Good things from bad motives?

Today we use statistical methods for purposes as computing GDP & planning healthcare & education, but statistical methods originated with much darker motives, says Ajit Balakrishnan

If you ever require evidence that a group of talented scientists can pursue completely misguided and inhumane goals for years but, in the process, invent tools and techniques of fundamental benefit to humanity, one need only turn to the science of statistics.

Today we use statistical methods for purposes as diverse as computing gross domestic product and planning healthcare and education - but statistical methods originated with much darker motives.

The story of modern statistics starts in the late 19th century with Francis Galton and his preoccupation with establishing that human ability was inherited.

He envisioned a world in which intellectually gifted children would be awarded scholarships and given the best possible education and - hold your breath - the not-so-talented "could find a welcome and a refuge in celibate monasteries or sisterhoods".

The remarkable thing is that while pursuing these crackpot notions, Galton also invented the statistical concept of "standard deviation", the notion that data such as the heights of men would cluster around a mean (or central tendency) and vary from this mean in a measureable form, which was "standard deviation".

This concept of standard deviation is a defining foundation for the modern science of statistics. It is used in applications such as sports (comparing the batting performance of cricketers), weather (in pronouncing whether a day is hotter or colder than normal) and finance (in measuring the risk of a portfolio of stocks or bonds).

Galton was a member of a distinguished family of bankers and thinkers - Charles Darwin was a cousin. The publication of The Origin of Species, in fact, was an inspiration for Galton. It is probably true to say that the Europe of Galton's time, the late 19th century and early 20th century, was as a whole preoccupied with inherited and racial differences and that Galton was merely a product of his time.

Galton invented the term "eugenics" and was the president of the "Eugenics Education Society", which, among other things, advocated financial incentives for marriage between eminent families as a way of improving the stock of citizens.

By all accounts, this was a fashionable place to be at: Winston Churchill was a frequent attendee at their meetings.

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Good things from bad motives?

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