The anti-vaccine movement strikes back against Dr. Paul Offit

In my five years in the blogosphere, two years blogging for SBM, and over a decade in Internet discussion forums about medicine and “alternative” medicine, I’ve learned a few things. One thing that I’ve learned is that one of the biggest differences between those whose world view is based on science and who therefore promote science-based medicine and those promoting pseudoscience, quackery, and anti-science is that science inculcates in its adherents a culture of free, open, and vigorous debate. Indeed, to outsiders, this debate can seem (and sometimes is) vicious. In other words, if you’re going to be a scientist, you need to have a thick skin because you will have to defend your hypotheses and conclusions, sometimes against some very hostile other scientists. That same attitude of a Darwinian struggle between scientific ideas, with only those best supported by evidence and with the most explanatory power surviving, is a world view that those not steeped in science have a hard time understanding.

Among those who don’t understand science, few have a harder time with the rough-and-tumble debate over evidence and science that routinely goes on among scientists than those advocating pseudoscience. Indeed, in marked contrast to scientists, they tend to cultivate cultures of the echo chamber. Examples abound and include discussion forums devoted to “alternative” medicine like CureZone, where never is heard a discouraging word — because anyone expressing too much skepticism about the prevailing view on such forums invariably finds himself first shunned by other members of the discussion forums and then, if he persists, booted from the forum by the moderators. In marked contrast, on skeptical forums, most of the time almost anything goes. True, the occasional supporter of woo who finds his way onto a skeptical forum will face a lot of criticism, some of it brutal. However, rarely will such a person be banned, unless he commits offenses unrelated to his questioning of scientific dogma, such as insulting or abusive behavior towards other forum participants or trolling. Such people may annoy the heck out of us skeptics sometimes, but on the other hand, they do actually from time to time challenge us to defend our science and prevent us from becoming too complacent. Indeed, that’s what I like about skeptics and being a scientist. Nothing or no one is sacred.

In marked contrast, supporters of pseudoscience are very much characterized by their aversion to scientific debate. The reason is obvious. They don’t have the goods. (If they did, what they’re advocating wouldn’t be pseudoscience.) They can’t win on science, reason, and evidence. The result is that they often end up forming communities that exist more to support their pseudoscience than to discover what does and does not actually work. Indeed, Prometheus describes this phenomenon well as he’s seen it in “autism biomed” discussion forums.

The same sort of group dynamics occurs in forums like CureZone and many others. Those who try to apply science and skepticism to the prevailing dogma of the group usually end up banned or give up in disgust. Indeed, at the anti-vaccine crank blog Age of Autism, comments are ruthlessly censored, and anyone who disagrees too strongly with the prevailing “wisdom” that vaccines cause autism will soon find himself or herself permanently banned. One consequence of this can be that the adherents of such views become progressively less able to defend their views in an evidence- and science-based argument, because they simply aren’t used to having them challenged based on evidence and science. Indeed some no longer even know how to react to criticism other than by lashing out. We’ve seen this before on this very blog, where anti-vaccine activist J.B. Handley lashed out at Steve Novella, while from time to time various anti-vaccine activists, J.B. Handley included, and promoters of pseudoscience and quackery periodically launch prolonged ad hominem attacks on me1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10.

Another consequence is that promoters of unscientific and anti-scientific “medical” modalities have a tendency to be lawsuit-happy. We at SBM have written about this time and time again, both here and on individual bloggers’ blogs. The most recent and famous victim of this tendency is Simon Singh, who is being sued by the British Chiropractic Association for pointing out that there is no evidence behind their claims to be able to treat allergies and colic and quite correctly characterized such claims as “bogus.” Thanks to Britain’s notoriously plaintiff-friendly libel laws, Singh is fighting an uphill battle, too, and may very well lose. Fortunately, his case has become a cause célèbre, and Sense About Science has rallied public opinion in his favor and, more importantly, of reforming the U.K.’s antiquated anti-free speech libel laws — please sign the petition. However, Singh’s case is simply the most famous current example of how promoters of pseudoscience try to suppress criticism with legal threats or action. There have been several others before, including Andy Lewis of Quackometer, whose ISP caved in to legal threats from the highly dubious Dr. Joseph Chikelue Obi (who bills himself as the “world’s top expert in nutritional immunomudulation“). This came on hot on the heels of legal thuggery directed against him by the Society of Homeopaths. In both of these cases, the attempted legal action backfired spectacularly, as dozens, perhaps hundreds, of bloggers republished the posts verbatim that the Society of Homeopaths and “Dr.” Obi had successfully suppressed. Another example includes Kathleen Seidel, who was subject to a frivolous and punitive subpoena by lawyer Clifford Shoemaker, who is well known for bringing lawsuits based on the pseudoscience that vaccines cause autism. Fortunately, Shoemaker overreached and was forced to retreat in shame.

And I haven’t even mentioned über-quack Matthias Rath trying to silence Ben Goldacre through litigation

The most recent flavor of anti-science groups using the law to silence critics seems to be anti-vaccine activists. And, I’m sad to report that this time around it is Barbara Loe Fisher of the organization with the most Orwellian name, the National Vaccine Information Center (NVIC), who is suing Dr. Paul Offit; Amy Wallace, who quoted him in her excellent article published in WIRED Magazine in October (for which J.B. Handley launched misogynistic attacks on her); and Condé Naste, WIRED’s publisher. Here is the legal complaint (scrubbed of home addresses of the private parties involved).

This is not the first time an anti-vaccine activist has sued Dr. Offit. Just last year, Handley sued Dr. Paul Offit for a passage in his 2008 book Autism’s False Prophets, which included highly unflattering portraits (and, in my opinion, justifiably so) of anti-vaccinationists like Mr. Handley, including a discussion of a threatening post by Handley posted to an anti-vaccine mailing list, in which he said to the “neurodiverse folks monitoring this list”:

We will bring the full resources of myself and Generation Rescue to stop this. We will sue you for libel and we will go after your homes and assets. My lawyers live to investigate and sue people like you.

