Kaminskas point about the disruptiveness of such technological change is something we should take seriously. After all, it has happened before. The initial effect of the Industrial Revolution was a substantial de-skilling of goods production. The Luddites were, for the most part, not proletarians but skilled craftsmen, weavers who constituted s sort of labor aristocracy but found their skills devalued by the power loom. In the long run industrialization did lead to higher wages for everyone, but the long run took several generations to happen in that long run we really were all dead.

So interesting stuff. Id note, however, that it remains peculiar how were simultaneously worrying that robots will take all our jobs and bemoaning the stalling out of productivity growth. What is the story, really?

The WSJ reports that the Trump administrations budget planning assumes very high economic growth over the next decade between 3 and 3.5 percent annually. How was this number arrived at? Basically, they worked backwards, assuming the growth they needed to make their budget numbers add up. Credibility!

But the purpose of this post is mainly to explain why such a number is implausible not impossible, but not something that should be anyones central forecast.

The claimed returns to Trumpnomics are close to the highest growth rates weve seen under any modern administration. Real GDP grew 3.4 percent annually under Reagan; it grew 3.7 percent annually under Clinton (shhh dont tell conservatives.) But there are fundamental reasons to believe that such growth is unlikely to happen now.

First, demography: Reagan took office with baby boomers and women still entering the work force; these days baby boomers are leaving. Heres UN data on the 5-year growth rate of the population aged 20-64, a rough proxy for those likely to seek work:

Just on demography alone, then, youd expect growth to be around a percentage point lower than it was under Reagan.

Furthermore, while Trump did not, in fact, inherit a mess, both Reagan and Clinton did in the narrow sense that both came into office amid depressed economies, with unemployment above 7 percent:

This meant a substantial amount of slack to be taken up when the economy returned to full employment. Rough calculation: 2 points of excess unemployment means 4 percent output gap under Okuns Law, which means 0.5 percentage points of extra growth over an 8-year period.

So even if you (wrongly) give Reagan policies credit for the business cycle recovery after 1982, and believe (wrongly) that Trumponomics is going to do wonderful things for incentives a la Reagan, you should still be expecting growth of 2 percent or under.

Now, maybe something awesome will happen: either driverless or flying cars will transform everything, whatever. But you shouldnt be counting on it.

Everyone knows that stocks and interest rates have soared since the election; at the same time, if you arent worried about erratic policies from the Tweeter-in-chief, youre really not paying attention. So are markets getting it all wrong?

Ive been wondering about that and yes, in the first few hours after the election I thought, briefly and wrongly, that a crash was coming quickly. But anyway, I decided to crunch a few numbers and surprised myself. I still think markets are underrating the risk of catastrophe. But Im not as sure as I was that theres a huge Trump bubble buoying markets because when you actually look at the data, the market action has been much smaller than the hype.

Look first at stocks. Yes, theyre up since the election. But how does this rise compare with past fluctuations? Not very big, actually:

What about real interest rates? Ive been arguing that the widespread belief in serious fiscal stimulus is wrong, which means that a really big rise in real interest rates wouldnt be warranted. But it turns out that the movement isnt that big:

There was an overshoot early one, but at this point its only about 30 basis points, consistent with fiscal stimulus of maybe 1 percent of GDP. Still high, I think, but not yuge.

Inflation expectations are also up, but that may reflect various non-Trump things like growing evidence that we really are close to full employment.

I still think that markets are too sanguine. But the truth is that they havent moved nearly as much as the hype suggests, so the case for either a huge Trump effect or a huge Trump bubble is a lot weaker than you might think.

What Trump has done or tried to do over the past two years wait, its really only been two weeks? is incredibly bad. But spare a bit of attention to what doesnt seem to be happening. Has anyone heard anything, anything at all, about domestic policy development?

Remember, after the election Wall Street decided that we were going to see a big push on infrastructure, tax cuts, etc.. Some analysts were warning that progressives should be ready for the possibility that Trump would engage in reactionary Keynesianism. Worrying parallels were drawn between Trumpism and autobahn construction under you-know-who.

But if theres a WH task force preparing an infrastructure plan, its very well hidden; maybe theyre waiting to figure out how to turn on the lights. Seriously, Ive been saying for a while that there will be no significant public construction plan. Wall Street economists, at least, are starting to catch on.

