Science Daily | Astronomy: Dark matter mapped -- ScienceDaily Science Daily One of the highest-resolution maps of dark matter ever created has now been revealed, offering a detailed case for the existence of cold dark matter -- sluggish ... |
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There may be a large number of undetected giant planet-like bodies in the neighborhood of our Sun, according to a Carnegie-led team of astronomers from Canada, the United States and Chile.
An artists conception of a free-floating planet-like object. Image credit: NASA / JPL.
Similarly-aged stars moving through space together in a group are of great interest to astronomers, because they are considered a prime target to hunt for brown dwarfs and free-floating planetary-mass objects.
Recent studies of the TW Hydrae (TWA) group have revealed some of the first known isolated giant planet-sized objects in the solar neighborhood, roughly 100 light-years away. This group contains a few dozen 10-million-year-old stars, all moving together through space.
Two recent discoveries in particular demonstrate the interest of TWA as a laboratory for understanding this isolated planetary-mass population, said Carnegies astronomer Jonathan Gagn and co-authors.
2MASS J11193254-1137466 and 2MASS J11472421-2040204 are both candidate members of TWA with spectral types L7 that display signs of youth, and with estimated masses as low as 5-7 Jupiter masses. Their close distances to the Sun place them at the nearer side of the TWA spatial distribution.
In order to determine whether or not there are more stand-alone planetary mass-sized objects like these in TWA, the astronomers undertook the calculation of an astronomical measurement called the initial mass function.
This function can be used to determine the distribution of mass in the group and to predict the number of undiscovered objects that might exist inside of it.
The initial mass function of TWA had never been published before, Dr. Gagn noted.
In the process of this analysis, the researchers were able to determine that there are probably many more objects 5-7 times the mass of Jupiter in the association that havent been discovered yet.
A tentative overpopulation of isolated planetary-mass members similar to 2MASS J114724212040204 and 2MASS J111932541137466 is identified, they said.
This indicates that there might be as many as 10+13-5 similar members of TWA with hot-start model-dependent masses estimated at 5-7 Jupiter masses, most of which would be too faint to be detected in the Two Micron All Sky Survey (2MASS).
TWA extends out to a distance of 250 light-years, but our instruments arent sensitive enough yet to detect giant planets-like members at this distance, hence many of them might remain to be discovered, Dr. Gagn explained.
The research is published in the Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series (arXiv.org preprint).
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Jonathan Gagn et al. 2017. BANYAN. IX. The Initial Mass Function and Planetary-mass Object Space Density of the TW HYA Association. ApJS 228, 18; doi: 10.3847/1538-4365/228/2/18
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Astronomers Hunt for Free-Floating Planetary-Mass Objects in Solar ... - Sci-News.com
Two sulfurous eruptions are visible on Jupiters volcanic moon Io in this color composite image from the robotic Galileo spacecraft that orbited Jupiter from 1995 to 2003. At the image top, over Ios limb, a bluish plume rises about 140 kilometers above the surface of a volcanic caldera known as Pillan Patera. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech
Hunting for habitable exoplanets now may be easier: Cornell University astronomers report that hydrogen pouring from volcanic sources on planets throughout the universe could improve the chances of locating life in the cosmos.
Planets located great distances from stars freeze over. On frozen planets, any potential life would be buried under layers of ice, which would make it really hard to spot with telescopes, said lead author Ramses Ramirez, research associate at Cornells Carl Sagan Institute. But if the surface is warm enough thanks to volcanic hydrogen and atmospheric warming you could have life on the surface, generating a slew of detectable signatures.
Combining the greenhouse warming effect from hydrogen, water and carbon dioxide on planets sprinkled throughout the cosmos, distant stars could expand their habitable zones by 30 to 60 percent, according to this new research. Where we thought you would only find icy wastelands, planets can be nice and warm as long as volcanoes are in view, said Lisa Kaltenegger, Cornell professor of astronomy and director of the Carl Sagan Institute.
Their research, A Volcanic Hydrogen Habitable Zone, is published today in The Astrophysical Journal Letters.
The idea that hydrogen can warm a planet is not new, but an Earth-like planet cannot hold onto its hydrogen for more than a few million years. Volcanoes change the concept. You get a nice big warming effect from volcanic hydrogen, which is sustainable as long as the volcanoes are intense enough, said Ramirez, who suggested the possibility that these planets may sustain detectable life on their surface.
A very light gas, hydrogen also puffs up planetary atmospheres, which will likely help scientists detect signs of life. Adding hydrogen to the air of an exoplanet is a good thing if youre an astronomer trying to observe potential life from a telescope or a space mission. It increases your signal, making it easier to spot the makeup of the atmosphere as compared to planets without hydrogen, said Ramirez.
In our solar system, the habitable zone extends to 1.67 times the Earth-Sun distance, just beyond the orbit of Mars. With volcanically sourced hydrogen on planets, this could extend the solar systems habitable zone reach to 2.4 times the Earth-Sun distance about where the asteroid belt is located between Mars and Jupiter. This research places a lot of planets that scientists previously thought to be too cold to support detectable life back into play.
We just increased the width of the habitable zone by about half, adding a lot more planets to our search here target list, said Ramirez.
Atmospheric biosignatures, such as methane in combination with ozone indicating life will likely be detected by the forthcoming, next-generation James Webb Space Telescope, launching in 2018, or the approaching European Extremely Large Telescope, first light in 2024.
Last week, NASA reported finding seven Earth-like planets around the star Trappist-1. Finding multiple planets in the habitable zone of their host star is a great discovery because it means that there can be even more potentially habitable planets per star than we thought, said Kaltenegger. Finding more rocky planets in the habitable zone per star increases our odds of finding life.
With this latest research, Ramirez and Kaltenegger have possibly added to that number by showing that habitats can be found, even those once thought too cold, as long as volcanoes spew enough hydrogen. Such a volcanic hydrogen habitable zone might just make the Trappist-1 system contain four habitable zone planets, instead of three. Although uncertainties with the orbit of the outermost Trappist-1 planet h means that well have to wait and see on that one, said Kaltenegger.
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Volcanic hydrogen spurs chances of finding exoplanet life - Astronomy Now Online
As the Faculty of Arts and Sciences works to address a concerning lack of diversity in the body, some have turned to astronomy professor John A. Johnsons efforts as an example of creating opportunities for historically underrepresented minorities.
Johnson points to his work at the Banneker Institutea program under the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics designed to support students of color studying astronomyas an important step to help welcome students into the field.
But for Johnson, who founded the Banneker Institute, these effort begin with more humble gestures. During nearly every lecture, Johnson says, he tells his students that "no one is born an astrophysicist."
For students of colortraditionally underrepresented in the physical sciencesJohnson says it's an important reminder.
"There are a number of obstacles that a student of color will encounter when they are in a historically white institution like Harvard," Johnson said. "One of the biggest problems is that everyone that they interact with is in a society that constantly sends a message that the intelligence and that the industriousness of black people is less than that of white people."
Working in a field that tends to focus on far-away phenomena, Johnson strives to incorporate issues that hit a little closer to home for many of his students. His classes can vacillate between solar systems and social justice, ultimately acting to promote what Johnson terms a program of anti-racism.
"We are pushing the aspects of society that actively and passively and historically exclude people of color from the enterprise of science," he said.
According to Johnson, the Banneker Institutenamed after African American astronomer Benjamin Bannekeris specifically geared towards students of color who are interested in pursuing graduate degrees in astronomy.
One such student, Juliana Garcia-Mejia 17, said her time at the Banneker Institute last summer gave her a new perspective on navigating academia as an astronomer of color. The institute offers a ten-week summer program for undergraduates from around the country.
According to Garcia-Meija, the institute offered her guidance in both astronomy and navigating social issues like racial discrimination.
Its not as though social justice is a component of Banneker, she said. Social justice is Banneker.
In addition to instruction and research, students at the institutes summer program participate in social justice Fridays, which include a public speaking lesson and discussion of readings, Garcia-Mejia said. Johnson also hosts Sunday dinners for the participants to socialize.
The program is designed to provide students with a standard summer research experience...but it also has a key component where we teach them about race and racism and how that affects the field of astronomy and how that is inevitably going to affect their experience in it, Johnson said.
Involvement with the Banneker Institute extends beyond the summer. Garcia-Mejia said she and the rest of her cohort presented research at a conference in early January, and that the Institute assigned her a graduate student mentor that helped her through the graduate school application process. In addition, she has remained in touch with the students that attended the Institute, many of whom do not attend Harvard.
We support each other to the extent that most of us rely more on that academic network that [the network] at our own institutions, she said.
Johnsons work with mentoring minority students in the sciences has not gone unnoticed. In a presentation about hiring female and minority faculty members at last months faculty meeting, Dean for Faculty Affairs and Planning Nina Zipser highlighted Johnsons work.
In an interview following the meeting, Faculty of Arts and Sciences Dean Michael D. Smith again mentioned Johnson.
In some places the pipeline of candidates coming out of graduate school programs are very strong and if our pools are not reflective of the same demographics, thats an issues for us, and theres a set of actions items that we can take to try and address that, he said. Other places, theres just not enough underrepresented minorities going into this field for graduate school, and then what can we do as an institution to encourage our undergraduates to think about that as an opportunity.
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Harvard Astronomer, Institute Offer Support for Students of Color in Sciences - Harvard Crimson
This weekend, people can see a bright star suddenly disappear from the sky before their very eyes, and East Central Community Colleges Engineering Clubs Astronomy Group will hold a star viewing for those interested.
On Saturday evening, March 4, viewers can look to the southwest high in the sky and see the first quarter Moon, and just to the east of it, the bright red star Aldebaran in the constellation of Taurus. People in the counties served by East Central Community College will see the star suddenly disappear between 9:52 and 9:54 p.m. as the Moon orbits in front of it.
Weather permitting, ECCCs Engineering Clubs Astronomy Group will host a viewing of stars with telescopes on the Decatur campus. The viewing will be held on the south end of the ECCC campus in front of Cross Hall from 9 to 10 p.m. People can watch the Moon get closer to Aldebaran through ECCCs telescope, and to see Aldebaran when it disappears, visitors can bring their own binoculars or telescope, or just watch directly.
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ECCC astronomy group hosts star viewing Saturday - Meridian Star
Neutrinos detected by Earth-based observatories could one day help to reveal the sequence of events that occur in supernovae.
When a white-dwarf star becomes too massive to support itself, the internal pressure is thought to trigger a runaway thermonuclear reaction followed by an explosion known as a Type Ia supernova but the events involved in the explosion are unknown. Warren Wright at North Carolina State University in Raleigh and his colleagues simulated a supernova and calculated the number of neutrinos it would generate, and the timing of their release, if the star's gravity initially limited the explosion, and the nuclear reaction spread across the star's entire surface before the star exploded.
This would create two distinct neutrino bursts that would be much fainter than the single burst that would be made by a faster explosion, which the team calculated in a previous study published last year. Over time, neutrino observatories searching for supernovae in our Galaxy should be able to use these predictions to tell whether either scenario is accurate, the authors say.
Phys. Rev. D 95, 043006 (2017)
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In an era of maturing artificial intelligence technology, what does the future of the corporation look like? Will the rise of robots help us do our jobs better, or harm them ? This dynamic has become a mainstay of the dialogue around AI, with voices from technology visionaries such as Bill Gates and Stephen Hawking weighing in.
