The Strange, Uncertain Fate of One of the World’s Most Valuable Salmon Habitats – The Nation

Fire and water: Tenders set anchor in Egekik Bay as the sun sinks in a sky painted gray by wildfire smoke. (Nathaniel Wilder)

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Coffee Point, AlaskaAnna Hoover and I ease up and down in limestone-colored water on a warm, windless afternoon in early July, our backs to the mouth of the Egegik River. Shes distracted, perched in the captains seat of her 32-foot drift boat. She glances at her phone, checking the time. The state manages fishing on a tight schedule here, opening the waters to fishermen and then closing them every few hours to let some salmon travel to their spawning grounds. Weve got five minutes until we unspool our nets.1Ad Policy

We sit 300 miles west of Anchorage in Bristol Bay, home to the largest, healthiest red salmon run on earth, where most wild-grown grocery-store fillets caught in the United States come from. Hoovers parents and grandparents fished here, and she has been hauling reds from this fertile finger of saltwater for most of her 34 years.2

This is her first summer as the captain of her own boat. She never doubted the decision to buy it. Shes always seen herself here, her hair pulled back in a bandanna, rubber coveralls flecked with fish scales, eyes gritty from sleep deprivation, adrenaline rising and falling with the tides that carry salmon into the nets.3

We joke how there are two kinds of peoplethe ones who cant stand it out here and the ones who cant live without it, she says. Fishing is in my blood.4

Still, no matter how many years you fish, she says, you always get a crackle of anxiety as you slip your nets into the water. So much can go wrongweather, gear tangling, mechanical problems, bad timing, the catastrophe of the fish failing to show up. The risk, though, is part of the draw. Fishermen, she tells me, have always been gamblers.5Current Issue

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For her generation of fishermen, investing here is more of a gamble than ever. Twin threats hang over this place where many of Americas salmon dinners come from: a rapidly warming climate, which has already scrambled the pattern of the seasons across vast swaths of Alaska, and Pebble Mine, a proposed open pit mine at the bays headwaters, which has been given new life by Donald Trumps administration. Many who live and fish here, including Hoover, worry that once the mine is built, pollution is inevitable and that together these two forces could destroy this rare, pristine ecosystem, threatening salmon, communities, and whole ways of life.6

I think of generations. So many people in the fishery have learned it from their families and want to pass it on, Hoover says. Around the world, people have disrespected salmon populations and their environments to the point where they are extinct or they are farmed. This place doesnt have thatyet.7

Hoover maneuvers us into position. Two crewmen stand ready on the deck. One is a high school English teacher with a toddler at home, the other a high school studenta good kid who never gets tired. There isnt room to mess this up. They have to make money this summer.8

At 4:45 precisely, Hoover motors forward. Her net sails into the sea.9

Catch of the day: Hoover navigates the scrum of fishing vessels to get in line to sell her haul toa tender. (Nathaniel Wilder)

Make a backward L with your right hand. Now rotate your arm as if youre looking at a wristwatch, so that the web between your thumb and index finger faces your body. Your hand will look like a rough map of Alaska, with your thumb as the southeastern panhandle and your index finger as the Alaska Peninsula, which stretches toward the Aleutian chain.10

Bristol Bay is tucked between your index and middle fingers, a wide body of water fed by a network of riversamong them the Cinder, Egegik, Igushik, Kvichak, Meshik, Nushagak, Naknek, Togiak, and Ugashikand dozens of lakes, large and small.11

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For millennia, several Alaska Native groupsthe Athabascans from the interior, the Yupik people from the southwest region, and the Aleuts from the southern coastal areacame here to fish. Commercial fishing began in the late 1800s, and the bay remains a rare jewel in a network of Alaska fisheries that are increasingly challenged by climate change. Roughly 38 million red salmon return to the bay every year, according to the Bristol Bay Regional Seafood Development Association. When they do, small fishing operations like Hoovers pop up to catch them over about six weeks of summer, a burst of industry that employs 14,000 people and generates $1.5 billion in revenue.12

Fishing is always volatile. The annual earnings in Bristol Bay might increase or decrease by $100 million, says Garrett Evridge, a fishing economist in Anchorage. But recently, fishing in the bay has been more lucrative than ever, defying patterns elsewhere in the state. Earnings more than doubled from 2015 to 2018. Some science indicates that warmer water in lakes and rivers has sped up the life cycles of young salmon, sending them out into the sea sooner, increasing their abundance. Scientists arent sure what that might mean over time.13

There is anxiety that the seasons have been too good and that the bay is headed to a reset or just back to historical averages, Evridge says. This is tough if youve just sunk your life savings into a boat and permit.14

Hoover grew up fishing out of Egegik, a tiny village on the southern part of the bay. Her great-grandfather fished halibut in the Gulf of Alaska before he settled in the region. Her grandfather ran a cannery. In the off-season, she lives in Naknek, working as a filmmaker.15

Hoover bases her fishing operation out of a camp in Coffee Point, which sits on land acquired by her husbands father after World War II, just across the river from Egegik. The camp has a big kitchen and living hall with bunks for a crew of 16. A collection of wood-sided outbuildings rises from the dunes, among them a massive shed for working on machinery, a tidy fleet of cars and ATVs, and a small cabin where Hoover and her husband, Eddie Clark, stay with their daughter, Amlia, who is 3. The workdays run around the clock. Hoover fishes, sells her catch, rides home, eats, sleeps for a few hours, and then heads back out.16

At the beginning, its exciting because you know the fishing is picking up, Hoover says. Once youre in it and doing two tides a day for two weeks, youre wiped out. Its a test.17

From her seat above the main cabin of the boat, Hoover eyes the arch of the net, white corks on the water like a string of pearls. Soon, splashes and flashes of silver scales churn along the line, just under the surface. Theres movement on all the boat decks around us.18

When the fish hit, Hoover says, you get an electric current in your heart. You marvel at your luck, at the abundance of the bay, fish thumping on the deck like coins pouring out of a slot machine. Theres a boat somewhere out there called Little Casino, she says. Lots of boats have names like that.19

If you are lucky, $50,000 worth of salmon can be caught in a day, Evridge says later. And all fishermen think they are lucky.20

To get to Coffee Point, Hoover must fly an hour west of Anchorage to King Salmon and then drive 10 miles to the fishing hub of Naknek. From there, she flies her own plane to the camp.21

Before she took a photographer and me on the boat, Hoover came to fetch us in a low-wing Piper Cherokee 140 with Amlia in a pink booster seat in the back. The plane is just large enough to seat four people and carry a few bags. It rattled down the rocky Naknek airstrip and lofted us into the air. We cruised low along the coast over the flat, green country, braided through with streams and rivers, stippled with too many lakes and ponds to count. This is the worlds purest salmon country.22

Throughout the Pacific Northwest over the last 50 years, in-river problems like dams, pollution, and deforestation have harmed many salmon runs. In Alaska, too, the fisheries have suffered. Over the last decade, king salmonthe largest kind, prized for their fatty meathave been consistently smaller, and their returns have fallen below expectations, for reasons scientists cant explain. Towns built around king salmon fishing tourism, like Kenai, south of Anchorage, have had to reenvision their economies. Locals in small river communities who relied on kings to fill their freezers for winter have had to switch to other species. In Southeast Alaska, commercial fishing forecasts have been grim.23

Red salmon had almost always been plentiful, but last summer a number of stalwart red fisheries in the Gulf of Alaska faltered. Returns came in late and weak; others barely came in at all. Fishermen used to four decades of strong fishing on the Copper River came home empty-handed. Off Kodiak Island, at the beginning of the season, boats pulled in nets full of jellyfish and nothing else. The starkest losses came in Chignik, a small Alaska Native community on the Alaska Peninsula, where commercial fishing is the only economy. From 2013 to 2017, the local fleet harvested an annual average of 18 million pounds of salmon, worth more than $15 million. But last year, the fleet earned less than $5,000, Evridge says. The state declared it an economic disaster.24

Scientists have been cautious about saying what happened with reds last year, insisting they need more time to study it. But many suspect the anomalies may have to do with rising ocean temperatures. A large pool of warm ocean water called the Blob moved north from Mexico in 2014. Blooms of toxic algae followed. Birds and mammals washed up dead.25

Yet even with last years weak returns elsewhere, Bristol Bays fishing remained strong, with fishermen harvesting some 232 million pounds of salmon worth nearly $281million, according to the Alaska Department of Fishing and Game. The reason, according to Tom Quinn, a University of Washington professor of aquatic and fishery sciences who has spent more than 30 years studying Bristol Bay, stems from the remote bays particular geography and topography, which makes it uniquely positioned to resist climate change. The lakes and rivers around it are fed by snowmelt, rain, and glacial runoff, and they have different depths and temperatures. This provides a diverse set of freshwater habitats for young salmon.26

Its undammed and unpolluted, Quinn says. Its not quite as God made it, but its in very, very good condition.27

Moreover, he adds, there isnt competition from Japanese fishermen as there once was, and the area is well managed by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game.28

Still, the threat of climate change looms large, hovering at the edge of every fishermans consciousness. This past summer was the hottest in Alaskas recorded history, with record-breaking temperatures and unprecedented drought. Quinns team reported the warmest temperatures it has ever seen in its decades studying the bay. Plus the flow of water in the rivers is extremely low.29

We will have to see how the salmon fare under these conditions, he says. If it becomes the new normal, there is reason to be very concerned.30

Netted: Red salmon are picked from a gill net at a frenetic pace to make sure the fish are delivered fresh to the buyer. (Nathaniel Wilder)

Hoover and I watch the big metal spool on the boat deck turn, reeling in the net. The fish come in C-shaped and muscular, with scales the color of moonlight, suspended in their last conscious moment. Mouths open, needle teeth. The crewmen shake them loose, each one a little puzzle of tangled line and fins. The fish pile around their boots. The deck glitters with a thousand scales.31

The average sea surface temperature outside Egegik in July has trended higher each decade since Hoover started fishing in elementary school. Today it is nearly 60 degrees, roughly 10 degrees higher than it was at the same time 30 years ago, according to the Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy. In August it reached 62.7 degrees, the highest temperature since records have been kept.32

Sometimes the fish are so warm when you pick em up, you can feel it through your gloves, Hoover says.33

Nature has become erratic in Alaska, with each season seeming to bring eerie new surprises. The state had never seen a year like this. In the spring, river and sea ice vanished earlier than ever before in many places. Temperatures soared 10 to 20 degrees above normal. Summer brought a severe, unprecedented drought. Anchorage hit 90 degrees for the first time on record. Birch leaves turned brittle and fell from the trees. Fires shut down the highway system for days, and one of them north of Wasilla chewed into a neighborhood, turning 51 homes to ash. Smoke hung over almost the entire state in late June and early July.34

Scientists are still sorting out the signs of trouble in the ocean. Seals, krill, seabirds and thousands of blue mussels washed up dead on the beaches. Hundreds of salmon perished in the lower Kuskokwim River, where water temperatures reached the 70s, before theyd had a chance to spawn. Scientists theorized the fish died from heart attacks caused by the heat. Later in the season, Hoover heard about Bristol Bay fishermen rescuing salmon from warm, shallow river water, carrying them in bags upriver toward their spawning grounds. By September, another mass of warm water similar to the Blob had formed off the Pacific Coast and was expected to move toward Alaska.35

Out on the bay on this early-July day, though, theres nothing but pink sky and the far-off sight of grassy muskeg atop sandy cliffs. Theres also fish. For three hours, we watch the crew slide their bodies across the deck into the cool, foamy water of the hold. The boat is heavy with them. In the captains seat, Hoover chews dried apples and sips tea. We pull in the final net of the day.36

(Nathaniel Wilder)

Climate change, for all its disruptions and distortions, isnt the only threat lurking over the bay. Far more menacing, from the point of view of Hoover and many others, is the prospect of Pebble Mine. The controversial extraction operation was first proposed 30 years ago. Hoover isnt an emotional person, but if you ask her about it, her voice thins.37

Pebble Mine is a large copper, gold, and molybdenum open pit mine set to be located in the Kvichak and Nushagak water systems, which feed into Bristol Bay. In its current iteration, it is slated to cover 8,000 acres, including a 608-acre pit thats almost 2,000 feet deep. This version, which is smaller than previous ones, would produce 1.4 billion tons of materials over 20 years.38

Environmentalists, scientists, and fishermen have warned for years about the dangers that would be posed by any mine in the area. The process of extraction would generate a massive amount of acidic toxic water that must be kept out of the larger ecosystem. The mine development would require building roads, power lines, pipelines and ports on undeveloped land, putting new stressors on fish habitat, says Lindsey Bloom, a longtime fisherwoman and a strategist with Salmon State, a political advocacy group opposed to the mine. It directly impacts thousands of years of subsistence relationships with the landscape, tens of thousands of jobs, billions of dollars a year in economic activity at regional, state and global networks, she adds.39

There was a time during the Obama administration when it seemed that the anti-Pebble forces won and the project would be stopped. In 2014 the Environmental Protection Agency issued what amounted to a preemptive veto of the mine proposal after determining that it would pose significant risks to the unparalleled ecosystem; later that year, a successful voter initiative gave the state legislature the power to approve or reject the mine, putting up an additional hurdle. Along the way, Northern Dynasty Minerals, the Canadian company behind the mine, lost several of its major backers.40

But now, as with many once-stalled extraction projects in Alaska, Pebble Mine is moving forward again, in a more modest form. In late July the EPAs leadership formally reversed the agencys 2014 position, reportedly after Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy, a Trump ally and mine supporter, met with the president on Air Force One. (Notably, EPA scientists still object. Theyve submitted over 100 pages of comments critical of the newest plan, saying that substantial concerns remain about adverse effects on the ecosystem.) The partnership now developing the mine has been pushing to get as far as it can through the federal permitting process before the next presidential election.41

For many of the mines opponents, the greatest concern is the possibility that the dam designed to contain a basin of concentrated toxic mine tailings could fail. They talk about other mine catastrophes, like the one in Brumadinho, Brazil, in January that buried hundreds of people and the Mount Polley disaster in British Columbia in 2014 that spilled a torrent of toxic water into neighboring lakes and rivers. Though the current mine plan is smaller than before, many say that once the mining begins, the size of the operation will expand.42

I talked about that with Cameron Wobus, a geomorphologist and consultant who specializes in assessing the hydrologic impacts of mining. He was hired by the Nature Conservancy, an international conservation group, to study the Pebble Mine proposal and presented his findings to the state legislature in April. He says that Pebbles tailings storage facility is 10 times larger than the Mount Polley mines and more than 50 times larger than the Brumadinho mines. The dam has to survive forever, but the plans project the odds of its failure only over 20 years, he says.43

Even barring a large disaster, smaller-scale pollution would be almost impossible to prevent, Wobus continues. They cant capture and treat all their contaminated water. It is not a stretch to say mines always leak. Water quality downstream of mines is never what it was before you built the mine.44

As currently planned, Pebble Mine would have massive water treatment needs, he adds. He says it would be the biggest mine-water treatment plant in North America.45

A spokesman for the Pebble Partnership, Mike Heatwole, states that the group fundamentally disagrees with the claim that all of the contaminated water produced by the mine cannot be treated and contained. He stresses that the mines footprint has shrunk and that more safeguards have been put in place to prevent pollution and help address environmental concerns. The facility is designed to stand the test of time, he adds. We continue to try to reach out to [fishermen] and try to share as much as we can, because we do understand peoples concerns.46

The EPA is now working with the Army Corps of Engineers to determine whether to grant the permit that Pebble needs under the Clean Water Act. The EPA can still raise concerns, but that may not stop the proposal from going forward. The cynic in me says the permit will go through, Wobus says, but I still have hope that science and reason could actually prevail.47

(Nathaniel Wilder)

Some communities in the region support the Pebble Mine project because of the jobs it would provide. But in Naknek, anti-Pebble signs are everywhereat the engine repair shop and the bar and on the bumpers of old trucks, right next to faded Sarah Palin and Trump stickers.48

Hoover pulls her boat into a long line at the tender, a larger vessel that will hoist the fish from our holds and weigh them. On the decks around us, crewmen mend nets. I count a half-dozen anti-Pebble flags catching the wind.49

After a long while, its our turn. The fishermen on board the tender are red-eyed and wired, facial hair gone feral. They scribble the weight of our fish on a sticky notepad and shovel them into the hold. Wildfire smoke makes the sinking sun glow crimson as a salmon egg.50

Friends have gotten law degrees to help fight the mine, Hoover tells me. She has written a dozen letters to officials involved with the permit process. Weve all testified so many times, she says.51

Still, the proposal moves forward. Assuming it survives the federal process, it will likely see a number of court challenges. Next will be a state permitting process. If the plan proves successful, the mine could begin operations within the next decade.52

Maybe I could get my boat paid off, Hoover says, before it really starts up. What she wants most of all, though, is for Amlia to know this life, too, and to be able to take it on someday.53

With the boat finally empty and our eyes dry with smoke and salt, we rock home in the dusky light, passing lines of fishing boats moored up, the crews napping in their cabins.54

Hoover tells me she listened to a story on NPR recently about how partisan the United States has become. Theres a fracture between two ways of thinking in the country, she says.55

Theres a fracture at the center of life in Alaska, as well. The oil revenues that used to pay for state government have declined, and the state budget is in crisis. Alaskans all have a deep allegiance to the wild place. But there are also the rich resources that bring people here and help them stay. Alaskans arent usually staunchly on one side or another, but still they find themselves in conflict. How much development can be done without risking the core of the place? The sides have gotten so far apart.56

For me, a healthy ecosystem is sacred, Hoover says. I respect it. If I could communicate it well enough, I feel that we wouldnt still be having this conversation.57

Hoovers drift boat comes to rest offshore from the fish camp. Clark, her husband, motors out to us in a smaller boat. As we glide over shallow water toward land, we see Amlias face in the square of Clarks truck window on the beach. She wiggles out of the open door, scampering to greet us. Hoover has a salmon to feed the crew. Amlia reaches for it, insisting she is big enough to hold it. Hoover gives it to her, and the little girl leads us back to camp, the head of the salmon hoisted high, its tail drawing a line in the sand.58

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The Strange, Uncertain Fate of One of the World's Most Valuable Salmon Habitats - The Nation

Red Sox CEO says ‘there’s a chance’ the team keeps Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez – Boston.com

With the Red Sox finishing a disappointing 2019 season on Sunday, the team heads into the offseason with more questions than answers. The question at the forefront of many discussions is what the team will do with Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez.

The Red Sox held their end-of-the-year press conference Monday morning, and team president and CEO Sam Kennedy fielded questions about the state of the team. When asked if theres a possibility of keeping both Martinez and Betts, Kennedy said, yes, there is a way, but obviously it will be difficult given the nature of their agreements.

The Red Sox have made it clear that their intention this offseason is to get the teams payroll under the $208 million Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) for the 2020 season. This is a difficult task with the teams payroll currently sitting at nearly $230 million.

Martinez has a player option for the 2020 season and may opt-out of his remaining three years of his contract, making him a free agent. Betts has one year left on his deal before becoming a free agent in 2021 and will go to arbitration this offseason unless a contract extension is agreed upon.

There is a possibility that one or both of Bett and Martinez are no longer with the club at the start of the 2020 season, but Kennedy insists that both players are wanted long-term.

You want J.D. Martinez in the middle of your lineup, Kennedy said. Hes a world champion and was a key part of last years success, so we will see where it goes in the future, but we havent engaged in any specific discussions.

Kennedy also discussed his admiration for Betts.

We absolutely love Mookie Betts as a player, as a person, weve gotten to know his family, you hope that hes a guy that is here for the long term, Kennedy said.

Red Sox chairman Tom Werner said that team is hopeful Betts will accept an extension this offseason to avoid arbitration, where he is likely to receive around $30 million for the season. If Betts is unwilling to sign an extension, Werner said that the team will look into, what is Plan B or Plan C.

The Red Sox still have yet to fill the vacant general manager position let empty when the team chose to part ways with Dave Dombrowski. Free agency begins following the end of the MLB postseason.

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Red Sox CEO says 'there's a chance' the team keeps Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez - Boston.com

Women’s football welcomes fans but must prevent offensive chanting – The Guardian

Growth brings change. It is inevitable. Womens football is growing at an impressive rate. Attendances are starting to climb. The showpiece fixtures 24,790 at the London Stadium on Sunday, 24,564 at Stamford Bridge and 31,213 at the Etihad on the opening weekend are stealing the headlines and attendance figures are already closing on the number of fans across all 110 WSL games last season (92,000). But the more standard home venues of womens teams are also seeing more fans through the turnstiles too.

Providing a welcoming environment for all is important. It would be easy and understandable for long-time fans of the womens game, who have stuck with it through the cold and empty lows, to resent slightly the arrival of new kids on the block or any changes to their usual routine or to the way things are done.

And there is an element of that in the attitudes towards Manchester United fans on the clubs re-entry to womens football last season. These are not fans of womens football per se, they are fans of Manchester United and, as such, bring the everybody hates us but we dont care swagger of the clubs supporters as a whole into Leigh Sports Village to cheer on Casey Stoneys side each week.

What is not OK is when chants are offensive. The always the victim, its never your fault chants directed at Liverpool by United supporters at Leigh on Saturday have rightly been flagged to the FA by the Merseyside club.

For victims, families and fans that had to embark on a gruelling 30-year fight against multiple sections of the establishment to be cleared of any blame for the deaths of 96 supporters at Hillsborough it is hugely offensive and triggering. Never your fault has over the years made a mockery of their fight for the truth.