Meanwhile, that Obamacare replacement is still nowhere to be seen, with GOP Congresspeople literally running away when asked about it.

Big tax cuts and savage cuts to social programs are still very much on the Congressional Republican agenda, and they could put it all together, hand it to Bannon, and have Trump sign it without reading. But Im starting to wonder: surely they planned to unveil things during the Trump honeymoon, with the public prepared to believe that it was all done with the little guys interests in mind. Even pre 9-11 Bush could count on media goodwill and supine Democrats to ram through his tax cuts.

But now? With massive public distrust, and media fully willing to do real reporting on the distribution of tax cuts, not Democrats say that the rich are the big winners? With the media infatuation on Serious, Honest Paul Ryan at least temporarily dented by his avid support for Muslim bans and all that? Maybe theyll do it anyway, but it seems a lot less certain than it did in November.

At this point Im starting to wonder whether there will be any real movement on economic policy, as opposed to random insults aimed at allies.

Its odd that the markets are, so far, not reflecting any of this; theyre basically unchanged from the levels they reached after the initial Trump Boom euphoria. But surely the odds have shifted, and theres now a real possibility that on domestic policy, at least, were in for a period of sound, fury, and tweets signifying nothing.

Cant imagine what made me think of this.

Peter Navarro, the closest thing Trump has to an economic guru, made some waves by accusing Germany of being a currency manipulator and suggesting that both the shadow Deutsche mark and the euro are undervalued. Leaving aside the dubious notion that this is a good target of US economic diplomacy, is he right?

Yes and no. Unfortunately, the no part is whats relevant to the US.

Yes, Germany in effect has an undervalued currency relative to what it would have without the euro. The figure shows German prices (GDP deflator) relative to Spain (which I take to represent Southern Europe in general) since the euro was created. There was a large real depreciation during the euros good years, when Spain had massive capital inflows and an inflationary boom. This has only been partly reversed, despite an incredible depression in Spain. Why? Because wages are downward sticky, and Germany has refused to support the kind of monetary and fiscal stimulus that would raise overall euro area inflation, which remains stuck at far too low a level.

So the euro system has kept Germany undervalued, on a sustained basis, against its neighbors.

But does this mean that the euro as a whole is undervalued against the dollar? Probably not. The euro is weak because investors see poor investment opportunities in Europe, to an important extent because of bad demography, and better opportunities in the U.S.. The travails of the euro system may add to poor European perceptions. But theres no clear relationship between the problems of Germanys role within the euro and questions of the relationship between the euro and other currencies.

And may I say, what is the purpose of having someone connected to the U.S. government say this? Are we going to pressure the ECB to adopt tighter monetary policy? I sure hope not. Are we egging on a breakup of the euro? It sure sounds like it but that is not, not, something the US government should be doing. What would we say if Chinese officials seemed to be talking up a US financial crisis? (It would, of course, be OK with Trump if the Russians did it.)

So yes, Navarro has a point about Germanys role within the euro. And if he were unconnected with the Bannon administration, he would be free to make it. But in the current context, this is grossly irresponsible.

Ive noted in the past that I get the most vitriolic attacks, not when I denounce politicians as evil or corrupt, but when I use more or less standard economics to debunk favorite fallacies. Sure enough, lots of anger over the trade analysis in todays column, assertions that its all left-wing bias, etc..

So maybe its worth noting that Greg Mankiws take on the economics of DBCFT is basically identical to mine: subsidy or tax cut on employment of domestic factors of production, paid for by sales tax. Greg and I disagree on whether replacing profits taxes with sales taxes is a good idea, but agree that all of this has nothing to do with trade and international competition because it doesnt.

I suspect, however, that Greg is being nave here in assuming that were just seeing confusion because border tax adjustment sounds as if it must involve competitive games. Theres some of that, for sure, but one reason the competitiveness thing wont go away is that its an essential part of the political pitch. Lets eliminate taxes on profits and tax consumers instead is a hard sell, even if you want to claim that the incidence isnt what it looks like. Claiming that its about eliminating a dire competitive disadvantage plays much better, even though its all wrong.

