Futurist to Give Winthrop Rockefeller Distinguished Lecture at U of A – University of Arkansas Newswire

Photo Submitted

Sheryl Connelly.

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. Sheryl Connelly, the in-house futurist at Ford Motor Company, will deliver the Winthrop Rockefeller Distinguished Lecture at the University of Arkansas at 7p.m. Friday, March 3 in the Faulkner Performing Arts Center.

The event is free and open to the public; free tickets are available at the door only, and seating is limited.

Connelly is known for her ability to recognize consumer and lifestyle trends, identifying changes in customer attitudes and behavioral patterns that directly impact business strategy.

She was twice named one of the "100 Most Creative People in Business," by Fast Company and was listed among TechWeeks "Top 100 Innovators."

She will speak on how developing a futurist mindset and big picture perspective can help business innovate and remain relevant in a constantly evolving world.

This event is co-sponsored by the University of Arkansas Distinguished Lectures Committee, Office of Student Activities, and the Division of Student Affairs.

The Winthrop Rockefeller Distinguished Lectures program was established in 1972 by friends of Gov. Winthrop Rockefeller. It assists faculty at five campuses of the University of Arkansas System in obtaining outstanding visiting lecturers to communicate ideas that stimulate public discussion, intellectual debate and cultural advancement. Past speakers in the series at the Fayetteville campus include Jonathan Kozol, W.S. Merwin, Billy Collins, Isabel Allende, Buzz Aldrin, Howard Zinn, Daniel Janzen, Lee Lynd, and Rigoberta Menchu.

About the University of Arkansas: The University of Arkansas provides an internationally competitive education for undergraduate and graduate students in more than 200 academic programs. The university contributes new knowledge, economic development, basic and applied research, and creative activity while also providing service to academic and professional disciplines. The Carnegie Foundation classifies the University of Arkansas among only 2 percent of universities in America that have the highest level of research activity. U.S. News & World Report ranks the University of Arkansas among its top American public research universities. Founded in 1871, the University of Arkansas comprises 10 colleges and schools and maintains a low student-to-faculty ratio that promotes personal attention and close mentoring.

Editor-selected comments will be published below. No abusive material, personal attacks, profanity, spam or material of a similar nature will be considered for publication.

Read the original post:

Futurist to Give Winthrop Rockefeller Distinguished Lecture at U of A - University of Arkansas Newswire

The Futurist: The right mindset for digital marketing – Marketing Interactive

Advertising and marketing have been consistently evolving, innovating and improving. New ideas, strategies, tools and choices of media are consistently being bloomed at a rapid pace especially when it comes to digital. Gone are the days where mere impressions or social media likes determine the very success of a digital campaign. In other words, popularity and awareness does not translate to revenue actual conversion does.

Very often, digital has been misperceived as an entirely new platform that generates magical instant results and is much superior compared with traditional media (thats up for debate). Many marketers neglected marketing fundamentals entirely by adopting irrelevant digital trends and clichs, just because competitors and other brands seemed successful doing it. At the end of the day, digital is just another media, but a rather modern and advanced one which consists of tools that traditional media would like to have but it is still media.

By neglecting marketing fundamentals, along with the core value of what their respective brand represents, mimicking winning trends just to drive unprofi table responses will only dilute the overall brand experience in the long run and obviously, it will only contribute to low sales conversion rates. Instead, starting off with the right mindset is a great start to realise actual goals and identify specifi c responsibility for each digital media to refl ect the overall integrated marketing mix.

Regardless of the traditional push strategy or search marketings direct response pull strategy, each media must be pathed to be consistent and seamless across the entire consumer journey. The biggest mistake would be implementing standalone digital campaigns that are not consistent with offl ine campaigns, just to target audiences within the digital market share. This is a misconception that the digital target audiences much differs with the offline audiences. There are over 21 million internet users in Malaysia, 81% of which access the internet via smartphones daily these are the very same audiences that access both offl ine and online media. In other words, they are the same group of people!

We all call it the digital era, but I call it the transparent era. In digital, every possible customer interaction, response and conversion are well recorded. For internet marketing agencies like us? There is nowhere to hide data and fi gures will never lie. With the adoption of a data-driven focus, it enhances marketers commitment in delivering fi gures-based performances which translates to tangible results revenue.

From a performance marketing point of view, marketers that are able to identify actual cost per-lead (CPL) and cost-per-acquisition (CPA) have the edge to signifi cantly reduce marketing costs and realigned investments into profi table marketing efforts conversion optimisation (CRO). The right critical marketing decisions will result in effi ciency and effectiveness, and it will subside the overall dependency of cost reductions in other internal departments manufacturing, R&D, HR, logistics, etc. In a holistic sense, it will greatly position the importance and impact of marketing.

