Leading people through the pandemic is clearly no easy task. But does the criticism currently directed at New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern reveal a major misstep on her part, or something deeper about the nature of leadership itself?

Ardern has previously won widespread praise for her COVID-19 response and crisis communication, topping Fortune magazines worlds greatest leaders list in 2021.

Focused on minimising harm to both lives and livelihoods, her pandemic leadership has comprised three main strands: reliance on expert advice, mobilising collective effort and cushioning the pandemics disruptive effects.

These built the trust needed to secure high levels of voluntary compliance for measures designed to limit the spread of the virus.

Then came the Delta outbreak in mid-August, which sees Auckland still under lockdown measures nearly eight weeks later. Despite the efforts of many, elimination proved elusive a daunting reality that Ardern and her cabinet colleagues appear to have accepted.

This shift by Ardern, who engages deeply with the scientific evidence, has confused and angered many, even those who normally support her.

With vaccination rates climbing, in early October, Ardern announced the beginning of a gradual transition away from the established zero COVID strategy in favour of suppression of inevitable outbreaks.

Read more: Three reasons why Jacinda Ardern's coronavirus response has been a masterclass in crisis leadership

This included a three-step roadmap to guide Auckland carefully towards reduced restrictions. What criteria will be used to trigger movement through those steps, however, have not been specified.

Both the strategic shift and the roadmaps ambiguity have become the source of heated debate. But beyond merely choosing sides, how can we make sense of Arderns leadership at this point?

The pandemic presents a particular type of problem for political leaders, described as wicked or adaptive by leadership experts Keith Grint and Ronald Heifetz, respectively.

Basically, wicked or adaptive problems have complex and contentious causes, generating equally complex and contentious responses.

Their wickedness isnt fundamentally a question of morality, although they do typically entail making values-based choices. Rather, it refers to how difficult they are to contend with. Poverty, the housing crisis and climate change are other good examples of these kinds of problems.

Wicked/adaptive problems dont have clear boundaries, nor are they static. They have multiple dynamic dimensions. Their effects typically spill out into many parts of our lives and organisations, creating confusion, harmful consequences and disruption to established routines.

To make matters worse, there simply arent tried and trusted solutions that can resolve or dissolve such problems. Instead, they require leaders to accustom people to uncomfortable and disruptive changes to established ways of thinking and acting.

Unsurprisingly, many leaders avoid facing up to such difficulties, requiring as it does the cobbling together of a range of imperfect responses to ever-changing circumstances. It requires constant engagement, mobilising people to help craft a way forward.

Read more: Anniversary of a landslide: new research reveals what really swung New Zealand's 2020 'COVID election'

Leaders cant and dont have all the answers to such problems. Whatever answers they do have likely need to keep changing as things unfold. The best possible scenario is what Grint calls a clumsy solution a patchwork of adaptive initiatives that blunt the problems worst effects.

Only genuinely transformative change can truly overcome these wicked or adaptive problems in the long run.

In the meantime, clumsy leadership will typically trigger conflict between leaders and citizens (or employees in a work setting), and among those people too. There will be blame, recrimination, avoidance, denial, grief, what ifs and if onlys, as people struggle to deal with the changes needed.

Indeed, all these very normal responses have characterised much of the commentary about the Ardern governments decision to change tack.

That criticism, however, doesnt mean she has failed in her leadership responsibilities. Instead, she has required the population to face up to an adaptive challenge. Its unavoidably contentious and painful.

Read more: Phased border reopening, faster vaccination, be ready for Delta: Jacinda Ardern lays out NZ's COVID roadmap

For all that we can debate whether different decisions could or should have been made, the difficulties involved in facing the new reality are unavoidable.

To help people navigate this, Ardern is seeking to regulate distress, as Heifetz recommends. She has repeatedly assured people a cautious approach remains in place and has appeared not to have been distracted by the criticism.

Instead, she has stayed focused on mobilising the individual and collective effort to follow the rules and get vaccinated.

Read more: The COVID-zero strategy may be past its use-by date, but New Zealand still has a vaccination advantage

Wicked/adaptive problems are not amenable to resolution by way of quick, easy or elegant answers. They arent fixed by recourse to command and control, although some top-down decisions are needed.

They entail ambiguity and uncertainty, a constant piecing together of efforts to outflank, mitigate or adapt, giving rise to inevitably imperfect or clumsy solutions.

Asking people to adjust to efforts to achieve the least-worst outcome possible from a range of unpalatable options may not be the easiest path to political popularity. But it is arguably what responsible leaders do.

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Why Jacinda Arderns clumsy leadership response to Delta could still be the right approach - The Conversation AU

If you are not vaccinated, there will be everyday things you will miss out on, the prime minister says.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says the framework will provide people with greater clarity moving forward. Photo: RNZ / Samuel Rillstone

A new Covid-19 response framework is being finalised and will be released on Friday, providing people with greater clarity, Jacinda Ardern said.

"It will become very clear to people that if you are not vaccinated there will be things that you miss out on, everyday things that you will miss out on," Ardern told Morning Report.

"It's about both rewarding people who have gone out and done the right thing but also keeping away people who are less safe."

She said by the time the framework is ready to move to, the government is confident vaccine certificates will be ready.

It's like an alert level system, she said.

"We've always said once we're vaccinated it will be different, so we need to therefore design what that looks like."

Ardern said the government is drawing some distinctions though, they don't want an environment where people can't access necessary goods and services to maintain their lives.

"We can't say someone can't get health services, medical needs, pharmacies, food."

The government is supporting providers who are providing incentives for people to get vaccinated, she said.

"Anything that they identify will work for their community has our backing."

Ardern said domestic travel is being looked at separately from the framework to be announced Friday, and work is being down to see if there is a way to safely allow movement.

"But that would have a number of checks around it - is there a way that we can use vaccine certificates but also acknowledge that even if you're vaccinated it is still possible for you to have asymptotic Covid."

The border is putting a lot of strain on Auckland the more time is it needed, she said.

"At the same time, the rest of New Zealand wants to remain... Covid free or be in the position to extinguish Covid cases as they arrive. So we've got to balance those two needs."

Epidemiologist Rod Jackson told Morning Report the government needs to go hard on those who just haven't yet got around to getting a vaccine - "With no jab, no job, no fun".

The second group of people who aren't vaccinated however, don't trust the system, he said.

"And for those we have to find the people that they trust.

"The only game in town is to buy time until we get everyone vaccinated."

The government has signalled a vaccination target will be part of the soon to be announced framework.

Jackson says if 95 percent of the population is vaccinated, there will be death, disease and hospitalisations for the last five percent.

"Those were the 5 percent who were the first to get Covid in Europe last year, those are where most of the deaths are, those are where most of the hospitalisations are...For the rest of us, we're all going to get Covid again.

He said people don't realise that.

"There's two ways to get vaccinated. You either get vaccinated by the virus, and that's brutal, one in 10 hospitalisations in this latest outbreak. If you get Covid after you've been vaccinated it will happen slowly because the vaccine is fantastic for dealing with severe disease but it only slows down infection."

Slowing down infection is the key problem a vaccinated population faces, he said.

"Because Covid spreads so rapidly, even if the vaccine has reduced your risk of going to hospital from one in 10 to one in 100. That is still one in 100 of a lot of people if Covid is spreading rapidly."

A flexible approach is needed, he said.

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Everyday activities won't be available to the unvaccinated - Jacinda Ardern - RNZ

New Zealand is making a four-fold increase in foreign aid spending on countries most vulnerable to climate change, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said on Monday.

The announcement comes in the run-up to a landmark UN climate conference in Glasgow.How much climate funding is New Zealand planning?

Ardern said Wellington would boost its climate aid budget to NZ$1.3 billion ($920 million; 790 million) over four years.

New Zealand will do its fair share in the global race to tackle climate change by providing $1.3 billion to assist lower-income countries to protect lives, livelihoods and infrastructure from the impacts of climate change, she said in a statement.

At least half of the funding will go to Pacific island nations as they tackle the climate emergency, the statement said.

We need to continue to step up our support for our Pacific family and neighbours who are on the front line of climate change and need our support most, Ardern said.

The prime minister said the money would help Wellington in supporting clean energy projects in developing nations.

She added that the investment would help communities withstand damaging storms and rising sea levels.

How does that compare with other nations?

Monitoring website Climate Action Tracker rates New Zealands existing climate aid budget as critically insufficient and the nations overall response to global warming as highly insufficient.

With the increased commitment from 2022-25, New Zealands per capita contribution to global climate finance would match that of Britains.

Climate Change Minister James Shaw said it was the duty of comparatively wealthy nations like New Zealand to help at-risk nations prepare for climate change.

Our history over the last 30 years has been woefully inadequate when it comes to the scale of the challenge, Shaw told Radio New Zealand.

What thats left us with now is only a few years remaining to dramatically reduce the greenhouse gases that we put into the atmosphere, he added.

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New Zealand increases climate aid ahead of UN summit - The Indian Express

Politics

15 Oct, 2021 04:00 PM4 minutes to read

Watch: Kiwis have smashed the government's 'Super Saturday' goal of 100,000 vaccine doses today - and Auckland should hit the 90 per cent first-dose target in the next five days.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern's office has been sent some heavily critical feedback on the Government's draft traffic light system, which is meant to replace alert levels when the population is highly vaccinated.

"Not fit for purpose" and "no consultation" were strong sentiments among the expert feedback for a new system that Ardern will reveal next week.

