If the last six months in Lebanon have taught us anything about extraordinary timeswhether financial collapse, revolutionary moments, or pandemic wavesit is the centrality of having grassroots organizations that can play an important role in protecting collective interests, providing social safety nets, and envisioning alternatives that hold social justice at their core. At a time when the economic situation is in a free fall, and people are requested to stay home in order to contain the pandemic, the elephant in the room remains the social and economic consequences of such a measure. After all, a pandemic does not only require medical and public health interventions, but also social, political, and economic plans that can uphold society in such difficult times, especially as this hits in an already collapsing economy.

Several weeks into the lockdown in Lebanon, the government has only taken very slow and limited measures to protect what they qualify as being the poorest. Of course, this gave roomintentionally, I would argueto sectarian leaders to resurface with their clientelism in the form of donation boxes. But in times like these, social protection cannot be equated to a charity program targeting the poor. Given the magnitude of the crisis, it is society at large that needs protection, and with it, a broader vision is required in order to get out of the multiple crises the country is going through simultaneously. Who will protect the daily wage workers who have lost their jobs due to the lockdown? The unemployed who have no social protection? The workers and employees who have been laid off? The employees who have lost more than half of their salaries because of the financial crisis? Who will protect domestic workers or migrant workers? What about the medical staff that are risking their lives to save ours? The cleaners, garbage collectors, and delivery workers who have been our essential workers, keeping us clean and safe in our houses, while being exploited and underpaid? Who will protect people who are unable to pay their rent? Or those who are unable to put food on their tables anymore? Who will protect the owners of small businesses who are unable to make ends meet anymore? After all, werent the youth encouraged for decades to be entrepreneurs and create their own businesses? Who protects them now that their small investments have only resulted in debts and losses? These social categories do not all qualify as the poorest, but they all require immediate social protection in the form of social justice, not charity.

One of the main predicaments of the Lebanese uprising and the current COVID-19 pandemic lockdown is the absence of strong and active unions and labor organizations. It is in times like these that unions and syndicates play a crucial role in protecting the interests of most people in society, and take a leading role in pushing for social and economic plans that guarantee social protection.

Why Labor Organizations?

While some consider it to be old school to insist on the importance of labor organizations, an informed reading of socio-economic and political dynamics in Lebanon points to the centrality of such types of organizations in challenging the existing neoliberal-sectarian regime. It is not a coincidence that the post-civil war era in Lebanon was marked by a systematic and violent crackdown on unions that led, by the end of the 1990s, to a full cooptation of the General Confederation of Workers (GCWL), the countrys national trade union center. Similarly, professional orders were also dominated by sectarian party politics, and played an important role in upholding the interests of the ruling elites.

The post-war neoliberal rolling back of the state and the flourishing of non-state welfare in the form of clientelism created a system of inequality whereas only party partisans can potentially benefit. It is a system where bankers, businessmen, and sectarian leaders are able to accumulate wealth and exploit workers and employees with little to no resistance from below. The weakening of the unions meant that the power of collective bargaining and the struggle for social justice were made impossible. In such context, two types of activism flourished in post-war Lebanon: Sect-based mobilization (mainly in the form of political parties) and issue-based campaigns (mainly taking the shape of civil society activism). Despite their seemingly opposite paths, both streams have contributeddirectly or indirectlyto the reproduction of the neoliberal-sectarian regime through the fragmentation of causes, the elevation of identity politics, and the professionalization of issue-based activism without ever questioning the very structure of the political or economic system.

Therefore, it is only when society starts to organize along class interests and to demand social justice by questioning the accumulation of wealth or by pushing for social protection as a right for all, rather than clientelism, that the regime is really threatened in its core. This is not an overstatement of the power of the people, but rather a reminder of the understated power of organization that is interest-based. The mobilization of the Union Coordination Committee in 2012, which aimed to improve working conditions of civil servants and teachers, is one such example of the power of alternative unions to pressure and to achieve benefits that contribute to social protectiondespite the unfortunate crackdown that brought the movement to a halt in 2014.

Revival of Labor and Professional Organizations since October 2019

Since the start of the uprising in October 2019, new groups of workers, employees, and professionals started to emerge. While these movements were mainly spontaneous and largely unorganized, the severity of the financial crisis and its catastrophic implication on the labor market pushed employees to come together on many occasions, either informally or through pre-existing unions, to protect their rights and to collectively negotiate salaries and benefits.

As expected, the official GCWL did not mobilize in the uprising, and professional orders also remained widely silent and at the margin of the historic events. It was only after the election of an independent candidate as president of the Beirut Bar Association that the role of professional orders in the uprising surfaced. Simultaneously, new bodies of shadow unions or professional associations started to take shape and to organize as alternatives to the coopted and dysfunctional syndicates and orders. Clearly inspired by the Sudanese Professionals Association, a new Association of Professionals ( ) was declared on 28 October, calling on professionals, employees, and workers to organize in their workplaces, and to couple the political struggle with a socio-economic struggle that brings back the question of labor and social justice to the core.

While such initiatives can play a crucial role in the unfolding of the uprising, their success in revamping the role of syndicates and creating a nationwide labor movement will largely depend on their ability to organize in a democratic and coherent way. These nascent organizations are now faced with the sudden shift to work from home for many employees, and the emergency of essential workers to report to work without interruption. In such difficult and unusual times, the challenge becomes to come up with a new repertoire of contention that can devise tactics of organizing and mobilizing that pressure for bargaining and protecting labor rights and social safety nets.

Moreover, such initiatives should also make room for types of organization that are not merely traditional labor unions or professional associations. For example, given the prevalence of the informal sector in Lebanon and the high rates of unemployment, it would make sense for these groups in society to organize based on informality or unemployment. Such organizations are crucial for social protection since they would raise very important demands such as the right to unemployment benefits, which would limit clientelism and youth migration, or the right to free universal healthcare. Had we organized and activated such unions and associations long before, the response to the COVID-19 pandemic at the social and economic level would have been much different today.

Finally, building a strong and independent labor movement is crucial to channel the popular demands of the October uprising for social justice into a political project that can have serious leverage in the balance of power between the regime and the people. Looking at the experiences of the Arab uprisings over the past decade, it becomes clear that the only two countries that were able to build on their popular upheavals to launch a somehow democratic transitional political process were Tunisia and Sudan. In both cases, labor unions and professional associations played a key role.

Imagining a political transition in Lebanon toward a more just and fair system will surely require unions and syndicates to play a central role. This is even more crucial today, at a time when the whole world will be going into a recession and when opportunities for exporting our youth to work abroadas has been the Lebanese formula for decadeswill be shrinking considerably. Protecting society means organizing based on our interests as workers, employees, unemployed, or underemployed. After all, a job and a decent income are a right, not a privilege; and the core of the problem is in the distribution of wealth, not in its existence.

Rima Majed is Assistant Professor of Sociology at American University of Beirut and LCPS research fellow.

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Lebanon: Financial Collapse, Revolution, and Pandemic: Where are the Unions? - prruk.org

We will not and cannot return to the world as it was before the pandemic struck. We must rebuild societies that are better, more resilient and we must do so together.Secretary General Antonio Guterres

The unprecedented crisis triggered by the spread of the COVID-19 virus, has focused the full attention of the United Nations System (UN) on a strategy of rapid response and recovery. In the words of the UN Secretary-General, this pandemic is the worst global crisis since World War II. The IMFs World Economic Outlook frames the depth of the current global economic recession as the deepest since the Great Depression.

I. Introduction: The COVID Response

The UNs efforts to help save lives and protect people from the COVID-19 pandemic focus on three critical components, all led by each countrys Resident Coordinator: the health response, coordinated by the World Health Organisation (WHO); the humanitarian response, coordinated by the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA); and the socio-economic response, coordinated by the UN Development Programme (UNDP) in close collaboration with all UN agencies in 162 countries and territories.

In a recent report entitled Shared responsibility, global solidarity: Responding to the socio-economic impacts of COVID-19, the UN Secretary-General calls for a large-scale, coordinated, comprehensive multilateral response that amounts to at least 10 per cent of GDP. The size of this commitment requires an open discussion about debt relief in all developing countries in fragile/crisis contexts, in low and middle-income countries as well as in Small Island Developing States.

While its impact will vary from country to country, Covid-19 will likely increase poverty and inequalities at a global scale. According to the UN International Labour Organization, working hours are projected to decline by 6.7% in Q2 (2020), equivalent to 195 million full-time workers, with the world losing between $860 billion to $3.4 trillion in labor income. The UN Conference on Trade and Development projects 30 to 40 per cent downward pressure on global foreign direct investment flows. The World Tourism Organization sees a 2030 per cent decline in international arrivals. The UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization forecasts that 1.5 billion students will be out of school. Inequality of access to broadband connectivity and inaccessibility of ICTs hinders effective remote participation and access to remote schooling arrangements, health information and telemedicine by all. According to the International Telecommunication Union, an estimated 3.6 billion people remain offline, with most of the unconnected living in the least developed countries.

To operationalise the UN Secretary-Generals report, the UN development system has developed a socio-economic response framework and has switched into emergency mode. A significant portion of the UNs existing portfolio of sustainable development programmes of a total of $17.8 billion across all the SDGs is being adjusted and expanded towards COVID-19 related needs, in close collaboration with programme countries, donors and partners.

II. The Socio-Economic Response

The UNs response to the socio-economic impact of the COVID-19 crisis considers a variety of interlinked dimensions that need to be addressed in an integrated manner to protect the needs and rights of people living under the duress of the pandemic, with particular focus on the most vulnerable countries, groups, and people who risk being left behind.

1. HEALTH FIRST: PROTECT AND STRENGTHEN THE HEALTH SYSTEM: Health systems are being overwhelmed by demand for services generated by the COVID-19 outbreak. When health systems collapse, both direct mortality from the outbreak and avertable mortality from vaccine and other care interventions, preventable and treatable conditions increase dramatically. At least half of the worlds population still do not have full coverage of essential health services and about 100 million people are still being pushed into extreme poverty (defined as living on 1.90 USD or less a day) because they have to pay for health care. Over 930 million people (around 12% of the worlds population) spend at least 10% of their household budgets to pay for health care.

Countries with the weakest health systems stand before huge challenges in all these aspects. There must be immediate, targeted actions to allow countries to maintain essential lifesaving health services even as they surge to meet the spike in demand for acute care. And there must be a complementary effort on health systems recovery, preparedness and strengthening with a focus on primary health care and Universal Health Coverage (UHC). Massive investment in health will be needed for both, maintaining services and to strengthen preparedness of health systems to respond to future waves of COVID-19 and future global outbreaks.

2. PROTECT PEOPLE: SOCIAL PROTECTION AND BASIC SERVICES: The COVID-19 crisis impacts the worlds poorest and most vulnerable. The crisis will devastate incomes and access to basic services with intergenerational implications for families on multidimensional poverty and inequality. Many governments are responding to the crisis by expanding existing programmes, but 4 billion people accounting for 71% of the world population, including 2 out of 3 children have no or inadequate social protection to start with. Therefore, the scope of the challenges ahead requires an extraordinary scale up of the response. Those with informal or unstable employment, entrepreneurs and those working in the service industry (majority women) are most affected, with only 1 in 5 unemployed persons able to avail of unemployment benefits. Social protection responses must consider differentiated impacts of COVID-19 on vulnerable groups and women and men.

Access to social services is being curtailed either through reduction in services or in access. Key areas include: (a) Food and Nutrition: The disruption of markets impacts on the quality of diets and nutrition practices, which translate into an increase of mortality, morbidity and malnutrition among the population groups with the highest nutrition needs; (b) Education: About 90% of the total number of school children in the world have been directly affected by school closures, with an estimated 370 million school children also missing out on school meals. Adolescent girls already lack access to secondary education and are at heightened risk; (c) Water and sanitation: WASH services will be affected with public utilities potentially facing less than optimal staffing and available workforce, disrupted supply chains, and challenges in payments to support functionality putting these services at grave risk of collapsing. Women-headed households are more likely to have inadequate housing, including on water and sanitation, which can increase health risks, especially in cases of overcrowding of shelters; (d) Gender-Based Violence (GBV): Quarantine and isolation policies, coupled with financial stress on families, individuals and communities, will exacerbate the conditions for women already vulnerable to domestic violence, estimated to be at least one third of all women. Care and support to GBV survivors may be disrupted when health service providers are overburdened; (e) Protection, mental health and psychosocial support: Fear, worry and acute stressors can lead to long-term consequences, coupled with diminished availability to services from social workers and case workers, leaving women and the most vulnerable exposed to violence, abuse, exploitation and neglect.

3.PROTECT JOBS AND ECONOMIC RECOVERIES: COVID-19 has plunged the world economy into a recession with deep consequences and historical levels of unemployment and deprivation. It is estimated that we could lose 25 million jobs and see losses in labour income in the range of USD 860 billion to USD 3.4 trillion. Small and medium enterprises, the self-employed, daily wage earners and migrant workers are hit the hardest. Supporting income and employment for workers needs to be a core element of stimulus packages. Most vulnerable workers are in the informal economy, with no or limited access to social protection, nor do they have the economic security to take sick leave, get treated if required, or cope with lockdown. Women represent approximately 70 per cent of frontline workers dealing with the pandemic in the health and social sector, many of whom are migrant workers. Women are also overrepresented in some of the services sectors most impacted by the crisis, mostly lacking social protection, and will also bear a disproportionate burden in the care economy.

Economic recovery is about protecting critical productive assets, productive units and productive networks during the crisis. Ensuring the continued or improved functioning of SMEs across sectors, including food and other essential goods and services supply chains, is of particular urgency. First, policy actions across multiple sectors and mitigation of adverse policy effects on essential services are needed to avoid disruption and permanent job losses. Second, employment crises are the harbingers of political crises. Disruptions in massive employment sectors presents immediate existential threats to essential services that result in riots, violence and erosion of trust in institutions and governments. Third, a global economic recession will impact global population movements and hence affect countries with high levels of migration and large portions of remittances in their GDP. The return of migrants and the reduction of remittances will likely surpass the capacity of the formal and informal sectors in those countries to absorb large numbers of returnees or additional local job seekers in the local labour market.

4.THE MACROECONOMIC RESPONSE AND MULTILATERAL COORDINATION: A major global economic recession is underway, along with the possibility of a financial crisis, with major implications for vulnerable population groups and households. A large-scale fiscal and financial effort for counter-cyclical spending is urgently needed everywhere.

A three-step strategy is essential for the socio-economic response to the COVID-19 crisis. First, a rapid assessment of the potential impact of the crisis is needed in order to quantify the spending necessary to contain it. Second, an assessment of the fiscal space available to finance increased spending, as it will restrict the governments capacity for action. Third, an analysis of policy priorities and available policy measures considering both financing and implementation constraints faced by governments. The possible implications of the proposed policy measures will need to be accounted for as well.

As the UN Secretary-General has noted, a large scale, coordinated and comprehensive multilateral response is needed now more than ever. COVID-19 is a global problem and confronting the effects of the pandemic will require global and coordinated efforts supported by regional initiatives and regional institutions. While the level and intensity of the impact of COVID-19 varies across the world, countries under sanctions may be particularly affected. Three areas of regional coordination are particularly relevant: trade policy, monetary coordination and enhanced connectivity.

5.SOCIAL COHESION AND COMMUNITY RESILENCE: The impact of COVID-19 on the life of rural and urban communities is set to be massive, particularly in poor and densely populated urban areas and slums. 1 billion people live in slums, where living conditions affect the health of the urban poor dramatically, where people are unable to self-isolate and where their livelihood depends on income from day to day work in the informal sector.

The scale of the socio-economic impact of COVID19 on the urban and rural poor will largely depend on tailored solutions for these communities. This will require a close interaction between national, subnational and local Governments and communities, based on a good understanding of the specific situations of communities through local assessments, strengthen community-led advocacy and service delivery. It will also require that communities are empowered to participate in local planning and in the oversight of services.

The COVID-19 crisis also threatens social cohesion as the crisis can erode trust within society and with respect to governments. Whole-of-society approaches are essential to confront the socio-economic impacts of the crisis. Social cohesion, embedded in actors, communities and institutions, holds the society together and is critical to the achievement of the SDGs, advancing the values, norms and fundamental human rights. Close attention should be paid to the impact of COVID-19 on fragile political transitions and in countries already facing a rapid deterioration of security conditions, on top of weak health systems and climate change.

III. A focus on debt

The size of fiscal and financial stimulus needed in each country - short run measures to address the pandemic, and fiscal policy to spur demand in the medium run - is in the order of several percentage points of GDP. Yet, many developing countries, including low- and middle-income countries, fragile/crisis context countries and Small Island Development States, will be unable to raise the resources needed.

Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, global debt had reached record highs. As the UN 2020 Financing for Sustainable Development Report points out, the long period of unusually low international interest rates and unprecedented levels of global liquidity associated with quantitative easing gave developing countries, including least developed countries, increased access to commercial financing. While providing much needed resources in the short term, this has also resulted in higher debt servicing costs, and heightened interest rate, exchange rate and rollover risks. Forty-four per cent of least developed countries and other low-income developing countries were already at high risk of external debt distress or already in debt distress prior to the outbreak of the pandemic.

A UN proposal: Debt relief should not be based on level of income but on vulnerability

The global COVID-19-induced contraction in economic activity is having dire consequences, including on debt sustainability. This is not limited to low-income countries. Middle-income countries, home to 75% of the worlds population and 62% of the worlds poor, are highly vulnerable to a debt crisis, lost market access and capital outflows. Small Island Developing States face structural constraints on growth, energy and food imports, and fiscal space that need to be addressed in comprehensive fashion.

Principles for Global Solidarity

To effectively halt a debt crisis, we need to move quickly. We propose a framework that aims to ensure debt relief, while accounting for heterogeneous debt situations across countries and the need for tailored policy responses.

This approach builds on principles for debt sustainability discussed and agreed at the United Nations and laid out most recently in the Addis Ababa Action Agenda. They also reflect best practices underlying debt resolution at the IMF and the World Bank.

These include:

i) Debtors and creditors must share responsibility for preventing and resolving unsustainable debt situations

ii) Debt restructurings should be timely, orderly, effective, fair and negotiated in good faith

iii) Debt workouts should aim to restore public debt sustainability, while enhancing the ability of countries to achieve sustainable development, growth with greater equality and the sustainable development goals.

A Three Phase Approach

A comprehensive approach across three phases, involving all relevant creditors and all countries facing liquidity and solvency issues due to the crisis is required.

Phase 1

An across-the-board debt standstill for two years for all developing countries who cannot service their debt and request relief should be instituted. To start, official bilateral creditors should immediately institute an emergency debt payment moratorium on sovereign debt.

The standstill should also:

Include other creditors (private creditors as well as multilaterals). Coordination is of the essence.

Extend beyond IDA countries to include other low-income and those heavily indebted middle-income countries that request relief.

Include principal and interest payments, as well as associated fees and charges

Set a cut-off date, after which new financing is excluded from future debt restructurings, in order to facilitate access to financing after this date.

Allow for repayment schedules that ensure ability of countries to implement the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda.

Phase 2

A second phase should consider a more comprehensive assessment and options towards debt sustainability. Debt swaps can release resources for the COVID-19 response in developing countries, although they may not adequately solve unsustainable debt situations.

A debt mechanism for the SDGs, with a focus on creating fiscal space for recovery in a resilient manner and SDG achievement could be considered.

Phase 3

Addressing long outstanding issues in the international debt architecture should be cast as a third phase given the urgency and immediacy of the need to act in the face of COVID.

This new international debt architecture should build upon the Principles established in the Financing for Sustainable Development Agenda of timely, orderly, effective, fair resolutions. It should aim at preventing defaults from turning into prolonged financial and economic crises, restoring public debt sustainability, and enhancing the ability of countries to achieve the sustainable development goals.

IV. Next Steps

The pandemic has reminded us, in the starkest way possible, of the price we pay for weaknesses in health systems, social protections and public services. It has underscored and exacerbated inequalities, above all gender inequality, laying bare the way in which the formal economy has been sustained on the back of invisible and unpaid care labour. It has highlighted ongoing human rights challenges, including stigma and violence against women.

Building a better, post-pandemic future will require social and economic interventions today that build greater resilience tomorrow. To be resilient, COVID-19 recovery efforts must be part of the solution to climate change the other global crisis facing this generation. They must accelerate rather than undermine decarbonization, the protection of natural capital, social equality and inclusion, the realization of human rights for everyone, and strong, capable governments and institutions all critical, systemic elements to avoiding such an outbreak again.

Rather than being put aside as aspirational in a time of crisis, the SDGs offer a framework for a fair and sustainable transition, as they recognize the interconnected nature of all life on this planet. Beyond the socio-economic frame of the current response, the role the environment and natural capital will play in the path to recovery is a policy choice that warrants further elaboration, as do good governance, gender equality and empowerment, and the protection and promotion of human rights for all.

As the UN Secretary-General report avers, we need to build back better. A large-scale, coordinated and comprehensive multilateral response is needed now more than ever. The COVID-19 crisis is a global problem and confronting the effects of the pandemic will require global and coordinated efforts supported by regional and sub-regional collaboration.