As we progress towards 2017, we tend to hunger for the latest digital offerings to stay competitive, and in the hope that implementing new innovations will bring drastic improvements. With such a constant shift of digital objectives, are we really meeting our goals? Its best to take a wider view of past campaigns and optimise it to its fullest potential.

Digital rarely does mistakes, but humans do who knows what we have missed? After all, digital is not a sprint, its an effort-driven marathon just like traditional marketing.

The author of this article is Joseph Ting, CEO, Locus-T Online.

See original here:

The Futurist: The right mindset for digital marketing - Marketing Interactive

Trend analyst and futurist to share industry predictions – Queensland Country Life

A TREND analyst and futurist is headed to Toowoomba to speak at a national conference and share his predictions for the future of the region.

Principal of McCrindle Research, Mark McCrindle, has appeared widely on television shows as a media commentator, thought leader and social researcher.

Our approach is to use demographic modelling and data in an area to predict changes from national down to local levels, Mr McCrindle said.

As the workforce ages and the next generation transitions, Gen Y and Gen Z will comprise more than half of the workforce.

Mr McCrindle is one of the speakers at the three-day national Toowoomba Transport and Logistics Symposium where road, rail and air freight capabilities will be highlighted.

The event, hosted by Toowoomba and Surat Basin Enterprise for the second time will see speakers from across Australia assess the challenges and opportunities ahead.

It will be held from February 27 to March 3.

Mr McCrindle said a growing demand for logistics solutions in the region made it ideal to develop as a key infrastructure hub thanks to ambitious projects like the Toowoomba Enterprise Hub.

The TSBE Development Status Report highlights $13billion of investment spend in the region, a strong indicator of future success across industry.

What will drive the logistics and freight industries in the Darling Downs and wider region is demand from population growth as well as the infrastructure development, he said.

The next round of data from the Census is due this year and will absolutely give Australia a sense of where its going. Its the densification of cities and new logistical challenges that are driving opportunity.

Mr McCrindle sighted Toowoomba as one of the lifestyle cities and hub for industry and innovation thanks to its location and connectivity.

The density of capital cities has hit a tipping point where Aussies are looking for alternatives and Toowoomba offers that, he said.

Mr McCrindle said the region was re-inventing itself after the construction phase of mining moved to the operational phase across the Surat Basin, with agriculture pushing the need for freight services and pathways.

The Toowoomba region has the supply-chain businesses and opportunities to value-add to existing industry as well as innovation thanks to the training facilities and university.

Speakers from road, rail and air will share the podium at the symposium to offer advice and industry information for 2017.

Read more from the original source:

Trend analyst and futurist to share industry predictions - Queensland Country Life

Vancouver Tech Podcast Ep.62: Nikolas Badminton, futurist – BetaKit

On this weeks podcast, Drew Ogryzek talks about hiring incentives at his company. Alex Moxin put her node reading on hold, and with help from AdapTech, is solutions building an Event Store (stores events for CQRS solutions) using node.js, which so far includes creating a basic webserver. Shes installed and is learning to use Vimium so that she can use keyboard shortcuts to navigate, and is learning about http (hyper text transfer protocol) response headers.

Meetups around town Alex and Drew attended were Hackernest (hosted by Drew), TechVancouver, and DDD/CQRS/ES hosted by AdapTech.

This week, our featured guest is Nikolas Badminton! Badminton is a researcher and futurist speaker who splits his time between Canada (Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal), USA, and the UK. He provides insights into how people, communities, cities, businesses, and countries are changing with applied exponential technology. Niks primary interests in technology are in mixed reality, Internet of Things, smart cities, artificial intelligence, and renewable energy.

He studied applied psychology and computing in the UK, and specialized in artificial intelligence and linguistics along with social network theory and human-computer interaction. For over 20 years, hes been hacking his way through tech jobs in big data, analytics, advertising, and the sharing economy.

He recently interviewed Edward Snowden at the University of Waterloo, spoke to 1,500 leaders at the Premiers Forum for Natural Resources in Prince George, and you can see him at these upcoming events: Canada Futurists in Vancouver and Toronto; Our Futures Conference at Quest University in Squamish; and the 18th Annual Privacy & Security Conference. He will be leading a panel about mixed reality with innovators in that field.

You can see some of Niks featured work and speaking engagements at NikolasBadminton.com and be sure to check out his Modern Futures Podcast, which will soon rebrand to Exponential Minds. Heard here first on the Vancouver Tech Podcast, Nik will soon be launching Exponential Minds, which will be a content and event network and a worldwide superinfluencers network. He is also launching the Futurists Speakers Agency this month, so do check on http://www.futuristspeakersagency.com soon.

