BERKELEY Advances in artificial intelligence and robotics are powering a new wave of automation, with machines matching or outperforming humans in a fast-growing range of tasks, including some that require complex cognitive capabilities and advanced degrees. This process has outpaced the expectations of experts; not surprisingly, its possible adverse effects on both the quantity and quality of employment have raised serious concerns.
To listen to President Donald Trumps administration, one might think that trade remains the primary reason for the loss of manufacturing jobs in the United States. Trumps treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin, has declared that the possible technological displacement of workers is not even on [the administrations] radar screen.
Among economists, however, the consensus is that about 80% of the loss in US manufacturing jobs over the last three decades was a result of labor-saving and productivity-enhancing technological change, with trade coming a distant second. The question, then, is whether we are headed toward a jobless future, in which technology leaves many unemployed, or a good-jobless future, in which a growing number of workers can no longer earn a middle-class income, regardless of their education and skills.
The answer may be some of both. The most recent major study on the topic found that, from 1990 to 2007, the penetration of industrial robots defined as autonomous, automatically controlled, reprogrammable, and multipurpose machines undermined both employment and wages.
Based on the studys simulations, robots probably cost about 400,000 US jobs each year, many of them middle-income manufacturing jobs, especially in industries like automobiles, plastics, and pharmaceuticals. Of course, as a recent Economic Policy Institute report points out, these are not large numbers, relative to the overall size of the US labor market. But local job losses have had an impact: many of the most affected communities were in the Midwestern and southern states that voted for Trump, largely because of his protectionist, anti-trade promises.
As automation substitutes for labor in a growing number of occupations, the impact on the quantity and quality of jobs will intensify. And, as a recent McKinsey Global Institute study shows, there is plenty more room for such substitution. The study, which encompassed 46 countries and 80% of the global labor force, found that relatively few occupations less than 5% could be fully automated. But some 60% of all occupations could have at least 30% of their constitutive tasks or activities automated, based on current demonstrated technologies.
The activities most susceptible to automation in the near term are routine cognitive tasks like data collection and data processing, as well as routine manual and physical activities in structured, predictable environments. Such activities now account for 51% of US wages, and are most prevalent in sectors that employ large numbers of workers, including hotel and food services, manufacturing, and retail trade.
The McKinsey report also found a negative correlation between tasks wages and required skill levels on the one hand, and the potential for their automation on the other. On balance, automation reduces demand for low- and middle-skill labor in lower-paying routine tasks, while increasing demand for high-skill, high-earning labor performing abstract tasks that require technical and problem-solving skills. Simply put, technological change is skill-biased.
Over the last 30 years or so, skill-biased technological change has fueled the polarization of both employment and wages, with median workers facing real wage stagnation and non-college-educated workers suffering a significant decline in their real earnings. Such polarization fuels rising inequality in the distribution of labor income, which in turn drives growth in overall income inequality a dynamic that many economists, from David Autor to Thomas Piketty, have emphasized.
As Michael Spence and I argue in a recent paper, skill-biased and labor-displacing intelligent machines and automation drive income inequality in several other ways, including winner-take-all effects that bring massive benefits to superstars and the luckiest few, as well as rents from imperfect competition and first-mover advantages in networked systems. Returns to digital capital tend to exceed the returns to physical capital and reflect power-law distributions, with an outsize share of returns again accruing to relatively few actors.
Technological change, Spence and I point out, has also had another inequality-enhancing consequence: it has turbo-charged globalization by enabling companies to source, monitor, and coordinate production processes at far-flung locations quickly and cheaply, in order to take advantage of lower labor costs. Given this, it is difficult to distinguish between the effects of technology and the effects of globalization on employment, wages, and income inequality in developed countries.
Our analysis concludes that the two forces reinforce each other, and have helped to fuel the rise in capitals share of national income a key variable in Pikettys theory of wealth inequality. The April 2017 IMF World Economic Outlook reaches a similar conclusion, attributing about 50% of the 30-year decline in labors share of national income in the developed economies to the impact of technology. Globalization, the IMF estimates, contributed about half that much to the decline.