This, of course, sums up the attitude of all too many anti-science activists. They can’t win on the science; so they try to suppress criticism through legal action. Sadly, it’s their most potent weapon, certainly far more potent than any scientific argument they can come up with, given that even in the relatively defendant-friendly U.S. libel suits can be so intimidating that they will effectively silence criticism.

I don’t know enough of the details of the suit to determine whether Handley’s case had any merit or not, and I’m not a lawyer anyway. I tend to doubt that it did. Regardless of the merit of his suit (or, more probably, the lack thereof), I am pretty sure I have deduced Handley’s intent, as his e-mail and postings on AoA certainly leave no doubt as to his attitude. I also know that it’s very interesting that, as Squillo points out, Handley’s lawsuit was not filed on the basis of libel, but rather on “false light invasion of privacy” rather than for libel (a form of defamation), probably because false light is less well-defined than libel and easier to prevail on, perhaps as a result of Dr. Offit’s lawyer’s response. Whatever the case, Dr. Offit and his lawyers decided to settle rather than fight, with the settlement being an apology, an agreement to correct the passage in dispute, and a $5,000 donation to one of Jenny McCarthy’s favored autism charities, all of which to me sounds very much like a token settlement. I may be totally wrong about this, but my guess is that Dr. Offit just didn’t want to go through the pain of a full trial, which is, of course, the point of such legal actions; being sued is painful for anyone, and many decide it’s easier to cave than to fight, even when they have a strong case. My second guess is that Handley may have had just enough of a case plus a set of pockets deep enough to make a lot of trouble but probably not a good enough case to have had a high likelihood of prevailing if it had gone to trial. Otherwise, given his visceral hatred of Dr. Offit, I highly doubt that Handley would have agreed to such a tiny token settlement. (Another possibility to be considered is that Handley didn’t really want Generation Rescue and himself to be subject to discovery regarding the incidents at the heart of the disputed passage had the legal case moved forward.) On the other hand, Offit’s settling is a huge propaganda victory for Handley, which he has been trumpeting on his blog.

Unfortunately, Handley’s apparent success appears to have emboldened other anti-vaccine activists, and this, I suspect, is why Barbara Loe Fisher likely decided that she might be able to cause Dr. Offit some trouble. So cause him trouble she did by suing over this passage from Amy Wallace’s article:

Paul Offit has a slightly nasal voice and a forceful delivery that conspire to make him sound remarkably like Hawkeye Pierce, the cantankerous doctor played by Alan Alda on the TV series M*A*S*H. As a young man, Offit was a big fan of the show (though he felt then, and does now, that Hawkeye was “much cooler than me”). Offit is quick-witted, funny, and — despite a generally mild-mannered mien — sometimes so assertive as to seem brash. “Scientists, bound only by reason, are society’s true anarchists,” he has written — and he clearly sees himself as one. “Kaflooey theories” make him crazy, especially if they catch on. Fisher, who has long been the media’s go-to interview for what some in the autism arena call “parents rights,” makes him particularly nuts, as in “You just want to scream.” The reason? “She lies,” he says flatly.

“Barbara Loe Fisher inflames people against me. And wrongly. I’m in this for the same reason she is. I care about kids. Does she think Merck is paying me to speak about vaccines? Is that the logic?” he asks, exasperated. (Merck is doing no such thing). But when it comes to mandating vaccinations, Offit says, Fisher is right about him: He is an adamant supporter.

Regular readers may have noticed that I almost never accuse anyone of lying. The reason is that I tend to believe that most anti-vaccine activists really and truly believe in their pseudoscience. Consequently, when they spread misinformation and outright nonsense, they are not technically lying, at least not most of the time, because they have no clue that what they are saying is false. Indeed, although I do not know the specifics upon which Dr. Offit based his claim that Loe Fisher “lies” (although having read some of the vitriolic attacks on Dr. Offit by members of the anti-vaccine movement I can certainly understand why he might come to that conclusion), I do know that she is profoundly wrong about the science of vaccines and, utterly impervious to any science contradicting her viewpoint, spreads misinformation, so much so that whether Loe Fisher believes what she says or knows it to be false almost becomes a moot point when so much egregious misinformation and pseudoscience is spread against the backdrop of mountains of evidence showing that they are not scientifically valid. The end effect is more or less the same in a practical sense, although whether it is in a legal sense I do not know.

Even so, in her complaint Loe Fisher takes takes Jenny McCarthy’s disingenuous claim that she is “not anti-vaccine, but pro-safe vaccine” to whole new heights of bizarre contortion. I’ve written about this technique before. Fisher is very clever and couches her views in rhetoric of freedom and “informed consent.” Yet, it is very clear from the NVIC website what its true agenda is. For instance, there is a “memorial” for “vaccine victims,” which states:

They are the men, women, and children who have died or been injured by vaccines in nations around the world for the past 200 years. This is a virtual Memorial dedicated to those whose lives have been forever changed by vaccines they were often required by law to use.

And concludes:

Our hope is that, by honoring those who are casualties of mass vaccination policies, there will be greater public awareness of the need to value and care as much about those who are harmed by the complications of vaccines as we care about those who are harmed by the complications of infectious diseases. This International Memorial for Vaccine Victims is offered to the world as testimony of the need to protect the biological integrity of life on this planet.

