The battle for control of Libya is about to enter a new and potentially disastrous phase if Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish President, is given the go-ahead to proceed with his plan to deploy forces to Tripoli.
The long-running Libyan civil war, which has been raging since the overthrow of its dictator Col Muammar Qaddafi in 2011, is approaching a decisive phase, with forces led by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar closing in on the capital.
Widely regarded as the leader who has the ability to restore order to this war-ravaged country, Field Marshal Haftar, who enjoys the backing of countries including Egypt and Russia, recently announced that his forces had launched their final battle for control of Tripoli.
The aim of the 76-year-old rebel commander is to remove the Government of National Accord, led by prime minister Fayez Al Sarraj and backed by the UN, and bring to an end its chaotic attempts to restore order to the country.
But the prospects of the long-running Libyan conflict being resolved any time in the near future could be seriously compromised if, as now seems likely, Mr Erdogan presses ahead with his proposal to send Turkish forces to Tripoli in support of the GNA. A bill has now been sent to the Turkish Parliament seeking approval for the deployment which, if granted, could see forces from the country arriving in Tripoli within the next few days.
Such a development would undoubtedly complicate efforts to resolve the dispute and might even result in an escalation of hostilities as Mr Erdogan, who increasingly sees himself as a major powerbroker in the Mediterranean, seeks to consolidate his influence over a key North African state.
Although the GNA is officially acting under the auspices of the UN, its abject failure to bring any sense of stability and security to the country has meant that it has very few international backers.
One of the main reasons the GNA has failed so miserably to assert its authority is because of the malign influence of groups, many of which have ties to the Muslim Brotherhood.
Those with influence include Abdelhakim Belhaj, leader of the conservative Al Watan Party and former head of Tripoli Military Council. He was head of the defunct Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, a group that previously campaigned for Qaddafi's overthrow and has been linked to the Manchester Arena terrorist attack in May 2017 that killed 23 people during a concert given by the American singer Ariana Grande.
Belhaj was named on the list of terrorists drawn up by Saudi Arabia at the start of the diplomatic dispute with Qatar in 2017.
Its association with known militants is one of the main factors for the GNA's failure to win international backing. To date the only countries actively supporting the GNA are Qatar, Turkey and Italy which, alone among the European nations, believes the body is the best means of protecting its extensive oil and gas interests in the North African state.
Mr Erdogans proposal to send troops in support of the GNA will, therefore, be seen as a desperate throw of the dice designed to save the Tripoli-based organisation from suffering certain defeat at the hands of Field Marshal Haftar.
Mr Erdogans move also needs to be seen in the context of Ankaras wider policy of seeking to expand its influence in the eastern Mediterranean and North Africa after the recent discovery of large undersea gasfields.
Turkey is concerned that it might end up being isolated if the four main beneficiaries of the gas discovery Egypt, Israel, Cyprus and Greece are able to establish a co-operation mechanism to protect their energy assets in the region.
To this end, Ankara struck a deal with the GNA in November to create a strategic corridor that runs from Dalaman on Turkeys south-west coast and Derna on Libyas north-east coast.
The fact that the GNA does not even control the stretch of coast referred to in the deal, and that Field Marshal Haftar has refused to acknowledge the agreement, has not stopped Mr Erdogan from hailing the deal as a significant achievement in Ankaras attempts to protect its interests in the Mediterranean.
The deal has already provoked strong protests from Greece and Cyprus, which have a long history of territorial disputes with Turkey and claim the accord is void and violates the international law of the sea, while Egypt has called it illegal and not binding". During a December 12 summit, leaders of the EU issued a statement unequivocally siding with member states Greece and Cyprus.
Hence, Mr Erdogans plans to increase Ankaras ties with the GNA by sending forces to defend its interests not only risk causing a major escalation in the Libyan conflict, but could exacerbate tensions between Turkey and a range of other countries with competing interests in the region.
Turkeys deepening involvement in Libyas civil war could also have profound implications for the future stability of North Africa, as well as Europe. For a start, if Ankara succeeds in its aim to save the GNA and its associates, the most likely outcome for Libya will be the partition of the country between the area controlled by Field Marshal Haftar to the east and the remainder controlled by Tripoli to the west.
Such an outcome, though, would only further exacerbate tribal tensions in the region, potentially leading to a dramatic surge in the number of migrants seeking to make their way to Europe, thereby creating a migrant crisis not seen since the height of the Syrian crisis in the previous decade.