To be fair, these tax-and-trade issues are kind of two-ibuprofen stuff at best. But confusions persists even longer than usual when they serve a political purpose.

Cardiff Garcia has a nice piece trying to figure out what might happen to the economy under Trump, taking off from the classic Dornbusch-Edwards analysis of macroeconomic populism in Latin America. Garcia notes that surging government spending and mandated wage hikes tend to produce a temporary sugar high, followed by a crash. Nice idea but I suspect highly misleading, because Trump isnt a real populist, he just plays one on reality TV.

The Dornbusch-Edwards essay focused on the examples of Allendes Chile and Garcias Peru; an update would presumably look at Argentina, Venezuela, and others. But how relevant are these examples to Trumps America?

Allende, for example, was a real populist, who seriously tried to push up wages and drastically increased spending. Heres Chilean government consumption spending as a share of GDP:

Thats huge; in the U.S. context it would mean boosting spending by almost $1 trillion each year.

Is Trump on course to do anything similar? Hes selected a cabinet of plutocrats, with a labor secretary bitterly opposed to minimum wage hikes. He talks about infrastructure, but the only thing that passes for a plan is a document proposing some tax credits for private investors, which wouldnt involve much public outlay even if they did lead to new investment (as opposed to giveaways for investment that would have taken place anyway.) He does seem set to blow up the deficit, but via tax cuts for the wealthy; benefits for the poor and middle class seem set for savage cuts.

Why, then, does anyone consider him a populist? Its basically all about affect, about coming across as someone wholl stand up to snooty liberal elitists (and of course validate salt-of-the-earth, working-class racism.) Maybe some protectionism; but theres no hint that his economic program will look anything like populism abroad.

In which case, why would we even get the sugar high of populisms past? A tax-cut-driven boom is possible, I guess. But there wont be much stimulus on the spending side.

Not the usual concert joint with the NOW Ensemble, with Elliss (the songwriters) classical-trained roots very much on display. But still a great experience; their sound is like nobody elses, and theres really nothing like live performance. And the new album, which Ive been listening to (blogging has its privileges) is great. Shot on my smartphone!

Trump tantrums aside, you may be finding the whole border tax adjustment discussion confusing. If so, youre not alone; Ive worked in this area my whole life, I co-wrote a widely cited paper (with Martin Feldstein) on why a VAT isnt an export subsidy, and I have still had a hard time wrapping my mind around the Destination-Based Cash Flow Tax border adjustment that sort-of-kind-of constituted the basis for the Mexico incident.

But I have what I think may be a (relatively) easy way to think about it, which starts with the competitive effects of a VAT, then analyzes the DBCFT as a change from a VAT.

So, first things first: a VAT does not give a nation any kind of competitive advantage, period.

Think about two firms, one domestic and one foreign, selling into two markets, domestic and foreign. Ask how the VAT affects competition in each market.

In the domestic market, imports pay the border adjustment; but domestic firms pay the VAT, so the playing field is still level.

In the foreign market, domestic firms dont pay the VAT, but neither do foreign firms. Again, the playing field is still level.

So a VAT is just a sales tax, with no competitive impact.

But a DBCFT isnt quite the same as a VAT.

With a VAT, a firm pays tax on the value of its sales, minus the cost of intermediate inputs the goods it buys from other companies. With a DBCFT, firms similarly get to deduct the cost of intermediate inputs. But they also get to deduct the cost of factors of production, mostly labor but also land.

So one way to think of a DBCFT is as a VAT combined with a subsidy for employment of domestic factors of production. The VAT part has no competitive effect, but the subsidy part would lead to expanded domestic production if wages and exchange rates didnt change.

But of course wages and/or the exchange rate would, in fact, change. If the US went to a DBCFT, we should expect the dollar to rise by enough to wipe out any competitive advantage. After the currency adjustment, the trade effect should once again be nil. But there might be a lot of short-to-medium term financial consequences from a stronger dollar.

I think this is right, and I hope it clarifies matters. Oh, and no, none of this helps pay for the wall.

Its hard to focus on ordinary economic analysis amidst this political apocalypse. But getting and spending will still consume most of peoples energy and time; furthermore, like it or not the progress of CASE NIGHTMARE ORANGE may depend on how the economy does. So, what is actually likely to happen to trade and manufacturing over the next few years?