The NVIC also runs a website called Stand Up! Be Counted!, which states: “No Forced Vaccination. Not in America.” It also uses common anti-vaccine tropes, such as confusing correlation with causation for the “autism epidemic.” Meanwhile the NVIC page about the H1N1 vaccine cites dubious studies on mercury in vaccines, in particular the discredited Hewitson study that I blogged about here and here. Then there’s the Vaccine Law Firm Directory she maintains of lawyers ready to sue for vaccine injury. But perhaps most telling of all is the recent NVIC conference, in which luminaries of the anti-vaccine fringe presented their views and “data,” and in which the man who started the fear that the MMR vaccine causes autism based on the shoddiest of science and whom Barbara Loe Fisher herself has vociferously defended, namely Andrew Wakefield, was given NVIC’s Humanitarian Award. The conference also included total cranks such as Gary Null, who is anti-vaccine to the core, an HIV/AIDS denialist, coffee enema advocate, and supporter of cancer quackery, and David Ayoub, whose claim to fame is that he thinks that mass vaccination programs are a plot by the Illuminati, complete with black helicopters. Quite frankly, from my point of view, if Barbara Loe Fisher isn’t anti-vaccine, she sure has an amazingly odd way of showing it. It would be very interesting to ask her whether there is anything or any evidence that could ever persuade her that vaccination is far safer than the diseases vaccinated against. I tend to doubt it, although I have no doubt, given her silver tongue, that she’d dance around the question quite skillfully, move the goal posts, or propose impossible-to-meet (in the real world, at least) standard of evidence.

My guess is that Loe Fisher’s lawsuit has very little to do with her reputation. After all, among real scientists knowledgeable about vaccination (as opposed to anti-vaccine “scientists” like Andrew Wakefield) her reputation is that of a promoter of pseudoscience; in other words, her only scientific reputation is a bad one. Moreover, among Loe Fisher’s core constituency, I highly doubt that Dr. Offit’s saying “she lies” about her would have any effect whatsoever on its opinion of her veracity, other than, perhaps, to make her fans love and believe her all the more. After all, in the circles that she travels, Dr. Offit is viewed as practically akin to Satan himself and routinely castigated as “Dr. Proffit.” However, having her veracity called into doubt by a real vaccine scientist could potentially hurt Loe Fisher in her efforts to win mainstream acceptance, and that is probably the real concern driving the lawsuit.

Another reason that Fisher’s frequent, impassioned, indignant denials that she is anti-vaccine are hard to believe is that she is very one-sided in her application of her appeals to freedom. She states over and over again that she is for “informed consent” and the right of parents to express “philosophical exemptions.” No doubt a libertarian argument could be made on political and philosophical grounds to support such a position. But, as PalMD shows, when a private institution decides that it will require that students be fully vaccinated according to the recommended schedule before they can attend school, suddenly Fisher isn’t so supportive of the whole freedom thing anymore. For example, when a Jewish school in Pittsburgh decided that it would not accept philosphical exemptions, would require that its students, other than those with legtimate medical exemptions, be fully vaccinated, and would not accept a letter from anyone other than a child’s primary care physician in order to grant a medical exemption, Fisher was most displeased:

According to Loe Fisher, the federal vaccine injury compensation program, established by the National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act of 1986, has paid more than $2 billion to families of children who have been injured or died as a result of vaccination.

“Vaccination should not be separated out from the informed consent paradigm,” she said.

Since the establishment of the CDC and American Academy of Pediatrics recommendations regarding vaccination requirements, Loe Fisher continued, families seeking medical exemption from vaccination have found it rough going.

Because it’s hard for a family to find a physician to provide a medical exemption, Loe Fisher said, many must rely on the religious or philosophical exemption, available in almost all states, to avoid vaccination.

She is not in favor of a private school refusing to accept those exemptions which are provided for by state law.

“It is questionable for a school to narrow those exemptions and not allow a parent who believes a child is at risk to take an exemption,” Loe Fisher said.

In other words, Fisher is against the government’s mandating vaccination before a child can attend school, public or private, but if the administration of a private school voluntarily decides without any government laws or pressure that it is going to require vaccination of its students before admission and not accept philosphical exemptions, she thinks that the government should have the power to enforce philosophical vaccine exemptions on it. Her advocacy of freedom with respect to vaccination is rather one-sided, don’t you think? After all, I bet Loe Fisher supports the right of private schools, such as Waldorf Schools, that do not require vaccination, often have high percentages of unvaccinated children, and, of late, have become incubators for outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases, not to require that her students be vaccinated. Thus, her support for “vaccine choice” except when it is the choice of a private institution to mandate vaccines casts her assertion in her complaint that she “does not seek to prohibit or advise against vaccination but to ensure that vaccination is voluntary and that it proceeds following fully informed consent” in a rather dubious light and contributes to the overall impression that she is in reality not a “vaccine safety” activist, but an anti-vaccine activist.

In my opinion, after having read her website and seen her quoted in many interviews, the bottom line is that Barbara Loe Fisher is anti-vaccine. True, she’s good at cloaking what I consider to be her anti-vaccine views in rhetoric of “freedom” and “informed consent,” but whenever push comes to shove, she’s against vaccines and clearly thinks that they do more harm than good. Nowhere have I ever seen her say that she supports a single vaccination as routine. Not one. Her entire organization supports the scientifically discredited notion that vaccines cause autism and holds conferences with anti-vaccine speakers. It’s hard not to conclude from this that she is anti-vaccine. Moreover, Barbara Loe Fisher is one to talk about libel, after what she said about Dr. Offit the very article by Amy Wallace over which she is suing:

Against this backdrop, Fisher, a skilled debater who often faces down articulate, well-informed scientists on live TV, mentioned Offit frequently. She called him the leading “pro-forced-vaccination proponent” and cast him as a man who walks in lockstep with the pharmaceutical companies and demonizes caring parents.

Maybe Dr. Offit should countersue for libel. It sounds as though he may have a case. After all, on the NVIC website, there is this little tidbit as well:

Offit’s attempt to exonerate DPT is part of a larger effort to convince the public – and drug company stockholders – that most vaccines, including his own, have no risks whatsoever.

