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Bitcoin Price Falls $1,400 in One Week Is the Bear Market Back? – Cointelegraph

Posted on February 29, 2020 by Danzig

This week the equity markets experienced their worst week in 12 years and as this meltdown took place the crypto market also took a hit.

Bitcoin (BTC) and the cryptocurrency market saw a significant selloff this week and this outcome is relatively reasonable given that people sell their assets out of fear of potential economic instability. Other safe-haven assets like gold and silver also saw a massive selloff on Friday.

Are the crypto markets going to find support in the coming weeks, or will we see a continued downtrend in momentum?

Crypto market daily performance. Source: Coin360

The price of Bitcoin found resistance at the $10,400 level, after which a test of the $9,400 support was heavily needed. The $9,400 level was unable to provide sustainable support and as the price fell through it this caused a significant selloff throughout the crypto market.

BTC USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The sell-off led to the next support area at $8,200-8,400 and many horizontal levels are lining up here, providing potential temporary support and space for a relief rally.

However, for the short term, many believe that the upwards momentum is out of the markets as the price of Bitcoin is making a lower low (a key indicator for downwards momentum) on the daily timeframe.

Does this mean that the entire crypto market will reverse course and enter a bearish trend? Not at all. The price of Bitcoin is still 27% higher as on the 1st of January, which makes Bitcoin one of the best-performing assets of the year.

BTC USD 1-week chart. Source: TradingView

The weekly chart is currently resting on an exciting MA (Moving Average), namely the 21-week MA. The previous bull cycle held this level as support towards the bull peak in December 2017, which makes this an interesting indicator for bulls to hold on to.

If the price could find support at this level, it could mean a continuation of bullish momentum in the coming period.

BTC USD 1-week chart. Source: TradingView

The weekly chart also clearly shows the massive selloff of the past week. However, its currently resting on potential support. Holding the green zone around $8,400 would line up with the 21-WMA and possibly grant a relief rally.

For sustained upwards momentum, its crucial that a breakthrough of the past high at $10,400 takes place but such a move could take some time. The market must find support before these levels can be targeted.

If Bitcoin price cant find support at $8,400, the next level to target is at $7,500-$7,700.

Total market capitalization cryptocurrency chart. Source: TradingView

The total market capitalization for cryptocurrencies was unable to break above $300 billion and also couldnt find support at $250 billion so further downwards momentum was expected.

Currently, an exciting level is approaching as the 21-WMA is also showing up on this chart. Through the whole bull cycle of 2016-2017, the 21-WMA granted support on the total market capitalization as a whole. Providing support in this area would give bulls arguments for upwards momentum.

Aside from the 21-WMA, a crucial horizontal level can be seen here. During 2018 and 2019, the market capitalization found support at the $225 billion level several times. Showing support here would grant potential upward continuation, as the total market capitalization had been making higher lows since the bottom in December 2018.

Total altcoin cryptocurrency market capitalization chart. Source: TradingView

The altcoin market capitalization shows a similar outlook as the rest of the market. There was a massive rejection at the horizontal level at $115 billion, through which the altcoins are searching for support also.

The next significant level is found around $73-$75 billion, which is similar to the $225 billion of total market capitalization. Since the bottom in December 2018, altcoins have been consistently made higher lows, warranting a new upwards trend to occur. Finding support around the $73 billion levels would warrant another higher low and potential continuation upwards.

If the scenario turned bullish, a relief rally towards $9,200-9,400 would be the first step. To do this, Bitcoin price needs to find support at $8,250-$8,400 in order to sustain some upwards momentum to retest previous support levels for resistance.

BTC USD 12-hour bullish scenario chart. Source: TradingView

The next important question investors will ask will be: Can Bitcoin price break through the resistance and continue its upward momentum? If the answer is no, a likely retest of the $8,200-$8,400 area is next to occur.

However, breaking the resistance around $9,200-$9,400 and making it support would open the door for a move to the next levels near the $10,400 highs of two weeks ago.

And finally, finding support around this area would confirm the 21-WMA to be supported again, which is a massive indicator for bull/bear momentum.

BTC USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Theres no clear guideline for a bearish scenario at this point, but the chart is showing several perspectives. What traders should look for are potential bearish retests. If the price of Bitcoin rallies upwards without any volume and rejects at $8,950 or even $9,175, a bearish retest is confirmed, and the price should trend further down.

If such a bearish retest occurs, the price will likely retest the support around $8,200-$8,400 one more time.

However, the more support gets tested, the weaker it becomes. Heavy retests of this support would typically induce further continuation downwards to $7,500-$7,700 as the next primary support after this zone.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin Price Falls $1,400 in One Week Is the Bear Market Back? - Cointelegraph

How Much $100 of Bitcoin Could Be Worth When the Last Coin is Mined – Bitcoinist

Posted on February 29, 2020 by Danzig

Everybody knows that one day Bitcoin mining will eventually cease, and the last coin will be mined. The date for this is expected to be around the year 2140. So what could an investment of $100 now be worth in 120 years time?

To estimate the price of Bitcoin well into the future we need to take a look at growth models for the cryptocurrency. The two most well-known are Parabolic Travs Parabolic super trend price growth model, and Plan Bs Stock to Flow price model (S2F).

Well also have to take into account that if hyperbitcoinization does occur, and Bitcoin becomes global money used by everyone, and no other kind of currency exists at all, there are still limits to Bitcoins price growth.

Hal Finney predicted Bitcoin to have a price of 10 million per coin back in 2009. In Finneys estimate he simply took the estimates for world household wealth and divided it by 21 million coins.

He arrived at $10 million per coin. Decrypt revisited the idea, and recalculated with updated numbers and came to a price of $18 million per coin. Bitcoins parabolic growth can only keep rising until there is no more wealth whose value can be converted to Satoshis.

Parabolic Travs parabolic super trend model closely correlates with Plan Bs stock to flow model. While many investors discount the idea of parabolic growth, Bitcoin has already grown 2,232,111,011.11% since Marti Malmi sold the first Bitcoins for fiat currency in 2009, to its all time high of $20K in 2017.

Bitcoin follows an S-curve of technological adoption, because while it is a currency it is also new technology, which is being adopted by new users at S-curve adoption rates.

See the similarities in Travs parabolic price model and S-curves of new technology adoption? They are both parabolic. We may see BTC follow the steeper curve exhibited by smart phones and the internet.

Stock to flow is how many years it would take to produce the current total supply of an asset. Golds stock to flow is 62. It would take 62 years of mining to produce the current world supply.

Plan Bs S2F further supports this parabolic growth with the model he provided to show the impact Bitcoins halvings have on price. Bitcoins S2F is 25, currently but will be halved to an S2F of 50, much closer to gold.

On the graph above you can see the parabolic price increase overlaid with the reduction in block rewards every 210,000 blocks (roughly 4 years).

Plan Bs model predicts a trillion dollar Bitcoin market cap after the upcoming halving, or a projected price of $55,000 per BTC.

Following Plan Bs model, Digitalek.net projects the price of BTC in 2025 to be $1,215,730.5 per coin.

Credit Suisse estimates global household wealth to be $360 trillion in USD. Dividing this number by 21 million Bitcoin puts us at a price of $17,142,857 per BTC.

However, Chainalysis estimates that as much as 4 million BTC have been lost, so lets calculate for 17 million BTC. Using Finneys calculation with 17 million BTC instead of 21 puts us at $21,176,470.58.

Assuming hyperbitcoinization occurs by 2140, $100 dollars of BTC at todays current price of $8880, would be 0.01126 in Satoshis. These same Satoshis could have a projected value of $238,373.77 by the time the last Bitcoin is mined in 2140.

How much do you think 1 BTC will be worth in 2140? Let us know in the comments!

Images via Shutterstock, charts by Market Realist, Planb, HCBurger1, Tradingview @ParabolicInvestor

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How Much $100 of Bitcoin Could Be Worth When the Last Coin is Mined - Bitcoinist

Finnish Authorities Have $15M in Seized Bitcoin But Don’t Want to Sell It – CoinDesk – Coindesk

Posted on February 29, 2020 by Danzig

Finland's customs agency has been struggling with what to do with a horde of bitcoin (BTC) it fears could end up back in the hands of criminals if sold off.

Finnish Customs, known locally as Tulli, has been trying to offload a total of 1,666 bitcoin for several years, even drawing up a plan in September 2018 for a public auction of the digital coins. But officials have concerns that a sale would attract the wrong kind of attention and could even put the agency's own security at risk.

Speaking to local media, Tulli Director Pekka Pylkkanen said: "From our point of view, the problems are specifically related to the risk of money laundering. The buyers of [cryptocurrency] rarely use them for normal endeavors."

Tulli confiscated the bitcoin trove following a successful bust of an online dark market in September 2016. At the time, bitcoin traded at around $570, meaning the 1,666 BTC was worth approximately $950,000. With prices now just under $9,200, it's worth closer to $15 million, according to CoinDesk's Bitcoin Price Index.

At bitcoin's all-time peak near $20,000 in December 2017, the cache would have been worth almost $33 million.

Tulli isn't the only government authority having to decide what to do with confiscated bitcoin, usually with dollar-values many times greater than when they were first seized. The U.S. government, which has seized hundreds of millions of dollars worth of bitcoin over the years, has hosted multiple online auctions for confiscated bitcoin.