As it happens, we have what looks like an unusually good model in the Reagan years minus the severe recession and conveniently timed recovery, which somewhat overshadowed the trade story. Leave aside the Volcker recession and recovery, and what you had was a large move toward budget deficits via tax cuts and military buildup, coupled with quite a lot of protectionism its not part of the Reagan legend, but the import quota on Japanese automobiles was one of the biggest protectionist moves of the postwar era.

Im a bit uncertain about the actual fiscal stance of Trumponomics: deficits will surely blow up, but I wont believe in the infrastructure push until I see it, and given savage cuts in aid to the poor its not entirely clear that there will be net stimulus. But suppose there is. Then what?

Well, what happened in the Reagan years was twin deficits: the budget deficit pushed up interest rates, which caused a strong dollar, which caused a bigger trade deficit, mainly in manufactured goods (which are still most of whats tradable.) This led to an accelerated decline in the industrial orientation of the U.S. economy:

And people did notice. Using Google Ngram, we can watch the spread of terms for industrial decline, e.g. here:

And here:

Again, this happened despite substantial protectionism.

So Trumpism will probably follow a similar course; it will actually shrink manufacturing despite the big noise made about saving a few hundred jobs here and there.

On the other hand, by then the BLS may be thoroughly politicized, commanded to report good news whatever happens.

Trumps inaugural speech was, of course, full of lies pretty much the same lies that marked the campaign. Above all, there was the portrayal of a dystopia of social and economic collapse that bears little relationship to American reality. During the campaign Trump got away with this in part because of slovenly, craven media, but also because of persistent misperceptions. The public consistently believes that crime is rising even when it has been falling to historical lows; it believes that the number of uninsured has risen when it has also fallen to historic lows; Republicans believe that unemployment is up and, incredibly, the stock market down under Obama.

The interesting question now is whether fake carnage can be replaced by fake non-carnage. How many people can be convinced that things are getting better under the Trump-Putin administration even as they actually get worse?

Will they actually get worse? Almost surely. Unemployment will probably rise over the next four years, if only because it starts out low historically the unemployment rate has a strong reversion to the mean, and it probably cant go much lower than it is now but can go much higher. The number of uninsured will soar if Republicans repeal Obamacare, whatever alleged replacement they offer.

Crime is less clear, since we really dont know why it fell. But big further declines dont seem highly likely; certainly we wont see an end to the prevalence of urban war zones, because, you know, they dont exist in the first place.

Oh, and this team of cronies is unlikely to help raise real wages.

But can Trump voters be convinced that things are getting better when they arent? The truth is that I dont know. Views on many issues are driven by motivated reasoning, and when people say that things got worse under Obama, what they may really be saying whatever the actual question was is I hate the idea of a black man in the White House.

Still, I suspect that claiming vast job creation when people are actually finding it harder to get work and losing insurance wont work as well as the claims of carnage did. I guess well just have to see which may be hard if, as I fear, the statistical agencies are a prime target of the new regime.

Another week of complete chaos on the health reform front. Dear Leader declares that hell give everyone coverage; Republicans explain that he didnt mean that literally. CBO says the obvious, that repealing the ACA would lead to immense hardship for tens of millions; Republicans declare that this is wrong, because they will come up with an alternative any day now you know, the one theyve been promising for 7 years.

Ive written about all of this many, many, many times. The logic of Obamacare the reason anything aiming to cover a large fraction of the previously uninsured must either be single-payer or something very like the ACA is the clearest thing Ive seen in decades of policy discussion. But I dont know if Ive ever written out the fundamental principles that lie behind all of this.

So here we go: providing health care to those previously denied it is, necessarily, a matter of redistributing from the lucky to the unlucky. And, of course, reversing a policy that expanded health care is redistribution in reverse. You cant make this reality go away.

Left to its own devices, a market economy wont care for the sick unless they can pay for it; insurance can help up to a point, but insurance companies have no interest in covering people they suspect will get sick. So unfettered markets mean that health care goes only to those who are wealthy and/or healthy enough that they wont need it often, and hence can get insurance.