I’d love to see Loe Fisher present evidence that Dr. Offit has ever said that most vaccines, including his own, have no risks whatsoever. But attacking Dr. Offit in such terms is not enough for Loe Fisher. As Kim Wombles points out, Loe Fisher sees her fight against vaccine mandates in apocalyptic terms, as she describes on the NVIC website:

The discrimination begins, always, with the majority in a society pointing the finger at a minority for somehow endangering the public health and welfare. Individuals in the minority group are singled out as different – ethnically, biologically, spiritually, morally – from the majority. The human impulse to fear, judge, marginalize or eliminate those different from the rest has left a blood soaked trail winding throughout the entire history of man from the Great Inquisition to the Holocaust; from the killing fields of Cambodia to Rwanda, Serbia and Tibet; while the persecution of those with leprosy, TB, AIDS, mental illness, and handicaps continues in every society.

Later in the same article, I found this quote by Loe Fisher likening Andrew Wakefield to a victim of the Inquisition:

I thought of the persecution of Andrew Wakefield, M.D., who is being punished by his British colleagues for daring to report an association between the MMR (measles-mumps-rubella) vaccine and neuroimmune dysfunction, including inflammatory bowel disease and autism. Like when the heads of heretics were impaled upon stakes on the Tower of London as a warning for all to see, the Wakefield inquisition is a spectacle designed to persuade all doctors contemplating questioning the safety of current mass vaccination policies to remain silent.

And this allusion to the Holocaust:

Holocaust survivor Elie Weisel has said “When you take an idea or a concept and turn it into an abstraction, that opens the way to take human beings and turn them, also, into abstractions.”

Individuals harmed by vaccines are not abstractions. They are human beings who deserve to be spared a lifetime of suffering rather than being thrown under the bus to prop up forced mass vaccination policies that fail to acknowledge biodiversity within the family of man.

When Barbara Loe Fisher likens the supporters of vaccination programs who correctly criticize her and those holding views similar to hers as “anti-vaccine” to Nazis or the Inquisition and their criticism to what the Nazis did to the Jews during the Holocaust or the Inquisition did to heretics, when she likens criticism of her stance on vaccines to the genocides in Cambodia and Rwanda, she shouldn’t be too surprised when a lot of people conclude that she is anti-vaccine, not pro-safe vaccine.

Just like those of the Society of Homeopaths, “Dr.” Obi, the British Chiropractors Association against Simon Singh, or Matthias Rath against Ben Goldacre, Loe Fisher’s lawsuit is also likely more about shutting up critics than it is about protecting her reputation. Clearly, Wallace’s article hurt the anti-vaccine movement. Moreover, if there’s one good thing about 2009, it’s that more and more mainstream media outlets stopped portraying the anti-vaccine movement as poor, persecuted parents and more and more portrayed it as a threat to public health based on pseudoscience, which it is. Yes, it’s true that individual stories from the movement can be very sad and compelling; many of these parents and their children have had a horribly rough time. However, we do not have to downplay their difficulties or insult them personally to point out that they are profoundly wrong based on science when they blame vaccines for their children’s autism and that their activities do represent a serious threat to public health. More and more reporters, like Trine Tsouderos and Amy Wallace, have come to realize that. Such reporters represent a threat. Moreover, demonizing these journalists online, as the anti-vaccine movement tried to do with Amy Wallace and Trine Tsouderos (the latter of whom was included in a Photoshopped collage with Steve Novella preparing to make a Thanksgiving feast of a baby), doesn’t work very well. That leaves lawsuits to intimidate those who would speak out and discourage other media outlets from writing similar stories.

I wonder. Sense About Science did a fantastic job of publicizing the Simon Singh libel case and using it to promote the need for reforming the U.K.’s libel laws. I wonder if it’s time for a similar movement right here in the U.S. to prevent promoters of pseudoscience from using the law to intimidate and harass defenders of science-based medicine. Although Dr. Offit probably has the financial means to defend himself, there are a lot of writers and bloggers who do not, should someone with deep pockets decide to try to silence them with a frivolous lawsuit. We definitely have a problem here, and I predict it’s going to get worse as pseudoscience movements like the anti-vaccine movement rightly become more and more marginalized.


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The life cycle of translational research

ResearchBlogging.orgI’m a translational researcher. To those of you who aren’t familiar with what that means, it means (I hope) that I study potential therapies in the lab and try to translate them into actual therapies that will cure patients of breast cancer — or, at the very least, improve their odds of survival or prolong survival when cure is not possible. Translational research is extremely important; indeed, it is the life blood of science-based medicine, with basic science producing the discoveries and clinical research the applications of these discoveries. When it works, it’s the way that science leads medicine to advance. However, sometimes I think that it’s a bit oversold. For one thing, it’s not easy, and it’s not always obvious what basic science findings can be translated into useful therapies, be it for cancer (my specialty) or any other disease. For another thing, it takes a long time. The problem is that the hype about how much we as a nation invest in translational research all too often leads to a not unreasonable expectation that there will be a rapid return on that investment. Such an expectation is often not realized, at least not as fast and frequently as we would like, and the reason has little to do with the quality of the science being funded. It has arguably more to do with how long it takes for a basic science observation to follow the long and winding road to producing a viable therapy. But how long is that long and winding road?

A lot longer than many, even many scientists, realize. At least, that’s the case if a paper from about a year ago by John Ioannidis in Science is any indication. The article appeared in the Policy Forum in the September 5 issue and is entitled Life Cycle of Translational Research for Medical Interventions. As you may recall, Dr. Ioannidis made a name for himself a couple of years ago by publishing a pair of articles provocatively entitled Contradicted and Initially Stronger Effects in Highly Cited Clinical Research and Why Most Published Research Findings Are False, which Steve Novella blogged about a couple of years ago.

Dr. Ioannidis lays it out right in the first paragraph:

Despite a major interest in translational research (1-3), development of new, effective medical interventions is difficult. Of 101 very promising claims of new discoveries with clear clinical potential that were made in major basic science journals between 1979 and 1983, only five resulted in interventions with licensed clinical use by 2003 and only one had extensive clinical use (4). Drug discovery faces major challenges (5-8). Moreover, for several interventions supported by high-profile clinical studies, subsequent evidence from larger and/or better studies contradicts their effectiveness or shows smaller benefits (9). The problem seems to be even greater for nonrandomized studies (9).

