The holidays are at last upon us. And you know what that means that means filmmakers families gathering round the fire to watch Oscar screeners. Since the date change, this has always been the case. One week after New Years, Oscar ballots must be turned in. That means what happens THIS week will likely decide many of the nominations, give or take a party or two, a meet and greet or two.

So what movies do well at Oscar time? Well, it depends on the voters extended families. Are they art snobs? Are they blue-collar? Are they a mix of different types? Are they Bernie Sanders supporters? Are they mostly women? Are they demographically inclusive? A Best Picture winner will have to appeal across the board to all types of people. That is how best is defined with the preferential ballot. When you talk about winning Best Picture, it is never going to be the passion choice at least not passion alone. It has to be both broadly liked as well as passionately loved.

Its a huge mistake to discount the actual reasons why Green Book won. It revealed how much of a bubble Twitter is. And it showed the exact kind of movie that does well on a preferential ballot. It was the only feel-good movie in the race, with the exception of Black Panther, which did not have directing nor writing noms the backbone of Best Picture, along with actors. Black Panther was never a threat to win because of that. So if you want to understand how you predict Best Picture, think about that family of oddballs gathered round the fire watching the screener pile. Which movie are they all mostly going to like? Which movies will they even all want to watch?

How people respond to movies, especially people you care about, influence how you like the movie. If you put on a film the critics are raving about and your family or friends group is unimpressed? That is going to make a difference in how you respond when it comes time to vote. Critics high status folks on Twitter, whether Oscar bloggers or not are 100% invested in virtue signaling. To them, Green Book winning was tantamount to Trump getting elected (Im not even kidding). But to the friends and family around the fire? Green Book would have played like gangbusters. White, black, male, female doesnt matter: Green Book would have been a hit.

The films that will do well over the holidays with the fam around the fire are going to be: movies that have a LOT of buzz, and movies with big stars. Big stars kind of rule any time, anywhere, which bodes well for movies like Bombshell, Ford v Ferrari, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Critical acclaim will likely drive Parasite and 1917 to the top of the pile. Knives Out for sure. Probably Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. But those two films, like The Irishman, also have stumbling blocks: for Parasite, there are still people who dont like to watch movies with subtitles and simply wont. And with The Irishman, there are people who cant or wont or dont find the time to watch a three-and-a-half-hour movie. With, 1917, the gory landscape of war could seem too depressing over the holidays, but of course, its an epic action-packed thrill to watch, so there is no way people skip it.

The first hurdle is getting voters to watch the movies. All of this hype from Telluride to right now is about that, bringing the horse to water to see if he or she will drink. Whether voters drink or not is ultimately out of the hands of influencers and publicists. But the aim is to get them to put that movie on top of the pile.

Once they do watch the movies, which ones will do well? I suspect that of all of them, Ford v Ferrari could get the biggest boost from the screener pile, being that it is an enjoyable movie that many people will be surprised by. They think its going to be just another racing movie, but once they actually watch it they will see that its actually driven by great writing, directing, and acting. In short, it has it all. Its a little ridiculous that it isnt being hailed as one of the best films of the year but hey, critics gonna do what they do.

With this in mind, here is a pre-Globes prediction list.

Keep in mind these golden rules: Passion drives nominees in all categories, including Best Picture, BUT Passion alone does not drive winners in Best Picture

BEST PICTUREFRONTRUNNERS Looks to be a four-way race at the moment:Once Upon a Time in Hollywood vs. The Irishman vs. Parasite vs. 1917

Other NomineesJokerJojo RabbitMarriage StoryFord v FerrariBombshell or Little Women

What else could benefit if Little Women doesnt quite cut the mustard for the female director vote?

The FarewellHustlers

Potential spoilers:Knives OutDolemite Is My NameUncut GemsThe Two Popes

BEST ACTORJoaquin Phoenix, JokerAdam Driver, Marriage StoryLeonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in HollywoodChristian Bale, Ford v FerrariEddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name

Also possible:Taron Egerton, RocketmanGeorge MacKay, 1917Antonio Banderas, Pain and GloryRoman Griffin Davis, Jojo RabbitJonathan Pryce, The Two PopesAdam Sandler, Uncut Gems

BEST ACTRESSRenee Zellweger, JudyLupita Nyongo, UsCharlize Theron, BombshellScarlett Johansson, Marriage StoryCynthia Erivo, Harriet

Also possible:Saoirse Ronan, Little WomenAna de Armas, Knives Out

BEST SUPPORTING ACTORBrad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in HollywoodJoe Pesci, The IrishmanTom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the NeighborhoodAl Pacino, The IrishmanWesley Snipes, Dolemite Is My Name

