Disruption of the job market and the economy from automation and the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) is one of the primary ideas animating Andrew YangAndrew YangOutsider candidates outpoll insider candidates Is Andrew Yang's pivot working? New Quinnipiac poll finds Biden leading in New Hampshire MOREs surprising campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination. Alone among the candidates, Yang is directly engaging with one of the central forces that will shape our futures.
Over the past ten years, I have written two books on the subject of artificial intelligence and its impact on the job market and the economy. Ive spoken at dozens of events in more than 30 countries. The majority of my presentations were given to what you might call elite audiences executives, technologists, Wall Street financiers, economists, government technocrats and so forth. Ive found that, virtually without exception, these people take the specter of technological disruption seriously.
To be sure, not everyone buys into the possibility of widespread unemployment resulting from automation. But even the most skeptical generally recognize that the speed at which AI is advancing could create a stark divide, with a large and growing fraction of our workforce left struggling to maintain a foothold in the economy.
Arecent report from the consulting firm Deloittefound that, among more than a thousand surveyed American executives, 63 percent agreed with the statement that to cut costs, my company wants to automate as many jobs as possible using AI, and 36 percent already believe that job losses from AI-enabled automation should be viewed as an ethical issue. In other words, while media pundits dismiss worries about automation, executives at Americas largest companies are actively planning for it.
It may seem odd to worry about AI and automation at a time when the headline unemployment rate is below 4 percent.But it is important to remember that this metric only captures people who are actively seeking work. Consider that, in 1965,only 3 percentof American men between the ages of 25 and 54 old enough to have completed education but too young to retire were neither working nor actively looking for employment. Today, that number is about 11 percent.
In other words, the percentage of working-age men completely disenfranchised from employment markets has nearly tripled.The economist and former Treasury secretary Laurence Summershas estimatedthat, by 2050, that number could more than double again to a quarter or even a third.
Would it be unreasonable to imagine that an economist in 1965 might have uttered the words mass unemployment if he or she had been told that the percentage of men detached from the workforce would soar in this way?To be sure, technology is not the only factor here but it is almost certainly playing a central role.
Disruption from artificial intelligence will not be a straightforward narrative of robots stealing jobs. Instead, it will include job de-skilling, in which technology makes what was once well-paid work accessible to minimum-wage or gig-economy workers with little or no training.The story so far has largely been about the elimination of solid middle-class jobs requiring moderate skill levels and the emergence of lower-paying jobs in the service sector. Indeed, the economys propensity to create large numbers of low-wage service jobs has been one of the main factors that has led to the current low levels of unemployment.
However, it is very unlikely that these jobs will continue to be created at the current pace.
The robots that already play a vital role in Amazon warehouses will soon become more dexterous and able to perform many of the tasks that now require people. Automation will inevitably invade the fast-food industry, and traditional retailers will have little choice but to turn to labor-saving technology in order to remain viable in a sector increasingly dominated by Amazon.
Nor will more educated white-collar workers get a pass on the AI disruption.Jobs that involve relatively predictable manipulation of information routine quantitative analysis, preparing periodic reports and so forth will, in many cases, be easier to automate than lower-paid work that requires physical interaction.
All this is sure to unfold in an unpredictable, sporadic way. Rather than a robot or an algorithm directly replacing a worker, we are likely to see organizations completely restructure work environments and redefine job descriptions, as more and more of the tasks now performed by people are automated.The result, in most cases, will be fewer jobs and, often, those jobs will be held by different workers with completely different skill sets and talents, and perhaps in different geographic locations.
The Democratic Partys agenda increasingly is being shaped by the Social Justice Left. If you count yourself among this movement, you should know that AI-driven automation is not a fringe issue, nor can it be dismissed as a tech bro concern.Rather, it is poised to amplify the types of inequality that you care most about. Arecent analysis from McKinsey, for example, found that automation will disproportionately impact African Americans, likely worsening the racial income and wealth gaps.The fact is that virtually everything Democrats care about inequality, health care, poverty, the environment, education, the prosperity of the middle class will be deeply influenced by relentless advances in artificial intelligence.
And yet, inexplicably, Andrew Yang is currently the only presidential candidate willing to speak honestly about the magnitude of the coming challenge and to propose solutions.
Perhaps that is why his candidacy has taken the political sphere by surprise. For a candidate who started literally at zero, with no political experience and, perhaps more importantly, no name recognition, he has gained remarkable traction and left some professional politicians including governors and U.S. senators in the dust in terms of polling, fundraising and qualifying for the partys debates. It demonstrates how his concerns about the future resonate with many voters even as much of the media hasconsistently marginalized, ignored or dismissed his campaign as unserious and, in a number of cases,quite literally erasedorskipped over it.
Like all new technologies, AI will be a dual-edged sword: It will bring new dangers, along with vast new opportunities.Ensuring that those opportunities are maximized and leveraged in an inclusive way, on behalf of everyone at every level of society, looms as one of the most vital and daunting challenges we will face in the coming years and decades.