The UN is fully mobilized. It will make full use of its programmatic assets, contribute through actions that enable and empower, and through words that connect and protect with the SDGs as compass. It is also establishing a new Multi-Partner Trust Fund for COVID19 Response and Recovery. The collective know-how of the UNs Country Teams is operational and mobilized to implement this strategy over the next 12 to 18 months, led by Resident Coordinators in 162 countries and territories, and supported by a global and regional network of expertise and experience.

There will be no return to the old normal. The massive fiscal and financial repurposing made by governments in these weeks and months, including the redirection of fossil fuel subsidies to aid the response, are a glimpse of the future. They suggest that the status quo and business-as-usual are policy choices, not inevitable constraints on sustainable development.

Recovering from this pandemic must not come at the expense of tackling others. We need to do everything possible to ensure that our efforts to support countries ravaged by Covid-19 do not divert resources from existing crises addressing the needs of refugees and other vulnerable groups; tackling the global climate emergency; ending violence against women and girls; and putting an end to discrimination in all its forms. How stimulus plans are implemented matters to what this recovery will look like. The global recovery needs to be fair; it needs to be green, and above all, it must be inclusive.

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United Nations Statement to the Development Committee - UNDP

Policymakers must be empowered down to the district levels to respond differentially based on local data.

Governments across the world face a near impossible choice in tackling the Covid-19 virus lockdown and prevent spread, but risk economic collapse and potentially many dying of non-Covid-19 reasons, or remain (mostly) open to minimise the socio-economic fallout, but risk many dying of Covid-19.

To make matters worse, there is little data to base a policy response on. Our knowledge of this new virus (transmission mechanisms, environmental triggers, immunity, etc) is still nascent and fast evolving. We also dont know enough about the potential adverse socio-economic and health impacts of the proposed public health policies. While many countries in the developed world have gone down the route of blanket lockdowns, for others, the choice is harder to make.

Physical distancing and locking down will be particularly damaging for the developing world. In Pakistan, much of the economy is informal. According to the Labour Force Survey 2017-18, the informal sector accounts for 72 per cent of non-agricultural employment. This makes it harder to target and provide financial assistance to those who may need it most.

Loss of livelihood and severe financial hardships may be accompanied by food shortages. In South Asia, food supply chains are dominated by labour-intensive SMEs. This means that extended lockdowns and quarantines may result in food supply disruptions especially in midstream and downstream segments retail, food service, distribution.

Health issues which require regular care are widely prevalent in Pakistan. The World Health Organisation characterises Pakistan as a TB high-burden country with the fourth highest prevalence of multi-drug resistant TB globally. In young children, diarrhoea is still a major killer, and malnutrition and stunting are persistent problems. Maternal deaths due to preventable causes prevail and half of women of reproductive age are anaemic.

The impact of Covid-19 policies on an already weak and over-stressed healthcare system must be well thought out. Managing health conditions in a lockdown may be difficult. Conversely, easing distancing measures may be too risky as the high prevalence of these health conditions in some populations makes them highly vulnerable to the Covid-19 virus.

Fiscal space is severely limited for adequate relief measures and countercyclical policies which will be required as the economy comes to a grinding halt. Weak state capacity may also make it nearly impossible to implement and enforce a country-wide lockdown, while ensuring all citizens are taken care of.

Understandably, these are very tough decisions to make. While the fear of uncontrolled spread and mortality eventually pushed the government out of paralysis, at times it also led to panic and poorly thought out decisions. The decision to expand the Ehsaas programme, for example, was a good one but the execution was poorly thought out with massive crowding outside distribution points.

The decision to ease the lockdown and open up some industries is also a controversial one especially with little transparency on the criteria being used to strengthen or ease the lockdowns.

In Pakistan this crisis has also become politicised resulting in misalignment of strategies across government tiers. The enormity of this challenge requires cooperation rather than tribalism. Our leaders need to work together to save lives and build resilient systems for the long-term.

Up till now the choice has largely been presented as a binary: Lockdown and prevent spread but risk economic collapse, loss of livelihoods, and deaths from other preventable reasons; or remain open to minimise this socioeconomic disaster, but risk health systems buckling and thousands dying from the virus.

Read: A better response to the Covid-19 challenge lies in smart lockdown strategies

Given the dearth of data, however, we are driving blind: we just dont know enough about the health and economic impact to figure out the trade-offs between these choices. How can we make better decisions in the face of such great uncertainty?

The crux of our approach is the importance of learning. Governments must draw on a well-developed and well-tested machinery for how to make decisions under uncertainty. Policy actions should inform our learning so that policies are tested and refined in real-time. This is what we call smart containment with active learning.

While some decisions must be made immediately (such as, increasing testing capacity and personal protective equipment for health workers), others may be better made after collecting some information (such as, socio-economic data to better target the relief response). Many decisions may also be refined over time as more information comes in (such as, which specific aspects of distancing and lockdown strategies are most effective).

The smart containment approach allows for a locally heterogeneous policy response each area may have different prevalence, and different needs based on demographic, economic and other characteristics. For example, areas with high population densities or areas with high-risk health characteristics such as high incidence of TB, may need to be treated differently.

Policymakers must be empowered down to the district and local levels to respond differentially based on local data and ground realities. These ground realities then translate into differential and graded decisions on smart testing strategies, physical distancing and lockdown measures, relief measures, public messaging, health sector capacity, and so on.

The active learning aspect calls for re-evaluating policy measures regularly based on data and evidence. This will help us better understand the benefits and costs of each policy and refine accordingly. This process of continuous re-evaluation can provide a roadmap for the next 18 months that is fully guided by the evidence.

The roadmap should inform the design of physical distancing measures and enable better targeting of support measures to rebuild the economy and society.

Consider the two contrasting policy choices (a) a weaker lockdown where there is isolation, contact tracing and care for those who are sick but there is also a degree of freedom of movement to allow essential workers, such as food producers and distributors, to continue their work, or (b) strict quarantines and physical isolation which will require massive investments in maintaining food chains, ensuring necessities for every family and providing critical care for those who need it.

Up till now, decisions have been made in the face of substantial uncertainty without any clear guidelines for how those decisions should be made to resolve the uncertainty as rapidly as possible. The approach we recommend incorporates prior information and multidisciplinary expertise in a structured fashion and enables real-time data responsiveness.

The Analytical Angle is a monthly column where top researchers bring rigorous evidence to policy debates in Pakistan. The series is a collaboration between the Centre for Economic Research in Pakistan and Dawn.com. The views expressed are the authors alone.

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The Analytical Angle: How smart containment, along with active learning, can help mitigate the Covid-19 crisis - DAWN.com

The current lockdown and social distancing measures brought about by the coronavirus crisis, coupled with the direct effects of the virus on workers and firms, are having a huge impact on economies in the UK and around the world. Existing literature on the health impacts of business-cycle fluctuations and recessions shows that the resulting economic downturn will have significant consequences on peoples health outcomes in the short and longer term. A debate has started on whether the adverse health effects of a recession may be greater than the increased morbidity and mortality within the pandemic itself. This briefing note discusses some of the mechanisms through which shocks to macroeconomic conditions may affect health.

An economic downturn has a number of effects on peoples lives through increased unemployment, decreased employment, reductions in income and wealth, and increased uncertainty about future jobs and income. The health effects caused by these adverse macroeconomic conditions will be complex, and will differ across generations, regions and socio-economic groups. Groups that are vulnerable to poor health are likely to be hit hardest even if the crisis hit all individuals equally, but evidence is already emerging that the economic repercussions of the crisis are falling disproportionately on young workers, low-income families and women (Joyce and Xu, 2020) so this will also need to be taken into account. Policies that the government has put in place, as well as the subsequent policies that will be implemented both for the exit strategy and for post-pandemic economic recovery, will play an important role in determining the eventual health consequences.

This briefing note discusses what we know about the health effects of business-cycle fluctuations and recessions, but there are additional aspects of the coronavirus crisis that are unique to the current situation that stem from this being a pandemic. Most obviously, the crisis has an impact on the availability of healthcare. At the moment, all non-urgent elective surgeries have been postponed, and there are fears of lack of sufficient intensive care units at later stages of the pandemic. The aftermaths of this additional strain on the NHS on future healthcare are addressed in an IFS briefing note published alongside this one (Propper, Stoye and Zaranko, 2020).

Recessions have been shown to have large and persistent negative effects on health and mortality at the population level. This is particularly true when long-run dynamics, spillovers and spatial effects are taken into account. Janke et al. (2020) estimate a model of the impact of economic shocks on morbidity for Britain that allows for different responses by local area, for persistence in the effect of past shocks and for feedback from national changes in levels of morbidity to the local level. They find that employment changes during and after the 2008 financial crisis had a strong adverse effect on chronic health for five broad types of health conditions, with the strongest effects being for mental health conditions.

Quantitatively, Janke et al. estimate that a 1% fall in employment leads to a 2% increase in the prevalence of chronic illness. To put this in context, if employment were to fall by the same amount as it fell in the 12 months after the 2008 crisis, around 900,000 more people of working age would be predicted to suffer from a chronic health condition. Only about half this effect will be immediate: the full effect will not be felt for two years. The shock to employment from the coronavirus pandemic is likely to be much larger than this and so we may expect a larger rise in poor health. The Janke et al. analysis looks at the prevalence of long-standing health conditions but does not examine the intensity or the duration of the condition within an individuals life course. It is quite possible that health status, outcomes and levels of functioning may well continue to deteriorate over the longer run even once the prevalence of chronic long-standing conditions has plateaued.

The Janke et al. estimate is of an average effect, across all ages, areas and income groups. In any recession, many groups will experience worse-than-average changes in economic fortunes. It is likely that the groups that suffer the biggest economic losses from this crisis are also those who were more vulnerable to begin with for example, people with lower incomes are less likely to be able to work from home or have accumulated liquid savings to tide them over. In addition, even the same change in economic fortunes may have different health consequences for different groups. Research from many fields has shown that certain individuals are more resilient to shocks than others and that there are particular periods in life where shocks are most critical for long-term outcomes. Groups of particular concern are families with young children or where mothers are pregnant, and low-income or low-socio-economic-status individuals of all ages where health vulnerabilities and mental health problems are already prevalent.

Economic shocks and downturns have been shown to be important during pregnancy and early childhood. At this point of the life cycle, physical health and cognitive trajectories are being set and this has long-reaching consequences for later-life economic outcomes and later life health. Poverty rates increase in a recession. This may feed through to negative in-utero and early-childhood risk factors. Van den Berg et al. (2006) examine the Dutch population born between 1812 and 1912 and find that the state of the business cycle at birth affects mortality: being born in a recession reduces lifespan by about 5%. This illustrates the stark and lifelong effects that early childhood conditions have on health, not just because of the biological pathways, but also as a result of the effects of in-utero and early-childhood health conditions on other economic outcomes and family behaviours.

Currie (2009) documents the extensive evidence on the links between parental circumstances and child health, as well as the subsequent link between a childs early-life health and their eventual educational and labour market outcomes. It is well documented that poor nutrition in early childhood, as well as in utero, will have a long-lasting impact on individuals, and there are many other examples where vulnerabilities and shocks in early life have long-term consequences. Hence the interaction of childrens age and their family's vulnerability will be a key point when thinking about policies to mitigate the long-run health and economic effects of the crisis.

Those with pre-existing poor mental health will also be particularly vulnerable. The adverse impact of recessions on mental health and mortality from suicide is clearly documented across a number of studies (World Health Organisation, 2011). Prevalence of mental health conditions in the UK has been rising even before the coronavirus crisis, making this a particularly important outcome to consider. Estimates drawn from Janke et al. (2020) suggest that if the economic downturn were similar to that after the 2008 financial crisis, the number of people of working age suffering from poor mental health would rise by half a million. Poor mental health and depression are also a risk factor for a number of physical health conditions (Kivimaki et al., 2018) and interventions targeting improved mental health can reduce future hospitalisation (Gruber et al., 2019). Thus the impact of the economic downturn on mental health will also affect overall long-run health and mortality through this channel. To add to this, social distancing in itself is likely to have complex and nuanced effects on individuals social isolation and mental health, which will then in turn feed through to physical health and mortality (see, for example, Shankar et al. (2011) or Steptoe et al. (2013)). These social distancing effects of the coronavirus crisis will be additional to any mental health effects that might be predicted when extrapolating from analysis of previous downturns and they are hard to predict.

Reduced economic activity as a result of a recession and the lockdown may also have some positive health impacts. Some unhealthy behaviours such as drinking, smoking and unhealthy eating have been shown to fall, on average, when there are negative income shocks (Ruhm, 2000; Adda et al., 2009; Griffith et al., 2016). Reports already show reduced levels of air pollution in the industrial areas of China and Italy as well as London, and there is a clear link between mortality from certain cardiovascular and respiratory causes and air pollution (see, for example, Janke et al. (2009)). Moreover, the rate of accidents in traffic or at work will be lower given fewer cars on the roads and reduced industrial activity. And in addition to the short-term effects of the social isolation in slowing down the spread of the coronavirus, Adda (2016) finds that economic downturns slow down the spread of viral disease as inter-regional travel and trade are reduced. Thus even after the social distancing measures have been lifted, we can expect the rate of viral transmission to be lower in an economic downturn than it would have been otherwise.

In the long run, the current economic downturn and the social distancing measures that accompany it will hit some industries more than others, and consequently some regions more than others. Janke et al. (2020) find heterogeneous morbidity responses to economic shocks across local areas. Those areas that are hit hardest are those that are the most deprived and have older populations and older industrial structures, which are precisely the kind of areas least able to withstand negative shocks.

The coronavirus crisis has the potential to create long-lasting structural changes in the UK economy. In terms of industries, travel and tourism, as well as hospitality and any non-essential retail trade, have come to a complete halt over the last couple of weeks. Areas of the UK that are disproportionately reliant on one of these sectors may see a severe collapse of activity in the local economy if recovery after the crisis is not fast enough. US studies of areas that were most exposed to structural shocks and industrial decline due to the rise of trade between the US and China have shown long-lasting and severe effects, particularly for males (Autor et al., 2016 and 2019). These shocks have fed through to mortality outcomes (Pierce and Schott, 2020). This is a specific example of how changes in economic fortunes can lead to deaths of despair, the term coined by Case and Deaton (2015 and 2017) who documented strikingly large rises in mortality associated with suicide, alcohol and drug abuse amongst low-educated white American males. The health effects of wholesale structural change, where industries are eradicated in a local area, are severe and persistent as the economic opportunities of people in these areas disappear either permanently or at least for decades.

In facing this economic downturn, government intervention will play a key role in determining the eventual health effects of the resulting recession. The government will need to decide where resources are best used. Importantly, in recent years, the UK welfare system has evolved to protect incomes through the extensive use of in-work benefits. Whilst this proved to be a positive during the 2008 financial crisis when incomes and wages fell but employment held up (see Cribb et al. (2017)), continued erosion of the value of out-of-work benefits relative to average wages leaves the system far less capable to deal with mass unemployment shocks than it was.

The Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (JRS) has a specific purpose of preserving jobs as well as incomes and is desirable in this respect (see Costa-Dias et al. (2020) for further commentary on the JRS). Obviously, within the lockdown period, most of those who do lose their jobs will find it very difficult to find new work, but the JRS should help to ensure that once the social distancing measures are lifted, more have retained their jobs and can return to work. In the absence of measures that protect employment, job separation and long spells of unemployment can lead to a loss of human capital either through depreciation in skills or a loss of firm-specific human capital that has accumulated through matching in the labour market (Fujita et al. (2020) further discuss the importance of preserving workers attachment to their current employer in the context of the coronavirus crisis). This will have long-run consequences for individuals lifetime earnings as well as affecting their financial security, sense of purpose and mental health. Thus we would also expect knock-on adverse effects on morbidity and mortality. Therefore protecting human capital and minimising unemployment consequences beyond the duration of the social distancing measures is particularly important for both the economic and health consequences of the recovery. Rebuilding lost human capital may well be much more complex than replacing the physical or financial capital that has been wiped out in the large recessions experienced recently.

The example of JRS shows that even the policies that are not directly aimed at improving health outcomes can help alleviate the eventual health consequences of the economic downturn. Thus it is important that any government action is taken with consideration for the long-term health outcomes it may affect. Different policies will help certain groups more than others, and affect their long-term health in differing ways. For example, it is clear that the long-run returns from supporting vulnerable mothers and children through this crisis will have far-reaching consequences for the outcomes of the children. But the current policies aimed at supporting furloughed workers may not do enough to reach these families. Thus any policy should come with an assessment of who it will benefit most and how the health effects may differ by cohort, prior socio-economic status and region. This will be particularly important when the government designs its policies for the removal of the social distancing measures and any subsequent reimposition of them, and then again as additional government economic support measures are phased out.

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Recessions and health: the long-term health consequences of responses to the coronavirus - - ifs.org.uk

By BITANGE NDEMOMore by this Author

We watched as China confronted the coronavirus and as it threw everything it had at the virus.

We watched as the virus escaped to Korea, then to Europe and now in the US, and as the number of infections and deaths skyrocketed in Europe.

Then we started to see African countries confirm cases. If the trend is anything to go by, then in the next two to three weeks will be our turn to suffer.

Like in the US, we thought the threat was minimal and this affected our decisiveness on response. Now, the number of infections is increasing.

It is as though this Covid-19 sends warning shots and then after 19 days, it comes with vengeance.

This, in my view, is a window that we must exploit by planning for: our homeless, food supply chains, our medical staffs protective gear, new sites for expanding hospital beds, medicines, emergency vehicles, people who rely on daily income.

Above all, we must candidly address our cultural practices on death and burial in light of this pandemic.

Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe said that Kenya has entered what is known as community infection stage, perhaps the worst stage along the continuum of infections considering that the virus can rapidly spread across the country if we fail in social distancing.

Lessons from Italy and Spain show that the only way of stopping the virus from spreading is through strict adherence to social distancing. Many countries have had to lockdown their countries as a strategy to distance themselves from mingling.

The chairman of the Council of Governors says that a total lockdown will bring misery to citizens. Others say the Governors are using the crisis as a bargaining chip to get more resources.

Either way, we are losing the valuable time to mitigate against the crisis. The more time we take to take action, the more we endanger the lives of people.

SOCIAL DISTANCINGOur context is more complicated than that of developed countries. We have more people crammed up in shanties. A quick decision to give incentives for those who can move to rural areas to do so is urgent. The more people we move from slums areas to rural areas, the better social distancing we create.

We also move the homeless to less densely populated areas, protect food supply chain companies from harassment by the police, establish a local industry to produce some hospital supplies and develop a public private partnership on emergency vehicles.

In as much as we are in a health crisis, some people must focus on the economy to fight off a possibility of economic collapse and further suffering.

Last week, McKinsey & Company published a report, Tackling Covid-19 in Africa: An unfolding health and economic crisis that demands bold action, highlighting their initial analysis of the pandemics economic impact.

Their findings show that Africas GDP growth in 2020 could reduce by 38 percentage points. The report says that in the absence of a major fiscal stimulus, the pandemic and the oil-price shock are likely to tip Africa into an economic contraction in 2020.

The report anticipates four likely scenarios for Africa. These include a scenario where the pandemic: is controlled in the near term, intensifies throughout the world, Asia, Europe and the US takes long to contain the epidemic and a significant outbreak in Africa with repercussion on the economy and lastly continued recovery in Asia, Europe and the US with significant outbreak in Africa.

GRIM PICTUREIn three of the scenarios with the exception of containment of the virus in the near term, the economies of Africa will record negative growth. Various organisations trying to model the infection trajectory paint a grim picture, with some opining that dealing with Covid-19 may take as long as 18 months.

On Kenya, the report says:

In two out of four scenarios, Kenya is facing a likely economic contraction. Under the contained outbreak scenario, GDP growth could decline from 5.2 per cent (after accounting for the 2020 locust invasion) to 1.9 percentrepresenting a reduction in GDP of $3 billion (Sh300 billion).

The biggest impacts in terms of loss to GDP are reductions in household and business spending (about 50 per cent), disruption to supply chain for key inputs in machinery and chemicals (about 30 per cent) and tourism (about 20 per cent). In scenarios in which the outbreak is not contained, Kenyas GDP growth rate could fall to -5 per cent, representing a loss to GDP of $10 billion (Sh1 trillion). As in Nigeria, disruption of consumer spend would be the biggest driver of this loss.

On the continental level, the picture isnt rosy either. Most African countries, including Kenya, are dependent on imports from, and exports to, China. Although China is back to business, the supply chains are already constrained.

To add salt to injury, oil prices have collapsed, with negative consequences on Africas oil rich countries.

Further, African oil producers largely export to China meaning that any disruption to Chinese trade will devastate countries like Nigeria, Angola, South Sudan and Eritrea.

In spite of the locust invasion and now Covid-19, Kenya must sustain its food production and horticultural exports to Europe.

Food production is the most important industry today that can provide jobs as well as income in a very difficult period.

With a projected economic downturn, a significant number of people losing jobs and others needing healthcare, it is surely our turn to suffer.

Within the small window of opportunity that we have, we must fight the pandemic by all means but also find means of tapering down our politics and dealing with our anticipated socio-economic crisis by taking bold actions.

The writer is a professor of entrepreneurship at University of Nairobis School of business.