Con Coughlin is the Telegraphs defence and foreign affairs editor
Updated: January 5, 2020 11:30 AM
See original here:
Turkey's gambit in Libya could tear the country apart - The National
- The cartoon that sums up the world's 'migrant crisis ... - May 9th, 2018 [May 9th, 2018]
- Migrant crisis: EU leaders split over new migrant deal ... - July 5th, 2018 [July 5th, 2018]
- Blame for the migrant crisis lies with national ... - July 5th, 2018 [July 5th, 2018]
- Migrant crisis: EU leaders plan secure migrant centres ... - July 5th, 2018 [July 5th, 2018]
- How Strive Masiyiwa is trying to stem the migrant crisis ... - July 9th, 2018 [July 9th, 2018]
- Europe's Refugee and Migrant Crisis - Sputnik International - November 27th, 2018 [November 27th, 2018]
- The migrant crisis - The Truthseeker - December 14th, 2018 [December 14th, 2018]
- Migrant crisis - Migrant crisis - Pictures - CBS News - December 15th, 2018 [December 15th, 2018]
- U.S. Decision To Cut Central America Aid Could Worsen ... - April 9th, 2019 [April 9th, 2019]
- Europe's Migrant Crisis | Reuters.com - April 20th, 2019 [April 20th, 2019]
- True Christianity: Imperfect People Striving Toward Perfection - May 2nd, 2019 [May 2nd, 2019]
- Europe: Looking for a Savior? - Life, Hope & Truth - May 2nd, 2019 [May 2nd, 2019]
- Does God Exist? Proof 1: Origin of the Universe - Life ... - May 2nd, 2019 [May 2nd, 2019]
- The Migrant Crisis: What Does It Mean? - Life, Hope & Truth - May 2nd, 2019 [May 2nd, 2019]
- alizyme Drugs & Medications for ailments - June 5th, 2019 [June 5th, 2019]
- Medicinal plants, herbs and mushrooms - Basement Shaman - June 5th, 2019 [June 5th, 2019]
- Trump administration announces the end of 'catch and release' - AZCentral - September 24th, 2019 [September 24th, 2019]
- What is the real story behind Judaism in Hungary? - JNS.org - September 24th, 2019 [September 24th, 2019]
- Fewer asylum seekers arriving in Finland | Yle Uutiset - YLE News - September 24th, 2019 [September 24th, 2019]
- Franciscan sister says respect for migrants under threat - Catholic San Francisco - September 24th, 2019 [September 24th, 2019]
- UK officials tell migrants in France: You are being lied to by people smugglers - Sky News - September 24th, 2019 [September 24th, 2019]
- Germany looks to Mexico to help tackle nursing-care crisis - DW (English) - September 24th, 2019 [September 24th, 2019]
- The End of Asylum? - Foreign Policy In Focus - September 24th, 2019 [September 24th, 2019]
- Stop Blaming Immigrants for Right-Wing Extremism - Just Security - September 24th, 2019 [September 24th, 2019]
- US, El Salvador Sign Asylum Deal - DTN The Progressive Farmer - September 24th, 2019 [September 24th, 2019]
- US not facing deep crisis in own neighbourhood: Central Americans denied asylum and aid - Norwegian Refugee Council - September 24th, 2019 [September 24th, 2019]
- Number of migrants now growing faster than world population, new UN figures show - UN News - September 24th, 2019 [September 24th, 2019]
- France's Macron Toughens Immigration Stance Amid Fears of More Asylum Seekers - VOA News - September 24th, 2019 [September 24th, 2019]
- Migrants in Limbo - Commonweal - September 24th, 2019 [September 24th, 2019]
- Climate Migrants May Number 143 Million by 2050 - The Daily Beast - September 24th, 2019 [September 24th, 2019]
- Leading aid agency calls for urgent EU action to tackle the migration and asylum crisis - The Parliament Magazine - September 24th, 2019 [September 24th, 2019]
- 5 EU Countries Agree on Distribution of Migrants - VOA News - September 24th, 2019 [September 24th, 2019]
- No end in sight: Mass exodus of Venezuelan refugees flood into neighboring countries - Big Think - September 24th, 2019 [September 24th, 2019]
- EU ministers meet in Malta to discuss migrant crisis - Times of Malta - September 24th, 2019 [September 24th, 2019]
- Trump Admin Ignored Its Own Data Linking Migrant Crisis to Climate Change - EcoWatch - September 24th, 2019 [September 24th, 2019]
- Mitsotakis Want's Help With Greece's Refugee, Migrant Crisis - The National Herald - September 24th, 2019 [September 24th, 2019]
- A dangerous red flower is driving record numbers of migrants to flee Guatemala - USA TODAY - September 24th, 2019 [September 24th, 2019]
- Interior ministers demand EU response to new migrant crisis - Vatican News - September 24th, 2019 [September 24th, 2019]
- Man arrested in northern Lincolnshire suspected of trying to smuggle migrants across Channel - Grimsby Live - October 1st, 2019 [October 1st, 2019]
- No refugees need apply - The Boston Globe - October 1st, 2019 [October 1st, 2019]
- This new tour of Berlin is guided by a Syrian refugee - Lonely Planet Travel News - October 1st, 2019 [October 1st, 2019]
- DHS Chief Urges Congress to Address the Fundamental Drivers of Migrant Crisis: Funds Will Only Mitigate It - Independent Journal Review - October 1st, 2019 [October 1st, 2019]