There is no place for this type of chanting in football. To have this chant rear its head at a womens football match is unprecedented and hugely disappointing. Manchester United and the FA have said they are both investigating and it is right that this incident is dealt with firmly.

In May fans of Manchester City mens team defended a version of Allez, Allez, Allez using the line victims of it all and battered on the streets being sung by players and staff members on a plane saying they were referring to the incident between Mo Salah and Sergio Ramos in the 2018 Champions League final. Manchester United mens team fans have previously claimed to be using the chant in reference to the Luis Surez racism row. But if something is considered offensive, just saying it is not, or challenging the affronteds interpretation, does not make it inoffensive.

But one has to be careful about blaming the influx of new fans into the womens game for this incident. Football reflects attitudes in wider society. Hate speech and bullying have seeped into the mainstream, where to shock is the norm, where the Katie Hopkinses and Tommy Robinsons of the world can make livings from being controversial and offensive. In a week where Boris Johnson, Dominic Cummings and their ilk are the focus of a debate around appropriate language it should be no surprise that there are similar conversations about respect in football.

There is a lot to like in the fiery atmosphere more fans bring. For one, players like playing in intense environments; they thrive off their passion on the pitch being mimicked in the stands. After Toni Duggan scored in front of a sold-out 60,739 fans at the Wanda Metropolitano against the Atltico Madrid team she has now joined, she gushed about the quality of the crowd being more important than the quantity.

Theres a picture of me celebrating and behind me theres actually a man putting one finger up, she recalled. Im not promoting that or saying its a good thing but it kind of showed what it meant. You could feel the passion in the stadium that day. It was a real atmosphere.

When United played champions Arsenal for the first time in the Womens Super League a week ago, tensions were high. That it was an 89th-minute goal that would give the Gunners all three points ensured the ground became more of a cauldron as the clock ticked. The booing of Jordan Nobbs, whose return from a World Cup-ending cruciate ligament injury has been well documented, when she was scythed down in her own half was a little distasteful. The same old Arsenal, always cheating was just a bit irrelevant to followers of the womens team.

The Man City reject chants at Mel Lawley were slightly ironic given the player she had slid into, Ella Toone, was also a former Manchester City player. The boos as players names were read out and the booing of substitutes, all added to a feeling that they are going against a sort of unwritten rule that in womens football you should cheer not jeer, that the family friendly atmosphere must be preserved.

But why? And what exactly is a family friendly atmosphere? Part of the joy of standing in the stands watching mens football, particularly as a child, is watching and experiencing collective euphoria/devastation/frustration. It is of seeing your parent or sibling swear with raw instinctive emotion, unusually uncensored, and feeling as if, for once, you are being treated as an adult and trusted to use your judgment rather than being tiptoed around.

There is a difference between a family friendly environment and an infantilised and sterile one that casts aside some of the best bits of fandom in search of a purified utopia. The balance must be found.

More people in the womens game means a bigger demographic and wider views will be represented at grounds. That includes a sometimes vocal minority. That does not mean inappropriate behaviour should be accepted. Football can and should lead the way on challenging lazy stereotypes, racism, sexism and offensive behaviour and use education, bans and its influence to change things. But until these ugly views from society are eradicated they will rear their heads in sport, which must make sure it keeps cracking down on them.

Seattle Reign confirmed a place in the NWSL play-off finals with a 2-0 win over Portland Thorns. With Chicago Red Stars beating Utah Royals 1-0 and Washington Spirit earning a surprise win against North Carolina Courage, the final games of the season will determine who plays whom.

Chelseas Millie Bright has withdrawn from the England squad for the Lionessess upcoming friendlies against Brazil and Portugal. Manchester City defender Gemma Bonner has been called up.

ESPN have reported that US Soccer have made an approach to Arsenal manager Joe Montemurro about the US Womens National Team top job. Montemurro is said to have expressed an interest in the role but has been blocked from interviewing for the position by Arsenal, having signed a long term-contact extension in November.

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Women's football welcomes fans but must prevent offensive chanting - The Guardian

Why is Poland’s Law and Justice party still so popular? – EUROPP – European Politics and Policy

Polands ruling Law and Justice party has a lead in the polls ahead of the countrys parliamentary election on 13 October. Aleks Szczerbiak writes that despite intense domestic and international criticism, the party remains popular because it is trusted on the socio-economic issues that voters care most about.

Polands parliamentary election on 13 October is likely to be one of the most important and consequential since the collapse of communism in 1989. During the last four years, the current government, led by the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party, has come under heavy fire from its political opponents for allegedly undermining democracy and the rule of law in its approach to the judiciary, media, public appointments and civic rights.

It has also been in an ongoing conflict with the EU political establishment and subject to intense criticism from much of the western opinion-forming media. However, Law and Justice remains very popular and enjoys a clear lead in the opinion polls. The Ewybory website that aggregates voting intention surveys shows the party averaging 45% compared with 26% for the Civic Coalition (KO) electoral alliance led by the liberal-centrist Civic Platform (PO), the countrys governing party between 2007-15 and currently the main opposition grouping.

The Polish election is more open that it initially appears. Even if, as seems almost certain, Law and Justice wins the largest share of the vote, it is far-from-clear whether or not it will retain its overall parliamentary majority and continue to govern without needing the support of other parties. This depends on the precise share and final distribution of votes between the governing party and opposition groupings, particularly how many of the latter enter parliament and the votes cast for parties that fail to cross the representation threshold. A relatively small number of votes could determine the outcome either way. Nonetheless, as things currently stand there is a strong possibility that Law and Justice will secure re-election for a second term.

So why is Law and Justice still so popular? Firstly, and perhaps most importantly, the party is trusted by voters on the socio-economic issues that they care most about because it has delivered on many of the high-profile social spending pledges which were the key to Law and Justices 2015 election success. The most significant of these was its extremely popular flagship 500 plus child subsidy programme which was extended this year to cover all families with any number of children.

The 500 plus programme has had an important symbolic effect, providing a significant and clearly identifiable financial boost to many low-income households who felt frustrated that they had not shared sufficiently in Polands post-communist economic transformation. Many Poles feel that, while politicians often promised to help the less well-off, Law and Justice is the first governing party to actually deliver on these pledges on such a scale. At the same time, although the governments opponents argue that the huge expansion of social spending and tax cuts places a massive strain on public finances, economic growth is strong, unemployment at its lowest for years, and increased tax revenues have actually led to a reduction in the state budget deficit.

At a September election rally launching the partys plans to build a prosperous state (pastwo dobrobytu) grounded in social solidarity, Law and Justice augmented its array of social welfare commitments by announcing plans to almost double the minimum wage by the end of 2023, and introduce regular annual cash bonus payments for pensioners and retirees. Together with earlier social welfare spending pledges, these programmes are aimed at raising the electoral stakes for key groups of Law and Justice core voters, thereby encouraging them to vote in October out of fear that the opposition may water them down or abandon them if it were to win office.

Defending national identity and traditional values

Secondly, Law and Justice has put itself at the head of a moral crusade projecting the party as the defender of the traditional family, Polish national identity, and Christian values and culture. These, it argues, stabilise the social order and promote the common good but are threatened by a great offensive of evil (wielka ofensywa za). Initially, this could be seen in the partys strong opposition to the EUs extremely unpopular compulsory migrant relocation scheme in the run-up to the 2015 election, when Law and Justice argued that Muslim migrants from the Middle East and North Africa would be difficult to assimilate and threatened Polands national security. More recently, the party has opposed what it terms LGBT ideology: an allegedly aggressive movement and policy agenda based on foreign ideas promoted by left-wing enemies of western civilisation.

These are certainly polarising issues that strike an emotional chord with many Poles because they involve a clash of basic moral-cultural values and map on to some of the deepest divisions in Polish society. A defence of traditional moral codes and pushing back against western cultural liberalism has always been a key element of Law and Justices appeal to more socially conservative voters. Consequently, raising the issues salience (according to the opposition, cynically as a pretext to create an atmosphere of moral panic) certainly helps to mobilise the partys core supporters in smaller towns and rural areas where such values still hold considerable sway.

But Law and Justice has framed its arguments so that they do not simply mobilise its core electorate but also win broader public support for the party. The vast majority of Poles supported the Law and Justice governments strong opposition to the EUs mandatory relocation scheme, keen to avoid the kind of cultural and security problems that they felt western European countries have experienced through admitting large numbers of Muslim migrants. The fact that, unlike in many western European cities, there have been no Islamist terrorist attacks in Poland increased Poles sense that they lived in a relatively safe country and that this was threatened by alleged EU-imposed multi-culturalism.

Similarly, while Poles appear to be increasingly tolerant of LGBT lifestyles, popular acceptance starts to decline when the agenda moves beyond how individuals choose to live their private lives into areas which they feel belong to the realm of family life, such as proposals that appear to diminish the role of parents as the primary educators of their children in matters of sexual relations and morality. While Poles are fairly evenly divided on the question of legal recognition of same-sex civil partnerships, a substantial majority oppose same-sex marriage (set out in the Polish Constitution as the union of a man and woman) and are overwhelmingly against granting adoption rights to same-sex couples. Many, including those who are not especially religious, are also extremely hostile to the profanation of Catholic symbols by LGBT activists, as in Poland many of these are also regarded as broader national symbols.

Re-distributing prestige

Thirdly, the negative publicity surrounding various allegations of government scandals, and the abuse of public office by Law and Justice politicians for partisan or private ends, does not appear to have damaged the ruling party to any great extent. Law and Justice has generally been quick off-the-mark in acting decisively to neutralise these scandals, if necessary by dismissing the implicated officials. For example, in July Marek Kuchciski was forced to resign as Law and Justice parliamentary speaker following allegations that he had used an official aeroplane for private flights. The partys supporters appear to regard such allegations as either false, the occasional lapses of a generally honest party, or endemic to Polish politics with Law and Justice at least attempting to ensure that it was not only the governing elites that shared in the fruits of economic transformation.

Similarly, Law and Justice has been tactically adroit in knowing when to defuse, and not expend too much political capital on, contentious issues, and retreat when the party does not consider these to be priorities or core elements of its governing programme. A good example of this was the abortion issue when, although they personally supported tightening Polands already-restrictive law, in autumn 2016, facing an unexpectedly large groundswell of public opposition, Law and Justice parliamentarians voted down legislation sponsored by Catholic civic organisations representing the partys core religious right electorate to make the practice illegal in all cases except when the mothers life was at risk.

Fourthly, Poles have been prepared to cut Law and Justice a lot of slack. For sure, the party has robustly denied the oppositions allegations that it has undermined democracy and the rule of law. Many Poles accept the governments argument that its actions were necessary to restore pluralism and balance to institutions which, they said, had been expropriated by extremely well-entrenched, and often deeply corrupt, post-communist elites. Moreover, even if they have misgivings about some of the governments specific measures, particularly its approach to constitutional issues and civic rights, many others still feel that, for all its faults, Law and Justice was at least attempting to tackle some of the apparently intractable problems with, and shortcomings of, the Polish state which have been ignored by previous administrations.

An important element of this that was linked to but went beyond the simple question of financial transfers was what some commentators termed the re-distribution of prestige: whereby many ordinary Poles who previously felt themselves to be second-class citizens started to regain a sense of dignity and that, as they saw it, their government finally cared about the less well-off and was trying to restore an elementary sense of justice and moral order.

A weak and unconvincing opposition

Finally, Law and Justice has benefited from the fact that the liberal-centrist opposition has failed to develop a convincing and attractive programmatic alternative on key socio-economic issues. The opposition also lacks a convincing figurehead around whom it can rally. Civic Platform leader Grzegorz Schetyna is as an extremely effective behind-the-scenes political operator but lacks dynamism and charisma and is currently Polands least trusted politician. Recognising his lack of wider appeal, Mr Schetyna has taken a back-seat in the election campaign with Civic Platform promoting the more emollient but low-key former parliamentary speaker Magorzata Kidawa-Boska as its prime ministerial candidate.

Opposition strategists recognise that, rather than trying to outbid Law and Justices huge expansion of individual social transfers and welfare benefit programmes (although it has promised to continue with them), they should focus instead on improving the quality of public services, especially health and education. However, while many Poles feel that these services have been neglected, they are also dubious as to whether the opposition which is too associated with the previous, discredited Civic Platform administration offers a credible alternative and would actually deliver any improvements. Law and Justices election victory reflected widespread disillusionment with the countrys ruling elite and a strong prevailing mood that it was time for change, and the ruling party simply has much greater credibility on these social policy issues having implemented most of the spending promises on which it was elected.

Complacency is the greatest threat

The opposition should not be written off and retains considerable political assets including: a sizeable potential base of popular support; substantial financial resources and the backing of most of the privately-owned media; and significant influence within, and widespread support from, the countrys cultural, legal and business elites. Election campaigns can also, of course, develop their own specific dynamics, and a change in the political context or the emergence of a particular issue could still turn things around, given that government and opposition camps actually remain fairly evenly matched in terms of their combined overall levels of support. Nonetheless, as things stand, the greatest threat to Law and Justice probably comes not from the opposition, but the danger of its own leaders and supporters succumbing to complacency and over-confidence.

Please read our comments policy before commenting.

Note: This article originally appeared at Aleks Szczerbiakspersonal blog. The article gives the views of the author, not the position of EUROPP European Politics and Policy or the London School of Economics.

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About the author

Aleks SzczerbiakUniversity of SussexAleks Szczerbiak is Professor of Politics and Contemporary European Studies at the University of Sussex. He is author ofPoland Within the European Union? New Awkward Partner or New Heart of Europe?(Routledge, 2012) and Politicising the Communist Past: The Politics of Truth Revelation in Post-Communist Poland (Routledge 2018). He blogs regularly about developments on the Polish political scene athttp://polishpoliticsblog.wordpress.com/

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Why is Poland's Law and Justice party still so popular? - EUROPP - European Politics and Policy

Brexit: Systemic Risk and a Warning – Resilience

1. Introduction

It was only after the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union that people began to seriously consider how it might be achieved. Some had assumed it would be trivial. For them, even waiting out the two-year official notice period prior to departure was an indulgence that displayed an unpatriotic lack of resolve.

Most were not so sanguine. But on all sides, there was a general unawareness of just how complex and risk-laden the departure would be. This only gradually came into view. Months after the run-down had been triggered it was discovered that over759 treatieswould have to be renegotiated. There was growing alarm that the intricate web of Just-In-Time logistics that enable industry,supermarketsand medical care could be profoundly disrupted, especially if the UK left without a deal. Each week new concerns came to the fore,for example, how do you slaughter millions of livestock and dispose of the carcases if the market for them evaporates? When the scale of the potential disruption became clearer, militarycontingency plannerswere drafted into various government departments to help direct the response.

As the first (March 29th) departure date approached, leakedCabinet Office documentsemphasised that Operation Yellowhammer, the contingency command and control structure, could be overwhelmed in the case of a no-deal exit. Sources quoted said that the planning was too little, too late, echoing thewarningsof business and union leaders about the preparedness of their companies. Summer 2019 brought another leaked Cabinetwarning, again about the countrys lack of preparations for a no deal departure on the revised date of October 31st, while the civil servant in charge of the UKs no-deal contingency planning announced hisdeparturefrom office, all adding to the impression that preparedness planning was being overwhelmed by an impossible task.

In September the government was forced to release the Operation Yellowhammer Reasonable Worst Case Planning Assumptionsof a no-deal which included extended disruptions to fuel, food, and medicine supplies, higher food prices affecting the most vulnerable, jammed ports and a prolonged and significant decline in ferry traffic, and the potential for civil unrest. When a very similar version was leaked some weeks before, The Freight Transport Association said:This is the first time the industry is learning of any threat to fuel supplies a particularly worrying situation, as this would affect the movement of goods across the country, not just to and from Europe, and could put jobs at risk throughout the sector which keeps Britain trading. As this document cannot account for all the potential compounding and interactions of the diverse impacts enumerated, it should not be considered a worst-case assumption.

Since the vote, the level of social and political fracturing has intensified. Norms of public and political behaviour are repeatedly tested, and the atmosphere has become febrile and polarized. For a growing number of people Brexit has morphed from political choice intosacred value, with the corresponding rise in the risks supporters are willing to impose upon their fellow citizens to see it to its brisk conclusion, and even that may never be enough. In Northern Ireland, deeply polarised but at peace, wounds are re-opening as a potential hard border with the Republic of Ireland test identities and economic dependencies. Parliament and the government remain trapped in a state of hyper-animated stasis. While outside, pounding on its gates, Nigel Farages one-man political party rouses his followers with talk of betrayal to the accompanying sound of anair raid siren.

As the UK is deeply enmeshed within global systems, it is also a potential source of external contagion. Ireland, the Netherlands, and France are among countries working on contingency plans, but in an interconnected and interdependent world, theres scope for all manner of surprise. This is especially pertinent at a time when the global economy is increasingly fragile, trust within and between countries has declined, a global banking and Eurozone crisis has only been parked, and the range and intensity of global threats are growing.

The United Kingdoms civil service is professional and competent, while its contingency capacities are amongst the best in the world. Yet managing a departure to mitigate bad outcomes, even with a dedicated16,000 civil servants, a lead-time, and a specified departure date, has revealed a level of response complexity that any modern society would struggle to match. Brexit, especially its no-deal variant, presents a broad societal shock on a range of temporal scales directly affecting social relations, governance, international relations, supply-chains, critical infrastructures, economic production and demand, financial stability, public health and security. It is a potential systemic risk, affecting the operating systems that sustain and integrate society and collective welfare.

But Brexit is only a fragmentary manifestation of much wider and deeper processes that are rapidly transforming the risk environment to which all societies are exposed. This essay uses Brexit as a leitmotif to explore this transformation. Through it we can observe the casual complacency we share about how our societies function and service our most basic needs, while it becomes ever-more vulnerable as the complexity, efficiency and interdependencies that underpin it grows. And secondly, it demonstrates how multiple stressors, environmental and socio-economic can interact to generate new stresses and tipping points.

It is the interactions between intensifying stresses and shocks, and their convergence through more vulnerable societal systems that is the defining process underlying the stability and fate of societies. Seen from this perspective, it is likely that we are severely underestimating the potential for large-scale systemic risks. Therefore, whatever the outcome, the preparations for a no deal Brexit should be regarded as a warning and a test-run for the far greater stresses and shocks to come no matter where you live.

With the certainty of near-term non-linear changes, the critical assumption of the relationship between past and future risk must now be revisited-Global Assessment Report, United Nations Office of Disaster Risk Reduction. 2019

Just as we rarely notice the ground until we trip, we take for granted the web of conditions that make the everyday run smoothly. Think of the supply-chains that feed our supermarkets and businesses; the electric grid that enables the clean water, communications, transport and manufacturing that our societies rely upon; the financial systems that sustain the flows of goods and services; and the societal cooperation that protects our security and capacity to respond to problems.

But we are the freaks of human history, see figure. The conditions through which we sustain ourselves is an outlier, the emergent outcome of exponential population, economic, and complexity growth in a re-enforcing cycle with the accelerating energy and material flows that are essential to sustain each level of complexity and to adapt to dynamic societal and ecological environments.

Figure:World population and per capita Gross World Product. What we take for granted is an aberration in human history- a 250-year cycle of accelerating population, economic, and complexity growth. (Data: Maddison).

In most developed parts of the world, food shortages, seasonality, and variability of supply, our bedfellows through the history of life have disappeared. In the UK only aboutone percentof the population are now involved in agriculture, yet we take an abundance and variety of food for granted. And even those few workers can in most cases be considered not so much producers of food, but a staging post where energy, fertilizers, seeds, feed, pesticides, pharmaceuticals and machinery are combined before food is shipped, processed and delivered. Its cheap freeing up the capacity of the economy for the diversity of other goods, services and jobs. And its efficient theres only a few of days food available in our cities, though weve had little incentive to notice.

The intricacies of the conditions that underpin society confound the imagination, but we can make a gesture towards it. Consider the BMW factory in Oxford which makes 1,000 Minis a day, each one containing over 4,000 parts, three-fifths coming through the port ofDover. These parts arrive in precise sequences and are delivered directly onto the production-line on a Just-in-Time basis. One can make a simple estimate that each of those parts comes from a factory which itself has an average of 400 inputs (assuming theyre less complex), and again, each of those in turn come from a factory with another 400 inputs then just three steps down the supply-chain there are already a potential 640 million supply-chain interactions.

But thats barely the start of it. The factories, productions systems, and employees are sustained within the fabric of a global civilization. They depend upon electrical grids, transport, water, fuel, telecommunications and financial networks and all their conditional dependencies. They rely upon the skills of workers, and the education, housing, and food that makes them productive. They require the extraction, processing, delivery and affordability of energy and other raw materials that are essential to maintaining systemic complexity and its capacity to adapt. They depend upon the relative stability of a variety of socio-economic, environmental, climatic and geological conditions across the globe. Globalized economies of scale are required to make the whole thing viable. For people to afford the cars, they too must ply their own trade, which depends upon the same global systems integration. The evolved regularities of our collective behavior trust, myth, group identities, institutions, legal systems, cultural norms and expectations that give coherence and direction to the physical flows of goods and services.

Nobody designed this vast, intricate and synchronized web of supporting conditions, theres nobody in control. We are not its architect we are expressions of its emergent living architecture. Its myriad parts, including our own feelings, perceptions and understanding of the world evolved, interacted and adapted together to create an increasingly singular, global, high-speed, efficient and interdependent human system. People and organizations may have power and control within niches, but they are dependent upon, and constrained by the totality of the relationships.

