Spacex is estimating they wil be able to achieve $140,000 per ton for the trips to Mars. If a person plus their luggage is less than that, taking into account food consumption and life support, the cost of moving to Mars could ultimately drop below $100,000.
Cost will be brought down 5 million percent with * fully reusable rocket * orbital refueling * Propellent production on Mars * CH4 / O2 DEEP-CRYO Methalox fuel
The Spacex ITS (Interplanetary Transport Systme) rocket booster is really a scaled-up version of the Falcon 9 booster. There are a lot of similarities, such as the grid fins and clustering a lot of engines at the base. The big differences are that the primary structure is an advanced form of carbon fiber as opposed to aluminum lithium, we use autogenous pressurization, and we get rid of the helium and the nitrogen.
Spcex has been able to optimize the propellant needed for boost back and landing to get it down to about 7% of the lift-off propellant load. With some optimization, maybe we can get it down to about 6%.
Spacex is now getting quite comfortable with the accuracy of the landing of rockets. With the addition of maneuvering thrusters, they think they can actually put the booster right back on the launch stand. Then, those fins at the base are essentially centering features to take out any minor position mismatch at the launch site.
The Raptor engine is going to be the highest chamber pressure engine of any kind ever built, and probably the highest thrust-to-weight. It is a full-flow staged combustion engine, which maximizes the theoretical momentum that you can get out of a given source fuel and oxidizer. We subcool the oxygen and methane to densify it. Compared with when used close to their boiling points in most rockets, in our case, we load the propellants close to their freezing point. That can result in a density improvement of around 10%12%, which makes an enormous difference in the actual result of the rocket. It gets rid of any cavitation risk for the turbo pumps, and it makes it easier to feed a high-pressure turbo pump if you have very cold propellant.
One of the keys here, though, is the vacuum version of the Raptor having a 382-second ISP. This is critical to the whole Mars mission and we are confident we can get to that number or at least within a few seconds of that number, ultimately maybe even exceeding it slightly.
Over time, there were would be many spaceships. You would ultimately have upwards of 1,000 or more spaceships waiting in orbit. Hence, the Mars Colonial fleet would depart en masse.
It makes sense to load the spaceships into orbit because you have got 2 years to do so, and then you can make frequent use of the booster and the tanker to get really heavy reuse out of those. With the spaceship, you get less reuse because you have to consider how long it is going to lastmaybe 30 years, which might be perhaps 1215 flights of the spaceship at most. Therefore, you really want to maximize the cargo of the spaceship and reuse the booster and the tanker as much as possible. Hence, the ship goes to Mars, gets replenished, and then returns to Earth.
This ship will be relatively small compared with the Mars interplanetary ships of the future. However, it needs to fit 100 people or thereabouts in the pressurized section, carry the luggage and all of the unpressurized cargo to build propellant plants, and to build everything from iron foundries to pizza joints to you name itwe need to carry a lot of cargo.
The threshold for a self-sustaining city on Mars or a civilization would be a million people. If you can only go every 2 years and if you have 100 people per ship, that is 10,000 trips. Therefore, at least 100 people per trip is the right order of magnitude, and we may end up expanding the crew section and ultimately taking more like 200 or more people per flight in order to reduce the cost per person.
However, 10,000 flights is a lot of flights, so ultimately you would really want in the order of 1,000 ships. It would take a while to build up to 1,000 ships. How long it would take to reach that million-person threshold, from the point at which the first ship goes to Mars would probably be somewhere between 20 and 50 total Mars rendezvousso it would take 40100 years to achieve a fully self-sustaining civilization on Mars.
Read more from the original source:
The 2016 Spacex Mars Colonization plan has been published ...