If thats a state of affairs youre comfortable with, so be it. But the public doesnt share your sentiments. Health care is an issue on which most people are natural Rawlsians: they can easily imagine themselves in the position of those who, through no fault of their own, experience expensive medical problems, and feel that society should protect people like themselves from such straits.

The thing is, however, that guaranteeing health care comes with a cost. You can tell insurance companies that they cant discriminate based on medical history, but that means higher premiums for the healthy and you also create an incentive to stay uninsured until or unless you get sick, which pushes premiums even higher. So you have to regulate individuals as well as insurers, requiring that everyone sign up the mandate, And since some people wont be able to obey such a mandate, you need subsidies, which must be paid for out of taxes.

Before the passage and implementation of the ACA, Republicans could wave all this away by claiming that health reform could never work. And even now theyre busy telling lies about its collapse. But none of this will conceal mass loss of health care in the wake of Obamacare repeal, with some of their most loyal voters among the biggest losers.

What theyre left with is a health economics version of voodoo: theyll invoke the magic of the market to somehow provide insurance so cheap that everyone will be able to afford it whatever their income and medical status. This is obvious nonsense; I think even Paul Ryan knows that hes lying like a rug. But its all theyve got.

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Economics and Politics by Paul Krugman - The Conscience of ...

Endorsements for the Liberal Party of Canada leadership …

Posted on March 2, 2017 by Danzig

Person or organization Notes Reference Allan Armsworthy* President, Central Nova Riding Association, Nova Scotia [citation needed] Gail Asper Director and Corporate Secretary of CanWest Global [1] Scott Brison* Member of Parliament for KingsHants [2] Dianne Brushett* President, Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Riding Association, Nova Scotia [citation needed] Ryan Buffalo Vice-President (Youth), Alberta Aboriginal Peoples Commission [citation needed] T.J. Burke Member of the Legislative Assembly, New Brunswick [citation needed] Mike Burton* President, Regina QuAppelle Riding Association, Saskatchewan [citation needed] George Cameron Past Provincial Liberal Candidate, Saskatchewan [citation needed] Hilary Casey* President of the New Brunswick Young Liberals [citation needed] Jim Cowan* Senator for Nova Scotia [3] Jane Cordy* Senator for Nova Scotia [4] Joseph A. Day* Senator for New Brunswick [5] Richard Diamond* President of the Young Liberals of Canada [6] Autumn EagleSpeaker* President, Alberta, Aboriginal People's Commission [7] Chris Emanuel Central Region President, Liberal Party of Canada (Ontario) [citation needed] Mark Eyking* Member of Parliament for SydneyVictoria [8] Bill Fleming* Past Candidate, Sackville Eastern Shore, Nova Scotia [citation needed] Ryan Francis* President, Nova Scotia Aboriginal Peoples Commission [citation needed] Josh Fraser* Vice-President (Youth) Aboriginal People's Commission [9] George Furey* Senator for Newfoundland [citation needed] Joe Gillis* President, SydneyVictoria Riding Association, Nova Scotia [citation needed] John Gillis Vice-President, Nova Scotia Liberal Party [citation needed] Darian Huskilson* 2006 Election Candidate for South ShoreSt. Margaret's, Nova Scotia [citation needed] Jim Kane* President, Edmonton Centre Riding Association, Alberta [citation needed] Michael Kirby* Senator for Nova Scotia [10] Mike MacKenzie* President, KingsHants Riding Association, Nova Scotia [citation needed] Martin MacKinnon* 2006 Election Candidate for Halifax, Nova Scotia [citation needed] Frank McKenna* Former Premier of New Brunswick [citation needed] Wilfred Moore* Senator for Nova Scotia [11] Shawn Murphy* Member of Parliament for Charlottetown [12] Rey Pagtakhan* Former Minister under Jean Chrtien, and Paul Martin, Former Member of Parliament for Winnipeg North and Winnipeg NorthSt. Paul [13] Eric Peterson* President, Toronto Centre Riding Association, Ontario [citation needed] Gerard Phalen* Senator for Nova Scotia [14] Gary Richard* 