Returning to our car, if just one of those 400 suppliers to the Mini factory loses one critical input, due, for example, to distant flooding (as happened after the 2011 flooding in Thailand), a major bankruptcy ( for example, 2016 insolvency of Hanjin shipping) or large-scale societal fracturing (the social and economic collapse of Venezuela) , then the whole production process halts. Having the remaining 399 other parts at hand makes no difference. This unavailability can then travel up the supply-chain, potentially shutting our Mini factory. This vulnerability to the weakest link is an example of the potential for the non-linear amplification of shocks in societal systems small disruptions can have big impacts. Because some of the supply-chain operates on a Just-In-Time basis, even interruptions of a few hours can cause significant problems. The more complex a society, the more it depends upon constituent parts whose viability depends upon more inputs and supporting conditions, and thus the more vulnerable it is to the failure of its weakest links.

Yet, the extraordinary thing is that anything works at all, given that increasing complexity and globally dispersed time-sensitive interdependencies are the very things that can multiply the paths through which a myriad of potential disruptions can propagate? With so many semi-opaque sources of latent risk, why arent we permanently in crisis? Part of the reason is that such a complex society couldnt have evolved if parts of the system were being continually interrupted. The other is that the system has self-organized to stabilize and suppress volatility (see appendixherefor further discussion).

Thus, while we notice change, our families growing older, new technologies, shifting culture and mores, and the psychodrama of public and political life, behind it is a system-of-systems that is stable and taken for granted. When we expect to present our bankcard at a supermarket in a few days, plan a meeting next month, roll-out an infrastructure project that will take years to complete, we are assuming a mindboggling level of systemic coherence and its on-going persistence.

Our recent experience has habituated us to such assumptions. Of course, there have been disruptions, disasters, recessions and unpleasant surprises, but they are but tiny and transient scratches upon our civilizational organism. We assume returns to trend, recovery follows recession, and technology must continue adapting and complexifying. Across scales, civilizations systems have been resilient, able to bounce back from shocks or adapt in response to stress and opportunity. Severe disruptions to essentials like food, water, or energy or a hiatus in societies ability to operate are vanishingly rare in the most complex parts of the world. Where disasters have occurred, such as major flooding or hurricanes in the US, the support from the wider system and their history with such events has helped the impacted region to stabilize and recover. The global financial crisis (which led to a mere 2% drop in global GDP) clearly had major impacts in the most developed countries, but only measured relative to peoples pre-crisis expectations it wasnt a catastrophe that would be recognized as such across history, and indeed by many of todays global poor.

Within this, the European Union has been the most integrationist corner of an integrating and complexifying world. The removal of barriers, the harmonization of standards, shared institutions, relatively predictable currency movements, shared cultures, and the general stability of the countries within the union helped create the conditions for the evolution of rich, time-sensitive connectivity, and its corresponding contribution to increased economic activity.

Brexit was supposed to be relatively simple. The failure to appreciate the potential for disruption arising from Brexit reflects societys habituation to system stability. When things work, we take it for granted. We notice the froth on the surface of life, not the ocean underneath. In addition, in much of the developed world years of affluence and relatively benign political environments have dulled our sensitivity to whats at stake should the pillars supporting critical societal operations suffer severe disruptions or even fail.

We are all, not just Brexiteers, complacent.

The complexity of modern society is such that if you take out one or two little pieces of the jigsaw, the whole thing collapses Lord Arbuthnot, former chair of the United Kingdom House of Commons Defense Committee, presently advisor to the Electric Infrastructure Security Council.

The changing nature of our global civilization is transforming societies vulnerability. The global integration of local systems of dependency mean that no family, critical infrastructure, city or nation can be truly resilient, as the conditions that sustain their organization are dispersed beyond their borders and controls. More complexity and interdependence between the parts of the human system means that there are many more paths through which disruptions can interact and amplify. It also means that a failure of critical parts of societal systems can cause the collective failure of large-scale system integration, which may be irreversible. While the growing efficiency and speed of systems and processes means shocks can transmit and interact faster and more non-linearly. As it stabilized and volatility was suppressed, the bounds resilience could decline (e.g. the temporal resilience to supply-chain disruption), increasing the vulnerability if the intensity, frequency and duration of shocks and stresses were to increase significantly. Societal cooperation, from the local to global, has been enabled in part by expectations contained within the assumption of continued economic growth, if those expectations become strained, that cooperation is more likely to fragment. We can get an insight into some of the relationships between societal complexity and vulnerability by considering some examples.

One wide-ranging example of non-linear amplification occurred in the UK. In 2000, a five-day blockade of fuel distribution centres began to cascade through a range of societal systems affecting the work of hospitals, the re-supply of supermarkets and businesses, the ability of people to get to work, the filling of cash machines andso on. Disruptions and failures generated new failures, they interacted, and the impact on society began to accelerate. Had it gone on just a few more days, large parts of the economy and society would have ceased to function. The protest highlighted the vulnerability of the whole of integrated societal systems if just the right part is impacted. The impacts were alarming enough that even the Canadian government commissioned a report on its impacts. Later a report by the think-tank Chatham HousesaidOne week seems to be the maximum tolerance of the just-in-time global economy before societies basic functionality begins to shut down. Since then, societal systems have become more complex, faster, more efficient and interdependent.

The above example highlights the critical role of fuel energy, next we turn to electricity. The major geomagnetic storm like the one that hit our planet in 1859 that became known as a Carrington event made little difference to everyday life. If it happenedtoday, because of our electricity dependence, it would be devastating, destroying electric transformers and many other systems. Without power for a prolonged period, clean water stops flowing, sanitation backs up, food deliveries stop, freezers thaw, phones and internet go dead, petrol pumps cant operate, offices and factories are dark, the financial system ceases to function, goods and services do not flow, and the capacity to keep nuclear cores cool can be lost. Unprepared communities may look to their government for help but find only disorientation as governance depends upon the same systems integration, and the scale of the shock would overwhelm contingency capacities. The critically damaged part, the electric transformers, have such a low capacity supply-chain that replacing the damaged ones would take years assuming the manufacturing itself did not become impossible due to the direct and indirect impacts of the Carrington event. Even if there was resilient electricity infrastructure in some places, those societies would be still vulnerable to economic, financial, social, and supply-chain contagion originating from the directly impacted parts imperiling societal operations including the supposedly resilient grid, which would still be vulnerable due to its weakest links. Today concerns about a prolonged wide-area grid failure include a major cyber/ hybrid attack or high-altitude nuclear detonation.

The effort by major central banks and governments to save the financial system in 2008 was ultimately to avoid a breakdown in the ability to transact for trade. Had such atipping pointbeen passed, rapid contagion through global supply-chains could have undermined the ability to re-stabilize the financial system, further amplifying supply-chain contagion in a re-enforcing spiral. Had such run-away conditions occurred, the ability to sustain any critical infrastructures services would soon been called into doubt. As Damian McBride, the UK Prime Minister Gordon Browns advisor makesclear, there was always uncertainty as to whether the effort to save the financial system would be successful.

An event similar to the 1918 influenza pandemic would have a far greater impact today due to the potential for non-linear amplification through societal systems. We are much better at outbreak monitoring, vaccine development and response at a certain scale, however the potential for animal-to-human transmission, global transport networks and the relentless adaptation of viral life mean the potential for a major global pandemic is growing.

Any natural disaster or war affecting a country on the other side of the planet can spread shocks and even global systemic de-stabilization, especially if the impacted region is both big enough, and plays a central role through its position within the global system.

What can be noticed through these examples is that, because critical systems are interdependent, any shock, or combination of them, if it hits the right part and is of sufficient scale, can cause the same broad outcome- a systemic collapse in societal complexity. It would be felt as a shut-down in the flow of goods and services, or a sudden fall in a societys capacity to use energy. This may or may not be recoverable. Because diverse hazards have broadly the same outcome, if you prepare for the impact of one, you are prepared for the impact of all.

The economic models used to estimate the impact of Brexit are blind to the dynamics of large-scale societal contagion processes. The yardstick through which impacts are measured, the monetary cost, do not see the loss of distinct and particular inputs into societal processes and connections through society, nor how those disruptions can interact with each other to generate new disruptions. Nor do they measure the cost of a rupture in the social contract, what that means for wellbeing, and the implications for how the UK faces the next crisis. This is not to say that Brexit will cause deep de-stabilization, the contingency planning has likely prevented this, only that the bigger the shock the more economic models will fail to represent systemic vulnerabilities.

The structure of our dependencies is making us more vulnerable, but this is only half the story.

Risks can crystallize with disorientating speed. In a world of complex and interconnected systems [they can] lead to sudden and dramatic breakdowns. If we exhaust our capacities to absorb disruption and allow our systems to become brittle enough to break, it is difficult to overstate the damage that might result.The Global Risks Report, World Economic Forum, 2018

The causal forces behind Brexit are complex, emergent and must remain to some degree opaque. However, the visibility and the hostile and politicalized deployment of refugees arriving into Europe in the years just prior to the vote, compounded the persistent effects of the 2008 global financial crises and responses to it. Together they likely contributed to the narrow victory of the leave side, a tipping point that would delineate two very different paths that would have implications far beyond the UK. The refugees escaped a tragedy in Syria that was influenced by internal shifts (demographic changes, economic challenges forced by peaking domestic oil production, impacts made more likely by climate change), and international forces (social contagion as part of the Arab Spring , volatile global food prices influenced by climate change and oil prices, and side-effects of US quantitative easing instituted response to the financial crisis).

This sketch gives a glimpse of an emerging reality where diverse stresses and shocks transmit and interact across the globe, generating new sources of disturbance, and where stressed societies can lose resilience, becoming more vulnerable to the next crisis. The focus on facets of this predicament obscures the reality that it is their convergence that matters.

This reflects that we have entered a period where there is a growing potential for oil, food, and water constraints and disruptions, in addition to the rising impacts from climate change and the feedback from the multi-dimensional effects our species is having upon our civilizations ecological niche. Within the human system the potential for a severe financial and economic crisis grows as indebtedness continues to escalate, productivity and our ability to innovate around problems are experiencing declining marginal returns, while tensions within and between nations grows. Any one of these is critical for the maintenance and stability of global systems integration, yet we are seeing intensifying stresses on all fronts.

In broad terms, these stressors can have non-linear large-scale impacts, they can act to constrain economic growth, increase the likelihood of economic recessions and depressions, raise the social and economic cost of maintaining existing systems and societal expectations, and increase the likelihood, duration and intensity of shocks. Shocks here could include supply and demand shocks, physical damage to society and infrastructures, supply-chain contagion, financial crises and contagion, social unrest, political revolutions, state capture, refugees, and war.

Increasingly stressed systems are more likely to experience multiple shocks at the same time or in quick succession. The impacts too, become non-linear. Losing a thousand pounds means different things depending on whether its your first, or last. Even more so if your rent is late and eviction beckons, a family member is sick and needs medicine, and those who once might have supported you, be it friends or state, are themselves overwhelmed. Similar scenarios could be drawn for any scale of societal systems. Repeatedly stressed systems can lose their internal resilience, as can external support (governments, IMF, European Stability Mechanism, Red Cross etc). Non-linearities can turn into tipping points as industries or infrastructures fail, wars start, states fail, and global contagion processes are initiated.

The potential risk for amplification is enormous due to the scale of latent risk mentioned in section two. Complex, delocalized societal systems, adaptive to system stability with correspondingly low resilience, are vulnerable to the weakest link and can create the conditions for rapid and diverse contagion and compounding. In such an environment, intrinsic uncertainty grows, the future becomes more dangerous, and systemic stability can begin to unravel.

As the need to build resilience into existing systems becomes more apparent, our capacity to invest -in inventories, flood defenses, and critical infrastructure back-ups is more difficult, as incomes fall, affordable financing becomes scarce or non-existent, and the ability to produce and access constituent materials becomes uncertain. Further, in an increasingly stressed and volatile environment, the necessity of maintaining existing systems and expectations is more likely to take precedence over investments in future resilience. For example, our food systems are very vulnerable, but making them more resilient at scale would raise food prices. Yet if food prices are already high due to production/ distribution constraints, and if incomes are falling and governments intervention capacity is already strained, adding further to food prices risks potentially intensifying present crisis (food prices having highly non-linear societal impacts), to marginally ameliorate a future crisis. In such contexts, people tend to become even more present focused. This is a feature of civilizational lock-in, we become trapped within increasingly dangerous systems of dependency as our adaptive capacity becomes further undermined.

The process of escalating global stress and shocks raises the likelihood of catastrophic system failure (outlined in section three). It may be due to a shock or combination of events that once could have been handled with ease, but now tips a weakened and degraded system into a breakdown. More specific examples include: constraints on growth, rising volatility, and the perception that this will intensify into the future increase the likelihood of a complete failure of an already seriously over-extended financial system; social fracturing can intensify as societys expectations can no longer be met, leading to societal breakdown; while rising international tensions raise the risks of war involving critically connected countries that could initiate a cycle of global de-stabilization; meanwhile the threats of a severe natural disaster still remain, and that of a catastrophic pandemic grows.

If much here does not reflect a dominant consensus, mostly its not for subtle or technical reasons. Economic models are creatures of historic macro-stability, and do not see the complexity that manifests vulnerability when shocks are large enough. Scientific bodies (the IPCC, the IMF, for example) look at stressors in semi-isolation not their interactive, non-linear and accumulating effects through integrated global systems. Such conditions can also make decision-making based on cost-benefit analysis close to meaningless. In addition, some stressors are given a prominence, while others are ignored or mis-understood. It is reasonable to conclude, therefore, that we are underestimating both the likelihood and impacts of emerging systemic risks, even if there might be disagreement on the details.

In many complex systems rising systemic volatility, and a slowing recovery from smaller shocks (because internal and external resilience is being compromised) are indicators of approaching tipping points when integration at whatever scale can no longer be maintained. Timing such tipping points is inherently difficult, but this is no reason for complacency, for as we have seen, the structure of our human system means destabilization can emerge rapidly. But by being attentive to such early-warning signals, we should find some motivation to engage in preparedness.

As the global economy enters a global slowdown, it is expected that new monetary and fiscal mechanisms will be used to boost demand in the real economy. There is an assumption that this will involve investment in green infrastructure. However, green investment does not necessarily increase resilience, and it may even reduce it. As such monetary and fiscal policy is likely to be time limited and cannot forestall growing systemic risks for long, it makes sense that that funding is prioritized on resilience. This includes investment inextant critical infrastructure resilience(e.g. the ability to sustain urban water and sanitation in a crisis), andbasic societal resilience supporting the basic welfare of societies if extant critical infrastructures were to fail. In other words, we need to prioritize while we still have the adaptive capacity.

Mr Scoresby (An aviator):

You speak of destiny as if it were fixed. And I aint sure I like it any more than the war Im enlisted in without even knowing it. Wheres my free will if you please? And this child seems to me to have more free will than anyone Ive ever met. Are you telling me shes just some clockwork toy wound up and set going on a course she cant change?

Serafina Pekkala (A witch):

We are all subject to the fates. But we must act as if we are not, or die of despair.-His Dark Materials, Philip Pullman

The systems that sustain us, are undermining those same systems. Consequently, we are most likely locked-into a process of accelerating destabilization that we can do little to avoid.

Two broad and inter-related Large-Scale Systemic Risks have been sketched above a) an Axial Stress period of deepening socio-economic stress, growing shocks and uncertainty through which no government, no matter how wise, strong, and compassionate they are can sustain societal expectations, and b) Systemic Failure, where interdependent societal systems fail collectively, this may be reversible, or not. Both we have argued have a growing likelihood, the impacts would be prolonged and severe to catastrophic. One may think other, kinder futures are more likely, however, prudence should make us mindful of the downside risks, thats why we buy fire insurance.

One response is to attempt radical surgery or deep systems change upon our societies. But as Brexit has showed, bold visions unmoored from the complexities of societal operations risk undermining those visions as radical interventions in one part can cause rapid and unintentional shocks that can cascade and feed-back through the wider systems. One can never know for certain where tipping points are, that once crossed, can initiate such a destabilizing process. This vulnerability to major intervention can be expected to increase as environmental, economic, and social stresses mount. Whether it is political or economic revolutions, rapid and deep de-carbonization, or radically transforming critical societal systems we cannot know in detail the impacts on the foundations of societal welfare, and even the best of intentions can initiate disaster. If that happens, we may lose the tools and adaptive capacity that we expected to complete the vision, while existential concerns drive a wholly different dynamic. And as disaster may indeed be coming, irrespective of such actions, it is probably more effective, urgent and pro-social to work on preparing for the impacts now.

As people and institutions rarely acknowledge a warning that challenges established worldviews and analytic traditions, personal and institutional sunk costs, and cherished expectations, one can only expect a limited engagement from society. Yet it is also the most significant and worthwhile challenge that has been offered in many generations. That is, to build the social capital and preparedness capacities to face unprecedented challenges in the years ahead. This cannot be achieved by international institutions or governments alone, but it will require effort and imagination through all levels of society.

It has been a disorientating and depressing experience for many to experience the rise in anger and polarization of recent years. But the reality of our lives, irrespective of wealth or position, is that we are thoroughly interdependent with each other, the socio-economic networks that bind us, and the planet and its living system that holds us all. When we tear at the fabric of our relationships, we undermine the welfare of all, and our capacities to face the dire challenges ahead.

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Brexit: Systemic Risk and a Warning - Resilience

The Return to Power of Local Hotel Brands? | By Robert Govers – Hospitality Net

With the dramatic collapse of Thomas Cook it seems that the era of the neo-colonial tourism system, in which the travel trade pulled the strings, is finally coming to an end. For one and a half centuries, since Thomas Cook started the tour operating business around 1850, international travel and hence the hotel industry depended, to a large extent, on wholesalers and retailers. Assisted by the industrial revolution and rapidly expanding transport systems, international travel exploded and travellers relied on travel agents and tour operators to book their trips. Horizontal and vertical integration resulted in travel trade managed hotels and global brands. Prior to this, of course, lodgings were always local; the town-inn being the pre-modern boutique hotel. Now we call them post-modern and I think they might be returning to power.

From Trading to Brokering

Throwback: travel and tourism in the twentieth century. It is not actually that long ago, yet hard to imagine for many, that international travel exploded at a time that consumers had no online booking platforms to compare offers or check reviews, no systems for email, messaging, chat or other fast ways to communicate and they could - literally - not afford to place international phone calls. The only way that hotels could stay in touch with their guests after they left was through snail mail; in the hope to build some loyalty. Some global hotel chains would install local call centres across the planet for loyal guests to book directly through a toll-free number, but that was the exception rat her than the rule.

It was, of course, the travel trade, with their network of offices and agencies, that functioned as an inescapable link between the hospitality industry at the destinations and the (potential) guests elsewhere. They were indeed "traders"; wholesalers and retailers buying airline seats and hotel beds in bulk to resell them to consumers - packaged or not. The travel trade also took care of hotel marketing, often in a highly standardised fashion to facilitate comparability and as a firewall against legal liability claims of misleading information. Hence, the star classification systems. The character of the hotel and the identity of the destination were virtually irrelevant.

Obviously, at the end of the twentieth century the internet turned everything on its head. Suddenly the hospitality industry had direct access to consumers worldwide and money was to be made cutting out the middle-men. Now we know that the cost of distribution is s till considerable either because of the cost of internal systems or the commissions on bookings through online platforms, but the marketing control is now firmly in the hands of hotels themselves. Distribution now works largely on an agency model where intermediaries take commissions on bookings, rather than ownership. This has changed and will continue to change the face of the hospitality industry, particularly for holiday resorts and global brands.

The Colonies

The travel trade in the outdated tourism system obviously resulted in tremendous commodification; particularly in the leisure travel segment. A standardised product for a mass market. Sea, sand and sun, wherever it shines, largely inconsiderate towards local customs, culture or traditions; or offering clich simulacra thereof as night-time entertainment as part of the "guest animation programme". The idea was that "civilised" travellers could enjoy themselves according to their own elevat ed customs (even if that involved excessive alcohol consumption and culinary annexation with English breakfast, hamburgers and French fries) with disregard for the local host community in the destination. Resort hotels - particularly around the Mediterranean, but also in the Caribbean or elsewhere - effectively became "Western" colonies.

Demand for such "tourist reserves" will always be there, but the dwindling role of the travel trade and the ability and demand of consumers to book online will force these players to reconsider their positioning. Unprotected by opaque distribution, they will become increasingly exposed to competition and therefore need to consider their competitive advantage. Just offering all-inclusives on a beach will not be enough. Combine that with tourists' expanding travel experience and expectations, the increasing pressure on resorts to question their local socio-economic role in the host community, and a growing complexity of the global market for travel and tourism, it seems likely that this part of the hospitality industry will continue to change.

And Global Brands

As travelers - in the old tourism system - were in the dark, travel and tourism businesses created global brands for them to put their faith in. Global travel trade brands, airline brands, hospitality brands. All of that made complete sense as ways to build reliability, trustworthiness and consistency in an opaque market. Even attractions have become global brands (Disney, Madame Tussauds, Guggenheim, The Dungeons). All global brands dominating destination brands.

But in today's transparent market in which the segment of experienced travellers is rapidly growing, is brand loyalty under pressure? With online search and full market access, is brand recognition still crucial? With online reviews, is predictable standardisation still relevant? If travellers from wherever, going wherever, can search for the property that best serves their requirements and they can trust the reliability of the offering based on the reviews of peers, do they still require the reassurance of a global brand or will the attractiveness of a unique local experience, as opposed to a homogenised offering, outweigh the somewhat increased unpredictability?

