There is widespread concern these days that robots and automation will soon be permeating much of the American workforce -- taking over factory floors, performing hospitality jobs, becoming ubiquitous in the casinos of Las Vegas. Even Silicon Valley worries about automations effects, although they likely wont be as severe there as elsewhere.
Some recent studies add to these fears, predicting sizable job displacement from numerous forms of automation and artificial intelligence in virtually all corners of the economy. But just as automation will alter industries differently, its effects will be much more intensive in some regional economies.
To estimate the potential effects of automation in those areas, Governing utilized definitions in a University of Oxford study assessing the automatability of individual occupations, then compared them with the Department of Labors most recent occupational employment estimates for the 100 largest U.S. metro areas. About 65 percent of Las Vegas area jobs were found to be susceptible to automation, the highest in any metro area. Much of that stems from the regions large armies of servers, food preparers, cashiers and other occupations thought to be highly automatable. El Paso, Texas, and Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla., similarly employ many of these workers, and registered the next-highest shares of potential automatability.
Professors Carl Frey and Michael Osborne, who conducted the Oxford study, assigned a probability to each occupation by evaluating the extent to which its work activities require creativity, social intelligence and perception, and manipulation. Retail sales accounted for the single largest number of possible job displacements as a result of automation in most regions. The New York metro area, for instance, employs more than 500,000 retail salespersons and cashiers. Predominantly low-wage food service jobs are susceptible to drastic change as well, both in the United States and overseas. Robots will start delivering Dominos pizza orders in Hamburg, Germany, this summer.
Regions with higher education levels should fare better. But the Brookings Institutions Mark Muro points out that theres more to it than that. Physical jobs that are more complex or personalized -- the kinds you wont find on assembly lines -- may actually be less vulnerable to automation than routine office jobs. Often, lower-skill but physical, personal or direct-caring occupations seem quite durable, Muro says.
Middle-class, white-collar jobs, on the other hand, can be significantly liable to automation. A forthcoming report from Brookings reviews hundreds of U.S. occupations, finding use and knowledge of digital skills doubled between 2002 and 2016 and led to a wide array of jobs being digitized, including those of office clerks, customer service representatives and accounting workers. The middle is where there will be some of the most disruption, Muro says.
Some well-paying jobs in demand today arent off-limits from automation, either. A McKinsey Global Institute study concluded that some of the jobs most at risk involve data collecting and processing. Around a quarter of the activities of attorneys and physicians were deemed to be potentially automatable.
Large regions with jobs least susceptible to computerization, using the Oxford studys definitions, are high-tech centers, such as San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif., and Durham-Chapel Hill, N.C. Other metro areas with highly educated workforces such as Washington, D.C., and Boston similarly appear to have fewer jobs vulnerable to displacement. Regional economies relying heavily on education and health care may be less prone to automation because jobs requiring a high degree of human interaction are thought to be among the most resilient.
(Larger markers represent regions more susceptible to automation based on a University of Oxford study. View an interactive map here.)
Of course, widespread automation wont happen overnight. McKinsey projected that half the work activities across the economy today could be automated by 2055. An analysis by PricewaterhouseCoopers concluded that 38 percent of American jobs were at high risk of automation by the early 2030s. McKinsey studied prior cases of technological upheaval, finding that the time between initial commercial availability and peak adoption ranged between eight and 28 years.
The biggest unknown at this point is whether automation will eliminate more jobs than it creates. Automation itself isnt new, and prior advances in technology and industrialization havent brought about higher overall unemployment over the long term. But a growing number of academics are concluding that automation this time around could, in fact, wield noticeably more harmful effects on the workforce. One highly cited paper by economists Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo forecasts lower overall employment resulting from the introduction of more robots into the workplace.
Other researchers, notably ones at the Economic Policy Institute, argue that automation has not led and will not lead to higher joblessness. Experts appear to be divided almost evenly on this question: A 2014 Pew Research Center survey of experts found 48 percent agreeing that automation, robots and artificial intelligence will displace more jobs than they create by 2025.
While many unknowns remain, it wouldnt hurt for policymakers to start thinking about how to respond.
Some state workforce boards are looking at the issue. States already typically maintain labor market information divisions that project which occupations will be in demand in future years. Preparing farms and their workers for automation was the subject of a recent meeting of the California State Board of Food and Agriculture. While there arent yet many programs that specifically address automation, some states are engaged in activities that could help alleviate the impact of job losses. Apprenticeships are gaining a lot of attention and are expanding to health care, finance and other fields where they havent been common before. The model is being modified and theyre really trying to ramp it up, says Scott Sanders, executive director of the National Association of State Workforce Agencies.
For workers displaced by automation, community and technical colleges will play a crucial role in the pursuit of new careers. The federal government, however, has historically focused little on workforce training, spending much less than other wealthy nations do. We dont do training in America, we do education, says Anthony Carnevale, who directs the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce. Our policy is: Go to college.
