November 27, 2012, 8:50 AM PST
Takeaway: By the 2030s or 2040s, inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil envisions micro-computers embedded non-invasively in the brain that will act as an interface to a cloud of storage and processing power.
Inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil remains coolly confident in his prediction that by the 2030s, blood-cell sized computers will integrate with the human brain and dramatically expand its cognitive capacity well beyond the neocortexs paltry 300 million or so pattern recognizers.
And why shouldnt Kurzweil be confident? By his count, hes been right about 86 percent of the time, and thats not counting near-misses like predicting wed all be riding in self-driving cars by now.
Advancing technologys capacity to mimic, and eventually deeply integrate with, the human brain was one of the central topics of a public Q&A Kurzweil participated in last night in Louisville, KY as part of a promotional tour for his new book, How to Create a Mind: The Secret of Human Thought Revealed. The new book draws on his deep knowledge of language and cognitive hierarchy to predict how computers will continue to expand humans ability to store and relate information in what we call intelligence.
The talk, which was taped for national airing, ranged widely, as does Kurzweils influence on technology and almost any discussion of what the world will look like 30 years from now. For the most part, Kurzweil steered clear of the headline-grabbing philosophical and ethical implications of his predictions, most notably that supercomputing will create a macro cyber-intelligence in which human consciousness will live forever. (As I imagine many of you will note in the comments section, thats a gross oversimplification of Kurzweils fascinating work.) Instead, Kurzweil focused on the fundamentals of the science behind How to Create a Mind, and how current technology already has greatly augmented those lame 300 million recognizers nature gave us.
Kurzweil said his latest predictions are built around his theory of Pattern Recognition Theory of Mind (PRTM), which describes our cognitive processes as a series of nested activities. In How to Create a Mind, he cites the example of how most people struggle to recite the alphabet backward, although the components of the information are clearly stored in the neocortex. But the pattern or more precisely, the potentially thousands of patterns in which the neocortex connects those data are the essence of intelligence, human or artificial.
This theory is based on Kurzweils own ground-breaking work on optical character and speech recognition software, and a similar theory was employed in large part to program Watson, the supercomputer that recently whooped up on human Jeopardy! champions. Kurzweil defends the Watson project from criticism that the supercomputer was simply running statistical analysis against specialized programming. Watson actually read 200 million Wikipedia pages to build its knowledge store, and the statistical analysis it ran was patterned after the human brains own hierarchical models of data relationships (Kurzweil dubbed them Hierarchical Hidden Markup Models in his speech recognition work). Kurzweil was quick to note that Watson is not as good as an average human when it comes to understanding a single Wikipedia page; its the ability to store massive quantities of information and quickly relate it that makes the computer so smart. He suggested that soon, technology derived from the Watson project will be able to aid physicians in diagnosing illnesses, since doctors dont have enough time or pattern recognizers to read and immediately recall tens of millions of pages of medical research.
And hes confident that his Law of Accelerating Returns will continue to hold true for computational power, even though Intel now predicts Moores Law will run its course by 2022 or so. (If you havent read this excellent TechRepublic post by Peter Cochrane, do so now.) Kurzweil describes Intels 3D structure for transistors as the sixth paradigm of Accelerating Returns (with Moore coming in at number five) that will continue to drive exponential growth in computing power and get us to that technological singularity everyone is so excited (or freaked out) about.
By the 2030s or 2040s, he envisions micro-computers embedded non-invasively in the brain that will act as an interface to a cloud of storage and processing power it will be like having five or 10 neocortexes on demand. And, given that the adult brain often has to overwrite redundant instances of data to learn new things, that wont be so different than our use of external computers to store and process data today. Fondling his own smartphone throughout the hour-long presentation, he repeatedly described such devices as brain extenders.
Read the original here:
Kurzweil: Your brain will connect directly to the cloud within 30 years