Andrew Yang, and his warnings about the impact of AI and automation, should be taken seriously.
Martin Ford is a futurist and the author of three books, including theNew York TimesbestsellingRise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future(2015)andArchitects of Intelligence: The truth about AI from the people building it. (2018) He is the consulting artificial intelligence expert for the newRobotics and AIETFfrom Lyxor/Societe Generale, which focuses on investing in companies that will be significant participants in the AI and robotics revolution. Follow him on Twitter@MfordFuture.
Read more from the original source:
- Artificial intelligence: The rising star of education - Daily Sabah - December 3rd, 2019
- Asia-Pacific Digital Transformation Markets 2019-2024: Focus on 5G, Artificial Intelligence, Internet of Things, and Smart Cities -... - December 3rd, 2019
- Opinion | The artificial intelligence frontier of economic theory - Livemint - December 3rd, 2019
- Seminar - Artificial Intelligence and its Impact on Young People - Council of Europe - December 3rd, 2019
- Triple your CX impact with artificial intelligence and these five tactics - CXNetwork - December 3rd, 2019
- BioSig Technologies Announces New Collaboration on Development of Artificial Intelligence Solutions in Healthcare - GlobeNewswire - December 3rd, 2019
- Amazon makes three major AI announcements during re:Invent 2019 - AI News - December 3rd, 2019
- The impact of artificial intelligence on humans - Bangkok Post - December 3rd, 2019
- What Jobs Will Artificial Intelligence Affect? - EHS Today - December 3rd, 2019
- India wants to be on the cusp of artificial intelligence but lacks the laws to back it up - Business Insider India - December 3rd, 2019
- Artificial intelligence use 'must be transparent and accountable' - The Irish News - December 3rd, 2019
- AI IN BANKING: Artificial intelligence could be a near $450 billion opportunity for banks - here are the strat - Business Insider India - December 3rd, 2019
- Artificial Intelligence will change the economic future - Industry Global News 24 - December 3rd, 2019
- THE AI IN TRANSPORTATION REPORT: How automakers can use artificial intelligence to cut costs, open new revenue - Business Insider India - December 3rd, 2019
- How Artificial Intelligence will impact the human workforce - RCR Wireless News - December 3rd, 2019
- It Pays To Break Artificial Intelligence Out Of The Lab, Study Confirms - Forbes - December 3rd, 2019
- Dyno Therapeutics Announces Research Published in Science Enabling Artificial Intelligence Approach to Create New AAV Capsids for Gene Therapies -... - December 3rd, 2019
- Artificial Intelligence, climate change and the U.S military - The Red (Team) Analysis Society - December 3rd, 2019
- The Best Artificial Intelligence Stocks of 2019 -- and The Top AI Stock for 2020 - The Motley Fool - December 3rd, 2019
- Verata Health Named Leading Innovative Artificial Intelligence Company by the American Hospital Association - PR Web - December 3rd, 2019
- How To Get Your Rsum Past The Artificial Intelligence Gatekeepers - Forbes - November 20th, 2019
- Highlights: Addressing fairness in the context of artificial intelligence - Brookings Institution - November 20th, 2019
- Newsrooms have five years to embrace artificial intelligence or they risk becoming irrelevant - Journalism.co.uk - November 20th, 2019
- The Initiative for Indigenous Futures on Artificial Intelligence - Cool Hunting - November 20th, 2019
- 4 Reasons to Use Artificial Intelligence in Your Next Embedded Design - DesignNews - November 20th, 2019
- Colorado at the forefront of AI and what it means for jobs of the future - The Denver Channel - November 20th, 2019
- Artificial intelligence has become a driving force in everyday life, says LivePerson CEO - CNBC - November 20th, 2019
- Two-thirds of employees would trust a robot boss more than a real one - World Economic Forum - November 20th, 2019
- Artificial intelligence engines have implicit biases - The Daily Titan - November 20th, 2019
- Microsoft Aims to Bring AI to Mainstream Collaboration with Project Cortex - Channel Futures - November 20th, 2019
- Scientists used IBM Watson to discover an ancient humanoid stick figure - Business Insider - November 20th, 2019
- Is it worth investing in artificial intelligence? - ITProPortal - November 20th, 2019
- The Future Of Artificial Intelligence In Retail - Digital Information World - November 20th, 2019
- Artificial Intelligence Will Enable the Future, Blockchain Will Secure It - Cointelegraph - November 20th, 2019
- Elon Musk's AI warning: Artificial Intelligence is a 'potential danger to the public' - Express.co.uk - November 20th, 2019
- Epileptic Seizure Prediction becomes much easier with the new Artificial Intelligence technology - Digital Information World - November 20th, 2019
- Public fears about artificial intelligence are 'not the fault of A.I.' itself, tech exec says - CNBC - November 20th, 2019
- Three Legal Areas to Think About When Using Artificial Intelligence in the Workplace - JD Supra - November 20th, 2019
