Just as the coronavirus is more dangerous to people with underlying medical conditions, the Middle East and North Africa faces a crisis caused not by the coronavirus alone, but also by their already existing economic, social and political fragility. Combined with the new reality sweeping the world, they form a perfect storm that threatens the region in ways that are more dangerous than anything it has faced for decades.
Throughout the region it is hard to find a single country that one can honestly say is strong enough to face what is about to happen. Country after country has been struggling for years with fundamental challenges; civil wars in Iraq, Syria and Libya, major debt crises in Lebanon, Egypt and elsewhere, overburdened budgets and great poverty in Egypt and Morocco, countries that depend on foreign aid, tourism and investments, such as Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt even oil-rich economies are facing budget constraints as oil prices collapse because of over supply and slowing economic activity.
In the face of this storm, governments throughout the region have some immediate concerns, many of which carry within them the seeds of deeper challenges to come soon if this global crisis persists.
Thousands of Arabs seek medical care in Europe, the US and elsewhere every year because healthcare systems in almost all Arab countries are weak, and incapable of handling a pandemic. These fragile healthcare systems will be put under enormous additional pressure as more cases of COVID-19 are diagnosed. Combined with travel bans preventing anyone from leaving their own countries, and increasing difficulty in procuring medical equipment and medicines as supply chains stall, this is a real ticking bomb.
Another pressing issue will be how the region copes with inevitable shortages of food and medical supplies. Much of the region, if not all, depends heavily on imported goods, not only in the medical sector but also food and basic necessities. This dependency will be increasingly difficult to overcome as the global supply chain comes under intensified pressure and is interrupted, in some parts at least, for the foreseeable future. The lack of any long-term food security will be exposed and there will be major shortages.
The old traditional ways of obtaining hard currency and help in financing government budgets foreign aid, international loans, tourism, foreign direct investment, transfers and remittances from expats, or even exporting labor to other countries will no longer work. As countries around the world close their borders, take their own strict economic measures, increase their own debt and set their own economic incentive packaging to minimize the impact of the crises on their own people and labor forces, it will be more difficult for developing countries to find help.
All resources need to be focused on these efforts to prevent a temporary health crisis from becoming a major economic, social, and political tsunami that will overwhelm governments in the region.
Hafed Al-Ghwell
There is a weak underlying foundation to much of the regions political and economic systems, with oppression, corruption, top-down decision making and lack of freedom of information and debate all serving to deny both governments and societies the proper tools to address weaknesses in the system and reach consensus on how to tackle these challenges in a unified manner. This lack of the proper tools of governance means that as economic and social pressure builds, the chances of uprisings will increase, exposing the region to another potential cycle of revolts and chaos.
The regions top priority at the moment, in the face of these challenges, is to do anything it can to stop the spread of COVID-19. All resources need to be focused on these efforts to prevent a temporary health crisis from becoming a major economic, social, and political tsunami that will overwhelm governments in the region.
The second priority is to strengthen social safety nets for the most vulnerable in society; those who have no financial capacity to withstand even a short-term disruption to their incomes. This should include a combination of fiscal policy tools as recommended by the International Monetary Fund, such as a mix of targeted policies on hard-hit sectors and populations, including tax relief, government fees and cash transfers, and reprioritizing spending within the existing fiscal budgets, tight as they may be.
Historical evidence suggests that developing countries with much less global connectivity, such as those in the Arab world, tend to feel the full impact of such global crises a little later than more globalized economies. With that in mind, the Arab world is well advised to scale up its combined response to the pandemic much more quickly than it is doing now. The full force of this storm is yet to come.
The only real protection only from the disease and from its consequences is to reduce the level of its penetration and spread. The region will simply not be able to protect itself from the cascading wave of political, economic, and social earthquake that is coming, if it fails in doing this.