Original post:

This virus is a robber of health and wealth - Daily Nation

By Heribert Dieter

The Covid-19 virus has hit Germany as unexpectedly as other European countries. For a few weeks, Germans thought the pandemic was an issue for Asian countries and not their own. Today, although Germany is severely affected, the situation is not nearly as dire as in Italy and Spain. Germany, with its enormous financial resources and a well-equipped medical sector, appears to be better placed than other economies to weather this storm.

One of the most striking effects of the crisis is that Chancellor Angela Merkel is experiencing a revival. The debate over her succession and the next chairman of the Christian Democratic Party have become irrelevant. Merkel is firmly in power, and her popularity is quite high. Ironically, the current crisis has been falsifying the claim she made in 2015 that the German borders cannot be protected. On 7 October 2015,she had arguedin a rare television interview that borders cannot be closed. Since 16 March 2020, the German government has implemented policies that were previously considered impossible or inappropriate.

Today, the German authorities are desperately trying to regain control over the coronavirus. These blunt measures are a reflection of the previous complacency. If the German government would have acted earlier, say in mid-February, the restrictions could have probably been less severe. The mistakes Germany made and continues to make become evident when setting Germanys experience against that of Hong Kong. Based on my own calculations, while one in 1,070 citizens in Germany is infected with the coronavirus, the number in Hong Kong is only one in 9,934 inhabitants. Why is a densely populated city-state like Hong Kong apparently more successful in addressing the coronavirus than Germany?

There are some surprising similarities between Germany and Hong Kong in the current crisis. Both are very open economies with substantial fiscal resources, which are proving quite useful today. Both are very dependent on China, if in different ways. And both economies have seen their business models weakened by the crisis. Their response to the pandemic, however, has been extremely different.

The authorities in Hong Kong have been trying to control and monitor the outbreak of the crisis. Fuelled by the experience from the SARS epidemic in 2003, the Hong Kong government quickly implemented measures to control the virus. Schools and universities were closed and now use the online teaching method, and the health authorities continue to document each individual case on several websites. Citizens can identify which train, plane or taxi an infected person has used. The government is using a supercomputer of the Hong Kong Police Force to monitor outbreaks and react against them.

While the Hong Kong government has implemented many measures to curb the spread of the virus, there has been no curfew like the kind implemented in Italy, France, Spain or Germany. From day one, many citizens of Hong Kong have been wearing face masks, which may not be very effective in preventing the user from catching the virus but is useful to curb its spread. Wearing a mask has thus become a symbol of care for others in Hong Kong, where respect for others has been an established social norm. The city has just under 1000 confirmed coronavirus cases, four of whom have died. Considering Hong Kong is a part of China and there has always been an intensive movement of people between the city and the mainland, these relatively low numbers are remarkable.

The measures taken against the coronavirus may have reduced total mortality in the city. Simply put, in 2020, ordinary influenza claimed significantly fewer lives in Hong Kong than the year before, thanks to social distancing and other measures. In 2019, the influenza season lasted 14 weeks and claimed 356 lives. In 2020, the influenza season ended after a mere five weeks, and 113 Hong Kong citizens died from influenza, about two thirds less than the year before. A positive side effect has been the reduction of admissions to intensive care units due to influenza, which dropped from 601 in 2019 to 182 in 2020. Thus, the healthcare systems capacity to handle Covid-19 cases was higher than it would have been in a regular influenza season. Dr. Joseph Tsang, an expert for infectious diseases,called the reduced influenza cases a collateral benefitfrom the coronavirus outbreak.

The contrast between Germany and Hong Kong is stark. Germans very reluctantly embraced the precautionary measures. Despite the virus wreaking havoc across the world, including in Italy, many Germans thought that Covid-19 would not severely affect them. The German government was equally reluctant in implementing comprehensive measures to stop the spread of the virus. Instead, the federal and state governments implemented what an ex-post approach, waiting until the crisis hit and infection rates skyrocketed to implement harsh measures.

To be fair, that may have been the only avenue available in a democracy in general and in Germany in particular. Policies that severely curtail the freedom of individuals are always contested, and without evidence, it is incredibly complicated to convince citizens that they should alter their behaviour. In Germany, the use of emergency acts is currently accepted by a vast majority of citizens but perhaps would not have been tolerated at the end of February. As we know from other policy domains, democracies are not very good at implementing precautionary policies.

German policymakers have continued to emphasise that the country is well-prepared for a health emergency. But this is true only on two fronts: have a good number of hospital beds and laboratory capacity. Germany currently has 28,000 intensive care beds, out of which 25,000 are equipped with ventilators. Germany has more hospital beds than most other European countries.According to World Bank data, Germany has 8.3 beds per 1000 people, while France 6.5 beds, Italy has 3.4 beds and the UK 2.8 beds. Even in the US, which has one of the most expensive health care sectors in the world, there are only 2.9 beds available per 1000 people.

The German approach can partly be explained by the confidence in the existing medical resources. But despite having many hospitals, there is a lack of necessary medical equipment such as masks.

Like most other European governments, Germany has implemented unprecedented measures to stimulate the economy and to keep businesses afloat. What sets the country apart is its fiscal muscle. After years of economic boom, high levels of taxation and restricted government expenditure, Germany can use its vast financial resources to avoid an economic collapse. In 2019, gross public debt was reduced to 59.2 percent of GDP. Somecommentators have suggestedthat saving has paid off. The debate on a possible exit from the measures adopted to curb the spread of the Covid-19 virus has continued. While it appears that the strict rules will remain in place at least until mid-April, Germany might consider a model adopted by many other countries some restrictions on public life, but a return to the workplace for a significant number of the workforce.

Indeed, estimations by some virologists appear bizarre. Lothar Wieler, head of the Robert-Koch-Institute, which advises the German government,had suggestedin mid-March that in an extreme scenario, Germany may have to remain in lockdown-mode for up to two years. Of course, the implementation of the current measures beyond April would risk the stability of many German companies and could lead to massive unemployment, widespread bankruptcies and severe political instability.

Some commentators have already criticised the harsh measures. Hans-Juergen Papier, former president of the German Constitutional Court, has warned that emergency measures do not justify the suspension of civil liberties in favour of a state of authority and surveillance. He said a curfew that has no limitation in space and time most probably represents aviolation of the German constitution. Policymakers in Germany and elsewhere must find a balance between protecting their societies as well as protecting the economy. To place the safeguard of citizens health above all other considerations is a risky strategy. Without a return to economic activity in the foreseeable future, Germany and other European countries may rapidly be exposed to severe socio-economic problems.

If Covid-19 is a severe health crisis, but not an unprecedented one, the question arises why governments all over the world, including the German one, are outbidding each other to curb the freedoms of their citizens. One reason might be the rivalry with China. The Chinese Communist Party has been trying to recover from the mistakes made in Wuhan in the early phase of the outbreak by implementing a draconian lockdown.

Today, the Chinese government is portraying itself as one of the few governments able to protect its population from the virus. Explicitly, the Chinese Communist Party has been suggesting that democratic governments are not well placed to combat a serious threat to their citizens. At the same time, policymakers in those societies want to demonstrate their ability to act forcefully, and they have used the Covid-19 crisis to do so. They have simply copied the Chinese blueprint, perhaps prematurely. The precedent set by China may have hurt the ability of politicians in Europe and North America to develop their strategies to combat the virus.

There are, however, some very optimistic observers in Germany that neither expect a lasting lockdown nor a severe effect on the economy. The Council of Economic Advisors to the government has suggested that Germany may suffer quite limited economic damage from the crisis. In a best-case scenario, they expect a drop five percent drop in GDP in 2020, which would be less severe than the contraction of the economy in 2009. Even if Germany were to stay in lockdown for seven weeks, thereduction in GDPwould be limited to six percent.

What will change is Germanys fiscal position. At the start of the current crisis, the countrys coffers have been well filled. Federal, state and social security funds aresaid to haveliquid reserves of 200 billion euros. In times of crisis, this comes in handy. The federal government has adopted a far-reaching package of measures to mitigate the consequences of the spread of the coronavirus. The cabinet initiated emergency aid for micro-enterprises and self-employed persons. Clinics and practices will be strengthened, and access to short-time work benefits simplified. And the government is helping large companies with an economic stabilisation fund.

Thatfund has three elements:

Given the uncertainty about the duration of the crisis and the severity of the economic decline, the German government has had one primary objective: to stabilise the expectation of its citizens. This goal may have been achieved for now, but any significant deterioration of the situation will alter the equation quickly.

In 2020, Europe is experiencing a problem of historic dimensions. Although there is some solidarity between member states, by and large, each country is fighting the crisis on its own. It is unrealistic to expect Europe to emerge strengthened from the Covid-19 crisis. The nation-state has been the primary source of protection and help, and the citizens of each country will remember that supranationalism, let alone multilateralism, did not provide convincing answers in the crisis.

Of course, there have been nasty episodes during the crisis, and it would be easy to point fingers at the mistakes of others. In an existential crisis, perhaps it is unavoidable for policymakers to act in the national interest. Germany is no exception. The much-criticised ban on exports of medical equipment was implemented after the German government realised that the country did not have sufficient basic equipment (sanitiser, masks) for its own medical personal.

Nevertheless, Germany is contributing significantly to the stabilisation of the European economies. The countrys solid fiscal position, a result of policies that were criticised in the past, today enables Europes largest economy to act as a significant provider of demand. Put differently, if Germany were not able to stabilise the purchasing power of its citizens and the capacity of its companies to survive the crisis, Europes prospects in a post-Covid-19 world would be much bleaker.

Surprisingly, the crisis may have some positive effects on the Germans perceptions of the existing economic and political structures. In the current crisis, the German government is mobilising resources for its citizens, who for years have been funding the state and the social security system with high taxes and high social security contributions. Today, Germans see the benefit of previous frugality. And so, while the Covid-19 crisis will take its toll, the long-term effects may not as bleak for Germany as elsewhere.

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Can Germany Weather The COVID-19 Storm More Robustly Than Other European Countries? Analysis - Eurasia Review

In the past ten days, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has addressed the nation an unprecedented four times, all about how his administration is responding to the coronavirus pandemic. In each of these addresses, the public at large has been told what they should do for the country, and not what the country will do for them.

When on March 19, Modi went live on TV at 8 pm, he asked people to observe Janata Curfew the following Sunday (March 22) and demonstrate the national zeal to defeat the pandemic through a 5 pm thali-bajao exercise. On 24 March when Modi came live, again at 8 pm, he announced a much-feared three-week nationwide lockdown, and from that very midnight. This gave a mere four hour warning, resulting in a late-night panic buying spree. Thousands caught off-guard by the lockdown, who unsurprisingly were daily wage labourers and poor working classes, were forced to pick up their kids and meagre belongings and start walking to their homes in faraway villages. Scores were subjected to exhaustion and hunger. However, in his Mann ki Baat that came a few days later, Modi merely extended an apology for the suffering heaped on the poor and the migrant workers due to the lockdown. Nothing more.

Modi came out once more to speak to the nation on April 3 and thankfully in the morning. Given the widespread criticism of what has come to be known as a #lockdownwithoutplan, the expectation this time was that he would delve into the details of preparedness essential in dealing with this difficult period. This is what leaders of other pandemic affected countries have been doing, spelling out the details and with great sensitivity too. Modis speech once again was without any details; as before he asked people to perform yet another public demonstration of their support for ongoing efforts to tackle the pandemic shine a diya, or candle, or a torchlight from their darkened homes and balconies. There appears to have been very little thought paid to the fact that this nation-wide darkening of homes could result in a grid collapse, and a possible blackout, and that this could potentially jeopardise lives of thousands relying on continuous electricity supply, especially those in critical care.

Pandemic, not politics

But such complexities have hardly been of concern to Modi. His way is to be sparing with the truth but high on hyperbole. His solutions for resolving complex problems are simple and sometimes even simplistic. But his ability to communicate in ways that is accessible to a majority of the population, relying on entreaties of sacrifice for the greater common good proclaimed as fundamentally transformative, is what Modi has done in all his speeches. He did this with demonetisation and in introducing GST, both reforms undertaken without any planning or preparation. Expectedly they have had devastating consequences on the Indian economy and on millions of lives and livelihoods.

To his advantage has been the weak and fragmented Opposition, a largely compromised media and uncritical corporates -- factors that have enabled him to carry on with a form of governance that is didactic and unapologetically explicit in promotion of majoritarian politics based on divisiveness. Such political methods have worked wonders in normative politics, indicated by the thumping majority he gained in the last general elections. Employing which he abrogated Article 370 and then enacted the highly divisive and sectarian Citizenship (Amendment) Act 2019 disregarding nation-wide protests.

The question is, can such methods work in tackling the pandemic? For dealing with a virus demands a rational approach, which is at once nuanced and scalable. With the exception of Kerala, which prepared well in advance and graded its lockdown, thus arresting the spread of the disease, the rest of the country has been caught rather unprepared. Reliance was heavy on guidance from the Centre, which has largely been reactive, down to writing manuals on how to make masks well after the lockdown was in place. A number of circulars issued by the Ministry of Health and Home Affairs, clarifying various normative aspects of lockdowns on public health grounds, is most revealing of the utter state of disaster unpreparedness.

Swallowing pride and comfort at the sudden erosion of fundamental freedoms and dignity, and dealing with a variety of police excesses, even brutality, people are still faithfully following Modis ways in dealing with the pandemic. While one hopes steps taken thus far will pay off, and that the lockdown will end as scheduled, given the woefully underprepared state of Indias health sector and extension of relief measures, the next two weeks are promising to be exceedingly long and excruciating. Every State would do their people a lot of good if they would develop a range of scenarios and be prepared in every manner necessary to deal with the worst-case scenario, i.e., massive spread in infection, high rates of morbidity and also high death rates. It is of utmost necessity that preventive, curative and relief operations are organised ground up so none is left to suffer without care, and due to lack of food, shelter and security.

This situation, in many ways, is the direct outcome of Modis style of functioning -- centralised, didactic and disempowering. While such methods may have been useful in dealing with the usual adversarial political situations, it is highly unlikely to be of any use in dealing with a viral pandemic. There is no Opposition to bait here, no legacy to attack. If mishandled, people will suffer, and millions will die. The political comfort one can draw from the fact that this is a global pandemic and so one must grin and bear, or that it has not impacted India as much as it has the rest of the world, are positions unlikely to weigh in Modis favour.

Already, news of frontline sanitary, health and police personnel getting infected due to inadequate provisioning of Personal Protective Equipment is filtering in. This is a very disturbing indicator, and does not help build public confidence in the response strategy. Instead of focusing on such crises, the narrative appears to have been deliberately shifted to communalising and criminalising victims of a disease outbreak. Such methods will only spread more fear of the disease and force massive suppression of infections, a nightmarish situation that must be avoided in dealing with a pandemic.

It is high time, therefore, that those in the Centre and state governments who really care about getting India on the right track in dealing with the pandemic, immediately focus attention on drawing from deep and extensive experiences of public health and environmental health experts in the country, and step up efforts to win the trust and build public confidence in the governments efforts. It is that collective spirit that can and will help India survive this pandemic, in bringing down the extent of suffering and much-feared socio-economic collapse.

(Leo F Saldanha works on environmental and social justice, and governance concerns through the non-profit, Environment Support Group)

The views expressed above are the authors own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.

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Has Narendra Modi lost the plot in tackling the coronavirus pandemic? - Deccan Herald

People, mostly apparel workers, headed for Dhaka crowd at a place at Uthali in Manikganj on Saturday amidst a public holiday aimed at staving off the novel coronavirus threat. New Age

I feel compelled, I feel obliged to share the insufferable experience of two friends from the past weeks the lived experience of fear of the novel coronavirus that changed their lives. One of them is an organiser of womens movement and the other is an organiser of workers movement in the apparel industrial sector. One of them is in hospital with COVID-19-like symptoms and the other is homebound with critical heart disease. Both are my dear ones. Their experiences are haunting me like trauma. However, it is important to share a few words about the current situation of apparel workers and the COVID-19 outbreak in Bangladesh before I move on to their stories.

I

LOCALLY and globally, the COVID-19 pandemic is taking a new turn every day, alongside escalating fear and uncertainty. It is signalling an economic recession and severe health insecurity. The total death toll of the pandemic has crossed over 64 thousand. On International Womens Day 2020 (March 8), the first case of COVID-19 was confirmed in Bangladesh. Since then, as of April 4, 70 are infected and eight people are dead. Developed countries in Europe and America are struggling to contain the spread of the virus.

Bangladesh, from the very beginning, has been rather laid back in responding to the crisis. From government announcements, it appeared as if nothing serious would happen. The national plan to prevent the spread of the virus including the declaration of a general holiday was rather sudden. Then began the panic buying middle-high income groups begun stockpiling three to six months worth of food supply. All educational institutions closed, government and non-government offices suspended their business activities. Ever crowded Dhaka slowly became deserted, rural areas also became desolate. The military took to the street along with the police. New forms of societal and state harassment begun. People with COVID-19-like symptoms and their families are harassed by neighbours, burials of COVID-19 victims are obstructed, workers are beaten by the police in the name of teaching social distancing and government officials are humiliating people by making them do sit-ups holding their ears for violating government directives on coronavirus prevention.

The national economy is also affected. The president of Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association in a video message called the European and American retailers to reconsider the large number of orders they cancelled and suspended so far. Labour organisations demanded that industrial owners, the government and global buyers take the responsibility of the 41 lakhs workers health safety and announce paid leave during the outbreak. Still, in the prime ministers national address on March 25, no declaration came on the question of shutting down the production line. But, an announcement came of a stimulus package of Tk 5,000 crore for export oriented industries. The following day, the president of BGMEA, instead of announcing the factories closed, personally requested owners to consider temporary factory closure. The president of Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association also made similar requests. This is how began the phase of killing time. Workers feared the contagion. They became anxious about losing jobs and their struggle for economic survival. Some factories were closed at owners will. In some places, when workers refused to work, factories were closed. This is how the ploy of keeping the factories close and open continued. And the work order cancellation by international retailers may cost the apparel sector about $3 billion.

A research of the Workers Rights Consortium shows that 10 lakh worker may lose job in the near future. Many workers are already losing job. Meanwhile, the government has extended the public holiday from April 4 to April 11. The president of the BGMEA, referring to the government, has said that factories can be opened on the conditions that the health rules are followed. In fear of losing jobs, on April 4, thousands of workers began walking to their workplaces from distant districts. On the way to work, two apparel workers were killed in a road accident in Mymensingh. This inhuman scenario shocked the nation. In the face of fierce criticism, later at night on April 4, leaders of the BGMEA and the BKMEA requested to keep the factory closed, but it was already too late.

Questions arise, who benefited from this ploy of killing time? Isnt it absolutely irresponsible that the government and the factory owners brought the workers back to factories disregarding their health safety concerns? What is the real reason behind the supposed disunity between industrial owners? Why has the prime minister remained silent on workers health issue? Why has the attention been diverted to the prime ministers address or to the BGMEAs announcement? Is it to complete pending orders, to keep the production line open? Why havent they thought of making personal protection equipment before? Why have the local and international media including the New York Times and the BGMEA been lamenting the loss that Primark, Zara and H&M incurred or may incur during this pandemic? Workers sweat and hard work brought fortune for the global buyers and local owners, and helped the country to earn 84 per cent of its export earnings. These workers are the primary capital of our national economy, of buyers and industry owners. Why such negligence towards their lives? If their health and livelihood are not protected, can the industry survive?

We could have made a historically unprecedented example by ensuring workers health security through creating an emergency fund from a share of the profit from global buyers and local industry owners, financial assistance from the government and other sources. If necessary, the government could have taken the lead in this regard. Not just because of humanity and ethics, but in the interest of industry and national economy, all three parties benefitting from this sector could have taken up a special plan to protect these workers. In this way, despite the predicted economic recession, the industry could have better managed its finances in the long run. Sadly, in our socio-economic system, it is normal that such possibilities are not considered. Instead, we are witnessing a decline in social empathy and solidarity. Society is teaching us, in this time of crisis, to selfishly stay safe, alone.

II

LETS return to the stories of my friends. I will begin with labour organiser Aminul Islam Shamas (36) story. He is a known face in industrial areas as the organising secretary of Garments Workers Solidarity. Nine years ago, because of his illness he had to leave the factories. In a complicated surgery, two of his heart-valves were replaced. Many physicians refused to do the surgery, but in 2011, Dr Prashanta Kumar Chanda of National Heart Foundation Hospital had agreed to do the surgery. Now, his valves are not functioning properly leading to breathing difficulty, cough and accumulation of water in the lungs.

Every day of the past two weeks was passed by worrying about Shamas future. On March 15, around midnight, Julhas Nayeen and I took him to the NHFH as he was having serious breathing difficulty. Physicians there told us that he has congestive heart failure. He needs immediate replacement of heart-valves. There is not enough time in hand, but there is no seat available to admit him. We need to take him somewhere there is an Intensive Care Unit or to the heart institute. By then the fear of the coronavirus has gripped the city.

After visiting another private hospital, at last, around 2:30am, we were able to admit him to the National Heart Institute. The institute had no seat in their PCCU. Shama was accommodated on a mattress laid on the floor by the bathroom. Shamas breathing difficulty intensified, he begun to vomit. The ward was already overcrowded. We started to worry. What if he catches the virus in this unsafe hospital environment? We waited until 2:00pm the next day to get him a seat. But then, to avoid the crowd, we took him to Dhaka Community Hospital at our own risk. Physicians there tried to improve his heart condition and address his breathing difficulty.