To Imaginative Communities

With the declining need for distribution-controlled resorts and global brands, two counter movements play into the hands of lobal hotel brands. First, destination management organisations, policy makers and stakeholders are increasingly asking themselves the question: "what type of destination do we want to be and what sort of travel and tourism do we want to attract". They are looking for sense of place, purpose and distinctiveness, as a reaction to the threat of globalised homogenisation, commodification and - as a result - overexploitation. Destinations need to stand out, be in control and build a re levant and memorable reputation based on identity, originality and sustainability. I call them Imaginative Communities. Second, more and more travellers are looking for authentic local experiences. This can be gauged from the success of AirBnB, design hotels and unusual lodgings. With local host communities as well as guests looking for distinctiveness, it seems that the hospitality industry will continue to be pushed towards change.

One such development seems to be the inevitable return to power of local hotel brands. They understand the local community; can build authentic local experiences and support and enhance imaginative local reputation and marketing strategies. That doesn't mean, of course, that these local hotels can't be part of a larger chain. Yet, it seems that for reasons of experience enhancement, it appears to be more logical to apply a house of brands strategy than a branded house strategy. In addition, obviously, labels and collectives such as Leading Hotels of the World, Relais & Chteaux or Historic Hotels of Europe might become more important as market signals based on character as opposed to brand. Because, indeed, character, distinctiveness and authenticity will be the drivers for the future, not predictability.

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The Return to Power of Local Hotel Brands? | By Robert Govers - Hospitality Net

Ghanaians could well face the wrath of God should they betray the Free SHS provider! – Modern Ghana

Some of us were not in the least astounded when the vast majority of the NDC Delegates overwhelmingly threw their support behind Ex-President John Dramani Mahama during the NDCs 2019 flagbearership race.

Critical observers cannot also stand accused of harbouring risible and inborn proclivity towards the former president for suggesting somewhat passionately that there are not many true nationalists who will gleefully shrill and thrill over the return of Ex-President Mahama given his calamitous errors in judgement which culminated in huge economic collapse.

And more so it is not farfetched for one to suggest that it is only the diehard supporters, many of whom probably laid hands on big chunks of the national cake, shared unequally by the former president, will clamour for the return of their Messiah.

Truth must however be told, the Mahamas praise singing bandwagon never experienced the harsh socio-economic standards of living their redeemer Mahama wilfully brought upon the nation. So, what do you expect? They will definitely clamour for the return of the spoon that over fed them.

If you may recall, during the NDCs 2019 flagbearership contest, the other potential presidential aspirants emitted vehemently and inexorably that former President Mahama was the main reason why NDC lost the 2016 election.

Unsurprisingly, however, the multitude of concerned supporters within the NDC were in solidarity with the then aspiring flagbearers.

The aggrieved supporters uncompromisingly ventilated their illimitable indignations over the comeback of former President Mahama.

Bizarrely, while the sceptics were insisting that Mahama was not up to the task during his tenure in office and must therefore be replaced with a much more capable flagbearer, the Mahama loyalists were moving heaven and earth to have him back as the partys next presidential candidate.

To be quite honest, some of us are struggling to get our heads around how and why anyone with reflective thinking prowess could aim accusing fingers at the critics for insisting that Mahama kept his eyes off the prize and therefore does not warrant another chance at the presidency.

In as much as former President Mahama commands some respect among the NDC foot soldiers and a section of ordinary Ghanaians, the sceptics could not be far from right for being doubtful over Mahamas 2020 electoral chances.

Given the circumstances, it came as no surprise to some of us at all when a group of organisers within the opposition NDC beseeched the National Executives of the party to allow Mr Alban Kingsford Sumana Bagbin to go unopposed in the partys 2019 flagbearership contest (See: Alban Bagbin must go unopposed NDC organisers; ghananewsagency.org/ghanaweb.com, 12/03/2018).

So many people in the party feel Hon. Bagbin is the best person to lead us into 2020 and the reasons are pretty clear: he is the exact contrast to former President John Mahama in the matter of marketability and yet retains the Northern extraction that will satisfy the need to have a Northerner complete an eight-year mandate.

Back then, the spokesperson for the group insisted passionately that since corruption would be a key campaign theme in 2020, and the fact that former President Mahama administration had issues with corruption, Ghanaian voters would be forced to reject him if he was to be elected as the next flagbearer.

In fact, it is not only the aggrieved NDC organisers who have been expressing concerns about the corruption in the erstwhile Mahama administration.

Somewhere last year, the NDC founder and the former president of Ghana, J. J. Rawlings, audaciously came out and disclosed that the corruption in the Mahama administration was so pervasive to the extent that a former NDC minister licentiously bought two luxurious mansions worth at a staggering $3 million from an estate agent in Accra shortly after the Mahamas government exited power (see: NDC minister grabs two mansions; dailyguidenetwork.com, 12/06/2018).

And more so prior to the NDCs 2019 flagbearership contest, the Honourable Bagbin, the MP for Nadoli Kaleo and a contestant of the NDCs presidential race, attributed the humiliating defeat of Mahama and the National Democratic Congress (NDC) in the 2016 general elections to bad governance (See: Mahama's boys bought V8, built mansions in 4 years Bagbin; myjoyonline.com/ghanaweb.com, 19/08/2018).

Mr Bagbin was reported to have quizzed somewhat dejectedly: Dont tell me that the boys that suddenly came closer to the president within four years can build mansions and buy land cruisers and you say there are no resources, where are they getting the money, their salaries?

The crucial question then is: is former President Mahama the only capable leader in the NDC?

In fact, some of us will not be surprised a bit if the teeming supporters of the other potential presidential aspirants revolt againstMahama during the 2020 general elections.

To be quite honest, some of us are struggling to comprehend how and why any real patriot would seek the return of someone who disastrously collapsed the countrys economy to the detriment of the poor and the disadvantaged Ghanaians.

So the Mahama loyalists would want us into believing that every single Ghanaian was oblivious to the happenings in the country prior to the 2016 general elections?

The fact of the matter is that the diehard NDC supporters were living in a denial about the harsh economic conditions prior to the 2016 general elections.

Back then, the vast majority of Ghanaians struggled to make a living or eke out an income. The dreadful errors in decision-making, the incompetence and the unbridled corruption culminated in untold economic hardships.

In fact, one cannot help but to agree with those who insist that former President Mahama lacks effective leadership skills.

The sceptics however argue that it was due to former President Mahamas poor leadership qualities that a GH9.5 billion debt in 2009 rocketed to an incredible GH122.4 billion in just eight years.

Besides, the critics have been maintaining that former President Mahamas dreadful errors in decision-making accounted for Ghanas economic downslide.

Take, for example, Ghanas GDP shrunk from $47 billion to $40 billion in just five years.

Somehow, Ex-President Mahamas decision-making came under sharp scrutiny when he abysmally dragged an economic growth of around 14% in 2011 to a nauseating 3.4% as of December 2016.

It is also true that the NDC administration moved a gallon of petrol from GH3.69 in 2009 (Ghanabusinessnews.com/energypedia.info, 06/01/2009) to around GH18.00 in January 2017(See: Fuel prices increase by about 11%; cityfmonline.com/ghanaweb.com, 05/01/2017).

If you may recollect, former President Kufuor left the currency exchange rate at around GH1.20 to 1 U.S Dollar in 2009 and the NDC administration dragged it to GH4.20 to 1 U.S Dollar by December 2016.

If anything at all, the good people of Ghana cannot so soon forget and forgive former President Mahama for the business crippling dumsor in the last five years of the erstwhile NDC administration.

In his desperation to solve the problem, Mahama administration ambivalently sign a superfluous Take or Pay Power Purchasing Agreements (PPAs) in which Ghana is needlessly paying over $600 million per year for extra power we do not need.

By woefully signing the excessive Power Purchasing Agreements and entering into Take or Pay deal, Ghanaian consumers are unfairly being forced to pay exorbitant electricity tariffs as a result of the Mahama governments negligence.

By and large, the critics insist that former President Mahamas government remains the worst ever in the history of Ghanaian politics.

In spite of all these, the loyalists of former President Mahama are ridiculously holding on to a phantom hope that they could bring Ex-President Mahama to recapture power in 2020.

Even though some of us are not in a position to offer any advice to Mahama and his teeming supporters, judging from the harsh economic conditions Ghanaians experienced during Mahamas coarse administration, it will take a miracle for discerning Ghanaians to easily forgive and vote Ex-President Mahama in 2020.

Given the unpardonable economic mess amid unmanageable high debt stock left by the erstwhile Mahama administration, it is extremely admirable for the Akufo-Addos government to seek to distribute the national resources equitably through the implementation of the costly poverty alleviation Free SHS.

In the grand scheme of things, Ghanaian parents are in a better position today than yesteryears, in the sense that the Free SHS is paving way for more than 500,000 children a year, including the over 190,000 children who otherwise would not have the opportunity to enter senior high school.

The good news however is that parents who have three children in SHS will be pocketing not less than GH16598.49 over three years.

So, we (me and my household) cannot turn around and blame God if we knowingly ditch the poverty alleviation Free SHS for something else.

K. Badu, UK.

[emailprotected]

Disclaimer:"The views/contents expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author(s) and do not neccessarily reflect those of Modern Ghana. Modern Ghana will not be responsible or liable for any inaccurate or incorrect statements contained in this article."

Reproduction is authorised provided the author's permission is granted.

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Ghanaians could well face the wrath of God should they betray the Free SHS provider! - Modern Ghana

ET CEO Roundtable: Build a wealthier nation with state help, industry execution – Economic Times

The recent reduction in the corporate tax rate has improved the mood of India Inc, but panelists at the ET CEO Roundtable on Tackling the slowdown: What government and companies can do felt more was needed as they called on the government to speed up decisionmaking, address regulatory overreach and resolve the credit flow gridlock to spur investments and attract companies moving out of China.

Will the big-bang tax cuts announced last week actually help in reviving capex and will this slowdown actually transfor into some kind of higher growth?Nitin Gadkari: Today, economy is the most important subject for the government. But everywhere in the world, there are problems in the economy because of the business cycle, sometimes because of demand and supply and sometimes because of the global economy, as it is related to exports and imports. Currently our government is very friendly to investment and we want to encourage more investment, more foreign investment in the country. But after GST, we still need to support industry more. As far as my sector is concerned, in infrastructure, we need more cooperation from financial institutions. Because the loan is sanctioned but disbursement is not there. When the first instalment of investment is there, the second is delayed non-banking finance institutions are not in a good position. One of the reasons why we are facing a (difficult) situation in the automobile sector. A majority of road projects are sanctioned by NBFCs, not by banks. When I took charge as minister, there were several stalled projects; the amount involved was Rs 3,85,000 crore. But we resolved 95% of the problems. And today, we have decided that without 80% of land acquisition, without forest and environment clearance, we will not give an appointment date. So now, the projects are ready, viability is good, traffic density is good but we are not getting good responses. Cyril Shroff, Nandan Nilekani, Kalpana Morparia, Nitin Gadkari

We have three models PPP, BOT and hybrid annuity. But now we have just taken a decision and we are going for tender for BOT also; regarding monetisation, we are getting a good response from foreign investors. One of our bundles was oversubscribed and currently, the bank is ready to finance NHAI. I prepared one model and I have been asking them for 30 years but they say no, we will give up to 20 years. Considering the land acquisition cost and other costs, we will return their money on the basis of the toll within 12 to 15 years. So, on a project-to-project basis, State Bank sanctioned that we will give finance of Rs 50,000 crore and when you need more, we are ready. Then, another bank chairman also approached me and they are also ready. So, they are ready to finance NHAI. But for financing for contractors, there is a problem. Even the people who take BOT models, renowned companies with good reputations, even they find it difficult to reach financial closure. So, in this situation, what we need is more aggressive, positive cooperation from financial institutions. At present, on the basis of IRR, I am not demanding that they should finance non-viable projects.

Why do you think banks are not lending, as a lot of the banks are actually owned by you, the government, and you, of course, can push them to lend?Gadkari: Youve asked the a correct question to the wrong person.

The tax cuts have happened, the markets have risen. What is the message that you want to send? Gadkari: Everywhere, either it is business, politics or even in any career you take it, kabhi acche din nahi hota hai. There are challenges. There are problems and there are some people who convert problems into opportunities and there are some people who convert opportunities into problem. We need to improve the morale of financial institutions. Banking is a business. If, suppose, someone defaults, then we should not make him responsible for that. It is a business and in business 100% of the businesses will not succeed, that wont be the case. There is a risk. And after considering this risk, banks are still making good profits. So, if there is a problem, we have to support them. And for that reason, this is the time for government to see how we can improve morale, particularly of people who are related to banks. Investigations are going on. But you have to find out whether the mistakes are bona fide or mala fide. If the mistakes are mala fide, 100% we have to take action. But because of the business cycle, because of the global economy, because of demand and supply, if the account is NPA, we should not make him (banks) responsible for that.

What do you think the government can do to lift the morale of bankers and make them feel that they will not be targeted?Gadkari: The finance ministry has taken some decisions, we should give them time to rectify bona fide mistakes. But if the mistakes are mala fide, with bad intensions, we need to take stern action against them. Between the lines, we have to find a way out.

But there is some genuine fear among a lot of industrialists that the investigative agencies are probably going a little too far.Gadkari: Actually, your all questions are very appropriate but I am not the finance minister of the country.

Sunil Mittal, founder and chairman of Bharti Enterprises Tax cuts, it is generally believed, will lift investment and capex. What do you think will be the implications, the reasonable expectation that one can have from this move?Sunil Mittal: I think, clearly we are coming into this panel on the back of major announcements last week, tax cuts which have been very well celebrated. What you have to really see is that nations become richer, wealthier through a combination of state enablement and industry execution. There are times when one lags behind and there are periods of time when both could be limited by their own ambitions and there are great opportunities when both are aligned, and we have seen those spurts and ebbs and flows in the last 15-20 years. I think the minister rightly pointed out that challenges will always be there. Today, India is not just facing its own consumption challenges. There are global headwinds, whether you look at Europe, whether you look at other countries, there is a general sense of economic slowdown and India, therefore, cannot be completely decoupled from that.

Within India, my own view is in the last three to four years, execution has been weak, there has been a general sense of low spending; many projects have been hanging in between. The minister rightly pointed out that morale in the lending institutions has been low for a variety of reasons, some of them we already know and that needs to kickstart. So, I think the government has picked up that the enablement will be the first cause of action to be done for the execution to start. And from their point of view, the announcement by the finance minister of deep cuts. In fact, the industry was taken by a great deal of surprise on the pleasant side.

There are a few other things that need to be done, in my view. India is passing through a great deal of reset, whether it is the GST, whether it is going into digital mode of payment and currency, and at the same time, the economy has slowed down. So obviously, the issues are much bigger. Therefore, I would request the government to become the big enabler in the next 12, 18, 24 months and save some of the treasures of the country, national assets of the country. When Jet Airways goes out of business, it is not just one company going out of business, it is a vital national aviation infrastructure that has disappeared overnight. Seven or eight telecom companies have completely gone out of business. I think the government, as it is resetting the economy through new ways of business, needs to bring out a mechanism in which IBC, for example, which has been put into play, needs to be accelerated.

Wherever promoters, owners, shareholders cannot support their companies which are national treasures, they should be quickly replaced with somebody else, so that the national treasures can carry on contributing to the national economic momentum. So right now, I think the job of the government is to enable as much as they can, whether you call it ease of doing business, or opening the taps of the banks.

The minister spoke about logistic support, lowering of power cost, lowering of cost of capital, all these things are necessary. I think India remains a huge market without a doubt with great promise. It is a continent of consumers. Entrepreneurs in India there are so many entrepreneurs who one can see are doing extremely well are absolutely raring to go.Nandan Nilekani Non-Executive Chairman, Infosys

The tax cuts have come at a time of big resets. Is it enough to lift us out of the slowdown?Nandan Nilekani: I think certainly it will have a very positive impact in getting companies to invest, but I really think that the strategic thing is to revive credit to the economy, especially to small businesses.

Today, only 8% of Indian small businesses get credit from the banking system and because of a combination of factors, including the public sector banks having high NPAs, the NBFCs having an asset liability mismatch, the whole thing is gridlocked. We are very lucky because I think if we are going to start a new cycle of credit we should do it very differently because of three developments: the first is, we now have entirely digital transactions possible for credit. We can dramatically expand the cycle of giving credit.

Second, over the last five years, we have dramatically seen that new business databases are available. GST has 11 million businesses with invoice details, the income-tax system has all income tax payments, the MCA has got all your corporate details, banks have bank statements, so suddenly we have this massive amount of data. So tomorrows credit will be data-based, it would not be randomly decided.

The third thing is what you do with fraud over invoicing, under invoicing, round tripping, shell companies There are about 10 or 12 ways that fraud is happening and that is all those can be caught in near real time with AI. The combination of digital credit using the new databases and AI for fraud will create a whole new architecture for credit where we can increase credit without creating tomorrows NPAs. And, because the credit decisions are traceable, all these worries of bank managers will go away because all will be based on facts. You have to rethink our whole approach to credit in the new world.Kalpana Morparia CEO, South & South East Asia, JP Morgan

A lot of talk about slowdown in credit to industry, especially to MSMEs. Given all that is happening in the financial services sector, how sound is our Indian financial system?Kalpana Morparia: So, in terms of capital levels, other than some state-owned banks, I think the private sector banks are extremely well capitalised. They still have just about 25% market share. They have the capital, they have the liquidity and they certainly have the managerial capabilities...I completely support the point made by Nandan, that in this new digital world, you will actually see a paradigm shift in terms of the way banks function.

Do you think we are over with the NBFC crisis? Morparia: We all love to talk about the NBFC crisis as being the single ill that has slowed down the economy. Let us just look at some facts. NBFCs today contribute 20% to the overall credit book in India, 16% is actually held by AAA-rated companies like RFC, REC, PFC, HDFC, LIC Housing. So, they are really talking about a 4% that could be under some ALM mismatch, could face some liquidity issues, one or two might eventually face solvency issues. But I just believe that given the architecture that we have, particularly amongst State Bank of India, a few other state-owned banks and certainly the private banks, I do not believe that this is really the villain in the piece that it has been made out to be.

The minister talked about inviting foreign direct investment (FDI) and we just had this big tax change last week. How are foreign companies reaction to that?David Sproul: Having a competitive tax rate is foundational in terms of encouraging business investment both FDI and local business investments. It also sends a signal that the government has listened to the feedback from business in terms of one of those changes. FDIs (foreign direct investors) are looking for very competitive tax rates, but they also want to see the government continuing to support investors, those who are creating jobs etc. And therefore, to me the tax cuts send a very, very strong signal. And certainly the initial feedback we have had has been very positive from business in terms of encouraging investment into the market which is already very attractive for them.

Do you think the shift that everybody is talking about factories moving out of China or moving to Southeast Asia is possible?Sproul: A lot will depend on other policies put in place to attract that sort of investment. Much of the narrative has been about factories moving from China to Vietnam or rather to Southeast Asia. There is no reason at all that it should not be in India, provided there is a confidence and a certainty that beyond competitive taxes and the right infrastructure, there is certainty that policies are going to be maintained. India has many advantages in terms of FDI with not just its local market but also a very highly qualified workforce and very obvious skills in technology.Uday Shankar, Chairman, Star & Disney India

Given all of that, what is really happening to consumer demand?Uday Shankar: A lot of positive changes are already taking place. The speed at which India is transitioning to a digital behaviour whether it is in transactions payments, whether it is in content consumption, whether it is in other forms of digital behaviour, is truly happening at a breath-taking pace. So, while there are a lot of issues that need to be fixed, we should not downplay the achievements. There are lots of infrastructural issues, in physical and technological infrastructure, that need to be changed. Things change fast for the better when multiple agencies and institutions of the society work in tandem. Working in isolation sometimes tends to lead to a situation where you are also working at cross purposes.

An important point raised is that the consumption slowdown that we have seen is more due to a shift in consumer preferences Shankar: I would be wary of making some hasty conclusions in that regard. Just because for a few quarters or a year or two automobile offtake has gone down, we should not talk about a large social preferential shift. It is related to larger issues. When people want to buy a car or people want to upgrade to a better car it is because they are feeling good that tomorrow is better. If they are concerned that there are issues and their behaviour becomes more cautious and watchful, a lot of those decisions get pushed down to tomorrow.

Mittal: There will be fundamental shifts in consumption patterns going forward. We perhaps have not seen very much as yet, more is to come in the coming years and decades. The millennials consume in a very different way. I think industries will need to start to think about how world is going to move, whether it is food delivery or ride-hailing cabs or shared services, the whole process is going into a direction where industries will need to review their own needs. But it does not mean that the consumption of one kind of product will completely disappear. It will shift to different categories. I personally believe the way India is going, given the leaderships focus on digitisation, mean India may actually leapfrog into areas which perhaps you would have never envisaged before. So I would say to all my industry peers and friends, prepare for shifts, plan for those shifts, invest in those shifts.

So, is this consumption slowdown temporary?Mittal: A country of this size, 1.3 billion people, is a continent of consumers. Young people are coming into the mainstream where people are wanting more and more products, more and more services. We see it all the time. When telecom used to have 800 MB consumption a month, it is a 13 gigabyte a month. Its a 14 or 15 times jump within just three years and this may well settle for 25 gigabytes, which will be highest in the world. This is a country of mass consumption. Your price points have to be right, your product has to be right.