Bitcoin confiscated by the Belgian authorities was sold by an online auction house in early 2019. Later that year, U.K. police used the same auctioneer to sell more than $290,000 worth of cryptocurrency it had seized from a teenage hacker.

In 2018, the Finnish government barred customs officials from trying to sell seized bitcoin on exchanges or trading platforms, instead ordering the agency to hold any confiscated digital assets in a secure cold storage solution.

Pylkkanen's claim that most crypto holders use them for illicit purposes isn't supported by the numbers. A November report from blockchain analytics firm Elliptic suggested $829 million in bitcoin, just 0.5 percent of all transactions, were linked to the dark web.

The leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups.

Finnish Authorities Have $15M in Seized Bitcoin But Don't Want to Sell It - CoinDesk - Coindesk

Why Is This Peter Thiel-Backed Startup Mining Bitcoin In West Texas? – Forbes

Posted on February 29, 2020 by Danzig

Cattle graze at the Buffalo Gap Wind Power project near Abilene, Texas.

To make money mining cryptocurrencies you need fast microprocessors and cheap electricity to run them. It also helps to be in a cold climate, because a roomful of computers puts out a lot of heat, which slows them down. Thats why the worlds biggest miners tend to set up shop in places like Iceland, with its plentiful geothermal power, or Washington state and upstate New York, which enjoy cheap hydropower.

Thats why it seemed odd that a crypto-mining startup called Layer1 Technologies chose as its center of operations an empty part of west Texas, which suffers through 90-degree-plus days for nearly half the year. Even in February it can get hot. I was shvitzing, says Alex Liegl, CEO of Layer1, who was out there recently 100 miles west of Midland setting up the companys first two bitcoin factories 20-by-8 shipping containers chock full of bitcoin miners. If they were air-cooled, the processors would burn up, he says. But theyre not. Instead, the mining machines are immersed in vats of liquid a non-conductive solution that keeps them cool.

Why go to the trouble? Because the real draw of west Texas is its cheap power. Were not talking about the Texas mainstays of oil and gas, but rather wind. Texas is by far the biggest wind power generator in the United States, with 29,000 megawatts installed and 7,600 mw under construction. If the Lone Star state were its own country it would rank fifth in wind power worldwide. When the gusts come at night the power generated is often so plentiful that grid operators have to pay customers to use it.

This gets crypto miners excited. Its the cheapest power in the world, at scale, says Liegl, 27, who co-founded Layer1 in 2017 years ago alongside Jakov Dolic, who previously cofounded whats said to be the worlds biggest bitcoin cloud mining service provider, called Genesis Mining.

Last year Layer1 received a $50 million cash infusion from its v.c. investors led by billionaire Peter Thiel, alongside Shasta Ventures and Digital Currency Group. That raise valued Layer1 at $200 million, and gave Liegl the capital he needed to acquire an entire electric substation capable of handling 100 megawatts, and 30 acres of land on which they aim to install a village consisting of dozens of their container-based bitcoin factories, each of which draws 2.5 mw (enough to power more than 1,000 homes).

Liegls strategy is to make Layer1 independent of any third-party suppliers or service providers. That way he can be certain that even when bitcoin prices surge and suppliers hike their prices, Layer1s economics will be insulated. Thats why the company is manufacturing its own processors and outfitting its own containers in factories in China and Croatia. We want to avoid all edge risks and be at the point where no one can take away our advantage.

Another startup: Peter Thiel and Elon Musk at the launch of PayPal, 2000.

Theres a power arbitrage opportunity as well. In the summertime when air conditioners in Dallas, Houston and Austin are going full tilt, Texas electricity prices sometimes surge to nosebleed levels. When that happens, Layer1 will be able to make more money by shutting off its mining machines and allowing the power to flow through its substation to the grid. We can stabilize the grid by selling capacity for curtailment at the push of a button, says Liegl.

Liegl grew up in Germany then studied math and philosophy at Stanford. He was first exposed to bitcoin during a stint working on the special investments desk at the Stanford Management Company (which boasts a $27 billion endowment). He describes Peter Thiel as an invigorating conversationalist, who traces the logic tree then proceeds and who sees bitcoin as a useful hedge against central bank policy missteps. Liegl credits Thiels investment as enabling Layer1 to gain a first mover advantage on their liquid cooled mining machines. Its easier to keep liquid chilled than air, and Liegl claims that Layer1 is able to overclock its processors, essentially running them at twice the rate they would be able to in an air-conditioned space. Whats more, the liquid keeps away the dust, which along with tumbleweeds is in no short supply.

Liegl is convinced that his machines will avoid obsolescence for at least 5 years because chip cycles have lengthened. Chips have little differentiation now; cheaper electricity and more efficient cooling is most important.

Layer1 wont say how many bitcoin it expects to mine in Texas this year. Liegl says theyre profitable enough that hes already thinking about pursuing an IPO in order to scale nonlinearly and potentially fill the vacant position of being the bitcoin mining company. He envisions in time having enough machines to consume 1 gigawatt of power.

And what happens if they run out of cheap wind? My personal dream is to own a nuclear plant in the future.

Why Is This Peter Thiel-Backed Startup Mining Bitcoin In West Texas? - Forbes

Virgin Galactic CEO: Everyone Should Have 1% of Their Assets in Bitcoin – Cointelegraph

Posted on February 29, 2020 by Danzig

Chamath Palihapitiya, the billionaire chairman of spaceflight company Virgin Galactic, has recommended that everyone hold Bitcoin (BTC) as a form of crisis insurance.

Speaking on CNBCs Squawk Box, Palihapitiya said he believes that everybody should probably have 1% of their assets in Bitcoin.

Palihapitiya said that Bitcoin comprises a fantastic hedge, as every other financial instrument is correlated [...] except Bitcoin, which is fundamentally uncorrelated.

When you see the amount of leverage the financial industry is running, and you think about all these dislocations and all these exogenous things that are happening that you can't predict, there's a lot of risk to the downside, and it will be great that an average individual citizen, of any country in the world, has an uncorrelated hedge.

However the billionaire former Facebook executive rejects the theory that economic woes resulting from the coronavirus outbreak will drive the crypto markets into a bull trend.

I dont think when [...] you wake up and see a coronavirus scare and the Dow down 2,000, you should not be going in and buying Bitcoin - that is an idiotic strategy, he said.

The Bitcoin is a safe haven narrative has certainly taken a battering this week with BTC tumbling up to 13% in 36 hours in tandem with the stock markets due to fears over the impact of the coronavirus. In contrast gold has performed well in its traditional role as a safe haven, gaining 0.5% in recent days to trade for $1,648.82 per ounce.

Palihapitiya suggests that a better approach than trying to profit off short term market trends is for investors to put a small percentage of their net worth into Bitcoin as insurance.

I think a reasonable strategy is to say 1% of my net worth should be in something completely uncorrelated to the world and how the world works. You quietly over some period of time accumulate a position and then just never look at it again and hope that that insurance under the mattress never has to come due. But, if it does, it will protect you.

Palihapitiya is a longtime Bitcoin supporter and his company, Virgin Galactic, began accepting Bitcoin for its $250,000 spaceflights duringNovember 2013, becoming one of most high-profile companies to accept BTC at the time. Palihapitiya told CNBC that it has received 7,957 registrations of interest since conducting the first flight in December 2018, which equates to to $2.39 billion in potential ticket sales.

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Virgin Galactic CEO: Everyone Should Have 1% of Their Assets in Bitcoin - Cointelegraph

How to Protect Bitcoin for Your Heirs With the Push of a ‘Dead Man’s Button’ – CoinDesk – Coindesk

Posted on February 29, 2020 by Danzig

What happens to your bitcoin after you die?

This is more than just a philosophical question: It could involve a substantial amount of currency.

The question of crypto and the Great Beyond is what prompted about 20 or so developers to get together in London recently to experiment with repurposing the current lightning protocol to send private messages as a dead man's button, a system that can't be censored and would keep your crypto safe for your heirs.

Lightning Labs infrastructure engineer Joost Jager has been exploring using lightning for messaging over the past year. At the Advancing Bitcoin conference in London, Jager hosted a workshop to explore building a dead man's button with lightning. The mission was to show that lightning can be used as messaging system as well as a payment network.

These buttons are not new. At the workshop, Jager noted Edward Snowden, the National Security Agency whistleblower, used one in case he died before journalists could reveal the contents of the documents he wanted to make public.

The goal of the workshop was to explore one of lightnings relatively new features, "keysend" (formerly known as spontaneous payments). Its so experimental it isn't even described in the lightning specifications yet. But it does offer a way to send data (called "custom records" in LND, the lightning implementation Jager works on) along with a transaction.

Heres how it might work: Imagine a user who wants to pass on a bitcoin (BTC) inheritance. That user would communicate with a "service," pushing a "button" that would send a message every week or so to signify that the user is still alive.

If the button isn't pressed one week, it is assumed the bitcoin user is dead or incapacitated and it's time for the bitcoin to be passed on, at which point the service automatically dispenses a "secret," which can be used to retrieve the crypto.