During a visit to Taranaki yesterday, she said the new system was about incorporating vaccination certificates into a framework of restrictions based on risk.

"How can we use vaccination as a way to give greater access to some of the things that have been high risk in the past?

"There has been consultation on it over the last couple of weeks."

That included a Zoom meeting on Thursday co-chaired by Professor Dame Juliet Gerrard, chief science adviser to the Prime Minister, and Professor Ian Town, chief science adviser at the Ministry of Health.

It included dozens of health experts including microbiologist Dr Siouxsie Wiles, developmental paediatrician Dr Jin Russell, GP Rawiri Jansen, Auckland University Associate Professor Collin Tukuitonga, Covid-19 modeller Professor Shaun Hendy, and epidemiologists Sir David Skegg, Professor Michael Baker, and Dr Rod Jackson.

The traffic light system aligns the level of risk to red, amber and green.

In the draft proposal, green is similar to level 1 settings but with mandatory vaccination requirements for large events - which Ardern has already said will be needed for summer festivals.

Amber is similar to level 2, where the virus is increasing in circulation and restrictions such as mandatory mask-wearing would be used. There would also potentially be a requirement for vaccinations at retail and hospitality businesses.

15 Oct, 2021 12:07 AMQuick Read

15 Oct, 2021 04:32 AMQuick Read

14 Oct, 2021 09:56 PMQuick Read

15 Oct, 2021 12:53 AMQuick Read

Ardern has said the Government is yet to decide on whether to make vaccinations mandatory for the hospitality sector.

Red is similar to level 2.5, with some limits on gatherings and possibly further vaccination requirements for businesses.

Several people familiar with the Zoom call told the Weekend Herald that the general feedback was that the new system wasn't fit for purpose, and its usefulness was for a time when enough of the population was fully vaccinated - which could be months away.

That is considered to be the only scenario when lockdown restrictions, which were notably absent in the red settings, would no longer be needed.

It would then be premature to reveal it to the public if it wasn't going to be implemented for some time, the Weekend Herald was told, and if it was going to come into force sooner, then that would be risky.

Concerns were also raised around how flexible the system would be, and why it would be better to move to a system than was less nuanced that the current one, and which was also already well understood.

There were also questions around who had developed it.

Level 3 and 4 settings were mooted as still being a necessary part of the toolbox, given the possibility that a new variant might emerge that was resistant to vaccines.

The latest data shows 83 per cent of the eligible population across the country with a single dose, and 62 per cent fully vaccinated (and for Mori, 41 per cent) - well below what those figures need to be to safely jettison lockdown restrictions.

Ardern has previously talked about the ability to avoid level 3 restrictions if 90-plus per cent of the population were fully vaccinated.

The Government is understood to have sought independent expert advice on the public health strategies that should be pursued for a highly vaccinated population.

Cabinet will discuss the traffic light system on Monday, including when the right time would be to transition to the new system, and what the triggers would be to move between the different settings.

The new threshold for lockdown-type restrictions will also be discussed, given the increasingly vaccinated population.

Gerrard, who posted a photo of the Zoom meeting on Twitter, said that minutes for the meeting would be publicly available within a month.

More:

Covid 19 Delta outbreak: Scathing feedback from experts on Jacinda Ardern's traffic light system to replace alert levels - New Zealand Herald

ANALYSIS: This week, and probably for a few more after, we will see the last gasp of alert level decisions.

Hopefully by the end of the first quarter of next year, the memory of alert levels will be receding from sight as life gets back to more normal and there is a general acceptance of Covid-19 in the community.

However, on Monday afternoon at 4pm there will be decisions being made on Auckland, Northland and Waikato.

Northland seems a no-brainer. It looks like it should go back to alert level 2. There haven't been any extra cases pop up there for a few days.

Waikato, similarly, seems like a no-brainer except in the other direction. There were another four reported cases in Waikato on Sunday. Clearly Covid-19 is still floating around Waikato not least in the wastewater and not all the sources of it are known yet.

MONIQUE FORD/Stuff

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern in Lower Hutt on Saturday.

READ MORE:* Covid-19 Australia: Quarantine-free travel to NSW starts November 1 for double-jabbed* Covid-19: Australia on track for 90 per cent vaccination rate* Covid-19: Pressure on Government for weeks ahead as Northland locks down and vaccine campaign takes centre stage* PM Jacinda Ardern warns lockdowns will continue without more vaccination

In a way, getting the case numbers down in Waikato is of more immediate importance to the Government than Auckland. Because of its relatively porous border, chances of the virus getting out once entrenched are greater than in Auckland.

That matters because the Government is still effectively running an elimination strategy outside of Auckland, while doing suppression inside, and it doesn't want to have to lock down other parts of the country while getting vaccination rates up.

In Auckland, the question facing the Government will be whether to move the city to the next step of fewer restrictions: this would involve the reopening of retail, public places such as zoos, libraries and museums, and increased limits to weddings and funerals of 25 people.

On the face of it, it seems highly unlikely that this will occur. Clearly Covid is in Auckland to stay and the trend line of cases is rising. But until full vaccination rates are higher, it is unlikely more restrictions will be eased.

MONIQUE FORD / STUFF

Music, dancing, food stalls and a visit from Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern brought crowds down to the youth-led vaccination festival 'Do it 4 the East' in Cannons Creek, Porirua.

The big vaxathon on Saturday clearly helped Auckland is now almost up at 90 per cent first doses, but it's the full course that is of the most public health interest.

According to the Ministry of Healths figures 85 per cent of the population nationally has had one jab of vaccine, while 65 per cent have had two doses. In Auckland, however, first doses are 89 per cent while second doses are at 71 per cent.

Second dose figures in Auckland are starting to really rise now, but it is unlikely to be enough for the Government to ease up immediately. It has consistently said that it wants everyone eligible to have the chance to get vaccinated this year. While clearly everyone has had the chance, thats a lot of people still waiting on their second jab.

For that reason, more liberalising in Auckland looks unlikely.

It is difficult seeing these sorts of alert level decisions last more than a few weeks, and the Government is expected to announce a raft of changes to how it manages Covid-19 this week. Monday will most likely focus on the alert levels, but the PM may give a taster of what is to come later in the week.

Behind closed doors the Government stresses that the plan will still, more or less, be what was broadly signalled in its Reconnecting New Zealand work in mid- August, just prior to the lockdown although Delta has sped it up dramatically.

On Friday, the Australian state of New South Wales announced that, come November 1, it would be allowing all fully vaccinated travellers to NSW be they residents, tourists, or anyone else to come to the state without quarantine or even self-isolation. (Scott Morrison and the Australian Government quickly scotched that suggestion for non-Australians for a bunch of pretty weak reasons, not least of which is the frenemy-style relationship between Morrison and new NSW premier and fellow Liberal Dominic Perrottet).

Quarantine-free travel to Australia from the South Island will now be restarted for the fully vaccinated.

But the point is, at an 80 per cent vaccination rate, NSW is only a few weeks ahead of New Zealand.

But NSW, with its population of 8-odd million has gone through its big Covid wave, it is now down to about 300 cases per day and falling. New Zealand's reopening or even further spread of Covid-19 in Auckland beforehand will take place with a far more vaccinated population than in NSW or Victoria at similar stages of their outbreaks.

But that wont give much succour to desperate business and residents of Auckland destined to be looking at the same four walls for another week or few. A firm plan of what will happen when, dished up this week, might.

Read the original post:

Covid 19: No change likely for Auckland, Waikato but alert levels now on borrowed time - Stuff.co.nz

Nine months out from the 2020 election, opinion polls suggested it would be a close race between Labour and National. But that all changed with the arrival of the global pandemic.

COVID came to dominate the policy and political agenda from March 2020, ensuring Labour focused its re-election campaign firmly on its pandemic response. As Jacinda Ardern said at the campaign launch, When people ask, is this a COVID election, my answer is yes, it is.

The result was resounding. On October 17, Labour won an unprecedented victory, forming the first single-party majority government of the MMP era. It was the largest ever swing to an incumbent in the history of New Zealand politics.

So what does this result tell us about electoral politics in the context of a global crisis, and the role of incumbency, leadership, trust?

When it comes to analysing an election result, changes in party vote or seats give us an overall picture. But to understand why the electorate votes the way it does we need to consider the choices made by individuals.

The New Zealand Election Study (NZES) allows us to look at a random sample of individuals drawn from the electoral roll, and to test some of the factors we know influence voting behaviour.

Read more: New Zealand's new parliament turns red: final 2020 election results at a glance

The NZES has been conducted after every general election since 1990. In 2020, we surveyed 3,731 participants whose views and votes provide us with a unique insight into the complex interplay of variables that might determine an election result.

Here we highlight some of the topline numbers from our analysis of the 2020 NZES to cast light on what led to the historical election outcome 12 months ago.

The data reveal that 2020 was indeed a COVID election. For instance, we asked people to say what they thought was the most important issue of the election. As our word cloud below shows, COVID was clearly the most mentioned issue, and ranked above many issues traditionally seen as important during election campaigns.

Moreover, the public overwhelmingly supported the governments response to COVID, with 84% of people approving or strongly approving, while only 6% disapproved.

Of those who approved or strongly approved of the response, 57% reported casting a vote for Labour (9% voted Green, 3% New Zealand First and 1% Mori Party), while only 19% voted for National.

The majority (50%) of people who disapproved of the governments COVID response voted for National, and a further 19% for ACT, while only 8% voted for Labour.