But at Fortunes Most Powerful Women International Summit in Hong Kong on Tuesday, leaders at two of the worlds most powerful tech giants pushed back on those concerns. AI is intended to helpnot hinderthe human workforce, they said.
AI is actually not new for us, said Vanitha Narayanan, chairman of IBM India, whose Watson supercomputer has risen to global acclaim. But technology always comes way ahead of policy.
Just as her boss, IBM CEO Ginni Rometty, has insisted "it will not be man or machine," Narayanan said that many companies, especially service-oriented firms, benefit from the technology.
Consider a bank in Brazil that has 50 different products, she said. The average call center rep cannot handle 50 products. So theyre using Watson in their call centernot to replace the call center rep, but actually help the call center rep understand their products and their offerings and be able to serve that customer much better than he or she may have been able to.
Leonie Valentine, managing director of sales and operations at Google Hong Kong, likened use of artificial intelligence to a murmuration, when a starling flock take flight without any kind of preprogrammed system.
The birds just know how to find how to find formation in a murmuration. And it just kind of works, Valentine said. Its a fantastic analogy for what the future of organization will look like.
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The Google executive also defended artificial intelligence as a means of supplementing human workers.
Take the example of call center operators, When you go and survey your customers about where they would like your staff to spend your time," she said, "its not on problem-solving, troubleshooting, credit issues, or billing, right? Its Help me, advise me, send me on the trip that I wanted to go to.
Valentine said that since a lot of the technology has been put in place, well actually finally get to the place thats been Nirvana for the last 20 or 30 years in corporations, which is moving people to high-value tasks, which is actually taking the intelligence of the organization and forming that human intelligence, and where we need value-based judgments and real-time decision-making and a human touch, putting that back into the hands of the customer.
Said Valentine: Thats the sort of stuff Im looking forward to."
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Google and IBM: We Want Artificial Intelligence to Help You, Not Replace You - Fortune
Gone are the days of the hobbyist hackermodern malware is a trillion-euro business.
Dr Eva Maia at VisionTechLab, a young cybersecurity firm in Matosinhos, Portugal, said that attacks on computer networks are not only multiplying, they are also growing sneakier.
Malwares typically go unnoticed for months by remaining dormant on infected computers, said Dr Maia. This was recently the case in the Panama Papers attack, where no one knew that the network had been compromised until long after the damage was done.
In the EU-funded SecTrap project, VisionTechLab has been studying the market for a new line of defence that could rob malicious software of its current hiding places.
Conventional antiviruses and firewalls are trained like nightclub bouncers to block known suspects from entering the system. But new threats can be added to the wanted list only after causing trouble. If computers could instead be trained as detectives, snooping around their own circuits and identifying suspicious behaviour, hackers would have a harder time camouflaging their attacks.
The challenge is that machines have traditionally been built to follow orders, not recognise patterns or draw conclusions. Dr Maia is working on advances in artificial intelligence (AI) to change that.
Bootcamp
We are seeing a boom in AI techniques, said Dr Maia. Research that was previously theoretical is now moving from academic laboratories to industry at an unprecedented pace.
Research that was previously theoretical is now moving from academic laboratories to industry at an unprecedented pace.
Dr Eva Maia, VisionTechLab, Portugal
Over the past few years, computers have started driving passenger cars,following voice orders and outmatching humans at identifying faces on photographs. These breakthroughs are the fruit of a new trend in AI based on mimicking living neural networks.
In the same way as our brains sort new information based on past experiences, enough practice data can teach computers to learn, categorise and generalise for themselves.
How many examples are needed to identify a trend can run into astronomical numbers. Fortunately, vast hoards of behavioural data are strewn everyday across the internet by heedless bloggers, commentators and social media users.
Computers learnt their first cognitive functions by devouring terabytesof this online text, sound and images. With the help of recent computing power and the kind of algorithms developed by Dr Maia, they have become so good at identifying content that they now label some of it for us.
The challenge in cybersecurity is to use this ability to distinguish between innocent and malicious behaviour on a computer. For this, Alberto Pelliccione, chief executive of ReaQta, a cybersecurity venture in Valletta, Malta, has found an analogous way of educating by experience.
ReaQta breeds millions of malware programs in a virtual testing environment known as a sandbox, so that algorithms can inspect their antics at leisure and in safety. It is not always necessary to know what they are trying to steal. Just to record the applications that they open and their patterns of operation can be enough.
So that the algorithms can learn about business as usual, they then monitor the behaviour of legal software, healthy computers, and ultimately the servers of each new client. Their lesson never ends. The algorithms continue to learn from their users even after being put into operation.
In doing so, ReaQtas algorithms can assess whether programs or computers are behaving unusually. If they are, they inform human operators, who can either shut them down or study the tactics of the malware infecting them. The objective of the artificial intelligence is not to teach computers what we define as good or bad data, but to spot anomalies, said Pelliccione.
Nowhere to hide
This is welcome news for IT administrators. Cyber criminals typically attack the computer networks of large organisations by compromising the machines of less security-savvy users on their periphery and working their way through to the centre. A few weak links in a sprawling network are difficult to spot and can progressively put an entire company at risk.
To make matters worse, hackers install dormant access points on each machine that they compromise. If security analysts manage to block one, hackers return through another. Dormant access points are notoriously difficult to spot because they do nothing until hackers activate them.
As part of the European ProBOS project, ReaQta has developed software that can be nested at the very core of machines, between their operating system and hardware. Its role is to monitor daily operations in every corner of the system, allowing AI algorithms to sift through ubiquitous data and spot any malicious installation.
ReaQta is licensing the security platform across European and Southeast Asian markets this month. Its first clients are companies that operate over 500 computers simultaneously.
Next year, VisionTechLab plans to release its first AI security services for banks and governments. In the longer term, Dr Maia sees applications for individuals.
For all the benefits of mobile devices, social networking and cloud computing, these technologies are placing more private data at risk. While AI may not yet be capable of guaranteeing its safety, it can now shine a powerful search light on any attempts to steal it.
Cybersecurity is at the heart of the EU's strategy for the Digital Single Market.
The EU's cybersecurity strategy was created to embed cybersecurity into new policies in areas such as automated driving, make the EU a strong player in the cybersecurity market, and ensure that all Member States have similar capabilities to fight cyber crime.
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Artificial intelligence being turned against spyware - Horizon magazine
Forbes | The Future Of Work: The Intersection Of Artificial Intelligence And Human Resources Forbes Artificial intelligence is transforming our lives at home and at work. At home, you may be one of the 1.8 million people who use Amazon's Alexa to control the lights, unlock your car, and receive the latest stock quotes for the companies in your ... |
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The Future Of Work: The Intersection Of Artificial Intelligence And Human Resources - Forbes
As vain and manufactured as our online personas can be, Facebook is still a popular avenue for venting and rambling about our day-to-day struggles. Facebook recognizes this, and is now working on new ways to help troubled users with the use of artificial intelligence and pattern recognition, in addition to expanding its suicide prevention tools.
The new tools are similar to what Facebook launched back in 2015, which allows friends to flag a troubling image or status post. Now, this feature is available on Facebook Live with the goal of connecting a user with a mental health expert in real-time. If Facebook believes a reported Live streamer may need help, that user will receive notifications for suicide prevention resources while theyre still on the air. The person who reported the video will also get resources to personally reach out and help their friend, if they wish to identify his or herself.
Facebook is partnering with organizations like the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline, the National Eating Disorder Association, and the Crisis Text Line so when users posts are flagged and they opt to speak to someone, they can connect immediately via Messenger.
Using data from reported posts, Facebook says it will be using its AI technology to spot patterns between flagged items, identifying posts that suggest that user may be suicidal. Our Community Operations team will review these posts and, if appropriate, provide resources to the person who posted the content, even if someone on Facebook has not reported it yet, Facebook wrote in a blog post.
In his recent mission statement update, CEO Mark Zuckerberg acknowledged the need to detect signs of suicidal users to offer help before its too late. There have been terribly tragic events -- like suicides, some live streamed -- that perhaps could have been prevented if someone had realized what was happening and reported them sooner, he wrote. To prevent harm, we can build social infrastructure to help our community identify problems before they happen.
The new tools are currently being tested in the United States. No timeline was given for future rollouts.
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Facebook leverages artificial intelligence for suicide prevention - The Verge
NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) was one of the hottest tech stocks of 2016, jumping 230% over the past 12 months. The company makes the vast majority of its revenue from gaming -- about 62% in the fiscal fourth quarter 2017 -- but NVIDIA is much more than just a gaming processor company.
The artificial intelligence (AI) market is quickly expanding, and NVIDIA is positioning itself to make big gains in the space. According to an investor note published by Goldman Sachs' Toshiya Haria couple of months ago, NVIDIA's total addressable market in AI and deep learning could be as big as $5 billion to $10 billion -- out of a total market of $40 billion.
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Data source: Goldman Sachs. Chart by author.
Hari mentioned that NVIDIA already has a lead in the AI space and that the company's competition "continues to face high barriers to entry." He went on to add that NVIDIA already holds nearly 90% of the market for chips that are used for training tasks in machine learning (referring to the company's GPUs).
NVIDIA's position in the burgeoning AI market market comes from several of the company's products. Its Drive PX 2 supercomputer uses deep learning to process image information for self-driving vehicles and help them decide how they should react in certain situations.
More than 80 automakers and Tier 1 automotive suppliers already use a version of Drive PX, including Tesla. The electric-auto maker is rapidly moving toward a self-driving car future and has already added key driverless car technologies -- including NVIDIA's computers -- to make it a reality.
But the company isn't satisfied just with using its GPU-based AI computers for autonomous driving. NVIDIA's DGX-1 supercomputer server uses machine learning systems to process information faster than previous deep learning machines of its kind, and is currently being used by SAP for enterprise solutions for 320,000 customers.
NVIDIA says that its latest Pascal chip architecture is"purpose-built for AI," and other major tech companies have already taken notice. BothIBM and Microsoft are using NVIDIA's GPUs for some of their AI services as well."
While NVIDIA's AI opportunity is huge, investors should know one thing: AI makes up only a small percentage of revenue right now.
In the fiscal fourth quarter 2017, NVIDIA brought in just $296 million from its data center division -- 13% of total revenue -- and even its automotive business (which includes the Drive PX 2 AI supercomputer) brings in less than 6% of total revenue.
That means the company will need to continue releasing new hardware and adding more customers to reach its full AI potential. But at this point, NVIDIA is already well on its way to fully tapping into the AI market, and it's doing so at the perfect time.
This year may be one of the best years to invest in AI, as tech companies and governments around the world are ramping up investments in artificial intelligence. NVIDIA's current position in AI, potential market share, and focus on new AI hardware should push the company to the top of the list for anyone looking to invest in AI over the long term.
Teresa Kersten is an employee of LinkedIn and is a member of The Motley Fools Board of Directors. LinkedIn is owned by Microsoft. Chris Neiger has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool owns shares of and recommends Nvidia and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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NVIDIA's Artificial Intelligence Opportunity in 1 Chart - Motley Fool
Baidu Ventures exists on the front-lines of the Chinese search giants push to brand itself as an artificial intelligence company. In an effort to bridge the AI ecosystems of China and the United States, Baidu Ventures is partnering with Comet Labs, a San Francisco-based fund specializing in machine intelligence.