Beyond that, Jager thought some additional features should be added, even if they could make the program trickier to implement. The program should maintain the privacy of the sender and the receiver, he said, and should allow the sender to get proof the service still has the secret.

Developers split into small groups to think about how to build a service that would meet all of these and other goals. The workshop developers came up with some ideas, which Jager published to GitHub. He included a rough implementation, which puts several of the ideas into practice, though he said the code "is extremely limited and does not implement everything described."

This design isn't necessarily the best way forward, Jager said, but it's a proof of concept he hopes can inspire other implementations.

Imagination versus loss

Jager told CoinDesk the "primary" reason he chose the dead man's button for the workshop was it is complex enough of a use case that it can show off what lightning can do as a messaging system.

But he also thinks a dead man's button could be a real use case for lightning down the road.

"Many people try to arrange their crypto inheritance and need to make up their minds about who they trust. This could be an alternative, assuming that wrinkles are ironed out and the whole process is hidden underneath a user-friendly shell," he said. This is "unlikely to happen short term, but I hope people see the possibilities."

Lawyer Pamela Morgan, an expert on crypto inheritance and author of a book dedicated to helping people develop a plan to pass on their crypto, agrees with Jager the technology is far from ready. But she said she would not encourage users to put any money into any experimental dead man's button systems just yet.

"Dead man's switches are fun projects that excite our imaginations but fail to solve the complex and multidisciplinary challenges of crypto asset inheritance distribution. Relying on such solutions for something as important as inheritance is likely to cause catastrophic loss," she told CoinDesk.

However, she said the technology has promise. Since few crypto enthusiasts have any sort of a plan for what to do with their currencies after they are gone, she's happy to see people exploring ways to make crypto inheritance a more common practice.

"If adding a dead man's switch makes more people actually do inheritance planning for their bitcoin, then I'm all for it because so few people actually do anything," she told CoinDesk.

In the meantime, Jager is pressing on with beefing up lightning's messaging system to make it easier to send messages across the network.

Correction (Feb. 24, 22:52 UTC): This article has been updated to clarify the intent of the workshop.

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How to Protect Bitcoin for Your Heirs With the Push of a 'Dead Man's Button' - CoinDesk - Coindesk

Bitcoin is Recovering, But This Key Data Shows Bears Are Still Well in Control – newsBTC

Posted on February 29, 2020 by Danzig

Bitcoin is currently recovering from the $8,512 weekly low against the US Dollar. However, BTC price is still facing many key hurdles near $9,000 and it could resume its decline.

This week, we saw a strong downward move in bitcoin below $9,000 and $8,800 against the US Dollar. BTC price even traded below the $8,680 support level and settled well below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

A new weekly low is formed near $8,512 and the price is currently correcting losses. It surpassed the $8,700 resistance level, and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $9,281 high to $8,512 low.

On the upside, there are many resistances forming near the $9,000 and $9,200 levels. More importantly, there is likely a bearish flag forming with support near $8,735 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

Bitcoin Price

Bitcoin is currently struggling near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $9,281 high to $8,512 low. The first key resistance is near the flag resistance at $9,000.

If the bulls gain strength above $9,000, the next important breakout zone is visible near the $9,200 level and the 100 hourly SMA. Therefore, the price must climb above the $9,000 and $9,200 levels to start a fresh increase in the coming sessions.

If bitcoin fails to correct above the $9,000 and $9,200 resistance levels, it is likely to resume its decline. An initial support is near the flag trend line at $8,735.

A successful break below the flag support could open the doors for a fresh decline below $8,700 and $8,600. In the mentioned case, the price could even decline below the $8,512 swing low.

The next major support and buy zone is near the $8,200 level (as discussed yesterday using the daily chart). In the medium term, bitcoin price is likely to bounce back as long as there is no daily close below $8,000.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD The MACD is slowly moving in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) The RSI for BTC/USD is currently just below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels $8,735 followed by $8,500.

Major Resistance Levels $9,000, $9,200 and $9,280.

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Bitcoin is Recovering, But This Key Data Shows Bears Are Still Well in Control - newsBTC

Derivatives tell an interesting story of the recent Bitcoin price drop – CryptoSlate

Posted on February 29, 2020 by Danzig

Research by Jesus Rodriguez and Lucas Outumuro ofIntoTheBlock

Derivatives are becoming an important element of the crypto markets. With more exchanges introducing products such as futures, perpetual swaps or options, the influence of derivatives in crypto markets has been increasing linearly. With the increase in derivative trading comes more data and with more data the opportunity of producing richer analytics that evaluates derivative products to extrapolate insights about the behavior of crypto assets.

From an analytical standpoint, derivatives are an incredible source of intelligence in capital markets and crypto is not an exception. For starters, derivatives are a clear indicator of the market sentiment in crypto assets as well as an accurate descriptor of behaviors such as hedging and speculation.

Additionally, derivatives are one of the elements that can contribute to the eventual rationality of crypto markets and become a key indicator for important aspects such as risk monitoring and portfolio management. In the current, still immature, state of the crypto markets, derivatives can have a disproportionate effect in price fluctuations which make it an even more interesting aspect to consider when studying crypto assets. If we look at this weeks movements in the Bitcoin price through the lens of derivative contracts, we can extrapolate some very interesting insights.

In the last seven days, Bitcoin has experienced a strong bearish momentum dropping over $10,000. The market behavior is attributed to macro-factors such as the impact of the coronavirus and its negative impact in global capital markets. However, crypto derivative contracts such as futures and perpetual swaps help paint a more complete narrative of the current market turmoil. Specifically, the indicators of volume, open interest, turnover ratio and basis are incredibly useful tools to comprehend Bitcoins recent price drop and what may follow.

Perpetual swaps, which essentially function as futures contracts without an expiration date, have quickly been adopted as the crypto space go-to derivative contract. During the recent price drop, Bitcoin perpetual swaps volume reached a yearly high on February 26, surpassing $14 billion traded within 24 hours. Although this is a very large number, it is important to take into account that volumes are a function of leverage. With the option to select leverage of 100x (and sometimes even higher) in popular derivatives exchanges, perpetual swaps volumes have quickly surpassed spot volumes for several exchanges like Binance and Huobi.

While price and volume are the two main metrics of which indicators are derived for traditional technical analysis, derivatives trading introduces a third elemental factor: open interest. Open interest is the total amount of outstanding investor positions, usually measured as the dollar amount of open contracts in the case of cryptocurrency derivatives. In other words, open interest reflects the cumulative amount of open positions, regardless of the direction of the trades (includes both long and short data).

For example, lets say a $100 million long contract is opened at a price of $10,000 with a liquidation price of $9,000 at this moment both volume and open interest would increase by $100 million. (To clarify the liquidation price is the level at which a leveraged position is closed due to unrealized losses reaching the level of initial capital used to fund the position.) Lets then say that the price reaches $9,000 this effectively closes this position, therefore reducing open interest by $100 million, while volume still increases reaching a total of $200 million.

Open interest for perpetual swaps so far this year peaked on February 18 at $2.26B, right when Bitcoin registered a lower high. In the last week, open interest fell to a low of $1.9B on February 27 as prices dropped, indicating that several long positions were either closed or, perhaps more likely, liquidated. Additionally, we can see a spike in open interest in February 24 and 25 preceding the large price decline on February 26 hinting to an increase in the amount of investor short trades at that moment.

Afterward, though, open interest dropped 12 percent pointing to some of these positions being closed, a sign of weakening bearish momentum.

Another helpful metric introduced in derivatives trading is the turnover ratio, which is the 24-hour volume for a contract over its open interest. In a nutshell, this represents the ratio of short-term speculation and hedging in a contract relative to its longer-term open positions. As one may expect, the turnover ratio tends to increase in volatile days as traders intend to profit from quick price movements. While volatility attracts trading volume, it usually also leads to decreases in open interest as a significant amount of positions get liquidated. Because of these relationships, the turnover ratio provides interesting insights on the expectations and reactions derivatives traders have towards volatility

This pattern can be seen on two of the most volatile days in the recent Bitcoin retracement, February 19 and February 26. As Bitcoin dropped over $700 on February 26 from its high point to its low, turnover quickly spiked to a monthly high. While the turnover ratio varies across exchanges it does tend to move in tandem, averaging around 5x for top exchanges versus a weekly average of 3.51. Following this drop, the turnover ratio stabilized but at a slightly higher average level indicating that Bitcoins recent relative volatility may resume.

A natural complement to the turnover ratio is the basis indicator. While the turnover ratio can offer insights into volatility, the basis provides a better understanding of price movements. Basis is the premium (or discount) between the spot price and the futures contract price.

Over time, this premium or discount decreases as futures price converge towards spot prices approaching the expiration date. In traditional markets, this concept is often tied with the concepts of contango and backwardation. In essence, a futures contract is considered to be in contango when its priced at a premium relative to current prices and in backwardation when its at a discount. Since basis is the index price minus the futures price, premiums are shown as negative values for basis and discounts as positive.

Going back to Bitcoins recent drop, basis increased significantly meaning that the premium decreased. However, futures contracts settling on March 27 still remain in contango, as seen in the graph below, which is a sign that expectations remain positive among derivatives traders.

