Donald J. Trump, savior of Europe? – MarketWatch

If youve traveled around the Continent lately, you probably have a pretty good idea of how Europeans feel about Trump. And if you havent, all you need to do is look at a recent Gallup poll that shows the approval of U.S. leadership dropping from 44% at the end of Obamas presidency to a dismal 25% for Trumps first year.

However, according to Adam Triggs of the Brookings Institution, our European friends could very well be thanking the president by the time hes done.

Triggs admits its an unusual thought, considering some of the trade-war rhetoric being hurled around, but he wrote in a post that Europe has a chance to capitalize on stimulus in the U.S. with some much-needed spending of its own.

Trumps fiscal stimulus is no small thing, Triggs explained. The U.S. Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, and the decision of Congress to raise spending limits over the next two years, implies a significant easing of U.S. fiscal policy.

For the U.S., that sugar hit will boost the economy, at least in the short term, in Triggss view. While higher interest rates and a stronger dollar will ultimately provide some headwinds to U.S. growth, theyll only serve to give our trading partners a leg up.

The logic is straightforward: When a country undertakes stimulus alone, an appreciated exchange rate tends to offset some of the short-term benefits of stimulus, Triggs said. But when your trading partners are stimulating at the same time, much of this exchange-rate effect is neutralized. Combined with increased demand for your exports, this means a bigger bang for your stimulus buck.

The depths of the financial crisis in Europe may have passed, but Triggs pointed out that unemployment remains at eye-wateringly high levels in some areas Greece, Spain and Italy particularly among the younger generation.

So, he said, if ever there was a good time to bump up spending in Europe and put people back to work, now, thanks to Trumps policies, is that time.

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Donald J. Trump, savior of Europe? - MarketWatch

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