Unlike other venture capital firms looking to diversifyinto AI, Comet Labs lives exclusively in the space providing capital, technical resources and mentorship to its startups. Wei Liu, now head of Baidus $700 millionventure arm, was part of the founding team at Comet Labs before he was poached into the world of corporate venture.
Baidu founded Baidu Ventures to build an ecosystem around AI technology and do investment to help AI startups with money,technologyand connections to industrial players, assertedLiu.
The mission overlaps considerably withthat of Comet Labs. Where Baidu Ventures has the capital to invest ingrowth stage companies, Comet has the infrastructure to aggressively finance early-stage machine intelligence companies.
We think the most useful things we can give to startups are things theycant buy with money like mentorship, expertise and the ability to fast track into production, says Saman Farid, Managing Partnerat Comet Labs. These are things that, even with $100 million, you might not be able to get overnight.
Comet Labs has been organizing a series of Labs focused on specific industry verticals like transportation.The effort supports specialized startups with the help of corporate partners and targeted mentorship. Groupslike Bosch Ventures and TomTomprovide things liketraining data sets and technical expertise.
Unlike these partnerships that Comet Labs has been establishing for months, its relationship with Baidu Ventures will exist at a level that transcends the individual Labs. In some ways, Baidu Ventures is Comets partner in China connecting portfolio companies with other strategic partners and a large market.
Outside of venture,Baidu has been as vocal as its peers about the role artificial intelligence will play in its future. Microsoft, Google and Amazon have all taken similar stances, engaging in acquisitions and investments through their own respective venture arms in AI, though none have been as exclusively focused on the space.
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Baidu Ventures partners with Comet Labs as both double down on artificial intelligence - TechCrunch
Air flowing across an airplanes wings provides the necessary lift for flight, but the airflow also causes drag and friction, resulting the aircraft slowing down and causing to inefficient propulsion.
Theoretically, laminar air flow along an airplanes wings reduces drag and improves the airplanes efficiency.
Therefore, many aerodynamics researchers are looking at wing designs that stimulate laminar air flow. Accordingly, test flights were performed by Dassault Aviation on a Falcon 7X using a FLIR Systems thermal imaging camera. The camera can distinguish laminar flows from turbulent flows, which allows researchers to evaluate the laminarity of the air flow on an airplanes wing during the flight.
The highly sensitive FLIR SC7750L thermal imaging camera.
The FLIR SC7750L thermal imaging camera was mounted in the top of the tail of the Falcon 7X, looking down on the right horizontal stabilizer.
The camera employed by Dassault during the test flight was a FLIR SC7750L thermal imaging camera. This sophisticated thermal imaging camera can measure temperature gradients at high altitudes, despite the low outside temperature and pressure.
In the test at the company's flight test center in Istres, France, Dassault applied a black covering to the right horizontal stabilizer of a Falcon 7X. The FLIR SC7750L thermal imaging camera was mounted to look down on the surface from the top of the horizontal tail.
Thermal image of the air flow along the right horizontal stabilizer.
The test flight was a part of the Smart Fixed Wing Aircraft effort carried out under the European Clean Sky research program, and was a precursor to planned smart laminar wing flight tests in 2014 on a specially modified Airbus A340-300 by Airbus, Dassault, and other partners.
As one of Europes largest research initiatives ever, the purpose of the Clean Sky program is to develop technologies for cleaner and quieter next-generation aircrafts, which will enter service after 2020.
Dassault Aviation, one of the leading aerospace companies, has a presence in more than 70 countries spread over five continents. The company produces the complete line of Falcon business jets and the Rafale fighter jet.
It has assembly and production facilities in France and the United States, and service units in many continents. From the first Falcon 20 made in 1963, Dassault has delivered 2,000 Falcon jets to 67 countries across the world.
Philippe Rostand, Future Falcon Programs Project Manager, says his company is planning to apply drag-reducing laminar flow technology in its designs in the near future.
Theoretically the potential of laminar wings is huge. Among other aerodynamic innovations, laminar wing technology offers the largest potential for a dramatic decrease in drag.
Initial studies indicate a potential 5-10% drag decrease and corresponding reduction in fuel burn and CO2 emissions with a laminar wing design on a large aircraft. The flow of air around an airplanes wing causes friction. This air flow can be laminar, which basically means that no turbulence occurs and the amount of friction is low, or it can be turbulent, which is characterized with larger amounts of friction.
A larger amount of friction causes significantly higher energy consumption for aircraft propulsion, so aircraft designers want to increase the amount of laminar air flow and decrease the amount of turbulent air flow.
Philippe Rostand, Project Manager, Future Falcon Programs
During the period of 1986-1989, Dassault Aviation conducted several successful test flights with an experimental laminar airfoil on a modified Falcon 50. However, at present, laminar wings are only used on small business jets and sail planes. In order to confirm the increase in efficiency and the safe usage of laminar wings on larger aircrafts, demonstrations and analysis are required on a larger scale.
The process of a laminar boundary layer becoming turbulent is known as boundary layer transition. This is an extraordinarily complicated process which at present is not fully understood.
One of the reasons for this is the lack in equipment that can accurately map the laminar and turbulent areas of a wing. That is where the thermal imaging camera from FLIR systems comes into the equation. The use of thermal imaging technology to detect laminar air flow is based on the detection of minute differences in temperature.
The relation between air friction and temperature is well established in scientific literature; an increase in friction will lead to an increase in temperature. The turbulent areas of the wing, where there is more friction, should therefore be warmer than the laminar areas. But this difference in temperature is extremely small, typically between 0.5 and 3 C. That is why we needed a reliable thermal imaging camera that can accurately detect such small differences in temperature.
Philippe Rostand, Project Manager, Future Falcon Programs
Schematic illustration of the distribution of laminar and turbulent flow patterns in the boundary air flow around an airplane wing.
Philippe found the answer in the FLIR SC7750L thermal imaging camera.
We hoped that after careful analysis of the thermal data the resulting thermal images would show a distinct temperature difference, allowing us to locate the boundary between the laminar and turbulent areas of the wing. The results are still under analysis by Dassault Aviation and ONERA, (the French national aerospace research center), but initial reports indicate that this goal has been achieved.
Philippe Rostand, Project Manager, Future Falcon Programs
At high altitudes, a laminarity of up to 40% was estimated on the upper surface of the horizontal tail, though the Falcon 7X does not have wings particularly designed for laminar air flow. The measurements using the FLIR SC7750L thermal imaging camera were performed to provide experimental validation of this prediction, says Philippe. The initial results seem to suggest that the thermal images show the expected laminarity percentage.
Schematic of the Falcon 7X with the FLIR SC7750L thermal imaging camera mounted in the top of the tail, looking down on the right horizontal stabilizer.
The key features of the FLIR SC7750L thermal imaging camera include:
This test with the FLIR SC7750L thermal imaging camera has proved that thermal imaging technology is an effective tool for laminar wing research. This measurement technique will therefore be used in future test flights to be flown by Dassault, Airbus and the other European partners on an even larger scale, such as the smart laminar wing that will be flight tested in 2014 on a modified Airbus A340-300 test aircraft. Implementing what we will learn from these tests we will hopefully be able to produce better and more energy efficient airplanes in the near future.
Philippe Rostand, Project Manager, Future Falcon Programs
This information has been sourced, reviewed and adapted from materials provided by FLIR Systems.
For more information on this source, please visit FLIR Systems.
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Aerospace Engineering Using Thermal Imaging to Assess Laminar Designs - AZoM
By Tova Cohen and Steven Scheer | BEN GURION AIRPORT, Israel
BEN GURION AIRPORT, Israel State-owned Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) believes the need for a public share offer is becoming urgent as the country's largest defense contractor wants to make acquisitions abroad to enable it to better compete in foreign markets.
The 64-year-old company, which helped pioneer the development of military drones and also produces satellites, missiles and radar systems, is already planning to acquire companies and set up subsidiaries in countries like India and the United States, where protectionist policies demand that defense spending increasingly benefits local industry.
Chief Financial Officer Eyal Younian said that to help finance acquisitions the government should move ahead soon with plans to sell a 20 percent stake in IAI on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange.
He said IAI currently needs to issue bonds or borrow money from banks and pay interest of 3-4 percent. An IPO would raise new capital, reducing the need to borrow.
"We cannot support the line of credit that we need for our businesses. The regulations in the banks in Israel and around the world limit us and we cannot support our backlog (of orders)," Younian told Reuters.
In addition, many private contractors in Israel and overseas receive government subsidies but being state-owned IAI is ineligible and the rules should be changed, Younian said, pointing out that local rival Elbit Systems (ESLT.TA) pays corporate tax at a rate of 6 percent while IAI pays 24 percent.
A senior government source with knowledge of the matter estimated IAI's equity value at $3-$4 billion but said an IPO could not take place until a new chairman is appointed. The timing of that remains unclear, but the source said the earliest there could be an IPO was in 2018.
IAI has annual sales of about $3.7 billion and its backlog of orders exceeds $9 billion.
While the share offer will be in Tel Aviv, the next step could be a dual listing for the shares in the United States, Younian said.
IAI must already submit financial reports to the bourse, where its bonds trade , as well as report to the government's Companies Authority.
Accounting for up to half of Israel's defense exports, IAI had mostly grown internally over the last decade, but that is set to change.
"Now we will have to face the fact that countries are protecting their industries, like in India, like in Brazil, like in the USA," Younian said, adding that acquisitions would allow it to strengthen its foothold.
He noted that in many countries only local companies can bid as a prime contractor. As a result IAI, which exports 80 percent of its production, is limited to being a subcontractor.
FOREIGN DEALS
IAI already has a U.S. subsidiary but it does not contribute significantly to the company's production.
"I think our subsidiaries in the States and around the world should contribute much more in the coming decade. This is the strategic directive from the board of directors that we as management need to execute," he said.
Younian said IAI, which employs 15,000 people, will carry out two "important and material" deals in the next few years related to its target markets of the United States and India, but he declined to elaborate.
With Asia a focus for IAI, the company in February formed a joint venture in India with Kalyani Strategic Systems to build air defense systems and lightweight munitions.
Indian media last week reported that India's government had given the go-ahead for a $2.5 billion deal in which IAI and India would jointly develop a medium-range surface-to-air missile system.
Eli Alfassi, IAI's executive vice president for marketing, said IAI was awaiting official confirmation from India but declined to say how much the deal was worth.
IAI is also waiting for Israel's government to decide on whether to progress with a long-term satellite program after its Amos-6 communications satellite was destroyed when a SpaceX launcher exploded in Florida in September.
"We are hoping to build Amos-8," said Ofer Doron, head of IAI's space division. "It's under discussion right now."
Talks also involve Spacecom (SCC.TA), the operator of the Amos satellites. Amos-8 would cost hundreds of millions of dollars and be ready for launch in about four years.
(Editing by Greg Mahlich)
OneWeb Ltd, a U.S. satellite startup backed by Japan's SoftBank Group Corp, and debt-laden satellite operator Intelsat SA agreed to merge in a share-for-share deal on Tuesday.
CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. NASA will pay Boeing Co up to $373.5 million for rides to fly up to five astronauts to the International Space Station aboard Russian Soyuz capsules, the U.S. space agency said on Tuesday.