While it may come as no surprise that the recent price decline is reflected on a decrease on the contract premium, it is worth noting out that the basis also appears to have a strong correlation with the price movement the day after. Throughout the month of February, the basis has had a remarkable 0.7 r-squared versus price movements on the following day, indicating the strong relationship between futures market activity and changes in spot prices.

Overall, these indicators demonstrate the prominence that derivatives markets are having in the crypto space. Analyzing the volume and open interest in the recent Bitcoin price drop point to the fact that several long positions got liquidated in the past few days, but is also showing a decrease in the bearish momentum. The subsequent spike in the turnover ratio demonstrates how derivatives traders looked for short-term hedging and speculating opportunities to take advantage of the recent volatility.

Lastly, changes in futures contracts premium, which can be seen in the basis, indicate how derivatives traders positioning end up reflecting in spot prices. Ultimately, these examples confirm the importance of derivatives indicators as effective complements to traditional technical analysis and blockchain-specific metrics.

Jesus Rodriguezis the CEO-CTO of IntoTheBlock, a market intelligence platform for crypto assets. He is a computer scientist, a speaker, and author on topics related to crypto and artificial intelligence.

Lucas Outumurois a Sr. Researcher at IntoTheBlock, a market intelligence platform for crypto assets. His areas of focus include crypto derivatives, DeFi and web 3.0 in general.

Bitcoin, currently ranked #1 by market cap, is down 0.8% over the past 24 hours. BTC has a market cap of $159B with a 24 hour volume of $44.59B.

Chart by CryptoCompare

Bitcoin is down 0.8% over the past 24 hours.

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Derivatives tell an interesting story of the recent Bitcoin price drop - CryptoSlate

Tron CEO: Bitcoin to Break $100K in 2025 and Pull Up Other Coins – Cointelegraph

Posted on February 29, 2020 by Danzig

Justin Sun, the founder and CEO of Tron (TRX), the 15th biggest cryptocurrency by market cap, is investing in a number of cryptos other than Bitcoin (BTC).

In a Feb. 23 interview with CNN, Tron CEO said that he is a long-term believer in cryptocurrencies and owns a stake in many altcoins, including the two largest coins after Bitcoin Ether (ETH) and XRP.

When asked whether Sun has its crypto portfolio diversified, the Tron CEO answered:

I own a lot of XRP and Ethereum, too. Im like a long-term believer of the crypto so I want all crypto assets to succeed. So thats why I own a lot of other different cryptos as well.

As a major believer in crypto, Sun is bullish on the price of cryptocurrencies and confident that cryptos like Bitcoin are the future of money. In the interview, Tron CEO predicted that Bitcoin will cross $100,000 mark in 2025, emphasizing that other cryptocurrencies will follow the trend.

Justin Suns $100,000 Bitcoin prediction in his own words:

I definitely believe Bitcoin will pass $100K in 2025. I believe we can achieve this price before 2025. At the same time, I think a lot of other crypto projects like Tron, Ethereum and XRP will also see bull market.

In line with his bullish stance on crypto, Trons Justin Sun claimed in the interview that he invests all of his money to crypto. However, Sun still converts his crypto in fiat currencies like the United States dollar. In the interview, Tron CEO said that he only withdraws crypto to fiat when he needs to spend money in his daily life.

The news comes about a month after Sun had his charity lunch with Berkshire Hathaway chairman and known Bitcoin critic Warren Buffett. On Jan. 23, Tron CEO met with Buffett to finally have a long-awaited luncheon after postponing the event for medical reasons previously in 2019.

In the latest interview, Tron CEO revealed that he didnt exactly try to convince the famous billionaire investor that crypto will massively surge in the coming years. Instead, Justin Sun was trying to explain some crypto potentials to Buffett as he wanted him to understand basic fundamentals of blockchain and crypto such as instant crypto transactions.

Tron CEO also outlined that Buffett was very open to new technologies like crypto and blockchain, noting that the the known investor accepted Bitcoin and TRX from him. However, Buffett has claimed that he doesnt own any cryptocurrency and doesnt plan to invest in any crypto in a Feb. 24 interview with CNBC. In the interview, the billionaire investor reiterated his negative stance on crypto, arguing that cryptos have zero value and dont produce anything.

In another CNBC interview in 2018, Buffet predicted that crypto will come to a bad ending, declaring that Bitcoin is "probably rat poison squared.

Cointelegraph reached out to the Tron team for additional comments on the matter and will update if we hear back.

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Bitcoins Potential to Benefit the African-American Community – Cointelegraph

Posted on February 29, 2020 by Danzig

The issue of race when it comes to cryptocurrency is a sensitive one, and not without reason. The African-American community is largely born at an economic disadvantage, with a legacy financial system fueled by unethical practices like redlining, among many others. However, cryptocurrencies may give them the opportunity to eventually level the playing field.

Jack Dorsey, CEO of Twitter, is no stranger to controversy himself. His platform currently hosts 330 million people around the world, and his individual followers currently number just over 4.3 million. On Sunday, he used that influence to promote a new book discussing Bitcoins potential benefits to the African-American community.

Bitcoin & Black America, written by Isaiah Jackson, offers an analysis of the role cryptocurrency can play with African-Americans, a group historically underserved by major financial institutions. Yet, the author notes, black people in the U.S. have largely not utilized cryptocurrency to try and achieve financial autonomy.

One of the problems, according to Jackson, is the perception of cryptocurrency among the African-American community. They are not the only ones to see Bitcoin as a scam, with new schemes continuing to exploit lack of regulatory oversight popping up in the news. Misinformation coupled with a lack of banking access has made investing in cryptocurrency a challenge among black people in the United States. Jackson says this must change going forward.

Originally published in July 2019, Bitcoin & Black America received a boost from the recent resurgence of the crypto market. Dorseys endorsement this week may do likewise.

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Warren Buffett is ‘completely wrong and outdated’ on bitcoin, Chamath Palihapitiya says – CNBC

Posted on February 29, 2020 by Danzig

Billionaire investor Chamath Palihapitiya disagrees with Berkshire Hathaway chairman Warren Buffett on the value of bitcoin, as Buffett declared earlier this week that cryptocurrencies have "no value."

"He is completely wrong and outdated on this point of view," Palihapitiya said on CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Wednesday.

Buffett thinks that cryptocurrencies "don't produce anything" and have zero value, declaring that he never will own anything like bitcoin. He's long been a critic of bitcoin and has described the digital currency as "rat poison squared," a "mirage," and "not a currency."

Although Palihapitiya disagrees with Buffett on the potential for cyrptocurrencies, the Silicon Valley investor said he still greatly respects Buffett on the whole.

"I think he's an exceptional person. I've learned an enormous amount, both from afar and the few interactions I've had with him," Palihapitiya said.

Palihapitiya has long been a supporter of the digital coin, saying "everybody should have 1% of their assets in bitcoin specifically."

"I don't think when you wake up and see a coronavirus scare and the Dow down 2,000, you should not be going in and buying bitcoin. That is an idiotic strategy," Palihapitiya said. "I think a reasonable strategy is to say 1% of my net worth should be in something completely uncorrelated to the world and how the world works. You quietly over some period of time accumulate a position and then just never look at it again and hope that that insurance under the mattress never has to come due. But, if it does, it will protect you."

CNBC's Kevin Stankiewicz contributed to this report

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SEC to Decide the Fate of Another Bitcoin ETF Proposal This Week – CoinDesk – CoinDesk

Posted on February 29, 2020 by Danzig

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is once again poised to approve or reject a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), when Wilshire Phoenixs United States Bitcoin and Treasury Investment Trust meets a filing deadline Wednesday.

Wilshire Phoenix is the latest in a long line of companies hoping to secure SEC approval to list shares of a bitcoin-related ETF, and the only one that has an active application before the securities regulator. Such an instrument would allow retail investors to get exposure to the bitcoin market without what some see as the added difficulty of owning bitcoin itself, potentially boosting market participation by individuals wary of bitcoins stance as an unregulated investment.

While its chances are slim the SEC has yet to approve any bitcoin ETF applications for a multitude of stated reasons the company was filing updates to its proposal as recently as last week in efforts to bolster its application.

Wilshire managing partner William Herrmann told CoinDesk that he was optimistic about the filing, saying in a phone call last week that we wouldn't have filed it if we didn't think that it would be approved.

To boost its chances, the amended S-1 filed on Feb. 14 now includes an entire additional section on underwriters, though no specific entities are named. The filing also now includes Wilshire Phoenixs maximum share price ($2,500), a number of shares it intends to register initially (8,040) (though this number is likely to change when the actual shares are being offered) and a note on the trust's fees (68 basis points).

The firm filed the ETF application in mid-2019, with the regulator repeatedly postponing any decision, leading to the final Feb. 26 deadline.

In rejecting ETFs previously, the SEC has pointed to concerns about market manipulation, the bitcoin markets overall size and a need for surveillance-sharing agreements as some factors it considers.

Wilshire is attempting to address these concerns by composing its ETF with a basket that automatically rebalances itself between U.S. Treasury bonds and bitcoin in response to the cryptocurrencys volatility. As volatility goes up, the basket favors bonds, and vice versa.