Fear has heightened at hospitals. Some hospital authorities were making announcement on PA system urging attendants to leave. A day later, they arranged for hand washing and sanitising dispenser at the entrance of the DCH. Because of Shamas condition, he needed to be in the hospital, and he urgently needed a second surgery. On the other hand, there is the risk of being infected. At DCH, number of patients begun to decline. Our fear of the virus intensified. Amid confusion and fear, instead of taking Shama to the NHFH, he was sent back to his rented home in Ashulia on March 20. We thought, in the current situation, home is the relatively safer option for him.

A few days later, Shama came to see cardiac medicine specialist, Mir Ishrakuzzaman at the NHFH. That is when we realised that the entire health system is on the verge of collapse. Security guards prevented us from entering the premise. No physician would see outdoor patients. With the help of a friend, Dr Anika Nawar, we finally managed to find the doctor. He tried to comfort Shama, gave him courage. We felt really lucky. There were not that many outdoor patients. Patients were not attended to outside of the emergency. Security guards were extra alert. The hospital authority couldnt even think of admitting new patients, let alone doing surgery. The situation appeared as if the ICU and the emergency ward may also face lockdown and the majority of the doctors will go on leave. Later, we heard, except for the emergency unit, the NHFH is under lockdown.

In this trying time, Dr Prashanta Kumar Chanda, Dr Mir Ishrakuzzaman, Dr Anika Nawar of the NHFH, Dr. Haun-ur-Rashid of Dhaka Community Hospital, Dr. Sayema Sadia in Chattogram helped in so many ways. We are immensely grateful to them. Shama and I spoke to Dr Prashanta this week. He gave us courage. We talked about the preparation for an impending surgery. But, waiting is all we could do now. Some physicians gave us hope, but some didnt want to see him again. It is because the majority of physicians are left unprotected in this time of a pandemic. There is fear, and it is justified. It is not easy to fight an invisible virus. Without access to PPE, any physician could get infected. They could spread the infection to others. Dr Abdul Wadud Chowdhury is an example. After treating a patient in Tolarbagh, he had to stay in self-isolation for 14 days with COVID-19-like symptoms.

III

NOW, the story of Mina (45), an organiser of womens movement. She is also a patient suspected of being infected with COVID-19. Since March 26, she has been admitted in a hospital designated for coronavirus treatment in Dhaka. The report of her COVID-19 test has not arrived yet, so she has been treated for pneumonia. Mina works for a private organisation with a meagre salary. Her husband is a small entrepreneur. With two of their incomes they barely manage their household. Their two daughters are students. I am left with no choice but to introduce her with a pseudonym Mina. I did so to prevent any further harassment and humiliation of her family.

On March 25, her husband Apu (pseudonym) left home with a critically ill Mina to see if he could get her admitted to a hospital. The harrowing experience of the next 13 hours, visiting from one hospital to another, 11 to be exact, is something he will never forget. We must know the backstory of Mina and Apu, or else we will not know the grave crisis that is awaiting us.

Mina has preexisting chronic condition of high blood pressure, diabetes and asthma. In past weeks, she has also developed cough, breathing difficulty and fever. In a CNG, Apu took the critically ill Mina to a nearby clinic. There they told him to take her to BIRDEM since she has high diabetics (sugar level 31). In BIRDEM, they saw it was rather deserted. Instead of treating the patient, they sent her to Dhaka Medical College Hospital.

Once arrived at DMCH, a chill went down Apus spine. As if they had arrived at a haunted place, there was no sign of the familiar hustle and bustle. In my 52 years, never have I witnessed such silence in DMCH. After buying a ticket from the emergency, they went to the ward number 512 on the 5th floor. There was not even a single patient. Just one physician and a few nurses. They provided Mina with oxygen support and nebulised her before doing an X-ray and ECG. After viewing the test reports, the physician said, Mina has excess fluid in her lung, and she is a suspected COVID-19 patient. As the DMCH does not have treatment for her, they must go to a designated hospital for treatment.

Apu took her to another hospital near their house before going to the designated hospital. There, he learnt, it will take 45 days to start treatment. Helpless, as it is, he took her to the hospital where she is now admitted. This time they were able to manage an ambulance. In the first attempt, the hospital authority said, Minas condition require ICU treatment, she should be transferred to a hospital with ICU facility. By then, the family has already visited five hospitals. The run from hospital to hospital begun, again. Mina was in an ambulance with oxygen support. They went to a hospital in Sayedabad, but they did not take her. The ambulance driver recommended a hospital in Shanir Akhra. After two hours and an X-ray, they said, For the sake of other patient, they cannot keep her there, Mina is a suspected [of corona] patient, and she needs to be taken elsewhere.

It was past midnight by then. Apu desperately took her to the IEDCR. They told him that tests are done only between 10:00am and 5:00pm. For the second time, they went to the designated hospital, and this time around, they said, Mina is a cardiac patient. They should go to the heart foundation hospital. So, they went to the NHFH. At the heart foundation emergency unit, after an ECG, they said, Heart is fine and wrote, suspected corona, immediate admission. Then, for the third time, they went back to the designated hospital. It is only after doing 11 rounds in different hospitals they were able to earn the sympathy of the physicians there. They finally admitted Mina. Apu asked, If they were going to admit her in the end, why refuse her so many times? Why such harassments? No response.

Momentarily, her family was relieved. Finally, they were able to get her admitted to a hospital. The elder daughter is staying with her mother as attendant. Physician comes once a day. But they do so from a distance, hesitate to come close. Nurses leave medicine and food by the door. Apu visits every day. From a three 9 feet distance, leaves food for their daughter, even managed a PPE for her. Minas family is still grateful to the physicians and nurses.

A day after the admission of Mina to the hospital, her family was socially harassed. The Facebook posts of Minas concerned friends come to the notice of her neighbours. By the next morning, 8am to be precise, they received eviction notice. Apu and Minas daughters got anxious. Where are they going to go? What will they manage, hospital or the landlord? A few friends spoke to the landlord and managed to stop the eviction notice. They were allowed to stay on the condition that they will follow the rules. When all these were going on, one of the nights, the designated hospital was out of syringe for insulin. They couldnt get it to Mina, even after trying for hours. This is how it is. Eight days have passed but the result of the COVID-19 test still has not arrived.

The insufferable experiences of Mina and Shama tell us that the country is awaiting a serious crisis. I know of many physicians who will work tirelessly to help patients like Mina and Shama. Until and unless, physicians and hospitals are supported with proper protection from the contagion individual commitment will not do much. Many will discourage patients needing urgent care. Stating different flimsy excuses such as, seats are there, cant admit patients, physicians are on leave, or patient will not suffer much in this condition, they will signal us their limitations. Perhaps, Shama will be able to gain some access using her organisational contacts. But, as we wait for his operation, will he be able to survive only on medication? Will he get a chance to do the second surgery? Shama or his physician, will they be able to get out of their home to reach hospital? If Mina is tested positive, what will happen to her nurse and physician? Will they go even further away? What will her neighbours do? We are all walking towards an extremely uncertain future.

A deafening siren is ringing. It is reminding us, no matter how many times we say the words like health security, nutrition, warning home quarantine, hygiene, these words only make meaning for the ruling elite. For the working class, public and private sphere are equally unsafe. Still they try their best to stay home for safety. To protect the country, its people and its economy, the government must put in its highest effort. The government must protect people from corona. It must ensure that patients with diseases other than corona are not left to die and more importantly, people are not left to starve. A united effort to tackle this emerging crisis is the demand of the time.

Taslima Akhter is the president of the Garments Workers Solidarity and photographer.

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Risk of social isolation and greater health crisis - newagebd.net

One of the catchphrases of the pandemic so far is that crises change everything. For instance, Sarah Lunnan, a spokesperson for Extinction Rebellion, remarked that everything now has changed. The Conservatives have just nationalised the economy. What we do now is very interesting. That last phrase sounds ominous to me, and Ill return to that at the end of this article.

Of course, lots will change because of the precipitous economic disruption of the shutdown. Thousands of smaller businesses are already going under and may not return, and this could rise to hundreds of thousands unless the government acts immediately to deliver on its business-support pledges. If the government fails to support businesses and workers, in the same way it has been failing with virus testing and health workers protective equipment, millions of individuals and families will endure great hardship. Many may not get their old jobs back. Over the medium term, this can be a bad or a good change, depending on the quantity and especially the quality of new post-recession job opportunities.

However, despite the changes brought about by the economic dislocations, at this stage it is likely that much economic policymaking from the past will endure. This is because crises tend to change things only to the extent to which they draw extant socio-economic features to the surface and speed up pre-existing trends.

An example from economic policy: the 2007-09 financial crisis is said to have led to the subsequent adoption of ultra-easy monetary policies quantitative easing and zero or negative official interest rates. But these measures were not qualitatively new. The secular trend of looser monetary policy originated in the 1980s, especially after the 1987 stock market crash. Since then, real official interest rates have been on a downward orientation. Even quantitative easing was not an innovation of the Western financial crash. It began at the start of the millennium in Japan, and everywhere had its roots in conventional open market operations, where central banks had traditionally bought and sold securities in the financial markets.

When it comes to Johnsonomics, too the economic policies of prime minister Boris Johnsons government the signs today suggest there will be much continuity after the pandemic is contained. Crises rarely erase the past completely, and that goes for economic policy trends. Things might change in six months time after the unpredictable impact of an even more extended lockdown. But on current projections, this crisis looks like extending existing practices and crystallising previous tendencies in economic policymaking.

This continuity overlays the different characterisations we already have about Johnsonomics. Because of the pandemic we have three so far: BC, DC, and AC before, during and after the coronavirus crisis. The BC depiction was about delivering on Johnsons levelling up mantra mainly, it seemed, through focusing economic policy on the regions outside London and the South East, especially infrastructure spending on transport and communications, and spreading out research-and-development operations.

The DC version is that this has all been overtaken. Policy has shifted to a different mode: doing whatever it takes to ensure as much of business and employment survives the lockdown recession. Although there is huge, warranted concern about the speed and the comprehensiveness of implementing chancellor Rishi Sunaks packages of financial support, there remains broad agreement that the intention of these policies is entirely justified: to preserve as much as possible of business structures and peoples incomes, so that after the crisis passes the economy is better placed to resume its activities.

Which brings us to the third phase, and what is likely to materialise in policy AC after the pandemic. To what extent will the responses to the pandemic accelerate, or possibly interrupt, or overtake pre-existing features of economic policy? Because nobody can say how deep and long the current recession will be, and since we dont know how extensive the shutting down of the country will be, nor how effective the governments compensation intentions will be, we also cant know the scale of the destruction of business operations that policy might have to respond to.

Nor can we know what political consequences might flow from the circumstances of social discontent and the much higher joblessness and increased financial hardship as a result of a prolonged, inadequately alleviated shutdown. But in the absence of an even more destructive collapse, or a lockdown-catalysed political disruption on the scale of Brexit, at least three potential policy legacies can be identified.

To help contextualise these, we should take a critical approach to the mostly spurious narratives concerning Johnsonomics. These were present before the pandemic, but have been reinforced during it.

One of the most persistent myths is that Boris Johnson is a distinctively pragmatic, non-ideological, one-nation prime minister. Boris himself peddles this idea, not least when he took a dig at his supposed ideological predecessor Margaret Thatcher, asserting that there really is such a thing as society a reversal of Thatchers often quoted and often misinterpreted 1987 comment in a Womans Own interview.

Margaret Thatcher holds a Bank of England 1 note aloft, 27 April 1979.

This notion of Johnsons pragmatism being unusual is untrue. His record of reactive muddling-through on full display during the pandemic has been pretty much the norm among Britains prime ministers ever since the late 1970s. That was when bi-partisan, postwar, mixed-economy Keynesianism was abandoned. Until then, governments shared the economic objective of boosting growth and minimising unemployment. Ever since, economic policy has instead mainly reacted to things when they happen, guided mostly by the shared perspective of seeking to preserve what exists a case of small c conservatism. That tradition includes not just Tory leaders since the 1980s, but Labour ones, too.

Contrary to conventional portraits, it also includes Margaret Thatchers decade of premiership. Her image as a so-called neoliberal ideologue, was pushed especially by the left after she stepped down. And it is entirely bogus. Her policies were less ideologically driven and more a response to particular practical needs. For instance, her supposed hallmark policy of privatisation did not originate out of some ideological zeal of hers. It began under Jim Callaghans Labour government, when it sold off a chunk of its British Petroleum shares in 1977. Privatisation didnt even feature in Thatchers 1979 election manifesto, and took off only in her second term, primarily as a way to raise funds for financing public spending, and to keep debt off the governments books.

The muddling-through response to Covid-19 by this government is therefore characteristic of the conservative pragmatism of other recent governments. Perpetuating this style of governance fosters a short-termist, reactive form of policymaking that is often unequal to the challenges of modern life. Policy myopia isnt the only reason the government appears to have failed in its contingency planning for an epidemic, but it is certainly consistent with it. It contributes to this odd governmental dichotomy between anticipating worst-case disasters in the future, yet avoiding diligent crisis planning in the present.

An even more delusional narrative is that under Johnson the Tories have succumbed to the leftist idea that the state is better than the market. Ever since Decembers General Election, Panglossian Labour Party supporters have claimed their party may have lost the election due to unusual temporary factors, but that it had won the intellectual argument over the merits of state intervention.

The pandemic response has also reinforced this narrative. As Labours former leader Jeremy Corbyn opined last week: I didnt think it would only take three months for me to be proved absolutely right. In response to that, we might just say, dream on, Jeremy. However, we should recognise this mythical narrative has resonance especially among some young people, and may survive this pandemic.

The answer to this Labourist escapism brings us to another, and much more common myth, about Johnsonomics: that it is defined by a revival of the big state. Sunaks rhetorical responses to the pandemic notwithstanding being mostly unfulfilled so far seem to illustrate this in spades. But the idea that either BC or DC Johnsonomics is characterised by the return of economic statism is misleading. Not only is the Johnson government not enacting an alternative Labour Party agenda; more pertinently, it is also entirely consistent with the tradition of Conservative parties, as with Christian Democrat parties in Europe, and US Republican parties. These right-wing parties have generally been economic interventionist throughout their existence. Not out of ideology, but out of necessity. Their mature economies have needed state intervention to keep going.

Ever since the late 19th century, governments across advanced industrial countries have relied on the state to help support their economies through good times and bad. Indeed, since the end of the postwar boom, increasing state economic intervention has been the norm under governments of all stripes.

Initially, in the 1970s, state regulation and intervention was used to counter the effects of the generalised economic crises. When this endeavour failed, with the onset of stagflation, governments mainly sought to conserve their economies as much as possible. This was only partially successful, as it accompanied steadily falling business-investment levels, lower rates of productivity growth, and rising government spending, financed not from inadequate tax revenues but by expanding state debt. All these features built up bigger problems for the future. Nevertheless, the resilience of state-supported capitalism has been striking.

Johnsonomics is a break from the past four decades of state intervention only insofar as it is continuing intervention in a much more overt and unabashed way. And even that is not entirely new. Ever since the Western financial crash, the mainstream calls for economically activist governments have been getting louder. As many started to recognise the absence of economic recovery, the need for stronger government interventions has been more openly discussed. The shock of the 2016 popular votes for Trump and Brexit added to this push for more shameless state-economic measures. The rhetoric of small or minimal statism has had an increasingly small and minimal following.

The post-2008 experiences have led to a rising clamour for governments to adopt a more coordinated mode of state intervention, combining vigorous fiscal policies with ultra-loose monetary policies that, although irreversible, were plainly ineffective in reviving growth. For years, many former and even incumbent central bankers have been demanding that governments recognise that monetary policy cannot be expected to be the only game in town: fiscal activism was required merely to stabilise the economy.

Similarly, since the financial crisis the notion of state-industrial policies has made a comeback in many advanced countries. Public-infrastructure investment, in particular, has assumed an increased significance as a means to stimulate some economic activity, and benefit the so-called left behinds. Although governments, not least in Britain, have been slow to translate fine-sounding industrial-strategy documents into meaningful practices, this rehabilitation of industrial policies long preceded Johnson taking over as prime minister.

The openly interventionist course flagged up by the Johnson administration is thus neither a break from British practice, nor is it uniquely British. It follows similar patterns in other advanced countries a bit slower than Japan and the US, and a bit ahead of most Western European countries, especially Germany. Though, with the pandemic, it is symptomatic that even constitutionally balanced budget Germany has now launched a huge fiscal intervention amounting to over 350 billion so far or about 10 per cent of its annual output. This would have been unthinkable just weeks ago.

People queue to shop at Sainsbury's supermarket on 19 March 2020 in Northwich, UK.

State activism, with governments brazenly playing a bigger economic role again, is the first legacy we can anticipate from the pandemic. It will inform not just Johnsonomics but the approach to economic policy in many developed countries. In effect, treasury and finance ministers are asking us to forget everything they told us about public debt being an anathema, an abomination. Instead, they now contend that we have to spend to sustain the economy during this pandemic, be it printing money or borrowing funds. Now this Rubicon has been crossed, it will be very difficult for governments to turn back again over the medium term.

But this embrace of state interventionism, complete with vigorous fiscal policies, will not be sufficient to revive the economy. Recall that Japan entered its secular stagnation earlier than other industrialised countries after its financial crash in the early 1990s. It has been running a continuous fiscal stimulus ever since. Average annual public deficits of more than five per cent have left it with a national debt of about 240 per cent of GDP but, tellingly, it is still stuck in depression.

A big reason for this is that by propping up its sclerotic economy, a lot of this extra state spending has been increasing corporate dependency on the state. This applies not just to Japan, where the concept of zombie businesses originated, but also across the industrialised world. The wider apparatus of corporate welfare points to the way established businesses rely on state operations for a lot of their income, especially on public-sector orders and contracts, and on state subsidies of multiple types. In effect, many businesses no longer operate within the realm of market competition.

With the pandemic now justifying governments, not least Johnsons, undisguised economic activism, we are now seeing businesses blatantly seeking state support. This was something that in earlier times would have been done less boldly. But with businesses now falling over themselves seeking government help to survive, few even pretend to preach the virtues of the free market and free competition.

Indeed, one form competitive rivalry takes today is the sequencing in which firms request state aid. Holding back until other businesses in their sector have made their pleas to the treasury is a way to put their own rescues in a better light. We could have coped on our own, they protest, but once others got state help we needed to join them in the interests of a level playing field. That seems to be the stance taken in the aviation industry, as Ryanair and British Airways let others, like Loganair and Virgin Atlantic, put out their begging bowls first.

One potential consequence of increased economic interventionism through the pandemic is that as corporate dependency widens, then industrial concentration and sectoral stasis extends. This is what has happened in the banking sector after the financial crisis. Despite the official goal of encouraging new challenger banks, only a few of these have thrived.

Though it is mostly not deliberate, government efforts to sustain the economy tend to favour already established incumbent businesses. This is not just because they are regarded collectively as too important to fail, but also because the rules-based conditions that accompany business subsidies are much harder, and often impossible, for startups and loss-making scale-ups to meet. There is much evidence so far, during this crisis, of the difficulties young, ambitious, yet almost inevitably unprofitable firms are having when trying to prove their commercial viability to the intermediary banks that provide the governments emergency loans and grants.

Overall, buying economic survival, DC and AC, through closer public-private linkages, is likely to reinforce corporate welfare, and help sustain parastatal companies, thereby prolonging the Long Depression. Thus todays disaster prevention measures from Johnsonomics could well consolidate a less furtive but still stultifying economic interventionism.

The second, and potentially more dangerous legacy that could follow on from the first, is the greater acceptance not just of state intervention, but also of the national protectionism that this usually entails. Im not suggesting the pandemic implies the disappearance of the International Monetary Fund, or the collapse of the European Union (EU), or in general the demise of global governance. On the contrary, being a global virus, espousers of globalism are using the pandemic to justify the need for more globalist institutions and practices. The customary refrain is global problems need global solutions. But in practice during the pandemic, existing international arrangements are more clearly reflecting the national interests of their leading members, be they those of the US, Germany or France.

Maybe the existing divisions and fragilities of the eurozone and the wider EU will break more into the open because of the pandemic, though that probably depends on some progressive populist revolt breaking through, on a par with Britains Brexit vote. However, without that, we are already seeing the unashamed pursuit of national protectionist policies, not just in Germany and France, but also in Britain and the US.

The pandemic has already heightened anxieties in some quarters about national self-sufficiency, from the shortages of healthcare items and protective equipment, to foodstuffs and even prospective vaccines. This prompts the danger of galvanising narrow protectionist policies that could aggravate existing international tensions. And thats without exploring the way the pandemic is already fuelling anti-Chinese sentiments in the West, with Johnsons government reportedly joining Trump in declaring there needs to be a reckoning with China over the spread of the virus.

The area outside the Bank of England on 24 March 2020 in London.

A third potential legacy for post-pandemic economic policy is the reinforcement of regulation aimed at achieving so-called sustainable, responsible, stakeholder or caring capitalism. Again this is not out of the blue. It follows a decade and more of increasingly virulent business-bashing, not just from corporate-governance campaigners, but also from within governments, and within business itself. In response to the economys shutdown, there is already plenty of discussion about holding businesses to account for how they responded. Which were the villains? Did companies recently pay dividends to their shareholders (as if this is a heinous practice, even though dividends pay a good chunk of peoples pensions)? How did they treat their workers and their freelance contractors?