MOSUL, Iraq "My dear family, please forgive me," reads the handwritten letter discarded in the dusty halls of an Islamic State training compound in eastern Mosul.
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Israel Aerospace puts IPO, foreign acquisitions in its sights | Reuters - Reuters
Upcoming AWS Coverage on Huntington Ingalls Industries Post-Earnings Results
LONDON, UK / ACCESSWIRE / March 2, 2017 / Active Wall St. announces its post-earnings coverage on BE Aerospace, Inc. (NASDAQ: BEAV). The Company released its financial results for the fourth quarter fiscal 2016 (Q4 FY16) and full year fiscal 2016 (FY16) on February 10, 2017. The Wellington, Florida-based Company's quarterly revenues registered a 10.8% y-o-y growth, outperforming market consensus estimates. Register with us now for your free membership at:
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One of BE Aerospace's competitors within the Aerospace/Defense Products & Services space, Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (NYSE: HII), reports on February 16, 2017, its Q4 and full year 2016 financial results. AWS will be initiating a research report on Huntington Ingalls Industries in the coming days.
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Earnings Reviewed
For Q4 FY16, B/E Aerospace reported revenue of $730.4 million compared to $659.2 million recorded at the end of Q4 FY15. Revenue numbers for Q4 FY16 topped the market consensus estimates of $701.3 million.
The aircraft cabin interior products manufacturer's net earnings stood at $60.4 million, or $0.60 per diluted share, in Q4 FY16 compared to $83.4 million, or $0.81 per diluted share, in Q4 FY15. The Company's adjusted net earnings for the reported quarter came in at $80.4 million, or $0.80 per diluted share, versus $78.6 million, or $0.76 per diluted share, in Q4 FY15. Wall Street had also expected the Company to report adjusted net earnings of $0.80 per diluted share.
In FY16, B/E Aerospace's revenue came in at $2.93 billion compared to $2.73 billion in the previous year's same period. The Company reported net earnings of $311.1 million, or $3.08 per diluted share, in FY16 versus $285.7 million, or $2.73 per diluted share, in FY15. Meanwhile, the Company's adjusted net earnings increased to $331.1 million, or $3.28 per diluted share, in FY16 from $316.4 million, or $3.03 per diluted share, in FY15.
Operational Metrics
During Q4 FY16, B/E Aerospace's selling, general, and administrative expenses were $90.7 million versus $80.7 million in the prior year's same quarter. The Company spent $73.5 million on research, development, and engineering in Q4 FY16 compared to $58.0 million in the last year's comparable quarter. The Company's operating earnings for Q4 FY16 came in at $108.6 million, or 14.9% of revenues, compared to $124.1 million, or 18.8% of revenues, in Q4 FY15. Additionally, the Company reported adjusted operating earnings of $130.5 million in Q4 FY16 which came in above $124.1 million recorded in the last year's comparable quarter.
Cash Flow & Balance Sheet
During year ended December 31, 2016, net cash provided by operating activities was $306.8 million compared to $310.8 million in the prior year's corresponding period. The Company recorded free cash flow of $277.0 million in full year FY16. At the close of books on December 31, 2016, B/E Aerospace had $202.0 million in cash and cash equivalents compared to $154.1 million at the close of books on December 31, 2015. The Company's long-term debt stood at $2.04 billion as on December 31, 2016, compared to $2.03 billion as on December 31, 2015.
Dividend
In a separate press release on February 24, 2017, B/E Aerospace's Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.21 per outstanding share of the Company's common stock. The dividend is payable on March 24, 2017, to shareholders of record at the close of business on March 06, 2017.
Merger Update
On October 23, 2016, Rockwell Collins (NYSE:COL) had entered into a definitive agreement to acquire B/E Aerospace for approximately $6.4 billion in cash and stock, plus the assumption of $1.9 billion in net debt.
In connection with the pending merger transaction, on February 03, 2017, both the companies have filed a registration statement with Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Form S-4 that included a joint proxy statement. The registration statement has been declared effective by the SEC. Furthermore, B/E Aerospace has arranged for a special meeting of stockholders, scheduled for March 09, 2017, at the Hilton Palm Beach Airport, West Palm Beach, Florida, at 10:00 a.m.
Read More
Stock Performance
On Wednesday, March 01, 2017, BE Aerospace's share price finished the trading session at $64.23, marginally advancing 0.99%. A total volume of 1.21 million shares exchanged hands. The stock has surged 28.30% and 45.55% in the last six months and past twelve months, respectively. Furthermore, since the start of the year, shares of the Company have gained 6.71%. The stock is trading at a PE ratio of 20.84 and has a dividend yield of 1.31%.
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A Critical Analysis into the Different Approaches Explaining the Collapse of the Soviet Union: Was the Nature of the Regimes Collapse Ontological, Conjunctural or Decisional?
Abstract
This investigation seeks to explore the different approaches behind the demise of the Soviet Union. It will draw from Richard Sakwas three approaches with regards to the collapse of the Soviet Union, namely of the ontological, decisional and conjunctural varieties. This dissertation will ultimately demonstrate the necessity of each of these if a complete understanding of the demise is to be acquired.
This dissertation will be split into three different areas of scrutiny with each analysing a different approach. The first chapter will question what elements of the collapse were ontological and will consist of delving into long-term socio-economic and political factors in order to grasp what structural flaws hindered the Soviet Union from its inception. Following this will be an analysis of the decisional approach, this time focusing on short-term factors and how the decisions of Gorbachev contributed to the fall. Finally, this investigation will examine the conjunctural approach, which will provide valuable insight as to how short-term political contingent factors played a leading role in the eventual ruin of the Soviet Union.
Introduction
On December 26th, 1991, the Soviet Union was officially dissolved into fifteen independent republics after six years of political-economic crises. This unanticipated collapse of a super-power that had once shaped the foreign policies of East and West took the international community off-guard. Since the collapse, scholars have attempted to provide insight into the reasons behind the demise of the Soviet state. In 1998 Richard Sakwa published Soviet Politics in Perspective, which categorised the three main approaches adopted by scholars in the study of the collapse of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). These were the ontological, decisional and conjunctural approaches and will be the foci of this investigation. Ultimately, my aim is to prove that none of these approaches can thoroughly explain the collapse when viewed individually.
Instead, I will advance that all three are vital in order to acquire a thorough understanding of the Soviet collapse. To prove this, I will be analysing how each approach covers different angles of the fall, but before being able to answer this question of validity, I must begin by arranging each scholar I scrutinize into Sakwas three approaches. In my research I have discovered that the vast majority of scholars have no notion of such schools of thought, which increases the possibility of bias in secondary sources and makes my investigation all the more challenging. Once a solid theoretical basis is set I will then move onto investigating the legitimacy of each approach when considering historical events.
Research Questions
To provide the basis for my hypothesis, my analysis will be subdivided into three research questions.
The first one will address what ontological traits existed in the collapse of the Soviet Union. Following this, the second question will mirror the first by attempting to make sense of decisional aspects of the fall. Finally, my attention will turn to answering in what way was the collapse conjunctural in nature. Although the characteristics of these questions may seem basic it is important not to fall prey to appearances and bear in mind the complexity of each approach. Moreover, the arrangement and formulation of the research questions was carried out in this manner to provide an unbiased evaluation of each approach, eventually displaying the necessity of each in the explanation of fall.
Methodology
The fall of the Soviet Union is a subject that has attracted vast amounts of literature from scholars all over the world. Although this presents a challenge when it comes to working through such a large topic it also helps the researcher elaborate solid explanations behind historical events. Consequently, I will be mainly employing qualitative data, supplemented by quantitative evidence; which will consist of both primary and secondary sources. The quantitative information will draw from various economists such as Lane, Shaffer and Dyker; these will mainly be used to ensure that qualitative explanations are properly backed by statistical data regarding socio-economic factors.
The majority of the qualitative data drawn will be from secondary sources written by contemporary scholars. A few primary sources such as official documents will also be analysed to provide further depth to analysis. Due to the vast amount of information concerning my topic, it is important to focus on literature aiding the question as one can easily deviate from the question regarding the three approaches. The other main challenge will also consist in avoiding to be drawn into deep analysis of the separate independence movements of the Soviet republics.
Theoretical Framework
Before being able to embark on a complete literature review, it is important to understand the theoretical framework that accompanies the analysis, namely Sakwas three approaches. Subsequently, I will then be able to show that all three of these approaches are necessary in explaining the downfall of the Soviet Union.
When looking at the different approaches elaborated by Sakwa, each advances a unique hypothesis as to why the Soviet Union collapsed. Although all three approaches are different in nature, some overlap or inter-connect at times. To begin with, the ontological approach argues that the Soviet Union dissolved because of certain inherent shortcomings of the system [] including [] structural flaws.[1] This approach enhances the premise that the collapse of the Soviet Union lies in long-term systemic factors that were present since the conception of the system. This view is countered by the conjunctural approach, which suggests
that the system did have an evolutionary potential that might have allowed it in time to adapt to changing economic and political circumstances. [] The collapse of the system [is] ascribed to contingent factors, including the strength of internal party opposition [and] the alleged opportunism of the Russian leadership under Boris Yeltsin.[2]
The final approach theorised by Sakwa is the decisional one, and advances the belief that
particular decisions at particular times precipitated the collapse, but that these political choices were made in the context of a system that could only be made viable through transformation of social, economic and political relations. This transformation could have been a long-term gradual process, but required a genuine understanding of the needs of the country.[3]
Although the decisional and conjunctural approaches are different in scope, they nevertheless both focus on the short-term factors of collapse, which at times may cause confusions. As both approaches analyse the same time frame, certain factors behind the collapse may be logically attributed to both. A relevant example may be seen when a contingent factor (factions within the Communist Party) affects the decisions of a leader (Gorbachev). This leads to ambiguities, as it is impossible to know whether certain outcomes should be explained in a conjunctural or decisional light. This type of ambiguity can also cast doubts on certain conjunctural phenomena with historical antecedents. In these cases it becomes unclear as to whether these phenomena are ontological (structural), as they existed since the systems conception or conjunctural as they present contingent obstacles to progress.
In most cases, when ambiguities arise, scholars may adopt a rhetoric that is inherently ontological, decisional or conjunctural and then base most of their judgements and analysis around it. Kalashnikov supplements this, stating that studies tend to opt for one factor as being most important in bringing about collapse [] [and] do not engage other standpoints.[4] This is a trait I have noticed in certain works that were written by scholars more inclined to analyse events through a certain approach, such as Kotkin with the ontological approach, Goldman with the decisional one, or Steele regarding the conjunctural approach. In my analysis, I will scrutinise the fall through the theoretical lens of each approach, and from this will prove the indispensability of each of these in the explanation of the downfall. The fact that certain approaches overlap is testament to the necessity of this theoretical categorisation.
Literature Review
The first approach to be investigated will be the ontological one: a school of thought espoused by scholars who focus on systemic long-term factors of collapse. Kotkin is one such author, providing valuable insight into the ontological dissolution of Soviet ideology and society, which will figure as the first element of analysis in that chapter. He advances the theory that the Soviet Union was condemned from an early age due to its ideological duty in providing a better alternative to capitalism. From its inception, the Soviet Union had claimed to be an experiment in socialism []. If socialism was not superior to capitalism, its existence could not be justified.[5] Kotkin elaborates that ideological credibility crumbled from the beginning as the USSR failed to fulfil expectations during Stalins post-war leadership. Kotkin goes on and couples ideological deterioration with emphasis on societal non-reforming tendency that flourished after the 1921 ban on factions, setting a precedent where reform was ironically seen as a form of anti-revolutionary dissidence.