Also possible:Tracy Letts, Ford v FerrariJamie Foxx, Just MercyAnthony Hopkins, The Two PopesWillem Dafoe, The Lighthouse

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESSLaura Dern, Marriage StoryMargot Robbie, BombshellJennifer Lopez, HustlersScarlett Johansson, Jojo RabbitNicole Kidman, Bombshell

Also possible:DaVine Joy Randolph, Dolemite Is My NameKathy Bates, Richard JewellFlorence Pugh, Little Women

BEST DIRECTORQuentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in HollywoodBong Joon-Ho, ParasiteSam Mendes, 1917Martin Scorsese, The IrishmanTodd Phillips, Joker

Also possible:Noah Baumbach, Marriage StoryTaika Waititi, Jojo RabbitJames Mangold, Ford v FerrariSafdie brothers, Uncut Gems

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAYQuentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in HollywoodNoah Baumbach, Marriage StoryBong Joon-Ho and Jin Won Han, ParasiteThe Safdie brothers, Uncut GemsKrysty Wilson-Cairns and Sam Mendes, 1917

Also possible:Scott Alexander and Larry Karaszewski, Dolemite Is My NameRian Johnson, Knives OutLulu Wang, The FarewellJez Butterworth, John-Henry Butterworth, and Jason Keller, Ford v FerrariLena Waithe, Queen & SlimCharles Randolph, BombshellTrey Edward Shults, Waves

ADAPTED SCREENPLAYSteve Zaillian, The IrishmanAnthony McCarten, The Two PopesTaika Waititi, Jojo RabbitGreta Gerwig, Little WomenTodd Phillips and Scott Silver, Joker

Also possible:Lorene Scafaria, HustlersDaniel Destin Cretton and Andrew Lanham, Just Mercy

CINEMATOGRAPHY1917Ford v FerrariOnce Upon a Time in HollywoodJokerThe Irishman

Also possible:The LighthousePortrait of a Lady on FireA Hidden LifeParasite

EDITINGFord v FerrariThe IrishmanOnce Upon a Time in HollywoodJokerParasite

Also possible:1917Marriage StoryJojo RabbitKnives OutUncut Gems

PRODUCTION DESIGN1917The IrishmanOnce Upon a Time in HollywoodFord v FerrariJojo Rabbit

Also possible:ParasiteJokerLittle WomenA Hidden LifeThe AeronautsAd Astra

SOUND MIXING1917Ford v FerrariOnce Upon a Time in HollywoodThe IrishmanJokerRocketman

SOUND EDITINGFord v Ferarri1917Once Upon a Time in HollywoodAvengers: EndgameJoker

COSTUME DESIGNDolemite Is My NameRocketmanLittle WomenOnce Upon a Time in HollywoodThe Irishman

Also possible:Downton AbbeyThe Irishman1917Jojo RabbitJudy

VISUAL EFFECTS1917The IrishmanThe AeronautsAvengers: EndgameThe Lion King

ORIGINAL SCORE1917Marriage StoryLittle WomenJokerFord v Ferrari

ORIGINAL SONGStand Up, HarrietInto the Unknown, Frozen IISpirit, The Lion KingIm Standing With You, BreakthroughIm Gonna Love Me Again, Rocketman

Also possible:A Glass of Soju, ParasiteI Cant Let You Throw Yourself Away, Toy Story 4Glasgow, Wild Rose

MAKEUP AND HAIRBombshellDolemite Is My NameJoker

Also possible:Downton AbbeyJudyLittle Women

ANIMATED FEATUREToy Story 4Frozen IIMissing LinkThe Lion KingHow to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

Also possible:I Lost My BodyAbominableThe Lego Movie 2: The Second Part

DOCUMENTARY FEATUREFor SamaApollo 11American FactoryHoneylandKnock Down the House

Also possible:AdvocateThe ApolloAquarelaThe Biggest Little FarmThe CaveThe Edge of DemocracyThe Great HackMaidenMidnight FamilyOne Child Nation

INTERNATIONAL FILMParasite, South KoreaPain and Glory, SpainLes Misrables, FranceAtlantics, SenegalHoneyland, North Macedonia

Also possible:The Boy Who Harnassed the Wind, UKBeanpole, RussiaThe Painted Bird, Czech RepublicTruth and Justice, EstoniaThose Who Remained, HungaryCorpus Christi, Poland

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Predictions Friday: Fireplace Family Time and the Screener Pile - Awards Daily