* Hafed Al-Ghwell is a non-resident senior fellow with the Foreign Policy Institute at the John Hopkins University School of Advanced InternationalStudies. He is also senior adviser at the international economic consultancy Maxwell Stamp and at the geopolitical risk advisory firm OxfordAnalytica, a member of the Strategic Advisory Solutions International Group in Washington DC and a former adviser to the board of the WorldBank Group. Twitter: @HafedAlGhwell
Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News' point-of-view
See the original post:
This region is ill prepared for the tsunami that is coming - Arab News
- Jackboot - Wikipedia - December 8th, 2016 [December 8th, 2016]
- The Federalist #51 - Constitution Society - January 8th, 2017 [January 8th, 2017]
- Free oppression Essays and Papers - 123helpme - January 25th, 2017 [January 25th, 2017]
- Labour movements in Congo Brazzaville: Between oppression and self determination - CADTM.org - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- A Modern Choice on Life - Harvard Political Review - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Opinion: While true oppression exists, hypocrisy of some women is clear - Shelby Township Source Newspapers - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Understanding Information Oppression in the Era of Trump - MediaFile - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Angolans Bravery Broke Down Chains of Colonial Oppression - Minister - AllAfrica.com - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Hoosier attorneys travel to Rwanda on legal mission trip - Indiana Lawyer - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- Bishop: Government has betrayed me over refugees - Premier - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Open Letter to NFL Players Traveling to Israel on a Trip Organized by Netanyahu's Government - The Nation. - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Police Disperse Shiite Protesters Demanding Release Of El-Zakzaky - SaharaReporters.com - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Turkey's HDP Women's Assembly issues feminist call-to-arms against 'one man rule' - Left Foot Forward - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Collin Nji: The first African to win Google's CodeIn Challenge - Pulse ... - Pulse Nigeria - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Student leader says 'black-on-black crime is not a thing,' wants to ... - The College Fix - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Sri Lanka: Tamil Insurgents Marxism Versus Nationalism - Sri Lanka Guardian - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- Israeli Knesset 'legalizes' robbery of Palestinian land - Liberation - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- LETTER: Evangelical Lutheran Church respond to political cartoon - The Dickinson Press - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- Visiting Our Past: Odyssey of Clyde pioneer Jacob Shook - Asheville Citizen-Times - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- Organize to defeat Trump's Muslim ban | Fight Back! - Fight Back! Newspaper - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- Do we have a legitimate government? - Altoona Mirror - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Anti-Castro Cuban-American lawmakers see a champion in Trump - The Daily Progress - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Anti-Trump Swedish Government Accused of Hypocrisy for Kowtowing to Iran - Heat Street - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- CSG President vetoes Israel-Palestinian lunch resolution | The ... - The Michigan Daily - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- Sweden's 'Feminist' Government Defends Veiling in Iran After Attacking Trump - Breitbart News - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- U. Mass Students Plot Strike Against 'Oppression' of Migrants - Breitbart News - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- March on Washington: Drawing the Line between Empowerment and Oppression - The Index - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- Ethiopian Athlete Who Made Anti-government Gesture in Rio Reunites With Family - Voice of America - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- Mottley: Tax clearance certificate an 'instrument of oppression' - Loop Barbados - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- Sweden's 'feminist' government criticized for wearing headscarves in Iran - Washington Post - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- Turkey purge: dark cloud of oppression hangs over country's universities - Times Higher Education (THE) (blog) - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Fox News' Todd Starnes Redefines 'The Deplorables' - Forward - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Christophobia: a Global Perspective - AINA (press release) - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- AzaadiFreedom from Indian Oppression - Economic and Political Weekly - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Iraqi forces advance on Islamic State-held western Mosul - Stars and Stripes - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- Henry Rollins Doesn't Smoke Pot, But Demands The Right to Choose To - Weed News - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- UC San Diego Students Protest Visit by 'Oppressive and Offensive' Dalai Lama - Heat Street - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- Commentary | We must all stand with Tibet - The McGill Daily (blog) - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- In Trump's America, Christian proselytizing is another form of oppression - LGBTQ Nation - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- Elders share experiences with oppression from their youth - B.C. Catholic Newspaper - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- Iran tells US chess champion to wear a hijab here's how she responds - TheBlaze.com - February 22nd, 2017 [February 22nd, 2017]