Kenez and Sakwa also supplement the above argument with insight on the suppression of critical political thinking, notably in Soviet satellite states, showing that any possibility of reforming towards a more viable Communist rhetoric was stifled early on and continuously supressed throughout the 1950s and 60s. This characteristic of non-reform can be seen as an ontological centre-point, as after the brutal repression seen in Hungary (1956) and Czechoslovakia (1968), no feedback mechanism existed wherein leadership could comprehend the social, political and economic problems that were gradually amassing. The invasion of 1968 represented the destruction of the sources of renewal within the Soviet system itself.[6] Consequently, this led the Kremlin into a state of somewhat ignorance visvis the reality of life in the Soviet Union. Adding to the explanation of the Soviet Unions ontological demise, Sakwa links the tendency of non-reform to the overlapping of party and polity that occurred in the leadership structure of the USSR. The CPSU was in effect a parallel administration, shadowing the official departments of state: a party-state emerged undermining the functional adaptability of both.[7] Sakwa then develops that this led to the mis-modernisation of the command structure of the country, and coupled with non-reform, contributed to its demise. Furthermore, ontologically tending scholars also view the republican independence movements of the USSR as a factor destined to occur since the conception of the union.
The second section concerning the ontological approach analyses the economic factors of collapse. Here, Derbyshire, Kotkin and Remnick provide a quantitative and qualitative explanation of the failure of centralisation in the agricultural and industrial sectors. Derbyshire and Remnick also provide conclusive insight into ontological reasons for the failure of industrial and agricultural collectivization, which played a leading role in the overall demise of the Soviet Union.
Finally, in my third area of investigation, Remnick and Sakwa claim that the dissolution came about due to widespread discontent in individual republics regarding exploitation of their natural resources as well as Stalins detrimental policy of pitting different republics against each other.
Moscow had turned all of Central Asia into a vast cotton plantation [] [and in] the Baltic States, the official discovery of the secret protocols to the Nazi-Soviet pact was the key moment.[8]
Although I will explore how independence movements played a role in the dissolution, I will ensure the focus remains on the USSR as a whole, as it is easy to digress due to the sheer amount of information on independence movements. Upon this, although evidence proves that certain factors of collapse were long-term ontological ones, other scholars, namely Goldman and Galeotti go in another direction and accentuate that the key to understanding the downfall of the USSR lies in the analysis of short-term factors such as the decisional approach.
Dissimilar to the ontological approach, within the decisional realm, scholars more frequently ascribe the factors of the collapse to certain events or movements, which allows them to have minute precision in their explanations of the fall. Goldman is a full-fledged decisional scholar with the conviction that Gorbachev orchestrated the collapse through his lack of comprehensive approach,[9] a view espousing Sakwas definition of the decisional approach. In order to allow for a comprehensive analysis, this chapter will start off with an examination of Gorbachevs economic reforms in chronological order, allowing the reader to be guided through the decisions that affected the collapse. Goldman will be the main literary pillar of this section, supplemented by Sakwa and Galeotti. Having accomplished this, it will be possible to investigate how economic failure inter-linked with political decisions (Glasnost and Perestroika) outside of the Party created an aura of social turmoil. Here, Galeotti and Goldman will look into the events and more importantly, the decisions, that discredited Gorbachevs rule and created disillusion in Soviet society. My final section of the chapter will scrutinize the affects of Glasnost and Perestroika within the Communist Party, which will stand as a primordial step in light of the independence movements; seen as a by-product of Gorbachevs policies. Due to the inter-linked nature of the political, social and economic spheres, it will be possible to see how policy sectors affected each other in the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Overall, this chapter will end with an analysis of how Gorbachevs incoherence pushed certain republics onto the path of independence, which is perceived as a major factor behind the fall by Goldman.
In the chapter regarding the conjunctural approach, I will be looking into the key contingent factors that scholars believe are behind the fall of the Soviet Union. The first will be the conservatives of the Communist Party who obstructed the reform process since Brezhnevs rule, meaning that up until the collapse, reform efforts had run headlong into the opposition of entrenched bureaucratic interests who resisted any threat to their power.[10] Due to the broadness of this topic I will draw from two scholars, namely Kelley and Remnick, for supplementary insight. Moving on, I will also investigate the inception of the reformist left, a term encapsulating those within and outside the party striving to bring democratic reform to the USSR. Here the main conjunctural scholar used will be Steele, who explains that Gorbachevs hopes for this reformist left to support him against the Communist conservatives evaporated once Yeltsin took the lead and crossed the boundaries of socialist pluralism set by Gorbachev. A concept coined by the leader himself, which implied that there should be a wide exchange of views and organizations, provided they all accepted socialism.[11] This brought about enormous pressure and sapped social support from Gorbachev at a time when he needed political backing. Once the political scene is evaluated through conjunctural evidence, I will divide my chapter chronologically, first exploring the 1989 radicalisation of the political movements with the significant arrival of Yeltsin as the major obstacle to Gorbachevs reforms to the left. In this section I will be mainly citing Remnick due to his detailed accounts of events. Ultimately I will be attempting to vary my analysis with approach-specific scholars and more neutral ones who provide thorough accounts, such as Remnicks and Sakwas. The analysis will continue with insight in the 1990-1991 period of political turmoil and the effects it had on Gorbachevs reforms; I will be citing Galeotti, Remnick and Tedstrom as these provide varying viewpoints regarding political changes of the time. My chapter will then finally end with a scrutiny of Yeltsins Democratic Russia and the August 1991 Coup and how both of these independent action groups operated as mutual contingent factors in the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
Chapter One: Was the Collapse of the USSR Ontological in Nature?
When analysing the collapse of the USSR, it is undeniable that vital ontological problems took form during the early days of its foundation. Here I will analyse these flaws and demonstrate how the collapse occurred due to ontological reasons, hence proving the necessity of this approach. In order to provide a concrete answer I will begin by scrutinizing how the erosion of the Communist ideology acted as a systemic flaw where the Soviet Unions legitimacy was put into question. I will then analyse how a non-reformist tendency was created in society and also acted as an ontological flaw that would play a part in the fall. From there I will explore how ontological defects plagued the economic sector in the industrial and agricultural areas, leading the country to the brink of economic collapse. Finally I will analyse the independence movements, as certain scholars, especially Remnick and Kotkin, argue that these movements pushed towards ontological dissolution. It is imperative to recall that this chapter will analyse symptoms of the collapse that are of an ontological nature, namely long-term issues that manifested themselves in a negative manner on the longevity of the Soviet Union. As a result it is vital to bear in mind that the ontological factors to be analysed are usually seen as having all progressively converged together over the decades, provoking the cataclysmic collapse.
The Untimely Death of an Ideology
Since its early days, the Soviet Union was a political-economic experiment built to prove that the Communist-Socialist ideology could rival and even overtake Capitalism. It promoted itself as a superior model, and thus was condemned to surpassing capitalism if it did not want to lose its legitimacy. However, during Stalins tenure, the ideological legitimacy of the Soviet Union crumbled due to two reasons: the first one being the aforementioned premiers rule and the other being Capitalisms success, which both ultimately played a part in its demise.
The early leaders of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU) such as Lenin, Trotsky, Kamenev, Bukharin, Zinoviev and Stalin all had different views regarding how to attain socio-economic prosperity, but Stalin would silence these after the 1921 to 1924 power struggle. Following this period, which saw the death of Lenin, Stalin emerged as the supreme leader of the Soviet Union. With the exile of Trotsky, and isolation of Zinoviev, Kamenev and Bukharin from the party, no effective opposition was left to obstruct the arrival of Stalins fledging dictatorship. Subsequently, Stalin was able to go about effectively appropriating the Communist ideology for himself; with his personality cult he became the sole curator of what was Communist or reactionary (anti-Communist). Subsequently, to protect his hold on power, he turned the Soviet Union away from Marxist Communist internationalism by introducing his doctrine of Socialism in One Country, after Lenins death in 1924.
Insisting that Soviet Russia could [] begin the building of socialism [] by its own efforts. [] [Thus treading on] Marxs view that socialism was an international socialist movement or nothing.[12]
As a result, the USSR under Stalin alienated the possibilities of ideological renewal with other Communist states and even went as far as to claim, that the interests of the Soviet Union were the interests of socialism.[13] Sakwa sees these actions as ones that locked the Soviet Union into a Stalinist mind-set early on and thus built the wrong ideological mechanisms that halted the advent of Communist ideology according to Marx. As a result, it is fair to acknowledge that when looking at ontological reasons for collapse, one of them can be mentioned as the Soviet Union being built upon an ambiguous ideological platform wherein it espoused elements of Communism but was severely tainted and handicapped by Stalinist rhetoric.
In addition to the debilitating effects Stalins political manipulations had on the ideological foundations of the USSR, capitalisms successful reform dealt a supplementary blow to Soviet ideological credibility.
Instead of a final economic crisis anticipated by Stalin and others, Capitalism experienced an unprecedented boom [] all leading capitalist countries embraced the welfare state [] stabilising their social orders and challenging Socialism on its own turf.[14]
Adding to the changing nature of capitalism was the onset of de-colonisation during the 1960s, taking away more legitimacy with every new independence agreement. By the end of the 1960s, the metamorphosis of capitalism had very much undermined the Soviet Unions ideological raison dtre, as the differences between capitalism in the Great Depression [which the USSR had moulded itself against,] and capitalism in the post-war world were nothing short of earth shattering.[15] Here the ontological approach generally elaborates that Capitalism and incoherent ideological foundations brought about the disproving of the very political foundations the Soviet state rested upon and thus any social unrest leading to the collapse during Gorbachevs rule can be interpreted as logical by-products of the previous point. From this, it is possible to better understand how the crumbling of the legitimacy of the Communist ideology was a fundamental ontological factor behind the collapse of the USSR. Building on this, I will now look into how the establishment of society during Stalins rule also played a role in the collapse due to the shaping of a non-reforming society.
The Foundations of a Non-Reforming Society
One defect that would remain etched in the Soviet political-economic mind-set was the ontological tendency for non-reform. This trait would plague the very infrastructure of the Soviet Union until its dying days. The emergence of such a debilitating characteristic appeared during the very inception of the Soviet Union with the Kronstadt Sailors Uprising. This uprising occurred during the Tenth Party Congress in 1921 and would have severe repercussion for the Soviet Unions future as Congress delegates [] accepted a resolution that outlawed factions within the Party.[16] Thus, by stifling critical thinking and opposing views, this would effectively cancel out a major source of reform and act as an ontological shortcoming for future Soviet political-economic progress. This non-reformist trait was reinforced during Stalins rule with the constant pressure the Communist Party exerted on agricultural and industrial planners. Here, the party demanded not careful planning [] but enthusiasm; the leaders considered it treason when economists pointed out irrationalities in their plans.[17] Subsequently, planners were forced into a habit of drawing up unmanageable targets, which were within the partys political dictate. This meant, central planners established planning targets that could only be achieved at enormous human cost and sacrifice. [] [and lacked] effective feedback mechanism[18], which would provide insight to the flaws that existed in their plans. In the short-run this would only hinder the economy, but in the long-term it would lock the Soviet Union in a tangent where it could not reform itself in accordance to existent problems[19], thus leading it to a practically technologically obsolete state with a backwards economy by the time it collapsed.