It was only a few short decades ago that computers began revolutionizing the American workplace. Regions and employers that were early adopters with skilled workforces are well ahead today, and its likely they will continue to be in the years to come.
Read this article:
- Oil & Gas Pipeline and Transportation Automation Market in Industrial Machinery Industry to grow by $ 742.43 million| Emerging Trends, Company... - July 12th, 2021
- Labor shortage will lead to more automation, & responsible teens - New Jersey 101.5 FM - July 12th, 2021
- System Integration Services Market for Industrial Automation in India to reach USD 420.53 million| Discover Company Insights in Technavio - KPVI News... - July 12th, 2021
- Exclusive: TikTok introducing more automation to video removals - Axios - July 12th, 2021
- The Rise of Automation in Analytical Science - Technology Networks - July 12th, 2021
- Innovation Institute incubator to co-develop automation tools with Olive - Modern Healthcare - July 12th, 2021
- Worldwide Industrial Automation Industry to 2027 - Growing Number of SMEs Presents Opportunities - PRNewswire - July 12th, 2021
- Robotic Process Automation Sweeps Across the Healthcare Industry - Electronic Design - July 12th, 2021
- Everyone's Talking Automation: What does HR Software Really Do? - State-Journal.com - July 12th, 2021
- The pandemic has brought more automation, which could have long-term impacts for workers. - The New York Times - July 12th, 2021
- Shanghai Targets 47 Million TEU Annually Through Growth and Automation - The Maritime Executive - July 12th, 2021
- Restaurants are starting to hire robots instead of people who are demanding higher pay - Business Insider - July 12th, 2021
- Provider-owned Innovation Lab partners with Olive to build automation tools - MedCity News - July 12th, 2021
- The lab automation market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.53% during 2021-2026 - GlobeNewswire - July 12th, 2021
- Real estate is a people business, but automation can help - HousingWire - July 12th, 2021
- Home Automation For Fans Of Quick-and-Dirty Solutions - Hackaday - July 12th, 2021
- Remote Access in the Continuous Processing Industry Take Five with Automation World - Automation World - July 12th, 2021
- Banking CFOs need to step up efforts in ESG, automation and crypto support - Accenture study - IT Brief Australia - July 12th, 2021
- Automation Market in Textile Industry: Forecast of Healthy YoY Growth Rate at 1.20% - PRNewswire - July 12th, 2021
- Insights on the Industrial Automation Global Market to 2027 - Featuring ABB, Siemens and Schneider Electric Among Others - Yahoo Finance - July 12th, 2021
- OMD Sees Campaign Results Skyrocket by Using IAS Automated Tag with Google - Yahoo Finance - July 12th, 2021
- Adding Automation to PRNT's 3D Printing Thesis - ETF Trends - July 12th, 2021
- WISeKey combats cybercrime with HIRO Cybersecurity Knowledge Automation, the first ever integrated cybersecurity automation solution which uses... - July 12th, 2021
- Restaurant owner: Automated drive-thrus trump $15 wages for business - Business Insider - July 12th, 2021
- Introducing FlexRule X, the Next Generation of End-to-End Decision Automation Platform: Ready for Early Access - PRNewswire - July 12th, 2021
- Network Automation Market to Hit USD 22.58 Billion by 2027 Backed by Increasing Adoption of Connected Devices Worldwide, reports Fortune Business... - July 12th, 2021
- Building Competitive Advantage With Automation - Broadband Communities - April 5th, 2021
- What Do We Mean by Automation? - Forbes - April 5th, 2021
- NG automation to catapult productivity and profitability with edge computing - FutureIoT - April 5th, 2021
- How automating and streamlining can provide a treasure trove of data - Smart Business Network - April 5th, 2021
- Addressing great need for automation of composites - Advanced Manufacturing - April 5th, 2021
- NASAs small business picks take on automation in space - TechCrunch - April 5th, 2021
- Cockpit automation leading to airline industry complacency - Airline Ratings - April 5th, 2021
- HAL in Permian Automation Breakthrough and More - Rigzone News - April 5th, 2021
- Worldwide Robotic Process Automation Industry (2021 to 2026) - Featuring Automation Anywhere, NICE and Blue Prism Among Others -... - April 5th, 2021
- Deloitte and UiPath Team on Intelligent Automation Solutions Built for the Oracle ERP Platform - PRNewswire - April 5th, 2021
- The benefits of hyper-automation for banking - Finextra - Finextra - April 5th, 2021
- Test automation tools: 8 trends and techniques to watch - TechBeacon - April 5th, 2021
- CrowdStrike Releases 2021 Cybersecurity Global Threat Report - Automation World - April 5th, 2021
- Is the Future of Manufacturing Automated or Autonomous? - Entrepreneur - April 5th, 2021
- Diving Into the Boost for Automation in the Claims and Appraisal Process - glassBYTEs - April 5th, 2021