In order to figure out how long translational research can take to come to fruition, Dr. Ioannidis looked at some fairly high profile therapies (defined as therapies claimed to be effective in at least one study about it that has been cited 1,000 or more times) between 1990 to 2004. The reason that this particular definition was chosen is to use studies for which a milestone at which a therapy is widely recognized to be effective and safe. That, by the paper’s definition, is the point at which a basic science finding has finally been completely “translated” into an accepted therapy. The problem then becomes to identify exactly when such therapies began as a grain of a basic science finding or an idea based on basic science observations. This is not always easy to identify. In the case of one of my major areas of research interest, tumor angiogenesis, it’s relatively easy to cite Dr. Judah Folkman’s famous 1971 paper proposing the targeting of tumor angiogenesis as a therapy for cancer. Oh, we could quibble over whether that was truly the beginning. After all, it was hypothesized that angiogenesis was important to tumor growth decades before. However, the 1971 paper was the first explicit proposal to develop strategies to target tumor angiogenesis to treat cancer. Be that as it may, I’ve mentioned before that it was thirty years before an actual therapy used in humans was developed as an example of just how long it can take.

Dr. Ioannidis has tried to quantify this gap in a more general manner, which he refers to as the “translation lag.” What he found is quite sobering for people who are anxious for the rapid translation of basic science:

To place each discovery in time, we identified the year when the earliest journal publication on preparation, isolation, or synthesis appeared or the earliest patent was awarded (whichever occurred first). Overall, the median translation lag was 24 years (interquartile range, 14 to 44 years) between first description and earliest highly cited article (see the chart). This was longer on average (median 44 versus 17 years) for those interventions that were fully or partially “refuted” (contradicted or having initially stronger effects) than for nonrefuted ones (replicated or remaining unchallenged) (P = 0.004).

In a secondary analysis, we defined the time of discovery as the first description (publication or awarded patent) of any agent in the wider intervention class (those with similar characteristics and mode of action). Early translational work may be performed with different agents in the same class compared with those that eventually get translated into postulated high-profile clinical benefits. Analyses using information on the wider class of agents showed even longer translation lag, with median of 27 (interquartile range, 21 to 50) years and similar prolongations of the translation lag for refuted interventions.

This is represented in this table:

1298-1-med

One thing that you may notice on the table above that Dr. Ioannidis also did was that he also looked at some treatments or interventions that had been highly cited and were later refuted. What makes this interesting is that therapies that were never later refuted by clinical trials after the highly cited clinical trial that was used to support their use had a markedly shorter translation lag, 16.5 years (range 4 to 50 years) in the main analysis and 22 years (range 6 to 50 years) if the wider class of drugs is considered. In contrast, for remedies whose efficacy was later refuted, the translation lag was 44 years, as mentioned in the passage cited above. What could be the explanation? Dr. Ioannidis speculates:

We observed that most highly cited claims that were eventually refuted had a very slow translation history preceding them [e.g., flavonoids, vitamin E, and estrogens were already available for many decades before observational (nonrandomized) studies claimed implausibly large survival benefits in the 1990s]. We conclude that claims for large benefits from old interventions require extra caution as they are likely to be exaggerated.

I’m half tempted to mention that there is a bit of an elephant in the room here in that it makes one wonder about complementary and alternative medicine, and how the existing studies would fare in this sort of analysis. Of course, one would be unlikely to find a paper on a CAM intervention cited 1,000 times showing efficacy. (In fact, for some it would be hard to find a paper strongly demonstrating efficacy of most CAM therapies.) But think of it this way: Many of these therapies have been around for hundreds of years, and there hasn’t been compelling evidence of their efficacy. Think of homeopathy, for instance. Samuel Hahnemann thought of it over 200 years ago, and we still don’t have evidence of its efficacy.

I know, I know, I’m dragging one of my personal peeves into this, and it is ridiculous to use the term “science” or “translational research” in referring to something like homeopathy, but I couldn’t resist. Mea culpa.

We can quibble about whether his methodology was the most appropriate or whether he picked the correct milestones to compare, but what Dr. Ioannidis shows is that, in essence, a lot of “translational” research takes close to two decades to bear fruit, and it’s fairly uncommon for it to take less than a decade. Moreover, as Dr. Ionnidis points out, less than 5% of promising claims based on basic science ever come to fruition as actual therapies. In other words, translational research is hard. Few promising ideas make it to therapies, and it takes a long time for those that do. Indeed, Dr. Ioannidis makes this recommendation:

Our analysis documents objectively show the long length of time that passes between discovery and translation. As scientists, we should convey to our funders and the public the immense difficulty of the scientific discovery process. Successful translation is demanding and takes a lot of effort and time even under the best circumstances; making unrealistic promises for quick discoveries and cures may damage the credibility of science in the eyes of the public.

His other recommendations are rather obvious: multidisciplinary collaborations with focused targets, incentives for testing claims in high quality, unbiased research, and the that large clinical trials with repeatability are required to demonstrate the efficacy of therapies. One recommendation, however, caught my eye:

New drug discovery is probably essential for common diseases where the existing drug armamentarium has been already extensively screened. Conversely, for uncommon and neglected diseases, the existing drug options may remain largely untested, and old drugs may find interesting new uses (12-14).

Actually, that’s a recommendation that’s been pretty obvious for a long time. For common diseases, existing drugs and related drugs have been tested and retested, and many, many variations on the old have been tried. For substantial breakthroughs, something new is required. Unfortunately, the profit incentive in drug manufacturing tends too much towards “me-too” drugs. The second part is actually very relevant to what I do. Testing such “off-label uses” of drugs can yield surprising results. Indeed, one of my two research projects is based on exactly such an off-label use. However, ironically it is a treatment for a very common disease, breast cancer, that I am testing; so Dr. Ioannidis is not entirely correct. Interesting new uses for drugs do not always make themselves known in uncommon and neglected diseases.