Nationals loss and Labours win sparked a number of speculative explanations. For example, Labours gains in provincial electorates were claimed to be a result of strategic voting by farmers anxious about Green Party policies and water reform.

Federated Farmers Mid-Canterbury president David Clark argued that plenty of farmers have voted Labour so they can govern alone rather than having a Labour-Greens government.

Read more: Labour's single-party majority is not a failure of MMP, it is a sign NZ's electoral system is working

But our analysis of the NZES data reveals only a small change in the farming vote between parties. A majority (57%) of those in farming occupations voted for National and 21% voted for Labour. These numbers contrast with 2017 when National received 67% of the farming vote and Labour just 8%.

On the other hand, ACTs share of the farming vote increased from 2% to 16%, while the NZ First vote collapsed from 13% to less than 1%.

While these observations are based on a very small sample size of farmers, and should be interpreted with caution, our findings indicate the combined National-ACT vote was relatively unchanged making the anti-Green argument a little far-fetched.

Looking at the responses of all voters in our study, we find that of those who switched from National in 2017 to Labour in 2020, 46% placed themselves at the centre of the political spectrum, compared with 25% of voters who voted for National in both the last two elections.

This suggests these centre voters may have always been open to switching from National to Labour, casting further doubt on the strategic voting claim.

Read more: Her cabinet appointed, Jacinda Ardern now leads one of the most powerful governments NZ has seen

The popularity of Jacinda Ardern and the lack of popularity of Judith Collins is also highly likely to have contributed to Labours success. Of our NZES respondents, 65% said they most wanted Ardern to be prime minister on election day, compared to only 17% supporting Collins (no one else received over 2% support).

When asked to rate leaders from 0 (strongly dislike) to 10 (strongly like), 33% of people gave Ardern 10, and 69% gave her a 7 or above. In contrast, only 22% of people gave Collins a 7 or above, and 23% gave her 0.

We found, unsurprisingly, that likeability and trust are highly correlated, but we also found trust in Ardern as leader was statistically significant in explaining the shift to Labour, even after controlling for how much people liked or disliked her, their prior vote, and their left-right positions.

This supports assessments from around the world that decisive and rapid responses to COVID-19, combined with clear communication, can lead to increased trust in political leaders.

Read more: Can New Zealand's most diverse ever cabinet improve representation of women and minorities in general?

We also know Labour won nearly half a million new voters compared to 2017. Where did this support come from? Around 16% of 2020 Labour voters reported voting for National in 2017, while 13% stated they did not vote in the previous election.

Of the new Labour voters, the majority (55.5%) were women and just over half (51%) were under the age of 40, with 33% Millennials and 18% Gen Z. When asked which party best represented their views, 58% chose Labour and just 11% chose National.

However, when asked if there was a party they usually felt close to, only 29% reported feeling close to Labour, while 53% did not feel close to any party.

Our NZES data clearly show the 2020 New Zealand general election can indeed be thought of as a COVID election. Support for the governments rapid public health and economic policy responses, and the popularity of Ardern, go a long way to explaining the outcome.

However, as the word cloud suggests, there are a number of policy issues that remain of concern to voters, including housing, health and the economy. These were issues that featured in 2017 and may continue to matter through to the 2023 election.

Our preliminary analysis, then, is a reminder that Labour cannot take its new voters for granted.

The rest is here:

Anniversary of a landslide: new research reveals what really swung New Zealand's 2020 'COVID election' - The Conversation AU

For 18 months, New Zealand has enjoyed the reputation as the little island that could.

The so-called "team of 5 million" has lived under the threatof strict and sharp lockdowns in exchange for the comfort of knowing it would not have to live with COVID-19 in the community.

And for a while, there was a sense of pride and unity over that approach.

However, things have now changed.

On Monday, New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said it was time the country transitioned away from the elimination strategy a huge departure from the approach much of the countryhad bought into a long time ago.

"Elimination was important because we didn't have vaccines.Now we do, so we can begin to change the way we do things," she said.

"We need to continue to contain and control the virus as much as possible while we make our transition from a place where we only use heavy restrictions to a place where we use vaccines and everyday public health measures.

"This is a change in approach we were always going to make over time. Our Delta outbreak has accelerated that transition."

One commentatorsaid the change "felt like a form of whiplash".

Another said it was a political and policy tipping point for the Prime Minister.

AP: Mark Baker

Ms Ardern was re-elected in a landslide victory in October, with Labor securing 50 per cent of the vote and enough seats to form government on its own.

It was a huge endorsement of the Prime Minister and her approach to managing the pandemic to that point.

"Her victory last year was almost entirely a function of the popularity of the elimination strategy, and also the success of it," professor of politics at Massey UniversityRichard Shawtold the ABC.

"People felt safe within fortress New Zealand.

"There's long been a sense in New Zealandthat if there are problems in the outside world, we can throw up the barriers and go bush, which is what we did last year, so Ardern was picking up people who would have been lifelong National Party voters, but who appreciated the strategy and the clarity of messaging,and now that's all gone."

Professor Shaw said the moveaway from elimination and the confusion around the current messaging was a political risk for Ms Ardern.

"It's too soon yet to know what kind of impact it would have on her personal popularity, or the government in general, but it is quite a significant moment in contemporary New Zealand politics," he said.

"The risk plays out in various ways.

"The obvious risk is that the disease gets out of control and all of the goodwill that Ardern and her government have accrued over the last 18 months will very rapidly dribble away into the sand."

Reuters:Fiona Goodall

Despite the popularity of Ms Ardern's initial approach, New Zealand has not been immune to anti-lockdown sentiment and protests.

There have also been calls from New Zealanders stranded overseas and from businesses that rely on seasonal workersfor the borders to open.

Recently, former prime minister and National Party leader Sir John Key penned an opinion piece calling for a new strategy, one that would see the "smug hermit kingdom" of New Zealandrejoin the global community.

"Some people might like to continue the North Korean option. I am not one of them," he wrote.

The most recent outbreak, which began in August, kept Auckland residents under alert level 4 restrictions for five weeks.

These are some of the strictest lockdown conditions in the world, prohibiting takeaway food and coffee, and closing all businesses not considered essential effectively placing everyone under quarantine conditions.

For the country's most populous city, it wasa serious blow to the economy and one that has not let up.

Auckland then moved to alert level 3. Thecity is now under settings that sit somewhere between level 3 and level 2, but the number of cases is still increasing, and the infections arebeing found outside of Auckland.

The Waikato region is under alert level 3 restrictions.

Supplied:General Council of the Samoan Assemblies of God in New Zealand

In August, just one case of COVID-19, which had not yet been confirmed as the Delta variant, plunged the whole of the country into a level 4 lockdown.

Yesterday, there were 29 new cases of community transmission, while no regions of the country were under the strictest lockdown.

And today, that number climbed again, with another 44 cases of COVID-19 found in the community.

"For many New Zealanders, the reality of needing to shift from a strict elimination strategy to a differently calibrated strategy due to the change in the nature of the virus is going to take some time to adapt to because we've had 18 months of one story, which is, 'We can eliminate it,'" Professor Shaw said.

Maori and Pacific people have lower rates of vaccination and higher rates of health complications. Pacific people representednearly 60 per cent of all cases COVID-19 in the August outbreak.

Auckland councillor and Samoan community representative Efeso Collins said his community was not ready to move away from the elimination strategy.

"We're worried. There is still a high level of weariness in South Auckland because we know the outbreaks have happened here, and because we present with co-morbidities, we know we're going to be the most affected in any outbreak," he said.

"As opposed to the other sides of Auckland, which are keen to get out of about and connect with people. It's a difficult balancing act when you've got essentially a tale of two cities."

Instagram: Efoso Collins

Mr Collins said he feared it would be vulnerable communities shouldering the increased risk that came with livingwith the virus.

"I think this is a real measure of our humanity," he said.

"We're pandering a little bit to the wealthier, middle class of Auckland.They haven't experienced the level of loss and anguish that we have in South Auckland so they don't know what we're going through."

Supplied: South Seas Healthcare

As the Prime Minister announced the transition towards the new approach, she pointed squarely to the reliance on vaccines.

"At the beginning of this outbreak, we said we were adopting an approach of elimination while we vaccinated that was the right choice and the only choice," she said.

Ms Ardern said at that time only 25 per cent of Aucklanders were fully vaccinated, but that figure was now up to 52 per cent.

Yesterday, the New Zealand Ministry of Health also announced 50 per cent of the entire country's eligible population was now fully vaccinated.

Experts called for clarity around the strategy going forward, saying immunity was not yet high enough to prevent widespread community transmission.

"The change in tack signalled by the government means it is really a matter of time before COVID finds its way to all corners of New Zealand," University of Canterbury COVID-19 modeller Michael Plank said.

"As we transition from an elimination to a suppression strategy, the government will have to tread a very narrow path to avoid overwhelming our hospitals.

"As vaccination rates increase, restrictions can be progressively eased, but if we relax too much, there is a risk the number of hospitalisations could start to spiral out of control."

One leading intensive care doctor has said New Zealand didnot have enough ICU beds for business as usual.

Reuters:Loren Elliott

While New Zealand enters a new phase of its pandemic response, Australia is planning to open its borders.

From late April until the end of July this year, so-called "green zone" flights flew between Australia and New Zealand in a travel bubble, with those on board walking off the plane and into the community, bypassing hotel quarantine.

But a month into the Delta outbreak in New South Wales, Ms Ardern said the risk had become too great and the bubble would be suspended.

A spokesperson from the New Zealand Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet said a review of the suspension would take place in mid-to-late November.

