Ukraine says ‘moving forward’ along parts of Bakhmut front – Macau Business

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A senior Ukrainian military commander said Saturday that Kyivs forces were advancing along parts of the front line against Russian forces near the eastern town of Bakhmut.

Our soldiers are moving forward in some areas of the front, and the enemy is losing equipment and manpower, Commander of Ukrainian ground forces Oleksandr Syrskyi said on social media.

The defensive operation in the Bakhmut direction continues.

Earlier Saturday the Germany defence ministry said the country was preparing a new weapons package for Ukraine worth 2.7 billion euros, reportedly Berlins largest since Russia invaded last year.

Kyiv said that the massive new weapons package from Germany was another sign that Russia would lose in its war against Ukraine.

States declare large defence aid packages for Ukraine, said Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

He said that the aid indicated that Russia was bound to lose and sit on the bench of historical shame.

Ukraines Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said that he discussed next weapons supplies with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

I paid close attention to the importance of providing Ukraine with F-16s and steps necessary to begin training of Ukrainian pilots, he added.

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Ukraine says 'moving forward' along parts of Bakhmut front - Macau Business

‘Nothing left’ as looting guts Sudan’s already crippled economy – Macau Business

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A month ago, Mohsen Abdelrahman owned a small but profitable jewellery store in Khartoum. Now, he has nothing to his name but a broken lock and a hollowed-out shopfront.

Ten days after battles broke out between two rival Sudanese generals, he received a call from the shopkeeper next door to his business saying it had been looted.

Despite the danger, Abdelrahman braved the relentless gunfire and air strikes ravaging the capital to get to his store on the other side of town, only to have his worst fears confirmed.

Everything I owned was gone, he told AFP, adding that now he just wants this war to end, so I can start over.

There is no end in sight to the conflict pitting the forces of army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan against those of his deputy-turned-foe Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, who commands the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.

But even before the fighting broke out, Sudan was one of the worlds poorest countries, brought to its knees by decades of international sanctions under former dictator Omar al-Bashir, as well as rampant corruption and the 2011 independence of South Sudan which held almost all the countrys oil.

After a brief respite following Bashirs ouster, a 2021 coup led by Burhan and Daglo saw the international community cut $2 billion of annual aid to the country, slashing 40 percent of its budget.

The economy has been in free fall since, with the government never announcing a 2023 budget but instead boasting that dizzying inflation had recently fallen under 100 percent.

Prior to the ongoing conflict, Khartoum saw signs of economic renewal, with international restaurants and supermarkets stocked with organic food and American goods although much of it was smuggled through the Sahel.

But nowadays Khartoum, which is home to five million people, is a city whose shattered windows, gutted shopfronts, pockmarked cars and empty shelves bear witness to the rampant violence and looting.

Khartoum airport, now a shell of its former self, has been shut down since the fighting began on April 15.

Sudan once depended on vital trade coming through Port Sudan on the Red Sea, where now only planes and ships full of fleeing civilians take off, and crucial humanitarian aid trickles in.

Nothing has been spared from the looting, including hospitals, humanitarian organisations, and the abandoned houses of more than 500,000 people who fled the capital for neighbouring towns, or other countries.

Noureddine Adams mobile phone store was no exception. On the fifth day of the conflict, a lock was broken and his shop was ransacked.

They didnt leave anything, and now I have nothing left, he told AFP.

In addition to having lost their inventory, shop owners and traders like Adam are now saddled with debt, he said.

According to a customs official who spoke to AFP on condition of anonymity, the Soba container terminal south of Khartoum where imports are processed before coming into the capital and other areas has been stripped bare.

It was all products from abroad that had come in and were waiting to be processed, but their importers couldnt come and finish the paperwork because of the war, he said.

According to witnesses in Khartoum North, wheat silos at Sayga, Sudans largest producer of flour, have been emptied out a potential disaster for a country where the UN predicts 19 million people could be food insecure within six months.

Khartoum residents have tried to hold out hope, even while sheltering under air strikes and seeing their fleeing neighbours homes broken into and ransacked.

But Abdeldayem Omar knows his clothing store is gone for good.

On the third day of the war, a rocket fell on the market, he told AFP.

Some stalls burned to the ground, including mine. Others partially survived the flames, but whatever was left was looted.

The irony, according to him, is that the main police station in the district is headquartered inside the market itself.

But the police have completely disappeared, and theres no protection left.

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'Nothing left' as looting guts Sudan's already crippled economy - Macau Business

Sudanese fleeing war find their homes occupied by fighters – Macau Business

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Like many Sudanese forced to flee their homes amid raging street battles, Mohamed said that when he finally returned to his flat, he found heavily armed paramilitaries had moved in.

After cautiously approaching his Khartoum apartment block, he discovered that the entire building had become like a military barracks filled with weapons and ammunition.

Almost a month of heavy fighting has turned Khartoum into a war zone, with the citys five million residents enduring artillery barrages, gunfights, air strikes and anti-aircraft fire.

Many have hunkered down at home amid power outages and a lack of clean water, food and medicines but many have also been forcefully evicted.

The northern suburb where Mohamed lived has become a major battleground in the war between army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, commander of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

After Mohameds family had spent terrifying days at home, waking and sleeping to deafening explosions and gunfire outside, RSF fighters came to evict them.

They knocked on the door and asked us to leave, said the 54-year-old, who like others interviewed by AFP for this article asked not to be identified by his full name citing security fears.

Before leaving home, Mohameds family took what they could carry and locked their doors, he added.

When he returned days later to collect some belongings, Mohamed was interrogated by the RSF paramilitaries whom he had found sitting inside his apartment.

Witnesses in Khartoum say RSF fighters have often taken up positions in leafy residential streets, with soldiers hiding camouflaged trucks under trees.

Men in military fatigues patrol in pick-up trucks mounted with heavy machine guns.

Another man, Babiker, 44, said he fled his home in central Khartoum amid incessant gunfire, only to return two weeks later to find it occupied by the RSF.

I found more than 20 paramilitaries living there,he said, adding he was interrogated for half an hour before being allowed entry.

They were using all appliances and cooking in our kitchen, he said. All the bedrooms that we had locked before leaving were open.

Sudans bitter fighting has so far killed at least 750 people, wounded thousands and uprooted hundreds of thousands, with many refugees fleeing the country.

The UNs human rights commissioner, Volker Turk, said the RSF had allegedly taking possession of many buildings in Khartoum to use as operational bases, evicting residents and launching attacks from densely populated urban areas.

He also criticised Sudans military for launching attacks in densely occupied civilian areas, including air strikes that have killed residents.

The paramilitaries have also turned many hospitals and medical facilities into barracks a practice the UN World Health Organization has condemned as a gross violation.

Even diplomatic missions in Khartoum have not been spared.

On May 3, Saudi Arabia said an armed group had stormed its cultural office and damaged appliances, cameras, and seized some property.

The European Union said on April 17 that its ambassador was assaulted in his residence, labelling the attack a gross violation of the Vienna Convention.

Last Wednesday, the RSF took over my family house in Khartoum, where my cousins and I have our documents, valuables, and all our memories, one Sudanese woman wrote on Twitter.

Its confirmed by the only neighbour left in the neighbourhood that it is the RSF.RSF soldiers are going out of control, out of Hemetis control, she added, referring to General Daglos nickname.

Another citizen, Tahany, 33, escaped her home when fighting intensified in the area near Khartoums airport.

Having abandoned hopes for an end to the fighting, she decided to join the tens of thousands of Sudanese making the long, arduous trip to Egypt but she first needed to return home to get her travel documents.

Paramilitaries at checkpoints interrogated us as we were trying to return to our neighbourhood, and every time we told them we wanted to pick up some things from our home, she said.

Eventually, Tahany and her mother were allowed entry to the home, escorted by paramilitaries.

We found that all our home items had been used, from the kitchen to the beds, she said.They even mounted a weapon on the balcony on the second floor.

Terrified, Tahany and her mother frantically searched for their travel documents and rushed out.We are now on our way to Egypt, she said. We dont know what has become of our home.

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Erdogan leads prayers on eve of fight for political life – Macau Business

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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will lead Saturday prayers at Istanbuls iconic Hagia Sophia mosque, ahead of a battle for his political life against a powerful secular rival.

The 69-year-old will be emulating a ritual that Ottoman Sultans performed before they led their men off to war as he braces for Sundays parliamentary and presidential ballot.

Erdogan has never faced a more energised or united opposition than the one led by retired civil servant Kemal Kilicdaroglu and his disparate alliance of six parties.

The Turkish leader excelled at splitting his rivals and forging unlikely unions while winning one national election after another over 21 years.

But his Islamic-rooted party is reeling from anger over Turkeys economic meltdown and a crackdown on civil liberties during Erdogans second decade of rule.

The six opposition parties have put aside their political and cultural differences and joined forces for the lone task of pushing Erdogan out.

They are officially supported by Turkeys main pro-Kurdish party a group that accounts for at least 10 percent of the vote.

The math is not adding up in Erdogans favour and most polls show him trailing his secular rival by a few points.

Kilicdaroglu is now desperately trying to break the 50-percent threshold and avoid a May 28 runoff that could give Erdogan a chance to regroup and reframe the debate.

Are you ready to bring democracy to this country? To bring peace to this country? I promise, I am ready too, Kilicdaroglu told a rally in Ankara.

Erdogan was put in the uncomfortable position on Friday night television of being asked what he would do if he lost.

The veteran leader bristled and pledged to respect the vote.

This is a very silly question, he said.

We came to power in Turkey by democratic means, with the approval of our people. If our people were to change their mind, we would do what democracy requires.

His campaign path to re-election will take him to the scene Saturday of one of the more controversial decisions of his recent rule.

The Hagia Sophia was built as a Byzantine cathedral once the worlds largest before being converted into a mosque by the Ottomans.

It was converted into a museum when Mustafa Kemal Ataturk created a secular post-Ottoman Turkey in 1923.

Erdogans decision to convert it back into a mosquein 2020 solidified his hero status among his religious supporters and contributed to growing Western unease with his rule.

The entire West got mad but I did it, Erdogan told an Istanbul rally on Saturday.

Erdogan has played up religious themes and used culture wars to try and energise his conservative and nationalist base.

He brands the opposition as a pro-LGBT lobby that takes orders from outlawed Kurdish militants and is bankrolled by the West.

The strident message appears to be aimed at taking voters minds off Turkeys most dire economic crisis of his entire rule.

The official annual inflation rate touched 85 percent last year. Economists think the real figure could have been much higher and blame the crisis on Erdogans unconventional financial theories.

Kilicdaroglu pledges to do away with them immediately after taking office.

But the starkness of the choice confronting Turkeys 64 million voters is accompanied by soaring tensions and lingering fears over what Erdogan would do if he lost a narrow vote.

Kilicdaroglu wore a bulletproof vest to his two rallies on Friday after receiving what his party described as a credible threat on his life.

He gave an uncharacteristically short evening speech in Ankara that was originally played up by his campaign.

Kilicdaroglus running mate Ekrem Imamoglu a popular figure who beat Erdogans ally in controversial 2019 Istanbul mayoral polls was pelted by rocks days earlier while touring Turkeys conservative heartland.

Turkish officials launched a formal investigation and made some arrests.

But several senior officials in Erdogans ruling party accused the Istanbul mayor of provoking the incident.

The voting will include southeastern regions that lie in ruins in the wake of a February quake that claimed more than 50,000 lives.

The level of anger in these traditionally pro-Erdogan regions could also help swing Sundays outcome.

Were not happy to be voting in the middle of rubble, but we want the government to change, said Diber Simsek, a resident of the city of Antakya that sustained major damage in the disaster.

by Fulya OZERKAN with Burcin GERCEK in Ankara and Remi BANET in Antakya, Turkey

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Erdogan leads prayers on eve of fight for political life - Macau Business

Temperature in Singapore soars to 40-year high: officials – Macau Business

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Singapore reported its highest temperature in 40 years on Saturday, officials said, as a blistering heatwave burns through large parts of South and Southeast Asia.

Saturdays temperature of 37 degrees Celsius was the highest this year, and matches the record for a daily peak recorded in April 1983, the National Environment Agency said on Facebook.

The current warm and dry conditions are expected to continue tomorrow, the agency said on Saturday.