Some corporate deeds during the crisis, in particular badly treating their workers, or hiking prices to consumers, are genuinely serious matters and should be pursued by all of us, DC and AC. Profiteering through a crisis, if the allegations prove true, is reprehensible.

But there is also a danger here of buck-passing by politicians, who would be better occupied holding their elected government to account for what they did, or failed to do, BC and DC. If, on the basis of disreputable practices by a few business leaders, Johnsonomic policies regulate deeper into businesses so-called social responsibilities, it could be bad for business, bad for government accountability, and bad for democracy.

These dangers are especially acute if the restrictive policies for dealing with this health catastrophe are then extended without full and proper political debate and accountability into other areas that are likely to damage economic growth and prosperity. As alluded to at the start, proponents of tougher environmental policies have already been using the pandemic to assert that the battle after Covid-19 needs to be extended to fight carbon emissions. Already much effort is going into linking coronavirus to climate change, claiming that humans messing with nature causes them both.

For instance, Inger Andersen, the United Nations environment chief, claims that nature is sending us a message, both with coronavirus and with ongoing weather disturbances. Andersen argues that humanity is placing too many pressures on the natural world with damaging consequences, and warned that failing to take care of the planet meant not taking care of ourselves: Our health entirely depends on the climate and the other organisms we share the planet with.

Others talk of the pandemic as a unique opportunity to resolve a triple crisis: health, economic and environmental. Similarly, the Planetary Emergency Partnership, which is aligned with the Club of Rome, protests that Covid-19 reveals we are one humanity living on one planet, and that this planet is in the midst of a deeper and longer-term crisis of climate change and biodiversity loss. Accordingly, the Partnership is calling for post-pandemic economic recovery plans to prioritise the health of the planet as synonymous with the health of the people.

Such propositions draw out one of the dangers of the overblown analogy between containing Covid-19 and fighting a world war. Engaging in life-and-death contests with other countries can require the government to take abrupt and sometimes illiberal actions without being able to seek mandates from the electorate. Most people accept the temporary waiving of democratic approval during war.

The problem is that the analogy with wartime is being extended not just to the battle to overcome Covid-19, but to longer-term issues, too. For instance, people may, or may not, agree that there is a climate emergency. But what is an emergency for our democracy is if the pandemic is used to normalise emergency policies that entrench restrictions on economic growth, without prior extensive public discussion and authorisation.

We are in the midst of a severe man-made economic collapse, which arises from putting the response to the pandemic above other considerations. Thats a legitimate stance for government to take. A bigger danger is that post-pandemic economic policies take this as a precedent for putting other objectives propping up the zombie economy, national self-sufficiency, regulating business behaviours, or reducing carbon emissions above other considerations, without real public deliberation and examination.

If this happens, it could extend and deepen the pre-existing chronic economic condition. This would have more serious long-term implications for growth and prosperity than todays self-generated acute recession. That is not a trajectory we should slip into under the pretext that there is no alternative, and that, just as with Covid-19, something must be done. This applies especially to AC Johnsonomics. Now, as ever, we require and should demand genuine public discussion over the pros and cons of post-pandemic economic activism.

Phil Mullans new book, Beyond Confrontation: Globalists, Nationalists and Their Discontents, will be published by Emerald Publishing later this year.

All pictures by: Getty Images.

To enquire about republishing spikeds content, a right to reply or to request a correction, please contact the managing editor, Viv Regan.

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After the pandemic: whither capitalism? - Spiked

While Malaysia will not be spared from the global growth contraction this year due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the central bank is confident that the Malaysian economy can weather the challenges.

BANK Negara has some good news and bad news on the economy in 2020.

In its latest Economic and Monetary Review 2019 report, the central bank has warned that Malaysia will not be spared from the global growth contraction this year as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic.

While governor Datuk Nor Shamsiah Mohd Yunus has carefully avoided the usage of the word recession for Malaysia, Bank Negaras official forecast points towards an economic growth in the range of -2% to 0.5%.

Output is expected to decline across all sectors, except for services, although it is forecast to witness a much slower growth.

The economic growth would be weighed down by the output loss from Covid-19, the movement control order (MCO) as well as the disruption in the commodity supply.

Nor Shamsiah: The central bank has a broad range of policy instruments at its disposal to ensure monetary and financial stability.

Meanwhile, with demand expected to remain subdued amid the low global oil prices, the countrys headline inflation rate is estimated to average between -1.5% and 0.5% this year.

This means that the country faces a potential twin threat - recession and deflation - if the economy contracts and the consumer price index declines this year.

To be sure, Malaysia has never encountered deflation on a full-year basis, even when the countrys real gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 1.5% in 2009,7.4% in 1998 and 1% in 1985.

A deflationary pressure, if it turns severe, could further exacerbate the impact of a recession and delay the rebound in economic growth.

Another key concern highlighted in the Economic and Monetary Review 2019 report is the impact on export performance.

Bank Negara expects Malaysias exports to tumble by 13.6% in 2020 due to the weak external demand, as key trading partners of the country experience production interruptions following the Covid-19 pandemic.

For perspective, Malaysias exports declined by 1.1% last year.

Meanwhile, the countrys current account balance - while expected to remain in surplus - is forecast to narrow to 1% to 2% in 2020, down from 3.3% in 2019.

As the private sector takes a major hit due to the business shutdown in response to the worsening virus outbreak, the labour market is also likely to be impacted.

Bank Negara foresees a rise in the unemployment rate to 4% or 629,000 individuals this year, up from 3.3% in 2019.

In comparison, during the global financial crisis, the countrys unemployment rate was at 3.7% in 2009, while during the Asian financial crisis in 1998, the unemployment rate was at 3.2%.

The world, including Malaysia, is currently in uncharted territories as the global economy is hammered by a pandemic-induced slowdown.

It is, hence, crucial to understand that any forecast by Bank Negara or other experts will largely depend on how fast the world can solve the virus outbreak.

A prolonged pandemic could further weigh down the economy and result in a worse-than-expected performance. This includes Bank Negaras projections.

For now, the prospects for both advanced and emerging economies are deteriorating as the pandemic escalates.

The International Monetary Fund has recently warned that a global recession in 2020 will be at least as bad as during the 2008-2009 global financial crisis or worse, although it said that a recovery is expected in 2021.

The good news

On the domestic front, Nor Shamsiah is confident that the Malaysian economy can weather the current challenges and emerge stronger.

She adds that the central bank has a broad range of policy instruments at its disposal to ensure monetary and financial stability.

We have done it before in handling the previous crises. We can definitely do it again, she said during a virtual press conference on April 3.

Despite the headwinds, Nor Shamsiah points out that there are several key catalysts that will support the countrys economic growth in 2020.

These include the governments RM250bil economic stimulus package, Bank Negaras move to cut the overnight policy rate, the continued progress of public projects, as well as the higher public-sector expenditure.

She says the governments stimulus package alone is estimated to add 2.8 percentage points to the GDP growth in 2020.

Pakej Rangsangan Ekonomi Prihatin Rakyat 2020 will cushion the impact on households and businesses, she says.

Meanwhile, continuation of large-scale infrastructure projects will provide additional lift to growth.

Capital spending for major transport infrastructure projects of about RM15bil is expected to lift 2020 GDP growth by 1 percentage point, says Nor Shamsiah.

A key takeaway from the press conference is Nor Shamsiahs assurance that the current slowdown will not result in a banking crisis.

Being the bedrock of the economy, a collapse in the banking sector would trigger a systemic crisis that will affect other sectors in the economy.

The financial system is well positioned to support the economy, given the strong buffers built up over the years.

Banks have strong capital positions, with a total capital ratio of 18.4% as of February 2020 as compared to 12.6% in 2008. The excess capital buffers as of February 2020 is RM121bil as compared to RM39bil in 2008, says Nor Shamsiah.

She also points out that the Malaysian financial system has ample liquidity buffers. As of February 2020, the liquidity coverage ratio stood at 148%, up from an average of 137% in the 2015-to-2019 period.

In addition, adequate provisions have also been set aside.

The industrys loan loss coverage ratio was 125% as of February 2020, as compared to an average of 120% for the 2015-to-2019 period.

Our stress tests affirm the resilience of the financial system even under severe economic conditions. Capital buffers are sufficient to absorb potential losses, according to Nor Shamsiah.

The governor says that private consumption will continue to anchor domestic economic growth, even though it is expected to expand at a slower pace of 4.2% in 2020 as compared to 7.6% in 2019 and 8% in 2018.

Nor Shamsiah believes that the economy could see a recovery by the second half of this year, followed by a stronger growth in 2021.

What the experts think

Speaking to StarBizWeek, AmBank Group chief economist Anthony Dass says the probability of a full-fledged recession in 2020 is 40%, with room to be either upgraded or downgraded.

For the economy to dip into full recession mode, which we project at -1.1%, much will depend on how long the lockdown will be, the outlook of the commodity prices that has taken a hit, the risk of global liquidity crunch and domestic overall confidence, especially with rising unemployment that will dampen spending which in turn will impact business sales revenue.

Hence, avoiding falling into a full-fledged recession could be mitigated if the stimulus measures are implemented fast with improved engagement between the policy-makers and business communities, he says.

On price pressures, Dass says that deflationary risk cannot be ruled out.

According to him, the collapse in inflation expectations across many major economies including Malaysia is being stoked by the huge drop in oil prices to about US$30 per barrel and excess capacity from the virus impact and rising unemployment which will weaken demand.

The risk of falling into deflation depends on how policy-makers respond to the coronavirus outbreak. Our inflation outlook is 0.3% with the downside at -1.5%, says Dass.

On the other hand, Alliance Bank chief economist Manokaran Mottain does not expect deflation to kick in this year. He forecasts a mild inflation of 0.5% in 2020.

Despite falling oil prices coupled with weaker demand, in the first two months of 2020, we are experiencing 1.6% and 1.3% solid inflation, due to a low base effect last year, and we expect that with the renegotiation of Opec+, with the support of the US president to cut oil production, oil prices will rebound eventually, maybe during the second half of the year, he says.

Meanwhile, Socio-Economic Research Centre executive director Lee Heng Guie says that it would take at least six to 12 months from containment, stabilisation and recovery before people and businesses return to normalcy.

Even after the MCO is lifted, we expect continued stricter physical procedures and measures, including social distancing at public places.

We are pinning hope that the sizeable cash handouts and cash-flow cushion provided to the households would help to release pent-up consumer spending when the virus outbreak stabilises and sentiment improves, and hence, help to generate domestic demand, he says.

On the issue of unemployment, Lee says the jobless rate could rise higher than the projected 4% or 629,000 persons this year.

Higher retrenchments would weigh on consumer spending. The biggest worry is that those who are affected by a paycut or got retrenched during the six-month moratorium on loan facilities could face cash-flow problems to resume their loan repayment after the expiry of the moratorium period, he says.

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Bank Negara's good and bad news - The Star Online

We are living in an intense time a time when major public policy failures and social inequality are revealing themselves after being hidden by a seemingly strong economy.

Over the last few years, record low levels of unemployment and a booming stock market helped conceal the still weak levels of household wealth, public infrastructure, and overall socio-economic fragility of most Americans. The coronavirus crisis is now laying those failures bare.

Many analysts failed to recognize that though the economy had been in recovery for nearly 10 years, most Americans have less wealth now than they did before the Great Recession. From 2007 to2016, median white families lost over $11,000. Black and Latino families lost abouthalf of their total net worth.

The coronavirus crisis is also showing that the problem goes beyond individual assets. Our weak public health, education, child care, and unemployment benefits, among other things, left the nation one crisis away from bringing down the entire economy.

That crisis has arrived.

Take the example of school closures. Since March 12, local and state governments have been closing school districts to limit the spread and speed of Covid-19. There are now nearly40 million public schoolstudentswho are home from school.

School closures were an essential and vital public health decision. Still, theyve shown that schools were an underappreciated foundation for our economy and peoples daily lives.

For workers with children, shutting down public schools with little to no other public support to replace this loss means at best a radical change of trying to work from home, teach from home, and provide child care all at the same time. At worst, it means sacrificing pay and possibly your job to care for your children as the country heads into recession.

Its important we realize how this virus hasnt just created new problems, as Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez recently explained, but poured gasoline on the crises weve long had. Its okay if you didnt see the extreme urgency of these crises before, she added. But I hope you dont unsee them later.

The old saying of an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure is more relevant than ever as the country prepares to spend trillions on the coronavirus crisis. Now is the time to recognize well never beat a global pandemic and recession without strong mechanisms to deal with social inequality and the public good.

Now is the time to invest the trillions that have been made available by this crisis into a new 21st-century public infrastructure. The need for this investment has long been recognized from Franklin D. Roosevelts call for anEconomic Bill of Rightsto the civil rights movements1967 Freedom Budget but never realized.

One way or another, the United States will withstand the coronavirus. But the public in the wealthiest nation in the world cannot continue to be one crisis away from economic collapse.

Dedrick Asante-Muhammad is the chief of Race, Wealth, and Community at the National Community Reinvestment Coalition (NCRC). Anneliese Lederer is the director of Fair Lending and Consumer Protection at NCRC.

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It Was Never a Strong Economy For the Working Poor. Now's the Time to Change That. - FlaglerLive.com

Its becoming increasingly difficult for the public to have full confidence in the authorities managing this present crisis. The NSW Chief Health Officer says that the Ruby Princess was low risk when we all knew the very high risk from previous incidents with cruise ships. This contradicts protocol and the earlier quarantining of overseas arrivals on Christmas Island and other locations. Vanessa Tennent, Oatley

Illustration: John ShakespeareCredit:

When the history of the COVID-19 outbreak in Australia is written, March 19 will go down as the day on which the opportunity to bring the outbreak under control was lost.

The name Ruby Princess, and that of its captain and whoever in NSW Health made the decision to allow 2700 passengers to disembark and disperse across the country and overseas will go down in infamy. Heads shouldnt just roll over this debacle. People should go to jail.Malcolm McEwen, North Turramurra

Not sure what your correspondent David Atherfold needs to do to get sent to Manus Island, but it looks like arriving by boat no longer does the trick, even if coronavirus-infected passengers are on board (Letters, March 25). Steve Cornelius, Brookvale

Imagine making stopping boats the centrepiece of your entire political platform for 10 years, and then failing to stop the one boat that actually mattered. What a Ruby Princess you are. Yen Heng, Wahroonga

Though we are all meant to pull together to get through the crisis there are some groups who will try to take advantage of the situation (''Independent schools my ask for more funding'', March 25).As the president of the NSW Teachers Federation says some public schools are still short of basic hygiene products.

If the government can find more money for schools then helping public school students access online learning when they have no computers or internet connection at home should be a top priority. I cant see a valid case for even more money to be given to private schools. Judy Sherrington, Kensington

If the Association of Independent Schools in NSW believe that they are entitled to yet more public funding they need to open their finances to public scrutiny and justify their claim. In the meantime do what any other business would do and look at the fees and costs, and delay capital spending where possible. They can also examine the key messages of the religion to which they are affiliated and consider whether shamelessly gouging more funding from an already strained public purse is consistent with their religion. John Whiteing, Willoughby

I do not want my taxes to go to independent schools. I want it to go to public schools because they cater to pupils from all socio-economic levels; the unemployed who will struggle to put a roof over their heads and put food on the table; and hospitals in need of life saving equipment, additional intensive care units and beds. Lets strengthen the public school system. Jill Phillips, Ettalong Beach

Mixed messages on the role of schools has caused unnecessary uncertainty for parents, teachers and students and has significantly undermined the governments' messaging (''Parents stay positive as nation's living rooms become classrooms'', March 25). The reality is clear. The role of schools to provide excellent education for our kids is unchanged. Kids can attend school either in person or online. The focus of resources and communication should be on making school premises safe for teachers and students and for transfer to innovative online education for kids who stay at home. David Hind, Neutral Bay

High school students do not need constant parental supervision, so high schools should close immediately. There could be a skeleton roster of primary school teachers to be on supervision for those primary age children who need to attend. The NSW Department of Education already has comprehensive Distance Education programs for all subjects. Utilise these resources and send hard copies to those students who do not have access to adequate technologies. Jenny Baker, North Bondi

Once again, Scott Morrison has failed the Australian people ("Hardline lockdown to last for months", March 25). His wishy washy, daggy dad, homespun excuses for the inadequate measures he has announced do not constitute leadership. He obviously doesn't know Australians very well. They'll do whatever they can get away with. The only way to get many of them to follow orders is to lock them down in their homes as Boris Johnson has done in the UK, and have the police and army enforce the lockdown.

It's now up to Victorian Premier Dan Andrews and NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian to show true leadership and to make this difficult but necessary decision. In a week (or maybe less) we'll need to do it anyway, with not much further damage economically, but with huge costs to the health of many, especially our frontline healthcare workers. Those who are a few weeks ahead of us in this crisis (Italy, USA) are wishing they had acted sooner and harder. It's now up to NSW and Victoria to lead the way. Pam Timms, Suffolk Park

It seems clear that Scott Morrison is more concerned about the economic impact of his actions rather than the health impact every single job is essential. All his actions to date have been to limit the economic impact in the next month or quarter.

But the full impact needs to be measured over the complete life of the crisis. More economic pain now may mean that the crisis is not as prolonged, and the total impact is less. But maybe our superior economic managers were away the day they taught that. David Rush, Lawson

Woe is us, misfortune upon calamity. To be cursed with a mean and muddle-headed Coalition government in office when the nature of the health and socioeconomic disaster about to befall us cries out for a Labor Party with a commitment to social welfare and the people's wellbeing running in its veins. Karen Coleman, Waterloo

The incremetalism and indecision that has characterised this Prime Minister's approach to drought, bushfires and climate change is repeating itself with this current crisis. Despite constant warnings from doctors and pleas for an urgent total lockdown to save lives, the need for critical leadership from this government has again failed to materialise.

Their willingness to repeatedly ignore the science will surely cost more lives and prolong the economic and social agony for many Australians, pain that could arguably have been avoided. Simon Wright, Orange

Efforts to ensure social distancing are widespread, but little has been attempted to include public transport. I suggest that peak travel congestion could be considerably reduced, allowing more distancing, if widely staggered operating hours were required in major cities. This could be done if blocks of similar industries all adopted the same schedules (eg: all banks to open from say 11am, all insurance companies from say 8am.) Such a measure could be better than more people losing their jobs. Richard Manuell, Frenchs Forest

To help prevent transmission of coronavirus, why arent all retail workers required to wear disposable gloves when exchanging cash and goods with customers? Rob Baveystock, Naremburn

Maximum five at a wedding. Maximum 10 at boot camp training. An opportunity for personal trainer celebrants? Ian Waters, Surry Hills

Illustration: Matt GoldingCredit:

As a senior person living in regional NSW, I have often looked at supermarkets and petrol stations and wondered what would happen if the supply chain failed ("Law essential to maintain supplies: ports", March 25). I am now seeing it in real life. In the current crisis we hope that our supplies will last and be restocked but what about our imports and our reliance on global suppliers. Without blaming any political party, as they have both contributed, this will also be a good learning experience and rekindling the economic ideals of self-sufficiency need to be part of economic policy. Robert Mulas, Corlette

If we had decent NBN, Foxtel would have disappeared from the planet long ago ("Rupert Murdoch's Foxtel could become a sports casualty", March 25). With all of the streaming services, one wonders why would Telstra pitch in millions of dollars to rescue the dead horse Fox Sports? Mukul Desai, Hunters Hill

With months stretching ahead with no sport can we persuade TV stations to replay grand finals both NRL and AFL from as far back as they have them. We could all get a laugh at the changing fashions, an insight into the changing rules, and unless we look up the result or it was a very memorable match for us there may be the excitement of not knowing who will win. Anne Stearman, Downer ACT

Tell him hes dreamin (Trump wants US economy to re-open by Easter as coronavirus cases grow, March 25). Sue Dyer, Downer ACT

Many health and medical professionals are demanding Australia do more widespread testing for COVID-19. They seem to be ignorant of the fact that we are already doing more testing than any other country in the world except South Korea the gold standard for testing. And we are not far behind South Korea. The Australian Health Protection Principal Committee reported on March 22 that we had done 123,000 tests and South Korea had done 282,555 tests. Adjusting for population size, our rate of 480 tests per 100,000 is only marginally lower than South Koreas 549 per 100,000. Check the facts before criticising the decision-makers. Robert Cumming, Professor of Epidemiology, University of Sydney

Confidence in superannuation may be lower now than during the long positive run weve had, but how much money would most people have put away voluntarily without compulsory superannuation (Letters, March 25)? Ninety per cent of something is vastly better than 100 per cent of nothing. Luke Crosthwaite, Talgarno

With all this broadcasting from peoples homes lately, I cant help but be struck by the absence of colour of the walls (''Yes, we're judging you'', March 25).

