Perhaps the golden rule is not to read too much into whats happening on the regional scene when assessing the prospects of the Wales national team.
After all, Welsh rugby has been here before.
In 2019, not one region made the Heineken Champions Cup knockout stage or the PRO14 play- offs, but Wales won a Six Nations Grand Slam under Warren Gatland.
Last year was a predictably barren season in Europe, with the Welsh professional teams failing to reach the knockout games, while they werent involved in the Guinness PRO14 final, either, or the Rainbow Cup showpiece game.
But Wales won the Six Nations under Wayne Pivac.
Its going to be a bigger achievement if Pivacs team can repeat the trick in the months ahead, though, and successfully defend their title.
Saturdays evidence in Scotland didnt bode well for the side in red exactly four weeks out from the start of the Six Nations.
Cardiff were spanked 34-10 by Edinburgh, while the Ospreys crashed 38-19 against Glasgow Warriors, their defence undermined by glaring individual errors and their attack as non-existent as Novak Djokovics membership of the Boosters for All Society.
Lets get certain things out of the way.
The Welsh regions all have holes in their squads because of the financial situation in Wales relative to their rivals.
It is debatable, too, how much the four teams are helped by loading their line-ups with Wales internationals.
Those involved play fewer games for their regional sides and it can be challenging to re-integrate Test players, a point made by Scarlets chairman Simon Muderack last term when he claimed some of the regions internationals were making Wales team calls rather than Scarlets calls after returning from the Six Nations and playing a Heineken Champions Cup match against Sale.
Evidently, the west Walians are learning their lesson with the signing of All Black Vaea Fifita from Wasps. He will add to a stable of quality imports in Llanelli who could be there for much of each season, with the list including Sione Kalamafoni, Sam Lousi, Tomas Lezana and, depending on whether Scotland pick him or not, Blade Thomson.
Having that lot around week-in, week-out offers a level of stability which should benefit the Scarlets no end.
Consider the value for money Kalamafoni has already given them already, with the Tongan displaying the kind of consistency and impact Filo Tiatia once contributed to the Ospreys and Xavier Rush supplied to Cardiff.
There will be those wholl doubt whether such players help the Wales team, but Tiatia had a hugely positive effect on local talent coming through, with those involved having a close-quarters opportunity to see what excellence looked like day-in, day-out.
Also, rugby in this corner of the world shouldnt just be about Team Wales. It's my belief the balance has been lost over the past decade and I feel thats been to the detriment of the sport this side of the River Severn.
That said, of course, quality imports cost, and money continues to be a problem throughout Welsh professional rugby.
How to solve that problem remains an issue few will agree on.
But the regions having to carry the burden of the 20million loan the Welsh Rugby Union took on to keep the game here afloat will not help Cardiff, Dragons, Ospreys and Scarlets.
Radically, after the losing efforts in Scotland over the weekend, former Wales international Lee Jarvis proposed rejigging the regional system so that just two Welsh sides compete in Europe.
Without sounding disrespectful to anyone but there are quite a few regional players that are (Welsh) Premiership players at best and thats not their fault its the system's fault IMO, wrote Jarvis on Twitter.
Strength in depth in Wales at the moment is NOT good.
Games today a hard watch. For us to compete at the TOP of European rugby again and reach semi finals + finals then they have to look at two regions.
East + West Best of the best in 2 Regions."
The suspicion is the view will find sympathy with plenty, but there will be many who will be opposed, doubtless arguing in favour of their teams right to vie for a place at the top table.
There is an argument that shedding one team would go some way to improving finances of the other three, though income from TV might be affected with fewer teams and matches and young players might head over the border in search of rugby, tightening the Welsh talent pool further.
Whatever, Pivac will have watched the matches on Saturday with concern.
Cardiff have had a nightmare time with their United Rugby Championship misadventure in South Africa leaving some players quarantined for 20 days. However you look at it, thats not perfect for professional athletes.
A number of their players looked off the pace physically in the first half, in particular, excellent though Edinburgh were with their accuracy, power and ability to play the game at pace.
Matters did improve after Tomos Williams came on for the second period, with the Wales international coming up with a performance that would have heartened Dai Young and Pivac. James Botham also showed up well before being the victim of what Young described as a head-on-head knock.
But Cardiff were poor, missing a gruesome 41 tackles as the Scots poured forward.
The Ospreys weren't much better over in Glasgow.
There were shocking individual errors in defence that led to tries and undermined the team performance, but the Ospreys were also blunt in attack and missed the leadership from scrum-half of Rhys Webb.
They look in desperate need of their injured players returning, though the likes of Jac Morgan and Will Griffiths fronted up, along with Morgan Morgan, their best player on the night, Luke Morgan and replacement Dewi Lake a force of nature in the loose, but his lineout throwing continues to be a concern.
Pivac needs to see evidence of more players showing form.
The Scarlets have played just one game since October 22 while the Dragons are stuck in a losing spiral.
Pivac, meantime, has to fashion a Six Nations challenge out of all this and multiple injuries.
Wales have shown many times over the past 14 years they can cope with adversity.
Track back to how they beat Scotland at Murrayfield in 2019, just days after the chaos of the Scarlets-Ospreys proposed merger plans became public. Warren Gatlands players not only handled the fall-out but went on to win a Grand Slam.
But to say that the omens are not great this time is to submit an early entry for the 2022 understatement of the year.
Pivac will know he has a huge challenge on his hands.
Success over the coming few months would be an achievement as good as any from Wales in recent times.
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The 72-29 pounding Scottish rugby just handed Wales ahead of 6 Nations - Wales Online
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