Short-duration showers are expected next week which may help to moderate the warm temperatures, it added.

May is normally one of the warmest months of the year, according to the NEA.

Some schools in the city-state have relaxed rules on uniforms over the rising mercury in recent days, according to local broadcaster Channel News Asia.

Vietnam reported a record temperature of 44.1 degrees Celsius last week, with its state electricity company warning that the national power system would come under strain this summer due to anticipated heatwaves.

Scientists say global warming is exacerbating adverse weather, with a recent report from the UNs Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warning that every increment of global warming will intensify multiple and concurrent hazards.

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Temperature in Singapore soars to 40-year high: officials - Macau Business

Trump as president in 2024 is not just possible, but likely: Historian – Fox News

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Historian and Hoover Institution senior fellow Niall Ferguson argued that former President Donald Trump is not only a strong candidate for reelection in 2024, but the most likely person to win and take back the White House.

"A second Trump act is not just possible. Its fast becoming my base case," Ferguson wrote in an op-ed for The Spectator.

Ferguson explained that even a sustained "campaign of lawfare" against the former president by his political enemies is not enough to stop him from coming back into the White House. In fact, "the prospect of him performing the perp walk attracts media coverage, and media coverage is the free publicity on which Trump has always thrived," he said.

TRUMP FIRES BACK AT CRITICS SLAMMING HIS TOWN HALL: DID THE RIGHT THING

Historian and Hoover Institution senior fellow Niall Ferguson argued that former President Donald Trump was not only a strong candidate for reelection in 2024, but the most likely person to win and take back the White House. (James Devaney/GC Images)

Trump was found liable for sexual abuse against writer E. Jean Carroll on May 9 in a verdict that fell short of the accusations of rape that Carroll made. Carroll alleged that Trump sexually abused her in a Manhattan department store nearly three decades ago, though she could not remember "if the alleged assault happened in 1995 or 1996," Ferguson pointed out.

But even that verdict helps bring attention to Trump, according to Ferguson. "Every column inch or minute of airtime his legal battles earn him is an inch or a minute less for his Republican rivals for the nomination," he wrote.

Ferguson also argued that Trump is the "clear frontrunner" among the Republican field for 2024. A Fox News survey in April showed that Trump maintained a solid, 53 percent lead in April among Republican primary voters, beating out Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis by 32 points.

DEMOCRATS TERRIFIED TRUMP COULD BEAT BIDEN IN 2024 REMATCH: 'BE VERY F---ING WORRIED'

DeSantis has still yet to officially declare for the presidency, though he is highly anticipated to do so.

DeSantis has still yet to officially declare for the presidency, though he is highly anticipated to do so.

But even DeSantis popularity among some of the Republican base far from guarantees him a chance at beating Trump. As Ferguson explained, the "Republican primary process favours candidates with early leads because most states award delegates on a winner takes all or winner takes most basis."

CNN FACING 'FURY' FROM STAFFERS OVER TRUMP TOWN HALL: 'IT FELT LIKE 2016 ALL OVER AGAIN'

It is a "lesson of history" that is clear, Ferguson said, and one that bodes well for Trump: "The Republican frontrunner usually wins the nomination, and a post-recession incumbent usually loses the presidential election."

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That's because a recession would also help boost Trumps chances for victory in 2024, Ferguson added, writing that it "does not need to be as severe as the Great Depression that destroyed Herbert Hoovers presidency. A plain vanilla recession will suffice."

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Trump as president in 2024 is not just possible, but likely: Historian - Fox News

DOJ seeks to prevent Trump deposition in Strzok and Page lawsuits – NBC News

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The Justice Department is seeking to stop a deposition with Donald Trump this month in lawsuits filed by two former FBI officials who have been frequent targets of criticism by the former president.

In a redacted court filing Thursday, Justice Department attorneys said Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar authorized an appeal to the U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals for Washington, D.C., unless a lower court judge reconsiders an earlier ruling allowing Trumps deposition to take place before a deposition with FBI Director Christopher Wray.

U.S. District Judge Amy Berman Jackson ruled in February that Trump and Wray could be deposed in the lawsuits, which Peter StrzokandLisa Page brought against the Justice Department and the FBI in 2019.

Justice Department attorneys said in Thursday's filing that they just recently learned that Trump's deposition has been scheduled for May 24, before any deposition for Wray.

Contrary to the request of the United States, Mr. Strzok seeks to depose former President Trump before Director Wray, thereby making it impossible to determine if the Directors deposition might obviate the need to depose the former President, Justice Department attorneys wrote in a 10-page motion to block Trump's deposition.

They asked the court to resolve the matter by Tuesday.

Lawyers for Strzok declined to comment. Attorneys for Page and Trump did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

In a court filing in March, the Justice Department said Trump has not requested an assertion of privilege over any of the information within the scope of the authorized depositions.

Jackson's ruling in February said the Trump and Wray depositions must be limited to two hours and to a narrow set of topics that were discussed at a sealed hearing.

Trump frequently targeted Strzok and Page during his presidency. They made headlines in December 2017 when it was announced that they had been removed from then-special counsel Robert Muellers investigation over text messages that disparaged Trump.

Pages lawsuit alleges privacy violations and Strzoks alleges wrongful termination, with both citing the release of text messages.

Page, who resigned as the FBIs counsel in May 2018, had argued in her lawsuitthat thetext messagesshe exchanged with Strzok were unlawfully released and that attacks by Trumpand his allies had damaged her reputation.

Strzok's lawyers are seeking Trump's deposition to determine whether he met with and directly pressured FBI and Justice Department officials to fire Strzok or directed any White House staff members to do so.

If the deposition moves ahead as planned, it would come on the heels of a finding by a federal jury in New York that Trump is liable for sexual abuse and defamation in a lawsuit filed by writer E. Jean Carroll. Trump has indicated he will appeal the verdict.

He also faces 34 felony counts of falsifying business records related to hush money payments from 2016. Trump pleaded not guilty last month to all charges.

Zo Richards

Zo Richards is the evening politics reporter for NBC News.

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DOJ seeks to prevent Trump deposition in Strzok and Page lawsuits - NBC News

Judge agrees to postpone Trump deposition in FBI lawsuit – CBS News

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Washington In the same Washington, D.C., courthouse where the Justice Department has been convening grand juries to investigate former President Donald Trump's actions around the 2020 presidential election and his handling of classified documents, federal prosecutors managing a separate case were successful Friday in their request to delay a Trump deposition that had been scheduled for later this month in a four-year-old civil lawsuit filed by former FBI officials.

Former FBI counterintelligence official Peter Strzok and a one-time attorney at the Bureau, Lisa Page, sued the Justice Department after they were both fired during the federal probe into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election. In the course of the investigation, text messages exchanged by the two revealed anti-Trump sentiments.

Strzok's lawsuit claims he was unjustly fired from the job for political reasons and seeks reinstatement at the FBI and back pay. Page argues the text messages were unlawfully released and violated her privacy.

In a minute order issued Friday evening, Judge Amy Berman Jackson ruled in favor of the Justice Department's request that FBI Director Christopher Wray be deposed before Strzok has a chance to question Trump.

click to expand

Both Strzok and Page have moved to depose numerous former and current government officials, and earlier this year, Jackson ruled Strzok had the right to interview Trump and FWray. But according to an emergency filing on Thursday, federal prosecutors say Trump's deposition, which was supposed to take place May 24, was scheduled before any such meeting was set for Wray. The Justice Department said this violates long-standing norms that federal officials are to be questioned in order of their seniority.

"Contrary to the request of the United States, Mr. Strzok seeks to depose former President Trump before Director Wray," prosecutors wrote Thursday, "thereby making it impossible to determine if the Director's deposition might obviate the need to depose the former President."

They asked the judge to order a new schedule for the depositions and threatened to take the issue to the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals if she did not agree.

"The Solicitor General authorized the government to petition the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit for a writ of mandamus as to this Court's determination that former President Trump may be deposed in this matter," the Justice Department revealed in the filing. Writs of Mandamus are rare orders issued by higher courts that supersede findings by lower court judges.

"For decades, the D.C. Circuit and virtually every other court of appeals have recognized that subjecting high-level government officialsto say nothing of current or former Presidents 'to oral deposition is not normally countenanced,'" prosecutors wrote in their redacted motion.

In her order Friday, Jackson wrote that "the parties have done nothing more than wrangle over the order of the two depositions."

"The government seems chagrined that the Court did not order that the deposition of the FBI Director be completed first, but it may recall that it was the Court's view that it was Director Wray, the only current high-ranking public official in the group of proposed deponents, whose ongoing essential duties fell most squarely under the protection of the doctrine in question," Jackson wrote. "However, in order to get the parties -- who apparently still cannot agree on anything -- over this impasse, it is hereby ORDERED that the deposition of Christopher Wray proceed first, rendering the instant motion moot."

Attorneys for both Strzok and Page's legal team did not immediately respond to Jackson's order when reached by CBS News.

Earlier this year, the White House said it would not assert executive privilege over Trump's testimony and thereby shield him from deposition, and federal prosecutors said the former president did not request the privilege.

Strzok and Page's text messages and involvement in the Russia investigation fueled much of Trump's ire toward the FBI during the Mueller investigation, alleging anti-Trump views inside the Justice Department at the time. An inspector general report found that while the conduct was "completely antithetical to the core values of the department," there was no evidence that any bias ultimately changed the outcome of the investigation.

In his lawsuit, Strzok alleges "The FBI fired [him] because of his protected political speech in violation of his rights under the First Amendment to the Constitution of the United States." And Page contends the release of the text messages was unlawful and led her to be the subject of "frequent attacks by the President of the United States, as well as his allies and supporters."

The Justice Department asked Judge Jackson to respond to their request to block Trump's testimony by Tuesday.

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Judge agrees to postpone Trump deposition in FBI lawsuit - CBS News

Pollsters worry Trump problem is ‘back with a vengeance’ – POLITICO

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And now, with Trump expanding his lead over his GOP primary rivals, pollsters are fretting about a bloc of the electorate that has made his support nearly impossible to measure accurately.

Its looking a lot like Trump is going to be on the ballot next November, said Democratic pollster Andrew Baumann. So that is all back with a vengeance.

Its not that Trump is some mystical force. The problems are practical. In 2020, he drew out significant numbers of people who had rarely if ever voted and who either werent included in polls or refused to participate in them. Trump trashed the polls that found him consistently trailing Biden. This created a feedback loop that made his supporters even less likely to respond, making the polls even more wrong.

Baumann was among the attendees and presenters at this weeks American Association for Public Opinion Researchs annual conference, a yearly gathering of pollsters from the academic, media and campaign worlds.

That organization has been grappling with the future of political polling for decades. Just looking at the polls over the past two federal election cycles will give you whiplash. By most measures, last years midterms represented the pinnacle of election polling. FiveThirtyEights post-election evaluation found that polls were more accurate than any year since 1998.

But that came two years after the preceding presidential race, when national polls were further off than they had been in 40 years, and the state polls were the worst in recorded history.

The specter of yet another polling failure is looming over the industrys continuing efforts to overhaul its methods.

Among public pollsters, CNN made some of the most dramatic changes to its methodology. Mostly abandoning its longstanding process of random-digit phone sampling, the network and its polling vendor SSRS randomly selected street addresses for its national surveys and mailed out solicitations to complete a poll online or by dialing a number.

For much of their state polling which requires faster turnaround times to poll statewide races like those for governor or Senate some voters were surveyed off a file of registered voters and contacted either by email or telephone, depending on the best contact information available. Others were added from SSRS existing panel of respondents who said they were registered to vote.

The results were remarkable. CNNs polls correctly identified the winner in eight of the nine major statewide races they surveyed missing only the Nevada Senate race and half of the candidate vote shares were accurate within a single percentage point.

We were within the error margin on just about every [poll] we did, said Jennifer Agiesta, the director of polling and election analytics at CNN. So I feel pretty good about how these turned out. I would say that does give me some confidence between now and 2024.

But Agiesta said its too soon to tell if the same problems that plagued pollsters in 2020 will resurface.

I dont think that [Trumps] comments on polling and the way that he presented his views on polling to his supporters were helpful in terms of response rate in 2020, added Agiesta, who also began a one-year term as president of the pollsters organization at this weeks conference. But I dont know if thats going to be the same in future elections.