- How does your company help customers with their automated testing initiatives? - SDTimes.com - April 5th, 2021
- 78% of IT Leaders Plan to Increase Spending on Automation Initiatives Post-Pandemic - Business Wire - April 5th, 2021
- As Automation Expands in the Nordic Region, Look to 'GXF' - ETF Trends - April 5th, 2021
- Rockwell Automation Stock Appears To Be Significantly Overvalued - Yahoo Finance - April 5th, 2021
- Klaviyo Unveils New Marketing Automation Innovations with Personalized Benchmarks Tool and Conversational SMS - Business Wire - April 5th, 2021
- Save Time & Money With Automated Password Resets - Security Boulevard - April 5th, 2021
- Global Building Automation and Controls Market (2020 to 2027) - Opportunity Analysis and Industry Forecasts - ResearchAndMarkets.com - Business Wire - April 5th, 2021
- Strategy Analytics: Automation, IoT, Cloud and 5G Accelerate the Growth of Unified Endpoint Security Adoption - Business Wire - April 5th, 2021
- Latest innovative report on Robotic Process Automation in Finance Market by 2026 with top key players like WorkFusion, Automation Anywhere, Blue... - April 5th, 2021
- DIY Home Automation Market Research Report 2021 | Industry Analysis, Share, Growth, Trend and Top Key Players KSU | The Sentinel Newspaper - KSU |... - April 5th, 2021
- Making It Work: Automation firm stays sharp with robotics for use in pharma industry - Business Post - April 5th, 2021
- The Evolution of Automation Technologies - Security Boulevard - February 17th, 2021
- Automation in the Age of COVID-19 - Advanced Manufacturing - February 17th, 2021
- Analysts need advanced automation tools to reduce fear of missing incidents - Help Net Security - Help Net Security - February 17th, 2021
- Salesforce: Combining AI and automation can give us superpowers and make us more productive - ZDNet - February 17th, 2021
- Notable Health seeks to improve COVID-19 vaccine administration through intelligent automation - TechCrunch - February 17th, 2021
- 3 Ways Intelligent Process Automation (IPA) is Knocking at the Doors of the Recruitment World - BBN Times - February 17th, 2021
- Automation in Retail to scale new heights and pave way for dynamism - Latest Digital Transformation Trends | Cloud News - Wire19 - February 17th, 2021
- How to automate while maintaining security and compliance | SC Media - SC Magazine - February 17th, 2021
- 3D-Printing Is Speeding Up the Automation of Construction - Metropolis - Metropolis Magazine - February 17th, 2021
- The 58th Design Automation Conference Has Been Rescheduled for December 2021 - Business Wire - February 17th, 2021
- Explosion Proof Equipment in Automation and Control Systems Market In Depth Research Report 2021-2026 by Regional Analysis and Key Players Profiles |... - February 17th, 2021
- Verizon targets robot automation with Incubed IT deal - Mobile World Live - February 17th, 2021
- OPEX Corporation Unveils New Branding to Highlight Automation Technology Innovation - IT News Online - February 17th, 2021
- Lab Automation Workcells Market Overview By Trends, Industry Top Manufactures, Size, Industry Growth Analysis & Forecast Till 2026 KSU | The... - February 17th, 2021
- ActiveCampaign furthers commitment to customer success by bringing together 500+ automation recipes with 125+ new email design templates - PRNewswire - February 17th, 2021
- Increase Resource Efficiencies and Revenue with Automation - Lexology - February 17th, 2021
- Leading Demand Generation Company Switches to TEB Business Automation from Salesforce - IT News Online - February 17th, 2021
- Building Automation System Market 2021 Industry Outlook, Comprehensive Insights, Growth and Forecast 2026 KSU | The Sentinel Newspaper - KSU | The... - February 17th, 2021
- Industry Insights: The future of camera control and automation - NewscastStudio - February 17th, 2021
- Best Research Report on Global Industrial Wireless Automation Market with New Business Opportunities by Forecast to 2027 | Siemens, Honeywell... - February 17th, 2021
- More automated traffic enforcement could come to Arlington in the name of social justice - FOX 5 DC - February 17th, 2021
- Harting hosts industrial automation webinar series - Foodprocessing - February 17th, 2021
- Salesforce offers intelligent document automation in conjunction with AWS tool - Healthcare IT News - February 17th, 2021
- Automation Wont Take All The Manufacturing Jobs And Covid Proves It. Heres How - Forbes - February 4th, 2021
- CAQH 2020 Index: Automating Healthcare Administrative Transactions Has Reduced Annual Costs by $122 Billion, $16.3 Billion More Can Be Saved Through... - February 4th, 2021
- Nigeria: Munich Re bets on automation to strengthen the insurance market - The Africa Report - February 4th, 2021
- Digitalization and Manufacturing Automation to Drive the High-performance Plastics Market to $2 Billion by 2027 - PR Newswire India - February 4th, 2021
- Research shows that automation can make recruitment more human - PRNewswire - February 4th, 2021