Mounting anxiety about the potential effects of increasingly intelligent tools on employment, wages, and income inequality has led to calls for policies to slow the pace of automation, such as a tax on robots. Such policies, however, would undermine innovation and productivity growth, the primary force behind rising living standards.
Rather than cage the golden goose of technological progress, policymakers should focus on measures that help those who are displaced, such as education and training programs, and income support and social safety nets, including wage insurance, lifetime retraining loans, and portable health and pension benefits. More progressive tax and transfer policies will also be needed, in order to ensure that the income and wealth gains from automation are more equitably shared.
Three years ago, I argued that whether the benefits of smart machines are distributed broadly will depend not on their design, but on the design of the policies surrounding them. Since then, I have not been alone. Unfortunately, Trumps team hasnt gotten the message.
Read more here:
Labor Markets in the Age of Automation by Laura Tyson - Project ... - Project Syndicate
- The Automation Conference - December 9th, 2016 [December 9th, 2016]
- The Best Home Automation Systems of 2016 | Top Ten Reviews - December 24th, 2016 [December 24th, 2016]
- Compact Automation - Actuators, Hydraulic Cylinders, Linear ... - December 24th, 2016 [December 24th, 2016]
- What is Home Automation? | Home Automation Systems - December 24th, 2016 [December 24th, 2016]
- Job Seekers - Automation Personnel Services - December 24th, 2016 [December 24th, 2016]
- iAutomation - December 25th, 2016 [December 25th, 2016]
- Beyond Automation - hbr.org - December 25th, 2016 [December 25th, 2016]
- Automation The Car Company Tycoon Game on Steam - December 25th, 2016 [December 25th, 2016]
- Automation - Wikipedia - December 25th, 2016 [December 25th, 2016]
- Build automation - Wikipedia - December 26th, 2016 [December 26th, 2016]
- Home - Enerwave Home Automation - December 27th, 2016 [December 27th, 2016]
- Automation | Technologies | Systems | Integrator ... - December 27th, 2016 [December 27th, 2016]
- Automation - DESHAZO - December 27th, 2016 [December 27th, 2016]
- Custom Automation & Machine Design | Automation GT - December 27th, 2016 [December 27th, 2016]
- IT Automation - BMC - December 27th, 2016 [December 27th, 2016]
- Werner Electric | Automation - January 28th, 2017 [January 28th, 2017]
- Automationtechies | Automation Engineering Recruiting - January 28th, 2017 [January 28th, 2017]
- Automation - Mazak Corporation - January 28th, 2017 [January 28th, 2017]
- Automation | Food Engineering - January 28th, 2017 [January 28th, 2017]
- Test Automation Services for Development of Regression ... - January 28th, 2017 [January 28th, 2017]
- UI Automation Overview - msdn.microsoft.com - February 5th, 2017 [February 5th, 2017]
- The Evolution of Automation and What It Means for the Integration Industry - Commercial Integrator - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Automation, robots could replace 250000 public sector workers in the next 15 years - Computer Business Review - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- New telecom transformation goals require service automation - TechTarget - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Automation expected to displace insurance underwriters, real estate brokers - CIO Dive - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- The Perks Of Automation And The Risks: Why To Think Twice About Getting Into That Driverless Uber - Forbes - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Voices Reinventing enterprise finance by overhauling AP automation - Accounting Today - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- DFLabs Launches the First Security Automation and Orchestration Platform based Upon Supervised Active Intelligence - Business Wire (press release) - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- VIDEO: Going Big on Automation in a Small Footprint Facility - ENGINEERING.com - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Building a better model of human-automation interaction - Phys.org - Phys.Org - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Cruise Automation Is Testing an App For Hailing Self-Driving Cars - Fortune - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- AlixPartners examines automation in manufacturing and logistics management - Logistics Management - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- Women need to look out for each other in automated workplaces - The Guardian - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- Automation vs. the H-1B visa program: Which matters to employees? - TechTarget - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- Automation is the unavoidable future of the economy - The Daily Cougar - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- Speeders beware: Legislation would allow automation crackdown ... - SFGate - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Robots versus bureaucrats: Why public sector work is ripe for automation - Financial Post - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Rockwell Automation Surged 10% in January as Growth Picked Up Steam - Motley Fool - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Global Medical Automation Market to Reach Approximately $75.6 Billion by 2025 - By End User, Application ... - PR Newswire (press release) - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Automation 