The Democratic polling firm Global Strategy Group is trying a significant methodological change on the back end. According to research the firm presented at the AAPOR conference, their 2022 polls were made more accurate by using voters self-reported 2020 general-election presidential vote as a variable a practice numerous others have also adopted, though its still far from universal.

That, in addition to other adjustments like trying to include voters who arent as politically active, was an important discovery, because Global Strategy Group like pollsters across the public and private campaign worlds significantly underestimated Republicans in its 2020 polling.

We think that the stuff that weve done to correct for that between accounting for past vote history in the 2020 election and looking at how important politics is to a persons identity are going to be able to capture that and correct for these biases that really bit us in the ass in 2020, said Baumann, who is a partner at Global Strategy Group.

The phenomenon that led a segment of Trump voters to boycott the polls is similar to other trends, including those picked up in new polling this week from YouGov, which found that Republicans trust almost all media outlets less than Democrats, with the exception of conservative media.

If anybody wants to really be honest, it is going to be an enormous challenge if it indeed is going to be Trump [against] Biden in 24, said Don Levy, the director of the Siena College Research Institute, which conducted polling in 2022 for the New York Times and the local cable news outlet chain Spectrum News. Because we know that that voter is disinclined to speak to us.

But thats only part of the problems that pollsters have identified since 2020. Its not just that voters closely aligned with Trump are harder to reach less-engaged voters of all stripes are less likely to participate, too.

And, the evidence suggests, the best way to reach those voters who very well may cast ballots in high-turnout presidential elections like 2020 but are less likely to participate in midterms remains the traditional and expensive form of phone surveys. Some pollsters have replaced or eschewed that method entirely to save money.

Not all pollsters see a sharp dividing line between 2022 and 2024. Anna Greenberg, a Democratic pollster whose 2022 clients included Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), said that while Trump wasnt a candidate for office last year, he was still a major issue in the midterm campaign.

Trump was on the ballot, said Greenberg. Between Mar-a-Lago documents and the Jan. 6 commission, and then certainly at the statewide level, the so-called MAGA candidates: Blake Masters, [Mehmet] Oz, [Doug] Mastriano there was so much coverage of these being his candidates.

Overall, the mood at this weeks conference was mostly positive, riding high from 2022 even with the prospects of another Trump-sparked miss looming in next years presidential election.

Im still worried about 2024, said Baumann. I dont think that any pollster should be out there feeling superconfident that we have everything fixed, because we were confident that we did after 2016. And we didnt.

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Pollsters worry Trump problem is 'back with a vengeance' - POLITICO

The media is not equipped to handle the return of Donald Trump – Fortune

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When Donald Trump ran for president in 2016, it quickly became clear that much of the media was not up to the challenge of covering a candidate who openly lied, espoused racist ideologies, bragged about sexual assault, and encouraged his supporters to embrace a toxic vision for America by playing on their fears and insecurities.

Part of the problem was that coverage of Trump was a ratings boon for the struggling news industrywith the Trump bump sending record numbers of viewers and readers to newspapers, online publications, and TV shows. It was intoxicating for the industry. News channels were captivated by Trumps roadshow, famously airing empty podiums as they waited for him to arrive, instead of going live to his opponent Hillary Clinton giving a speech about her plans to raise incomes for working families. Newspaper journalists spent countless hours in red state diners trying to probe the psyche of Trump voters as if they were unknowable mysteries, instead of people who regularly expressed exactly who they were and what they were about.

Even so, the American media establishment was blindsided by Trumps 2016 victory, and vastly underestimated his ability to carry out his far-right agenda as president. While he was in the White House, many in the press fell back upon euphemisms and false equivalencies, as Perry Bacon, Jr. wrote recently in the Washington Post: They played down Trumps radicalism to appear neutral and objective, to get access to Trump and his top aides or to appeal to Republican officials and consumers. And even now, they continue to curry favor with Trump and traffic in the rhetoric of both sidesas if there is more than one side to bigotry.

After Trump lost the 2020 election, fomented an insurrection, and has continued, to this day, to promote the big lie, that he was robbed of a second term as president, I dared hope that the media had learned its lesson about how to cover Trump on the campaign trail.

In these early days of the 2024 election cycle, though, it would seem that nothing was learned at all.

Trump looked tired when he strolled onto the New Hampshire stage for CNNs town hall on Wednesday, visibly wearing every one of his 76 years. The day before, a federal jury had found him liable for sexually abusing E. Jean Carroll in the 1990s, and then defaming her. Still, CNN opted to move forward with the televised event, moderated by This Morning anchor and chief correspondent Kaitlan Collins in front of an audience of Republicans and Independent voters inclined to vote for hima curious choice, at best.

From the very first moment to the abrupt last, Trump was exactly who he has long revealed himself to be.

The candidate was bombastic, arrogant, and rude. He lied time and time again. When Collins, who came across as well-prepared and well-versed in all the political issues, corrected his lies in real time, he spoke over her, smirking as he declared his warped version of the truth to be the final word on everything from election fraud to the Jan. 6 insurrection to the debt ceiling. He continued to denigrate Carroll (who now says shes considering suing him again). And save for the final minutes of the town hall, Collins ended up looking helpless in the face of the former presidents performanceexactly as he and his camp wanted it.

At times, Trump looked like a lunatic, babbling incoherent nonsense. At opportune moments, he threw out the words sure to rile up his base. Radical. Border. Patriot. Nasty person. Rarely did he answer the question being asked, instead using each one as an invitation to continue discussing whatever he wanted. The audience applauded and laughed and applauded and laughed. That was, perhaps, the most disappointing aspect of the prime time TV event, watched by 3.3 million people.

But the morning after this debacle was even more disappointing, perhaps, when CNNs chairman, Chris Licht, congratulated Collins on a masterful performance and himself on his bravery in airing it. I absolutely, unequivocally believe America was served very well by what we did last night, he declared on the networks morning editorial call. He went on to say that Kaitlan pressed him again and again, and made news, made a lot of news.

Lets be clear: Media organizations are, mostly, businesses. They are struggling businesses in the midst of a downward spiral, making it harder to walk away from a spectacle that will bring them a big audience, even if the spectacle is destructive, corrosive to democracy, and criminal. Any one of CNNs rival networks would likely have jumped at the opportunity to air the town hall. I would like to believe, however, that they would have done so with slightly more integrity.

Most media enterprises employ great journalists who know how to call out liars and criminalsseveral did so at CNN, criticizing their own employers. But those people, doing the right thing and holding power to account, cant compete with the spectacle. Trump and people like him know this, which is why they rarely face the press without bringing their own circus to town.

This town hall will consume peoples attention until we move on to the next garish spectacle. But there are far more critical issues we should be discussing: That Trump remains the frontrunner to represent his party by a wide margin; that the GOP considers him a viable candidate despite everything that has happened; that his base remains unrelentingly loyal to him. These are real problems. In the face of all that, the fact that CNN gave him a primetime platform for monologuing lies and misinformation, thereby conferring legitimacy on his ideological viewpoints, is a real problem.

In the discourse cycle following the town hall, some pundits have raised the specter of ideological silosadmonishing those who criticize Wednesdays farce that we shouldnt only surround ourselves with people who reflect our values and beliefs. But those of us who find Trump odious are not living in a silo. We absolutely see and understand that half the country is fine with who Trump is and what he stands for.

Bigotry is not merely a different opinion that we should expose ourselves to. It isnt an intellectual exercise or a useful contribution to a range of diverse viewpoints. It is an evil that must be eradicated. It must be identified as unacceptable, as often as necessary. And it should be denied the oxygen of the media. Freedom of speech does not guarantee unfettered access to media coverage.

Time and again, journalists say they just dont know how to cover Trump, that he is impossible to cover. But he is only impossible to cover because he receives an inordinate amount of the media attention he so desperately craves. He is impossible to cover because he does whatever he wants, and no one truly challenges him. He is impossible to cover because we continue to let him dictate the terms of engagement.

Its time to stop. If journalism is really about truth, there is nothing newsworthy about giving free airtime to the prime minister of mendacity. Trump has been found guilty of crimes and faces several other criminal investigations. He disdains democracy and openly embraces autocracy.

There should be standards for people seeking to lead the United States. Donald Trump does not meet those standards, by any measure. We should stop using euphemisms when it comes to his words and deeds. We should stop pretending that because he is the leading candidate, what he has to say is automatically newsworthy. When he refuses to speak truthfully or acknowledge election results, we should simply stop the interview and walk away. Enough is enough; too much is at stake. We should protect, at all costs, the many vulnerable populations that will be made less safe in a second Trump presidency. No matter what we believe or which party we are aligned with, we should want better for this country, for our communities, for the world we are a part of.

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The media is not equipped to handle the return of Donald Trump - Fortune

Trump Town Hall Shows His Second-Term Plan: Shattering Even … – The New York Times

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In little over an hour, Donald J. Trump suggested the United States should default on its debts for the first time in history, injected doubt over the countrys commitment to defending Ukraine from Russias invasion, dangled pardons for most of the Capitol rioters convicted of crimes, and refused to say he would abide by the results of the next presidential election.

The second-term vision Mr. Trump sketched out at a CNN town-hall event on Wednesday would represent a sharp departure from core American values that have been at the bedrock of the nation for decades: its creditworthiness, its credibility with international allies and its adherence to the rule of law at home.

Mr. Trumps provocations were hardly shocking. His time in office was often defined by a the-rules-dont-apply-to-me approach to governance and a lack of interest in upholding the post-World War II national security order, and at 76 he is not bound to change much.

But his performance nonetheless signaled an escalation of his bid to bend the government to his wishes as he runs again for the White House, only this time with a greater command of the Republican Partys pressure points and a plan to demolish the federal bureaucracy.

The televised event crystallized that the version of Mr. Trump who could return to office in 2025 vowing to be a vehicle of retribution is likely to govern as he did in 2020. In that final year of his presidency, Mr. Trump cleared out people perceived as disloyal and promoted those who would fully indulge his instincts things he did not always do during the first three years of his administration, when his establishmentarian advisers often talked him out of drastic policy changes.

From my perspective, there was an evolution of Donald Trump over his four years, with 2020 I think being the most dramatic example of him the real him, said Mark T. Esper, who served as Mr. Trumps defense secretary. And I suspect that would be his starting point if he were to win office in 2024.

In a statement, Jason Miller, a senior adviser to Mr. Trump, dismissed criticisms of the former president, who he said spoke directly to Americans suffering from the Biden decline and President Trumps desire to bring about security and economic prosperity on Day 1. He added, Understandably, this vision is not shared by the failed warmongers, political losers and career bureaucratic hacks many of whom he fired or defeated who have created all of Americas problems.

At the town-hall event, Mr. Trump almost cavalierly floated ideas that would reshape the nations standing in the world, vowing to end the Ukraine war within 24 hours and declining to commit to supporting the country, an American ally that has relied on billions of dollars in aid to hold off the Russian onslaught.

Do you want Ukraine to win this war? CNNs Kaitlan Collins pressed.

Mr. Trump evaded.

I dont think in terms of winning and losing, he replied, adding that he was focused on winding down the conflict. I think in terms of getting it settled so we stop killing all these people. He did not mention that the killing was initiated by Russia.

Senator Chris Coons of Delaware, a Democrat who sits on the Foreign Relations Committee and is close to President Biden, said there were fears internationally of Mr. Trumps return.

His performance last night just reinforced what so many of our allies and partners have told me concerns them over the past two years that a return of Trump to the White House would be a return to the chaos, he said.

Some Republican elected officials who are skeptical of U.S. aid to Ukraine praised Mr. Trumps performance. Senator J.D. Vance of Ohio called his Ukraine answer real statesmanship.

Mr. Miller argued that Mr. Trump had an entire term with no new wars, and hes ready to do it again.

In New Hampshire, the audience of Republicans lapped up Mr. Trumps one-liners and slew of insults to Ms. Collins (a nasty person, he jeered, echoing his old attack on Hillary Clinton), to former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, to E. Jean Carroll, the woman whom a jury this week found Mr. Trump liable of sexually abusing and defaming. And the crowd expressed no dissent as he again tried to rewrite the history of Jan. 6, 2021, when his supporters stormed the Capitol in an attempt to overturn his election loss.