Welcome to the future!

If youre interested in contacting Nik you can reach him at nik@nikbadminton.com or on twitter @NikolasFuturist.

Theme music by A Shell In The Pit from the game Parkitect

The Vancouver Tech Podcast is a weekly show focusing on the growing tech industry in the city of Vancouver. Get caught up on the events and meetups around town, startups, new businesses, developers, designers, community programs, and news. Each episode includes an interview with an outstanding member of our community.

Listen to the show here, email us, or subscribe to the podcast on iTunes

More here:

Vancouver Tech Podcast Ep.62: Nikolas Badminton, futurist - BetaKit

Bin He: The Futurist – City Pages

Three years ago, University of Minnesota professor Bin He developed a brain-controlled drone.

Engineering students across the country now build them for fun, and Hes got a brain-controlled robot arm that can be wielded through the power of thought. A student guinea pig wearing a cap outfitted with sensors tracking the brains electrical impulses need only imagine moving the arm, and the arm complies.

He describes the innovation in practiced laymans terms. Imagine you need to locate a small ship in a storm, but theres a heavy dome of bad weather over the ocean. How are you supposed to pick up the rescue signals? His challenge was to develop a technology to pinpoint the brains electrical signals so perfectly that specific commands can be decoded through the thick plates of skull and hair.

The even-keeled professor is humbly expository when he talks about his groundbreaking achievement. He only becomes flushed when he imagines its possibilities.

There are several large classes of patients whose lives could change with further development of robot limbs: people with spinal cord injuries, stroke patients whose brains require rehab, and amputees who have lost body parts to war. Hes robot arm represents the hope of regaining full ability and independence.

Hes discoveries are just the latest in a 30-year career in pushing boundaries, which began when he was a high schooler in China, reading about an MIT professors pioneering research of the brains magnetic field in Science magazine. The idea that humans could pick up a tiny magnetic signal generated by the brain blew his mind. He was convinced that exciting things were happening in the United States.

Thirty years later, He is already dreaming 30 years into the future again. Advances in thought-controlled robots have the potential to transform human ability as we know it.

A robot arm mounted on a table could help a paralyzed patient feed himself. It could also help an able-bodied person cook dinner while doing laundry, or hold a cup of coffee and a bagel for a driver with two hands on the wheel. People could think lights on and off.

A lot of things we are skeptical of now, and 30 years later it will become the reality, He says. Every project I train a team of students to tackle the cutting-edge research, to learn things by doing things that have never been done before. Its not to teach them knowledge, but really to teach them the capability to discover knowledge.

Click here to see other entries in this year's City Pages People Issue.

Read this article:

Bin He: The Futurist - City Pages

San Diego Futurist Imagines End Of Personal Privacy – KPBS

When President Trump's advisor Kellyanne Conway used the term "alternate facts" to describe a falsehood about the inauguration turnout, a lot of people began hearing echoes of a 20th Century literary masterpiece.

George Orwell's "1984" alerted readers to the dangers of modern autocratic surveillance and "newspeak," a language that could no longer refer to opposing political ideas. Conways's comments led to a spike in demand for the book.

Now a new compilation of short stories takes Orwell's concept of "Big Brother" one step further. What happens when technological advances let us see and hear almost everything about the people around us? Will we become a society of "Little Brothers", constantly watching each other?

Science fiction writer and futurist David Brin co-edited the collection, called "Chasing Shadows: Visions of Our Coming Transparent World." Unlike most dystopian fiction, he wanted the stories to consider what happens when information floods the world, but citizens share in the power, not just government.

"If light floods everywhere, what happens to neighbors? Will we develop habits to leave people alone? Will shy people be able to even survive?" Brin said. "A lot of the stories are about fighting back."

UC San Diego literature professor Stephen Potts co-edited "Chasing Shadows." He and Brin join KPBS Midday Edition on Thursday with more on what could happen in a society without privacy.

To view PDF documents, Download Acrobat Reader.

Go here to read the rest:

San Diego Futurist Imagines End Of Personal Privacy - KPBS

The Futurist: Speed, scope, systems and death – Marketing Interactive

The fourth revolution is distinct from those before it due to the change in velocity, scope and system impact. This has an impact on people and their behaviour, altering the way in which people live, work and connect with one another, unlike any other revolution before it. It has an impact on businesses as well demanding better-connected experiences, transparency, open source, accessibility, agility and authenticity. Here are the five key areas which we believe are reshaping our industry.

From understanding to predicting customer journeys

Consumers dont experience the world in silos. Agencies need to understand the relationship between brands and customers across all channels and devices at the individual level. A brands ability to leverage that understanding to anticipate behaviours and produce meaningful, continuous interactions will be the greatest determinant for success. To get there, a brands data and technology strategy must be architected for mobile first, where we build everything around understanding the individual.