Nevertheless, repression of critical thinking did not limit itself to the economic realm; it also occurred in the social sector where calls for the reform of the Socialist ideology were mercilessly crushed in Hungary in 1956 and in Czechoslovakia in 1968. It is possible to see a link here with the previous section of this chapter with regards to Stalins hijacking of the Communist ideology. In the two social movements cited, both pushed towards a shift away from Stalinist rhetoric towards an actual adoption of Marxist Socialism. In Czechoslovakia this social push came under the name of Socialism with a Human Face and wanted to permit the dynamic development of socialist social relations, combine broad democracy with a scientific, highly qualified management, [and] strengthen the social order.[20] Although these were only Soviet satellite states, the fact that they were repressed showed that by the 1960s, the Soviet Unions non-reforming characteristic had consolidated itself to the point that any divergence from the official party line in the economic or social sectors was seen as high treason. This leads us to the ambiguous area of Soviet polity and how it jeopardised the existence of the USSR when merged with ontological non-reform.
Polity is the term I use here because it remains implausibly unclear as to who essentially governed the USSR during its sixty-nine years of existence. It seems that both the CPSU and the Soviet government occupied the same position of authority, thus creating
a permanent crisis of governance. [Wherein] the party itself was never designed as an instrument of government and the formulation that the party rules but the government governs allowed endless overlapping jurisdictions.[21]
Adding to the confusion was the CPSUs role in society, defined by Article Six of the USSRs 1977 Constitution: The leading and guiding force of the Soviet society and the nucleus of its political system, of all state organisations and public organisations, is the Communist Party of the Soviet Union.[22] From here a profound ambiguity is seen surrounding the role of politics in the social realm. Accordingly, these two traits would create a profound ontological factor for collapse when merged with the non-reforming tendency of society. Due to the fact that when a more efficient leadership mechanism was sought out, it was impossible to identify how and what elements of the polity had to be changed.
It is here that an inter-linkage of approaches can be identified as the politys ontological inability to reform according to Gorbachevs decisional re-shaping of society contributed to the demise of the USSR.
The one-party regime ultimately fell owing to its inability to respond to immense social changes that had taken place in Soviet society- ironically, social changes that the Party itself had set in motion.[23]
Because Soviet polity was ontologically ill defined, when time came to reform it, the notion of what was to be changed obstructed the reform process. From this analysis, it is possible to see how ontological weaknesses in the over-lapping areas of politics and the social sector seriously hindered the Soviet Union. In the following section I will explore how ontological defects were of similar importance in the economic realm and were also interwoven with previously explained shortcomings.
An Economy in Perpetual Crisis
When looking at the economic realm there are a number of weaknesses that took root from the early days of the Soviet Union, the first aspect of scrutiny will be the ontological failure of economic centralisation and its contribution to the fall. In both the agricultural and industrial sectors, the USSR was unable to progress towards economic prosperity due to its flawed centralised economy. Agriculturally, centralisation meant that peasants were compelled to fulfil farming quotas set by the ministry in Moscow on land that solely belonged to the state. Consequently this generated two problems, the first one being a lack of incentive from the farmers and secondly, the inability of central authorities to cope with the myriad of different orders that had to be issued.
Central planners in Moscow seldom know in advance what needs to be done in the different regions of the country. Because of this [] sometimes as much as 40 to 50 per cent of some crops rot in the field or in the distribution process.[24]
Worsening this was the partys non-reforming tendency, which meant that the Soviet Union protected its misconceived collective and state farming network and made up for its agricultural ineptness by importing up to 20 per cent of the grain it needed.[25] This patching-up of ontological agricultural problems would result in an unpredictable and inconsistent agricultural sector as the decades passed, thus rendering it unreliable. This can be seen in the post-war agricultural growth rates that continuously fluctuated from 13.8 per cent in 1955 to -1.5 per cent in 1959 and finally -12.8 per cent in 1963![26] Such a notoriously unpredictable agricultural sector [] consistently failed to meet planned targets[27] and would remain an unresolved problem until the fall of the regime.
As for the industrial sector, the situation was difficult; with the disappearance of a demand and supply mechanism, the central authorities were unable to properly satisfy the material demands of society. Moreover, because of centralisation, most factories were the sole manufacturers of certain products in the whole of the USSR, meaning that an enormous amount of time and money was wasted in transport-logistics costs. Without the demand and supply mechanism, the whole economy had to be planned by central authorities, which proved to be excruciatingly difficult.
Prices of inputs and outputs, the sources of supply, and markets for sale were strictly stipulated by the central ministries. [] [and] detailed regulation of factory level activities by remote ministries [] led to a dangerously narrow view of priorities at factory level.[28]
Consequently, central ministries frequently misallocated resources and factories took advantage of this by hoarding larger quantities of raw materials than they needed. Although the ontological failure of centralisation did not have as immediate effects as certain short-term conjunctural or decisional factors, its contribution to the fall can be seen in how, combined with the economic shortcomings to be highlighted hereon, it gradually deteriorated the economy of the country.
In addition to the failure of centralisation was the failure of agricultural collectivization, which would have an even greater negative effect on the Soviet Union. When looking at collectivization we can see how its affects were multi-layered, as it was a politically motivated campaign that would socially harm society and destroy the economy. Agriculturally, Stalin hindered the Soviet farming complex from its very beginnings by forcing collectivisation on farmers and publicly antagonising those who resisted as anti-revolutionary kulaks. After the winter of 1929, Stalin defined the meaning of kulak as anyone refusing to enter collectives. Kulaks were subsequently persecuted and sent to Siberian gulags, the attack on the kulaks was an essential element in coercing the peasants to give up their farms.[29] These repeated attacks came from a Bolshevik perception that peasants were regarded with suspicion as prone to petty-bourgeois individualist leanings.[30] Due to these traumatic acts of violence, the peasantry was entirely driven into collectivisation by 1937; however, this only bolstered peasant hatred of the government and can be seen as the basis for the agricultural problem of rural depopulation that gradually encroached the country-side. By the 1980s,
The legacy of collectivization was everywhere in the Soviet Union. In the Vologda region alone, there were more than seven thousand ruined villages [] For decades, the young had been abandoning the wasted villages in droves.[31]
This agricultural depopulation can be seen in how the number of collective farms gradually shrank from 235,500 in 1940 to merely 25,900 in 1981[32]; causing severe labour scarcity concerns to the agricultural sector.
Industrially, collectivisation was not widespread, although in the few cases it appeared, it brought about much suffering to yield positive results. The mining city of Magnitogorsk is a prime example where Stalinist planners
built an autonomous company town [] that pushed away every cultural, economic, and political development in the civilized world [and where] 90 per cent of the children [] suffered from pollution-related illnesses.[33]
While the West followed the spectacular expansion of Soviet industry from 1920 to 1975, this was at the cost of immense social sacrifice in the industrial and agricultural sectors, which were entirely geared towards aiding the industrial complex. In addition to this, much of Soviet industrial growth after Khrushchevs rule was fuelled by oil profits emanating from Siberia, peaking from 1973 to 1985 when energy exports accounted for 80% of the USSRs expanding hard currency earnings.[34]
Overall, ontological non-reform inter-linked with the failure of collectivisation and a deficient command structure would gradually weaken the economy to the brink of collapse in the 1980s. This elaboration was made clear in the 1983 Novosibirsk Report, which
argued that the system of management created for the old-style command economy of fifty years ago remained in operation in very different circumstances. It now held back the further development of the countrys economy.[35]
Nevertheless, ontological problems behind the fall did not only restrict themselves to the economic, political or social realms but also existed regarding the nationalities question.
A Defective Union
When looking at the fifteen different republics that comprised the USSR, one may ask how it was possible to unite such diverse nationalities together without the emergence of complications. The truth behind this is that many problems arose from this union even though the CPSU maintained, until the very end, the conviction that all republics and people were acquiescent of it. Gorbachevs statement in 1987 that
the nationalities issue has been resolved for our country [] reflected the partys most suicidal illusion, that it had truly created [] a multinational state in which dozens of nationalisms had been dissolved.[36]
Today certain scholars see the independence movements of the early 1990s as a result of the ontological malformation of the Soviet Unions identity. The most common argument expounds that the independence movements fuelling dissolution occurred due to two ontological reasons. The first one can be seen as a consequence of Stalins rule and as part of his policy of divide and rule, where the borders between ethno-federal units were often demarcated precisely to cause maximum aggravation between peoples.[37] This contributed to the Soviet Unions inability to construct a worthwhile federal polity and an actual Soviet nation-state. In addition to this was the ontological exploitation of central Soviet republics and prioritisation of the Russian state. This created long-term republican discontent that laid the foundations of independence movements: Everything that went wrong with the Soviet system over the decades was magnified in Central Asia,[38] Moscow had turned all of Central Asia into a vast cotton plantation [] destroying the Aral Sea and nearly every other area of the economy.[39]
Overall, it is possible to argue that the collapse occurred due to inherent flaws in the foundations of the Soviet Union. Ontological factors behind the collapse were an admixture of socio-political and economic weaknesses that gradually wore at the foundations of the USSR. The first area analysed was the demise of the Marxist ideology that up-held the legitimacy of the Soviet Union. I then scrutinized the non-reforming tendency that settled in Soviet society very early on. Such an area eventually brought me to inspect the ontological flaws in Soviet economy, which had close links with the previous section. Finally, I examined inherent flaws in the USSRs union and how these also played a role in the demise. While the ontological factors represent a substantial part of the explanation to the downfall, decisional and conjunctural factors must also be examined to fully grasp the collapse.
Chapter Two: Was the Collapse of the USSR Decisional in Nature?
Whilst long-term flaws in the foundations of the Soviet Union played a major role in its demise, it is important to acknowledge that most of Gorbachevs reforms also had drastic effects on the survival of the union. From hereon, I will explore how the decisional approach explains vital short-term factors behind the collapse and cannot be forgone when pondering this dissertations thesis-question. To begin with, I will analyse the failure of Gorbachevs two major economic initiatives known as Uskoreniye (acceleration of economic reforms) and Perestroika. This will then inevitably lead me to the scrutiny of his socio-political reforms under Glasnost and how imprudent decisions in this sector led to widespread unrest in the USSR. Finally I will look into how Gorbachevs decisional errors led to most republics to opt out of the Soviet Union. But before I start it is important to understand that although I will be separating the economic reforms (Uskoreniye and Perestroika), from socio-political ones (Glasnost), these were very much intertwined as Gorbachev saw them as mutually complementary.