- Intel to Expand Role in High-Performance Computing and Artificial Intelligence - Financialbuzz.com - November 20th, 2019
- AI IN BANKING: Artificial intelligence could be a near $450 billion opportunity for banks - here are the strat - Business Insider India - November 20th, 2019
- Is it worth investing in artificial intelligence? - ITProPortal - November 13th, 2019
- 13 Mind-Blowing Things Artificial Intelligence Can Already Do Today - Forbes - November 13th, 2019
- Is Cloud AI a Fad? The Shortcomings of Cloud Artificial Intelligence - CTOvision - November 13th, 2019
- AI Can Tell If You're Going to Die Soon. We Just Don't Know How It Knows. - Popular Mechanics - November 13th, 2019
- How can artificial intelligence improve the superyacht industry? - Superyacht News - The Superyacht Report - November 13th, 2019
- Artificial Intelligence Is Too Important to Leave to Google and Facebook Alone - The New York Times - November 13th, 2019
- The Army Is Bringing Artificial Intelligence To Its Armored Vehicles - The National Interest Online - November 13th, 2019
- Artificial intelligence to run the chemical factories of the future | Illinois - University of Illinois News Bureau - November 13th, 2019
- Artificial intelligence to pave way for new professions - Daily Sabah - November 13th, 2019
- "Artificial intelligence is not the future - it is happening right now" - Journalism.co.uk - November 13th, 2019
- Artificial intelligence (AI): what you need to know about the megatrend - Finance Market News - November 13th, 2019
- Artificial Intelligence sales platform, Enerjoy, Launches its series A fundraising round at an event held in SAP Next Gen HQ in NYC - PRNewswire - November 13th, 2019
- AI deemed 'too dangerous to release' makes it out into the world - The Independent - November 13th, 2019
- The ethical, social and Jewish implications of Artificial Intelligence - Jewish News - November 13th, 2019
- Vision Artificial Intelligence Can Help Minimize Angst, For Companies And Customers, In The Relocation/Moving Industry - Forbes - November 13th, 2019
- Artificial Intelligence And Ethics: The Need For EQ Along With IQ - Express Computer - November 13th, 2019
- JP Morgan Invests Undisclosed Amount in Limeglass, an Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Research Analysis Firm - Crowdfund Insider - November 13th, 2019
- These artificial intelligence bartenders are the future of festive parties - Prestige Online - November 13th, 2019
- AI IN BANKING: Artificial intelligence could be a near $450 billion opportunity for banks - here are the strat - Business Insider India - November 13th, 2019
- Artificial Intelligence Is Being Used To Diagnose Disease And Design New Drugs - Forbes - October 1st, 2019
- Artificial Intelligence is driving the UK's NextGen jobs - Study International News - October 1st, 2019
- Artificial Intelligence Is Creating New Art From The Work Of A Deceased Manga Great - Kotaku - October 1st, 2019
- Fearing a future of artificial intelligence haves and have-nots - The Seattle Times - October 1st, 2019
- Zen and the art of artificial intelligence - The Drum - October 1st, 2019
- Patenting Considerations for Artificial Intelligence in Biotech and Synthetic Biology - JD Supra - October 1st, 2019
- New Survey Reveals that HR Leaders Are Prioritizing Artificial Intelligence to Improve the Employee Experience - PRNewswire - October 1st, 2019
- Artificial Intelligence is driving the next generation of jobs in the UK - Information Age - October 1st, 2019
- Novartis and Microsoft announce collaboration to transform medicine with artificial intelligence - GlobeNewswire - October 1st, 2019
- Science centers adults-only event has artificial intelligence (and spooky) theme - Orlando Sentinel - October 1st, 2019
- Is Artificial Intelligence a danger to humanity? Take a look at the truth - India Today - October 1st, 2019
- Pope Francis on artificial intelligence: Does it really risk barbarism? - Verdict - October 1st, 2019
- New Artificial Intelligence Tool Will Show Nonprofits What's Working and What's Not - PRNewswire - October 1st, 2019
- On-Demand Concierge & Life-Saving Artificial Intelligence Now Available to 5.3M California Medicare Recipients Through Alignment Health Plan -... - October 1st, 2019
- Will AI really transform education? - The Hechinger Report - October 1st, 2019
- Spending on Artificial Intelligence systems in the Middle East & Africa to top $374 million in 2020 - TelecomTV - October 1st, 2019
- AI IN BANKING: Artificial intelligence could be a near $450 billion opportunity for banks - here are the strat - Business Insider India - October 1st, 2019
- How Artificial Intelligence Is Changing The Landscape Of Digital Marketing - Inc42 Media - October 1st, 2019
- THE AI IN TRANSPORTATION REPORT: How automakers can use artificial intelligence to cut costs, open new revenue - Business Insider India - October 1st, 2019
- Researchers Are Using Artificial Intelligence to Reconstruct Ancient Games - Atlas Obscura - October 1st, 2019
- atheism | Definition, Philosophy, & Comparison to ... - May 28th, 2019