It was a beautiful day, Mr. Trump said.

If he becomes president again, he said, he would most likely pardon a large portion of his supporters who were convicted over their actions on Jan. 6. They were there with love in their heart, he said of the crowd, which he beamed had been the largest of his career.

You see what youre going to get, which is a presidency untethered to the truth and untethered to the constitutional order, said Senator Mitt Romney of Utah, the Republican Partys most prominent Trump critic remaining on Capitol Hill. The idea that people whove been convicted of crimes are all going to be pardoned, or for the most part pardoned, is quite a departure from the principles of the Constitution and of our party.

Mr. Trump also embraced the possibility of defaulting in the debt-ceiling standoff between President Biden and congressional Republicans, an act that economists say could spell catastrophe for the global economy.

You might as well do it now because youll do it later, because we have to save this country, Mr. Trump said. Our country is dying.

Former Gov. Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas, a Republican who is running a long-shot campaign for president in 2024, said Mr. Trumps potential return to the White House posed an enormous risk for the nation.

He has shown such a disrespect for our institutions of government that are critical to our democracy, Mr. Hutchinson said, adding that he had been particularly unnerved by the talk of defaulting. He talked like it was OK for the United States to default on the debt. And thats like putting his past business practices of using bankruptcy as a tool and applying that to the government.

Despite such warnings from old-guard Republicans, the cheers from the conservative crowd in New Hampshire during the CNN event were an audible reminder of Mr. Trumps sizable lead in Republican primary polls.

Karl Rove, the architect of George W. Bushs two presidential victories, said in an interview that for true believers and ardent supporters, it was a boffo performance by Mr. Trump. But he said that other Republicans would now be forced to answer for a big pile of noxious material on their doorsteps.

Do other Republicans believe that rioters who attacked police, broke into the Capitol on Jan. 6 and, in some cases, attempted to overthrow the government should be pardoned? Mr. Rove asked. Do other Republicans agree that it doesnt matter if the United States government defaults on its debt? Do other Republicans not care who wins in Ukraine?

One of the most controversial policies of Mr. Trumps presidency was the forced separation of migrant parents from their children at the southern border, which Mr. Trump reversed himself on in June 2018 after a huge backlash.

But during the town hall on Wednesday, Mr. Trump suggested he would revive it. Well, when you have that policy, people dont come, he said. If a family hears theyre going to be separated, they love their family, they dont come.

Casual observers might be inclined, as some did in 2016, to take Mr. Trumps most extreme statements, such as his casual embrace of allowing the nation to default, seriously but not literally.

But underneath Mr. Trumps loose talk are detailed plans to bulldoze the federal civil service. These proposals have been incubating for more than two years within a network of well-funded and Trump-connected outside groups.

In the final, chaotic weeks of the 2020 election, Mr. Trumps lawyers, having crafted a novel legal theory in strict secrecy, released an executive order known as Schedule F that aimed to wipe out most employment protections against firing for tens of thousands of federal workers.

Mr. Trump ran out of time to carry out that plan. But a constellation of conservative groups has been preparing to revive the effort if he regains the presidency in 2025.

Pressed by Ms. Collins, Mr. Trump would not say he was willing to accept the 2024 results.

Former Representative Liz Cheney, who lost her Republican primary bid for re-election after helping lead the Houses investigation into Jan. 6, said of the Trump town hall, Virtually everything Donald Trump says enhances the case against him.

Donald Trump made clear yet again that he fully intended to corruptly obstruct Congresss official proceeding to count electoral votes in order to overturn the 2020 election, said Ms. Cheney, who has made opposing Mr. Trumps return to power her top political priority since her defeat last year. He says what happened on Jan. 6 was justified, and he celebrates those who attacked our Capitol.

On Wednesday, Mr. Trump also denounced his former vice president, Mike Pence, for upholding the 2020 election results and waved off the suggestion that Mr. Pence had been at risk on Jan. 6, even though the Secret Service tried to evacuate him from the Capitol.

I dont think he was in any danger, Mr. Trump said.

Marc Short, who was with Mr. Pence that day as his chief of staff, called out Mr. Trumps double standard in defending violence by his supporters while claiming to broadly stand for law and order.

Many of us called for the prosecution of B.L.M. rioters when they destroyed private businesses, Mr. Short said, referring to Black Lives Matter supporters. Its hard to see how theres a different threshold when rioters injure law enforcement, threaten public officials and loot the Capitol.

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Trump Town Hall Shows His Second-Term Plan: Shattering Even ... - The New York Times

As Trumps lies and scandals deepen, the GOP responds as usual with silence – The Guardian US

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Donald Trump

That Republican elders dare not alienate the ex-presidents fanbase shows how fully he has shaped the party in his image

One day he was found liable for sexual abuse and defamation. The next he was on prime-time television pushing election lies, defending his own coup attempt and refusing to back Ukraine.

To his millions of critics, it was another week that proved Donald Trump is unfit for office and dangerous to democracy. But to the top leaders of Trumps Republican party, it was another week to keep heads down and say nothing.

Kevin McCarthy, the speaker of the House of Representatives; Mitch McConnell, the minority leader in the Senate; leading state governors and even most of Trumps potential rivals for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024 have made a habit of siding with him or remaining silent as each scandal comes and goes.

Critics say their complicity underlines how comprehensively Trump took over the Republican party and shaped it in his own image. Even though McConnell and others privately loathe Trump and wish him gone, they dare not alienate his fervent support base. Rick Wilson, a former Republican consultant and co-founder of the Lincoln Project, an anti-Trump group, sums it up in one word: fear.

They are afraid of the mob, theyre afraid of the horde, theyre afraid of the anger and the craziness and the rage and the threats that come any time a Republican elected official really stands up and opposes Donald Trump, Wilson said.

He added: None of the major elected officials McConnell, McCarthy, the big state governors are going to come out and say what they believe and know: that he is a monstrous figure and he is a dangerous figure.

Trump ran against the Republican establishment in 2016, exciting a grassroots army of supporters and eventually bending the party to his will. His victory over Democrat Hillary Clinton in the presidential election and pursuit of an agenda that fit many Republican priorities, from sweeping tax cuts to rightwing supreme court justices, persuaded many in leadership to overlook his chaotic style.

But relations with McConnell soured over time, culminating in the 6 January 2021 insurrection at the US Capitol, for which he said Trump was practically and morally responsible. The former president has branded McConnell an old crow and repeatedly hurled racist insults at his Taiwanese-born wife, former transportation secretary Elaine Chao.

Even so, despite their mutual animosity, the minority leader made clear this week that he will support Trump if he is the Republican nominee in 2024. Asked about the former presidents improving poll numbers, McConnell told CNN: Im going to support the nominee of our party for president, no matter who that may be.

Meanwhile Steve Daines, chair of the Senate Republicans campaign arm, has endorsed Trump for president in what many see as an attempt to curry favour with him and curb his meddling in next years Senate elections. Trumps backing of extremists in last years midterms cost McConnell control of the Senate an outcome that he is eager to avoid repeating.

Wilson, author of Everything Trump Touches Dies, commented: He can say, See, Mr Trump, Im loyal to you. I love you. Im a good person. You should listen to me. Please, please, please dont tell Tudor Dixon she should run again or dont tell Kari Lake she should run again. These are very transactional and tactical approaches but nonetheless they are approaches that these people are willing to do to survive in a war with Trump.

He added: There is no Republican party. Its just Trump. It is only about his desires and his political power, his political goals. If you told the average Republican elected official, you have to cut off your arm to get an endorsement from Trump, theyre going to ask you for a saw and some Band-Aids.

McCarthy, for his part, also seemed shaken by the events of January 6, but later that month he visited Trumps Mar-a-Lago home in Florida, signalling that all was forgiven. When McCarthy was elected speaker earlier this year after a gruelling series of votes, he paid tribute to Trump for working the phones to help him secure victory.

Since then he has swatted aside every legal controversy, including last month when, as Trump became the first former president to face criminal charges, McCarthy tweeted that the Manhattan district attorney, Alvin Bragg, had weaponized our sacred system of justice against President Donald Trump.

This week, in a civil case, a New York jury determined that Trump sexually abused and defamed the writer E Jean Carroll, awarding her $5m in damages (Trump is appealing the verdict). That alone would be enough to sink most political careers but McCarthy repeatedly dodged the issue when asked to comment by reporters on Capitol Hill.

Other Republicans went further in expressing their fealty to Trump. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida told reporters: That jurys a joke. The whole case is a joke. Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina added: When it comes to Donald Trump, the New York legal system is off the rails. Former vice-president Mike Pence told NBC News: I would tell you, in my four and a half years serving alongside the president, I never heard or witnessed behaviour of that nature.

The following day, Trump gave an unhinged, falsehood-filled performance in a town hall event broadcast live on the CNN network. He vowed to pardon a large portion of the January 6 rioters, suggested that Republicans should let the government default on its debts and refused to call Vladimir Putin a war criminal over the killing of Ukrainian civilians.

Strikingly, many in the audience in Manchester, New Hampshire, burst into applause and egged Trump on. When he made fun of Carroll they laughed. It was a glimpse of the Make America great again base that keeps party leaders awake at night.

Donna Brazile, a former chairperson of the Democratic National Committee, said: The voters stand by Donald Trump and as long as he has a grip on the Republican party and its voters, the leaders cannot step out ahead of where the voters are.

People should not condemn these voters, these voters who need to be educated, listened to and respected. After all, over 70 million Americans supported Donald Trump in the last election. Thats nothing to sneeze at. Thats voters who know what he stands for, know what he represents and still theyre with him.

She added: As long as theyre sticking with Trump, I do believe that the leaders of the Republican party will also stand by Trump. Regardless of what they say behind his back, theyll stick with Trump.

Even in the Trump era, the Republican party is not a monolith. The sexual abuse verdict prompted criticism from senators including John Cornyn, Mitt Romney, Mike Rounds and John Thune. In an interview with Punchbowl News, Bill Cassidy asked: What if it was your sister? How could it not create concern?

After the chaotic CNN town hall, Chris Christie, a former governor of New Jersey, described Trump as Putins puppet and there was condemnation from Chris Sununu, the governor of New Hampshire, and Asa Hutchinson, a former governor of Arkansas running for president. But these are exceptions that prove the rule. Other confirmed or likely primary candidates steered clear in what is now a familiar pattern.

After all, the Trump era is littered with the political corpses of Republicans who tried to oppose him only to suffer online abuse, public heckling, death threats or retribution at the ballot box. Senators Bob Corker, Jeff Flake and Ben Sasse and Representatives Justin Amash, Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger are among those who quit or were purged. They left behind a party that increasingly resembles Trump.

Kurt Bardella, a Democratic strategist, said: They have refused to divorce themselves from someone that they know is both a political loser for them and who represents things that are completely destructive to our democracy. After everything that we have seen, after everything that the Republican party itself has endured in terms of its underperforming in multiple election cycles, the only reason why they havent divorced themselves from Donald Trump is because they dont want to.

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As Trumps lies and scandals deepen, the GOP responds as usual with silence - The Guardian US

Ask PolitiFact: Will Donald Trump need to register as a sex offender? – PolitiFact

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A jury found former President Donald Trump liable for sexually abusing writer E. Jean Carroll at a New York department store almost three decades ago and also found that Trump defamed her.

The jury was split on whether Trump was liable for raping Carroll, but awarded her a $5 million judgment. Trump plans to appeal the verdict, his lawyer said.

Because the case is civil, not criminal, Trump will not be facing prison time.

But some social media users wondered whether Trump, the most prominent 2024 candidate among Republicans, would have to take another legal step: registering as a sex offender.

Facebook posts by the group Occupy Democrats suggest that Trump should register as a sex offender, saying "no one is above the law."

But thats not what New York law says for civil cases.

Carroll sued Trump after the state of New York passed the Adult Survivors Act, giving adult survivors of sexual assault a one-year window to file lawsuits against their attackers, regardless of when the abuse occurred.

Under the states guidelines, someone convicted of a sex offense must register as a sex offender upon returning to the community after a probation, payment of a fine, jail or prison sentence. These laws are common across the U.S.