How much are we capturing this shift towards digital consumption in national data sets?Nilekani: There are different aspects. One, of course, is the telecom revolution, which has shown 400 million smart phones, the data consumption, so that is one story. The second is the rise of ecommerce. If you put all of them together, it may be $15-20 billion of ecommerce going up to $100 billion. Third is digital payments. Today, UPI does 900 million transactions a month from zero, so that is just in three years as well. Then, the whole thing which is happening with data empowerment with the RBI, the account aggregators framework which allows businesses to get their own data and give it for lending. Each of these is taking off at a speed that is exceptional.

So, it reduces costs because digital is less friction. Second, it improves access because anybody with a phone can buy it and third, it reduces the sachet size because you can now do small, so a combination of cost reduction, spread and sachet leads to dramatic explosion. We just want to make it happen in multiple sectors.Cyril Shroff, Managing Partner, Cyril Amarchand Mangaldas

You cannot talk about economic revival without having a proper bankruptcy process. What has been the experience of IBC in changing mindsets and in helping Indian industry regenerate and grow?Cyril Shroff: Certainly, the IBC has been a dramatic market changing development. It has changed credit culture significantly. The mindset of entrepreneurs and businesses in terms of their borrowing behaviour and evaluation has significantly changed. But if you put on the banker side for a second, and just picking up on what the minister said on why bankers are still not exuberant, the fact is that they still have not seen some big cases closed.

There are so many of them and they are Rs 40,000-50,000-crore recovery cases. So, until some of these big elephants land, I think the uncertainty will still remain and the question will remain. It has to be viewed in the context of a general conversation on corporate governance and the IBC has been a part of that conversation as well. When you are in the IBC situation, there is also almost a parallel conversation that takes place on what led to that insolvency, and that inevitably leads to a governance conversation on what failed. Very often, in nine out of 10 cases, you will probably see something which is murky in the behaviour that led up to this as well. I think India is not only in a reset stage but it is moving from a relationship-based culture to a rule-based culture and we are somewhere in the middle of that process.

IBC is one facet of it but it is to be seen in connection with everything that is happening including corporate governance, changing the rules, and some of the stuff that you mentioned as well in terms of greater enforcement. It is all happening together and that is why I think to some extent, corporate India is like a rabbit in the headlights at the moment.

IBC said that you got to do everything in 270-280-odd days. Now it has got extended to over 300 days. Why so much delay? Why is it that we do not have closure?Shroff: It is a combination of factors. Partly, the judiciary is to blame as well. I think we have still not come to exact terms on what is the role of natural justice and so on, the full impact of the rule of law system and how it should be viewed in the context of an economic legislation like the IBC. Which is why on any major case, the 270-day deadline has almost been absorbed and breached, and even 330 I think is going to be challenged. I do not see much hope over there. That is one of the main reasons why the bankers are bewildered as to when is this is going to end.

Mr Gadkari, on the issue of judiciary, one of the countrys most prominent lawyers Harish Salve said recently that the Supreme Court is to blame for the slowdown because of 2G, because of coal block cancellations. What do you think?Gadkari: We respect the Supreme Court but only in my department, I am facing a loss of more than `5,000 crore due to the courts. I am paying compensation to contractors. Now, in every case, everyone has the fundamental right to appeal, but time is the problem. I understand everyone has an important role, I respect the judiciary, I respect the system, but the problem is not taking decisions. Today, I have found a file that the finance ministry has already given my ministry permission to raise Rs 75,000 crore from the market. My ministry again sent it to the finance (ministry) that we are going to raise Rs Cyril Shroff, Nandan Nilekani, Kalpana Morparia, Nitin Gadkari 25000 crores, please give us permission. So I asked why are you giving this file to the finance ministry when it has already given permission? This over cautious and conservative attitude is a problem.

Is that because of the fear of the judiciary?Gadkari: I do not have any fear about the judiciary, I respect it. If anything wrong is found from our side, they have the right to take decisions but there has to be a time clause. Please dont waste time. Time is very important, whether it is judiciary or it is with the highest officer, whether with the system or with the politician. Whatever decision you want to take, you take it, but in a timely manner. This is more important than capital, resource and technology. I do not want to insult anybody, I respect judiciary.

Bankers are saying they do not want to fund infrastructure, they want to focus only on retail lending. Are they afraid?Morparia: I do not believe banks are afraid of funding infrastructure. I think the honourable minister made a great point that if a banker has made an error of judgement, and it is an honest error of judgement, if we hound him, the poor guys are going to live on his pension and now you are telling him you are going to be behind bars, obviously that is going to impair his ability to write big ticket cheques. So if we create an environment where we say everyone is presumed to be innocent until we actually have evidence of criminal act by them, I think that will go a long way in terms of bringing confidence.

The government has amended the Prevention of Corruption Act in order to set minds at ease, but has it worked?Morparia: Actually, if you see a loan of this size, there is no single individual who can take a decision, there are multiple committees within the bank, there is a separate risk department that assess the risk, there is a huge committee, there are board committees which also comprise independent directors that are looking at it. As Sunil said, we are going through a reset, we are wanting to grow but we have to significantly restructure a lot of our laws, processes etc so it is going to take time.

When you say everybody is responsible for the slowdown, what do you think individuals and companies can do to give the government a helping hand?Aga: I think everybody is responsible is the correct thing, but that is such a general statement, it does not say much. I think there has to be better trust and understanding between corporates and the government, and you cannot be suspicious of each one. It is not a good thing in the long run ever and I think if we use the talents and the suggestions of corporates and realise the power that the government has to do things, make things happen and they listen to each other, many things can happen. But unfortunately, there have been a few corporations which have not been fair, not followed governance but we cant paint every corporate with the same brush We must have rules and as Kalpana also said, not even allowing genuine mistakes to be made, then there will be fear and that is not a good way to grow the business.

Is the trust between governments and corporates better now, or is it worse?Mittal: I said it right in the beginning, it has got to be in tandem. Industry and government have to work together, we have a great opportunity in front of us. This is a once in a lifetime opportunity when China is in serious difficulty with world powers. We have never seen an opportunity like this in the last several decades. The world is slowing down. India is becoming attractive. Manufacturing at 15% tax rate becomes really attractive. People have gone to Vietnam and Cambodia in the past, not coming to India, all that can change now. India is welcoming FDI.

India is encouraging startup enterprises, the ingredients are there in place. All we need are a few more bold moves from the government in ease of doing business, taking this fear away as has been mentioned by the minister here, and the people will come and invest. There is so much opportunity out there and finally, I will again say there are national treasures which may get hurt in this reset. Government needs to come in very quickly to save them. I have 300 million customers. They consume content. Take the case of Zee, a very large cohort of 30 crore. I see it from my side, who owns it is a different matter but that is a national treasure, a media treasure.

Uday is here, he will know that, same for Jet Airways, same for many other companies. There are fantastic companies in infrastructure for example, which may just collapse if something is not done quickly. Government needs to move quickly to save these national treasures.

Do you think there is trust between the governments and corporates?Nilekani: I think the issue is, governments do not trust corporates because some corporates have not played by the rules, and bureaucrats do not take decisions because they are worried about the CVC, CAG and all the stuff. So, you have a credit gridlock and you have a decision gridlock, and I think unless you unlock both these things, you will continue to be in the same state.

But is that happening? How much progress do you think we have make?Nilekani: I think a lot more has to be done.

What are your views on ease of doing business?Shankar: Look, I think it is a little more nuanced, there are areas where the ease of doing business has improved a great deal, but there are agencies and there are organs where it needs to get a lot better. I think one big elephant in the room is the regulatory system. The entire regulatory universe needs to do all the right things, make sure that there is a level playing field and everybody plays by the rules. But those rules finally must have an end goal which is to offer better value for society and to make sure that business grows. I think the whole regulatory universe is something whose time has come for the government to revisit it fundamentally.

Shroff: I think the broad strokes of policy are in sort of decent shape but it is the last mile where there are a lot of problems. Let me give you just one example on infusing foreign capital in a listed company. We have this rule that the floor price has to be based on six months average. Now I personally know that there are several very large transactions which have been held up because that six months average price is unrealistic in such a volatile market. So, cant we look at that and make it a little bit more real? So the last mile, I think, is as important as the journey that preceded it, and there is a lot that has to be cleaned up.

What are your views on ease of doing business? How much has it really improved?Sproul: It has really improved. I have often looked at this just through the lens of the competitive index. When you look at the competitive index you can see how global economies compare and of course, India is sort of 42-43.

The really important thing is India has to work out where it wants to be competitive. You cant compare with the number one Singapore. I mean, Singapore has a population of less than 1% of India, which is not comparable. We have to look behind and say, where are the areas where India wants to be competitive. I think there are two things that come through: one of them is that there is a greater burden of regulatory, legal process to doing business in India than in some other economies. I think that is a very important point for businesses and government together to work through. And I think international businesses see that as a barrier which is very visible. Some of the other things are far more about just the sheer scale and socio-economic factors in India which are both an advantage and disadvantage. But I think the real question is focusing on where India wants to be competitive. One looks at those data sets, which give a lot of information but I do agree that one of the barriers is definitely the whole regulatory legal environment that creates perhaps unnecessary barriers.

See the rest here:

ET CEO Roundtable: Build a wealthier nation with state help, industry execution - Economic Times

Economic and Institutional Restructuring for the Next Nigeria – Soludo – Proshare Nigeria Limited

Tuesday, October 1, 2019 / 03:19PM / By ChukwumaCharles Soludo, CFR* / Header Image Credit: ThePlatform

Being the text of the prepared speech by Prof. Chukwuma Charles Soludo,CFR, former Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria; at The Platform Nigeria'sannual independence lecture themed "Redesigning the Nigerian Economy withNew Ideas"held at The Covenant Place, Beside the National Theatre, Iganmu;October 1, 2019.

I:Introduction/Disclaimer

HappyIndependence Day Celebration!!!

Manythanks to Pastor Poju and the organizers of The Platform for the invitation. Letus start with a disclaimer. We accepted the invitation on 17thMay, 2019 and hadwritten our remarks a few weeks back. When our membership of the EconomicAdvisory Council was announced on the 16thSeptember, we agonisedas to whether we should still honour the invitation or whether we should stillpresent the paper. Finally, we decided to be here but have removed several ofthe pages that contain issues we believe should be on the agenda of theCouncil--- we do not want to pre-empt the work of the Council. Morespecifically, we do not focus on the macroeconomic, sectoral, and structuralpolicies, programmes and projects needed at the moment.

We focuson the future, andconcentrate narrowly on the type of meta-level,political-legal-governance foundation upon which the future can sustainablystand.Our thesis is that if you want to change a persistingeconomic structure, change the underling institutions (we can write a fat bookon this: our experience with the NEEDS vis-a-vis banking recapitalization/consolidationwas one case study that showed that to translate the hitherto slogan of privatesector-led economy into reality needed a different banking/financialinstitution...). For the national economy, it will be difficult to have acompetitive and prosperous post-oil economy of the future (with additionalhundreds of millions of citizens and dwindling land space) with the same legaland institutional foundation designed for consumption of oil rent. You can'tbuild a 100 storey-building upon a foundation of an old bungalow. A post oileconomy requires that all agents maximize their fullest potentials, and what isrequired will be a national rather than a federal response. You can't clap withone hand. Once the focus is wealth creation rather than sharing and consumptionof oil rents, we need a new national business model. Unfortunately, the linkbetween law- Constitution- institutions- Judiciary, etc and economictransformation seems to be the weakest link in our design of national agenda.In the future, hopefully the National Assembly, Ministry of Justice, the statesand other stakeholders might take up the assignment...

II:Context

We havenot come to read the Book of Lamentations about Nigeria's woes, nor to sing thesongs of David. We see the half-empty glass, but we prefer to focus on thehalf-full glass. We want to focus on the future-rather than the past or thepresent. As mentioned above, we are asked to speak on "The EconomicRestructuring of Nigeria"-an omnibus topic indeed! Since the First NationalDevelopment Plan (1962- 68), transformation of the economicstructure/diversification has been the fulcrum of all national plans. Fordecades, every government has tried its brand of 'economic restructuring' oreconomic diversification and yet the economy remains tied to the life-supportof oil, peasant agriculture and largely informal services sector. Incomeinequality, poverty, and unemployment remain major defining features of theeconomy.

Theurgency of the moment is warranted by the context of the new and complicatingrealities. Oil will be history in less than 20 years' time but the pressures ofpeculiar demographics and geography are upon us. Nigeria has one of the highestpopulation growth rates in the world. If current trends continue and youbelieve the population figures, then the future may be overwhelming. By thetime a child born today turns 30 (about 2050), there will be about 400 millionNigerians and when she is 80 (about 2100), there will be about 752 millionNigerians (third largest population in the world). All these people will haveto survive and prosper in a tiny but declining land mass (923,000 sqkm) - decliningdue to desertification and erosion, and Nigeria will have the highestpopulation density in the world among the top ten most populous countries.Lagos is estimated to be home to some 88 million people by 2100 crammed inbarely 3,345 sqkm of land (or 26,307 persons per sqkm-a nightmare! Lagos isclearly unsustainable in the long run and risky for its businessconcentration). All these people will need land, housing, water, food, power,education and health facilities, sewage and waste disposal, transportation, andyes, job, jobs! The population is very youthful with 43% between 0-14 yearsold; 53% between 15-65 years and 4% over 65 years.

And theworld is not waiting for Nigeria. The world is on the 4thIndustrial revolutionwith digital economy and we are struggling with the first stage of Rostow'sstages of growth. Artificial intelligence together with other futuretechnologies such as robotics, synthetic biology, computational science,nanotechnology, quantum computing, 3D and 4D printing, internet of Things,cognitive science, self-driving vehicles, etc--- will surely produce totallydifferent social and economic configurations than what we know today. Check outChina's "Made in China 2025 Plan" and its targeted top 10 industries with anaim to dominate the world. All these entail humungous creative destructiongoing on with huge job losses and future structural unemployment. Whileelectric cars are fast replacing diesel/petrol cars many of our people arestill building petrol stations; small shops are proliferating whileagglomeration in terms of huge shopping malls together with e-shopping are thetrend; automation is upon us, etc. Ordinary people who can't explain what hashit them, resort to all sorts of criminal activities to survive.

Most futurologistsbelieve that with billions of people being added to the global population, onlynew systems for food, water, energy, education, health, skills development andjob creation, economics and governance will avert potential disastrousconsequences for humanity and the environment (See the2015-16 State ofthe Future). Economic restructuring strategy of the future thereforeentails thinking through the alternative future scenarios and mapping outalternative possible proactive responses. In which areas/sectors does Nigeriaproactively position to become global leaders by the end of 2050 or thecentury? Closer home, Nigeria has signed the African Continental Free TradeAgreement (AfCFTA). Insularity won't be an option. The name of the game of thefuture in an increasingly integrated world is innovate/compete or die.

Let'sbreak it down. Economic restructuring of the future is about positioningNigeria to compete and win in an increasingly complex world therebyguaranteeing the security, prosperity and happiness of the 400 or 752 millionNigerians, in a world without oil. It will require deploying a gamut oflegal-regulatory-governance regimes, macro and sectoral policies and programmesto alter the spatial/geographical concentration of economic activities,structure of production from primary to industrial and post-modern servicesectors, from peasant to commercial agriculture, from exhaustible naturalresources to renewable and dynamic human resource as engine of sustainabledevelopment; etc. With a current GDP of about US$400 billion (down from $540billion) and negative per capita income growth (with rising unemployment andpoverty), the restructuring of the future would entail transformational changesto generate and sustain broad based growth of at least 7% (from recent 1-2%)which is required for poverty reduction and employment generation.

Putdifferently, if we target to be a middle-income country of say, US$7,500 percapita by 2100 (from about $1,930 currently), then we need a GDP of over US$5.5trillion by 2100 (thereby requiring double digit annual growth). The agenda todo this won't just require thinking outside of the box - it would requirethinking without the box at all: big, bold plan and action! At the macrolevel, the fundamental challenge currently is that the economy is stuck at avery low speed lane in the context of a debt cliff with little fiscal space,while monetary policy is at near its limits, and low savings-investment trap,with rising unemployment and poverty. To get to poverty reducing and employmentgenerating trajectory in the short-term requires serious heavy lifting, withmajor difficult choices and extraordinary coordination ahead. Surely thegovernments at all levels have their jobs cut out for them, and we won't dwellon that here.

In sum,the alternative future that we see is one without oil, and where otherexhaustible natural resources play very little role. The future economy will bedriven by peopleour youths and technology. Nigeria's people/youths remain itspotentially greatest asset--- potentially renewable resource for productivity,huge market, and even export. Yes, the next bigger than oil export earner forNigeria will (potentially) be its human capital. Currently, Nigeria earnsalmost as much from oil exports as it earns from remittances from its Diaspora.But we cannot export illiterates in a world driven by digital revolution. Theeasiest way to waste the future is to continue to churn out millions ofsemi-illiterate, largely unemployable citizens, most of whom see criminality asthe only route to escape the poverty trap or drug as the opium for solace. Withan urbanization rate of over 5%, the conflagration that might ensure whenhundreds of millions surge to the cities but can't find jobs, housing, waterand food can only be imagined. Soon, the rich won't be able to sleep becausethe poor, homeless and hungry are awake.

By theway, who says that we can't have smart population policy that encourages peopleto have the number of children that they can train, and also ensure reliablepopulation census using biometrics rather than the political population figureswe have? Whatever the case, the challenge is how to deliberately optimize thepotentials of the huge youthful population to be highly productive at home andcompetitive/exportable abroad. An educational system with 21stcentury curriculapowered by technology that guarantees one youth, one to three skills might be awinning strategy.

As theWestern population ages and declines, they would need productive labour andNigeria can smartly position to become the largest supplier of suchlabour-indirectly through outsourcing or directly. Nigeria would have toleapfrog the industrialization ladder and services sector to provide urban jobsand rely upon smart technology to grow the food to feed the hundreds of millions.Peasant agriculture has little future especially as the population densitysurges with rapidly declining plot of land per capita. If Nigeria prospersrelative to its neighbours, it would witness a surge in migration from otherAfrican countries under the free movement of goods and persons protocol-withall the further complications for existing facilities.

III: The Challenge of Weak Foundation

Thequestion is whether the existing foundation is adequate or appropriate for thedynamics and challenges of the future? Unfortunately, the answer is no. OurConstitution, together with its command and control institutions concentratedat Abuja was designed for and around the sharing and consumption of oil rent.It is largely obsolete for the demands of a productive economy (without oilrents) which requires competitive and flexible rather than unitaryfederalism. As the oil rent that held the system together is taperingoff, its internal contradictions have burst open, requiring a coterie of survival/copingmechanisms to keep the system afloat. But for how long?

See forexample, the 12 clusters of variables that are considered in computing theFragile/Failed States Index by the U.S Fund for Peace. The index which aims to "assess vulnerability to collapse"summarizes the failure of Nigeria'sinstitution and measures four clusters of variables, namely:a)Cohesion(securityapparatus, factionalized elite, and group grievance);b)Economic(economicdecline, uneven economic development, and human flight and brain drain);c)Political(statelegitimacy, public services, and human rights and rule of law); andd)Social(demographicpressures, refugees and IDPs, and external intervention). Nigeria's ranking hasdeteriorated from 54 in 2005 and now stands between 13 and 15 over the pasteight years and largely in the Red Alert category with countries such asAfghanistan, Iraq, Haiti, Guinea, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, etc. Long-termsustainable transformation must address the root of this systemic decline. In amulti-ethnic, multi-religious society such as ours, designing institutions forstability and prosperity requires great care and should always be awork-in-progress.

Since2005 when we delivered the Democracy Day Lecture and in several of our previousarticles (see "Nigeria Without Oil"; a three-part article on the backpage of ThisDay entitled "Reconstructing Nigeria for Prosperity", "ThePolitical Economy of Restructuring the Nigerian Federation", etc) we haveelaborately demonstrated how the current Constitution and its institutionsstifle innovation and competition and hence inimical to rapid economictransformation in a post-oil world. We showed how Section 162 of theConstitution has created a perverse Lottery Effect, destroyed the incentive forwealth creation on the part of governments and foisted an indolent culture ofentitlements. As opposed to the productive, self-financing regions of the FirstRepublic, all the tiers of government now converge at Abuja every month toshare largely oil revenue. Except perhaps Lagos State, hardly any other stateor local government or even the FGN can fund its recurrent expenditures withoutoil money.

Add tothe above the suffocating concentration of powers at Abuja (see the long listof items on the exclusive and concurrent lists of the Constitution).Consequently, the federal government is saddled with hundreds of parastatalsand agencies trying to inefficiently micro manage the entire country, with therecurrent expenditure of FGN plus debt service exceeding federal revenue. Abujaimposes common rather than minimum standards. It sets the same wage to be paidby states irrespective of their incomes-of course on the assumption that theoil money will always be there to pay for it. FGN maintains federal marriage registry,issues drivers' license-which should be local government affair, runs primaryand secondary schools, etc. We have centralized policing even with stategovernors as 'chief security officers'-and expect the future 400 or 752 millionNigerians to be secured from Abuja. The Federal Government has exclusive rightover all minerals, while the Land Use Act grants the Governors the right overland. To get to the solid minerals, you must have access to the land and theconflict between State and community powers over land vis-a-vis the federalright to what is underneath it has not been resolved. The enduringconflict as well as the continuing flow of oil rents have combined to providelittle incentive to develop the solid minerals. The list is long and we don'tintend to rehash it here. By trying to keep everyone in check, Abuja hasinadvertently held the entire country down.