- Undocumented Poets and Writers Are Vital to the Struggle for Migrant Justice - The Nation - October 1st, 2019 [October 1st, 2019]
- Pope unveils migrant sculpture in St Peters Square and bemoans worlds indifference to their plight - The Independent - October 1st, 2019 [October 1st, 2019]
- French police turn blind eye and wave 'bye bye' to migrants making boat trips to UK - Express - October 1st, 2019 [October 1st, 2019]
- EU migrant crisis: France cannot take in all the misery in the world says Macron - Express.co.uk - October 1st, 2019 [October 1st, 2019]
- French police to double beach patrols after discovering two dead Iraqi migrants suspected of attempting to get to Britain - The Telegraph - October 16th, 2019 [October 16th, 2019]
- Winter poses new threat to migrants in Bosnian forest camp - The Wider Image - November 6th, 2019 [November 6th, 2019]
- The White Houses Build the Wall Game Was Horrible. It Was Also Really Boring. - Yahoo Lifestyle - November 6th, 2019 [November 6th, 2019]
- France to set migrant worker quotas in bid to appeal to rightwing voters - The Guardian - November 6th, 2019 [November 6th, 2019]
- UN official says fight for women's equality is far from over - Daily Inter Lake - November 6th, 2019 [November 6th, 2019]
- There's Still No Plan to Deal With Migrants in the Mediterranean - The Nation - November 6th, 2019 [November 6th, 2019]
- Europe has built barriers six times the length of the Berlin Wall since 1989 - Euronews - November 6th, 2019 [November 6th, 2019]
- U.S. too focused on 'freezing out asylum seekers' to fix refugee deal with Canada: researcher - CBC.ca - November 6th, 2019 [November 6th, 2019]
- Retired Admiral Says Turkey Pushing Refugee, Migrant Crisis on Greece - The National Herald - November 6th, 2019 [November 6th, 2019]
- Seeds of Europe's 'migrant crisis' are in Europe - Mail and Guardian - November 6th, 2019 [November 6th, 2019]
- How Lost Children Archive estranges the idea of aliens - The Guardian - December 21st, 2019 [December 21st, 2019]
- Terrified boy found wandering alone on M6 is migrant who doesnt know where his parents are - The Sun - December 21st, 2019 [December 21st, 2019]
- Church can't keep up with rising refugee numbers, Archbishop says - Loop News Trinidad and Tobago - December 21st, 2019 [December 21st, 2019]
- At least three migrant boats intercepted trying to cross Channel in horrific conditions - Express - December 21st, 2019 [December 21st, 2019]
- Costa Rica will ask for international help to assist migrant crisis - The Tico Times - December 21st, 2019 [December 21st, 2019]
- Officials have been cleared of wrongdoing in the deaths of 2 migrant kids last year, an internal watchdog says - Business Insider - December 21st, 2019 [December 21st, 2019]
- Riots in overcrowded Greek migrant camp on Samos - InfoMigrants - December 24th, 2019 [December 24th, 2019]
- The biggest news from Italy in 2019 Italianmedia - Il Globo - December 24th, 2019 [December 24th, 2019]
- Top 10 Films of 2019 - Boca Raton - December 24th, 2019 [December 24th, 2019]
- Pope Francis decries Libyan migrant camps as places of torture and slavery - The National - December 24th, 2019 [December 24th, 2019]
- Triumph of the right in Sweden is a result of the total failure of liberalism - RT - December 24th, 2019 [December 24th, 2019]
- A crisis within a crisis: Hundreds of unaccompanied minors left to 'fend for themselves' on Lesbos - InfoMigrants - December 24th, 2019 [December 24th, 2019]
- Repeat of 2015 migrant crisis inevitable without action: Turkish president | TheHill - The Hill - December 24th, 2019 [December 24th, 2019]
- WDET's Top Story, News and Issue of 2019 - WDET - December 24th, 2019 [December 24th, 2019]
- The 2010s have been the best decade for European populism to date - Daily Gaming Worlld - January 5th, 2020 [January 5th, 2020]
- The refugee crisis showed Europes worst side to the world - The Guardian - January 5th, 2020 [January 5th, 2020]
- Columnist Razvan Sibii: The resistance, as organized by immigration lawyers - GazetteNET - January 6th, 2020 [January 6th, 2020]
- What does Austria's new governing coalition mean for migrants? - InfoMigrants - January 6th, 2020 [January 6th, 2020]
- In a lifetime on the border, Agent Chancy Arnold has seen it transform - Los Angeles Times - January 6th, 2020 [January 6th, 2020]
- From Nazi camps to the Lake District: the story of the Windermere children - The Guardian - January 6th, 2020 [January 6th, 2020]
- 10 stories that changed Europe in the last decade - Euronews - January 6th, 2020 [January 6th, 2020]
- No network in times of crisis - The Hindu - January 6th, 2020 [January 6th, 2020]
- Muslim population of England smashes three million mark for first time ever, figures reveal - The Sun - January 6th, 2020 [January 6th, 2020]
- Austria's Kurz returns to power amid questions over whether 'marriage of convenience' with Greens can last - The Telegraph - January 6th, 2020 [January 6th, 2020]