Herrmann previously told CoinDesk that in his view, this automatic rebalancing reduces the risk to investors.

The SEC certainly appears to be paying attention to the filing. According to public documents, Commissioners Hester Peirce and Allison Herren Lee both met with representatives from Wilshire Phoenix, NYSE Arca and their law firms.

The Division of Trading and Markets met with representatives from the companies in January, as well as twice last year, to discuss the proposal. Still, the SECs thinking on the proposal remains opaque.

Wilshires Herrmann, reiterating a point often brought up in favor of bitcoin ETFs, told CoinDesk the product would allow a wider group of investors to safely access what is essentially a new asset class.

"We want to provide easy access to strategies that are often only limited to institutions or accredited investors, Herrmann said. Restraining who is able to invest in any product or strategy on the basis of socioeconomic status or for any reason is simply wrong. This leaves many exposed to sudden market volatility followed by likely losses due to lack of diversification.

The bitcoin ETF Wilshire has proposed is actually one in a larger family of such products. The company has also filed to issue a gold and Treasury-backed ETF.

Herrmann said he believes creating multiple investment strategies for consumers is a part of its overall strategy.

"We're confident we will have the bitcoin ETF soon, and the gold ETF won't be far behind. We are aiming to launch a lot more products as well, Herrmann said.

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Bitcoin Just Saw A Key Technical Breakdown: Here’s Why BTC Could Dive Below $9K – newsBTC

Posted on February 29, 2020 by Danzig

Bitcoin failed to stay above the $9,500 support and declined more than 5% against the US Dollar. BTC price is now trading in a negative territory and it could slide below $9,000.

Yesterday, we discussed high chances of a big downside correction in bitcoin below $9,500 against the US Dollar. BTC did break the $9,500 support area and extended its decline.

Moreover, there was a close below the $9,350 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. During the decline, there was a break below a bearish continuation pattern with support at $9,225.

It opened the doors for more losses below $9,200. Finally, the price traded below $9,100 and formed a new weekly low at $9,087. It is currently consolidating losses, with an immediate resistance near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $9,679 high to $9,087 low.

On the upside, there are many resistances forming near the $9,350 and $9,400 levels. Additionally, there is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $9,420 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

Bitcoin Price

The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $9,679 high to $9,087 low is also near the $9,380 level to act as hurdle for bitcoin bulls.

Therefore, the price must climb above the $9,380 and $9,400 levels to start a fresh increase. Still, the main resistance is near $9,500, above which the bulls are likely to take over.

On the downside, there are a couple of key supports near the $9,000 area. If bitcoin fails to stay above the $9,000 handle, there is a risk of another 5% decline.

In the mentioned case, the price is likely to test the $8,500 support area in the coming sessions. Overall, there are many bearish signs emerging and the price could dive further below $9,000.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD The MACD is now gaining strength in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) The RSI for BTC/USD is currently near the oversold levels.

Major Support Levels $9,000 followed by $8,500.

Major Resistance Levels $9,280, $9,380 and $9,400.

Bitcoin Breaks Beneath Rising Trend Line More Bearish Pressure On The Way? – Coingape

Posted on February 29, 2020 by Danzig

Bitcoin dropped by 9.5% this week as the sellers start to take control over the market momentum. It dropped beneath $9,000 a few days ago to reach the current support level at around $8,672.

The cryptocurrency has spiked even further lower but has managed to rebound back above $8,600 to close each day. It also recently broke beneath a rising trend line as the outlook starts to turn bearish.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

BTC/USD Daily CHART SHORT TERM

Looking at the daily chart above, we can clearly see Bitcoin breaking beneath the rising trend line over the past 24-hours of trading. It is currently trading at support at $8,672 which is provided by the .5 Fibonacci Retracement level. The market managed to close above this level yesterday as the buyers battle to regain some form of control.

Bitcoin is still neutral but the recent break beneath the rising trend line is putting it in a tricky situation. A break and close beneath $8,500 will likely to confirm a short term bearish trend moving forward.

If the sellers break beneath the support at $8,672, the next level of support lies at the downside 1.618 Fibonacci Extension level at $8,559. This is then followed by support at $8,500. Beneath this, support is then located at $8,242 (.618 Fibonacci Retracement level), $8,000, and $7,630 (.786 Fibonacci Retracement level).

Toward the upside, resistance is located at $8,800. Above this, higher resistance lies at $8,975, $9,000, $9,270, and $9,500.

Key Levels

Support: $8,672, $8,559, $8,500, $8,250, $8,200, $8,000.

Resistance: $8,975, $9,000, $9,100, $9,270, $9,506, $9,740, $9,975, $9,000, $9,270, $9,500.

Summary

Article Name

Bitcoin Breaks Beneath Rising Trend Line - More Bearish Pressure On The Way?

Description

Bitcoin saw a 9.5% price decline this week as the cryptocurrency slipped below $9,000 to reach as low as $8,500.It recently broke beneath a 2-month-old rising trend line as the market outlook starts to look ever more bearish.

Author

Yaz Sheikh

Publisher Name

Coin Gape

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Bitcoin Breaks Beneath Rising Trend Line More Bearish Pressure On The Way? - Coingape

The Latest Move to Repair the Racist War on Drugs – TheStranger.com

Posted on February 29, 2020 by Danzig

Pot farm owner Joy Hollingsworth is 100 percent behind the proposed law. courtesy of Hollingsworth Cannabis company

The United States has a cruel relationship with weed. When pot was illegal everywhere, African Americans were arrested for pot crimes at far higher rates than white people. Now white people are raking in billions of dollars in weed revenue while Black people are largely shut out of the legal pot system.

Nowhere is this cruel reality more true than in Washington State, where Black people were 280 percent more likely to get arrested for pot than a white person during the war on drugs. Black people currently own only 4 percent of the state's weed retailers and 1 percent of the state's pot farms, according to data from the Washington State Liquor and Cannabis Board (WSLCB).

Our state has never tried to tackle this disparity. Rick Garza, director of the WSLCB, recently told a legislative hearing that our state "missed an opportunity to focus on social equity" when we legalized pot.

Now Garza wants to change that. The WSLCB proposed a law that would allow the agency to give its unused retail pot licenses to people who were previously convicted of a misdemeanor pot offense or who come from neighborhoods that were over-policed during the war on drugs. (The agency would not confirm how many licenses are available but estimates range from 13 to less than 40.) The proposed law cannot rely only on the race of the applicants to allocate the retail licenses, because affirmative action is illegal in Washington State.

Garza explicitly said that he wants social equity to help repair some of the harm of the war on drugs.

"By social equity, I mean two things," Garza said. "One, that the new cannabis industry should reflect the diverse population of our state. Second, it challenges us to create economic opportunity in the cannabis industry for people in communities that have been disproportionately harmed by cannabis prohibition."

The proposed law would also fund a new grant program and create a new task force that can recommend further programs. The grant programfunded with $1 million of pot-tax revenue a yearwould provide money for social equity license holders to navigate the bureaucratic nightmare of keeping pot licenses in compliance.

The task force would be composed of 12 members drawn from various boards and commissions, including organizations representing the African American and Latinx communities, which would be charged with making further social equity recommendations by the end of this year. Those recommendations could include calls for more pot licenses.

Joy Hollingsworth, who is Black and owns the pot farm Hollingsworth Cannabis Company with her family, said the task force was one of the reasons she is "fully, 100 percent supporting the bill."

"I have trust that they have the best intentions for the minority community and trying to get more people of color in the industry," Hollingsworth said. "That's why I really like this bill, because it's not just narrowing it down to one thing."

But not everyone is happy. Aaron Bossett, of the Black Cannabis Commission, said that any attempt to fix the harm of the war on drugs needs to include more than just pot licenses.

"For me, it's still a no. It's just not broad enough," Bossett said. "There needs to be more programs outside of just cannabis, because cannabis was used as a weapon. At least allow some of that tax money to go into community development and other programs."

The proposed law passed the state house of representatives on February 16 and is now awaiting a vote in the senate. If it passes, all it will need is a signature from Governor Jay Inslee before the state can start at least trying to use pot legalization to repair the harm of the war on drugs.

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The Latest Move to Repair the Racist War on Drugs - TheStranger.com

Q&A: NY new cannabis czar calls recreational pot the right thing to do – MPNnow.com

Posted on February 29, 2020 by Danzig

Norman Birenbaum, New York's new cannabis director, says legal recreational marijuana is the responsible public health and safety choice. Here's why.

Norman Birenbaum, the new cannabis policy guru for Gov. Andrew Cuomo, described legalizing recreational marijuana in New York as a moral imperative.

This is the right thing to do for public health and public safety, Birenbaum said in a USA TODAY Network New York interview.

The reality of the situation is we have adult-use cannabis today," he added. "The problem is its not regulated, and it is provided through the illicit market.

But if the embattled legal weed push succeeds this year, Birenbaum envisions replacing black-market pot with a tightly regulated marijuana industry that helps offset the racially biased war on drugs.

It is a stance in part forged during his last job leading Rhode Islands medical marijuana program. He joined Cuomo's administration in December.

His job will be to oversee the state Office of Cannabis Management that would issue licenses for producers, distributors and retailers. It would also oversee the state's medical marijuana and hemp industries.