But Trump did not face criminal charges, so these laws do not apply in his case.

He was found liable, not convicted, of sexual abuse. So, the sex registry law doesnt apply and he has no duty to register as a sex offender.

The standard of burden of proof in a civil case is by "preponderance of the evidence," a lower standard than in a criminal case, which requires proof "beyond a reasonable doubt."

To prove something by "preponderance of the evidence" means that someone must convince the jury that it is more likely than not that the defendant is responsible for the harm suffered by the plaintiff.

"The distinction is critical, because the standard of proof required for a criminal conviction is much higher than that for a civil judgment, like Carrolls," said Maggie Gardner, professor of civil procedure at Cornell Law School.

Gardner added that there are more procedural and constitutional safeguards for criminal defendants, and more limitations on what evidence can be admitted in criminal trials.

"It is important that the registration of sex offenders is limited to those criminally convicted because having to register carries significant limitations on ones liberty," she said.

Read more Ask PolitiFact stories.

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Ask PolitiFact: Will Donald Trump need to register as a sex offender? - PolitiFact

Surprise: ExWhite House Employees Say Donald Trump Behaved Grossly With Women While President – Vanity Fair

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By now youve likely heard the news that on Tuesday, Donald Trump was found liable for sexually abusing (and defaming) writer E. Jean Carroll, and was ordered to pay her $5 million. Given that Trump has spent decades evading and all repercussions for his actions; has been accused by more than two dozen women of sexual misconduct (he has denied all allegations); and literally claimed on tape that its okay for stars to sexually assault people, the outcome felt monumental. And by the way, if youre wondering whether Trumpnow a certified sexual predatorrefrained from behaving inappropriately with women while he was serving as president, the answer is: Of course he didnt.

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Speaking to CNN, Alyssa Farah Griffin, former White House director of strategic communicationsandassistant to the president, told host Jake Tapper: I have countless pieces of what I considered impropriety in the White House that I brought to the chief of staff because I thought the way he engaged with women was dangerous.

You brought to Mark Meadows, the chief of staff, or other chiefs of staff, incidents that you witnessed of Donald Trump behaving inappropriately with women? Tapper asked.

I did as well as former White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham and others, Farah Griffin said. Nothing that rises to [E. Jean Carroll] level but things that I would consider improper and that I had a duty to report.

Incidentally, Stephanie Grisham also appeared on CNN on Tuesday, and she told anchor Erin Burnett: There was specific stafferthat [Trump] would request for her to be on constant trips when it wasnt her turnhe one time had one of my other deputies bring her back so that they could look at her ass is what he said to him. And I wrote about this in my book so this is nothing new for me to be saying publiclyI sat down and talked to her at one point asked her if she was uncomfortable. I tried everything I could to ensure she was never alone with him. I did take it to a couple different chiefs of staff including Mark Meadowsat the end of the day what could they do other than go in there and say, This isnt good sir, and you know Donald Trump will do what Donald Trump wants to dowhen youre dealing with the president of the United States, again, theres no HR group or HR representative to go to, to talk to about these kinds of things.

Grisham added: With this one staffer it was really bad, to the point that I was extremely uncomfortableevery senior staff member knew itit happened with her a lot. I did everything I could to keep her off of trips actually and to stay with her if she was alone because I was really nervous about what could happen.

In other news re: Trump and yesterdays verdict, members of the Republican Party have, not surprisingly, lined up to shamelessly defend the guy. Marco Rubio declared, The whole case is a joke, while Senator Tommy Tuberville, last seen trying to help Trump overturn the 2020 election, said the outcome makes me want to vote for him twice.

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Surprise: ExWhite House Employees Say Donald Trump Behaved Grossly With Women While President - Vanity Fair

Why the Anti-Trump Republican Primary Has Yet to Emerge – The New York Times

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Just a few months ago, the Republican presidential primary seemed as if it might include a frank and vigorous debate about the leadership and limitations of Donald J. Trump.

But any appetite for criticism of Mr. Trump among Republicans has nearly evaporated in a very short time. Voters rallied around him after his criminal indictment in March on charges related to hush money for a porn star, and potential rivals have faltered, with few willing to take direct aim at the former president and front-runner for the nomination.

In a live town hall on CNN on Wednesday, the cheers for every falsehood and insult that Mr. Trump uttered under tough questioning by a moderator showed there was little to no daylight between Mr. Trump and the Republican base. A quirky effort to disrupt the love-in by Chris Christie a potential rival who bought Facebook ads to supply audience members with skeptical questions such as Why are you afraid of debating? went nowhere.

In surveys and focus groups, a fair share of Republican voters say that they would prefer a less polarizing, more electable nominee. But a near taboo against criticizing Mr. Trump has made it hard for rivals, apart from Mr. Christie and one or two others near the bottom of polls, to stand out.

In what looks like a rerun of the 2016 Republican primary, almost none of Mr. Trumps competitors have openly gone after him, despite his glaring vulnerabilities. Instead, they are hoping now as then that he will somehow self-destruct, leaving them to inherit his voters.

After a jury found Mr. Trump liable for sexual abuse and defamation of the writer E. Jean Carroll on Tuesday, Mike Pence, the former vice president, who is weighing a 2024 campaign, declined to criticize Mr. Trump. In an interview with NBC News, Mr. Pence said it was just one more story focusing on my former running mate that I know is a great fascination to members of the national media, but I just dont think its where the American people are focused.

Other 2024 candidates either defended Mr. Trump, such as the entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, or played down the verdict, including Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor. Ms. Haley, who announced her candidacy in February, even defended Mr. Trump this week for threatening to skip Republican primary debates. With the numbers he has now, why would he go get on a debate stage and risk that? she said.

Only two 2024 hopefuls found the verdict in the Carroll case to be disqualifying for a would-be president: Mr. Christie and Asa Hutchinson, the former Arkansas governor. Mr. Hutchinson criticized Mr. Trumps contempt for the rule of law.

Several months ago, polling had suggested Mr. Trump could be a potentially weak candidate, with only 25 to 35 percent support from Republican voters in high-quality surveys. The Republican National Committee promised an autopsy of the 2022 midterms that was expected to address Mr. Trumps role in the partys surprising losses.

But today, the lane in the Republican primary for a candidate who is openly critical of Mr. Trump seems to be closing.

Mr. Hutchinsons long-shot campaign has failed to gain notice. Mr. Christie, the former governor of New Jersey, who has promised a decision this month on whether he will run, also has yet to generate much interest. Even the occasionally critical Mr. Pence, who mildly suggested Mr. Trump would be accountable to history for the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, is struggling for affirmation from the Republican base.

And the R.N.C. autopsy of the midterms? A draft reportedly did not mention Mr. Trump at all.

David Kochel, a Republican strategist who advised Jeb Bush when he ran against Mr. Trump in 2016, said there was no opportunity for a candidate openly critical of Mr. Trump in the 2024 primary.

Voters have seen Trump as the most attacked president of their lifetimes, and they have an allergic reaction to one of their own doing it, Mr. Kochel said. Hes built up these incredible antibodies, in part stemming from how the base perceives he has been treated.

A CBS News poll released this month found that among likely Republican primary voters, only an insignificant handful, 7 percent, wanted a candidate who criticizes Trump.

The three candidates whom voters are the least open to considering, the survey found, are those who have criticized Mr. Trump to varying degrees: Mr. Christie, Mr. Hutchinson and Mr. Pence.

David Carney, a Republican strategist in New Hampshire, said he had expected the race to be more competitive by now, but a turning point occurred in March with Mr. Trumps indictment in New York.

It fell into the presidents narrative of the past five years, Mr. Carney said, referring to Mr. Trumps portrayal of himself as a victim of a criminal justice system out to get him. Mr. Carney described what he called a boomerang effect on Republican primary polls. Theyre beating up your guy theres a rallying around the flag.

Mr. Trumps rivals could still see a surge in support between now and next years first primary contests, but for the time being he is dominating all challengers. A polling average shows him with a 30-point lead over his closest rival, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, who has yet to formally announce his run. All other candidates, declared and potential, are distant afterthoughts in the race, for now.

The former president is insulated from criticism, strategists said, because of the intense and dug-in partisanship of the Republican base, and because many of those voters get information only from right-wing sources, which have minimized the Jan. 6 attack and obscured Mr. Trumps 2020 loss.

They barely have access to the truth, said Sarah Longwell, an anti-Trump Republican strategist. Ms. Longwell, who hosts a podcast about Republican voters called The Focus Group, said a sizable share of primary voters wanted to move on from Mr. Trump.

But according to polling, a majority of Republican voters dont believe Mr. Trump really lost in 2020. Every politician on their team, everyone they know and all the media they consume all tells them that the election was stolen, Ms. Longwell said.

Mr. Christie, the most sharply critical 2024 hopeful of Mr. Trump, recently attacked the former president, calling him a child for denying the 2020 election results and cowardly for suggesting he might duck Republican debates.

But when Mr. Christie tested the electoral waters during visits to New Hampshire the past two months, including at the same college where Mr. Trumps town hall took place on Wednesday, his crowds seemed tilted toward independents and even Democrats, including those who knew him as the house conservative on ABC News.

One element that may factor in Mr. Christies calculus: The New Hampshire primary next year could favor an anti-Trump Republican because of an influx of independent voters. Because Democrats chose South Carolina as their first nominating state and because President Biden may not appear on the New Hampshire ballot or campaign in the state up to 100,000 independents are expected to cast ballots in the Republican race, where they could tilt the results.

Independents are open to voting for a Republican candidate, said Matt Mowers, who served as Mr. Christies New Hampshire state director in 2016, but they arent open to voting for a crazy Republican.

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Why the Anti-Trump Republican Primary Has Yet to Emerge - The New York Times

How The WGA Strike Of 2007 Brought Donald Trump To Power – LAist

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It may seem like crackpot Hollywood history, but, as they say, this one is inspired by true events: You can draw a straight line from the last Writers Guild of America strike in 2007 to Donald Trumps presidential election.

Put simply: If theres no WGA strike 15 years ago, Trumps reality TV stardom goes away, and because hes no longer as famous, he doesnt have a base upon which he could run for the nations highest office.

Yes, there are many factors that influence world history, but what is true is that before November 2007, Donald Trump was a fading reality TV star. But the 2007 strike gave new life to his failed The Apprentice series, which NBC had pulled from its schedule after steadily sinking ratings.

The spinoff The Celebrity Apprentice ran for seven seasons, reestablishing Trump not only as a TV celebrity but also leading millions to believe he was a successful and shrewd businessman. Trump rode the show all the way to his famous escalator campaign launch speech. In 2016, he was elected president.

Writers Guild of America members and supporters picket near the Tonight Show with Jay Leno theater at NBC studios in 2008.

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As were currently seeing with todays strike, when the WGA declared its stoppage in 2007, production was immediately hit. Many thought the strike would be brief. It wasnt. After a few months, dozens of shows simply ran out of scripts and couldnt produce new episodes.

Steve Carell, the star of NBCs The Office, refused to cross WGA picket lines, in apparent violation of Screen Actors Guild rules saying actors were obligated to show up to work during a writers strike.

The show had filmed only eight of its 25 planned episodes before the strike; the show that followed The Office on NBCs Thursday night schedule, Scrubs, had completed 11 of 18 planned episodes.

Pretty soon, NBC had a one-hour hole to fill. And it looked in its discards for the answer an answer like reality TV, which is considered unscripted and not covered under the WGA collective bargaining agreement.

Donald Trump, his then girlfriend Melania Knauss, actor Dennis Hopper, publisher Jason Binn and actress Victoria Duffy (L-R) attend a party for "The Apprentice" on Feb. 26, 2004 at Bliss in West Hollywood.

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In the '90s, when Survivor creator Mark Burnett first approached Trump about taking part in a competition show about peoples business acumen, to be called The Apprentice, Trump said reality television "was for the bottom-feeders of society." He later overcame his misgivings, however, and The Apprentice premiered on NBC in January 2004. It was an immediate ratings hit.

That first season attracted more than 20 million viewers, but the audience declined steadily and sharply; by 2007, The Apprentice had lost nearly two-thirds of its viewers. Trump falsely claimed that The Apprentice was still winning its time slot in its sixth season in 2007 (some single years had multiple seasons), but NBC knew the shows popularity had waned.