One finalexample is the judicial system. Property rights and rule of law constitute thefoundation of a modern economy. In Nigeria, we copied the American presidentialsystem but forgot to copy their multi-layered judicial system consistent with afederation. Instead we are stuck with a highly centralized system consistentwith the command and control structure of the 1999 Constitution and its unitaryfederalism. Every little matter can end up at the only Supreme Court: ifsomeone steals his neighbour's goat in Calabar, or there is a dispute overownership of a shop in Jos or someone dupes a petty trader of her capital inLagos, the court cases may, on appeals, end up at the Supreme Court. Apre-election dispute in a local government election in Yobe or Abia state (apurely local and state affair) can also end up at the same Supreme Court and inmany cases the judgement comes after the wrong candidate has served out theterm.

Thecourts are congested: with about 117,000 pending cases at the Federal HighCourt alone, estimated tens of thousands at the Appeal court, and over 30,000at the Supreme Court. Court cases, including commercial disputes can last fordecades. As the population balloons, it is expected that the number of pendingcases under the current system will continue to multiply. The prisons areovercrowded. Chidi Odinkalu estimates (using case study of federal prisons in Imostate and if those are representative) that the congestion rate is 170% andwith 86% of prison inmates awaiting trial. Most prisoners end up serving termshigher than would have been the case if convicted. The judges are grosslyoverworked and underpaid. Nigeria's Supreme Court is probably the only one inthe world where the justices sit every day, and yet pending cases keep mountingin thousands. As the saying goes, justice delayed is justice denied. Howdo we expect the future economy to compete and win in the new world in asociety where it can take more than 20 years to settle a simple commercialdispute that takes few days in other countries? Also our system for fightingcorruption is again concentrated at Abuja. Can we seriously expect the ICPC andEFCC to police 774 LGAs and the impending 752 million Nigerians?

We can goon and on. Global evidence is that institutions drive economic transformationbut sadly much of our institutions are either obsolete or inappropriate for thedemands of the future. Some analysts and politicians brandish economicblueprints for a post-oil Nigeria but without the concomitantlegal-political-governance infrastructure to deliver such Plans. This isactually a key missing link in many of the failed National Plans not only inNigeria but also in many countries. Such economistic plans either sought tolegislate politics out of public policy or misunderstood change to be apush-button technocratic process. Such plans are often predicated on the falseassumption that committed and visionary leadership to implement them will fallfrom the skies without understanding that except by occasional fluke, the typeof leaders in a society is a product of the system. In the end, politicswill always trump economics.

It isfair to say that no issue commands a greater, broader consensus in Nigeriatoday than a recognition that the current system needs fundamental overhaul andhence the deafening call for "restructuring" the Nigerian federation. Almostthe entire Nigerian socio-cultural-political groups (South West/Yoruba Nation;South South; South East/Ndigbo; Middle Belt, and the former Northern Region)have either produced or are working to announce their template for "restructuring". Even some political parties, led by the All ProgressivesCongress (APC), have either announced details of their position onrestructuring or made "true federalism" the centre piece of their manifestoesfor a better Nigeria.

Morefundamentally, the APC promised a bolder action plan in its 2015Manifesto: "As a change Agent, APC intend to cleanse our closet tohalt the dangerous drift of Nigeria to a failed state; with a conscious planfor post-oil-economy in Nigeria. To achieve this laudable programme APCgovernment shall restructure the country, devolve power to the units, with thebest practices of federalism and eliminate unintended paralysis of the center".During the last general election, several candidates ran on the platform of 'restructuring'. The loudest agitation for "restructuring" comes fromethno-religious-political organizations and occasionally also some politicians.Unfortunately, the fundamental economic argument is often beclouded by thepolitics of the agitation. Mutual suspicion has crept in about 'motives' andthe word 'restructuring' now means different things to different people.

Perhapsit is time to simplify or change the language. Instead of 'restructuring', canwe call it 'systemic or institutional reforms', or 'devolution and fiscalfederalism' or 'Designing a new constitution for prosperity', etc. It is goingto be a political-legal process, with continuing bargaining among differentinterest groups and the ensuing compromises but should be guided by our historyand evidence. Useful lessons may also be learnt from other countries such asSwitzerland, United Arab Emirates, Canada, the U.S. and Brazil. We should keepit simple but with eyes on the ball, namely: to design relevantpolitical-legal-governance infrastructure to ensure security and prosperity ofthe 752 million Nigerians in 80 years' time or even the most populous countryin the world in the 22ndcentury!

WhatShould Be Done?

1)Create aProductive Progressive (PP) Constitution for a world without oil.

Amongother things, this would entail:

a)Political-governancearrangements that ensure participation and ownership of the Nigerian project byall citizens of the federation- a stable and moreefficient system which promotes fairness, equity and justice. The PPConstitution that gives everyone a stake should orchestrate a new Nigeriancitizen/identity. A key focus would be to address those clusters of variablesin the U.S Fund for Peace Fragile States Index and which ranks Nigeria underthe Red Alert category. In 2003-4, we identified that exiting the FinancialAction Task Force (FATF) list of non-compliant countries as well as debt reliefwere decisive for rejigging the economy and we framed policies and legislationaround them. We succeeded and the economy was better for it. Similarly, exitingthe Red Alert list of the Fragile States Index is a desideratum. Nigeria nowranks 14 while Ghana ranks 110-and little surprise that companies arerelocating to Ghana especially given the AfCFTA.

b)Devolution ofpowersaccording to the principle of subsidiarity and variablegeometry- away from the current system of unitary-federalism, withits choking concentration of powers and responsibilities at the inefficientcentre; thereby giving power back to the people. Unless we assume that oil boomwill rebound and endure, devolution is a matter of survival for the FGN and theeconomy. The federal government should loosen its hold on policing, electricity(power), railways, ports, aviation, business incorporation, vehicle and driverslicensing, taxation powers, regulatory functions, schools, prisons, etc. Thiswill give impetus for a totally different economy. The FGN can strengthen itsregulatory oversight, while states may partner with local and internationalcorporates to deliver on these. Cross River or Delta state, Rivers or AkwaIbom, for example, may attract foreign investors to develop their ports andcompete between themselves and reap bountiful revenues. Nigeria needs at least6- 10 other cities like Lagos to emerge (for the 752 million Nigerians) but itcan't happen without competitive federation.

Inaddition, the PP Constitution should define a new Fiscal federalism that isconsistent with devolution of powers and which alters the incentives faced byeconomic and political actors, thereby unleashing the competitive spirit, hardwork, innovation and efficiency which are the hallmarks of prosperous economiesof the future. Fiscal relations affect the behaviour of firms, households andgovernments and hence economic activity. The local government system should bescrapped from the Constitution. A federation has two federating units and notthree--- each state should decide on appropriate local government system forit. Section 162 of the 1999 Constitution needs to be scrapped and replaced witha fiscal arrangement that is consistent with devolution of powers. We also needto abrogate the Land Use Act of 1978, the Solid Minerals Act, as well as thevarious Petroleum/Gas Acts and amendments, and return the right of ownership,control and exploitation of these assets to the federating units as proposed bythe APC Committee on restructuring led by Gov. El-Rufai. In turn, they shouldpay appropriate taxes to the federal government.

Nigeriaurgently needs a newFiscal Responsibility Act to constrainirresponsible fiscal behaviour and provide incentives to create wealth.A new fiscal regime should ensure that never again shall we need a wholesalebailout of state governments. For example, fiscal transfers should bebased on performance as well as in the form of matching grants scheme (therebyreplacing unconditional transfers with conditional transfers). Another exampleis that the fiscal responsibility law could constrain governments at all levelsto meet their recurrent expenditures out of their internally generated revenueswhile revenue from natural resources are deployed only for physical and humancapital development. Such fiscal responsibility Act may also constrain at least90% of all borrowing to be for project finance that will repay itself. Ourcurrent structure is centred on consumption, with an unsustainable publicfinance. An alternative structure would free up resources for investment andhence growth. This will completely alter the incentive system and power adifferent trajectory for the economy.

Much ofthe tax powers are currently concentrated at the National Assembly and thisconstrains states' flexibility in deploying fiscal instruments for development.For example, why should all corporate taxes and Value Added Tax be paid intothe federation account? Wherein lies the incentive for states and localgovernments to attract and promote industrialization? Personal income tax willincreasingly not be enough incentive in a future dominated by robotics anddigital economy. If the power for the incorporation of companies is devolved tothe states, perhaps some could be creative to design tax haven status for somecategories of companies. Some countries make hundreds of millions of dollarsper annum from this kind of innovation. Our point is that the federatingunits should have the flexibility to deploy corporate taxation as a veritableinstrument to attract or promote enterprise and for independent revenues.Furthermore, why should we have uniform salary scales across the country oreven common minimum wage? There is just too much of a unitary system whichconstrains everyone to move at the same speed instead of incentivisingdifferent segments of the society to innovate and prosper at different speeds.

2.Legal-Judicial infrastructure and Law as active instrument of economictransformation

In the 21stcentury, a prosperouseconomy is not sustainable without a sound and efficient judicial system. Weneed a progressive and practical new structure that can deliver justice to thehundreds of millions of Nigerians and businesses at the shortest possible time.As a layman, we wonder why Nigeria can't have state or zonal appeals andsupreme courts over local and state matters or why state election matters shouldgo to federal courts in a federation. The PP Constitution should provide forspecialized courts, especially commercial courts. Nigeria needs to investheavily on the judiciary-infrastructure with cutting edge technology as well ascontinuous upgrading of knowledge/skills of judges. Our judiciary should bepart of our brand. Let's do what it takes to brand Nigeria as a nation of laws.For example, London could not have become an international financial centrewithout efficient judicial system or thousands of contracts in the worldindicating London as the jurisdiction for adjudication/arbitration. Can we atleast target to be the number one legal jurisdiction in Africa? With AfCFTA,businesses will relocate to more friendly environments since they will haveaccess to all African markets. As Africa's largest economy, we ought to haveits best judiciary. Furthermore, we need to consciously deploy law as aninstrument of socio-economic transformation by enacting relevant laws tounleash competition and enterprise as well as progressive regulations for thefuture economy. Our ministry of Justice should have a new job description thatis developmental.

While theabove might seem a heavy agenda, we can start with a low hanging fruit namely,the APC's minimum template. The Gov El-Rufai's Committee on Restructuring hasseveral interesting recommendations but three stand out, namely: state police,scrapping of the local government system from the Constitution, and resourcecontrol. The APC recommends abrogating the extant legislations and transferringrights over minerals to the federating units or states. With the APC CommitteeReport and Manifesto, it is fair for Nigerians to ask: so, what's holdingaction? The APC at least has a Committee Report which is public knowledge.Where is the position of PDP as the main opposition party?

What issuggested above is part of the foundational plan for Nigeria's futureprosperity without oil. The contradictions of the old, oil-based economyvis-a-vis the population and geographical pressures are swirling and thechallenge of a new institutional framework to lead the emergence of the neweconomy is urgent. We have a choice of pre-emptive, proactive action toorchestrate a new productive (rather than sharing/consumption) structure orwait until change is forced upon us in a most chaotic manner. A wise man getsthe umbrella ready before the rain starts. We are currently at the cul-de-sacand need a fundamental disruptive change to reverse the trend. A centralmessage therefore is that systemic restructuring is not only progressivepolitics but excellent economics.

3. Fixour broken politics through ideologically and value-oriented mass participation.

A securedand prosperous country of the future won't drop from the skies. Nor can welegislate politics out of public policy. Every advanced or progressive societywe see in the world today is the product of organization, struggles andcontinuous contestations for a more perfect union or society. In a democracy,there is no other route to a better future than the instrumentality ofpolitics. Politics is therefore too serious to be left to those who callthemselves politicians. It is our collective destiny.

Unfortunately,our politics is broken. It is destructive rather than developmental. We defineNigeria's current politics as largely "dining table politics"--- the 'you chopI chop', or what an author Michela Wrong describes as "It is our turn to eat" politics. Consequently, political parties are mere platforms to grab power---same people, same interest---driven by crass opportunism and primitiveaccumulation. It is largely about "what is in it for my pocket" and not about "how can I contribute to leave this world a better place than I met it"? When aminister is appointed, his friends and ethnic or religious group shamelesslycelebrate or complain depending on whether they consider it as 'juicy' or 'dry' appointment. Yet the same people complain about corruption in government. Wehave a national crisis of value dressed in hypocrisy. We really have a long wayto the future of our dream. But a problem identified is half solved.

Forstarters, we need to fix the electoral and judicial system to ensure that onlyvotes count and all votes are counted. This will transfer real power back tothe people, free from the stranglehold of an opportunistic elite. With power inthe hands of the people and with the institutional reforms proposed above whichrequire leaders with capacity for wealth creation, then ideas-based,cake-baking politics can emerge. The current politics is woven around thesharing and consumption of oil rents-and you don't need any productive skillsor to be a person of ideas to be able to "share the money".

But theoil money is fast running out. Total oil income is barely $100 per person-notenough to provide 21stcentury primary and secondary education to our children. The 2019budget of FGN (if implemented 100%) translates to about $120 per capita--- tofund debt servicing (which is about 22%), pay salaries, run the hugebureaucracy, schools and hospitals, police and military, maintain embassiesabroad, roads and railways, etc. The obscene cost of governance and stealing atall levels of government is known. This is within the context that somemillions of children are out of school, over 30% of the population are foodpoor, millions without medication, water, housing, and jobs while a fewpoliticians display obscene lifestyles. In the U.S, the wife of the Governor ofthe state of Maine (with per capita income of $47,969) in 2017 had to take up ajob in a Restaurant to augment the income of her husband- as they wanted tosave money to buy Toyota Rav4 car for her. In Nigeria with per capita incomeof $1,930 and even in states with per capita income below $1,000 per annum, youcan complete the story...! Soon or later, something will give and a totallydifferent politics needs to emerge to secure the future.

Ideas-basedor ideologically driven politics is the future. Forget about the names of theparties-democratic, progressive, liberal, etc-there are no discernibledifferences except the membership, which also switches and changes everyminute. A review of the manifestoes of the political party candidates duringthe last elections is troubling. Many of us still remember the four cardinalprogrammes and ideologies of the five political parties of the Second Republicbut I doubt how many people can coherently explain what their parties stand fortoday. For example, how can you identify an APC or PDP state if you seeone? Beyond sloganeering, we have serious work to do. Our view isthat as the system transits from a rentier, cake-sharing regime to one ofcake-baking, citizens of conscience, regardless of ethnicity and religion, mustrealign along ideological lines to offer Nigerians real alternatives regardingthe pathways to their future. Mass participation founded on patriotism,passion and values of hard work and integrity should drive the politics of thefuture. Those who have something to offer for a better future-especially ouryouths-- must stand up to be counted or stop complaining. The perverse value ofsome of the youths summarized by the phrase "get rich young or die trying" isnot part of the future we desire. We must be the change we want to see. Only avigilant and active citizenry that holds public officers to account will securethe future.

IV: Conclusion

We mustnow conclude. Our summary message is that an alternative glorious future - thenext Nigeria for 400 or 752 million Nigerians-- is possible. It is a futurewithout oil but powered by our greatest asset-human capital plus technology,and which guarantees security, prosperity and happiness. But transition to thatfuture requires a new foundation as it is impossible to try to build a 100storey-building upon the foundation of an old bungalow. Elements of thisfoundation include a PP Constitution that creates a competitive federation;devolution of powers that unbundles Abuja and loosens its choking strangleholdon the economy; a fiscal federalism that promotes competition, innovation andhard work; a new judicial structure and performance that brands Nigeria as acountry of laws with the best judiciary in Africa; and a new developmentalpolitics with citizens power.

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Economic and Institutional Restructuring for the Next Nigeria - Soludo - Proshare Nigeria Limited

Do you really think NDC faithful would ever condemn a coup dtat? – Modern Ghana

Some of us are not the least surprised to see some members of the opposition NDC vehemently ridiculing and dismissing the authenticity of the recent alleged coup plot.

In fact, ever since the news spiralled through that some alleged conspiratorial plotters are conspiring to destabilise the ambiance of the country, the NDC loyalists have been dismissing the veracity of the information, while contending vigorously that the arms and munitions found in the possession of the suspects cannot even kill a rat, let alone staging a coup dtat.

But the fact of the matter is that NDC faithful could not speak against a coup dtat as the party was born out of vicious coup dtats.

Mind you, there is widespread impression that NDC is synonymous with coup dtats and therefore the party loyalists feel uncomfortable to condemn such abhorrent action.

In fact, NDC was founded on the ideals of their coup making founder J. J. Rawlings (detailed in Article 6 of their party constitution which their founder Rawlings autographed with his blood).

Rightly so, the NDC loyalists would never agree with some of us for persistently analysing the current affairs through the lenses of the past.

But I am afraid we cannot make sense of the present happenings if we refused to take stock of the past events.

The story was told, somewhat vividly, that on June 4 1979, some mutinous army officers went into a conniption-fit, usurped the government of the day and unjustifiably released convicts and suspects from a lawful penitentiary, including the founder of the NDC, J. J. Rawlings.

If we stroll down memory lane, General I. K. Acheampong led a group of disgruntled army officers and deposed Prime Minister Dr Kofi Abrefa Busias government in 1972 and formed a government which they called The Supreme Military Council (SMC).

However, in 1978, General Acheampong was accused of economic mismanagement and forced to resign by a group of army officers led by General Akufo.

Subsequently, General Akufo and his other rabble rousers rechristened the government as the Supreme Military Council 2 (SMC2).

A sequential account is given, though anecdotally, that the harsh living conditions at the time prompted a group of patriotic citizens to stand up against the injustices and demanded a democratic rule.

But before the country could reach a consensus on the question of civilian rule, a group of disgruntled junior army officers led by Flight Lieutenant Jerry John Rawlings failed in their insurrection against General Fred Akuffos regime on 15th May 1979, which led to the arrest and trial of Rawlings and his cohorts.

Nevertheless, the judicial process was halted prematurely by a group of soldiers sympathetic to Rawlings, who revolted on 4th June 1979.

The June 4 1979 jailbreakers unabashedly released suspects and convicts from a lawful penitentiary, deposed the government of the day, and, gave uncountable innocent Ghanaians a hell in the process.

After unblushingly deposing General Akuffo and his Supreme Military Council (SMC 2) government, the stubbornly impenitent jailbreakers went ahead and formed their own government, which they called as the Armed Forces Revolutionary Council (AFRC) and appointed Flt. Rawlings as their chairman.

Rawlings and his minions vowed to lustrate the country of the rampant sleazes, corruption and social injustices which instigated their coup dtat.

So in their attempt to purge the country of the perceived injustices, they carried out what they termed house cleaning exercise,--they dealt with perceived offenders arbitrarily.

The mutinous jailbreakers proceeded with their intentions and callously exterminated prominent people including General Fred Akuffo, General Kutu Acheampong, General Akwasi Afrifa and many others.

After getting rid of individuals they viewed as a threat to their hidden agenda with an unabashed disgust, the jailbreaking cabals decided to conduct general elections for political parties in the same year-1979.

Following the successful election, Dr Hilla Limann and his Peoples National Party (PNP) emerged victorious in 1979.

An account is given, though vividly, that the Limann government assumed office at a time when the economy was in deep crisis. The credit lines to the country had almost dried up and were blocked due to brutalities and confiscations at the harbours and other points of entry into Ghana by the coup making founders of the NDC.

However, the story was told, somewhat poignantly, that through careful negotiations, preparations and the implementation of pragmatic policies and programmes, the Limann government managed to arrest the economic challenges.

More importantly, commendable efforts were made to repay Ghanas short-term debts, and, the Limann government demonstrated the ability to meet Ghanas debt obligations.

Consequently, Dr Limanns government managed within 18 months and restored virtually all traditional credit lines (Source: PNC).

But despite all the great efforts, Rawlings and his cohorts did not give Dr Liman and his PNP government the breathing space to govern the country, as they relentlessly breathed down the neck of President Limann.

As a matter of fact, Rawlings and his coup making minions unfairly kept criticising Dr Limanns administration for what the conspiratorial plotters perceived as economic mismanagement, until Rawlings and his jailbreaking geezers decided to depose Dr Limann.

Subsequently, Rawlings and the other mutinous jailbreakers took arms and succeeded in supplanting the democratically elected government of Dr Hilla Limann on 31st December 1981.

There is no gainsaying the fact that Rawlings and his rabble rousers ignobly supplanted power at the time when Ghanas economy was blossoming steadily in 1981.

Indeed, Dr Hilla Limann and his PNP government were hitting the ground running and therefore there was no need for anyone to disturb the ambiance.

Rawlings and his friends formed a government which they called the Provisional national Defence Council (PNDC) and appointed Rawlings as the chairman.

In their attempts to get rid of alleged sleazes and corruption, many Ghanaians were unjustifiably murdered or tortured mercilessly for apparent infinitesimal offences.

Some market women were regrettably stripped naked in the public and whipped for hauling their products or selling on high prices. While their male counterparts were wickedly shaved with broken bottles and whipped for offences that would not even warrant a Police caution in a civilized society.