- The Case for Colonizing Mars, by Robert Zubrin - April 26th, 2014 [April 26th, 2014]
- Volunteers For Mars Colonization Wanted: Apply Today [VIDEO] - April 26th, 2014 [April 26th, 2014]
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- NASA Wants to Send Plant Life to Mars in 2020 - May 8th, 2014 [May 8th, 2014]
- Private Mars One Colony Project: 705 Astronaut Candidates Pass Latest Cut - May 8th, 2014 [May 8th, 2014]
- Mars colonization a suicide mission, says Canadian astronaut - May 10th, 2014 [May 10th, 2014]
- Mars Colonization By: Alexis & Anna - Video - May 25th, 2014 [May 25th, 2014]
- One-Way Mars Colony Project Launches Suborbital Spaceflight Raffle - September 5th, 2014 [September 5th, 2014]
- Frankly, the Military Industrial Complex should become a Mars Colonization Project - Video - October 8th, 2014 [October 8th, 2014]
- MIT Students Bash Mars Colonization Plan - October 14th, 2014 [October 14th, 2014]
- Humans may only survive for 68 days on Red Planet - October 16th, 2014 [October 16th, 2014]
- Private Mars Colony Project May Not Be Feasible, Study Suggests - October 17th, 2014 [October 17th, 2014]
- How to get to Mars with tons of loads! - Video - November 7th, 2014 [November 7th, 2014]
- The only realistic video about Human Mars Exploration! - Video - November 10th, 2014 [November 10th, 2014]
- It's All Going Wrong! - Sol 0 #4 - Video - December 19th, 2014 [December 19th, 2014]
- Pesky Rock Removal! - Sol 0 #3 - Video - December 19th, 2014 [December 19th, 2014]
- Lets Play Sol 0 Blind 2 - Video - December 22nd, 2014 [December 22nd, 2014]
- Let's Play Sol 0-Mars Colonization #001 - Auf geht's zum Mars - Video - December 22nd, 2014 [December 22nd, 2014]
- Sol 0 - Mars Colonization - Part 1 - The Beginning! - Video - December 23rd, 2014 [December 23rd, 2014]
- Lets Play Sol 0 Blind 3 - Video - December 24th, 2014 [December 24th, 2014]
- Let's Play Sol 0-Mars Colonization #002 - Wir bauen weiter - Video - December 26th, 2014 [December 26th, 2014]
- Sol 0 - Mars Colonization - Part 2 - Big Bad Rocket! - Video - December 26th, 2014 [December 26th, 2014]
- Lets Play Sol 0 Blind 4 - Video - December 28th, 2014 [December 28th, 2014]
- Sol 0 - Mars Colonization - Part 3 - Colonist Failure! - Video - December 28th, 2014 [December 28th, 2014]
- Betrayed.. By a Rock! - Sol 0 #8 - Video - December 30th, 2014 [December 30th, 2014]
- Sol 0 - Mars Colonization - Part 5 - Asteroids! - Video - December 31st, 2014 [December 31st, 2014]
- Now We're Getting Somewhere! - Sol 0 #7 - Video - December 31st, 2014 [December 31st, 2014]
- Sol 0 - Mars Colonization - Part 4 - Solar Panels! - Video - December 31st, 2014 [December 31st, 2014]
- Lets Play Sol 0 Blind 6 - Video - January 2nd, 2015 [January 2nd, 2015]
- Fin! - Sol 0 #11 - Video - January 2nd, 2015 [January 2nd, 2015]
- Endgame's a Comin'! - Sol 0 #9 - Video - January 2nd, 2015 [January 2nd, 2015]
- Lets Play Sol 0 Blind 5 - Video - January 5th, 2015 [January 5th, 2015]
- Sol 0 - Mars Colonization - Part 7 - Repairs! - Video - January 5th, 2015 [January 5th, 2015]
- Sol 0 - Mars Colonization - Part 6 - Colonists! - Video - January 5th, 2015 [January 5th, 2015]
- Sol 0 - Mars Colonization - Part 8 - Food Crisis! - Video - January 9th, 2015 [January 9th, 2015]
- Sol 0 - Mars Colonization - Part 9 - Nuclear Explosion! - Video - January 11th, 2015 [January 11th, 2015]
- Elon Musk talks Mars colonization, Kerbal Space Program - January 14th, 2015 [January 14th, 2015]
- Elon Musk plans Seattle office for Mars colonization - January 14th, 2015 [January 14th, 2015]
- Let's Play Sol 0-Mars Colonization #004 [Deutsch] - Auf der Suche nach Wasser - Video - January 14th, 2015 [January 14th, 2015]
- Sol 0 - Mars Colonization - Part 10 - Finale! - Video - January 14th, 2015 [January 14th, 2015]
- Sol 0 - Mars Colonization - Season 2- Part 1 - Brand New Start! - Video - January 17th, 2015 [January 17th, 2015]
- Lets Play Sol 0 Blind 7 - Video - January 20th, 2015 [January 20th, 2015]
- Let's Play Sol 0-Mars Colonization #003 [Deutsch] - Mehr Leben auf dem Mars - Video - January 20th, 2015 [January 20th, 2015]