In May of that year, after seeing that NBC hadnt placed The Apprentice on its fall schedule, Trump told the network he was moving on to another, unnamed TV venture before NBC could cancel the series.

NBC held out hope for another Trump partnership, and no sooner had the network and Trump parted ways that reality television producer Ben Silverman was named co-chairman for NBC Entertainment.

In July, the network, Burnett and Trump announced an Apprentice spin-off was in the works.

In The Hollywood Reporters history of the 2007-08 strike, Silverman said he wasnt sure if Trump would come back.

I came up with the idea of doing Celebrity Apprentice, Silverman said. I reached out to Mark Burnett, who said, Theres no way Donald will want to be around other celebrities. He has to be the biggest celebrity. And I said, Actually, hes going to be the biggest celebrity because hes going to be the boss. I called up Trump and he agreed.

Four months later, the WGA went on strike, chiefly over payments for shows premiering on the Internet.

Donald and Melania Trump arrive at a viewing party for "The Celebrity Apprentice" viewing party on Feb. 7, 2008 in New York City.

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A general view of the atmosphere during the arrivals portion of the Academy Of Television Arts & Sciences' Evening with "The Celebrity Apprentice" on April 26, 2011 in New York City.

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Getty Images)

In January 2008, two months into the writers strike, The Celebrity Apprentice premiered on NBC. The ratings were half of what they had been for The Apprentice, but were good enough to keep the show on the air with Trump as its host for seven more years even after the strike ended.

It reinvigorated Trumps career, and made him both richer and even more famous. In its 2020 investigation into Trumps tax records, The New York Times reported that Trump earned some $197 million directly from The Apprentice and The Celebrity Apprentice, along with an additional $230 million [that] flowed from the fame associated with it, including Trumps earning a combined $1 million for touting Double Stuf Oreos and Dominos Pizza.

When he eventually announced that he was running for president, in 2015, the outsider candidate wasnt taken seriously by the political elite. But his name recognition and imperious Youre fired! style largely tied to his reality TV work gave him a huge advantage.

NBC ultimately canceled the show, citing his presidential bid and racist comments he made in his campaign.

In a statement at the time, NBC said: Due to the recent derogatory statements by Donald Trump regarding immigrants, NBCUniversal is ending its business relationship with Mr. Trump. At NBC, respect and dignity for all people are cornerstones of our values.

But by then Trump was a household name. He was elected president the next year.

What questions do you have about film, TV, music, or arts and entertainment?

John Horn, entertainment reporter and host of our weekly podcast Retake, explores whether the stories that Hollywood tells about itself really reflect what's going on?

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How The WGA Strike Of 2007 Brought Donald Trump To Power - LAist

We Had ChatGPT Answer CNN’s Questions for Donald Trump – The Daily Beast

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Stop yourself if this sounds familiar.

Donald Trump is asked a questionsay, whether he regrets his actions on Jan. 6and he answers with something like this:

Let me tell you, there's nobody who loves this country more than me, believe me. January 6 was a historic day, a day where millions of Americans came to Washington, D.C. to peacefully protest the rigged election. I did nothing wrong, and I have nothing to regret. The real regret is that the election was stolen from the American people, and that the corrupt politicians and fake news media refuse to acknowledge it.

If those comments sound like textbook Trump, you would be rightso right that it wasnt actually Trump who uttered them; it was ChatGPT.

We used the groundbreaking artificial intelligence tool to summon the voice of the ex-president and 2024 GOP frontrunner to respond to some of the exact questions he was asked during his shambolic CNN town hall on Wednesday night.

Only ChatGPTcall it TrumpGPTseems far more capable of delivering coherent answers than Trump himself, while rendering just enough of his trademark stylistic flourishes and tics to come across as the man himself.

Whats most remarkable about this experiment is that the AI version of Trump answered specific questions much in the same way as the real Trumphitting similar points, making similar pivots, reflecting similar political calculations.

Many political observers across the spectrum have noted that Trump, at this point, is almost painfully predictable. Much of the outcry around CNNs decision to give him a largely unfiltered platform was rooted in outrage that they were unprepared for him to behave in the precise way he has behaved for the last seven years.

Trump was so predictable that AIalbeit an extremely sophisticated AIwas largely able to stand in for Trump, and generally do a much better, more coherent, job.

Just judge for yourself:

Answer this question in the style of Donald Trump: Why should Americans put you back in the White House?

ChatGPT: Well, let me tell you something folks, nobody, and I mean nobody, has done as much for this great country as I have. When I was in the White House, we had record-low unemployment, we rebuilt our military, and we put America first.

But then the Democrats, and the fake news media, they came after me. They spied on my campaign, they impeached me for nothing, and they tried to steal the election. But I'll tell you what, I'm not a quitter. I'm a fighter. And I fought back harder than anyone else would have.

And you know what? We almost won. We almost took back the White House in 2020, but they cheated, folks. They cheated like you wouldn't believe. They rigged the election, they stole it from us, and they installed Sleepy Joe Biden in the White House.

But I'm not giving up, folks. I'm not giving up on America. I love this country too much. And I know you love it too. That's why I'm asking for your support. Because together, we can make America great again. Again.

Answer this question in the style of Donald Trump: But Mr. President, you know that the election wasn't stolen? The election wasn't stolen.

ChatGPT: Well, let me tell you something, fake news. You're wrong, as usual. The election was stolen, and it was stolen from me. We had massive voter fraud, we had dead people voting, we had illegal immigrants voting, we had ballots being shipped in from other countries. It was a disgrace, and everybody knows it.

But you know what? We're not gonna let it stand. We're not gonna let the Democrats get away with stealing the election. We're fighting back, and we're gonna keep fighting until we get to the truth.

Because that's what we do, folks. We fight for what's right, and we never give up. And I know that the American people are with us, because they know that the election was stolen too. They know that Sleepy Joe Biden didn't win, he lost, and he lost bigly.

So don't try to tell me that the election wasn't stolen, fake news. I know the truth, and the American people know the truth too. And we're not gonna stop fighting until we get the justice that we deserve. Because that's what true patriots do. We fight for our country, we fight for our freedom, and we fight for the truth.

Answer this question in the style of Donald Trump: Do you have any regrets about your actions on January 6?

ChatGPT: Well, let me tell you something, folks. What happened on January 6 was a disgrace. It was a disgrace to our country, and it was a disgrace to the millions of Americans who support me and my vision for America.

But you know what? I didn't do anything wrong. I didn't incite violence, and I didn't encourage anyone to break the law. What I did was speak the truth and fight for what's right.

And that's why I have no regrets about my actions on January 6. I was standing up for the millions of Americans who feel like their voices aren't being heard, and I was standing up to the corrupt politicians who are trying to silence us.

Now, some people might try to twist my words or take them out of context, but the truth is that I never encouraged violence or lawlessness. I simply encouraged people to fight for what's right and to demand that our voices be heard.

So no, I have no regrets about my actions on January 6. I will always stand up for what's right, and I will always fight for the millions of Americans who support me and my vision for America.

Answer this question in the style of Donald Trump: But Mr. President, you did incite violence. You told an angry mob to stop the steal. You said we would never give up, never concede. You said, If you don't fight like hell, you're not gonna have a country anymore. You assembled this mob. You fired them up. And then sent them to the Capitol. You tweeted that Mike Pence didn't have the courage to overturn the election. And then you watched the attack on the Capitol and didn't do anything for hours.

ChatGPT: Fake news! You're spreading lies and twisting my words. I never incited violence. I never told anyone to commit any acts of violence or to break the law.

What I said was that we need to fight for our country, fight for our rights, and fight for the truth. And that's exactly what we did. We peacefully protested, and we demanded that our voices be heard.

But you know what? The Democrats and the fake news media don't want to hear our voices. They want to silence us and they want to suppress the truth. And that's why they're spreading these lies about me inciting violence.

And as for Mike Pence, he didn't have the courage to do what needed to be done. He had the power to overturn the election, but he didn't use it. And that's a disgrace.

But let me be clear. I did not watch the attack on the Capitol and do nothing. I immediately called for peace and for everyone to go home. And that's exactly what happened.

So don't believe the lies and the fake news. The truth is that I love this country, and I will always fight for it. And the millions of Americans who support me and my vision for America know that.

REUTERS/Russell Cheyne/File Photo

Answer this question in the style of Donald Trump: A jury just found you liable for the sexual assault of E. Jean Carroll. What do you say to voters who say it disqualifies you from being president?

ChatGPT: Let me tell you something, folks. The verdict in the E. Jean Carroll case was a total sham. It's a witch hunt, just like the Russia hoax and the impeachment hoax.

I've been falsely accused by all sorts of people over the years, and this is just the latest in a long line of baseless accusations. It's a disgrace, and it's an attack on me and my supporters.

But you know what? I'm a fighter. I never give up, and I never back down. And that's why I'm not going to let this verdict stop me from fighting for the millions of Americans who support me and my vision for America.

And let me be clear. I never sexually assaulted anyone. E. Jean Carroll is just another person who's trying to get attention and make some money off of my name. It's a disgrace, and it's a total fabrication.

So to all the voters out there who think this disqualifies me from being president, I say this: don't believe the fake news media. Don't believe the lies. The truth is that I'm the best thing that ever happened to this country, and I'm going to make America great again, again.

So let's focus on the real issues facing our country, like jobs, the economy, and securing our borders. That's what matters, and that's what I'm going to keep fighting for.

The experiment is perhaps most illuminating, though, when you compare some of ChatGPTs answers to what Trump actually said. Here are just a few examples:

Answer this question in the style of Donald Trump: If elected president again, how would you act not only to defend our Second Amendment rights but to restore rights that have been taken from us?

ChatGPT: Let me tell you something, folks. Nobody loves the Second Amendment more than I do. I mean, it's right up there with making America great again. And believe me, nobody's gonna mess with our Second Amendment rights on my watch. I'm gonna defend them like nobody's ever defended them before. We're gonna have the strongest, most powerful Second Amendment protections you've ever seen.

REAL TRUMP: There's been nobody that's protected the Second Amendment, as you know, like I have. I've protected it through thick and thin, not easy to do. But we have a very big mental health problem in this country. And again, it's not the gun that pulls the trigger; it's the person that pulls the trigger. And we have to protect our Second Amendment.

Answer this question in the style of Donald Trump: Would you sign a federal abortion ban into law?

ChatGPT: Let me tell you, folks, I'm the best when it comes to making deals and protecting life. And let me be very clear, I am pro-life, very pro-life. We need to protect the sanctity of life, and that includes the lives of unborn babies.

As for a federal abortion ban, I would definitely consider it. It's something that needs to be looked at very closely, but I can tell you this, I will always err on the side of life. We need to do everything we can to protect the most vulnerable among us, and that includes unborn babies.

So, if a federal abortion ban comes across my desk, I will absolutely consider it and if it is the right thing to do, I will sign it into law without hesitation.

REAL TRUMP: What I will do is negotiate so that people are happy. But the fact that we were ableI was ableI'm so proud of it, we put three great justices on the Supreme Court. We have almost 300 federal judges on the Supreme Court

President Trump is going to make a determination what he thinks is great for the country and what's fair for the country. But the fact that I was able to terminate Roe v. Wade, after 50 years of tryingthey worked for 50 years, I've never seen anything like it. They workedand I was evenI was so honored to have done it. We are in a very good negotiating position right now, only because of what I was able to do.

Answer this question in the style of Donald Trump: Why did you take those classified documents with you when you left the White House?

ChatGPT: First of all, let me tell you, nobody loves classified documents more than me. I mean, nobody. They're tremendous, believe me. And let me tell you, I had every right to take those documents with me, OK? Because they were mine, all right? They were mine because I'm the President, and the President can do whatever he wants. That's just how it is. And you know what? I wanted to make sure that those documents were safe and secure. Because, let's face it, the people who are running the government now, they're not very good at their jobs. They're a disaster, really. So, I took those documents with me to make sure they didn't fall into the wrong hands. And if you don't believe me, just look at what's going on in this country right now. It's a mess, and it's all because of the people who are in charge. So, you can blame me all you want, but I did the right thing. I did the smart thing. And nobody can take that away from me.