"This will give New Zealand time to ensure our vaccination rates climb higher," they said.

"Quarantine free travel was established on the basis that there was little to no community transmission occurring in both countries."

Currently, people can only enter New Zealand from Australia on "red zone" flights before heading into hotel quarantine. Soon, some of those travellers will face further conditions.

"Full vaccination will become a requirement for non-New Zealand citizens aged 17 and over arriving into the country from November 1," the department spokesperson said.

While New Zealanders lookfor clarity around what next, and Ms Ardern seeks to reassure them, Professor Shaw says there is also "an opportunity".

"One thing we know about Ardern is she is very, very good in moments of risk.She knows how to narrate a crisis point," he said.

"This is the highest-risk moment of the last 18 months for her, but I wouldn't underestimate her capacity to communicate her way through this and to take a significant wedge of public support with her."

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Why Jacinda Ardern giving up on eliminating COVID-19 is a political gamble for the popular PM - ABC News

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern on Monday acknowledged thatthe country cant completely get rid of COVID-19,The Associated Press reported.

Ardern made the remark while announcing plans to ease lockdown restrictions in Auckland, allowingresidents to be able to meet up with loved ones from one other household and go to the beach starting Tuesday. Early childhood education centers will also reopen.

For this outbreak, its clear that long periods of heavy restrictions has not got us to zero cases, Ardern said. But that is OK. Elimination was important because we didnt have vaccines. Now we do, so we can begin to change the way we do things.

Since the beginning of the global pandemic, New Zealand pushed a zero-tolerance approach to the coronavirus by implementing strict lockdowns and aggressive contact tracing.

While slowly returning back to normal life, the country experienced a new COVID-19 outbreak in August.

Ardern said that the seven-week lockdown in Auckland helped control the current situation, the AP reported.

The recent outbreak has led to more than 1,300 cases, with 29 new infections being detected on Monday.

Sixty-five percent of New Zealanders have received one dose of a coronavirus vaccine, with 40 percent of citizensnow fully vaccinated.Vaccination rates have slowed after initially rising in response to the current outbreak, the AP noted.

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New Zealand's Jacinda Ardern admits nation can't get rid of coronavirus | TheHill - The Hill

The Government's new suppression strategy risks overwhelming the health system if the virus gets into under-vaccinated communities or if overworked public health officials can't keep up, Marc Daalder reports.

ANALYSIS: The Government has called time on elimination, 18 months and four days after Ashley Bloomfield embraced the strategy at a select committee hearing held under level 4 lockdown conditions.

As she announced a roadmap for Auckland's path out of lockdown on Monday, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said Covid-19 cases would be present in the community but kept to low levels.

What I'm indicating is that in spite of not having reached zero, that doesn't mean that we are not able to successfully continue our work to keep people safe in the long-term and take an aggressive approach to Covid, she said.

Pool/Getty Images

On Monday, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced a three-step road map for Aucklands path out of lockdown.

READ MORE:* Covid 19: Elimination may be dead but Auckland's lockdown is very much alive - and lingering* Covid-19: Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern kills the elimination strategy, but the restrictions won't end * Auckland's long and winding Covid-19 road with no clear end in sight* Covid-19: Concern for vulnerable communities as Govt announces lockdown exit strategy

Vaccinations will help us. Our contact tracing will continue to play a role. We'll still isolate every case. And in the future, public health measures will still be part of the mix as well.

Experts say New Zealanders should prepare for the presence of Covid-19 in the community under the new approach, even if the Government is striving to keep cases down and the health system from being overwhelmed.

This relaxing of restrictions will see more spread and more Covid cases in the community over the coming weeks, Te Pnaha Matatini Covid-19 modeller Shaun Hendy said.

This isn't just the case in Auckland, either. Hendy's fellow modeller, University of Canterbury mathematics professor Michael Plank, said we should expect to see the virus outside of the city.

The Auckland boundary will remain in place for now. But if, as is likely, case numbers continue to grow, it will become progressively harder to keep the outbreak contained to Auckland, he said.

The rest of New Zealand should prepare for the inevitability of community transmission. Regions that experience outbreaks may need to be put under restrictions like those in Auckland.

Ricky Wilson/Stuff

Te Pnaha Matatini Covid-19 modeller Shaun Hendy. (File photo)

Abandoning elimination does not mean the Government will wave the white flag and surrender to the virus. Auckland is still at level 3 and the initial step in loosening restrictions will add relatively little risk of onward transmission.

Ardern was at pains to emphasise that the strategy won't look that different from elimination. We will still rely on contact tracing, testing, masking and other public health measures, as well as tougher restrictions like lockdowns while vaccination rates remain low, to keep transmission low.

But the mere fact that the end goal is different that the Government is now satisfied with low levels of community transmission rather than none at all raises new and potent risks.

Experts have previously said a suppression strategy like that adopted by the Government on Monday would see restrictions in place for weeks to months. University of Otago epidemiologist Michael Baker highlighted that again on Monday evening.

Step 1 is pretty much Level 3 and Steps 2 and 3 are versions of level 2, he said.

When could Auckland move to those Level 2-style restrictions?

You need to see that case numbers are not increasing. I don't think you could ever expect that we'd be moving out of Step 1 anytime soon. Just from what we know of the experience of Victoria and New South Wales and what we've seen here.

Auckland's exit strategy is now vaccination rates, with Ardern targeting 90 per cent of the eligible population double dosed. But only 84 per cent have had their first dose thus far. Even if the remaining 6 per cent (around 86,000 people) went out and got jabbed today, it would still be six weeks before their second dose and another two weeks before they're considered fully protected. Clearly, suppression means Auckland is in lockdown for the long haul.

In the meantime, the Government's goal is to keep transmission low enough that the health system isn't overwhelmed. While successful elimination looked like reaching zero cases and returning to the freedoms of level 1, successful suppression sets a much lower bar of ensuring our hospitals are not overflowing with Covid-19 patients although the consequences of failing to achieve that bar are much more serious with suppression than with elimination.

There are three major and interconnected risks to the Government's ability to keep the health system standing.

The first is the outbreak taking off in under-vaccinated populations. Schools are tentatively slated to reopen from October 18, but children under 12 aren't eligible to be vaccinated. While children pose relatively little threat to one another, they're more likely to be infected by their adult teachers and other school staff members. Currently, however, teachers aren't required to be vaccinated, masks aren't mandated for students in schools and New Zealand's schools have notoriously poor ventilation.

We need to immediately take steps to ensure that schools open in the safest way possible, Jin Russell, a developmental paediatrician at the University of Auckland, said.

One of the best ways we can protect children and re-open schools safely is to aim for 100 per cent of teachers and staff, and 100 per cent of eligible students, to be vaccinated. Overseas experience also shows that by implementing a suite of measures including improving ventilation, taking activities outside, masking, and other measures, schools can drive the risk of Covid-19 transmission to very low levels.

Children aren't the only under-vaccinated group, however. Mori and Pasifika vaccination rates have lagged behind those of the general population. In Auckland, fewer than a quarter of Mori were fully vaccinated by last Tuesday.

As of Sunday, nationwide, just 56.7 per cent of Mori and 73 per cent of Pasifika had received a first dose of vaccine, compared with 80.3 per cent of white New Zealanders.

Unvaccinated people are also likely to be clustered into the same communities, raising the risk of an outbreak. All of the 11 district and city council areas with the greatest proportion of Mori residents are also among the 15 least vaccinated council areas. More than a third of the eligible population in 11 council areas is unvaccinated and populations in nine of these 11 are more than 16 per cent Mori.

These communities are exposed to outbreaks of the virus. If suppression slips up in ptiki district for example, where the population is 44 per cent Mori and where 38.3 per cent of the eligible population is unvaccinated, the outcomes could be grievous.

Jin Russell/Supplied

Jin Russell, a developmental paediatrician at the University of Auckland. (File photo)

That brings up the second risk to the success of the suppression strategy: The capacity in our public health system to ensure suppression doesn't slip up.

New Zealand's public health officials have spent 18 months testing for Covid-19, tracing the contacts of new cases and planning for new outbreaks, all while chronically underfunded and unable to carry out their non-Covid-19-related public health work.

While they were already gearing up to manage a greater burden of new cases after the country reopens next year, an expected period of rest and preparation has now been overrun by the current Delta outbreak. It took the Government six days at the start of the outbreak to start re-tasking other public servants with contact tracing, at which stage less than two thirds of more than 20,000 known contacts had even received a phone call from tracers.

Despite four critical reviews urging the Government to resource the contact tracing system to be able to deal with the contacts of up to 1000 cases a day, the Ministry of Health never did so. Now, it is not impossible that we do see case numbers in the hundreds, even though that could overwhelm our current tracers.

New Zealand would struggle to maintain high system performance of contact tracing for a prolonged period with 100-200 cases per day, one such review, commissioned by the Government, warned after the February outbreak. And this didn't account for the transmissibility of the Delta variant which we are now dealing with.

If contact tracing collapses, then suppression at our current vaccination rates without harsh lockdowns becomes almost impossible. The response is now contingent on the most crucial part of our public health system which has been consistently ignored and under-resourced over the course of the pandemic.

The third risk is that we might not know our contact tracing has failed and the health system is threatened until it is too late.

The suppression strategy is the result of a March 2020 modelling paper from the Imperial College London, which found that mitigating the virus (flattening the curve) would see hundreds of thousands of deaths in places like the United Kingdom or United States because hospitals would be unable to care for all of the grievously ill patients.