- Sol 0 - Mars Colonization - Season 2 - Part 3 - Brand New Start! - Video - January 25th, 2015 [January 25th, 2015]
- Sol 0 - Mars Colonization - Season 2 - Part 4 - Brand New Start! - Video - January 26th, 2015 [January 26th, 2015]
- Or.. Not Endgame! - Sol 0 #10 - Video - January 26th, 2015 [January 26th, 2015]
- Elon Musk and the SpaceX Odyssey: the Path from Falcon 9 to Mars Colonization Transporter - January 29th, 2015 [January 29th, 2015]
- Sol 0 - Mars Colonization - Season 2 - Part 5 - Brand New Start! - Video - January 29th, 2015 [January 29th, 2015]
- Let's Play Sol 0-Mars Colonization #006 [Deutsch] - Aufrsten? - Video - January 31st, 2015 [January 31st, 2015]
- Sol 0 - Mars Colonization - Season 2 - Part 7 - Brand New Start! - Video - February 1st, 2015 [February 1st, 2015]
- Sol 0 - Mars Colonization - Season 2 - Part 6 - Brand New Start! - Video - February 1st, 2015 [February 1st, 2015]
- Sol 0 - Mars Colonization - Season 2 - Part 8 - Brand New Start! - Video - February 4th, 2015 [February 4th, 2015]
- Deconstructing Consciousness,SpaceX Ritual=Mars Colonization, Microsofts HoloLens=Simulated Reality - Video - February 4th, 2015 [February 4th, 2015]
- Sol 0 - Mars Colonization - Season 2 - Part 10 - Brand New Start! - Video - February 6th, 2015 [February 6th, 2015]
- Sol 0 - Mars Colonization - Season 2 - Part 9 - Brand New Start! - Video - February 6th, 2015 [February 6th, 2015]
- Sol 0 - Mars Colonization - Season 2 - Part 12 - Brand New Start! - Rockets! - Video - February 9th, 2015 [February 9th, 2015]
- Sol 0 - Mars Colonization - Season 2 - Part 11 - Brand New Start! - Oxygen Problems! - Video - February 10th, 2015 [February 10th, 2015]
- Sol 0 - Mars Colonization - Season 2 - Part 2 - Brand New Start! - Video - February 12th, 2015 [February 12th, 2015]
- Sol 0 - Mars Colonization - Season 2 - Part 14 - Brand New Start! - Independence! - Video - February 14th, 2015 [February 14th, 2015]
- Sol 0 - Mars Colonization - Season 2 - Part 13 - Brand New Start! - Colonists! - Video - February 14th, 2015 [February 14th, 2015]
- Let's Play Sol 0-Mars Colonization #007 [Deutsch] - Wo landet das Wasser? - Video - February 14th, 2015 [February 14th, 2015]
- Would you want to live on Mars? - February 16th, 2015 [February 16th, 2015]
- Let's Play Sol 0-Mars Colonization #008 [Deutsch] - Zuwachs - Video - February 16th, 2015 [February 16th, 2015]
- 100 people still in the running for a one-way trip to Mars - February 17th, 2015 [February 17th, 2015]
- Private Mars One Colony Project Cuts Applicant Pool to 100 ... - February 17th, 2015 [February 17th, 2015]
- Sol 0 - Mars Colonization - Season 2 - Part 15 - Brand New Start! - We Explore our Independence! - Video - February 18th, 2015 [February 18th, 2015]
- Sol 0 - Mars Colonization - Season 2 - Part 16 - Brand New Start! - Population Growth! - Video - February 19th, 2015 [February 19th, 2015]
- Sol 0 - Mars Colonization - Season 2 Finale - Part 17 - Last Episode Forever - Video - February 21st, 2015 [February 21st, 2015]
- Let's Play Sol 0-Mars Colonization #009 [Deutsch] - Die Katastrophe - Video - February 22nd, 2015 [February 22nd, 2015]
- Moss Beach man among 100 candidates selected for Mars colonization training - March 4th, 2015 [March 4th, 2015]
- Let's Play Sol 0-Mars Colonization #011 [Deutsch] - weiter geht's - Video - March 5th, 2015 [March 5th, 2015]
- Let's Play Sol 0-Mars Colonization #010 [Deutsch] - Wasser,Wasser, Wasser - Video - March 5th, 2015 [March 5th, 2015]
- Let's Play Sol 0-Mars Colonization #012 [Deutsch] - Energie - Video - March 6th, 2015 [March 6th, 2015]
- Let's Play Sol 0-Mars Colonization #013 [Deutsch] - Das schwarze Loch - Video - March 8th, 2015 [March 8th, 2015]
- Mars Colonization(Sol 0) #1 - Video - March 8th, 2015 [March 8th, 2015]
- Private Mars One colony project cuts applicant pool to 100 volunteers - March 9th, 2015 [March 9th, 2015]
- Let's Play Sol 0-Mars Colonization #014 [Deutsch] - Mehr Bewohner - Video - March 14th, 2015 [March 14th, 2015]
- Mars Command to Mother Earth - Video - March 18th, 2015 [March 18th, 2015]
- Cities Skylines mods - Mars colonization - Video - March 20th, 2015 [March 20th, 2015]
- Sol 0. 03 - Video - March 22nd, 2015 [March 22nd, 2015]