Simulator

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where can i get an electrcal simulator programe to see if my projects is working i'm working with gensets

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Schalk

Will Climate Change Really Spur Mass Migrations of Mexicans to the U.S.? | 80beats

MexicanFarmEvery time governments fail to take serious steps on climate change, it seems the parlor game of predicting what our warmer world will look like heats up. And the newest of those predictions, appearing this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, pokes at what is presently one of the country’s most sensitive spots: immigration.

Michael Oppenheimer of Princeton published a study that estimates that between 1.4 and 6.7 million people could become climate refugees emigrating from rural Mexico to the United States between now and 2080. That’s 2 to 10 percent of the present Mexican population, and it doesn’t include people who would make the move for other reasons.

Is it a major concern? Yes. How much stock should you put in those statistics? Not much.

Oppenheimer and colleagues used projections of decreased agricultural output driven by rising temperatures to get these figures.

In the worst-case scenario would occur if temperatures were to rise by one to three degrees Celsius (1.8 to 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2080, if farming methods had not been adapted to cope with global warming and if higher levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide had not spurred plant growth. This would mean crop yields in Mexico would fall by 39 to 48 percent, the study said [AFP].

Other scientists agreed that a warming Earth could spur more migration, but questioned whether it is truly possible to disentangle climate change from other forces and pin statistics just on that.

The social consequences of global warming are always the hardest things to predict. Immigration rates are never driven by physics alone, but depend on plenty of other factors, such as U.S. border policies or the changing structure of Mexico’s economy. And it’s always difficult to tie specific social trends to climate change. People in rural areas have been migrating for a long time, whether to seek out work or because the rainfall’s dried up or the soil’s eroded [The New Republic].

In addition, the Arizona Daily Star reports that the fertility rate in Mexico has trended downward for decades. Its continued drop could cut into any migration increase tied to climate change. Douglas Massey, another Princeton professor, told the Los Angeles Times that even if agricultural production worsens, Mexicans aren’t going to come in a mass exodus in the U.S. unless there are lots of jobs here to be had.

Oppenheimer himself free acknowledges the fudgy nature of predicting climate change’s effects, and that while the numbers make for a sexy headline, you shouldn’t take them too seriously. He says:

“Our intention was to show that this problem is a substantial one. Our goal was not to project specific outcomes 80 years from now but to show the magnitude of problems that policymakers ought to pay more attention to. I don’t want to say that this will be the single biggest factor driving immigration, but it could become among the largest factors” [Arizona Daily Star].

Related Content:
80beats: Senators Cut Climate Change Rules and Renewables from Energy Bill
80beats: The New Murder-Mystery Game: Who Killed Copenhagen?
DISCOVER: It’s Getting Hot in Here: The Big Battle Over Climate Science, interviews with Judith Curry & Michael Mann
DISCOVER: The State of the Climate—And of Climate Science

Image: flickr / wonderlane


Pre-order: VIVA IL FUTURISMO! Conference Papers

New publication of VIVA IL FUTURISMO! Conference Papers

Zukunftsmusik oder Schnee von gestern? Interdisziplinarität, Internationalität und Aktualität des Futurismus
[Arte dell' avvenire o acqua passata? Interdisciplinarità, internazionalità e attualità del Futurismo.]

Papers of the international conference in Cologne, July 13 2009 – An event out of the cultural and artistic festival Viva il Futurismo!
Language: German and Italian
Content: 9 essays (6 in German with Italian summary, 3 in Italian with German summary), 92 pictures

Online preview

More about VIVA IL FUTURISMO! and the conference:

Contact for information and order: futurismus@kulturserver.de

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Video: A Hairy Carpet of Daddy Longlegs Fends off Predators | Discoblog

Look closely: This hairy, pulsating carpet is actually a group of harvestmen, an arachnid commonly known as daddy longlegs.

This aggregation of harvestmen helps fend off potential predators. When one of the arachnids senses danger, he moves his body up and down to create a vibration; a whole jiggling group of daddy longlegs provides an even greater deterrent. There’s nothing quite like teamwork to make your skin crawl. Via Boingboing:

Related content:
Discoblog: Spiders, Apparently Concerned About Nutrition, Eat Ants From the Head Down
Discoblog: Egad! Oldest Spider Web Dates Back to Dinosaur Era
Discoblog: Beetle-Inspired Adhesive Lifts Lego Man; Could One Day Do Same for Regular Man


Wiring Diagram for 2 HP yl90l-4 Electric Motor

When moving YL1236 lathe the complete electrical box was broken, all I have is 6 wires on the motor and 3 from the contactors. There are no labels on the wires.

On the motor are 6 wires coming from 2 holes in the motor.

Top hole

Red, red, black

Bottom hole

Red, red yellow

Kepler News: Why Is NASA So Slow To Respond? (Update)

Our galaxy is rich in Earth-sized planets, CNN

"Since the time of Nicolaus Copernicus five centuries ago, people have wondered whether there are other planets like Earth in the universe. Today scientists are closer than ever to an answer -- and it appears to be that the Milky Way galaxy is rich in Earth-sized planets, according to astronomer Dimitar Sasselov. Drawing on new findings from a NASA telescope, he told the TED Global conference in Oxford, England earlier this month that nearly 150 Earth-sized planets have been detected so far. He estimated that the overall number of planets in the galaxy with "similar conditions to the conditions that we experience here on Earth is pretty staggering. It's about 100 million such planets."

Millions of Earths? Talk causes a stir, Alan Boyle's Cosmiclog, MSNBC

"NASA Watch's Keith Cowing said he was confused by Sasselov's seemingly significant non-news: "The Kepler folks seem to want to have things both ways," he wrote. "On one hand they want to tantalize us (and select audiences) with what they have found but yet at the same time they do not want to put their reputations on the line when people start taking their comments as fact. This project clearly needs to put some PR strategy in place." My efforts to get comments from Sasselov or other members of the Kepler team today were unsuccessful, but NASA spokesman Michael Mewhinney did tell me that the scientists are preparing a fresh response and would provide further clarification on Tuesday. So check back here for updates as they become available."

Keith's 2:28 pm EDT note: My reaction to this news is not unlike my reaction to the opening scene of the early Star Trek Enterprise episode "Strange New World" - and the crew's reaction to seeing an M-Class planet unexpectedly fill the view out a window. As Crewman Novakovich comments to Crewman Cutler, "You'd think that the Captain would make an announcement or something". The discussion between Captain Archer and T'Pol about Archer's impatience to see and explore the new world is equally appropriate to the current Kepler story.

ARC PAO's Michael Mewhinney and his cohorts have had several days to come up with a response. While the world is buzzing about this astonishing news we've heard nothing from the Kepler team. Someone needs to light a fire under Mewhinney et al The fact that NASA can't get its act together to address this news is baffling. Trully baffling. I can understand dragging their feet when there is bad news, but when paradigm-shifting, awe-inspiring news like this starts to circulate around our planet, the agency's inability to address it makes me wonder if the agency trully understands what it is doing - and the impact it can have on they way we view the universe.

Keith's 4:52 pm EDT update: Finally - a response from the Kepler folks - via Twitter here: "@KeithCowing We're working on it! New Kepler blog contribution from Dimitar is on its way. Will tweet the moment it's ready." and here: "@NASAWatch Kepler blog contribution from Dimitar Sasselov is expected to be out today."

- Kepler Team Needs To Take PR 101, earlier post
- Kepler Co-Investigator Spills The Beans: Lots of Earth-like Planets, earlier post