Regardless, however, what the public needs to understand is that translational research takes a long time. What they also need to understand is that the foundation upon which translational research rests is a strong core of basic science research. Without a wide variety of basic science findings upon which to base treatments, translational research has little to choose from in moving such findings to the next step. Contrary to popular belief as well, when there are robust basic science findings upon which to base a potential therapy, the road from laboratory bench discovery to usable therapy is long and winding.

REFERENCE:

D. G. Contopoulos-Ioannidis, G. A. Alexiou, T. C. Gouvias, J. P. A. Ioannidis (2008). Life Cycle of Translational Research for Medical Interventions Science, 321 (5894), 1298-1299 DOI: 10.1126/science.1160622


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Our Family Portrait

Voyager I was launched on September 5, 1977, and by February, 1990, had reached a vantage point at the edge of our solar system’s planets.  On February 14, 1990, NASA ordered Voyager to turn around and take images of the planets from far out in space.  This resulted in what is known as our Family Portrait.

File:Family portrait (Voyager 1).png
NASA/JPL

One image, called “pale blue dot”, became famous as the title of Carl Sagan’s book.  The “pale blue dot” is, of course, Earth.

File:PaleBlueDot.jpg
NASA/JPL

As Carl Sagan says, “all of human history has happened on that tiny pixel, which is our only home.”

This image:

File:Voyager blue dot.svg
Image:  Shereth, 12 June 2008, All rights reserved

shows Voyager’s path and where it was in space when the images were made.  Voyager was 3,762,136,324.748 miles from Earth.  Mars and Mercury couldn’t be imaged because of their position in relation to the sun.

We all know about the “pale blue dot”, of course.  But when was the last time you really looked at our tiny, beautiful home as it appears from space?

The Pale Blue Dot of Earth - Detail
NASA/JPL
.

You are here.

If you’re interested, here is an excerpt to Carl Sagan’s book.

Once Again, Cold Weather Doesn’t Disprove Global Warming | 80beats

snowstormWhen the Copenhagen climate summit ended in disappointment and finger-pointing, we saw again just how difficult it would be to get the world’s nations on board for an agreement to lower greenhouse emissions and slow global warming. This week brings another reminder of how far away we are from meaningful action: We can’t even get past the difference between weather and climate.

It’s bitter cold this week, even for January. Beijing had its coldest morning in almost 40 years and its biggest snowfall since 1951. Britain is suffering through its longest cold snap since 1981 [AP]. The southern United States is in the grip of freezing weather; the Midwest has seen dangerously cold wind chills far below zero. Trying to stave off the inevitable “where’s your global warming now” chants, the AP and other news sources rushed to run pieces trying to get across—one more time—that weather isn’t climate. The chants came, inevitably. But despite pundits and columnists who try to conflate the two to take the same old swings at global warming, a single bout of cold weather—or hot, for that matter—doesn’t actually say diddly squat about long-term climate patterns.

However, if one can set aside for a moment climate politics as usual and this weather-is-climate misunderstanding, the short-term weather patterns at play in our current spell of frigidity are pretty interesting. Whatever happened to this year’s El Niño, for instance? Shorter-term, naturally variable patterns such as El Niño account for seasonal differences — making one winter warmer or colder than another. But it takes a strong El Niño to dominate the pattern of a U.S. winter with unusually warm and dry conditions across the northern tier of the country, and cooler and wetter weather across the south, and the current El Niño is not strong [Discovery News].

In addition, there’s the curious case of the current Arctic Oscillation, which is rather out of sorts. Essentially, air pressure is measured at various places across the Arctic and at the middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere – about 45 degrees north, roughly the latitude of Milan, Montreal or Vladivostok. The difference between the average readings for the two latitudes gives the state of the Arctic Oscillation index [BBC News]. A positive reading means high pressure in the mid-latitudes and low pressure at the pole; a negative reading means it’s the opposite. And what we see right now is an “extraordinary negative plunge” to levels not seen since at least 1950, Andy Revkin shows at his New York Times blog. What these conditions mean is that cold air spills out of the Arctic down to mid-latitudes, which this time round includes much of Europe, tracts of the US and China [BBC News].

As you can see in the historical chart of the Arctic Oscillation, it’s a pretty scattershot phenomenon. But it’s an important one, which could help to explain why it’s frigid in the continental United States but unseasonably nice in some far northern locales. In 2001, after analyzing its impact on Northern Hemisphere winters, University of Washington researchers suggested that effects of the Arctic Oscillation on weather patterns “appear to be as far-reaching as those triggered by El Niño in the South Pacific” [Discovery News]. Jack Williams has more about this.

Related Content:
80beats: The New Murder-Mystery Game: Who Killed Copenhagen?
The Intersection: Fox News Presents a Classic “He Said, She Said” on Climate Science
The Intersection: Sounds Familiar
The Intersection: How the Global Warming Story Changed, Disastrously, Due to “ClimateGate”
DISCOVER: The Next Ice Age

Image: flickr / bsabarnowl


Smog Rules Could Cost Industry $90B–and Save $100B on Health Costs | 80beats

la-smog-webThe Environmental Protection Agency has announced its proposal to toughen up the standards for smog-causing pollutants, which would replace the standards set during the Bush administration.

The Obama administration’s proposal sets a primary standard for ground-level ozone of no more than 0.060 to 0.070 parts per million, to be phased in over two decades. Regions with the worst smog pollution, including much of the Northeast, Southern and Central California and the Chicago and Houston areas, would have more time than other areas to come into compliance [The New York Times]. The previous standard was 0.075 parts per million, set in 2008 despite government scientists’ objection that it was not strict enough. Smog is formed when a stew of nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds, carbon monoxide, and methane is baked in sunlight.