Birenbaum's role will be to implement whatever law is passed by the state Legislature and signed by Gov. Andrew Cuomo. The sides are hopeful to have a deal as part of the state budget due by April 1.

So Birenbaum's viewpoint is insightful for a Cuomo administration that has increasingly become more comfortable with legalizing marijuana. When Cuomo took office in 2011, he did not support it, but in recent years has changed his stance as other states have made pot legal, including neighboring Massachusetts.

In the interview, Birenbaum, 32, who holds a bachelor's degree in political science from Boston College, addressed the generational implications of the debate and opposition from some health officials, parents and law enforcement.

Birenbaum also disputed some dire warnings from both sides of the legal weed divide, citing examples from the 11 states that already allow recreational sales to adults over 21. Cuomo said he plans to visit some of those states next month.

You get people saying, This is a plant that is a gift from above and there is absolutely no harm whatsoever and it should not be regulated, Birenbaum said.

Thats not necessarily right because there are real public health and safety concerns.

And the other people say It will be the downfall of modern civilization, and we have just not seen that happen in these other states, he added.

The discussion spanned plans for protecting workers from secondhand legal weed smoke and limiting accidental pot-edible overdoses to keeping drugs away from kids and spending cannabis tax revenues on social equity.

It has been edited for space and clarity.

What do you say to opposition concerns about legal marijuana health risks?

To think that legalizing adult use will suddenly flip a switch that hasnt been flipped for the last 30 or 40 years I think is short sighted. I think its a bit ignorant.

We need to reconcile with the fact that prohibition does not work. It never has worked.

And there have been very, very large externalities that have come from prohibition when it comes to how it was enforced, and there were communities that were destroyed.

And from a strictly public health and public safety standpoint, if consumer behavior is not changing we need to do everything we can to understand it and study it and make sure that were mitigating against the public-health risk.

How does legalization address vaping-related illnesses linked to marijuana?

The overwhelming majority of those products which were contributing to and causing (vaping-related illness) were illicit THC products.

What we can do is say If youre going to use these products, we can makes sure they dont contain vitamin E acetateor a flavorant which may be fine to consume if youre eating it, but when it goes through vaporization or aerosolization can be potentially dangerous.

Taking a head in the sand if we pretend its not there, its not there approach does not work.

Its also clear through the recent nicotine-vaping crisis youre now seeing a rash of laws and seeing a regulated framework coming into place.

We havent had a regulated framework for cannabis in this state ever, and mostly across the country.

And its time that we do that because its the responsible thing to do to safeguard public health and safety.

How do neighboring states marijuana laws impact the debate?

Right over the border in New Jersey they will be voting on this in November.

All indications show that vote will pass, it will be legalized. When you look at how its polling, and look at where it is in the country, these ballot initiatives are overwhelmingly popular.

Only two have failed. One by a very thin margin in Arizona, which is a pretty red state. And another in Ohio that was largely because it was drafted in a way that it would have only benefited a small handful of businesses.

Understanding that it is a virtual foregone conclusion that this will be right over the border, I think we need to ask ourselves: Do we want New York residents going to a neighboring jurisdiction?

What are other legal weed states seeing in terms of health concerns?

Because of early missteps in other states, we now have packaging and labeling standardsso that people have an understanding of what theyre putting into their bodies.

What weve seen in other states is actually positive indicators, especially around youth use and public education campaigns.

We have the healthiest generation of kids in this nations history when it comes to alcohol and tobacco consumption, but when you look at cannabis use it has stayed the same when alcohol and tobacco use is dropping.

So, we dont have the same type of regulated framework to make sure were educating kids about cannabis, and to make sure that the people who are operating in the industry arent targeting them and are acting responsibly.

How does New York make social equity work after other states failed?

A lot of early states would acknowledge the political atmosphere around this issue was just pass legalization and pass it by any and all means necessary.

That led to a disregard for communities that have been disproportionately harmed by prohibition and the war on drugs.

And so, the governor has been very, very clear that this is a foundational component of legalization in New York.

How do social equity applicants compete with big cannabis companies?

Its about tools in (Cuomos bill) to give geographic preference to social and economic equity licenses, because we understand the market in Rochester is different than the market in Manhattan.

We understand there is inherent value in certain places, and we want that value and that stability that comes with that to go to social and economic equity applicants.

Being able to issue zero- to low-interest loans to social equity applicants is something we kept in there from last year.

We understand that access to a license is nothing if you dont have access to the capital required to build it, and implement it, and run it in a way that is going to be prosperous.

What about calls for spending specific percentages of tax revenue on social equity?

Adequate resources are important, so is flexibility.

Local community impact grants in Cuomos plan, for example, is restorative justice, and it is being able to make investment in the communities that exist outside of the cannabis industry.

Because these communities need help and investment and resources, and not all of them want to engage in the cannabis industry and it can be a volatile industry.

But we also need to have the flexibility to be able to use the information that we gather to be able to work with community partners and stakeholders to help inform how the spending should be allocated.

How does New Yorks approach to marijuana taxes compare to other states?

Other states had a value-based tax that was either put on at whole sale or retail, but you didnt have any weight-based or potency or THC-based tax rate.

There were no price mechanisms in terms of ensuring of minimum value and stability of market. And thats really important because this is an agricultural commodity.

In states like Oregon you had over supply and dramatic price decreases to a point where you had businesses going out of business and you had large incentives for them to divert out of state.

How does New York prevent black-market pot from undercutting legal weed?

Our illicit market is not one based off growing and production. Its more based on distribution and delivery service.

So, we can fulfill that need by having locally grown and locally produced products that are safe and regulated to fulfill that market demand.

Other states have other reasons.

California, for example, has seen over a half century of just large scale, unregulated growing and supply to the point where they export to the rest of the country.

In Oregon, its that they produced so much more cannabis than they need. They could stop producing it right now and still have enough cannabis to provide every man, woman and child with, I think, six pounds.

But thats a function of not having the foresight of putting in market-based limitation on production.

What will stop the out-of-state smuggling of illicit pot into New York?

People now obtain from the illicit market because we dont have a regulated market for them, but weve seen this transition in legal states.

So, if you have someone who is engaged in a large-scale sophisticated (illicit marijuana) delivery service here now, its making sure that they have an opportunity to come in and do it the right way that is regulated and taxed by the state.

Its not just about displacing the illicit market. Its also about absorbing these entrepreneurs that have small businesses, be it operating illegally, and that is part of the social justice initiative of this bill.

What can New Yorkers expect if legal marijuana use cafes are approved?

This is not yet established in other states. Were starting to see it in Alaska and Massachusetts, and municipalities like Denver and others in California.

We need to create a safe space where consumers can use products when the alternative would be on the street, which is something we dont want to see, or putting their housing in jeopardy, particularly looking at federally subsidized housing.

We need it to be a controlled atmosphere where were able to educate consumers to make sure the products are safe, the environment is safe.

Whats your response to the new AAA report raising concerns that more Americans are getting high before driving?

The governor has a comprehensive road safety approach to make sure that we can, as best as we can, create parity between enforcement of impaired driving, whether thats under the use of alcohol, opioids, cannabis or other substances.

For example, right now if you refuse to undergo a breathalyzer test for alcohol impairment theres an automatic administrative suspension of your drivers licenses.

We proposed the same thing for cannabis if you refuse to undergo an evaluation from a drug recognition expert.

And the same penalties for having an open container of alcohol in a moving vehicle have been put in place for open containers and use in a vehicle of cannabis.

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Unaddressed demand upsets war on supply – newagebd.net

Posted on February 29, 2020 by Danzig

The governments failure to address the most fundamental issues about the drug abuse, including the availability of drugs and treatment of addicts and large-scale anti-drug awareness programmes, has made little impact on the countrywide anti-drug drive over nearly two years in the country.

Experts and rights activists said that arresting drug peddlers and addicts, recovering drugs and frequent killing of peddlers in gunfights would bring no result in curbing the drug use and distribution from the society until the government gave a major focus on stopping the demand-side problem to save the countrys young people.

Otherwise, the addicts would continue to find drugs and the supply would remain plenty, though the prices might go up, they said.

They also stressed the need for an effective and functional criminal justice system, increasing low-cost or free treatment and rehabilitation opportunities for the addicts, and strict law enforcement to contain the menace.

The home ministry on February 23 informed a meeting of the parliamentary standing committee on the ministry informed that a total of 26,678 prisoners, or 30 per cent of the total inmates in the countrys jails, were arrested for their alleged involvement in drug-related cases until February 9.

At the meeting, the ministry disclosed that 1,30,681 cases were filed against 1,71,752 drug peddlers by the Department of Narcotics Control in 2019.

The ministry said that the government took an initiative to make the DNC of global standard that would ensure a modern interrogation unit, criminal data management system, detective equipment, mobile tracking, narcotics detecting device and digital forensic lab.

The meeting sources said that Myanmar was using Bangladesh as a route for drug smuggling.

Though there is no survey carried out on the number of drug addicts, the Department of Narcotics Control assumes that there are over 60 lakh addicts in the country.

Officials and activists speak of an acute shortage of treatment facilities for drug addicts, both at government and non-government levels, while the treatment cost at private treatment centres is so high that a lower middle-class family cannot venture to go there.