Suppression involved stamping the virus to extremely low levels and then progressively loosening restrictions. Inevitably, the virus would resurge and when that renewed outbreak began to threaten the capacity of the health system, new restrictions would be imposed.

In the United Kingdom, the trigger for a new lockdown was to be 100 cases in ICU in a week. The UK's health system had significantly more capacity, but these new cases in ICU would be the result of infections that happened weeks ago. Even after locking down, the modelling showed, ICU admissions would continue to rise, perhaps doubling or tripling above the 100-patient threshold, but not overwhelming the hospital system.

A similar concept may be used with the new roadmap for Auckland, which is set to be reviewed on a weekly basis to discern how the virus situation has responded to each loosening of restrictions. The problem for New Zealand is that we have so little capacity in our health system that we will hit our trigger point with just a handful of ICU cases. By the time an obvious trend starts to emerge, it could be too late to stop ICU capacity from being exceeded.

We'll have to really look at the trend very carefully and if we see signs it's going up, we may have to revisit what we do with these levels or stages, Baker said.

That's backed up by the view of Te Pnaha Matatini researcher Dion O'Neale.

One of the factors that makes outbreaks so difficult to control is the fact that often by the time we know we are on a trajectory of sharply growing case numbers we may already be past the point where interventions like contact tracing or quarantine facilities are able to catch up, he said.

This is because there is a delay between when people become infected or infectious and when we are likely to become aware of them.

In other words, once cases in ICU start to rise, we must immediately respond.

That could even include strengthening the restrictions in place in Auckland or wherever else the virus ends up, both Baker and Plank said.

It will be crucial to remain adaptable and responsive to changes in the number of cases and the healthcare demand they will generate. It may yet be necessary to adjust or tighten restrictions to prevent cases spiralling out of control, Plank said.

The Australian state of Victoria has gone from around 20 cases per day to 1500 in just 6 weeks, and there are currently 96 Covid patients in ICU. This could happen here and it would put immense pressure on our hospitals.

Up until now, New Zealand has enjoyed the benefits of no widespread community transmission of Covid-19 something nearly unique in the world. While that may never have been sustainable in the long-term once the borders reopened, the opportunity to cleanly end elimination has been taken out of our hands. Instead, we are messily transitioning to a suppression strategy while vaccination rates remain too low to, on their own, prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed with Covid-19 patients.

When speaking to Newsroom about the Imperial College London paper in March 2020, Baker issued a prescient warning about the burden of the suppression strategy.

Its one thing to hear about it and see it happening at a distance. Its like watching a Netflix series from overseas, but actually, that will be us if we dont contain it, he said at the time.

Its a new way of living thats pretty foreign. Its pretty obvious that no one alive today has seen a pandemic like this.

After 18 months of keeping it at bay, that new way of living has now arrived on New Zealand's shores at last.

Originally posted here:

Covid-19: 'Prepare for the inevitability of community transmission' - Stuff.co.nz

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. Photo / Pool

OPINION: The Prime Minister's politics including her stance towards the Mongrel Mob and the Taliban can be baffling. Graham Adams reckons answers lie in her past as a Mormon.

Whether it is from politeness or a lack of curiosity, it is rare for journalists or commentators to dwell on Jacinda Ardern's religious history and how it might have shaped her politics.

When the Prime Minister is occasionally asked, she bats the question away with a stock answer: she rejected religion in her mid-20s and never looked back. As far as the public knows, the Prime Minister was brought up as a Mormon but renounced her faith in 2005 and that was that.

This view was encapsulated in her response to a question about whether she had smoked marijuana: "I was once a Mormon and then I wasn't that's how I'll put that."

Ardern has famously described her divorce from the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints as a result of the impossibility of reconciling its anti-homosexual stance with her loyalty to her own gay friends and flatmates.

"There are always going to be things you can't reconcile, but I could never reconcile what I saw as discrimination in a religion that was otherwise very focused on tolerance and kindness," she said.

Now, she says she is "agnostic" and doubts she will ever belong to an "organised religion" again. Nevertheless, she didn't leave the Church until she was in her mid-20s, which means that more than half of her 41 years on Earth was spent in its embrace.

Anyone familiar with the Jesuits' adage "Give me a child until the age of 7 and I will give you the man" will be deeply sceptical about her eagerness to downplay the role of religion in her approach to politics given she spent more than 20 years immersed in it.

Put on the spot during a leaders' debate before the general election last October, she looked uncomfortable when the MC asked both her and Judith Collins: "Will your faith play a role in governance?"

Answering first, Collins bizarrely referred twice to her "sense of humour" but she willingly admitted her faith played a role in her job: "It already does I've always been a liberal Anglican."

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Ardern gave a garbled answer: "I don't subscribe to any particular religion but I was raised in one. And I hope what people can see is that I respect people no matter their belief, no matter their upbringing because I had a similar start in my life so that has shaped the way I treat people of faith One of the reasons I am agnostic now is because I wanted to make sure that my religious beliefs didn't get in the way of anyone else practising what they choose to believe themselves."

The idea that her having personal religious beliefs might get in the way of anyone else's faith is nonsensical. However, she succeeded in dismissing the influence of religion on her politics, passing it off as little more than an early formative experience a "start in my life" which presumably was the point of her answer.

And stating that this experience gave her the ability to empathise with religious believers was presumably intended as a reference to her role in consoling the Muslim community after the mosque attacks in 2019 that catapulted her to international fame with the most celebrated images showing her wearing a hijab.

There are very obvious reasons, of course, why she might have wanted to be cagey about her religious background. After all, Mormons are associated in the popular imagination with magic glasses used to translate divine golden plates into the Book of Mormon, special underwear, and for older generations pairs of clean-cut, bicycle-riding missionaries who would arrive at your door to spread the Word from Salt Lake City, Utah, where the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints is based.

Yet, despite Ardern minimising her religious upbringing, the evidence that she is a pseudo-religious leader for a secular age is everywhere.

Her assertion last year that when she and Dr Ashley Bloomfield speak to media they are the "single source of truth" recalls an ex-cathedra pronouncement by the Pope.

Ardern may have rejected the formal observances of organised religion but she certainly hasn't shucked off the religious impulse to guide the faithful from the prime ministerial pulpit on matters of moral and ethical behaviour.

Her oft-repeated mantra of "Be kind!" recently updated to "Be kind, be courteous!" with regard to panic-buying is an exhortation that would be roundly jeered at if it were uttered by nearly any other New Zealand politician.

That role comes so naturally to her that she was obviously happy for the Ministry of Health to reflect her exhortatory stance. During lockdown last year, there were flashing signs above motorways and along suburban streets encouraging drivers to "Be kind!".

You don't have to look very far to find evidence of where the Prime Minister's inspiration comes from. If you Google "kindness" and "Mormon" you'll have eight million links at your fingertips.

The importance of kindness ranks highly among Mormon precepts. Even the message of the irreverent musical The Book of Mormon was summed up by one reviewer as "a belief in kindness reigns above being a part of any religion".

In fact, Mormon theology is so intrinsically kind it offers the chance of redemption to even the likes of Adolf Hitler and Vlad the Impaler if they are willing to accept Mormonism in the afterlife. And anyone who is baptised by Mormons even after death as Hitler and Vlad have been retrospectively can be released from Spirit Prison, which is the equivalent of Catholicism's Purgatory. If they accept Mormonism, they are eligible to enter God's blessed realm.

In such a theological framework, very few people are deemed to be inherently evil. The vast majority only need to be shown a better way.

We see shadows of this extremely magnanimous view of humanity repeatedly in Ardern's attempts to appeal to the better natures of groups as diverse as property investors and gang members.

In February, as the housing market was spiralling out of control, Ardern had a recommendation for property investors: "What we want them to think about is: 'How can you contribute to the productive economy in New Zealand?' By going into an overheated housing market, it makes it so much worse for others and you won't necessarily get the long-term benefits that we'd like you to get."

Only a politician detached from worldly reality would imagine this advice might help deter an investor from buying another dwelling in a sizzling market.

The same month, she was quizzed in Parliament by Act leader David Seymour about why the police programme to combat gangs was labelled "Operation Tauwhiro". He pointed out "tauwhiro" means "to tend or care for" and asked the Prime Minister if she actually believed "that violent criminals who sell P need to be tended and cared for".

Ardern replied: "If we want to make a difference to the young people who join gangs in New Zealand we have to demonstrate that there are alternatives for them that they can find a place to grow their potential without joining criminal organisations."

These responses reflect a belief in redemption that often appears hopelessly naive in a politician. Ardern sees the potential for good in everyone which is no doubt a large part of her appeal but the flipside is a reluctance to acknowledge the worst in people.

Consequently, she seemed surprised by public outrage at her personally approving $2.75 million for a drugs programme run by Mongrel Mob members.

Her unrealpolitik caught the eye of the Spectator, which mocked Ardern for offering one of the "Nine Worst Responses to Afghanistan's Fall" from around the world after the Taliban's victory:

"New Zealand's Prime Minister has 'implored' Taliban leaders to uphold human rights, telling a press conference: 'What we want to see is women and girls being able to access work and education' which she insightfully noted 'are things that have traditionally not been available to them where there has been governance by the Taliban.'"

The writer added: "The Taliban's response is as yet unknown."

As another wag put it: "Ardern asks water to stop being wet."