The new standard won’t be cheap, but proponents say it will save money, and lives, in the long run. The EPA estimates that by 2020 the proposal will cost $19 billion to $90 billion to implement and will yield health benefits worth $13 billion to $100 billion. The proposal would result in 1,500 to 12,000 avoided premature deaths by 2020, though the precise number depends on what limit the agency adopts [Washington Post]. Smog is linked to a wide variety of heart and respiratory diseases. Currently, a majority of the counties that are required to monitor ozone levels would not meet the new standard. If the 0.070 limit is adopted, 515 of the 675 counties that monitor ozone levels would be out of compliance.

Factories, oil and gas refineries, and power companies would be required to clean up their acts. “Coal-burning power plants are the 800-pound gorilla in the room,” John Walke, a clean air lawyer at the Natural Resources Defense Council, said about the industry that could get hit hardest. He said airplanes, ships, locomotives and off-road vehicles would also be targeted, perhaps more than automobiles, which have had to cut pollution since the 1970s [Reuters].

If approved, the new rules wouldn’t be phased in for several years. Whatever limit is selected, by the end of 2013, states must submit plans showing how areas that do not attain the new standard will be brought into compliance. The new rules would be phased in between 2014 and 2031, with deadlines depending on how dirty the air is in a given region [The New York Times]. The EPA will announce the new standard at the end of a 60 period to allow for public comment.

Related Content:
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80beats: When Laws Save Lives: Cleaner Air Increased Life Expectancy by 5 Months
DISCOVER: The Smoking Torch explains what smog does to an athlete’s lungs
DISCOVER: Air Pollution Linked to Genetic Mutations
DISCOVER: Fetuses Take Air Pollution to Heart

Image: flickr / jonlclark


New Villain in the Obesity Epidemic: Mean Gym Teachers | Discoblog

gym-teacherMy high school physical education teacher had a nickname for everyone. (Mine was “Little One” because I was the runt of the class. Better than “Chicken Bones,” as one scrawny boy was dubbed.) It didn’t bother me, but according to research recently published in Qualitative Research in Sport and Exercise, I dodged a bullet–or maybe the dodgeball.

Billy Strean, a professor at the University of Alberta’s Faculty of Physical Education and Recreation, says “a negative lifelong attitude towards physical activity can be determined by either a good or a bad experience, based on the personal characteristics of the coach or instructor. For example, negative experiences may come from a teacher who has low energy, is unfair and/or someone who embarrasses students.”

One person in Strean’s study shared this: “I am a 51-year-old-woman whose childhood experiences with sports, particularly as handled in school, were so negative that even as I write this my hands are sweating and I feel on the verge of tears. I have never experienced the humiliation nor felt the antipathy toward any other aspect of life as I do toward sports.”

To help combat the obesity epidemic and give people a healthier attitude towards exercise, Strean suggests coaches and teachers emphasize fun and, until kids are in their teens, consider not keeping scores.

Not sure how my high school classmate “Ace” would have felt about that….

Related Content:
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80beats: Despite Exercise, Zero-G Makes Astronauts as Wimpy as 80-Year-Olds
80beats: All Gain, No Pain: New Drugs Could Mimic the Effects of Exercise

Image: iStockphoto


African skeptic needs our help! | Bad Astronomy

Leo Igwe is a skeptic in Africa who has tirelessly and heroically fought the forces of unreason. He is director of the Centre for Inquiry in Nigeria and executive director of the Nigerian Humanist Movement, and has battled against female genital mutilation, the oppression of women in Africa, witch hunters, and all manners of religious-based (generally Sharia law) woe in that continent.

But he’s in trouble. Igwe accused a man of raping a ten-year-old girl in Nigeria. This man has turned around and accused Igwe and his father of murdering another person — an apparently false charge, since the man was examined and found to have died due to an HIV/AIDS related illness. Igwe was arrested, temporarily imprisoned, and then let out on bail. But the pressure is on, and the Nigerian government is not doing a whole lot to help.

Please note all this is alleged, but is coming from multiple sources. You can find more information on on the Think Humanism forum. Also, Kylie Sturgess has been on this since it started, and has more information on this case with updates and what can be done to help.


Please Send "Gordo" Fullerton Your Get Well Wishes – Update

- Keith's note: Linn LeBlanc, Executive Director, Astronaut Scholarship Foundation sent a note out to a bunch of people who, in turn sent it to other people. I eventually got 7 copies. I posted it here - as I have in the past in similar situations thinking it would be nice for readers to also send in wishes. The Astronaut Scholarship Foundation then called me to complain that it was posted with contact information so I removed it. I certainly wish Mr. Fullerton well and hope that he has a speedy and full recovery. However, the Astronaut Scholarship Foundation really needs to take a few PR lessons i.e. if a family (understandably) wants privacy then the Foundation should not send out an email to people that contains home addresses and emails and openly ask people to send cards and messages.

Sensors and Imagers Improve Short-Term Weather Forecasts

Advanced Baseline Imager & sounder instruments
ITT Space Systems Division
Rochester, NY
585-269-5600
http://www.ssd.itt.com

Imager and sounder instruments
designed and built by ITT Space
Systems Division were launched last
June aboard the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Geostationary Operational Environ -
mental Satellite-O (GOES-O). These
core instruments provide crucial data to
the National Weather Service for severe
weather forecasting. Images from the
weather satellite instruments are used
for tracking and forecasting hurricanes
and other severe weather.

Hands On Casio’s EX-FH100 High Speed Exilim Camera: Slow Mo Tech is Maturing [Cameras]

I love Casio slow motion cameras, even if their stills are generally not all that great. The new EX-FH100 is pocketsized, has a 10x zoom and a new 120frame per second mode that doesn't have low light issues. Love it.

Older cameras would be impossible to use at 300FPS indoors, because the grain and exposure would become an issue. A quick test on the floor of CES showed that even zoomed in, the 120FPS mode, benefiting from the highly light sensitive backlit CMOS, did really well. And truthfully, 120FPS is better for sports, etc than 300FPS, in my opinion. The 120FPS mode also has another benefit — 640 x 480 pixel res, which is more usable than the old 300FPS mode's 512 x 384 res. It has modes up to 1000FPS, though.