2006 Election Candidate for Cumberland Colchester, Nova Scotia [citation needed] Charlie Rutt* President, Sackville Eastern Shore Riding Association, Nova Scotia [citation needed] Michael Savage* Member of Parliament for DartmouthCole Harbour [15] Carolyn Scott Vice-President (Federal) Nova Scotia Liberal Party [citation needed] Jane Spurr* President, Halifax Riding Association, Nova Scotia [citation needed] Pat Thomas* President, EdmontonLeduc Riding Association, Alberta [citation needed] Danny Walsh* 2006 Election Candidate for Central Nova, Nova Scotia [citation needed] Derek Wells* President, Nova Scotia Liberal Party [citation needed] Cindy Woodhouse* Vice-President (Communications) Aboriginal People's Commission [16] Person or organization Notes Reference Warren Allmand* Former Solicitor General of Canada under Pierre Elliott Trudeau and Member of Parliament for Notre-Dame-de-Grce, Quebec [17] Eleni Bakopanos* Former Member of Parliament for Ahuntsic, Quebec [18] Tommy Banks* Senator from Alberta [citation needed] Sue Barnes* Member of Parliament for London West, Ontario [19] Tudor Beattie* President of the Calgary Centre Riding, Alberta [20] Doug Beaton Former Executive Director of the Liberal Party of Canada in British Columbia [21] Andre Beaumier* President of the RichmondArthabaska Riding, Quebec [22] Colleen Beaumier* Member of Parliament for Brampton West, Ontario [23] Cecil Bechamp* President of the Brampton West Riding, Ontario [citation needed] Bruce Benson* 2006 Election Candidate for SelkirkInterlake, Manitoba [24] Edgar Benson* Former Member of Parliament for Kingston, Ontario, Treasury Board Minister under Lester Pearson and Finance Minister under Pierre Elliott Trudeau [citation needed] David Berger Former Member of Parliament for Laurier Montreal-area riding, former Canadian Ambassador to Israel [25] Grard Binet Former Member of Parliament for FrontenacMgantic, Quebec [citation needed] Jean-Jacques Blais* Former Minister in the Pierre Trudeau and John Turner governments. Former Member of Parliament for Nipissing,Ontario [26] Don Boudria* Former Member of Parliament for GlengarryPrescottRussell, Ontario [27] Claudette Bradshaw* Former Member of Parliament for MonctonRiverviewDieppe, New Brunswick, former Minister [28] Stephen R. Bronfman Montreal businessman, Chairman, Claridge Inc. [29] Bonnie Brown* Member of Parliament for Oakville, Ontario [30] Richard Brown* Member of the Legislative Assembly, Charlottetown-Kings Square, Prince Edward Island [31] Denise Brunsdon Former National Director of the Young Liberals of Canada [32] John G. Bryden* Senator for New Brunswick [33] Rod Bryden Former owner of the Ottawa Senators [34] Jhim Burwell* 2006 Election Candidate for KootenayColumbia, British Columbia [35] Adam Campbell* President of the Liberal Party of Canada (Alberta) [36][permanent dead link] Richard Cashin* Former Newfoundland Member of Parliament for St. John's West and Former President of the Newfoundland Fish, Food and Allied Workers Union [37] Bill Caton* 2006 Election Candidate for Cypress Hills, Saskatchewan [citation needed] Kevin Chalmers* Liberal Organizer in British Columbia, and organizer for David Emerson's election campaign in Vancouver Kingsway, as well as the De-Elect Emerson campaign after Emerson's defection to the Tories. Maria Chaput* Senator for Manitoba [38] Michel Chartand Former Chair of the Liberal Party's Standing Committee on Communications & Publicity, and former President of the Young Liberals of Canada [39] Jason Cherniak* Liblogs founder, President of Richmond Hill Liberal riding association, York Region Director for LPC(O)

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Endorsements for the Liberal Party of Canada leadership ...

New Political Terrain for a Liberal Discipline – Inside Higher Ed

Posted on March 2, 2017 by Danzig

New Political Terrain for a Liberal Discipline
Inside Higher Ed
That's also true of populations whom the mostly liberal-minded anthropological profession may not initially empathize with, he said. Gusterson studies the people who make up the American security state -- members of the intelligence community ...

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New Political Terrain for a Liberal Discipline - Inside Higher Ed

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