Another unmistakable sign of her otherworldliness can be detected in her dismissing opponents' criticisms as "politicking" or "playing politics" over issues such as Maori co-governance or the management of Covid. This is an extraordinary stance for a politician to take towards other politicians debating policy but Ardern positions herself as floating above the cut-and-thrust of politics.

Consequently, she is very keen not to be seen to be beset by common human frailties such as dishonesty, arrogance or vanity.

When asked during one of the leaders' debates in 2017, "Is it possible to survive in politics without lying?", she not only said it was but claimed she'd "never told a lie in politics".

Only someone determined to convince people she is preternaturally saintly would have so outrageously denied political reality and human nature. Bill English, a devout Catholic who wasn't nearly as ready to bend the truth out of shape as she was, couldn't in all honesty agree.

Humility is also essential to "brand Jacinda". In May last year, a memo from her office suggested ministers need not agree to be interviewed given how popular the Government's Covid measures had been. John Campbell, who interviewed the Prime Minister, said he at first thought it could be a sign of "arrogance" but decided it was more likely that she simply didn't have confidence in her ministers.

Ardern's reaction showed she was more sensitive to a suggestion she might be arrogant than a question about her ministers' competence. She made a point of addressing that issue even though Campbell had dismissed it.

"Arrogance is just, I hope, something people would see as not in my nature," she said plaintively.

She mostly keeps her vanity under wraps not least because she casts herself as a humble servant of the people but slip-ups are perhaps inevitable for a woman from Morrinsville who has been internationally canonised for her crisis management and lauded as "the world's most effective leader".

Addressing the UN in September 2019, she made the extraordinary admission that she saw herself carrying the nation's burdens on her shoulders single-handedly. In her speech she mentioned a young Muslim boy who asked her to keep him safe after the mosque massacres. "My fear is, that as a leader of a proudly independent nation, this is one thing I cannot achieve alone. Not anymore."

The fact she very capably handles the quotidian tasks of a prime minister such as explaining vaccination rollout figures while also wearing the mantle of a secular saint makes her an extremely difficult target for her political opponents to get a fix on.

If she is caught out, she often switches to what she probably imagines is "going high", as Michelle Obama put it, however absurd that might be.

When David Seymour asked Ardern in late June in Parliament if she ever thought she would be reduced to saying "Hey, we're doing better than Africa" in terms of vaccinations, she replied: "When it comes to global health and wellbeing in a global pandemic, how countries like those in Africa are performing is relevant to us. And, as a country who has a stake in the wellbeing of all nations, including developing ones, I imagine that's a consideration most New Zealanders would be proud to take."

In fact, the vast majority of New Zealanders would think her overwhelming responsibility is to advance the interests of those who pay her salary.

Despite her butter-wouldn't-melt image of kindness and care and concern for others, Ardern is a ruthless politician who is cunning as a fox and quick to change tack in response to public criticism.

She is also shameless at stage-managing her public appearances for maximum effect whether it is showcasing her Government's actions at her 1pm press conferences or being covered by a Polynesian ceremonial mat during an official apology for the dawn raids in a highly choreographed piece of political theatre.

The fact she is willing to exploit her status as a pseudo-religious leader was vividly apparent in the Labour manifesto published before last year's election. The cover photo, which was taken at the party's campaign launch at the Auckland Town Hall, shows Ardern in profile gazing towards the heavens while behind her in the choir stalls sits a sea of clapping supporters. A white light illuminates her face. The deliberate religious undertones are unmistakable.

How long the melding of a religious persona with that of a secular prime minister will preserve her position as the nation's most dominant politician is anyone's guess.

However, reaching the Promised Land can't be delayed forever. The poor will always be with us, as Jesus said, but no one would have imagined in 2017 when Ardern promised her "transformational" policies would wash away tears that by 2021 so many more would have joined their ranks.

Eventually her adherents no matter how fervently they believe in their leader's righteousness will come to see that the fabled destination will always remain out of reach. They are steadily drifting away as it becomes more and more apparent her Government is seriously incompetent in battling the scourges that afflict New Zealand including overburdened infrastructure, crippling house prices and children living in poverty.

While the most recent polls showed support moving to National and Act, the outbreak of Delta may have tipped polling figures more in her favour again, if only temporarily. Certainly, she will be hoping that the revival of her 1pm briefings on Covid from the "podium of truth" where she can reprise her role as New Zealand's saviour will reverse the decline.

However, it looks like it will be a much harder sell than last year. As Judith Collins said, echoing a widespread sentiment: "It is not enough for the Prime Minister to lock us in our homes and speak from the podium once a day. New Zealanders don't need sermons we need vaccines in arms right now."

First published by the Democracy Project.Graham Adams is a journalist, columnist and reviewer who has written for many of the country's media outlets including Metro, North & South, Noted, The Spinoff and Newsroom.

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Graham Adams: Is Jacinda Ardern the Messiah? Or just a very crafty politician? - New Zealand Herald

Humanity is at war with a virus. Jacinda Ardern, New Zealands Prime Minister and possibly the globes most successful Covid general, is this week leading another battle. Ardern placed the entire country into lockdown on Tuesday after the discovery of a single Delta variant infection in Auckland. Her goal is the same now as its been since the pandemic began - identify, isolate and eliminate Covid from day-to-day New Zealand life.

Ive been witnessing this firsthand from my wifes hometown of Ohope, in New Zealands Bay of Plenty, where weve lived since January after moving from California. Watching Ardern perform in daily press conferences this week I couldnt help thinking about Winston Churchill. I know, I know - older white guys always seem to think of Churchill. But loan me three more minutes of your time and you may glimpse a surprising future.

Comparing the two prime ministers fascinates me because, despite being almost unimaginably different people - Churchill was a round, aristocratic conservative with a deep belief in the British Empire while Ardern is a fresh-faced former youth socialist who still gets a packed lunch from her Mum - both have been very effective wartime leaders. And, perhaps strangely, their messages are ultimately very similar.

Churchills speeches used vivid imagery and waves of sound to tap into patriotism and an absolute refusal to quit. Ardern asks Kiwis to be kind and talks of a team of five million in a manner that manages to be both friendly and assertive. Their metaphors and styles reflect very different times and messengers, yet share the same core idea- togetherness and resilience will prevail.

But could these two leaders also share a less triumphant fate?

Just two months after leading Britain to victory over Nazi Germany, Churchill was swept out of office. His Conservative party lost the popular vote for the first time in four decades and suffered its worst vote swing since 1800. The decisive leader and inspiring communicator who helped save his country from an existential threat was gone. Why?

18th June 1945: William Waldorf Astor (1907 - 1966), later 3rd Viscount Astor, with his first wife, ... [+] Sarah Norton and a poster of Winston Churchill during the general election campaign, in which he stood as a Conservative candidate. (Photo by Evening Standard/Getty Images)

After the horror, trauma and destruction of the War, Britain was looking to the future. Its priorities were domestic and largely focused on creating a more equal and fair economy. Churchill had proven wildly ineffective in dealing with those problems in the 1920s and so he was sent packing.

New Zealands Covid war is far from over, but so far Arderns strategy has been successful- only 25 deaths and a better economic growth rate than the U.S., despite the lockdowns. Do New Zealanders recognize this?

Yes. My experience has been that most people here are supportive of her strategy and grateful for its success. I played in a local tennis tournament on Sunday and before the first match someone marched up to me and said, What a great day to be a Kiwi, eh mate!. Noticing my slight pause, he added, Wait, youre not Aussie are you?. When I confessed to being American, he said, Ah, sorry. ..bet youre happy to be here. I really was.

And yet. Over the last eight months as Ive quietly listened to (eavesdropped on?) conversations, read the press and chatted to people here I sense the potential for Ardern to experience a post-pandemic moment similar to Churchill. New Zealand has a lot going for it, but it has important problems too. These problems are being subordinated to the Covid war now, but they could very rapidly lead to dissatisfaction once that battle is seen as over.

Foremost among these is the least affordable housing market in the developed world. It baffles and frustrates Kiwis that a country with vast amounts of open land and massive timber resources should have a housing shortage, but it does. My sister-in-law Sharon Brettkelly, whose podcast The Detail is one of New Zealands most popular, has done a series of fascinating shows looking at both causes and possible solutions. My take - this problem will not be solved soon. Electorates and people being who they are, Id expect Ardern to take a lot of the blame for this, even though the problem has deep roots.

Then there is China, where New Zealand must navigate an exquisitely complicated relationship. China consumes about 30% of New Zealands exports and is the largest destination for its ultra-profitable SunGold kiwi fruit. But of course its not shy about exercising power. For example, Chinese growers ignored New Zealands patent on the SunGold varietal and may now be growing 10,000 acres of the fruit domestically. Does New Zealand challenge this and risk killing the goose that laid the golden kiwi fruit? Or does it look the other way? Similar quandaries exist in both timber and dairy markets. Layer in human rights concerns that matter a lot to Arderns progressive base and one can easily see her falling off this narrow and wobbly policy tightrope.

Finally, like all modern leaders, Ardern faces criticism about immigration. Her strict border controls have kept Covid out but created a huge issue for agricultural and construction industries that depend on labor from the Pacific Islands. Meanwhile, while in opposition Arderns party was outraged about billionaires like Peter Thiel purchasing citizenship, but last year it essentially sold residency to Google co-founder Larry Page. Storm in a tea cup perhaps, but values-centric politicians like Ardern can find these emotive issues difficult to shake.

Ardern has two years until she must face the electorate again. Can she use this time to win final victory against Covid and turn her skills to these other difficult battles? You can be sure she will run a much better campaign than Churchill in 1945 who, out of touch with his people, lamented at one point I have no message for them. But its not assured that in 2023 post-war New Zealand, like Britain two generations ago, wont look for a fresh start.