The countrys four government drug addiction treatment centres have the capacity of providing residential treatment only to 115 people a month while 262 private facilities can treat 3,110 addicts each month, DNC officials said.

A drug addict requires a long-time residential treatment and follow-up and at government treatment centres, where the course of residential treatment is 28 days.

On the other hand, private hospitals provide residential treatment for four to six months.

The government hospitals provide treatment almost for free while private treatment centres charge Tk 30,000 to Tk 60,000 a month in Dhaka, Tk 18,000 to Tk 30,000 a month in Sylhet and Chittagong and Tk 10,000 to Tk 20,000 a month in Khulna and Sylhet.

Neither the government treatment centres nor the private ones have any mechanism to follow up the patients and the follow-up treatment absolutely depends on the patients family, officials at DNC and private treatment centres said.

Rights organisation Ain o Salish Kendra data show that a total of 479 people were killed in gunfights in the anti-drug drive until December 2019. The drive began in May 2018.

Police and RAB officials said that drugs were coming in from different places as the peddlers were changing their strategies against the backdrop of the drive.

But, they claimed, they had been detecting them, seizing drugs and arresting the peddlers.

They said that the government was launching programmes to create peoples awareness against drug abuse.

Merely a drive of seizing drugs, arresting and killing peddlers will bring no positive result if the demand side is not addressed right now. The government should begin a large-scale campaign encompassing schools, colleges and society in general and take the addicts to rehabilitation centres, said Dhaka University criminology assistant professor Umme Wara.

Besides, she said, the government should take initiatives to stop drug smuggling through borders.

DU Psychology associate professor Akib Ul Huque said that the issue should be seen holistically and we needed to start a social movement to address the demand-side of the problem first.

A campaign should be launched to inform the people about the role of individuals, families, peer groups, local communities and teachers of schools and colleges to face the problem and to identify the reasons at the personal level.

He also stressed the need to engage the children in games and sports as well as cultural activities to make them socilise and to prepare them for checking mental pressure and remove undue curiosity.

The situation of drug abuse is not changing as the whole criminal justice system, law enforcement and the anti-drug campaign have become dysfunctional, rights organisation Odhikar secretary Adilur Rahman Khan told New Age.

He said that the government was not able to involve the common people in the anti-drug campaign as they were unelected one and that is why they were not getting any good result.

ASK executive secretary Sheepa Hafiza also stressed the need for enhancing low-cost or free treatment and the rehabilitation opportunities for drug addicts and strict law enforcement to curb the menace.

On February 10, the cabinet approved in principle a draft of the Narcotics Control (Amendment) Bill 2020 as the government backtracked on implementing a provision of the Narcotics Control Act 2018 that required creation of separate tribunals at the district level to deal with drug-related cases with speed and efficiency.

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Unaddressed demand upsets war on supply - newagebd.net

Jimenez: Tougher stance on drug war The Manila Times – The Manila Times

Posted on February 29, 2020 by Danzig

The new co-chairman of the Inter-Agency Committee on Anti-Illegal Drugs (ICAD) on Saturday vowed to pursue a tougher approach to the administrations anti-narcotics campaign, with an aim to reduce the supply of illegal drugs entering and circulating in the country within President Rodrigo Dutertes term.

PACC Chairman Dante Jimenez

In a phone interview, ICAD co-chairman Dante Jimenez said he wanted a working committee and a tough law enforcement with strategies to further improve the drug demand and supply reduction program of the government.

He added that he would meet with his co-chairman, Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency (PDEA) chief Aaron Aquino, as well as the other member-agencies of the committee to discuss his plans.

Definitely dito sa labang ito tough law enforcement ang gagawin (we should have a tough law enforcement in this fight). I will meet with all these member-agencies. Being the co-chairman, mag-usap kami ni Aaron (I will talk to Aaron) and I will make them work. I want a working committee, hindi yung display lang. Hindi pwede yun (not just a display. I will not allow that), Jimenez told The Manila Times.

We have to be tough against these druglords. It (drug war) has to be tough. Tough stance ang gagawin natin diyan (We will pursue a tough stance), more tougher than before, he said.

Jimenez, founding chairman of the Volunteers Against Crime and Corruption before he assumed leadership of the Presidential Anti-Corruption Commission, believed his experience as anti-crime advocate would be helpful in the governments campaign against illegal drugs.

With my experience in fighting illegal drugs for 29 years since the killing of my brother, my plan is, number one, we should cut the supply because that is the best strategy to cut the demand, he said.

Jimenez also pushed for the amendment of Republic Act 9165 or the Comprehensive Dangerous Drugs Act of 2002 to ensure transparency, safety and security in handling illegal drugs seized during operations.

Ang problema ng supply kasi (The problem of the supply) is, one, yung confiscated drugs, minsan nababawasan ng mga confiscator (the confiscated drugs were sometimes recycled by the confiscators). In that way, pagnakakakuha sila ng ilang mga kilos diyan, gagamitin nila sa operations or gagamitin nila sa mga (when they get for instance a few kilos there, they will use it in the operations or they will use it in their) illegal activities . So that is bad, Jimenez said.

So thats why this is the job of the law enforcement, yun ang nakikita ko so far how to ensure na ma-destroy yan (thats I think the best way to ensure that all confiscated drugs will be destroyed). Thats the ultimate way, he added.

Jimenez also proposed a close coordination with the so-called Golden Triangle region, which borders the countries of Laos, Thailand and Myanmar, to address the drug problem in the region.

Question, can it be done in two and a half years? Perhaps, we could start the structure, he said.

Aquino, who also serves as Jimenezs co-chairman in the ICAD, earlier said most of the shabu shipped to the Philippines came from the Golden Triangle region, not from China as earlier claimed by Vice President Maria Leonor Robredo.

The main source of course depends on the illegal drugs. Meth or shabu in the past are mostly coming from China, but not now most are coming from the Golden Triangle region that borders Laos, Thailand, and Myanmar, Aquino has said.

Robredo, who held the post as drug czar for only 19 days, had said she has received reports that the illegal drugs that enter the country are from China.

She added that most of the big-time drug suspects were either Chinese or from the Filipino-Chinese community, saying the issue needed to be looked into.

Duterte earlier named Robredo as co-chairman of ICAD on October 31, 2019, after the latter claimed that the governments crackdown on illegal drugs was obviously not working.

Robredo was supposed to help her ICAD co-chairman, Aquino, in addressing the drug menace in the country until June 30, 2022.

She was, however, fired as drug czar on November 24 last year for failing to present new measures to improve the governments fight against illegal drugs.

WITH REPORT FROM DARWIN PESCO

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Jimenez: Tougher stance on drug war The Manila Times - The Manila Times

New Yorks new cannabis czar calls recreational marijuana the right thing to do – Times Herald-Record

Posted on February 29, 2020 by Danzig

Norman Birenbaum, the new cannabis policy guru for Gov. Andrew Cuomo, described legalizing recreational marijuana in New York as a moral imperative.

This is the right thing to do for public health and public safety, Birenbaum said in a USA TODAY Network New York interview.

The reality of the situation is we have adult-use cannabis today," he added. "The problem is its not regulated, and it is provided through the illicit market.

But if the embattled legal weed push succeeds this year, Birenbaum envisions replacing black-market pot with a tightly regulated marijuana industry that helps offset the racially biased war on drugs.

It is a stance in part forged during his last job leading Rhode Islands medical marijuana program. He joined Cuomo's administration in December.

Birenbaum's role will be to implement whatever law is passed by the state Legislature and signed by Gov. Andrew Cuomo. The sides are hopeful to have a deal as part of the state budget due by April 1.

Norman Birenbaum is New York's new director of Cannabis Programs. He was appointed in December 2019 by Gov. Andrew Cuomo after holding a similar post in Rhode Island.

So Birenbaum's viewpoint is insightful for a Cuomo administration that has increasingly moved more comfortable with legalizing marijuana. When Cuomo took office in 2011, he did not support it, but in recent years has changed his stance as other states have made pot legal, including neighboring Massachusetts.

You get people saying, This is a plant that is a gift from above and there is absolutely no harm whatsoever and it should not be regulated, Birenbaum said.

Thats not necessarily right because there are real public health and safety concerns.

And the other people say It will be the downfall of modern civilization, and we have just not seen that happen in these other states, he added.

It has been edited for space and clarity.

What do you say to opposition concerns about legal marijuana health risks?

To think that legalizing adult use will suddenly flip a switch that hasnt been flipped for the last 30 or 40 years I think is short sighted. I think its a bit ignorant.

We need to reconcile with the fact that prohibition does not work. It never has worked.

And there have been very, very large externalities that have come from prohibition when it comes to how it was enforced, and there were communities that were destroyed.

How does legalization address vaping-related illnesses linked to marijuana?The overwhelming majority of those products which were contributing to and causing (vaping-related illness) were illicit THC products.

What we can do is say If youre going to use these products, we can make sure they dont contain vitamin E acetateor a flavorant which may be fine to consume if youre eating it, but when it goes through vaporization or aerosolization can be potentially dangerous.

Taking a head in the sand if we pretend its not there, its not there approach does not work.