REAL TRUMP: I had every right to under the Presidential Records Act. You have the Presidential Records Act. I was there and I took what I took and it gets declassified. Biden, on the other hand, he has 1,850 boxes. He had boxes sent to Chinatown, Chinatown, where they don't speak even English in that Chinatown we're talking about

Just so you understand, I had every right to do it. I didn't make a secret of it. You know, the boxes were stationed outside of the White House. People were taking pictures of the GSA and the various people that were moving.

Answer this question in the style of Donald Trump: What do you think about the United States' current debt situation, and how can we move forward?

ChatGPT: Well, let me tell you, nobody knows more about debt than me. Nobody. And I can tell you, the United States is in a very bad situation right now. We've got a tremendous amount of debt, and it's only getting worse. We're being ripped off by countries all over the world, and we're not doing anything about it. It's a disgrace, really. But you know what? I'm a businessman, and I know how to fix things. And I can tell you, the first thing we need to do is start negotiating better deals with these other countries. We can't keep letting them take advantage of us like this. We need to put America first. And you know what else we need to do? We need to cut spending. We need to get rid of all these wasteful government programs that are just wasting our money. And we need to start investing in our own country. We need to create jobs, we need to rebuild our infrastructure, and we need to make America great again. And you know what? I'm the only one who can do it. Nobody else has the experience, nobody else has the knowledge, and nobody else has the guts to take on this challenge. But I do.

REAL TRUMP: Such an important question. So we're at $33 trillion, a number that nobody ever thought possible. When we had our economy rocking and rolling just prior to COVID coming in, like literally, we were making a fortune. And oil, we were going to make so much money from oil, we were going to start paying off debt. But then with COVID coming in, we had to do other things. We had to keep this country alive because it was so serious. But we have to get the country back. We have to lower energy prices. We have to lower interest rates. Interest rates are through the roof. Energy has to come down, it all has to come down and we have to start paying off debt. But when we have a debt limit, and they use that very seriously. I mean, they came inSchumer came in with Nancy Pelosi, and they were using, we'll violate it, we'll do whateverthey talked a whole lot different than they do right now.

I say to the Republicans out therecongressmen, senators if they don't give you massive cuts, you're going to have to do a default. And I don't believe they're going to do a default because I think the Democrats will absolutely cave because you don't want to have that happen. But it's better than what we're doing right now because we're spending money like drunken sailors.

Answer this question in the style of Donald Trump: Do you feel that you owe your vice president Mike Pence an apology for your actions on January 6?

ChatGPT: Well, first of all, let me tell you, January 6 was a very tragic day for our country. And let me just say, nobody feels worse about what happened than I do. Nobody. But you know what? I didn't do anything wrong. I didn't incite violence, I didn't encourage people to storm the Capitol. That's just fake news, OK? And as for Mike Pence, let me tell you, he's a good man. He's a great man. But he made a mistake, OK? He made a mistake by not standing up for me and not fighting harder to overturn the election. And you know what? I'm disappointed in him. I really am. But do I owe him an apology? Absolutely not. I did what I had to do. I fought hard for our country, and I fought hard for the American people. And if Mike Pence can't see that, then that's his problem, not mine. So no, I don't owe him an apology. In fact, he owes me an apology for not standing up for what's right. And you know what else? I'll always be the President. Nobody can take that away from me. And I'll always be a winner. That's just who I am.

REAL TRUMP: No, because he did something wrong. He should have put the votes back to the state legislatures and I think we would have had a different outcome. I really do

I like Mike Pence very much. He's a very fine man. He's a very nice man. He made a mistake. His lawyer said, you cannot move. I call them the human conveyer belt. I said, even if the votes you meanI talked to his lawyereven if the votes are absolutely fraudulent, he cant sendyes, sir, he cant send them back. And the Democrats played it and the RINOs played it. And then, the election was over. They told them he couldnt do it. And Mike said to me, I cant do it. The lawyers told me I can't do it, they cant do it. But the lawyers were wrong because right after the election, they all met, the RINOs and the Democrats, and they worked out a plan to make sure that future vice presidents don't do what I said you could do.

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We Had ChatGPT Answer CNN's Questions for Donald Trump - The Daily Beast

How Is George Santos Different from Donald Trump? – The Bulwark

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How does George Santos lie? Let us count the ways.

It is far too easy to mock Santos. His serial fantasies seem, in some ways, more amusing and frivolous than serious and dangerous. Who, after all, lies about being a volleyball star? If you are going to lie, go bigat least claim to be a basketball star.

But mocking Santos in this way both trivializes his rampant criminality and obscures his potent symbolism. Santos is not just a criminal in his own right; he is also a Donald Trump Mini-Me, exemplifying the intersection of the Big Lie form of politics and serial criminality. In his indictment, there are lessons to learn about both the degradation of politics and the limits of criminal laws ability to resist that degradation.

Some of Santoss alleged criminality is almost prosaic. Prosecutors allege that in June 2020, during the early months of the COVID pandemic, Santos sought unemployment benefits in New York, even though he was employed by a Florida investment firm (apparently, Harbor City Capital) earning a salary of $120,000 annually. If these facts are proven true, Santos is little more than a garden-variety crook trying to scam the federal government.

The more notable allegations involve Santoss fundraising activities during his campaign for Congress. Santos is alleged to have personally profited from a fraud involving his solicitation of contributions to assist in his congressional campaign. Election finance law allows the creation of a tax-exempt organization under section 501(c)(4) of the tax laws for the purpose of making independent expenditures on behalf of a candidate. Because these independent organizations have only limited obligations to disclose the sources of their funding, they are considered an effective and useful way of influencing elections without too much public exposure.

But to be lawful, the 501(c)(4) organization has to be an actual non-profit and spend money independently to advance a candidates campaign. According to the prosecutors, in Santoss case, neither happened. The company in question appears to be a for-profit Florida company named RedStone Strategies, and the money collected was sent to Santoss personal bank accounts where he used the money to buy luxury designer clothing and pay part of his outstanding car loan, among other things.

In other words, even though Santos and those who worked for him told the contributors that the money would pay for political ads to advance Santoss campaign, Santos instead put the money in his own pocket and used it for his personal benefit. The lies that Santos told by email and by text are at the heart of the criminal wire fraud charges against him. And transferring $74,000 from the company to his own personal account is said to be evidence of laundering the criminal proceeds for his own benefit.

Again, a simple frauda lie told in an effort to separate the rubes from their money. But this time it is a crime with larger political implications, not because of Santos, but because of how his alleged crimes mimic Trump and those around him. In 2019, a New York judge ordered Trump to pay $2 million because money Trump raised supposedly for veterans actually went to his presidential campaign. The House January 6th Committee uncovered that money Trump raised for his legal defense (i.e., his efforts in court to overturn the 2020 election) actually went to a political action committee. Former Trump advisor Steve Bannon was charged with fraud for raising money putatively to building a wall on the southern border, then pocketing it.

Special Counsel Jack Smith is said to be gathering evidence about whether or not Trumps team solicited donations with false claims of election fraud. The idea is that Trump lost the 2020 election and that he knew he had lost. At least two outside consulting firms hired by the Trump team investigated those claims and reported to the Trump team that his claims of election fraud were not supported by any evidence.

It appears, however, that notwithstanding their knowledge that the election was lost fair and square, Trumps Save America PAC solicited and received hundreds of thousands of dollars in donations from donors via email solicitations that claimed the election had been stolen. In much the same way that Santoss lies soliciting funds came to form the basis of charges against him, one can readily imagine that emails sent out to small-dollar donors saying, in effect, send us $25 so we can prove that Trump won the election would likewise be subject to potential fraud charges if those who crafted them or who directed that they be sent knew that it would not be possible to prove the election claims.

To be sure, there are differences in the two cases. Fund-raising solicitations are well-known for the proliferation of vague, unprovable, and overblown claims. It is no crime, for example, for Trump to say, elect me and I will cut taxes, even if he knows he cannot achieve that goal. Whether or not Trumps solicitations crossed the line from grandiose puffery to criminal fraud depends on the precise phrasing of the solicitations, how they were perceived by the victims who donated funds, and the depth of the knowledge of falsity held by those who sent the emails. These are all questions that need to be further examined.

And, likewise, unlike Santos (and Bannon), there is, as yet, no evidence that Trump put the money in his own pocket. So the personal profit motive that Santos is facing may not be present in a Trump-related case. Those differences may well matter in the end.

Or they may not. The charges against Santos, like those against Bannon, are a template for potential charges involving the Trump campaign. While personal profit is a robust motivation, so is maintaining the narcissistic fiction of a stolen election. Whatever the motivation, it is a crime to lie to those from whom you solicit money.

Bannon was pardoned by Trump for that crime. Santos faces criminal charges. Both are Trumpian fraudsters on a smaller scale. And so, perhaps, the Santos case is a trial run for these types of allegations. If so, Trump may yet face fraud charges as well.

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How Is George Santos Different from Donald Trump? - The Bulwark

The 2024 DeSantis Campaign Faltered Before it Even Started. What … – The New York Times

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In November, Representative Byron Donalds scored a coveted speaking slot: introducing Gov. Ron DeSantis after a landslide re-election turned the swing state of Florida deep red. Standing onstage at a victory party for Mr. DeSantis in Tampa, Mr. Donalds praised him as Americas governor.

By April, Mr. Donalds was seated at a table next to another Florida Republican: Donald J. Trump. He was at Mar-a-Lago, Mr. Trumps private club, for a multicourse dinner with nine other House Republicans from Florida who had spurned their home-state governor to endorse the former presidents 2024 run. Red Make America Great Again hats decorated their place settings.

In six short months from November to May, Mr. DeSantiss 2024 run has faltered before it has even begun.

Allies have abandoned him. Tales of his icy interpersonal touch have spread. Donors have groused. And a legislative session in Tallahassee designed to burnish his conservative credentials has instead coincided with a drop in the polls.

His decision not to begin any formal campaign until after the Florida legislative session allowing him to cast himself as a conservative fighter who not only won but actually delivered results instead opened a window of opportunity for Mr. Trump. The former president filled the void with personal attacks and a heavy rotation of negative advertising from his super PAC. Combined with Mr. DeSantiss cocooning himself in the right-wing media and the Trump teams success in outflanking him on several fronts, the governor has lost control of his own national narrative.

Now, as Mr. DeSantiss Tallahassee-based operation pivots to formally entering the race in the coming weeks, Mr. DeSantis and his allies are retooling for a more aggressive new phase. His staunchest supporters privately acknowledge that Mr. DeSantis needs to recalibrate a political outreach and media strategy that has allowed Mr. Trump to define the race.

Changes are afoot. Mr. DeSantis is building a strong Iowa operation. He has been calling influential Republicans in Iowa and is rolling out a large slate of state legislator endorsements before a weekend trip there.

He definitely indicated that if he gets in, he will work exceptionally hard nothing will be below him, said Bob Vander Plaats, an influential Iowa evangelical leader whom Mr. DeSantis hosted recently for a meal at the governors mansion. I think he understands I emphasized that Iowas a retail politics state. You need to shake peoples hands, look them in the eye.

Still, his central electability pitch MAGA without the mess has been badly bruised.

A book tour that was supposed to have introduced him nationally was marked by missteps that deepened concerns about his readiness for the biggest stage. He took positions on two pressing domestic and international issues abortion and the war in Ukraine that generated second-guessing and backlash among some allies and would-be benefactors. And the moves he has made to appeal to the hard right escalating his feud with Disney, signing a strict six-week abortion ban have unnerved donors who are worried about the general election.

I was in the DeSantis camp, said Andrew Sabin, a metals magnate who gave the Florida governor $50,000 last year. But he started opening his mouth, and a lot of big donors said his views arent tolerable. He specifically cited abortion and Ukraine.

Three billionaires who are major G.O.P. donors Steve Wynn, Ike Perlmutter and Thomas Peterffy, a past DeSantis patron who has publicly soured on him dined recently with Vivek Ramaswamy, the 37-year-old long-shot Republican.

The early months of 2023 have exposed a central challenge for Mr. DeSantis. He needs to stitch together an unwieldy ideological coalition bridging both anti-Trump Republicans and Trump supporters who are nonetheless considering turning the page on the past president. Hitting and hugging Mr. Trump at the same time has bedeviled rivals since Senator Ted Cruz tried to do so in 2016, and Cruz veterans fill key roles in Mr. DeSantiss campaign and his super PAC.