I'm getting one of these, without a doubt.







Do You Have Enough Friends For D-Link’s DIR-632 802.11n Router? [Routers]

D-Link's giving your popularity the benefit of the doubt by offering 8 Ethernet ports on their new DIR-632 802.11n router. If you're worried about all those open ports bumming you out, D-Link has 3 other new devices to check out.

If the DIR-632's 8 ports seem like overkill, there's the D-Link Rush (DAP-1560), the Touch (DAP-865), and a new 802.11n pocket router that has no epithet.

The Rush is a secure, powerful access point designed to beef up your current home network for bandwidth intensive content, like HD movies. The Touch, as its name suggests, has a 3" touch screen for, you know, changing all those settings you change on your router. The pocket router can function as its own router or as an access point, extending an existing network.

The new routers will be available in the first half of 2010, and prices will be announced at launch. In the case of the DIR-632, that gives you just a few months to secure your LAN party RSVPs. [GDGT]

D-LINK ANNOUNCES THREE NEW 802.11n
WIRELESS HOME ROUTERS FOR GREATER SPEED,
DISTANCE AND PORTABILITY

The D-Linkâ Rush™ and D-Link Touch™ in Fast Lane of Home Connectivity; Wireless N Pocket Router
Provides Unlimited Mobility

LAS VEGAS, CES Booth 36232, South Hall, LVCC, Jan. 6, 2010 - D-Link today announced three innovative 802.11n wireless devices for the home - one that boosts network speeds to unprecedented levels for existing routers, another that combines high speed and range with stylish functionality in the digital home, and yet another that offers convenient wireless connectivity on the go.

The D-Linkâ Rush™ (DAP-1560) is D-Link's fastest, most far-reaching and most secure wireless device yet. It takes home networking to a new level of performance for homeowners who demand the fastest streaming possible of high-definition content, such as movies, HD video and photos. There is no need to replace the home router - its unique 4x4 antenna design helps boost the power of any existing 802.11 a, b, g or n router with up to 600Mbps* speed and greater signal coverage.

The dual-band selectable device transmits in 2.4GHz wireless band for applications such as surfing the Internet or in 5GHz wireless band for HD media streaming, online gaming and large data file transfer. The latest D-Link AP can also be used as a wireless client to Ethernet-enabled media devices such as video game consoles, Digital Video Recorders (DVR), and Digital Media Adapters (DMA) for seamless access to the Internet.

The D-Link Touch™ (DIR-865) blends power, speed, range, security, functionality and energy efficiency into one economical and attractive router for homes or small businesses with ever-growing multimedia applications. It sports a 3-inch interactive touch screen for easy setup, configuration and management of the router and Internet traffic.
Its concurrent dual-band capabilities and three data streams support data transfer rates up to 450Mbps*, allowing users to stream HD content faster than ever before in the 5GHz wireless band, while surfing the Internet without lag-time and checking email on the 2.4GHz band. The 802.11n Wi-Fi router is backward compatible to earlier standards (802.11 a/b/g).

The D-Link Wireless N Pocket Router is an ideal travel companion featuring multi-mode functionality. It can be used either as a wireless router to create an 802.11n Wi-Fi network anywhere one is needed, or as an access point (AP) to add Wi-Fi to an existing wired network. It is small enough for travellers to carry with them, includes a travel case for convenience and SharePort™ technology to enable users to share USB devices. The device also can be used to connect an Ethernet-ready device, such as a desktop PC or Xbox 360®, to a Wi-Fi network for increased flexibility and convenience.

Lightweight and compact with its own travel case, the Pocket Router is small enough to carry while traveling and sets up easily to share an Internet connection or connect to an existing wired network in a conference room, hotel room or anywhere a Wi-Fi network is needed. It delivers powerful 802.11n performance and offers the latest wireless security features to help prevent unauthorized access.

Price and Availability

The D-Link Rush, the D-Link Touch and the D-Link Wireless N Pocket Router will be available in the first half of 2010 through the company's network of retail and etail outlets, and at D-Link's online store, http://www.dlinkshop.com. Pricing will be announced when the products ship.



Taser Wants to Help Stop the Sexting Craze [Taser]

Taser, not content just helping cops electrocute old people and the handicapped, has decided to focus some of its energy on stopping sexting and texting while driving. Not with electrocution, sadly.

The tech itself is pretty ho-hum: it lets parents monitor texts and control when they can use their phone. Why the hell they're doing this when they normally make, you know, tasers, is beyond me. But hey, power to you, Taser.



At CES? Join Wilson For a Talk About the Future of GPS Navigation [Announcements]

Quick heads up that I will be moderating what promises to be a great panel on the future of GPS navigation, starting in a little under an hour here at the Las Vegas Convention Center—3pm, North Hall N260. We've got amazing people from TomTom, Garmin, Nokia, TeleNav and SiRF/CSR on the panel, and my guess is that Apple and Google will come up at least once each—every 3 minutes. Here are some more details: [CES]



The City of Ordos Is the Ghost City of the Future [Architecture]

China keeps growing like a giant red octopus fed by nuclear power and monosodium glutamate, a country that keeps spending money in pharaonic projects. Some useful, like the fastest train in the world. And some eerie and worthless, like Ordos.

The city of Ordos was founded on February 26, 2001. Ordos means "palaces" in Mongolian, and it's richer than Beijing. In fact, with a $14,500 GDP per capita, it's one of the richest in the whole country. With 1,548,000 inhabitants, Ordos is not exactly empty. But much of its modern architecture, sometimes awesomely futuristic, sometimes nafftastically overdeveloped and underdesigned, remains completely empty. The density of this city is only 17.8 people per square kilometer. By comparison, New York City has 157.91 habitants per square kilometer, San Francisco has 6,688.4, and Madrid 5,293.69. Even the city of Dubai, which has only grew in recent years, has 408.18 people per square kilometer.

And yet, the city of Ordos keeps growing like its motherland, with no control and making little sense at times. If at all. [Wikipedia]