As if that was not enough, three eminent High Court Judges and a prominent Army Officer were barbarically murdered by some mindless stooges of PNDC on 30th June 1982 for carrying out their constitutionally mandated duties.

June 30th 1982 continues to remain a dark spot in the nations political history and a nightmare for all judges in the country, after the three High Court Judges namely, Mr. Justice Fred Poku Sarkodie, Mrs. Justice Cecilia Koranteng- Addow and Mr. Justice Kwadwo Agyei Agyapong as well as a retired army officer, Major Sam Acquah, were callously murdered under strange circumstances at the Bundase Military Range in the Accra Plains, after being abducted on the night by some unidentified assailants (rawafrica.com).

The story is told that rigorous investigations revealed that all the three Judges were sitting on review cases brought by citizens disgusted over the treatment meted out to them by the Armed Forces Revolutionary Council, which the military junta formed after June 4, led by Flt. Lt. Rawlings.

It was, however, reported that the Judges ordered the release of persons who had been unlawfully sentenced to long terms of imprisonment during the despotic rule of the Armed Forces Revolutionary Council (AFRC).

Apparently, the Army Officer, Major Sam Acquah, was the head of administration who signed dismissal letters for some GIHOC workers, including one of the murder suspects, Joachim Amartey Kwei, whose services were terminated for invading and destroying property at the Parliament House.

Unfortunately, the PNDC fatuous apologists savagely murdered the three eminent High Court Judges and the Army Officer because their judgement did not go in their favour.

The Special Investigation Board (SIB) thus concluded that the abduction and murder was a diabolical plot orchestrated by, and with the connivance of the members of the Provisional National Defence Council.

As a matter of fact, Ghanas coup days under the jailbreaking founders of the NDC could be likened to: in the China of the Great Helmsman, Kim Il Sungs Korea, Vietnam under Uncle Ho , Cuba under Castro, Ethiopia under Mengistu, Angola under Neto, and Afghanistan under Najibullah.

Although the PNDC administration back then paraded some seasoned politicians, the vast majority of the military personnel who headed important Ministries were novices in the political scene.

Unsurprisingly, therefore, Rawlingss administration adopted a seemingly disastrous Economic Recovery Programme (ERP), which was introduced under the auspices of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Regrettably, the vast majority of tangible national assets, including the state owned enterprises were allegedly sold to friends and families for pittance.

In practice, the apparent unfavourable Economic Recovery Programme culminated in a catalogue of hardships. And, on top of the harsh programmes and policies which threatened the economic fundamentals, the population had to clutch itself for food shortages, a situation which the world press somehow ignored in favour of the concurrent Ethiopian famine that resulted in millions of deaths.

As food shortages escalated in Ghana, some traders started creating artificial shortages of goods by hoarding them so as to charge exorbitant prices at a later time.

Indeed, their desperate attempts to initiate the Programme of Action to Mitigate the Social Costs of Adjustment (PAMSCAD) did nothing to improve the unfortunate situation as untold hardships permeated many households.

Starvation, so to speak, visited the vast majority of Ghanaians, and hence developing revoltingly ugly collar bones which the humorous Ghanaians renamed as Rawlings Chain. That was indeed the pernicious extent of the hunger.

After imposing himself and despotically ruling the country for over 11 years, J. J. Rawlings retired from the military, formed the National Democratic Congress (NDC) and bizarrely metamorphosed into civilian president in 1992.

It is, however, worth stressing that Ex-President Rawlings 96 months democratic rule came to an end in January 2001.

Disappointingly, despite being in power for nineteen years, former President J. J. Rawlingss could not initiate any meaningful policies and programmes to improve on the socio-economic standards of living, but only managed to destabilise Ghanas macroeconomic indicators.

Thus, President Kufuor had a tough time running the country when he took over the presidency on 7th January 2001, as there was not much funds left in the national purse to plan anything meaningful.

Ghana was then declared as Highly Indebted Poor Country (HIPC). The newly elected President Kufuor had a tough decision to make, by either embracing or rejecting the HIPC status.

However, the forward thinking President Kufuor chose to ingest an insipid pill with a view to getting over the malaise. He thus pragmatically embraced the HIPC status in 2001.

On reflection, though, the benefits of the HIPC were unprecedented during former President Kufuors administration, from (2001-2008).

As a consequence, macroeconomic indicators begun to stabilize and Ghanas debt stock was significantly reduced by about $4 billion within that period (BOG).

Besides, as a result of the HIPC initiative and prudent borrowing, Ghanas external debt stock actually declined from $6.1 billion in 2000 to$3.8 billion by 2008 (BOG). It was an unprecedented achievement, so to speak.

The average GDP growth of the NDC from 1993-2000 was 3.8% while that of the NPP from 2001-2008 was5.2% with economic growth reaching 6.3% in 2007 and 9.1 in 2009 (GSS/BOG).

President Kufuor worked strenuously for eight solid years, laid a favourable economic foundation and retired honourably.

He then passed on the baton to the late President Mills on 7th January 2009, following his2008 election victory.

Regrettably, though, things started to fall apart. It went from bad to worse following President Mills sudden and mysterious death. The conspiratorial plotters then had a field day leading to the 2012 general elections.

Ex-President Mahama and his NDC apparatchiks went berserk in their desperation to cling on to power. Thus they broke all conventions. Many government departments spent over and above their allocated budgets.

Many observers unsurprisingly harbour a strong view that Ghanas economic downslide came about as a result of the unbridled sleazes and gargantuan corruptions which took place in the erstwhile NDC administration.

Unfortunately, former President Mahama and his NDC apparatchiks failed to acknowledge that corruption is a key element in economic underperformance and a major obstacle to poverty alleviation and development.

The general belief back then was that they bought votes with the tax payers money. They nonetheless clung on to power following the controversial election on 7th December 2012. Suffice it to state that their victory came with huge costs to the state.

The previously single digit inflation and budget deficit doubled astronomically. The GH9.5 billion debt which former President Kufuor and his NPP government left in 2009 rocketed artificially to unpronounceable figures. Our total debt ballooned to GH122.4 billion as of December 2016.

To be quite honest, Ghana went into the throes of economic collapse due to mismanagement and wanton sleazes and corruption under the leadership of Ex-President Mahama.

Take, for example, Ghanas economic growth slowed for the fourth consecutive year to an estimated 3.4% in 2015 from 4% in 2014 as energy rationing (dumsor), high inflation, and ongoing fiscal consolidation weighed on economic activity (World Bank, 2016).

Moreover, the high inflation rate remain elevated at 18.5% in February 2016 compared to 17.7% in February 2015, even after the Central Banks 500 bps policy rate hikes (the inflation stood at 15.8 per cent as of October 2016).

Besides, President Mahamas coarse government dragged the economic growth from around 14 per cent in 2011 to around 3.6 per cent as of December 2016.

Ex-President Mahama, so to speak, performed abysmally. He did not do enough to improve on the socio-economic standards of living.

In fact, former President Kufuor quadrupled Ghanas GDP to a staggering $28 billion in 2008. And the late Mills inherited oil in commercial quantities and managed to increase the GDP to $40 billion in 2011.

Suffice it to stress that former President Mahama disappointingly reversed the GDP to an incredible $37 billion as of December 2016.

But despite the huge economic mess created by the outgone NDC government amid the unpardonable stunted economic growth, the Akufo-Addos government has efficiently raised the economic growth from a disappointing 3.4 per cent as of December 2016 to over 8 per cent within a short space of time.

In addition, the NPP government has dramatically reversed the inflation rate to a single digit from a little over 15 per cent as of December 2016.

Within a short space of time, the Akufo-Addos government managed to raise the economic growth. Ghanas economy grew provisionally by 8.5 percent in 2017 compared to 3.7 percent in 2016 (Ghana Statistical Service, 2018).

Interestingly, the Industry sector recorded the highest growth rate of 16.7 percent, followed by Agriculture 8.4 percent and the Services 4.3 percent.

Services share of GDP decreased from 56.8 percent in 2016 to 56.2 percent in 2017. The sector's growth rate also decreased from 5.7 percent in 2016 to 4.3 percent in 2017.

However, two of the subsectors in the services sector recorded double-digit growth rates, including Information and Communication 13.2 percent and Health and Social Work 14.4 percent.

The Industry sector, the highest growing sector with a GDP share of 25.5 percent, had its growth rate increasing from -0.5 percent in 2016 to 16.7 percent in 2017.

The Mining and Quarrying subsector recorded the highest growth of 46.7 percent in 2017.

The Agriculture sector expanded from a growth rate of 3.0 percent in 2016 to 8.4 percent in 2017. Its share of GDP, however, declined from 18.7 percent in 2016 to 18.3 percent in 2017. Crops remain the largest activity with a share of 14.2 percent of GDP.

The Non-Oil annual GDP growth rate decreased from 5.0 percent in 2016 to 4.9 percent in 2017. The 2017 Non-oil GDP for industry recorded a growth rate of 0.4 percent, compared with 4.9 percent in 2016. Growth in the fourth quarter of 2017 reached 8.1 percent compared to 9.7 percent in the third quarter (GNA, 2018).

Apparently, since Ghana regained the independence from the British on 6th March 1957, the NDC tradition (PNDC and NDC) had governed the country more than any other government one can think of. In fact, that tradition had governed Ghana for approximately 27 years out of Ghanas 62 years.

If we revisit memory lane, the CPP tradition (CPP and PNP) governed the country for approximately 12 years.

Disappointingly, though, the last Nkrumaists government formed by the PNP, and led by Dr Hilla Limann, was deposed by the founders of the NDC which was spearheaded by Ex-President J. J. Rawlings on 31st December 1981.

The military regimes of the NLC, SMC 1 and 2 ruled Ghana for approximately 10 years before the founders of the NDC revoltingly usurped power on 4th June 1979.

The UP tradition (PP and NPP) total share of the day-to-day management of the country is about 13 years to date.

In my humble opinion, in terms of useful infrastructural projects which put the country at a substantial and auspicious position, Dr Nkrumahs CPP government did exceedingly better than any of the administrations that followed.

Then also, even though Prime Minister Kofi Abrefa Busias government lasted for less than three years, he did his utmost best in terms of meaningful development.

The achievements of Busia's government include inter alia, the building of roads, housing, provision of healthcare facilities and water.

Besides, Dr Busia was the first Ghanaian leader to create a ministry responsible for rural development, a decision which was in consonance with his consuming desire to improving the socio-economic living standards of the rural dwellers (Daily Guide, 11/07/2013).

I must, however, confess that generally, I abhor the shenanigans of coup makers, but General I. K. Acheampong (The Head of State from 1972-78) was an exception to my arousing disgust. Indeed, I had a great deal of respect for the man, primarily due to his great sense of foresight.

In my view, General I. K. Acheampong was a visionary leader who initiated pragmatic policies such as operation feed yourself and affordable housing units.

It is against such background that some of us cannot get our heads around how and why some people would choose to bypass the worst culprit, the NDC on Ghanas underdevelopment, and, would gleefully upbraid the likes of CPP, PNP, NLC, SMC, and NPP.

K. Badu, UK.

[emailprotected]

Disclaimer:"The views/contents expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author(s) and do not neccessarily reflect those of Modern Ghana. Modern Ghana will not be responsible or liable for any inaccurate or incorrect statements contained in this article."

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Do you really think NDC faithful would ever condemn a coup dtat? - Modern Ghana

Crowded Space Station: There Are 9 People from 4 Different Space Agencies in Orbit Right Now – Space.com

It's a busy week at the International Space Station (ISS). With nine crewmembers currently on board, the orbiting laboratory will be unusually crowded until Thursday (Oct. 3), when three of those crewmembers are scheduled to return to Earth.

While the ISS is usually staffed by three to six astronauts and cosmonauts, there have been nine crewmembers on board the space laboratory since last Wednesday (Sept. 25), when the Soyuz MS-15 spacecraft arrived with three new crewmembers. This isn't a permanent set-up; part of the reason there are so many humans in space right now has to do with overlap in crew assignments.

Nine is certainly not the highest number of people ever stationed on the space lab. The record for the largest population on the ISS was set in 2009, when there were 13 people on board. The last time there were nine people on board was in 2015, during NASA astronaut Scott Kelly's "Year in Space" mission.

Related: Expedition 60: The Space Station Mission in Photos

The International Space Station's nine-person crew of Expedition 60 poses in "space band" shirts in this photo shared by European Space Agency astronaut Luca Parmitano (upside down) on Sept. 30, 2019. The shirts say "Kryk Chayky" (Cry of the Seagull in Russian). Pictured are (clockwise from top left) NASA astronaut Christina Koch, Parmitano, NASA astronaut Drew Morgan, Russian cosmonauts Alexander Skvortsov and Oleg Skripochka, NASA astronauts Jessica Meir and Nick Hague, and cosmonaut Alexey Ovchinin, giving a thumbs up as crew commander.

Over the course of the eight days when the space station will be a bit of a tight fit, the newly-arrived trio will get acclimated to their new orbiting home, while three other space flyers will prepare to head back down to Earth.

The new residents are NASA astronaut Jessica Meir and Roscosmos cosmonaut Oleg Skripochka, who will spend six months in space as members of Expedition 61, plus a special short-term visitor: the first person from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to fly into space, Hazzaa Ali Almansoori. The three launched on board Russia's Soyuz MS-15 spacecraft last Wednesday (Sept. 25) from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan shortly before 7 p.m. local time, and arrived at the space lab about six hours later.

Almansoori's brief visit is part of an intergovernmental contract between the UAE and Roscosmos, according to NASA. Almansoori will return to Earth this Thursday (Oct. 3) on the Soyuz MS-12 spacecraft, accompanied by NASA astronaut Nick Hague and ISS commander Alexey Ovchinin, both of whom will have completed more than 200 days in space.

The nine-person crew currently aboard the International Space Station appear to be all smiles. On Sept. 25, the space station welcomed three new people onboard, and this Thursday (Oct. 3) two long-time residents and one short-term visitor will return to Earth.

(Image credit: NASA)

Also on board the ISS right now are the crew of the Soyuz MS-13 spacecraft: NASA astronaut Drew Morgan, European Space Agency astronaut Luca Parmitano and Russian cosmonaut Alexander Skvortsov. The three spacemen arrived at the ISS on July 20 and will return to Earth sometime in December or January.Three of the men (Parmitano, Ovchinin and Hague) are celebrating birthdays this week. To celebrate, all nine crewmembers donned "space band" shirts for a photo this week.

Ovchinin, who is currently the commander of Expedition 60, will hand over command of the ISS to Parmitano on Wednesday (Oct. 2), marking the official beginning of Expedition 61. You can watch the change of command ceremony live on Space.com beginning at 9:20 a.m. EDT (1320 GMT), courtesy of NASA TV. Later that night, we'll stream live views of the crew farewells (beginning at 12:20 a.m. EDT on Oct. 3), followed by the Soyuz MS-12 undocking and landing early Thursday morning.

Follow Doris Elin Urrutia on Twitter @salazar_elin. Follow us on Twitter @Spacedotcom and on Facebook.

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(Image credit: All About Space magazine)

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Crowded Space Station: There Are 9 People from 4 Different Space Agencies in Orbit Right Now - Space.com

UAE in Space: How to spot International Space Station from UAE – Gulf News

The International Space Station is the largest manmade object in the sky and is home to a crew of 10 astronauts. Image Credit: NASA

Baikonur: Emirati astronaut Hazzaa Al Mansoori can see Earth from the ISS.

But did you know that you can also see the space station while hes onboard as it flies over the UAE?

Hazzaa blasted off to space on Wednesday night at 5.57pm (UAE time), breaking barriers by becoming the first Emirati in space and the first Arab on the ISS.

He will stay on the ISS for eight days to conduct 16 scientific experiments, including the effect of weightlessness on his body, conduct a tour the ISS in Arabic, and host a traditional Emirati night for his space colleagues.

While he orbits the Earth 16 times a day every 90 minutes on the ISS, he will definitely be flying over the Emirates.

But when and how will we know?

Michael Flachbart, who worked for nearly 30 years at the US Space and Rocket Centre (USSRC), the official Nasa Visitor Information Centre for the Marshall Space Flight Centre, and now the space camp head of Compass International in Dubai, showed us when.

Based on calculations and modeling using information from the Spot the Station under Nasa, Flachbart said there are two best sighting opportunities for UAE residents between September 26 and October 3 during Hazzaas stay on the ISS.

Of course the ISS will fly by the UAE two to three times per day but the ISS cannot be seen during the day and when there are bright lights.

The website Spot The Station only shows you sighting opportunities for two weeks. I went to some modeling software and I advanced the time to September 25th to October 2nd and I had to look to see when it was going to fly over the UAE at night time within about an hour or two of sunrise and sunset, Flachbart told Gulf News.

The best dates/times estimated to spot the station over the UAE are September 29 at 7.54pm and October 2 at 7.02pm.

The ISS will not be difficult to spot as it is the third brightest object in the sky, according to Nasa.

You wont need any special glasses or lenses to see it. It is visible to the naked eye.

How will I know its the ISS?

Nasa said the ISS looks like a fast-moving plane but at a higher altitude and definitely travelling thousands of miles an hour faster.

It actually orbits the Earth at around 28,000km/h or 7.66km/second, that is 45 times faster than the worlds fastest roller coaster. And thats like jumping from the Burj Khalifa further down to Safa Park in one second.

Conditions have to be favourable to be able to spot the ISS, according to Compass International and SARA UAE or the Space Education Programme of Compass Curriculum.

The sky and the area where you are need to be dark for the this engineering marvel to be spotted.

And just like stars, you will see the station if there is no haze or cloud cover. Skies have to be clear.

Lastly, because the station does not have lights unlike airplanes with the blinking lights, the best time to spot it is just before sunrise or just after sunset. This way, the ISS will reflect sunlight.

For more information, visit spotthestation.nasa.gov

Source: Michael Flachbart

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UAE in Space: How to spot International Space Station from UAE - Gulf News

Space Photos of the Week: The ISS is Out of This World – WIRED

The International Space Station is a football-field-sized science laboratory that orbits some 250 miles above Earth. Usually between three to nine people are on board at any time, and while it seems like theyre probably playing with floating water and watching their hair do funny things, theyre actually doing a lot of science.

In any case, theres not a lot of spare time. The space station also takes work to maintain, which is one reason why astronauts conduct space walks. They often head into the void to repair or replace parts, or even set up scientific experiments on the outside of the station. This week were tagging along with some astronauts while they zoom around our planet.

Just a few days ago, NASA astronaut Christina Koch captured this truly epic photo of her best friend and fellow astronaut, Jessica Meir, launching from Earth and heading to the ISS. The perspective in this photo is quite stunning, because we can see the thin blue atmosphere of Earth, the launch trail of the Soyuz capsule as it climbs, and the dividing line of darkness that the ISS orbits within. And while this seems like a long trek, it only takes the Soyuz about five minutes to get into space, and another six hours before it catches up with the ISSwhich is hurtling around Earth at 17,000 mph.

Check out more snapshots below from humanity's remotest outpost.

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Space Photos of the Week: The ISS is Out of This World - WIRED

ISROs space docking experiment to happen next year, says Sivan – BusinessLine

Indias space agency, ISRO, plans space docking experiment (SPADEX) next year, the agencys Chairman, Kailasavadivoo Sivan, toldBusiness Linetoday. Docking refers to connecting of two flying objects in space, either to transfer men or material from one to the other, or two join two structures to make a bigger one.

Two satellites would be sent to space on board a regular PSLV mission and the two would be made to dock with each other, Sivan said, describing the exercise as a technology demonstration experiment.

Mastering this extremely difficult technology is crucial for the operations of an Indian space station, a lab up in spaceastronauts would need to be ferried from the earth to the space station and back. This can be achieved only if the vehicle carries the astronauts can dock with the space station.

Asked when ISRO planned to build a space station, Sivan said that the project was still some distance away, and would be taken up only after the Gaganyaan mission, which is to take astronauts to space and bring them back to earth safely, through the rigours of re-entry into earths atmosphere. Gaganyaan is expected to happen in December 2021.

Docking is broadly for two different purposesfor sending human beings from a shuttle to a space station, or for assembling large satellites in space. Each of these has different complexities. In the case of docking for human transfers, there is scope for human intervention if something goes wrong; when satellites mate in space to form larger structures, it all has to be done by using devices such as sensors and cameras.

Imagine two objects satellites flying in space at incredible velocities, of the order of 10 km a second. When they are a few kilometres away, they communicate with each other and the one in front slows down in order that the follower comes close. When they are close enough, onboard cameras (or, lasers) switch on and they look at each other. Guided by camera, one latches on to the other and the two become a larger structure. This way, enormous structures can be built in space.

Elsewhere in the world, there are talks of space solar stations, which are giant solar power plants up in space which produce electricity from the sun and beam it down to earth in the form of microwaves.

Docking will be a key capability in future space operations and ISROs first step in that direction SPADEXwill happen next year.

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ISROs space docking experiment to happen next year, says Sivan - BusinessLine

Veggies in Space: NASA Partners with School Kids to Research Healthier Choices for Meals on the Space Station – WMFE

Teachers get trained on how to construct their new veggie boxes. Photo: Danny Rivero WLRN

Teachers in Miami-Dade County gathered this weekend at Fairchild Tropical Botanical Garden to get new materials that could one day help take humans deeper into space. And if all goes well, it could provide a meal for the classroom.

TheGrowing Beyond Earthproject is a partnership between NASA and Fairchild. Currently in its fifth year, middle and high school students have been helping NASA perform real research about which foods can best grow in the International Space Station and someday beyond.