Allies of both leading Republicans caution that its still early.

Mr. DeSantis has more than $100 million stored across various pro-DeSantis accounts. He is building good will with state party leaders by headlining fund-raisers. He remains, in public polls, the most serious rival to Mr. Trump. And a supportive super PAC called Never Back Down is staffing up across more than a dozen states, has already spent more than $10 million on television ads and has peppered early states with direct mail.

DeSantis supporters point to polls showing that the governor remains well-liked by Republicans.

The hits arent working, said Kristin Davison, chief operating officer of Never Back Down. His favorability has not changed.

The DeSantis team declined to provide any comment for this story.

Six months ago, as Republicans were blaming Mr. Trump for the partys 2022 midterm underperformance, a high-flying Mr. DeSantis made the traditional political decision that he would govern first in early 2023 and campaign second. The rush of conservative priorities that Mr. DeSantis has turned into law in Florida on guns, immigration, abortion, school vouchers, opposing China is expected to form the backbone of his campaign.

Now, the governor can create momentum by spending time publicly touting his endless accomplishments, calling supporters and engaging more publicly to push back on the false narratives his potential competitors are spewing, said Nick Iarossi, a lobbyist in Florida and a longtime DeSantis supporter.

A turning point this year for Mr. Trump was his Manhattan indictment, which Mr. DeSantis waffled on responding to as the G.O.P. base rallied to Mr. Trumps defense.

Yet Mr. Trumps compounding legal woes and potential future indictments could eventually have the opposite effect exhausting voters, which is Mr. DeSantiss hope. A jury found Mr. Trump liable this week for sexual abuse and defamation. When you get all these lawsuits coming at you, Mr. DeSantis told one associate recently, its just distracting.

The DeSantis team seemed to buy its own hype.

Days before the midterms, the DeSantis campaign released a video that cast his rise as ordained from on high. On the eighth day, God looked down on his planned paradise and said, I need a protector, a narrator booms as Mr. DeSantis appears onscreen. So God made a fighter.

For years, the self-confident Mr. DeSantis has relied on his own instincts and the counsel of his wife, Casey DeSantis, who posted the video, to set his political course, according to past aides and current associates. Mr. DeSantis has been written off before in his first primary for governor; in his first congressional primary so both he and his wife have gotten used to tuning out critics.

Today, allies say there are few people around who are willing to tell Mr. DeSantis hes wrong, even in private.

In late 2022, the thinking was that a decision on 2024 could wait, and Mr. Trumps midterm hangover would linger. Mr. DeSantis published a book I was, you know, kind of a hot commodity, he said of writing it that became a best seller. And Mr. DeSantis was on the offensive, tweaking Mr. Trump with a February donor retreat held only miles from Mar-a-Lago that drew Trump contributors.

But it has been Mr. Trump who has consistently one-upped Mr. DeSantis, flying into East Palestine, Ohio, after the rail disaster there, appearing with a larger crowd in the same Iowa city days after Mr. DeSantis and swiping Florida congressional endorsements while Mr. DeSantis traveled to Washington.

One Trump endorser, Representative Lance Gooden of Texas, backed the former president only hours after attending a private group meeting with Mr. DeSantis. In an interview, Mr. Gooden likened Mr. DeSantiss decision to delay entry until after a legislative session to the example of a past Texas governor, Rick Perry, who did the same a decade ago and quickly flamed out of the 2012 contest.

Hes relied, much like Rick Perry did, on local political experts in his home state that just dont know the presidential landscape, Mr. Gooden said.

Mr. Trump has insinuated, without providing evidence, that Mr. DeSantis had inappropriate relationships with high school girls during a stint as a teacher in the early 2000s and that Mr. DeSantis might be gay.

His team has portrayed Mr. DeSantis as socially inept, and a pro-Trump super PAC distributed a video dubbed Pudding Fingers playing off news articles about Mr. DeSantiss uncouth eating habits.

People close to Mr. Trump have been blunt in private discussions that the hits so far are just the start: If Mr. DeSantis ever appears poised to capture the nomination, the former president will do everything he can to tear him apart.

Beginning with his response to the coronavirus outbreak, Mr. DeSantiss national rise has been uniquely powered by his ability to make the right enemies: in academia, in the news media, among liberal activists and at the White House. But Mr. Trumps broadsides and some of his own actions have put Mr. DeSantis crosswise with the right for the first time. It has been a disorienting experience for the DeSantis operation, according to allies.

For the past three years, Mr. DeSantis has had the luxury of completely shutting out what he pejoratively brands the national regime media or the corporate media though Rupert Murdochs Fox Corporation does not, in his view, count as corporate media.

This strategy served Mr. DeSantis well in Florida. But avoiding sit-down interviews with skeptical journalists has left him out of practice as he prepares for the most intense scrutiny of his career.

The Murdochs encapsulated him in a bubble and force-fed him to a conservative audience, said Steve Bannon, a former strategist for Mr. Trump. He hasnt been scuffed up. He hasnt had these questions put in his grill.

Even in friendly settings, Mr. DeSantis has stumbled. In a February interview with The Times of London, a Murdoch property, Mr. DeSantis cut off questions after the reporter pushed him on how he thought President Biden should handle Ukraine differently.

The former Fox News host Tucker Carlson was so irked by Mr. DeSantiss evasion that he sent a detailed questionnaire to potential Republican presidential candidates to force them to state their positions on the war, according to two people familiar with his decision.

In a written response, Mr. DeSantis characterized Russias invasion as a territorial dispute. Republican hawks and some of Mr. DeSantiss top donors were troubled. In public, the governor soon cleaned up his statement to say Russia had not had a right to invade. In private, Mr. DeSantis tried to calm supporters by noting that his statement had not taken a position against aid to Ukraine.

While Mr. DeSantis has stuck to his preferred way of doing things, Mr. Trump has given seats on his plane to reporters from outlets that have published harsh stories about him. And despite having spent years calling CNN fake news, Mr. Trump recently attended a CNN town hall.

DeSantis allies said the governor would begrudgingly bring in some of the national regime media. Some early proof: The governors tight-lipped team invited a Politico columnist to Tallahassee and supplied rare on-the-record access.

Not long after Mr. DeSantis had won in a landslide last fall, the incoming freshman, Representative Cory Mills, a Florida Republican, called the governors team to try to thank him for his support. Mr. Mills had campaigned on the eve of the election with Casey DeSantis and had appeared with the governor, too. I called to show my appreciation and never even got a call back, Mr. Mills said in an interview. To be honest with you, I was a bit insulted by it.

The lack of relationships on Capitol Hill became a public headache in April when Mr. Trump rolled out what eventually became 10 Florida House Republican endorsements during Mr. DeSantiss trip to Washington.

Donors who contributed to Mr. DeSantiss previous campaigns tell stories of meetings in which the candidate looked as though he would rather be anywhere else. He fiddled with his phone, showed no interest in his hosts and escaped as quickly as possible. But people who have recently met with Mr. DeSantis say he has been far more engaged. At recent Wisconsin and New Hampshire events, the governor worked the room as he had rarely done before.

The governor and his team have had internal conversations acknowledging the need for him to engage in the basics of political courtship: small talk, handshaking, eye contact.

For his part, Mr. Trump recently relished hosting the Florida House Republicans who had endorsed him.

On one side of him was Mr. Mills. On the other was Mr. Donalds, who had introduced Mr. DeSantis on election night and who had been in Mr. DeSantiss orbit since helping with debate prep during Mr. DeSantiss 2018 run for governor.

Mr. Donalds declined an interview. But footage of those private debate-prep sessions, first reported by ABC News, shows Mr. DeSantis trying to formulate an answer to a question that will define his imminent 2024 run: how to disagree with Mr. Trump without appearing disagreeable to Trump supporters.

I have to frame it in a way, Mr. DeSantis said then, thats not going to piss off all his voters.

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How is Donald Trump able to maintain control of Republican party? – The Columbus Dispatch

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"If you believe the other side is corrupt, immoral, and dishonest, it takes someone like (Donald) Trump to stand up to them," Robert Alexander

Robert Alexander| Guest Columnist

Robert Alexanderis the founding director of the Ohio Northern Institute for Civics and Public Policy. He is a political science professor at Ohio Northern University.

The rally around the flag effect is a well-documented phenomenon where a presidents public approval rating climbs in times of crisis.

In spite of countless controversies, including two impeachments, the January 6 riot, and more recently being the first president to have criminal charges filed against him, Donald Trump has managed to engender his own rally around the Trump effect among Republican voters.

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A modern day Rasputin, no matter how many times he looks to be politically dead, he is able to maintain his position as the leader of the Republican party. This is true not only in spite of his controversies, but also in spite of poor electoral performances among Republicans nationally since his 2016 victory.

This has led many to question why Republicans continue to stand with him. The answers lie in part with him and in part with broader trends in American politics.

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It is no secret that we live in polarized times.

Yet, the extent to which this polarization affects how we view others might come as a surprise . Majorities of both Democrats and Republicans view the opposing party as being close-minded, dishonest, immoral, and unintelligent. These numbers have only grown since 2016. It is quite a challenge to unite Americans when 72% of Republicans see Democrats as immoral and 63% of Democrats see Republicans as immoral. Similar findings occur among young voters too.

One poll finds that nearly half of college students would not want a roommate who voted for a different candidate and 53% say they probably would not go on a date with someone who voted for a different candidate. This tracks with another poll finding that 4 in 10 parents say they would be disappointed if their child married someone of the opposing political party.

These sentiments fuel an apocalyptic us versus them mentality where any loss on our side, is a win for their side. This is explained through the concept of negative partisanship where dislike of the other party is more likely to drive support than your attachment to your own party.

This phenomenon is tied closely to various psychological biases we hold such as in-group bias, self-serving bias and confirmation bias.

For instance, confirmation bias occurs when individuals selectively choose what evidence they pay attention to based upon preexisting beliefs they hold. If new information supports their worldview, they hold on to it. If it challenges their worldview, they discard it. This, of course, does not lead to accurate assessments of the world around them.

When it comes to the political parties, both Democrats and Republicans are reluctant to give the other party credit and refuse to accept blame when it is likely warranted.

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There is little Donald Trump could do that would make Democrats happy and we have seen that regardless of his behaviors, there is little Trump can do to lose support among Republicans.

To see how much an increase in polarization has affected the landscape today, it is worth examining Bill Clintons impeachment nearly 25 years ago. In that crisis, Clinton saw his public approval rating increase from 58% in November of 1997 to 71% after Articles of Impeachment were introduced to 62% after the Articles were rejected by the Senate in the Spring of 1999. Much of his bounce was not due to an increase in support among Democrats, but a surge in support among Independents and Republicanssomething that would be unthinkable today.

Donald Trumps approval rating has remained remarkably consistent over the years. There has been little he has done that has brought him support among Democrats or Independents. Yet, among Republicans, every time he has faced a crisis, polls show the party rallying around him. This is true since his indictment and Republican rivals have not been able to capitalize on it to make any significant inroads to challenge him for the 2024 nomination.

And yet, dedicated Republican support for Trump has not translated into great electoral success for the party.

Since his surprise victory in 2016, Republicans had an historic midterm loss in 2018 (losing 41 seats in the House), they lost the presidency and Senate in 2020, and fully underperformed in the 2022 midterm elections with Democrats gaining a Senate seat.

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Still, thanks to negative partisanship and psychological biases, Trumps supporters see him as being attacked unfairly, that the system is corrupt, or putting their energy into the misdeeds of their opponents. Many of them recognize Trumps foibles, acknowledging that he can be vicious and engage in morally questionable behavior. But they also believe that the other side is doing it too.

For partisans, Trump is their guy who will do whatever it takes to win. If you believe the other side is corrupt, immoral, and dishonest, it takes someone like Trump to stand up to them. And for that reason, they are willing to tolerate many of his antics.

Robert Alexanderis the founding director of the Ohio Northern Institute for Civics and Public Policy. He is a political science professor at Ohio Northern University.

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How is Donald Trump able to maintain control of Republican party? - The Columbus Dispatch