Whenever I see these broadcasts I feel like Im viewing a doctor's waiting room. Where is the warmth, the cozyness, the homeliness? Where is the colour? A nice deep red, yellow or teal? I didnt realise all Australians take their inspiration from the same colour chart. Benjamin Rushton, Birchgrove

I advise that in no Star Trek episode did anyone say, "It's life, [anyone], but not as we know it" (Letters, March 24). The closest that I can find is: "At least, no life as we know it". Furthermore, Kirk never said, "Beam me up, Scotty"; he said, "Scotty, beam me up". I know; I have better things to do than recall old Star Trek episodes. Dave Horsfall, North Gosford

Speaking of depressing good reading, try Hell Ship by Michael Veitch: the true story of the plague ship Ticonderoga. Worse than any cruise ship! Ian Ferrier, Paddington

Lionel Shrivers novel The Mandibles: A Family 2029-2047 should also go on the plague reading list. It tells the story of an extended familys experiences during the economic and societal collapse of America and will also give you a good back story to the value of toilet paper. Kerrie Walshaw, Bundeena

And then there is the great classic of Italian literature, I Promessi Sposi, The Betrothed, by Alessandro Manzoni, which is set in the late 1620s and was written in the early 1800s. It describes the terrible impacts of the plague across the country north-east of Milan towards Bergamo, which is the area of Italy worst affected by the present infectious scourge. David Stewart, Newcastle East

Hi to Sue Humphreys (Letters, March 25). And hi every morning. Graham Russell, Clovelly

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Accountability needed over failure to stop the boat - Sydney Morning Herald

From our ObsessionGlobal Economic Disruptions

Globalization, automation, and inequalityoh my!

About a decade agolong before the word Brexit entered the popular vernacularit seemed like the European project was on the brink of collapse.

Between 2009 and 2013, Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain (a group derisively known as the PIIGS) were in danger of defaulting on their sovereign debt, and of bringing other Eurozone countries down with them. The EU and the IMF bailed out Greece, Ireland, and Portugal, ushering in an era of economic austerity that wrought wide-ranging social and political consequences. One result was that many workers, especially the young, left in search of better economic opportunity elsewhere.

Now, many of the Southern European nations hurt bythis so-calledbrain drain are implementing policies to incentivize their citizens to come home. From tax relief to wage subsidies, these countries have one message for those who left: You can come back now. But will they?

In 2010, 5.8% of Europeans with a college degree left their home country. Economic need largely motivated them. Workers were fleeing high unemployment, low wages, and poor living standards.

At the same time, in Central and European states, the debt crisis accelerated a trend that began in the mid- to late-2000s, when countries like Bulgaria and Latvia joined the European Union and, later, the Schengen area, which allows for the free movement of labor. People in these countries could suddenly settle and work anywhere in the EU, and they did, going to places where there were more higher-paying jobs, especially for young people.

This depleted the young worker population in the region. According to a report by the European Commission (p. 9), if current emigration trends remained the same, the population of Romania would decrease by 30%, from 19.9 million in 2015 to 13.8 million in 2060. But if Romania wasnt an EU member state, and its people didnt have the freedom to move around the EU, the loss would be only 14%.

These countries can ill-afford to lose their best and brightest. Across Europe, populations are aging and fertility is down, leading to what some have called a demographic time-bomb (paywall).

Southern Europes fertility rate is one of the lowest in the world, at 1.37 child per woman, well below the population replacement level. Immigrants from poorer EU countries could help offset this loss. But there is no such option for Eastern and Central European states, where fertility is higher but emigration more dramatic. Because workers who emigrate tend to be younger, these countries are left with a reduced population and an aging workforce, which leads to lower productive potential and accelerated population aging, according to the European Commission report.

According to the United Nations, of the top 10 countries with the fastest shrinking populations, six are EU member statesBulgaria, Latvia, Croatia, Lithuania, Romania, and Greeceand one, Serbia, is on the EU accession list.

Policies that seek to reverse the emigration of highly-skilled labor can take many forms.

Last year, Greece launched Rebrain Greece, a program that offers 500 workers between 28 and 40 years old a job and a pre-tax monthly wage of 3,000 ($3,318) if they return to Greece and bring with them the knowhow gained abroad, innovations and fresh ideas. The Greek government has committed to covering 70% of these salaries, with companies contributing the other 30%.

Meanwhile, since July 2019, Portugals Programa Regressar (return program) has offered returnees who sign a full-time work contract in Portugala cash incentive worth 2,614 ($2,891), a 50% income tax reduction for five years, and a cover for relocation costs worth up to 3,886 ($4,299).

The Italian parliament expanded its rientro dei cervelli (pdf) (return of the brains) program in May of last year. Italian nationals who relocate to Italy with a work contract and agree to stay there for at least two years can now get a 70% break on their income tax for up to 10 years. And in August of last year, the Polish government declared that it would eliminate income tax for roughly two million Polish workers under the age of 26a move aimed at attracting its citizens back but also encouraging young Poles to stay and work in their home country.

Its not clear that programs like these actually work. Only 71 people took advantage of Portugals offer to move back home when the return program launched, and so in October the government eased some requirements, making it easier for people to qualify for the program. Italy also eased conditions on its rientro dei cervelli program.

Cyril Muller and Asli Demirg-Kunt, experts on Eurasia at the World Bank, wrote in a recent blog post that countries focus too much on additive programs and not enough on the underlying socio-economic conditions that led people to leave in the first place. All the tax incentives in the world cant make up for stagnating economies and democratic backsliding, says Pawel Zerka, a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), who left Poland in 2017 to work in France and has no immediate plans to return.

This is about much more than just economic incentive, he says. Everyone wants to lead a lifewhich is agreeable, secure, and decent. He argued in a recent article that governments should focus instead on improving public services like healthcare and education, reducing air pollution and corruption, and ensuring law and order.

If people feel that they lack a better future where they are, many of them will continue to vote with their feet, Zerka explained in his article. And even the fanciest system of fiscal incentives for people to come back home makes little sense if it is not accompanied with structural reforms.

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How Europe is trying to reverse its post-debt crisis brain drain - Quartz

Editors Note: This article originally appeared on Order from Chaos.

Iraqs protest movement has been remarkably resilient. For months now, tens of thousands of Iraqis across Baghdad and the south have mobilized against the government, demanding better services, accountability, and wholesale reform of the Iraqi state. Since the protests erupted, more than 600 have been killed and thousands more have been injured, according to human rights organizations. The fallout over Iranian commander Qassem Soleimanis assassination was expected to signal the death-knell of the movement, but even that has failed to decisively end what is arguably Iraqs biggest grassroots socio-political mobilization in history.

Iraqis cannot be blamed for wanting more from their government. Their country is on the brink of a socio-economic implosion as a result of a youth bulge, economic degradation, and dilapidated infrastructure. The countrys population of more than 30 million is expected to reach 50 million in a decade. More than 60 percent of Iraqis are under 24, and 700,000 require jobs every year. Iraqs ruling class has failed to respond to the demands of the population and simply no longer has the credibility, much less the capacity, to assuage its population despite the hundreds of billions of dollars that has been expended over the past decade.

Iraqs ruling class crudely assumed the threat of terrorism, the war on ISIS, and sectarian strife could deflect focus from their governance failures and the endemic (politically sanctioned) corruption in perpetuity. The political class has also capitalized on and exploited a powerful narrative that has been forged among its supportersand indeed some policy circles in Washington and other Western capitalsthat has measured the grievances and calamities of the country against the extremes of civil war or Baath-era rule. This sensationalist narrative propagated the notion of a revived Iraqi state and government and it took hold particularly under the previous Iraqi government of Haidar al-Abadi, yet it ignored underlying, deep-rooted issues that have galvanized an entire generation of Iraqis longing for a better future.

But the odds are against Iraqs protesters. The environment is not conducive to a wholesale deconstruction (followed by a reconstruction) of the state or its political system, and there are very few, if any, major actors internally in Iraq and externally that want a revolutionary change that effectively upends the post-2003 political order in its entirety. Iraqs protesters may have to also come to terms with the reality that the international community is actually much more aligned with the Iraqi ruling class (even the militias brutally suppressing them) than they think: There is far too much at stake and far too many dangerous uncertainties in a post-war climate in Iraq and the region for any major external actors to seriously contemplate backing or actively supporting an attempt to overhaul Iraqs political system.

A large part of the challenge for the protesters is that the Iraqi political system is designed in a way that makes it impervious to a major restructuring. There is a whole host of formal and informal, state and para-state actors that dominate, shape, and manage the structures of governance and power. The country suffers from the inexorable accumulation of weapons and armed groups, the absence of viable institutions, and multiple alternative authorities that supplant the Iraqi state. Many areas are beyond the influence and control of the government, areas where power is distributed diffusely among parties, militias, tribes, and clerics.

As a consequence of these dynamics, and unlike protests in Algeria or Sudan, Iraqs ruling elites are likely to stay in power even if the protests reach critical mass. In other words, save for its destruction by way of an external invasion, a country-wide civil war (which itself requires a decisive victor), or another dictatorship that is brought about through a coup, for example (and even then, Iraqis may be worse off than they currently are), the current system will prevail.

What makes the situation particularly perilous for the protesters is the impunity with which militia groups and state-sanctioned security forces are able to crack down on civilians. Iraq is dominated by unaccountable militia groups that wield substantial power and influence, in large part because these groups have exploited the fragility of the Iraqi state, have amassed considerable weapons and other resources, benefited from external patronage from Iran, and capitalized on all this to acquire political superiority.

The 100,000-strong Popular Mobilization Force (PMF), for example, was formed in response to the collapse of the Iraqi army, when ISIS seized Mosul in 2014. It is led and dominated by Iran-aligned groups that have been at the forefront of the violent crackdown against protesters. The power of the PMF is such that it has subsumed Iraqs conventional army; where it may have once been conceivable that the army would protect protesters from the atrocities of Shiite militias, that is evidently no longer the case.

The popular wisdom before the current crisis was that the PMF was not a homogenous force and included nationalist or state-aligned groups that will prevent Irans proxies from monopolizing power within the organization, groups who will operate as a buffer that insulates the Iraqi population from their violence and atrocities. There were misplaced hopes in the multi-layered characteristics of the PMF. The reality is that Irans proxies have been unmatched in their sheer resolve and ruthlessness to instrumentalize and appropriate powerful institutions like the PMF, and this has been grossly underestimated in the analysis of these groups.

The odds moved further against the protesters because they have arguably lost their single most important buffer against the militia groups that have been responsible for killing and injuring civilians. Muqtada al-Sadr and his Sadrist movement have been critical to protecting them from these groups, but a deal struck last week between al-Sadr, the Iraqi government and Irans proxies has resulted in the cleric withdrawing his support. The amorphous nature of the protest movement means its ranks will continue to swell, even without the support of a major socio-political force like the Sadrists; but the notion that the movement can still survive and sustain itself without the protective cloak of at least one of the major political actors in the country is both extremely dangerous and implausible.

That said, the protesters may have some of their fortunes revived. Iraq is infamous for its fragile political deals and coalitions, and so if there is one thing the protesters can bank on, it is the opportunities that might be thrown their way as a result of the fractious nature of the political landscape. The protesters need to urgently mobilize support from at least one major Iraqi political actor in the wake of Sadrs withdrawal of support. That might also include key institutions like the U.S.-trained Iraqi army, which has fought Irans proxies in the past. Although it is still unlikely that the army will intervene, it is not improbableparticularly if there is some active support from external actors like the U.S.

But the zero-sum approach from the movementcalling for the entire overhaul of the political systemmakes them their own worst enemy. The absence of a concerted effort to mobilize significant support within the Iraqi political arena makes them extremely vulnerable and exposed to malign forces. Moreover, the protests are not disconnected from other domestic and regional dynamics, including tensions between the U.S. and Iran. The rocket attack on the U.S. embassy by militia groups last week was immediately followed by a vicious crackdown against protesters. A broader conflict between the U.S. and Iran, or some other conflagration, could gift Irans proxies with the perfect smokescreen for launching an expanded violent campaign that looks to decisively end the protests. The fate of the protesters may also be decided away from the glare of the media: the backroom deals, the assassinations, kidnappings, and the occasional attacks launched in total darkness.

The coming weeks will be critical for determining whether Iraqs protest movement can sustain itself and, more importantly, yield at least some objectives focused on improving governance and reforming the state. The government may increasingly turn to violence, but case studies from around the world and the scholarly literature on protest movements show that while coercion might decrease protest temporarily, it far from neutralizes them; in the longer run, coercion increases the dissidence that enables protest movements to revive themselves. On every occasion the Iraqi government relies on coercion, the protesters are likely to adapt their strategies accordingly and reinforce their resiliency as a result.

See the original post:

The Irresistible Resiliency of Iraq's Protesters - Lawfare

Notable in Ukrainian academic circles were topics such as the Holodomor, Ukrainian-Jewish relations and history, and the role of women in politics, society and culture.

Author Anne Applebaum was interviewed on January 16 by Marta Baziuk, executive director of the Holodomor Research and Education Consortium (Canadian Institute of Ukrainian Studies, University of Alberta), about her latest book, Red Famine: Stalins War on Ukraine. Ms. Applebaum reflected on the overwhelmingly positive response the book received in the U.S. and U.K press, as well as across European states, with translations in French, Italian and Portuguese editions released in the fall of 2019.

The discussion noted that challenges remain in the Holodomor being accepted as a genocide internationally (which Ms. Applebaum separated from her book to not take a stance on the matter, but personally identifies the Holodomor as a genocide). For many scholars, Ms. Applebaum said, there does not exist a piece of paper that says Stalin wanted to kill a lot of Ukrainians, but the evidence shows the Stalin knew what was going on, and laws and policies were adjusted to deepen the famine conditions in Ukraine. The long-term challenge is for books like Red Famine and others to be incorporated in courses on Soviet history.

Jewish-Ukrainian relations were explored in a landmark discussion on January 29 at the Jewish Community Center JW3 in London. The panelists included Prof. Yaroslav Hrytsak, Josef Zissels and Mark Freiman, with moderator Peter Pomerantsev. The event was organized by the Ukrainian Institute London and was sponsored by the Ukrainian Jewish Encounter. A major turning point was how a new Jewish Ukrainian identity emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the establishment of the Ukrainian state in 1991, but this was not realized until 2004 and the Orange Revolution and more importantly, the Revolution of Dignity in 2013-2014. Anti-Semitism in Ukraine has been on the decline, said Prof. Hrytsak, as evidenced by the lack of political support for right-wing nationalist parties. Issues of historical memory surrounding figures such as Stepan Bandera were also discussed. Bandera, as a leader of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists, fought both the Nazis and the Soviets and sat in a Nazi concentration camp, stressed Prof. Hrytsak. Dr. Zissels underscored that figures such as Bandera and Roman Shukhevych (commander of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army) are glorified as heroes who fought for an independent Ukraine, and are not celebrated for killing Jews. Ukrainians, Dr. Zissels added, risked their lives to hide Jews from the Nazis.

Ukrainian Institute London

At the discussion on Jews and the New Ukraine at the Jewish Community Center in London on January 29 (from left) are: Mark Freiman, Ukrainian Jewish Encounter; Peter Pomerantsev, London School of Economics, Institute of Global Affairs; Prof. Yaroslav Hrytsak, Ukrainian Catholic University; and Josef Zissels, chairman, Vaad Association of Jewish Organizations and Communities of Ukraine.

Feminist scholar Oksana Kiss presentation, Ukrainian Women in the Gulag: When Survival Meant Victory, was held on January 31 in Toronto. She applied the theories and methods of feminist anthropology to explore traditional Ukrainian society, with a focus on the pre-industrial Ukrainian village life and its belief system, social norms and traditions, definition of a womans rights and duties, and female roles in family and society. Her conclusions showed that Ukrainian culture was essentially patriarchal, with power, authority and resources in the hands of men. Her research also examined the role of women during the Holodomor and in the gulag experiences. The event was sponsored by the Ukrainian Canadian Research and Documentation Center and co-sponsored by the Canadian Institute of Ukrainian Studies (CIUS) at the University of Alberta and St. Vladimir Institute of Toronto. Dr. Kis is a historian and anthropologist working as a senior research associate at the Institute of Ethnology, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, in Lviv. She is president of the Ukrainian Association for Research in Womens History and is editor-in-chief of the academic website Ukraina Moderna. Dr. Kis noted the expansion of publications available in Ukraine today, as compared to 20-plus years ago, and the expansion of feminism scholarship in Ukraine, and pointed out that much of this would not be possible without foreign donations and international support. Continued reforms in the education and academic systems were needed to modernize the field of study and scholarly opportunities.

Fifteen rare Ukrainian dictionaries, totaling 22 volumes, were presented to the Library of Congress on March 21 during the program Celebration of Leadership in a Rule of Law Country that was sponsored by the U.S.-Ukraine Foundation. Presenting the dictionaries were Liudmyla Mazuka, wife of Ambassador to the U.S. Valery Chaly, and Embassy staffers. Receiving the donation were Grant Harris, chief of the European Division, Regina Frackowiak and Jurij Dobczansky. The dictionaries were reprints of originals from the 1920s.

Five of the volumes were sponsored by the Kyiv-City Rotary Club; the other 10 were published by the Ukrainian Language Institute and the Institute of Encyclopedic Research, both of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. The Library of Congress has some 900 dictionaries and only had one of the original publications, acquired in 1930 the year of its publication. The first 10 volumes of the Dictionary Heritage series cover topics such as chemistry, education, business, medicine, manufacturing, geology, mining, music, proverbs, geodesy and physics.

Dr. Taras Hunczaks latest book, Ukraine in the Twentieth and Twenty-First Centuries: The Unending Complexities of Survival, a collection of scholarly essays, was presented on March 24 at the Ukrainian American Cultural Center of New Jersey in Whippany. Dr. Hunczak is professor emeritus of history at Rutgers University. His latest book deals with Ukraines pursuit of sovereignty and statehood during the periods of World War I, the Ukrainian Revolution of 1917-1021, the interwar period and World War II. The presentation was organized by the Ukrainian Academy of Arts and Sciences in the U.S. (UVAN) and sponsored by the Morris County N.J., branch of the Ukrainian Congress Committee of America and Selfreliance Federal Credit Union in commemoration of the 100th anniversary of Ukraines proclamation of independence in 1918. Other scholars participating in the presentation were Dr. Albert Kipa, president of UVAN, Dr. Leonid Rudnytzky, president of the World Council of Shevchenko Scientific Societies, Dr. Mark Thomas, professor of political science at LaSalle University, and Dr. Walter Zarycky, executive director of the Center for U.S.-Ukrainian Relations. The book was noted for the 12 thorny subjects, including the Holodomor, examined and explained by Dr. Hunczak.

It was reported in March that the film of the 1983 international symposium on the 1933 Famine in Ukraine (held on March 25-26, 1983, in Montreal), was restored and preserved by Yurij and Zorianna Luhovy. Mr. Luhovy and Peter Blysczak had filmed the symposium in 1983, and the medium U-MATIC videotape was discontinued. As the film was in danger of disintegrating and disappearing, it was transferred to DVD and color-corrected. The symposium was significant in that scholars examined not only the agricultural and farming casualties that were the main target, but also the destruction of the Ukrainian national elites, the Churches, language, culture all the qualities that made Ukrainians a nation and a culture, said Dr. Roman Serbyn.

The symposium was sponsored by the University of Montreal, McGill University, Concordia University and Universite du Quebec a Montreal, as well as the Canadian Institute of Ukrainian Studies at the University of Alberta. The restoration donors included the Ukrainian National Federation, Montreal Branch; La Caisse Populaire Desjardins Ukrainienne de Montreal; the Holodomor Research and Education Consortium of the Canadian Institute of Ukrainian Studies, University of Alberta; Shevchenko Foundation Ukrainian War Veterans Fund; Ucranica Research Institute; Buduchnist Credit Union Foundation and others.

Ukrainian-Jewish relations were discussed on March 28 at the Ukrainian Institute of America in New York, with a focus on the new book by Dr. Paul Robert Magocsi and Dr. Yohanan Petrovsky-Shtern, Jews and Ukrainians: A Millennium of Co-Existence. The event was sponsored by the UIA and the Ukrainian Jewish Encounter. The discussion touched on a number of important issues related to how Ukrainians and Jews from Ukrainian lands view each other, and how that relationship has developed over the centuries. A major focus was how Ukrainian territory had been in the control of invading empires over the centuries it was noted that Ukraines defined borders were more of a 20th century concept and how Jewish identity played into that territorial shift and Ukrainian national identity. Moderator Adrian Karatnycky noted that Jewish Hassidism considers Ukraine as its cradle of development, with many prominent leaders coming from Ukraine, and he spoke of the millions killed in Ukraine during the Holocaust (Jews and non-Jews alike). Discussion also focused on investigations by scholars into the state archives about suspected Nazi collaborators during the second world war, but the scholars cautioned that historical context and balance were important.

Ambassador to the U.S. Valery Chaly spoke at Harvard University on April 15 about the important geopolitical role of Ukraine. He highlighted the importance of Ukraines bilateral relationship with the U.S., and explained how that relationship plays out in the latest developments in the ongoing war with Russia in Ukraines eastern Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Ukraine gets 92 percent of its military support for the U.S., he said, adding that some 200 troops from the U.S. Armys 101st Airborne Division were arriving in Ukraine for training exercises. The U.S. Navy, he said, had sent ships into the Black Sea to reduce destabilization in the area by Russia. The ambassador also explained the situation in Crimea and Russias militarization of the peninsula since it was annexed by Russia in 2014.