The state Health Department said its lab results showed very high levels of vitamin E acetate in nearly all cannabis-containing samples that may have been leading to lung illnesses from vaping. It said these were some of the products it found with high levels of vitamin E.

Its also clear through the recent nicotine-vaping crisis youre now seeing a rash of laws and seeing a regulated framework coming into place.

We havent had a regulated framework for cannabis in this state ever, and mostly across the country.

And its time that we do that because its the responsible thing to do to safeguard public health and safety.

How do neighboring states marijuana laws impact the debate?Right over the border in New Jersey they will be voting on this in November.

All indications show that vote will pass, it will be legalized. When you look at how its polling, and look at where it is in the country, these ballot initiatives are overwhelmingly popular.

Understanding that it is a virtual foregone conclusion that this will be right over the border, I think we need to ask ourselves: Do we want New York residents going to a neighboring jurisdiction?

What are other legal weed states seeing in terms of health concerns?Norman Birenbaum is New York's new director of Cannabis Programs. He was appointed in December 2019 by Gov. Andrew Cuomo after holding a similar post in Rhode Island.

Because of early missteps in other states, we now have packaging and labeling standardsso that people have an understanding of what theyre putting into their bodies.

What weve seen in other states is actually positive indicators, especially around youth use and public education campaigns.

How does New York make social equity work after other states failed?A lot of early states would acknowledge the political atmosphere around this issue was just pass legalization and pass it by any and all means necessary.

That led to a disregard for communities that have been disproportionately harmed by prohibition and the war on drugs.

And so, the governor has been very, very clear that this is a foundational component of legalization in New York.

How do social equity applicants compete with big cannabis companies?Assemblyman Walter Mosley, D-Brooklyn, spoke at a rally Jan. 28, 2020, to urge lawmakers to legalize marijuana and return the revenue back into the communities of color who have been hurt by illegal marijuana sales for decades.Its about tools in (Cuomos bill) to give geographic preference to social and economic equity licenses, because we understand the market in Rochester is different than the market in Manhattan.

We understand there is inherent value in certain places, and we want that value and that stability that comes with that to go to social and economic equity applicants.

Being able to issue zero- to low-interest loans to social equity applicants is something we kept in there from last year.

We understand that access to a license is nothing if you dont have access to the capital required to build it, and implement it, and run it in a way that is going to be prosperous.

What about calls for spending specific percentages of tax revenue on social equity?Adequate resources are important, so is flexibility.

Local community impact grants in Cuomos plan, for example, is restorative justice, and it is being able to make investment in the communities that exist outside of the cannabis industry.

Because these communities need help and investment and resources, and not all of them want to engage in the cannabis industry and it can be a volatile industry.

How does New Yorks approach to marijuana taxes compare to other states?

Other states had a value-based tax that was either put on at whole sale or retail, but you didnt have any weight-based or potency or THC-based tax rate.

There were no price mechanisms in terms of ensuring of minimum value and stability of market. And thats really important because this is an agricultural commodity.

In states like Oregon you had over supply and dramatic price decreases to a point where you had businesses going out of business and you had large incentives for them to divert out of state.

How does New York prevent black-market pot from undercutting legal weed?After executing the search warrant on Riley's Hamilton Place home, they quantities of marihuana, concentrated cannabis oil, concentrated cannabis edibles, cash and ammunition, police said.

Our illicit market is not one based off growing and production. Its more based on distribution and delivery service.

So, we can fulfill that need by having locally grown and locally produced products that are safe and regulated to fulfill that market demand.

Other states have other reasons.

California, for example, has seen over a half century of just large scale, unregulated growing and supply to the point where they export to the rest of the country.

But thats a function of not having the foresight of putting in market-based limitation on production.

What will stop the out-of-state smuggling of illicit pot into New York?People now obtain from the illicit market because we dont have a regulated market for them, but weve seen this transition in legal states.

What can New Yorkers expect if legal marijuana use cafes are approved?

This is not yet established in other states. Were starting to see it in Alaska and Massachusetts, and municipalities like Denver and others in California.

We need it to be a controlled atmosphere where were able to educate consumers to make sure the products are safe, the environment is safe.

Whats your response to the new AAA report raising concerns that more Americans are getting high before driving?The governor has a comprehensive road safety approach to make sure that we can, as best as we can, create parity between enforcement of impaired driving, whether thats under the use of alcohol, opioids, cannabis or other substances.

For example, right now if you refuse to undergo a breathalyzer test for alcohol impairment theres an automatic administrative suspension of your drivers licenses.

We proposed the same thing for cannabis if you refuse to undergo an evaluation from a drug recognition expert.

And the same penalties for having an open container of alcohol in a moving vehicle have been put in place for open containers and use in a vehicle of cannabis.

More: Health experts fear more stoned drivers are taking the wheel following pot legalization

What is the impact of the effort to legalize marijuana at the federal level?The SAFE Act to address (cannabis industry) banking would certainly be more than helpful.

When the cannabis industry is forced to be a cash industry, that just makes it more expensive and more dangerous for both the states that are administering these programs, but also the licensees and the communities where they operate.

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New Yorks new cannabis czar calls recreational marijuana the right thing to do - Times Herald-Record

Boston prepares for its first marijuana store, and its future pot industry – The Boston Globe

Posted on February 29, 2020 by Danzig

The Dorchester store, Pure Oasis, on Blue Hill Avenue, is finishing staff training and state requirements before its last inspection. Its opening will mark an important milestone as the states first store owned by people in the states economic empowerment program, which is aimed at boosting communities hardest hit by the war on drugs.

We are now very much focused on the opening of this shop," Tkachuk said. It is very exciting for the city of Boston, for the state, for the Eastern Seaboard.

The city also expects three other marijuana stores to not lag too far behind" Pure Oasis, Tkachuk said. She said the next shops to open will likely be Ascend by North Station, Berkshire Roots in East Boston, and Patriot Care, a medical marijuana dispensary already open near Downtown Crossing that wants to sell recreational pot.

Pure Oasis leaders say they will have 40 employees and expect up to 1,000 customers per day which will be a boon for the neighborhood, resulting in more customers for nearby shops. Their security staff will keep sidewalks clear, and the business rented space next door that can fit 100 people waiting in line indoors, said Kobie Evans, a co-owner of Pure Oasis.

We want to be good community partners and make sure Grove Hall is as vibrant and enterprising as possible," Evans said.

Boston is learning from Brookline, whose cannabis store, New England Treatment Access, draws about 2,500 daily customers and has prompted neighbor complaints about parking, traffic, litter, and public pot smoking. Another town, Leicester, near Worcester, also struggled with crowds in November 2018 when its pot shop, Cultivate, became one of the first two cannabis stores to open on the East Coast.

Brookline is more urban than Leicester, but it still has a lot more open space than Dorchester, Tkachuk said.

Many cannabis entrepreneurs in the audience said they were frustrated that Bostons permitting process has appeared stalled for the past year, while they paid thousands of dollars in monthly rent not knowing if they would ever receive city approval.

With the Dorchester opening, Boston is entering a new, faster phase of its cannabis rollout. Mayor Martin J. Walshs administration is expected to soon appoint a five-member cannabis board that will approve businesses. One of the boards first jobs will be to review 28 companies applications for host-community agreements, which are contracts required to apply for a state license.

So far, the city has signed 14 agreements. Three, including Pure Oasis, are economic empowerment applicants.

The city passed an ordinance, proposed by Council President Kim Janey, aimed at boosting cannabis business ownership by equity businesses owned by local entrepreneurs from largely Black, Latino, and low-income areas that were disproportionately affected by drug policing.

Massachusetts was the first state to include that goal in its cannabis legalization law. The ordinance establishes an equity fund for disadvantaged applicants, using money from the city and pot businesses. The ordinance requires an equal ratio of equity businesses to non-equity businesses to move forward in Boston.

Asked whether the equal-ratio requirement could slow the industry if equity businesses struggle with capital, Tkachuk said no. Entrepreneurs can receive money from the equity fund and guidance from the citys economic development staff, she said.

The citys and states efforts are crucial, Janey said, but they wont be enough.

We got here after 400 years of oppression, she said at Thursdays panel discussion. Were not going to solve it with one ordinance or one state law.

Janey said the city should also consider freeing equity businesses from restrictive zoning requirements and implementing an equal ratio requirement in shopping areas like the Back Bay, the Seaport, and Downtown Crossing.

If you look at major cities that have come before us, they have not provided a successful blueprint," Tkachuk said. "Boston is going to lead the way on equity for major cities in the United States.

But Ed Gaskin, executive director of Greater Grove Hall Main Streets, said he felt the city should have required Pure Oasis to provide more benefits to the neighborhood in its agreement.

Were giving up parking, theres more traffic, more congestion what do we get in return? Gaskin said.

The contract requires Pure Oasis to pay 3 percent of its sales revenue to the city, which is the maximum payment state law specifies.

Additional payments in city contracts have emerged as one of the major barriers to small businesses in the industry.

The bigger players can afford to buy a firetruck, said Steven Hoffman, chairman of the Cannabis Control Commission. "The smaller players cant.

Naomi Martin can be reached at naomi.martin@globe.com.

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Boston prepares for its first marijuana store, and its future pot industry - The Boston Globe

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