A Botched Uskoreniye and an Ineffective Perestroika
By the time Gorbachev rose to power in March 1985, ontologically economic problems had ballooned to disproportionate levels. His initial approach to change was different to his predecessor; he took advice from field-experts and immediately set into motion economic Uskoreniye (acceleration). At this point, economic reform was indispensible as the collective agricultural sector lay in ruins with a lethargic 1.1 per cent output growth between 1981 and 1985, whilst industrial output growth fell from 8.5 per cent in 1966 to 3.7 per cent 1985.[40] Although Gorbachev could not permit himself mistakes, it is with Uskoreniye that the first decisional errors regarding the economy were committed and cost him much of his credibility. Under Abel Aganbegyans advisory, Gorbachev diverted Soviet funds to retool and refurbish the machinery industry, which was believed would accelerate scientific and technological progress. He supplemented this effort by reinforcing the centralisation of Soviet economy by creating super-ministries, that way planners could eliminate intermediate bureaucracies and concentrate on overall strategic planning.[41] Whereas these reforms did have some positive impacts, they were not far reaching enough to bring profound positive change to Soviet industrial production. Moreover, in the agricultural sector, Gorbachev initiated a crackdown on owners of private property in 1986, which led farmers to fear the government, and would disturb the success of future agricultural reforms. His error with Uskoreniye lay in the fact that he had aroused the population with his call for a complete overhaul of Soviet society, but in the economic realm at least, complete overhaul turned out for most part to be not much more than a minor lubrication job.[42] Realising his mistake, Gorbachev acquired the belief it was the economic system he had to change, and set out to do just that with his move towards Perestroika (Restructuring).
Gorbachev had at first tried simply to use the old machinery of government to reform. [] the main reason why this failed was that the old machinery [] were a very large part of the problem.[43]
Although the term Perestroika did exist prior to Gorbachevs tenure in office, it was he who remoulded it into a reform process that would attempt to totally restructure the archaic economic system. Unlike the first batch of economic reforms [] the second set seemed to reflect a turning away from the Stalinist economic system,[44] a move that startled the agricultural sector which had been subjected to repression the prior year. In 1987, Gorbachev legalised individual farming and the leasing of state land to farmers in an effort to enhance agronomic production. However, this reform was flawed due to the half-hearted nature of the endeavour, wherein farmers were allowed to buy land but it would remain state-owned. Therefore, due to Gorbachevs reluctance to fully privatise land, many prospective free farmers could see little point in developing farms that the state could snatch back at any time.[45] Adding to this social setback was the purely economic problem, since
without a large number of participants the private [] movements could never attain credibility. A large number of new sellers would produce a competitive environment that could hold prices down.[46]
Thus, due to Gorbachevs contradictory swift changes from agricultural repression to reluctant land leasing, his second agrarian reform failed.
Industrially, Gorbachev went even further in decisional miscalculations, without reverting his earlier move towards ultra-centralisation of the super-ministries, he embarked on a paradoxical semi-privatisation of markets. Gorbachevs 1987 Enterprise Law illustrates this as he attempted to transfer decision-making power from the centre to the enterprises themselves[47] through the election of factory managers by workers who would then decide what to produce and work autonomously. Adding to this, the 1988 Law on Cooperatives that legalized a wide range of small businesses[48] supplemented this move towards de-centralisation. Combined, it was anticipated that these reforms
would have introduced more motivation and market responsiveness [] in practice, it did nothing of the sort [] workers not surprisingly elected managers who offered an easy life and large bonuses.[49]
Moreover, the Enterprise Law contributed to the magnitude of the macro and monetary problems. [] [as] managers invariably opted to increase the share of expensive goods they produced,[50] which led to shortages of cheaper goods. Whilst, the law had reverse effects on workers, the blame lies with Gorbachev as no effort was put into the creation of a viable market infrastructure.
Without private banks from which to acquire investment capital, without a free market, [] without profit motive and the threat of closure or sacking, managers rarely had the incentive [] to change their ways.[51]
By going halfway in his efforts to create a market-oriented economy, Gorbachev destroyed his possibilities of success. The existing command-administrative economic system was weakened enough to be even less efficient, but not enough that market economics could begin to operate,[52] in effect, he had placed the economy in a nonsensical twilight zone. Consequently, the economy was plunged into a supply-side depression by 1991 since the availability of private and cooperative shops, which could charge higher prices, served to suck goods out of the state shops, which in turn caused labor unrest[53] and steady inflation. Here, Gorbachev began to feel the negative effects of his reforms, as mass disillusionment in his capability to lead the economy towards a superior model coupled with his emphasis on the abolition of repression and greater social freedom (Glasnost) tipped the USSR into a state of profound crisis.
The Success of Glasnost
Having understood Gorbachevs economical decisional errors with Perestroika, I will now set out to demonstrate how his simultaneous introduction of Glasnost in the social sector proved to be a fatal blow for the Soviet Union. Originally, Gorbachev set out to promote democratisation in 1987 as a complementary reform that would aid his economic ones, he saw Glasnost as a way to create nation of whistle-blowers who would work with him[54] against corruption. To the surprise of Soviet population, Gorbachev even encouraged socio-economic debates and allowed the formation of Neformaly, which were leisure organizations [and] up to a quarter were either lobby groups or were involved in issues [] which gave them an implicitly political function.[55] Gorbachev initiated this move at a time when the USSR was still searching for the correct reform process. Thus, the Neformaly movement was a way for him to strengthen the reform process without weakening the party by including the involvement of the public. But as Perestroika led to continuous setbacks, Gorbachev began to opt for more drastic measures with Glasnost, upholding his belief that the key lay in further democratisation. In November 1987, on the 70th anniversary of the October revolution, Gorbachev gave a speech purporting to Stalins crimes, which was followed by the resurgence of freedom of speech and gradual withdrawal of repression. Intellectually, politically and morally the speech would play a critical role in undermining the Stalinist system of coercion and empire.[56] At Gorbachevs behest, censorship was decreased and citizens could finally obtain truthful accounts regarding Soviet history and the outside world. However, this reform proved to be fairly detrimental as Soviet citizens were dismayed to find that their country actually lagged far behind the civilized countries. They were also taken aback by the flood of revelations about Soviet history.[57] While this did not trigger outbursts of unrest in amongst the population, it did have the cumulative impact of delegitimizing the Soviet regime in eyes of many Russians.[58] After his speech, Gorbachev continued his frenetic march towards democratisation with the astounding creation of a Congress of Peoples Deputies in 1989. Yet again, Gorbachev had found that the reform process necessitated CPSU support, however, conservatives at the heart of the party were continuously moving at cross-purpose to his reform efforts. Hence, by giving power to the people to elect deputies who would draft legislation, Gorbachev believed that he would be strengthening the government, [and] by creating this new Congress, he could gradually diminish the role of the Party regulars [conservatives].[59]
Instead of strengthening the government, Gorbachevs Glasnost of society pushed the USSR further along the path of social turmoil. In hindsight, it is possible to see that
the democracy Gorbachev had in mind was narrow in scope. [] Criticism [] would be disciplined [] and would serve to help, not hurt the reform process. [] His problems began when [] disappointment with his reforms led [] critics to disregard his notion of discipline.[60]
As soon as economic Perestroika failed to yield its promises, the proletariat began to speak out en masse, and instead of constructive openness, Gorbachev had created a Glasnost of criticism and disillusion. This was seen following the 1989 Congress, as social upheavals erupted when miners saw the politicians complain openly about grievances never aired before [61] and decided to do the same. In 1989, almost half the countrys coal miners struck,[62] followed by other episodes in 1991 when over 300,000 miners had gone out on strike.[63] Very quickly, Gorbachev also came to sourly regret his Neformaly initiative as workers, peasants, managers and even the military organized themselves in lobby groups, some of them asking the Kremlin to press forth with reforms and others asking to revert the whole reform process. Gorbachevs decisional error lay in his simultaneous initiation of Perestroika and Glasnost; as the latter met quick success whilst the economy remained in free-fall, society was plunged into a state of profound crisis.
Party Politics
Alongside his catastrophic reform of society and the economy, Gorbachev launched a restructuring of the CPSU, which he deemed essential to complement his economic reforms. In 1985, Gorbachev purged (discharged) elements of the CPSU nomenklatura, a term designating the key administrative government and party leaders.
Within a year, more than 20 to 30 % of the ranks of the Central Committee [] had been purged. Gorbachev expected that these purges would rouse the remaining members of the nomenklatura to support perestroika.[64]
This attack on the party served as an ultimatum to higher government and party officials who were less inclined on following Gorbachevs path of reform. Nevertheless, as economic and social turmoil ensued, Gorbachev went too far in his denunciation of the party, angering party members and causing amplified disillusionment within the proletariat. Examples of this are rife: behind the closed doors of the January 1987 Plenum of the Central Committee, Gorbachev [] accused the Party of resisting reform.[65] In 1988, Gorbachev also fashioned himself a scapegoat for economic failures: the Ligachev-led conservatives were strangling the reforms.[66] Up until 1988, this attack on the party nomenklatura did not have far-reaching repercussions, but as Gorbachev nurtured and strengthened the reformist faction of the CPSU, infighting between the conservatives and reformist began having two negative effects. The first one was widespread public loss of support for the party; this can be seen in the drop in Communist Party membership applications and rise in resignations. By 1988 the rate of membership growth had fallen to a minuscule 0.1 per cent, and then in 1989 membership actually fell, for the first time since 1954.[67] The other negative repercussion lay in how party infighting led to the inability of the CPSU to draft sensible legislation. This was due to Gorbachev continuously altering the faction he supported in order to prevent one from seizing power. Such a characteristic can be spotted in his legislative actions regarding the economy and social sector, which mirrored his incessant political shifts from the reformist faction to the conservative one. In 1990, Gorbachev opted for more de-centralisation and even greater autonomy in Soviet republics by creating the Presidential Council where heads of each republic were able to have a say in his decisions. However, he reversed course in 1991 with the creation of the Security Council where heads of republics now had to report to him directly, thus reasserting party control. Concerning the economy, Gorbachev acted similarly: as earlier explained, his first batch of reforms in 1986 stressed the need for centralisation with super-ministries, but he changed his mind the year after with his Cooperatives and Enterprise Laws and agricultural reforms. Gorbachev constantly
switched course [] [his] indecisiveness on the economy and the Soviet political system has generated more confusion than meaningful action. [] After a time, no one seemed to be complying with orders from the centre.[68]
In effect, it is possible to see here an overlapping of approaches since the way party infighting affected Gorbachevs reforms can be seen as a contingent factor that obstructed reform or a decisional error on Gorbachevs behalf for having reformed the party in such a manner.
Overall, this incoherence in his reform process can be seen as the result of his own decisional mistakes. Having succeeded in his Glasnost of society and the party, Gorbachev had allowed high expectation to flourish regarding his economic reforms, expectations that were gradually deceived. Amidst this social turmoil, economic downturn, party infighting and widespread disillusionment, Soviet republics began to move towards independence as the central command of the Kremlin progressively lost control and became evermore incoherent in its reforms.
The Death of the Union
As the Soviet Union descended into a state of socio-economic chaos, individual republics began to voice their plea to leave the union. This can be seen as having been triggered by the combination of three decisional errors on Gorbachevs behalf. The first one was his miscalculation of the outcome of Glasnost, as by 1990
all 15 republics began to issue calls for either economic sovereigntyor political independence. []Gorbachevs efforts to induce local groups to take initiative on their own were being implemented, but not always in the way he had anticipated.[69]
Originally, initiative had never been thought of as a topic that could lead to independence movements, instead Gorbachev had introduced this drive to stimulate workers and managers to find solutions that were akin to the problems felt in their factory or region. Adding to this mistake were Gorbachevs failed economic reforms with Perestroika, and as the Unions economic state degenerated, individual republics began to feel that independence was the key to their salvation. Gorbachevs
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We live in a world where for the last 40 years everyone faces the risk of being infected by antibiotic-resistant bugs and contagious, infectious diseases. Humanity has become complacent to the global threat of new and re-emerging infectious diseases (such as: T.B.reemerging; the Avian flu that impacted as many as 40 countries; sexually transmitted diseases like HIV and AIDS; Ebola; Cholera; MRSAa Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus Aureus (thats a mouthful) MRSA is pronounced: mer-sa, and is a skin-eating bacteria that is resistant to antibiotics, is contagious, and rapidly progressing throughout the continental United States, and globally). Therefore, getting ready for a global pandemic is just as important as nuclear deterrence or avoiding the imminent repercussions of global warming catastrophes.