Andrew Nynka

Ukraines ambassador to the United States, Valery Chaly (right), presents a watch as a gift to Prof. Serhii Plokhii, director of the Harvard Ukrainian Research Institute, on April 15 at Harvard University. The ambassador spoke on Ukraines geopolitical role in Europe.

The National University of Kyiv Mohyla Academy (NaUKMA) held its 25th jubilee convocation in Kyiv on June 28, Constitution Day in Ukraine. This was the largest graduating class from the university since 1991, with 646 undergraduates, 366 post-graduates, 55 MBAs and four Ph.D.s. The keynote speaker, Roman Nabozhnyak, a 2013 graduate, who is a musician, entrepreneur, ATO veteran and co-founder of the caf Veterano Brownie, drew loud applause. He stated: Do not be afraid to go all in at everything your love, your family and your favorite passion. And do it without the expectation to receive anything in return. Because nobody owes you anything. Look for great challenges in life, and never forget to ask yourself this question, What can I do? The Mykola Kravets Award for practical contribution to the development of Ukraine was presented to Oleh Dykyj, who received a Master of Law degree. Mr. Dykyj noted the struggle for freedom was tied to the wish to build a strong society through the Alumni Association of NaUKMA, which would continue to benefit Ukraine.

Cover of Dr. Oleh Wolowynas Atlas of Ukrainians in the United States, which was released in the fall of 2019.

In September, readers learned about Dr. Oleh Wolowynas latest book, Atlas of Ukrainians in the United States: Demographic and Socio-economic Characteristics. A book review by Wsevolod W. Isajiw hailed the book as perhaps one of the first comprehensive atlases of an ethnic group in the U.S.A. with 380 maps, 15 figures and three tables. The atlas provides a thorough picture of the historical and current demographic socioeconomic status of the Ukrainian community from the first wave of immigration in 1899 up until very recently in 2010. The maps were made possible by the Center for Demographic and Socio-Economic Research of Ukrainian in the United States at the Shevchenko Scientific Society, directed by Dr. Wolowyna. The atlas covers historical migration, recent immigration from Ukraine, internal migration, population distribution by state and in over 55 metropolitan areas, with percentages of Fourth Wave and of those speaking Ukrainian at home. The wealth of information in this book is of service to all Ukrainian community organizations, as the old centers of the community shift to new areas of the U.S. and reflects the current reality.

Following the death of Prof. Dmytro Shtohryn on September 25, his daughter, Dr. Liudoslava Shtohryn, reminded our readers about the Dmytro Shtohryn Endowment in Ukrainian Studies in the Department of Slavic Languages and Literature at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. [Editors note: The endowment was actually established in 2017.] The endowment for the department is targeted for conferences, symposia, individual lectures and other learning opportunities on the topic of Ukrainian studies. Prof. Shtohyrn, professor of library administration and the first head of the Slavic and East European Library, was credited with establishing Ukrainian studies as a discipline at the university.

On October 1, the Holodomor Research and Education Consortium (HREC), a project of the Canadian Institute of Ukrainian Studies, University of Alberta, announced the 2019 winner of the HREC Educator Prize for Holodomor Lesson Plan Development. The winning lesson plan, titled Holodomor Three Issues to Examine (High School Edition), has students apply their critical thinking to comparing the patterns of three factors related to a better understanding of the Holodomor, utilizing current geographically mapped research data.

Manor College in Jenkintown, Pa., hosted a dialogue on the topic Emerging Women in Politics in, of, and for Ukraine on October 11. The featured speakers included Rep. Madeleine Dean (D-Pa.), a member of the Congressional Ukrainian Caucus, and Myroslava Gongadze, chief of the Ukrainian Service at Voice of America, with Manor College president, Dr. Jonathan Peri, as moderator. Ms. Gongadze explained her rise as a voice in Ukraine after the murder of her husband, Heorhiy Gongadze, in 2000 that propelled her to the spotlight. She said she made a decision to use her knowledge to raise awareness about corruption and fraud. Her role with Voice of America has sought balance and fairness, for both men and women. Rep. Dean spoke of the need for diversity related to men and women at the discussion table. Although womens rights are enshrined in the Constitution of Ukraine, as it is in the U.S., she said there remains an ongoing struggle to make it reflected in practice. Ms. Gongadze also advocated for women to take up roles in U.S. politics, the need for Ukrainians to speak up for themselves in the media coverage of Ukraine and Ukrainians, and the necessity for Ukraine to be covered from Ukraine, not Moscow or Washington.

The spring courses offered by the Ukrainian Studies Program at Columbia University were announced in January, and included two history courses led by visiting scholar Dr. Johannes Remy, Introduction to the History of Ukraine and Ukraine in the Russian and Habsburg Empires. Other offerings were Dr. Mark Andryczyks literary course on Brand New Creating Identity in Contemporary Ukrainian Culture, Ambassador Valery Kuchynskyis Todays Ukraine: Power, Politics and Diplomacy, and Ukrainian language instruction by Dr. Yuri Shevchuk, elementary, intermediate and advanced. The program also hosted film screenings through the Ukrainian Film Club at Columbia University, and presentations by Ukrainian scholars.

Columbias fall course offerings in the Ukrainian Studies Program included art history taught by Dr. Olena Martyniuk and visiting Fulbright scholars Drs. Oksana Remaniaka and Dr. Maria Shuvalova, as well as Dr. Motyls Ukraine in New York course, Ambassador Kuchynskyis Ukrainian Foreign Policy: Russia, Europe and the U.S., Ukrainian language instruction by Dr. Yuri Shevchuk and his film study, Soviet, Post-Soviet, Colonial and Postcolonial Cinema. Events scheduled for the fall included: a literary roundtable, Envisioning Ukrainian Literature 2019, Part II with Irene Zabytko, Dr. Motyl, Dzvinia Orlowsky, Olena Jennings and Mark Andryczyk; a talk by Dr. Kis, Remaining a Ukrainian Woman: Normative Femininity as Armor in the Gulag; and a two-day conference, Five Years of War in the Donbas: Cultural Responses and Reverberations with The Ukrainian Museum and the Ukrainian Film Club at Columbia University.

Continued here:

2019: The academic world: Exploring diverse topics - The Ukrainian Weekly

Here's the former president's speech in full:

Mr Speaker, Members of Parliament.

THE GENERAL ELECTIONS on September the 6th, 1989, placed our country irrevocably on the road of drastic change. Underlying this is the growing realisation by an increasing number of South Africans that only a negotiated understanding among the representative leaders of the entire population is able to ensure lasting peace.

The alternative is growing violence, tension and conflict. That is unacceptable and in nobody's interest. The well-being of all in this country is linked inextricably to the ability of the leaders to come to terms with one another on a new dispensation. No-one can escape this simple truth.

On its part, the government will accord the process of negotiation the highest priority. The aim is a totally new and just constitutional dispensation in which every inhabitant will enjoy equal rights, treatment and opportunity in every sphere of endeavour - constitutional, social and economic.

I hope this new Parliament will play a constructive part in both the prelude to negotiations and the negotiating process itself. I wish to ask all of you who identify yourselves with the broad aim of a new South Africa, and that is the overwhelming majority.

Let us put petty politics aside when we discuss the future during this Session.

Help us build a broad consensus about the fundamentals of a new, realistic and democratic dispensation. Let us work together on a plan that will rid our country of suspicion and steer it away from domination and radicalism of any kind.

During the term of this new parliament, we shall have to deal, complimentary to one another, with the normal processes of legislation and day-to-day government, as well as with the process of negotiation and renewal. Within this framework I wish to deal first with several matters more closely concerned with the normal process of government before I turn specifically to negotiation and related issues.

1 Foreign relations

The Government is aware of the important part the world at large has to play in the realisation of our country's national interests.

Without contact and co-operation with the rest of the world we cannot promote the well-being and security of our citizens. The dynamic developments in international politics have created new opportunities for South Africa as well. Important advances have been made, among other things, in our contacts abroad, especially where these were precluded previously by ideological considerations.

I hope this trend will be encouraged by the important change of climate that is taking place in South Africa

For South Africa, indeed for the whole world, the past year has been one of change and major upheaval. In Eastern Europe and even the Soviet Union itself, political and economic upheaval surged forward in an unstoppable tide. At the same time, Beijing temporarily smothered with brutal violence the yearning of the people of the Chinese mainland for greater freedom.

The year of 1989 will go down in history as the year in which Stalinist Communism expired.

These developments will entail unpredictable consequences for Europe, but they will also be of decisive importance to Africa. The indications are that the countries of eastern and central Europe will receive greater attention, while it will decline in the case of Africa.

The collapse, particularly of the economic system in eastern Europe, also serves as a warning to those who insist on persisting with it in Africa. Those who seek to force this failure of a system on South Africa, should engage in a total revision of their point of view. It should be clear to all that is not the answer here either. The new situation in eastern Europe also shows foreign intervention is no recipe for domestic change. It never succeeds, regardless of its ideological motivation. The upheaval in eastern Europe took place without the involvement of the Big Powers or of the United Nations.

The countries of southern Africa are faced with a particular challenge: Southern Africa now has an historical opportunity to set aside its conflicts and ideological differences and draw up a joint programme of reconstruction. It should be sufficiently attractive to ensure the southern African region obtains adequate investment and loan capital from the industrial countries of the world. Unless the countries of southern Africa achieve stability and a common approach to economic development rapidly, they will be faced by further decline and ruin.

The government is prepared to enter into discussions with other southern African countries with the aim of formulating a realistic development plan. The government believes the obstacles in the way of a conference of southern African states have now been removed sufficiently.

Hostile postures have to be replaced by co-operative ones; confrontation by contact; disengagement by engagement; slogans by deliberate debate.

The season of violence is over. The time for reconstruction and reconciliation has arrived.

Recently there have, indeed, been unusually positive results in South Africa's contacts and relations with other African states. During my visits to their countries I was received cordially, both in private and in public, by presidents Moburu, Chissano, Houphouet-Boigny and Kaunda. These leaders expressed their sincere concern about the serious economic problems in our part of the world. They agreed South Africa could and should play a positive part in regional co-operation and development.

Our positive contribution to the independence process in South West Africa has been recognised internationally. South Africa's good faith and reliability as a negotiator made a significant contribution to the success of the events. This, too, was not unnoticed. Similarly, our efforts to help bring an end to the domestic conflict situations in Mozambique and Angola have received positive acknowledgement.

At present the government is involved in negotiations concerning our future relations with an independent Namibia and there are no reasons why good relations should not exist between the two countries. Namibia needs South Africa and we are prepared to play a constructive part.

Nearer home I paid fruitful visits to Venda, Transkei and Ciskei and intend visiting Bophuthatswana soon. In recent times there has been an interesting debate about the future relationship of the TBVC countries with South Africa and specifically about whether they should be re-incorporated into our country.

Without rejecting this idea out of hand, it should be borne in mind that it is but one of many possibilities. These countries are constitutionally independent. Any return to South Africa will have to be dealt with, not only by means of legislation in their parliaments, but also through legislation in this Parliament. Naturally this will have to be preceded by talks and agreements.

2 Human rights

Some time ago the government referred the question of the protection of fundamental human rights to the South African Law Commission. This resulted in the law commission's interim working document on individual and minority rights. It elicited substantial public interest.

I am satisfied that every individual and organisation in the country has had ample opportunity to make representations to the law commission, express criticism freely and make suggestions. At present, the law commission is considering the representations received. A final report is expected in the course of this year.

In view of the exceptional importance of the subject of human rights to our country and all its people, I wish to ask the law commission to accord this task high priority.

The whole question of protecting individual and minority rights, which includes collective rights and the rights of national groups, is still under consideration by the law commission. Therefore, it would be inappropriate of the government to express a view on the details now. However, certain matters of principle have emerged fairly dearly and I wish to devote some remarks to them.

The government accepts the principle of the recognition and protection of the fundamental individual rights which form the constitutional basis of most Western democracies. We acknowledge, too, that the most practical way of protecting those rights is vested in a declaration of rights justiciable by an independent judiciary. However, it is clear that a system for the protection of the rights of individuals, minorities and national entities has to form a well-rounded and balanced whole. South Africa has its own national composition and our constitutional dispensation has to take this into account. The formal recognition of individual rights does not mean that the problems of a heterogeneous population will simply disappear. Any new constitution which disregards this reality will be inappropriate and even harmful. Naturally, the protection of collective, minority and national rights may not bring about an imbalance in respect of individual rights. It is neither the government's policy nor its intention that any group - in whichever way it may be defined - shall be favoured above or in relation to any of the others.

The government is requesting the law commission to undertake a further task and report on it. This task is directed at the balanced protection in a future constitution of the human rights of all our citizens, as well as of collective units, associations, minorities and nations. This investigation will also serve the purpose of supporting negotiations towards a new constitution.

The terms of reference also include:

3 The death penalty

The death penalty has been the subject of intensive discussion in recent months. However, the government has been giving its attention to this extremely sensitive issue for some time. On April the 27th, 1989, the honourable minister of justice indicated that there was merit in suggestions for reform in this area. Since 1988 in fact, my predecessor and I have been taking decisions on reprieves which have led, in proportion, to a drastic decline in executions.

We have now reached the position in which we are able to make concrete proposals for reform. After the chief justice was consulted, and he in turn had consulted the Bench, and after the government had noted the opinions of academics and other interested parties, the government decided on the following broad principles from a variety of available options:

Should these proposals be adopted, they should have a significant influence on the imposition of death sentences on the one hand, and on the other, should ensure that every case in which a person has been sentenced to death, will come to the attention of the appellate division.

The proposals require that everybody currently awaiting execution, be accorded the benefit of the proposed new approach. Therefore, all executions have been suspended and no executions will take place until parliament has taken a final decision on the new proposals. In the event of the proposals being adopted, the case of every person involved will be dealt with in accordance with the new guidelines. In the meantime, no executions have taken place since November 14th, 1989.

New and uncompleted cases will still be adjudicated in terms of the existing law. Only when the death sentence is imposed, will the new proposals be applied, as in the case of those currently awaiting execution.

The legislation concerned also entails other related principles which will be announced and elucidated in due course by the Minister of Justice. It will now be formulated in consultation with experts and be submitted to Parliament as soon as possible. I wish to urge everybody to join us in dealing with this highly sensitive issue in a responsible manner.

4 Socio-economic aspects

A changed dispensation implies far more than political and constitutional issues. It cannot be pursued successfully in isolation from problems in other spheres of life which demand practical solutions. Poverty, unemployment, housing shortages, inadequate education and training, illiteracy, health needs and numerous other problems still stand in the way of progress and prosperity and an improved quality of life.

The conservation of the physical and human environment is of cardinal importance to the quality of our existence. For this the government is developing a strategy with the aid of an investigation by the President's Council.

All of these challenges are being dealt with urgently and comprehensively. The capability for this has to be created in an economically accountable manner. Consequently existing strategies and aims are undergoing a comprehensive revision.

From this will emanate important policy announcements in the socio-economic sphere by the responsible ministers during the course of the session. One matter about which it is possible to make a concrete announcement, is the Separate Amenities Act, 1953. Pursuant to my speech before the president's council late last year, I announce that this Act will be repealed during this session of parliament.

The state cannot possibly deal alone with all of the social advancement our circumstances demand. The community at large, and especially the private sector, also have a major responsibility towards the welfare of our country and its people.

5 The economy

A new South Africa is possible only if it is bolstered by a sound and growing economy, with particular emphasis on the creation of employment. With a view to this, the government has taken thorough cognisance of the advice contained in numerous reports by a variety of advisory bodies. The central message is that South Africa, too, will have to make certain structural changes to its economy, just as its major trading partners had to do a decade or so ago.

The period of exceptionally high economic growth experienced by the western world in the 1960s was brought to an end by the oil crisis in 1973. Drastic structural adaptations became inevitable for these countries, especially after the second oil crisis in 1979, when serious imbalances occurred in their economies. After considerable sacrifices, those countries which persevered with their structural adjustment programmes, recovered economically so that lengthy periods of high economic growth and low inflation were possible.

During that particular period, South Africa was protected temporarily by the rising gold price from the necessity of making similar adjustments immediately. In fact, the high gold price even brought prosperity with it for a while. The recovery of the world economy and the decline in the price of gold and other primary products, brought with them unhealthy trends. These included high inflation, a serious weakening in the productivity of capital, stagnation in the economy's ability to generate income and employment opportunities. All of this made a drastic structural adjustment of our economy inevitable.

The government's basic point of departure is to reduce the role of the public sector in the economy and to give the private sector maximum opportunity for optimal performance. In this process, preference has to be given to allowing the market forces and a sound competitive structure to bring about the necessary adjustments.

Naturally, those who make and implement economic policy have a major responsibility at the same time to promote an environment optimally conducive to investment, job creation and economic growth by means of appropriate and properly co-ordinated fiscal and monetary policy. The government remains committed to this balanced and practical approach.

By means of restricting capital expenditure in parastatal institutions, privatisation, deregulation and curtailing government expenditure, substantial progress has been made already towards reducing the role of the authorities in the economy. We shall persist with this in a well-considered way.

This does not mean the state will forsake its indispensable development role, especially in our particular circumstances. On the contrary, it is the precise intention of the government to concentrate an equitable portion of its capacity on these aims by means of the meticulous determination of priorities.

Following the progress that has been made in other areas of the economy in recent years, it is now opportune to give particular attention to the supply side of the economy.

Fundamental factors which will contribute to the success of this restructuring are:

These and other adjustments, which will require sacrifices, have to be seen as prerequisites for a new period of sustained growth in productive employment in the nineties.

The government is very much aware of the necessity of proper coordination and consistent implementation of its economic policy. For this reason, the establishment of the necessary structures and expertise to ensure this co-ordination is being given preference. This applies both to the various functions within the government and to the interaction between the authorities and the private sector.

This is obviously not the occasion for me to deal in greater detail with our total economic strategy or with the recent course of the economy.

I shall confine myself to a few specific remarks on one aspect of fiscal policy that has been a source of criticism of the government for some time, namely state expenditure.

The government's financial year ends only in two months' time and several other important economic indicators for the 1989 calendar year are still subject to refinements at this stage. Nonetheless, several important trends are becoming increasingly dear. I am grateful to be able to say we have apparently succeeded to a substantial degree in achieving most of our economic aims in the past year.

In respect of government expenditure, the budget for the current financial year will be the most accurate in many years. The financial figures will show;

Without pre-empting this year's main budget, I wish to emphasise that it is also our intention to co-ordinate fiscal and monetary policy in the coming financial year in a way that will enable us to achieve the ensuing goals - namely:

It is a matter of considerable seriousness to the government, especially in this particular period of our history, to promote a dynamic economy which will make it possible for increasing numbers of people to be employed and share in rising standards of living.

6 Negotiation

In conclusion, I wish to focus the spotlight on the process of negotiation and related issues. At this stage I am refraining deliberately from discussing the merits of numerous political questions which undoubtedly will be debated during the next few weeks. The focus, now, has to fall on negotiation.

Practically every leader agrees that negotiation is the key to reconciliation, peace and a new and just dispensation. However, numerous excuses for refusing to take part are advanced. Some of the reasons being advanced are valid. Others are merely part of a political chess game. And while the game of chess proceeds, valuable time is being lost.

Against this background I committed the government during my inauguration to giving active attention to the most important obstacles in the way of negotiation. Today I am able to announce far-reaching decisions in this connection.

I believe these decisions will shape a new phase in which there will be a movement away from measures which have been seized upon as a justification for confrontation and violence. The emphasis has to move, and will move now, to a debate and discussion of political and economic points of view as part of the process of negotiation.

I wish to urge every political and community leader, in and outside parliament, to approach the new opportunities which are being created, constructively. There is no time left for advancing all manner of new conditions that will delay the negotiating process.

The steps that have been decided are the following:

These decisions by the cabinet are in accordance with the government's declared intention to normalise the political process in South Africa without jeopardising the maintenance of good order. They were preceded by thorough and unanimous advice by a group of officials which included members of the security community.

Implementation will be immediate and, where necessary, notices will appear in the Government Gazette from tomorrow. The most important facets of the advice the government received in this connection are the following:

About one matter there should be no doubt. The lifting of the prohibition on the said organisations does not signify in the least the approval or condonation of terrorism or crimes of violence committed under the banner or which may be perpetrated in the future. Equally, it should not be interpreted as a deviation from the government's principles, among other things, against their economic policy and aspects of their constitutional policy. This will be dealt with in debate and negotiation.

At the same time I wish to emphasise that the maintenance of law and order dares not be jeopardised. The government will not forsake its duty in this connection. Violence from whichever source, will be fought with all available might. Peaceful protest may not become the springboard for lawlessness, violence and intimidation. No democratic country can tolerate that.

Strong emphasis will be placed as well on even more effective law enforcement. Proper provision of manpower and means for the police and all who are involved with the enforcement of the law, will be ensured. In fact, the budget for the coming financial year will already begin to give effect to this.

I wish to thank the members of our security forces and related services for the dedicated service they have rendered the Republic of South Africa. Their dedication makes reform in a stable climate possible.