'key' to advancing Thai production - The Nation - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- WorkWave Releases New Lead Management And Marketing ... - PR Newswire (press release) - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- 'We employ insane levels of automation' Kris Canekeratne - Times of India - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Most people are optimistic about workplace automation, social data suggests - ZDNet - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Yes, there's a job creation argument for automation and technology ... - The Hill (blog) - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Technobabble: Automation and the modern worker - CIO Dive - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Improving Behavior Through Automation of Vehicle Systems - School Transportation News (blog) - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- Automation Nightmare: Philosopher Warns We Are Creating a World Without Consciousness - Big Think - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- Why Don't We See More Automation in Federal Networks? - Nextgov - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- Automation can revitalize the US workforce - Fox News - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- Readers Write (Feb. 12): The moose population; jobs, start-ups and automation; diversity in the funny pages - Minneapolis Star Tribune - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- Automation can replace bureaucrats and save taxpayers money - Hot Air - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- TigerStop hopes to ride automation to new heights - The Columbian - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- Your Most Valuable Resource is Time Get More of it through Automation - CMS Critic (press release) (blog) - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- What Does Device Automation Mean for Users? - Medical Device and Diagnostics Industry (blog) - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- How To Beat Automation And Not Lose Your Job - Forbes - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Logistics firm gets automation boost - The Straits Times - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- PP Control & Automation launch new video to kick-start exciting plans for 2017 - Manufacturer.com - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- Automation's Impace on Data Center Monitoring Alerts - The Data Center Journal - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- Hollysys Automation Technologies Reports Unaudited Financial Results for the First Half Year and the Second Quarter ... - PR Newswire (press release) - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- 4 Automation Hacks to Save You Money and Manpower - Yahoo Finance - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- Istuary Innovation Group and Bluewrist Partner to Bring Robotics and Automation into China's Manufacturing Sector - Yahoo Finance - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- Redwood Software Named a Strong Performer in Independent Robotic Process Automation (RPA) Report - Yahoo Finance - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- Boeing ramps up automation, innovation as it readies 737MAX | The ... - The Seattle Times - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- Robots and AI are coming for our jobs, but can augmentation save us from automation? - Digital Trends - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- The Impact of Bad Data in Automation: Why Quality Management is Critical - R & D Magazine - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Automation: Are We Empowering Human Interaction Or Displacing It? - Business 2 Community - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Life in the Fast LaneAutomation with Software-Defined Intelligence - InfoWorld - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Luddite Lefty Journalists Apparently Think Workplace Automation is Conservatives' Fault [VIDEO] - Daily Caller - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Will automation define the future of network technology? - TechTarget - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Editorial: Improving automation - The Motorship - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- TigerText Unveils Role-based Scheduling Automation, Amazon Alexa integration - HIT Consultant - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- 89% people want automation at workplace: Adobe - Economic Times - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Delta veers to EV parts, automation - Bangkok Post - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Robotic process automation makes nearshore outsourcing more ... - CIO - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- The working-class job that Trump could save from automation - Washington Post - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- China must be ready for automation - Basic Income News - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Bill Gates Says Robots Should Be Taxed Like Workers - Fortune - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Trump and automation challenge India's IT industry - VentureBeat - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Both Trump and Automation Are Challenging India's IT Industry - Fortune - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- 89% people want automation at workplace: Adobe - ETCIO.com - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]