From Chinas standpoint, Trump is not so much tougher as he is different. Previous presidents tried to pressure China within the rules of the current global order; Trump prefers to act outside of that system. For instance, his predecessors turned to the World Trade Organization to challenge Chinas unfair trade practices, filing 21 complaints between 2004 and early 2017 (with a strong record of success). The Trump administration, openly disparaging of the WTO, has submitted only two complaints, one of which was a response to Chinas retaliation against Trumps own tariffs. Whereas previous presidents have sought to win over other powers, notably in Europe and East Asia, with similar interests in forcing China to play by the rules, this White House has alienated much of the European Union by threatening hefty tariffs, criticized NATO, and launched personal attacks on some of the Wests most influential leaders. In Asia, meanwhile, he withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a pact aimed at solidifying American ties to its allies.

In that sense, a president with a more normal American foreign policyin which Washington works closely with its friends and stands behind international norms and institutionsisnt good for China. The Democratic nominee, Joe Biden, has already vowed to forge a coalition of countries to isolate and confront China. When we join together with fellow democracies, our strength more than doubles, Biden argued. China cant afford to ignore more than half the global economy. That, and not Trump, is the stuff of Chinese nightmares.

Whoever wins in November, policy toward China isnt likely to soften. A near consensus has formed in Washington, across the political aisle, that China is a strategic threat to the U.S., and there may be no way to turn back the clock to the more halcyon days of patient American engagement. There are far fewer doves left, even on the left, Poling, of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, said. A Democrat who comes in now is not going to be an Obama Democrat when it comes to China. That is no longer politically possible.

Claremont McKennas Pei speculated that some in Beijing may still prefer a Biden victory, if only hoping for a pause in tensions as the Democrats, at least at first, focus on their domestic priorities. But the Chinese, he said, might also come to regret it. The Trump people believe that the U.S. alone can deal China a fatal blow, Pei said. Democrats would likely reach out to allies to form a much more united front against China. If the Democrats succeed, China would be in a much more difficult situation in the long run.

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Why China Wants Donald Trump to Win - The Atlantic