On the state of emergency I have been advised that an emergency situation, which justifies these special measures which have been retained, still exists. There is still conflict which is manifesting itself mainly in Natal, but as a consequence of the countrywide political power struggle. In addition, there are indications that radicals are still trying to disrupt the possibilities of negotiation by means of mass violence.

It is my intention to terminate the state of emergency completely as soon as circumstances justify it and I request the co-operation of everybody towards this end. Those responsible for unrest and conflict have to bear the blame for the continuing state of emergency. In the mean time, the state of emergency is inhibiting only those who use chaos and disorder as political instruments. Otherwise the rules of the game under the state of emergency are the same for everybody.

Against this background the government is convinced that the decisions I have announced are justified from the security point of view. However, these decisions are justified from a political point of view as well.

Our country and all its people have been embroiled in conflict, tension and violent struggle for decades. It is time for us to break out of the cycle of violence and break through to peace and reconciliation. The silent majority is yearning for this. The youth deserve it.

With the steps the government has taken it has proven its good faith and the table is laid for sensible leaders to begin talking about a new dispensation, to reach an understanding by way of dialogue and discussion.

The agenda is open and the overall aims to which we are aspiring should be acceptable to all reasonable South Africans.

Among other things, those aims include a new, democratic constitution; universal franchise; no domination; equality before an independent judiciary; the protection of minorities as well as of individual rights; freedom of religion; a sound economy based on proven economic principles and private enterprise; dynamic programmes directed at better education, health services, housing and social conditions for all.

In this connection Mr Nelson Mandela could play an important part. The government has noted he has declared himself to be willing to make a constructive contribution to the peaceful political process in South Africa.

I wish to put it plainly that the government has taken a firm decision to release Mr Mandela unconditionally. I am serious about bringing this matter to finality without delay. The government will take a decision soon on the date of his release. Unfortunately, a further short passage of time is unavoidable.

Normally there is a certain passage of time between the decision to release and the actual release because of logistical and administrative requirements. In the case of Mr Mandela there are factors in the way of his immediate release, of which his personal circumstances and safety are not the least. He has not been an ordinary prisoner for quite some rime. Because of that, his case requires particular circumspection.

Today's announcements, in particular, go to the heart of what black leaders - also Mr Mandela - have been advancing over the years as their reason for having resorted to violence. The allegation has been that the government did not wish to talk to them and that they were deprived of their right to normal political activity by the prohibition of their organisations.

Without conceding that violence has ever been justified, I wish to say today to those who argued in this manner:

These facts place everybody in South Africa before a fait accompli. On the basis of numerous previous statements there is no longer any reasonable excuse for the continuation of violence. The time for talking has arrived and whoever still makes excuses does not really wish to talk.

Therefore, I repeat my invitation with greater conviction than ever:

Walk through the open door, take your place at the negotiating table together with the government and other leaders who have important power bases inside and outside of parliament.

Henceforth, everybody's political points of view will be tested against their realism, their workability and their fairness. The time for negotiation has arrived.

To those political leaders who have always resisted violence I say thank you for your principled stands. This includes all the leaders of parliamentary parties, leaders of important organisations and movements, such as Chief Minister Buthelezi, all of the other chief ministers and urban community leaders.

Through their participation and discussion they have made an important contribution to this moment in which the process of free political participation is able to be restored. Their places in the negotiating process are assured.

Conclusion

In my inaugural address I said the following:

All reasonable people in this country - by far the majority -anxiously await a message of hope. It is our responsibility as leaders in all spheres to provide that message realistically, with courage and conviction. If we fail in that, the ensuing chaos, the demise of stability and progress, will for ever be held against us.

History has thrust upon the leadership of this country the tremendous responsibility to turn our country away from its present direction of conflict and confrontation. Only we, the leaders of our peoples, can do it.

Read more:

FW de Klerk's defining speech in full, reactions as Mzansi reflects on the past - TimesLIVE

Crushed by a technicality, analysts call for evaluation and new leader.

On Wednesday, a five-man bench at the Court of Appeal (CoA) crushed Umbrella for Democratic Changes (UDC) hope of taking over government from the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP).

The court dismissed, with costs, the Umbrellas request to challenge the outcome of 14 constituencies at last years general elections. The CoA ruled that, according to the Constitution of Botswana, it does not have the jurisdiction to hear such petitions.

The UDC were forced to turn to the CoA after High Court threw out their original petition on the basis the coalition failed to comply with Electoral Petitions procedures.

In light of Wednesdays ruling, The Voice staffer, DANIEL CHIDA spoke to three Political Analysts to get their views on where the UDC go from here.

PROFESSOR AGREEMENT JOTIA

What makes a distinction between a democracy and any form of government is the respect and honour of the rule of law.

In this case, argumentatively so, the UDC approached the Courts as per the provisions of our democratic process as enshrined within our Constitution and they were given a platform to vent the displeasure.

The Courts listened and ruled. However, whether the ruling is what they expected is a subject for another intellectual engagement.

Moving forward, I take it that the UDC has a mammoth task to go on a journey of self-introspection in terms of making a very critical analysis of what else could have gone wrong during the elections besides the claims of election rigging.

Fundamental to UDCs critical examination should be on the leadership frontier: what did the leadership do right and where did they blunder? What else could have been done differently and by who?

Going forward, how does the UDC mend the political walls of Jericho? Whom should the UDC associate with going forward and which relationship should they bring to an end?

How do you turn the UDC into a political brand going into 2024?

What do the figures of those masses who voted for UDC mean to the leadership and Botswanas political platform in general?

These are difficult, uncomfortable and tough questions which demand nothing but logic-driven and fair critical analysis.

All in all, our democracy has never been so challenged before and I guess this is why democracy as a principle of governance is beautiful.

We disagree, challenge and accommodate diversity of opinion.

Botswana is our country let us move forward to socio-economic and political prosperity despite the fact that some are in grief. With God, our tomorrow will be better!

LEONARD SESA

The UDC s move of taking this matter to court is a sign of democracy on its own but what happened should be a wake up call for IEC in the future. It shows that they must improve and do better.

The UDC members were within their constitutional rights and the outcome shouldnt be a blow to them but to introspect their movement.

UDC lost on a technicality and this could be based on how they interpreted law.

There are still 2024 elections and bye elections coming along the way.

Another point to be noted from the case is how the President, Mokgweetsi Masisi did not interfere.

When abroad, he made a statement that he was waiting for the outcome just like anybody else and he was prepared to accept the results.

KEBAPETSE LOTSHWAO

This was a political matter that didnt need the court to decide.

Batswana rejected UDC and the party should have evaluated the elections to see why Batswana chose the BDP over them.

However, the ruling has brought an end to the matter and it will be laid to rest.

They must take stock of themselves since there is 2024 coming.

When doing introspection, they must also look at their leadership, especially Boko who lead the movement twice but failed to bring the needed results.

Maybe it is time for the BNF to hand over to someone like Prince Dibeela who listens to people.

The rest is here:

BNF on the verge of collapse? - The Voice Online

The UK Fisheries Bill to be laid before parliament would make overfishing legal, a serious setback to the legal obligation to fish sustainably under EU law, warns Oceana.

The UK government has revoked the legal duty to fish sustainably, at Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) in the new Fisheries Bill, despite their claims to the contrary. Oceana fears that unless amended the Fisheries Bill will make overfishing legal in the UK. Despite repeated promises by the UK Government not to renege on EU environmental commitments, here they are clearly doing so.

Fishing at Maximum Sustainable Yields (MSY) allows governments to balance what we take out of the sea with replenishing stocks which results in more fish, more jobs, more money. By contrast, overfishing leads to fish stocks shrinking or at worst collapsing, as happened to North Sea cod last year, which puts both the socio-economic sustainability of fishing and fish supplies at risk.

At present in the North East Atlantic nearly 60% of commercial fish stocks are now fished sustainably, in line with the MSY, while 40% are still overfished. Post Brexit, the UK wants to increase quota for its UK fishermen, while the EU is determined to retain its existing quota in UK waters, meaning that there is an increased likelihood of overfishing of over 100 shared stocks. To prevent this negative trend, Oceana urges that the UK fisheries bill includes a legal duty to fish at MSY.

Not fishing at MSY will be bad for fish stocks and fishermen as well as our seas. Supermarkets also increasingly only want to source sustainable fish, so this move will also be frustrating for them and consumers will need to be increasingly wary about whether their plate of fish is sustainable.

Oceana Head of UK Policy Melissa Moore said: After all these years of working towards recovering fish stocks were very worried that overfishing may continue or even increase unless the Fisheries Bill is amended to provide a legal duty to fish sustainably.

Given the climate and ecological emergency, we should take even more care of our fish stocks to provide additional food security in the future, rather than allowing an increase in overfishing which threatens fish stocks and can cause them to collapse..

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#Overfishing - UK government waives rules to allow fishermen to rule the waves - EU Reporter - EU Reporter

COMMENTARY

Reparations are a big and valid debate today. Should the U.S. compensate African Americans for centuries of slavery? Should France pony up for the billions of dollars it extorted from Haiti in the 19thcentury?

Yes and yes, by the way. But recent events remind me we should add another historical world power to the reparations roster: Spain.

Spain owes Latin America not just big-time financial restitution for its more than three centuries of colonial rapacity, but something just as important:institution restitution.

Last weekend Spain found itself in the middle of Venezuelas gothic political crisis. Good, I thought: Venezuelas mess is the sort of implosion of democratic institutionality thats so chronic in Latin America largely because Spain left the continent with no democratic institutionality to speak of in exchange for all the gold and silver it took.

READ MORE: A Year On, Venezuela's Guaid Is Trying to Find His Mojo. A Bad Movie Might Help

Spain's squabble erupted after a top minister in the socialist government met with Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodrguez at Madrid's international airport. Venezuelas regime is also socialist; but Spain like the U.S. and almost 60 other countries does not consider Rodrguezs boss, authoritarian President Nicols Maduro, to be Venezuelas legitimate head of state. It instead recognizes Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaid as the countrys interim president.

So Spains political opposition was angry that Rodrguez who like most top Venezuelan regime officials is barred from entering Spain under current E.U. sanctions got a cabinet-level meet-and-greet while Guaid, who visited Spain on Saturday, couldnt get a photo op with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Snchez. The question hanging over Madrid: Are Spains true sympathies with Guaids democracy-building plan, or with Maduros democracy-trashing plot?

The collapse of democratic institutionality is so chronic in Latin America because Spain left no real democratic institutionality there in exchange for all the gold and silver it took. It's time Madrid paid reparations: institution restitution.

Spain could put our minds at ease with reparations investing in a massive mission to help Latin American nations build the reliable democratic institutions that keep eluding them generation after generation. And if that elusion has eluded your notice, let's take a brief tour.

In Mexico, the countrys feeble, dysfunctional judicial system a showcase of the lawless legacy of Spanish conquistador rule looks as powerless as ever to do a damn thing about drug-cartel violence. Mexicos homicide rate hit a record high last year.

Yet that same judicial system this week is making one of Mexicos most respected human rights activists, Sergio Aguayo, pay 10 million pesos (half a million dollars) to former Coahuila state Gov. Humberto Moreira. Hed sued Aguayo for writing that Moreira had a corrupt stench." But theres just one egregious hole in the Mexican court's ruling: Aguayo wrote that in 2016 after Moreira was arrested in Spain for embezzlement and drug-money laundering!(Wednesday night Mexico's Supreme Court agreed to review the astonishing decision.)

Then travel to the Andes and South Americas poorest country, Bolivia where the Spanish empire extracted some 50,000 tons of silver but established squat in terms of constitutional governance. Bolivia looks set to trade a messianic left-wing nut for a messianic right-wing nut.

DEMAGOGUERY ADDICTION

Former leftist President Evo Morales, who ruled the country for 13 years, was recently forced into exile after getting Bolivias own laughable judiciary to aid his constitution-trashing scheme to rule for life. Who could now take his place? A racist Roman Catholic reactionary, interim President Jeanine Aez. Last Friday she broke her promise not to run in this years special presidential election because, like Evo, shes come to the savior's conclusion shes indispensable.

Should Aez win, it would just perpetuate Latin Americas political Groundhog Day. An incessant see-sawing between ideological extremes. An addiction to demagoguery instead of democracy thanks to the void of any historical tradition of the latter that Spain could have planted there. But didnt.

So why not call on todays Spain (and Portugal, vis--vis Brazil) to do its bit to redress this awful cycle to help develop stronger rule of law, bipartisan civics, effective tax collection and, most important, credible education?

Before the lefties scream about the U.S.s abuses in Latin America, which I wont deny, they should consider the region might not have been so vulnerable to los yanquis in the 20thcentury if los espaoles hadnt made it such a socio-economic basket case in the 16th-through-19thcenturies. And before the Iberophiles argue Spain invests billions in Latin America today, please remember the region is still home to some of the worlds worst inequality. Foreign direct investment alone doesnt fix that; fair and functioning institutions do.

If Spain wants to avoid future headaches like its current Venezuela imbroglio, it might consider what more much more it can do to help its former colonies build those institutions for once.

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As Venezuela's Mess Roils Madrid, It's Time To Add Spain To The Reparations Roster - WLRN

By Daniel Deng Mario, Khartoum, Sudan

Monday, January 27, 2020 (PW) The vision of the SPLM-IO is to promote the unity of South Sudanese. The SPLM-IO is aware of the fact that for South Sudan to achieve strong national unity, it must eliminate or combat racism, tribalism, political sectarianism, gender insensitivity, religious intolerance and all other forms of discrimination in the country. This is the reason Article 9 clause 9.2 imposes the duty on every member of the SPLM-IO to combat them. In the Preamble of our Constitution, it is our duty is to guide the people of South Sudan and ensure that we protect their hard won freedom, unity in diversity and dignified peace.

In the same Preamble, we acknowledge that people of South Sudan have struggled for generations to achieve their freedom and dignity against a backdrop of long history of conflicts, injustices, dictatorships, poverty, and violation of human rights and constitutional instability that was the hallmark of South Sudan. Thus, the philosophy of the SPLM-IO is to buildthe prosperous nation where citizens enjoy their freedom and unity in diversity which further imposes on us the duty to protect the interest of South Sudan both internally and externally.

In doing that the SPLM-IO is sure of building strong nation based on political social and economic equality.The Preamble of the Constitution of SPLM-IO acknowledges this by stating our Movement is inspired by the vision to build a new nation from which all political, social and economic disparities in the country are removed as enshrined in the SPLM Manifesto. This is the incentive and motivation to participate in leading and contributing effectively in State and Nation building.

The SPLM-IO in its philosophy or ideology is committed to building a better future for the people of South Sudan by establishing a federal democratic and developmental State with an equitable socio-economic and political order based on the principles of freedom, equality, democracy, justice, and respect for human rights, progress and prosperity. Through clause 3.8 of Article 3 the SPLM guarantees freedom of expression, circulation of useful ideas and information sharing within the Movement.

The above freedoms are to be achieved by implementing Article 5 in clause 5.13, which provides the National Policy of the SPLM-IO that is towards self-reliance and economic self-sufficiency and balanced urban-rural development. This is the meaning of taking towns to people not as the government understands it. In plain the SPLM-IO understands taking towns to people to mean taking services to people not the physical towns to people.

The SPLM-IO believes that Article 6 in clause 6.1 is the basis of its vision and goal which are to build a Country, based on a just, democratic, secular system of governance, and popular participation of its entire people. This can be done through creating national consciousness and common purpose through the liberation of the individual and society from all forms of political, economic and social constraints (clause 6.2).

In creating national consciousness and common purpose through the liberation of the individual and society from all forms of political, economic and social constraints, the SPLM-IO looks at education as the major means of achieving it. In understanding of the SPLM-IO, education is the process of facilitating learning, or the acquisition of knowledge, skills, values, beliefs, and habits.Hence, educational methods include teaching, training, storytelling, discussion and directed research. Education frequently takes place under the guidance of educators, however learners can also educate themselves (Dewey, John, Democracy and education, (1994)).

Based on the above definition of education, the SPLM-IO wants education in South Sudan to achieve its main purpose which is the process of facilitating learning, or the acquisition of knowledge, skills, values, beliefs, and habits.These are what constitute the quality education. The quality education is the concept that educational process that instils moral standards to create more civil and democratic societies. Quality education is also called values education, which promotes tolerance and understanding above and beyond our political, cultural and religious differences, putting special emphasis on the defense of human rights, the protection of ethnic minorities and the most vulnerable groups, and the conservation of the environment.

The SPLM-IO therefore believes in equality education policy and education in our understanding isnt the number of schools a country has nor is it determined by a big number of teachers in that country but it is education that enables people to develop all of their attributes and skills to achieve their potential as human beings and members of society. This makes theSPLM-IO believe that education is at the heart of both personal and community development; its mission is to enable each of us, without exception, to develop all our talents to the full and to realize our creative potential, including responsibility for our own lives and achievement of our personal aims.

The SPLM-IO believes in education that promotes the general wellbeing of the people, which is a tool of eradicating poverty and to attain Sustainable Development.Through education therefore, the SPLM-IO hopes to promote and encourage scientific research and adopt appropriate modern technologies. In that respect, education in understanding of the SPLM-IO is to ensure gender equality and promote socio-economic, cultural and political empowerment of women. This will help South Sudanese to realize and ensure economic self-sufficiency and self-reliance for the people.

The education that the SPLM-IO wants to promote is one that gives citizens duties to protect and preserve the environment, ensure sustainable utilization of natural resources and promote environmental sustainability. When the people are independent and educated, they can protect, uphold and promote the unity of the people of the Country.It is on this ground, the SPLM-IO wants to correct the defects or bad education the current government is promoting in the country.

The government of South Sudan is promoting education without any respect and values. It is better even for one to be without documents as those without documents are more favored by the system than those who duly attended classes and legally got the correct papers. Education in South Sudan is money oriented education which renders papers useless. This is explained by the fact that the type of education in South Sudan looks at education as a means of getting rich but not as a means of building the conduct and behavior of the learners.

It is the type of education that resembles education which one of the lecturers in a South African University one time commented on when he wrote an expressive message to his students at the doctorate, masters and bachelors level and placed it at the entrance of the college. That lecturer wrote thus

Collapsing any Nation does not require use of Atomic bombs or the use of Long range missiles. But it requires lowering the quality of Education and allowing cheating in the exams by the students. The patient dies in the hands of the doctor who passed his exams through cheating. And the buildings collapse in the hands of an engineer who passed his exams through cheating. And the money is lost in the hands of an accountant who passed his exams through cheating. And humanity dies in the hands of a religious scholar who passed his exams through cheating.

And justice is lost in the hands of a judge who passed his exams through cheating. And ignorance is rampant in the minds of children who are under the care of a teacher who passed exams through cheating. The collapse of education is the collapse of the Nation Shoddy laws are made by the politician who passed exams through cheating. Half or unverified information is given by the journalist who passed exams through cheating.

Unjustifiable/unpatriotic actions are supported by citizens who passed exams through cheating. Substandard works are done by the public/civil servant who passed exams through cheating. Half/subjective analysis is given by civil society organizations whose leaders passed exams through cheating. Uninspiring leadership is given by the leader who passed exams through cheating. Indeed, the collapse of Education is the collapse of the Nation.

The type of education South Sudan is promoting is one of the confused type which is exactly depicted in the description of education above. The education in our country encourages cheating. It is sad to find that majority of South Sudanese students want papers only just to use them as a means to get something and because of that they do not care about values of education that promotes nation building. As a matter of fact, many students from South Sudan within and abroad have been involved in forgeries and jumping of classes intentionally to finish earlier. For instance, if one was to go to the office of education attach in the Embassy of the Republic of South Sudan in the Republic of Uganda one may find thousands of forged documents and more are in different hands in office in South Sudan. This is bad for the nation building.

South Sudan has collapsed due to the type of education it is promoting. South Sudan is supposed to adopt education of a major tool in nation-building. Quality education helps inconstructing or structuring a national identity through the use of power of the state, which is used in guiding citizens in their education. This is only possible when nation ensures quality education. Education that encourages the university in diversity thataims at the unification of the people within the state so that the nation remains politically stable and viable in the long run. This is according to Harris Mylonas, Legitimate authority in modern national states is connected to popular rule, to majorities. Nation-building is the process through which these majorities are constructed.

In summary, the SPLM-IO wants to use education as a tool for national building and social transformation, which is the basis of its philosophy and ideological orientation. The SPLM-IO takes the initiative to develop the national South Sudanese community through government programs such as military conscription and national building through mass schooling. This involves the use of propaganda or major infrastructure development to foster social harmony and economic growth. The SPLM-IO wants to adopt the Columbia University political scientist Andreas Wimmer three factors tend to determine the success of nation-building over the long-run, which are: the early development of civil-society organizations, the rise of a state capable of providing public goods evenly across a territory, and the emergence of a shared medium of communication.

The author can be reached at mariodeng88@gmail.com

The opinion expressed here is solely the view of thewriter. The veracity of any claim made is the responsibility of the author, notPaanLuel Wl Media (PW) website. If you want to submit an opinion article,commentary or news analysis, please email it to paanluel2011@gmail.com.PaanLuel Wl Media (PW) website do reserve the right to edit or reject materialbefore publication. Please include your full name, a short biography, emailaddress, city and the country you are writing from.

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Education as a Tool for National Building and Social Transformation: The SPLM-IO Philosophy and Ideological Orientation - PaanLuel Wel Media Ltd -...