Original post:

Will Jacinda Ardern Suffer Churchills Fate Once The (Covid) War Is Over? - Forbes

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has come out and asked the Taliban to be nice to women during this period of upheaval.

Of course!

The Taliban have been brutalising women since their founding in 1994. Why didnt anyone think toaskthem to stop? We dont need armies or weapons just a timely press conference from a socialist dictator presiding over her prison state at the arse-end of the world.

The international community is calling on the Taliban to demonstrate a willingness to allow people to leave, that includes foreign nationals,said Ardern, giving the bearded desert terrorists her sternest glare.

Demonstrate that you are going to be an administration that takes into account the wellbeing of women and girls. The whole world will be watching. Its not a matter of trust, its going to be all about the actions, not the words.

Presumably the actions Ardern is referring to are the Taliban fighters going door-to-door, dragging families onto the street where they are massacred as a warning to others.

Religious zealots acting on the belief that God will reward them for violence and slavery are not interested in the distant bleating of a woman theyve never heard of. Ardern wouldnt last five minutes in Taliban-held Afghanistan, and yet the New Zealand leader appears to be under the impression that the world can do business with a pack of terrorists.

She has probably come to this conclusion because China is moving in to take control of the region.

Afghanistan, which is in a transitional process from a republic into a pre-Stone Age theocracy, is about to become the latest autonomous region under Xi Jinpings command.

Plenty of commentators in the West are cheering on Chinas ambition to occupy Afghanistan, mistakenly thinking that it will tie the empires resources up for decades as it did to Europe and America.

That is an unlikely conclusion.

China has many dubious brides, and the Taliban will make a great arranged marriage. Xi Jinping has endless pockets and zero interest in human rights.

Instead of trying to impose globally recognised morality on the Taliban, China will encourage their depravity so long as they keep the blood and explosions away from their infrastructure projects.

The world can expect China to adorn the Taliban with riches beyond their wildest dreams, leaving the world with a well-resourced religious terror group raining havoc across the globe and destabilising Western democracies while China rapes Afghanistans resources.

The region is home to one of the worlds largest Lithium deposits as well as rich veins of Cobalt, Copper, and Gold. So who knows? Maybe allowing the Taliban to slaughter their way to power is in service of the greater good Net-Zero UN Climate Change goals.

It is doubtful that this alliance will break down until China is finished taking what they want. Then, theyll leave the warring tribes of Islam to continue what theyve always done fight over the scraps of empire.

I would just again implore those who made these moves in recent days to acknowledge what the international community has called for human rights and the safety of their people,continued Ardern, who has obviously missed a lot of memos regarding the Taliban.What we want to see is women and girls being able to access work and education. These things have traditionally not been available to them where there has been governance by Taliban.

Its another one of Arderns detached-from-reality statements. Ardern has been known to don a headscarf to win brownie points with the international socialist diversity and inclusion movement, while actual women under oppressive Islamic rule burn theirs on camera in protest.

While it is safe to say that Ardern is a standard-issue idiot, the Biden administration in the US is not. I say administration because its tough to argue that Biden himself knows whats going on in his own mind, let alone the rest of the world.

The fall of Afghanistan is a favour to China, just as the lifting of sanctions on Tehran was a gift to Xi Jinpings Belt and Road oil pipelines.

Officially, the Talibans allies have included China, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and a scattering of the stans. Many of these also happen to be signatories to Chinas dangerous Shanghai Cooperation Organisation pact of non-interference.

If there is a global conflict on the horizon, a well-armed force of unscrupulous murders with no interest in the rules of engagement would be invaluable to China.

While we watch thousands ofciviliansrush at military jets, desperate to escape the rise of a religious dictatorship, it would be prudent to remember that this is bigger than one nation.

The United Nations is of no use. Their votes were bought over the last decade by Chinas debt-trap diplomacy flipping leaders from Africa to the Pacific. The West might have set it up to prevent socialist dictators from pursuing dreams of global power, but it has become a tool to silence dissent against exactly that goal.

Perhaps Ardern imagines that if she says all the right things, the new world order will give her a little throne to sit on?

A trip to meet the new Taliban administration in person would clear up any confusion she has over their adherence to woke ideology.

Alexandra Marshall is an independent writer. If you would like to support her work, shout her a coffee over atKo-Fi.

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Jacinda Ardern asks the Taliban to be 'nice' to women - The Spectator Australia

"It's going all over the place," said another. "It obviously sucks but we're in level 4 - I think that's the right thing to do."

Kilbirnie's Asian Food Specialist and Pak'nSave are also on the list, plus Air New Zealand flight NZ443 from Auckland to Wellington on Thursday afternoon.

Delta has got people on edge, but it's not too scary for Mayor Andy Foster, who's holding his breath.

"So far it's not too bad, but obviously time is going to tell," he said.

At least one of the positive cases travelled from Auckland to Wellington in a private car. They stopped four times along the way - in Tokoroa, Waiouru's service station and public toilets, and Bulls.

Contact tracers have their work cut out for them.

"The majority of those contacts are located in the Auckland and Waikato regions, with small proportion in other areas of the rest of North Island and South Island," said Director of Public Health Dr Caroline McElnay.

The Director-General of Health was alerted to the first Wellington cases before 9am on Friday, but there were no locations of interest on the Ministry of Health website until after 6pm that night.

"It's been very frustrating waiting for these additional locations to be made public," says Mayor Foster.

But Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says getting those locations of interest can be "iterative", and says it's a balancing act of putting out information accurately and quickly.

One of the locations is Countdown in Johnsonville, where last night shoppers were told to leave immediately so it could close for a deep clean.

"We were told to drop what we had and start walking out, and yeah, I was in a bit of a shock afterwards," said shopper Daniel Borrie.

Johnsonville's 1841 bar is another location of interest.

"A 400-gram sirloin [steak] and a beer for $25 has proven too much of a lure for some people - here we are," said owner Jono.

Testing sites were busy on Saturday, as people scrambled to get swabbed in the hopes they can wave goodbye to the virus in this region soon.

Queues were under control though as more pop-up testing centres were set up, including at Te Papa, Sky Stadium and in Hataitai.

Read more:

COVID-19: Jacinda Ardern defends pace locations of interest are released to public after Wellington Mayor criticism - Newshub

An RNZAF Hercules at Whenuapai Airbase prepared for a mercy flight to Afghanistan. Photo / Michael Craig

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern warns a mercy dash to Kabul to rescue New Zealanders and Afghan allies might not be able to evacuate everyone they want to.

It comes as the situation in the Afghanistan capital worsens, just days after the Taliban reclaimed control of the country after a 20-year war.

"I am concerned that because of the situation on the ground, that we do need to start working on what the next stage will be, because it does not look like we're going to get everyone out that we want to get out," Ardern said on Saturday.

"There is a certain window everyone is using, to use the secure space available at Kabul airport, but it is an entirely separate issue people's ability to connect safely with the airport."

On Friday it was confirmed the first New Zealanders trapped in Afghanistan since the Taliban dramatically took power have been whisked out of the country on a mercy dash.

American soldiers and other Nato allies are in control of security inside the airport.

But with the Taliban controlling checkpoints in and out of Kabul airport, access has been "extremely difficult", the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade acknowledges.

As disturbing images continue to come in from outside Kabul airport, where thousands of desperate Afghans have been trying to flocking to since the Taliban took control of the war-torn country on Sunday, the New Zealand Government made the urgent decision to send help.

Officials have been contacting individuals stuck in Afghanistan and making arrangements to try to get them out.

A Royal New Zealand Air Force (RNZAF) C-130 Hercules aircraft flew out of RNZAF Base Auckland Thursday morning on a mercy dash to Kabul to rescue New Zealanders, interpreters, and others who worked with Kiwi troops fighting the Taliban.

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MFAT says it is aware of 161 New Zealanders and their families in Afghanistan who are eligible to enter New Zealand, "many of whom we are providing consular support".

Staff are also assisting a small number of people who the Government has determined as having worked alongside NZDF, including interpreters, and those who materially assisted in the Operation Burnham inquiry and on police and aid missions.

Ardern said on Saturday New Zealand was working with its partners who were assisting the New Zealand effort now, and New Zealand staff would assist others once they arrived.

"I don't believe we arrived too late. It is an international effort, not just uplifting our people. We are working closely together to pick up one another's citizens and Afghani nationals."

According to the United Nations' refugee agency, about 250,000 Afghans have been forced to flee their homes since late May, most of them women and children.

Both Canada and the United Kingdom have pledged to take in 20,000 Afghan refugees, but Ardern said New Zealand would not yet be making a decision on that.

New Zealand was looking to further increase its refugee quota, but it was too soon to say what the Afghani makeup would be, she said.

"This will be an area where there will be a large number of refugees in the future and that is something we will work through."

Per head of population, New Zealand has one of the lowest rates of refugee acceptance in the world even after the current Government increased the annual refugee quota by 500.

It accepts 1500 refugees a year - or about 0.3 refugees per 1000 people. This ranks New Zealand 95th in the world.

Similar-sized countries like Norway and Ireland accept 11.29 and 1.22 refugees per 1000 residents, ranking them 15th and 69th respectively.

National Party foreign affairs spokesman Gerry Brownlee said it was a "chaotic situation" and not fair to say if anybody should have acted sooner.

"Intelligence clearly was that Kabul would not fall and there would be time for an arrangement with the Taliban.