- Afro-Mexican people brought to light - The Daily Evergreen - February 23rd, 2017 [February 23rd, 2017]
- Online activism is leading the fight against oppression but at what cost? - Asian Correspondent - February 23rd, 2017 [February 23rd, 2017]
- Stephen Miller was no hero fighting left-wing oppression at Santa ... - Los Angeles Times - February 23rd, 2017 [February 23rd, 2017]
- Grass-roots leaders join call for 'disrupting' oppression that hurts many - Catholic News Service - February 23rd, 2017 [February 23rd, 2017]
- President Trump Breaks a Promise on Transgender Rights - New York Times - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]
- Pussy Riot Protests Through Make America Great Again Viral Video - Conatus News - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]
- Governor Treen brought sunshine to Louisiana governmental conservatism - Bayoubuzz - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]
- I want an international probe into failed Turkey coup Fethullah Glen - Citifmonline - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]
- Lateral Oppression Hurts Us All - The Lakota Country Times - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]
- On finding freedom from oppression, fear - Davisclipper - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]
- Supreme Court denies bail to leading anti-base activist in Okinawa; government accused of oppression - The Japan Times - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]
- Disobedience Checks Unjust Laws - The Oberlin Review - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]
- Cycles and Oppression - Patheos (blog) - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]
- Another Jewish cemetery desecrated; what will the President say? Isn't the government supposed to help? - San Diego Jewish World - February 27th, 2017 [February 27th, 2017]
- Transport groups hold nationwide transport strike to protest government's PUV modernization program - CNN Philippines - February 27th, 2017 [February 27th, 2017]
- Opinion: The Relevance of Orwell's 1984 - Emertainment Monthly (registration) (blog) - February 27th, 2017 [February 27th, 2017]
- Monitoring group documents Turkey-backed profiling in Netherlands - Turkey Purge - February 27th, 2017 [February 27th, 2017]
- What should we see in the ashes of the Standing Rock protest camp? - Liberation - February 28th, 2017 [February 28th, 2017]
- Opinion: Focusing on religious oppression in China misses the big ... - CNN - February 28th, 2017 [February 28th, 2017]
- Trump Vows Teamwork with 'Allies in the Muslim World' to 'Demolish and Destroy ISIS' - Breitbart News - March 1st, 2017 [March 1st, 2017]
- Freedom House: Chinese Communists Intensifying Religious ... - Voice of America - March 1st, 2017 [March 1st, 2017]
- ISIS Threatens China In New Video Showing Chinese Jihadists - Vocativ - March 1st, 2017 [March 1st, 2017]
- Focusing on religious oppression in China misses the big picture - Gant Daily - March 1st, 2017 [March 1st, 2017]
- This Is Why The Youth Is Picking Up Arms In Kashmir - Youth Ki Awaaz - March 2nd, 2017 [March 2nd, 2017]
- Saudi Arabia: Music video and government initiatives split society - Freemuse - March 3rd, 2017 [March 3rd, 2017]
- From Latin America to South Africa: it's time for effective solidarity towards Palestine - The Daily Vox (blog) - March 3rd, 2017 [March 3rd, 2017]
- Focusing on religious oppression in China misses the big picture - CNN International - March 3rd, 2017 [March 3rd, 2017]
- Articles: Islam, the Veil, and Oppression - American Thinker - American Thinker - March 3rd, 2017 [March 3rd, 2017]
- UK's student union rebukes officer for Israeli embassy plot - The Electronic Intifada (blog) - March 4th, 2017 [March 4th, 2017]
- Public needs to help get government back on track - Fairfield Daily Republic - March 4th, 2017 [March 4th, 2017]
- Shahbaz Bhatti's legacy six years on - DAWN.com - March 6th, 2017 [March 6th, 2017]
- The Readers' Forum: Monday letters - Winston-Salem Journal - March 6th, 2017 [March 6th, 2017]
- Focusing on religious oppression in China misses the big picture - CNN - March 6th, 2017 [March 6th, 2017]
- How America Became a Colonial Ruler in Its Own Cities - Vanity Fair - March 7th, 2017 [March 7th, 2017]
- Plurality of Americans are right: "dissatisfaction with government" worst problem facing country - Hilltop Views - March 7th, 2017 [March 7th, 2017]
- The Oppression of Eve: Was Patriarchy Actually The First Sin? - Patheos (blog) - March 7th, 2017 [March 7th, 2017]
- Thousands in women's rights march in Polish capital - National - thenews.pl - March 7th, 2017 [March 7th, 2017]
- Probe: Artist Blacklist Antidemocratic Oppression - KBS WORLD Radio - KBS WORLD Radio News - March 7th, 2017 [March 7th, 2017]
- Peoples' Tribunal Indicts Myanmar Leaders for Genocide Against Rohingya, Atrocities Against Kachin - The Chicago Monitor - March 8th, 2017 [March 8th, 2017]