At this point a couple of the crops that the students have selected have actually gone through our entire process and made it to the space station, said Gioia Massa, a space crop scientist for NASA at the Kennedy Space Center.

Last year, astronauts grew and ate varieties of dwarf bok choy and dragoon lettuce, purelybasedon the research students provided.

135 schools in Miami-Dade County have been given free boxes to grow food and test with, all within specific protocols developed by Fairchild and NASA. High schools are also participating in Broward and Palm Beach counties, as well as schools in Ohio, Colorado, Pennsylvania and Puerto Rico.

The data gathered by the students is shared with NASA over Google Sheets, and researchers pour over the results, certifying results at Kennedy Space Center before sending seeds and instructions up to astronauts at the International Space Station.

Were looking for things that grow well in a small space, about two foot square, things that produce a large amount of edible biomass, things that have lots of vitamins that are not found in the processed diet, and also plants that have really strong flavors, said Amy Padolf, the director of education at Fairchild. When youre in zero gravity, its like you have a head cold all the time, so your taste buds get muted.

No one goes to space for the food, laughed Trent Smith, a NASA vegetable project manager. So this definitely helps.

Massa stressed that beyond nutrition and a bit of zest for the palate, theres a psychological aspect of having astronauts grow plants they can eat. Anecdotally, NASA knows that taking care of plants can have a positive impact on crew members. NASA is currently surveying them to try to put harder data on the benefits of being around plants in such an inorganic space, but also looking at possible negative factors.

If your plants got sick or died, how would that make the crew feel? Anyone who has gardened knows how that can impact you, she said. We really want to understand these impacts in the context of being in a space station.

In the classroom, teachers who have participated in the program said it is popular among students.

My students love the fact that theres really only two degrees of separation between them and the International Space Station, said Andrew Kearns, the mathematics chair at Jose Marti Mast 6-12 Academy in Hialeah. The research that theyre doing here is really at the grassroots level of what can feed us in space in a space station, on the moon, on Mars and I really think that they do see that big picture.

The students feel like theyre contributing so something thats bigger than just the school or the classroom. They feel like theyre doing something really big, said Desiree Rodriguez, a teacher at West Miami Middle School.

The work that students are doing in their classrooms in collaboration with Fairchild is really about laying the groundwork for more lunar exploration and ultimately a trip to Mars, said Ralph Fritsche, the space crop production manager for NASA at the Kennedy Space Center.

Over long periods of time, packaged foods that astronauts get starts to lose its nutritional value. That poses a real question about how viable multi-year trips can be, the deeper into space we go.

Its a real risk to crew health and performance, and we have to go in and figure how can I bolster that? said Fritsche. Naturally were trying to extend the prepackaged food, but as a benchmark to be able to help buy down that risk, we want to also add fresh foods to it.

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Veggies in Space: NASA Partners with School Kids to Research Healthier Choices for Meals on the Space Station - WMFE

NASA is now officially accepting proposals for landers to take people to the Moon – The Verge

NASA is now officially accepting proposals for lunar lander designs that can carry humans to the surface of the Moon. The space agency issued a final call to the commercial space industry today, with proposals due November 1st.

Human lunar landers are a critical component of NASAs Artemis program, an initiative to send people back to the Moons surface in less than five years. These landers are meant to live at a new space station that NASA wants to build in orbit around the Moon called the Gateway. Astronauts will supposedly travel to the Gateway in NASAs future rocket the Space Launch System, or SLS and from there, theyll travel in the landers down to the Moon.

Specifically, NASA is looking for landers that consist of two to three main pieces. First, the descent stage hardware that will lower the vehicle down to the surface of the Moon. Second, the ascent stage, which is what astronauts will ride in when they take off from the lunar surface and return back to the Gateway. A third component is known as the transfer stage; this piece is basically a tug that can transport the other two elements from the Gateway to an orbit thats closer to the Moon, making it easier to get everything to and from the surface.

Companies will also need to specify how theyll get their lunar landers to the Gateway. They can use commercial vehicles, such as SpaceXs Falcon Heavy or Blue Origins future New Glenn rocket, or they can use NASAs future SLS rocket, slated to fly in 2021 at the earliest.

From the proposals it receives, NASA eventually plans to select two of those companies to actually go through the process of making the landers and sending them to the Gateway. One companys lander will be tasked with doing the first coveted landing with people on board in 2024, while the second will do another crewed landing in 2025. NASA does not plan on doing any uncrewed test landings with these designs beforehand, though.

A few companies have already given the public a sneak peek of their plans. Lockheed Martin unveiled a lunar lander design thats derived from the companys Orion capsule, which NASA astronauts will ride in on top of NASAs SLS. Jeff Bezos also showed off Blue Origins Blue Moon lunar lander concept in May, which he claims the company has been working on for the last three years.

This finalized call to industry comes a few months after NASA posted two draft documents detailing what kind of landers and contracts it was looking for from the commercial space sector. During those months, companies provided NASA with feedback as it edited its request. NASA claims it removed language and requirements that companies thought might slow down the development schedule. The entire process from drafts to final call has been much speedier than many of NASAs other contract selections, which can take many months to years to be awarded. The expedited schedule has been necessary in order to meet Vice President Mike Pences challenge to NASA from March of this year to send people back to the Moon four years earlier than the agency had planned.

While NASA has been speedy in getting out this call to industry, these lunar lander selections all hinge on what kind of budget the space agency is given next year. In order to get a jump-start on the Artemis program, the Trump administration requested an extra $1.6 billion for NASA for next year in a budget amendment, with $1 billion going toward the development of new lunar landers. However, its not clear whether NASA will actually receive those additional funds. The Senate Appropriations Committee recently passed a funding bill for next year that gives NASA a big boost in its budget, but only provides $744.1 million for developing new lunar technologies for Artemis.

The final budget for 2020 is still being decided, but NASA says that money is key. For this year, what we need is that budget amendment so that we can get the landing systems awarded get those contracts out, Ken Bowersox, the acting head of NASAs human exploration office, testified before the House Science Committee this September. Because thats our long pole for right now for getting to the lunar surface.

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NASA is now officially accepting proposals for landers to take people to the Moon - The Verge

Elon Musk Unveils SpaceX’s New Starship Plans for Private Trips to the Moon, Mars and Beyond – Space.com

BOCA CHICA, Texas Elon Musk has a Starship, and one day he expects it will help SpaceX reach other worlds.

Standing beneath a towering Starship Mk1, a prototype for SpaceX's massive reusable launch system, Musk laid out his plan for interplanetary travel at the company's South Texas test site here on Saturday (Sept. 28) the 11th anniversary of the first successful orbital launch of SpaceX's first rocket, the Falcon 1.

The new version of Starship (and its Super Heavy booster) will be able to carry up to 100 people to the moon, Mars or other destinations in space or around Earth, he said. It will stand 387 feet (118 meters) tall and be completely reusable, with quick turnarounds.

This is the rocket that will launch the billionaire Japanese entrepreneur Yusaku Maezawa and a handful of artists on a trip around the moon in the 2020s. SpaceX unveiled that planned space tourist trip last year (but did not disclose how much Maezawa paid).

"This is, I think, the most inspiring thing I have ever seen," Musk told a crowd of about 200 SpaceX employees, guests and reporters at the company's site near Boca Chica Village, just outside of Brownsville. "Wow, what an incredible job by such a great team to build this incredible vehicle. I'm so proud to work with such a great team."

Musk later thanked Maezawa for his support. The billionaire has contributed an unspecified amount to SpaceX to aid Starship's development.

Related: SpaceX's Starship and Super Heavy Mars Rocket in Pictures

Musk has long said that the main goal of SpaceX, since its founding in 2002, has been to help make humanity a multiplanet species. The company has developed reusable Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets, as well as reusable Dragon cargo capsules and a new Crew Dragon ship for astronauts. It has launchpads in Florida, California and now Boca Chica, where the company broke ground on its test site in 2014.

But Mars, Musk has said, has remained the true objective.

"This is the fastest path to a self-sustaining city on Mars," he said Saturday night, referring to the Starship-Super Heavy architecture.

SpaceX's Starship concept has undergone a kind of rocket evolution in the three years since Musk first unveiled it to the world in September 2016 at the International Astronautical Union meeting in Mexico.

At that meeting, Musk unveiled what he called the the Interplanetary Transport System, or ITS, for Mars colonization. The ITS called for a fully reusable spacecraft (with two fins) and booster that would stand 400 feet (122 m) high when assembled. Its first stage would have 42 next-generation Raptor engines, and the booster would be 40 feet (12 m) wide. The spacecraft would have nine Raptors. (SpaceX's Falcon 9 rockets have nine Merlin engines on their first stage. Falcon Heavy first stages have 27 Merlins.)

Musk updated the design in 2017, calling it the Big Falcon Rocket, or BFR for short. That plan called for a launch system that would stand 348 feet (106 meters) tall and 30 feet (9 m) wide. Its booster would have 31 Raptor engines, while the spacecraft atop it would have six.

Then, in 2018, Musk unveiled yet another design (and the Starship name): a sleek, stainless-steel spacecraft with three tail fins that would stand taller than its 2017 precursor, with a height of 387 feet (118 m). The spacecraft would still be powered by six Raptor engines, with up to 37 Raptors powering the booster (now called Super Heavy).

The switch to 301 stainless steel from a lightweight, but expensive, carbon fiber composite material, was a turning point, Musk said. The steel gets stronger the colder it gets, making it perfect for flights in the cold depths of space. It also has a higher melting point, making it more resilient during the fiery reentry through Earth's atmosphere.

It's also way cheaper, about 2% the cost of carbon fiber, he added.

"Steel was the best design decision on this whole thing," Musk said.

This latest design has held to the present day; SpaceX is still shooting for a 387-foot-tall Starship-Super Heavy stack, with six Raptors on the spacecraft. The number of engines on Super Heavy could vary from flight to flight; Musk said the rocket has space for up to 37 Raptors, and each mission will probably require at least 24.

"Starship will allow us to inhabit other worlds," Musk wrote on Twitter Friday (Sept. 27). "To make life as we know it interplanetary."

With the design nailed down, SpaceX plans to move fast.

"This is going to sound totally nuts but I think we want to try to reach orbit in less than six months," Musk said. "Provided the rate of design improvement and manufacturing improvement continues to be exponential, I think that is accurate to within a few months."

.And people could start flying aboard the vehicle in the next year or so if the test program continues to go well, he added. That appears to be an extremely accelerated program, given that SpaceX has not yet launched astronauts on its Crew Dragon spacecraft for NASA.

While Musk and SpaceX have been lauded by their ambitious push for a Starship capable of deep-space travel, the road has not always been smooth.

As the company ramped up its testing with a smaller rocket, called Starhopper, frequent road closures, launch hazard advisories and other side effects of the program sparked ire among some residents of Boca Chica Village, a nearby beachside community. SpaceX's Starship Mk1, for example, is just dozens of feet from a main travel route, Boca Chica Boulevard, that leads to the village.

Earlier on Saturday, the boulevard was the scene of a rotating gallery of onlookers and SpaceX fans posing for selfies and photos with the Starship Mk1, even as SpaceX put the finishing touches on the 165-foot (50 m) vehicle.

"I can sum up my first impression like this: 'Ooo, Shiny!'" said Roy Paul, 78, of Mebane, North Carolina, who flew to Houston and drove over 7 hours with a niece, nephew and their five children from Beaumont to see the Starship Mk1. He's a dedicated space fan who goes as IonMars on NASASpaceflight.com forums.

This month, SpaceX offered to buy out some Boca Chica Village residents after a short 500-foot (150 m) test sparked a brush fire at the test site, according to Business Insider.

On Saturday, Musk confirmed that SpaceX has sought to buy out some Boca Chica residents. If SpaceX's flight test rate holds, then Starship launches may become more disruptive to the hamlet's residents, he said.

Then there are SpaceX's other customers.

NASA is still waiting for SpaceX to complete the Crew Dragon spacecraft that will fly astronauts to and from the International Space Station. The space agency has picked SpaceX (and another company, Boeing) to provide commercial crew flights to the station.

While SpaceX did launch an unpiloted Crew Dragon test flight to the space station this year, a subsequent abort system test failed, leading to the destruction of the vehicle. SpaceX aims to resume abort system tests later this year ahead of the first crewed test flight.

NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine, it seems, is not happy with the years-long delays of Crew Dragon, as well as Boeing's Starliner spacecraft, especially after seeing SpaceX build Starship Mk1 this year ahead of its own test flight.

"I am looking forward to the SpaceX announcement tomorrow," Bridenstine wrote on Twitter Friday. "In the meantime, Commercial Crew is years behind schedule. NASA expects to see the same level of enthusiasm focused on the investments of the taxpayer. It's time to deliver."

On Saturday night, Musk assured that SpaceX is focused on Crew Dragon for NASA, as well as flights for other customers. Only about 5% of SpaceX's resources are devoted to the Starship program, he said.

Meanwhile, the city of Brownsville, remains hopeful that SpaceX's presence and future launches from Boca Chica could be a boon for the community.

The city's mayor, Trey Mendez, a lawyer and native of Brownsville, said that in the five years SpaceX has been at the Boca Chica site, the area has seen some tourists come to gawk at the rockets, but such visits have not had a significant impact on the city's economy.

That could change, Mendez said, if SpaceX sets up regular space launches from Boca Chica. But if the area just stays a test site, then it may not be as big an impact as the city would like.

"Definitely I can say that the community is overall excited with the opportunities that the space industry brings. And we're excited to learn more about SpaceX's plans out here," Mendez told Space.com just hours before Musk's presentation. "I certainly hope that it is something that will have a measurable impact for our city, because I would definitely love to have that."

Space.com Senior Space Writer Mike Wall contributed to this story. This story has been updated to include new comments by Elon Musk from his Starship update.

Email Tariq Malik attmalik@space.comor follow him@tariqjmalik. Follow us@SpacedotcomandFacebook.

Need more space? You can get 5 issues of our partner "All About Space" Magazine for $5 for the latest amazing news from the final frontier!

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rHEALTH ONE Blood Analyzers Delivered to NASA for International Space Station – PR Web

We have worked with NASA...to develop a small volume blood analysis technology for space...

CAMBRIDGE, Mass. (PRWEB) September 30, 2019

rHEALTH LLC, and its affiliate DNA Medicine Institute, Inc., today announced that rHEALTH ONE blood analyzers have been delivered to NASA and its prime contractor Zin Technologies for spaceflight qualification. The technology will undergo a rigorous set of tests as outlined in NASAs International Space Station: Commercial-Off-The-Shelf Certification Process Work Instruction document.

The work instruction outlines the process of proper spaceflight qualification of commercial technologies. The rHEALTH ONE analyzer will be subject to payload verification, safety, and quality tests. The successful certification of the rHEALTH ONE devices will pave the path for a technology demonstration onboard the International Space Station.

This is an exciting milestone for the rHEALTH technology. We have worked with NASA closely to develop a small volume blood analysis technology for space, with dual-use applications in our homes and diverse medical settings. The technology empowers astronauts and individuals to be able to diagnose themselves, anywhere. We welcome the opportunity to put the technology through its paces, under the most demanding conditions, said Dr. Eugene Chan, CEO.

The rHEALTH ONE is a small, cytometry-based blood analyzer that uses tiny blood samples (< 10 L). At 1.5 kg, it weighs less than most laptops and uses minimal power (< 2.5W), drawn from a single USB port. The technologys critical components, including its optical module and sample loading system, have been successfully tested in zero gravity onboard parabolic flights with NASA. The device analyzes cells and the Companys nanoscale test strips in a multiplexed manner to provide results in minutes.

About rHEALTHrHEALTH is a company focused on the development and commercialization of its Diagnose Yourself, AnywhereTM technology. rHEALTHs innovations consists of the rHEALTH diagnostic platform, which enables diverse laboratory test classes in a single small volume blood sample intended as a point-of-care solution, the SKYE Sensor, a wireless wearable providing comprehensive real-time vitals monitoring and CHAS, a user-friendly mobile application. For more information, visit http://www.rhealth.com.

About DNA Medicine InstituteDNA Medicine Institute (DMI) is a biomedical incubator focused on advancing patient care, alleviating human suffering, and treating disease through innovation. Its technology is subject of work funded by NASA, National Institutes of Health, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. DMI leverages substantial expertise in interdisciplinary science and engineering to solve challenging problems. For more information, visit http://www.dnamedinstitute.com.

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Mice That Spend a Month in Space Were Able to Reproduce Once They Got Back to Earth – Universe Today

A team of Japanese researchers have used sperm from mice that spent time aboard the International Space Station (ISS) to fertilize female mice back on Earth. While previous research has shown that freeze-dried mouse sperm stored in space can experience radiation damage, these results show that the sperm from live mice may not suffer the same damage.

While the freeze-dried mouse sperm in a previous study was stored in space for 9 months and was damaged by radiation, the live mice in this study spent only 35 days on the ISS. There were 12 male mice in this study, and some of them experienced microgravity for the duration, while others were kept in artificial gravity. When they returned to Earth, researchers used the mice sperm to artificially inseminate female mice that had never been to space. All of the offspring were healthy.

Radiation on the ISS is about 100 times stronger than on Earth. But not only did the offspring display no negative effects from having one parent spend time in that radiation environment, the male reproductive organs appeared undamaged as well.

We conclude that short-term stays inouter spacedo not cause overt defects in the physiological function of male reproductive organs, sperm function, and offspring viability, says the study published Tuesday in the journalScientific Reports. The study is titled Male mice, caged in the International Space Station for 35 days, sire healthy offspring.

The male mice were examined thoroughly, down to the molecular level, to determine what, if any, damage they received while in space. The scientists examined the testes, the epididymides, and the accessory glands once the mice were returned to Earth. Both the artificial gravity (AG) and the microgravity (MG) mice showed decreased accessory gland weight, but there was no change in gene expression.

The study also found that the sperm from both the AG and MG males fertilized female eggs in vitro at about the same rate as ground control (GC) males. When those pups were born, there was no difference between the pups from AG, MG, and GC sperm. Also, all of the pups experienced similar growth rates after they were born.

The researchers concluded that mouse sperm from males who spent a short amount of time in space experienced no ill effects.

This research adds to previous Japanese research from 2017 that saw freeze-dried mouse sperm spend nine months in space. While that sperm showed some radiation damage, that damage didnt seem to affect the pups born from it. In fact, those mice went on to breed more mice which also showed no damage.

Thereve been other experiments on mice reproduction in space and after exposure to space. But in some of those experiments, large numbers of the mice died due to what the authors call payload-related issues. For this reason, the authors designed and built special habitat systems for their study, ensuring that the mice survived the mission. The habitats also allowed the researchers to simulate microgravity for one of the groups of mice.

While human reproduction hasnt been studied in-depth, there is some data. Male astronauts have been able to impregnate their spouses almost immediately after returning from space. And though many female astronauts are nearing the end of their biological limits for producing offspring by the time they become astronauts, a 2005 study showed that female astronauts gave birth to 17 babies after returning from space. There was a high miscarriage rate for female astronauts, but thats probably related to their ages.

Scientists have been studying the effects of space on reproduction in anticipation of greater numbers of people spending time in space. So far theyve conducted studies into birds, sea urchins, fish, newts, frogs, rats, and mice. Those studies have produced different results, including male and female rats who went into space together and failed to reproduce, or even mate.

The era where people can easily go into space is coming, the study says. Studies of the effects of space environment on the reproductive system are necessary to prevent undesirable effects in the next generation.

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EU migrant crisis: France cannot take in all the misery in the world says Macron – Express.co.uk

Mr Macron told Europe 1 radio in an interview from the United Nations in New York, where he is attending the annual General Assembly: I maintain that France cannot take in all the misery in the world. The share it does take in it must look after in the best possible way.For this, we must organise ourselves better because France cannot welcome everyone if it wants to be a good host. Mr Macron also took a tough line on so-called economic migrants, drawing a firm distinction between them and refugees fleeing war, famine or persecution.

He said that while it was Frances duty to protect refugees, his government would ramp up rapid deportations of those who do not qualify for asylum and entered the country illegally.

Mr Macron also called for a common EU asylum policy, saying: Were inefficient and inhumane in France and in Europe.

We need to speed up the overhaul of the Schengen area and of the Dublin system in other words, we need common asylum laws and an efficient, common deportation policy.

There is not enough cooperation in Europe and we need to look at this migratory phenomenon and take decisions.

Stressing that France had always been a country of migration, the French President added: I think it would be a mistake to say that the question of migration is a taboo or just something to discuss when there are crises.

Earlier this month, Mr Macron hardened his stance on immigration, arguing that his government had to put a stop to its lax approach to prevent voters from shifting to the populist far right.

By claiming to be humanist we are sometimes too lax, he told his ministers and ruling party representatives, complaining that Frances asylum laws were being misused by people smugglers and people who manipulate the system.

France needs an asylum system that is more efficient and more humane, he added.

Referring to the see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil maxim represented by three monkeys with their hands over their eyes, ears and mouth, Mr Macron continued: Were like the three little monkeys, we dont want to see.

But Mr Macrons critics remain unconvinced by his efforts to curb illegal immigration.

Mr Macrons immigration record is bad, conservative senator Grard Larcher told Europe 1 later on Wednesday.

He added: What we need are concrete action plans.

France last year received a record 122,743 asylum requests, up 22 percent compared to 2017.

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EU migrant crisis: France cannot take in all the misery in the world says Macron - Express.co.uk