At the Munich Security Conference on bioterrorism, which occurred from February 17 19, 2017, philanthropist and Microsoft computer founder, Bill Gates warns that a global pandemic is right around the cornercould break out in as little as 10 to 15 years. Gates said, We are underprepared for a global pandemic but we have the technology to work on vaccines and other drugs; we just need the investment.
BIOTERRORISM & PANDEMICS: Bioterrorism and pandemics are real, folks. Germ warfare is not new, though. In my research at the University of Southern California, for example, more than two millennia ago, Scythian archers dipped arrowheads in manure and rotting corpses to increase the deadliness of their weapons. In World War I, the Germans spread glanders (an infectious disease that occurs primarily in horses, mules and donkeys, and other animals), among the mounts of rival cavalries. Then, in World War II, the Japanese dropped fleas infected with plague on Chinese cities, killing hundreds, maybe even thousands of people. In 1918, a deadly strain of flu, called the Spanish Flu (which was a naturally-occurring pandemic) killed between 50-100 million people. The next epidemic could originate on the computer screen of a terrorist intent on using genetic engineering to create a synthetic version of the smallpox virusor a super contagious and deadly strain of the flu, Gates said. Whether a global pandemic occurs by a quirk of nature, or at the hand of a terrorist, epidemiologists say an airborne, fast-moving pathogen could kill more than 30 million people in less than a year, Gates stated.
SOLUTIONS: How do we prepare, at the personal level, to fight contracting contagious infections that assault us everywhere or the onslaught of a pandemic? We could start with preparedness exercises with your families and even just with self. For example, make the washing of hands an intricate part of your daily living activitieseven when we are not confronted with a present epidemic. The washing of hands curtails the passing on, or contraction of, bacteria (germs). Cough in a handkerchief, tissue, or in your elbow area if you have a cold virus (mouth masks are helpful to wear to not pass on a flu or cold virus). I also cannot sufficiently emphasize to teenagers and adults alike, if you engage in sexual activities with someone that you are unfamiliar with their daily activities, or if you are having sex with multiple partners, PLEASE take the necessary precautions by wearing protective condoms. In fact, it is my opinion that teenagers are not emotionally prepared for adult sexual activities, anyway, therefore, they should abstain from having sex until they are responsible emotionally and financially to handle a possible pregnancy, or even the possible contraction of a sexually transmitted disease, that they may have to live with for the rest of their lives.
In a panic type of situation (i.e., an epidemic), plan in advance on how to deal with overloaded communication systems or clogged streets and highways. Keep emergency preparedness first-aid kits at home, at work, and in your car. Battery-operated flashlights should be kept in every room and in your car. It is always a good idea to keep extra drinking water, and extra food supplies. Hope this column helps you with ideas (some of you might hopefully already be practicing) on living responsibly and healthfully.
Check us out next week when well share with you, information regarding Obesity, Its Link to Degenerative Diseases, and Maintaining a Healthy Weight Management Compatible with Your Body Type.
Dr. Pam Reyes is Chairwoman of Caribbean Educational Media, a California 501(c)(3) nonprofit corporation, dispersing information on health, educational & legal issues, and exploring the communication highway of the present and future, via the media of print journalism, nonprofit public radio & television, and nonprofit public participation.
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Germ defense
L-R delivering wipes to Brooks Elementary are Jess Eastep-Youth Director at Killen Church of Christ, Eli Aday, Kurt Peck, Dimple Newell-BES Guidance Counselor, and Jonathan Aday.(Courtesy photo)
Posted: Tuesday, February 28, 2017 12:00 am
Killen Church Youth Taking Out Germs
KILLEN - The youth of the Killen Church of Christ recently launched Project Germ Warfare. They collected over 200 tubes of disinfectant wipes to help Brooks Elementary School and Brooks High School battle the germs that are spreading infection in all area schools. Killen church members were asked to donate disinfecting wipes at the church building, but everyone in the community is invited to help. Donations may be brought to the church building located at 1560 Highway 72 in Killen (at the traffic light) or by calling 256-757-2918. Donations may also be taken directly to the schools or may be sent with children who attend those schools.
Brooks High School had a clean-up period last week, so the initial delivery of wipes to the high school and elementary school took place the morning of February 20.
The photo titled BES Delivery depicts the stop at Brooks Elementary where we delivered 104 tubes of disinfectant wipes.
Posted in News on Tuesday, February 28, 2017 12:00 am.
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How bad is religious persecution in China?
This is a question Ive thought a lot about over the past few years. Since 2010 Ive been working on a project documenting a religious revival in China, and seen new churches, temples, and mosques open each year, attracting millions of new worshipers.
But Ive also seen how religion is tightly proscribed.
Only five religious groups are allowed to exist in China: Buddhism, Daoism, Islam, Protestantism and Catholicism. The government controls the appointment of major religious figures, and decides where places of worship can be built. It tries to influence theology and limits contacts overseas. And it bans groups it doesnt like, especially the spiritual practice Falun Gong, or groups it calls cults, like the charismatic Christian splinter sect Almighty God.
These problems are explained in a new and carefully researched study by Freedom House. The 142-page report, The Battle for Chinas Spirit, points out that some religions face little persecution. Daoists and Buddhists are faring well, while Catholics could soon enjoy better times, with ties possibly warming between Beijing and the Vatican.
But overall, the message is glum. Almost all groups are said to face serious restrictions, with three groups Uyghurs who practice Islam, Protestant Christians, and followers of the banned spiritual practice Falun Gong facing high or very high levels of government interference.
Cross-removals
While most of the facts in the study are correct, the context feels more negative than the religious world Ive experienced. Of course it is in the nature of such reports to be critical this is what watchdogs like Freedom House are for but it feeds into an overall assumption in western countries that the Chinese government is a major persecutor of religion.
According to the United States Commission on International Religious Freedom, for example, China is one of just 17 countries in the world listed as being of particular concern.
Let me highlight one area where I think Freedom House could have done better: Protestant Christianity. The Freedom House report focuses on a cross-removal campaign, which ran from 2014-2016 and saw over 1,000 crosses removed from the spires of churches, or the tops of buildings. In addition, a church was demolished.
On the face of it, this is horrific so many churches shorn of the very symbol of their faith. What better example of a heavy-handed atheistic state persecuting belief?
And yet I think this is not typical of Protestantism in China. Ive made several trips to the area where the crosses were removed and feel I know the region well.
Id say that the most important point is that virtually none of these churches have been closed. All continue to have worshipers and services just like before. In addition, the campaign never spread beyond the one province. Some pessimists see it as a precursor for a campaign that might spread nationally, but so far that hasnt happened and there is no indication it will.
What seems to have happened is a fairly special case. That region is at most 10% Protestant above the national average of about 5%, but still a minority. But local Christians decided to put huge red crosses on the roofs of buildings and churches, so they dominated the skyline of every city, town, and village across the province. That gave the impression that Christianity was the dominant local religion and irked many non-Christians.
Self-critical Christians told me that their big red crosses were meant well. They were enthused by their faith and wanted to proclaim it. But they also sheepishly said it might also have been a sign of vanity; rather than putting their money into mission work or social engagement, they wanted to boast about their wealth and faith. I felt they were a bit hard on themselves in a normal, healthy society an open expression of ones faith should be normal but it is true that it was also a potential provocation for a state that does not give religion much public space.
In short, this campaign was fairly specific and not representative of most Protestants religious experience in China. In his new book Chinas Urban Christians, Brent Fulton of the Protestant think tank ChinaSource, writes that political oppression is a secondary concern, even for underground Protestants. Instead he says what keeps pastors of these churches up at night are problems that religious leaders around the world would recognize: materialism and the lures of secular society. The government is a hassle, but is not their main problem.
This mirrors what Ive seen as well. Protestantism is booming and Chinese cities are full of unregistered (also called underground or house) churches. These are known to the government but still allowed to function. They attract some of the best-educated and successful people in China. And they are socially engaged, with outreach programs to the homeless, orphanages, and even families of political prisoners. To me, this is an amazing story and far outweighs the cross-removal campaign, which basically ended and seems to have had no lasting consequences.
Dark future?
Now, its true that all this could change. Last autumn, the government issued new regulations on religion. The most important point of the rules was to reemphasize a ban on religious groups ties to foreign groups for example, sending people abroad to seminaries, or inviting foreigners to teach or train in China. This is clearly part of a broader trend in China that we see in other areas. Non-governmental organizations are also under pressure, and the surest way to get unwanted government attention is to have links abroad.
Given the predilections of the Xi administration, these new religious regulations could be harshly enforced. We could see unregistered churches forced to join government churches. And we could see outreach programs closed down.
If this happens, then I would say that Protestantism would be suffering from a high degree of persecution. And if it happens well need hard-hitting reports condemning it in no uncertain terms. But until this crackdown really occurs, we might be missing the forest for the trees.
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Focusing on religious oppression in China misses the big picture - Gant Daily
Anofficial ISIS media outlet released a 30 minute video on February 27 that for the first time threatens China with attacks. Along with executions, the video included scenes that purported to show the daily life of its Chinese Muslim fighters.
In one scene, a militant addresses the camera before carrying out an execution, saying you Chinese people who dont understand the language of the people, we the soldiers of the Caliphate will come to you to teach you the language of weapons, to spill rivers of blood as revenge against the oppressors. The man then turns to the victim, who is wearing an orange jumpsuit and is hanging upside down from the ceiling, and slits his throat while a young boy looks on from the side.
Uighurs are a Turkic ethnic group who live mostly in Chinas western Xinjiang province. They practice Islam, and are often targeted by the Chinese government for religious and security reasons. Human Rights Watch previously reportedon government oppression of the sect,including a recent campaign to confiscate Uighur passports. On February 27 the Chinese army held anti-terror rallies in the heart of Xinjiang, assembling over 10,000 troops in the regions capital.
The new video references Chinese government persecution of the Uighur minority, showing footage of Chinese security forces detaining Muslims.
The video also includes scenes of armed children and teenage boys, undergoing religious and military training. Children are shown trainingwith weapons, and one child soldier simulates the execution of a prisoner who is kneeling. In one disturbing scene, a child referred to asAbd al-Rashid al-Turkistani, executes a kneeling prisoner. The child is shown pressing a pistol to the top of his victims head, and pulls the trigger.
ISIS has in the past reached out to Chinas Uighur population, releasing a video in 2015 calling on them to join the group and move to ISIS territory. According to a 2016 report released by an American think tank, over 100 Chinese Uighurs have joined ISIS.
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ISIS Threatens China In New Video Showing Chinese Jihadists - Vocativ