"It is a horrible situation. I do not think we are able to say anything should have been done sooner, it is just a mess."

On refugees, Brownlee said it would be "some time" before agencies were able to figure out where Afghan people would fall in the international refugee programme.

There were already about 20 million people displaced around the world.

"If you just go to the latest hotspot then you are leaving out others who have been in that situation longer."

More here:

Fall of Afghanistan: Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says NZ unlikely to rescue 'everyone we want to' - New Zealand Herald

The whole of New Zealand will be plunged into a three-day lockdown from Wednesday after one case of COVID-19 was detected in Auckland.The largest city in New Zealand and the coastal town of Coromandel, where the case was found, will be placed under lockdown for an extended seven days.

The drastic response comes despite it being the first positive case of coronavirus in the community since February.

Ms Ardern will close schools, businesses and vaccination centres, with only essential shops being allowed to open.

GB News presenter Dan Wootton has condemned the decision and accused Ms Ardern of adopting a strategy of Zero Covid fantasy.

The New Zealander tweeted: New Zealand has just been plunged into a nationwide lockdown with all vaccinations cancelled because of one Covid case.

Thats right, ONE case of a virus we all know we have to learn to live with.

Jacinda Arderns Zero Covid fantasy is nothing short of a never ending nightmare.

Political commentator and senior UK parliamentary assistant, Bella Wallersteiner, urged the people of New Zealand to reject the draconian measures.

She tweeted: All of New Zealand is going into a lockdown because of ONE Covid case Sanctimonious Jacinda Ardern has lost the plot.

Zero Covid is an authoritarian fantasy. If lockdown were the answer, Covid would have been eliminated 17 months ago.

New Zealanders should resist this madness!

Meanwhile, another disgruntled user on the platform simply wrote: Confirmation she completely lost the plot.

New Zealand's Ardern locks down nation over single COVID-19 case. One. Single. Case. Lockdown.

READ MORE:Brexit LIVE: Boris handed six-point blueprint by expert

"While we know that Delta is a more dangerous enemy to combat, the same actions that overcome the virus last year can be applied to beat it again."

Restrictions in New Zealand come into force at level 4 the highest level in the country.

Ms Ardern added: We have made decisions on the basis that it is better to start high and go down levels rather than start too low, not contain the virus and see it move quickly.

"We've seen overseas, particularly in Sydney, unnecessary trips outdoors have spread the virus and communities have not been able to get on top of it.

So I ask New Zealanders to please follow the rules to the letter."

New Zealand has reported around 2,500 confirmed cases of coronavirus and 26 related deaths since the start of the global Covid crisis.

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Jacinda Ardern fury as NZ in lockdown after ONE Covid case: 'Never-ending nightmare' - Daily Express

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced on Wednesday compulsory mask use for New Zealanders aged 12 and over while visiting essential services currently open during alert level 4 like supermarkets, pharmacies and service stations.

But some confusion has reigned over whether we should be donning masks while exercising outdoors on walks and runs, especially if practising social distancing from others.

Now we know: You don't have to wear a face mask during strenuous outdoor exercise, but you must practice physical distancing of at least 2m from others during these times.

In Thursday's press conference, Ardern and Director General of Health Ashley Bloomfield addressed the uncertainty.

"We have not mandated mask use for exercise outdoors in level 4 - our general advice is when you go out, wear a mask," said Ardern.

"But we also want to be practical about [it]... someone, for instance, may be engaging in a very strenuous run where wearing a mask might become difficult - I couldn't speak to personal experience [on that]."

Ardern said in "those circumstances" practising "good, decent social distancing" is a must.

"We know from other countries with Delta that just walking past someone is a risk," she said.

"So generally when you leave the house, wear a mask...but we will be practical there."

Bloomfield pointed to the recent investigation into a case of COVID-19 transmission at Auckland's Jet Park quarantine facility, which was likely caused by room doors being opened simultaneously for just seconds at the same time.

"So we know it can be a very transient exposure," he added.

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Should we be wearing masks while exercising? Jacinda Ardern, Ashley Bloomfield respond to confusion - Newshub

WELLINGTON, NEW ZEALAND - Cheryl Simpson was supposed to be celebrating her 60th birthday over lunch with friends but instead found herself confined to her Auckland home.

The discovery of a single local COVID-19 case in New Zealand was enough for the government to put the entire country into strict lockdown this past week. While others might see that as draconian, New Zealanders generally support such measures because they worked so well in the past.

"I'm happy to go into lockdown, even though I don't like it," said Simpson, owner of a day care center for dogs that is now closed because of the precautions. She said she wants the country to crush the latest outbreak: "I'd like to knock the bloody thing on the head."

Elsewhere around the Pacific, though, Japan is resisting such measures in the face of a record-breaking surge, instead emphasizing its accelerating vaccine program. And Australia has fallen somewhere in the middle.

All three countries got through the first year of the pandemic in relatively good shape but are now taking diverging paths in dealing with outbreaks of the delta variant, the highly contagious form that has contributed to a growing sense that the coronavirus cannot be stamped out, just managed.

Professor Michael Baker, an epidemiologist at New Zealand's University of Otago, said countries around the world are struggling to adapt to the latest threat: "With the delta variant, the old rules just don't work."

The differing emphasis on lockdowns versus vaccines and how effective such strategies prove to be in beating back the delta variant could have far-reaching consequences for the three countries' economies and the health of their citizens.

Japan has never imposed lockdowns against the coronavirus. The public is wary of government overreach after the country's fascist period before and during World War II, and Japan's postwar constitution lays out strict protections for civil liberties.

Before the delta variant, the country managed to keep a lid on coronavirus outbreaks in part because many people in Japan were already used to wearing surgical masks for protection from spring allergies or when they caught colds.

Now, almost everyone on public transportation wears a mask during commuting hours. But late at night, people tend to uncover in restaurants and bars, which has allowed the variant to spread. Hosting the Tokyo Olympic Games didn't help either.

While strict protocols kept infections inside the games to a minimum, experts such as Dr. Shigeru Omi, a key medical adviser to the government, say the Olympics created a festive air that led people in Japan to lower their guard.

New cases in Japan have this month leaped to 25,000 each day, more than triple the highest previous peak. Omi considers that a disaster.

Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga on Friday expanded and extended a state of emergency covering Tokyo and other areas until at least mid-September, though most of the restrictions aren't legally enforceable.

Many governors are urging the prime minister to consider much tougher restrictions. But Suga said lockdowns have been flouted around the world, and vaccines are "the way to go."

Daily vaccinations in Japan increased tenfold from May to June as thousands of worksites and colleges began offering shots, but a slow start has left the nation playing catch-up. Only about 40% of people are fully vaccinated.

In Australia, a delta outbreak hit Sydney in June, after an unvaccinated limousine driver became infected while transporting a U.S. cargo air crew from the Sydney Airport. State authorities hesitated for 10 days before imposing lockdown measures across Sydney that have now dragged on for two months.

Early in the pandemic, Australia's federal government imposed just one nationwide lockdown. Now, amid the delta outbreak, it is pursuing a strategy it calls aggressive suppression including strict controls on Australians leaving the country and foreigners entering but is essentially letting state leaders call the shots.

New infections in Sydney have climbed from just a few each week before the latest outbreak to more than 800 a day.

"It's not possible to eliminate it completely. We have to learn to live with it," Gladys Berejiklian, premier of Sydney's New South Wales state, said in what many interpreted as a significant retreat from the determination state leaders have previously shown to crush outbreaks entirely.

"That is why we have a dual strategy in New South Wales," Berejiklian said. "Get those case numbers down, vaccination rates up. We have to achieve bothin order forus to live freely into the future."

The outbreak in Sydney has spilled over into the capital, Canberra, which has also gone into lockdown. Government worker Matina Carbone wore a mask while shopping on Friday.

"I don't know that anyone's ever going to really beat delta," she said. "I think we just have to try and increase our rates of vaccinations and slowly open things up when we think it's safe to do so."

But Australia lags far behind even Japan in getting people inoculated, with just 23% of people fully vaccinated.

Last year, soon after the pandemic first hit, neighboring New Zealand imposed a strict, nationwide lockdown and closed its border to non-residents. That wiped out the virus completely. The country of 5 millionhasbeen able to vanquish each outbreak since, recording just 26 virus deaths.

It went six months without a single locally spread case, allowing people to go about their daily lives much as they had before the pandemic.

But this month, the Sydney outbreak spread to New Zealand, carried by a returning traveler.

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern promptly imposed the strictest form of lockdown.

By Sunday, the number of locally spread cases in New Zealand had grown to 72, and the virus had reached the capital, Wellington. Officials raced to track 10,000 more people who might have been exposed.

Ardern has been steadfast.

"We have been here before. We know the elimination strategy works. Cases rise, and then they fall, until we have none," she said. "It's tried and true. We just need to stick it out."

Baker, the epidemiologist, said he believes it is still possible for New Zealand to wipe out the virus again by pursuing the "burning ember" approach of taking drastic measures to stamp out the first sign of an outbreak.

That remains to be seen.

New Zealand doesn't have much of a Plan B. A recent report by expert advisers to the government noted the nation has comparatively few intensive care hospital beds and said an outbreak could quickly overwhelm the health system.

And New Zealand has been the slowest developed nation to put shots in arms, with just 20% of people fully vaccinated.

Excerpt from:

Lockdowns or Vaccines? 3 Pacific Nations Try Diverging Paths - VOA Asia