The right solution versus the right now solution

The proliferation of digital and technology has changed the pace at which agencies need to operate. The demands of faster product releases, rapid-fire system updates and connected customer experiences require these once distinct and disparate disciplines to work arm in arm to achieve marketing and business objectives that deliver a fl awless always-on customer experience.

Through-the-line to through-the-enterprise

This holds immense potential for businesses. The partnership between creativity and technology is what leads to new business models, product designs, service integrations, and cultural relevance to transform customer relationships with the products and services they need. To achieve this, the integration of the entire organisations intellectual capital is required. In this new world, brands need a partner who can imagine possibilities, not just optimise what is known and understood. A partner that can combine creativity and technology beyond share of market, but share of life. Not just through the line, but through the day.

Interdependence not integration

How we behave with one another is critical. It goes beyond just integration. Integration is a linear process that looks like a relay race. It results in fragmented thinking and work. And despite the different companies involved it is often inflexible. We believe in interdependence. Interdependence is about bringing the best skills together around a client problem. Its about mutual reliance with a rhythm of creative problem solving a back and forth flow that is dynamic and creates a new type of energy.

Publicis One a connected company

But for us to harness our assets fully we have had to make a big shift in the way we work.

We believe that the holding company model is dead and Publicis Groupe is brave enough to have killed it. Agencies are too inward and silo-ed looking and not suffi ciently focused on clients. It was all about individual agency excellence rather than collective innovation recognising that working together would yield new opportunities for our clients.

A connecting company does more than just manage its assets, it combines them in new ways for the benefit of its clients. A connecting company removes all artificial barriers and opens up all its resources people, tech, data, product, platforms to clients in the right combination for their needs. The Publicis One model allows us to rethink our approach for clients. A partner that not only understands the shift, but one thats leading the shift.

The author of this article is Tan Kien Eng, group CEO, Publicis One Malaysia and Leo Burnett Group Malaysia.

Read the original:

The Futurist: Speed, scope, systems and death - Marketing Interactive

The Futurist (Robert Downey Jr. album) – Wikipedia

The Futurist is the debut studio album by American actor Robert Downey Jr., produced by Jonathan Elias and Mark Hudson, and released on November 23, 2004 through Sony Classical. The album debuted at number 121 on the Billboard 200 chart, selling 16,000 copies in its first week.[1][2]

The album received mixed reviews, but Downey stated in 2006 that he probably will not do another album, as he felt that the energy he put into doing the album was not compensated. He explained that he did not want to spend whatever time he had at home in the studio, but rather with his family. "Broken" plays during the end credits to Downey's 2005 film Kiss Kiss Bang Bang.

The Futurist consists of eight pop ballads written by Downey, as well as two cover songs: "Smile", a Charlie Chaplin composition; and "Your Move", the first half of the song "I've Seen All Good People" by Yes.[3] The song "Hannah" is an allusion to Downey's 2000 film Wonder Boys.[4]

The album was produced by Jonathan Elias and Mark Hudson, with Downey playing on the piano on some of the tracks.

AllMusic's Matt Collar rated the album 3.5/5, and called Downey's lyrics "obtuse". However, he praised his interpretations of other musicians' work, such as "Your Move" by Yes and Charlie Chaplin's "Smile", and called the album "unpredictably moving as the best of Downey's film work."[5]

Elysa Gardner of USA Today wrote that the vibe on Downey's album "can seem pretentious or simply dull after a while, but there is a moody musicality to tracks such as 'Man Like Me' and 'Details'."[6]

Credits adapted from AllMusic.[7]

In the 2016 Marvel Studios film, Captain America: Civil War, Clint Barton mockingly refers to Tony Stark (played by Downey) as "The Futurist".

Go here to read the rest:

The Futurist (Robert Downey Jr. album) - Wikipedia

Doug Malewicki’s patented inventions and engineering …

To see pictures from each of the races listed below - Click HERE

7,000+ crazy runners (Geezer Doug proudly included, of course!)

Article and photos by columnist David Whiting: OC Register ___________________ Doug has enjoyed running Big Baz's Winter Trail Run Series since 1998! 15 years worth! http://www.BigBazTrailRaces.com

"Sportsman of the Year"

Check out the "DOUGumentary" QuickTime Movie Trailer at: http://www.3launch.com

Gore-Tex TRANSROCKIES http://www.Transrockies.com (Doug's Facebook page has 100's of photos from TransRockies) The 2012 TransRockies 6 day endurance race covered a total of 125 miles of trails between 8,000' and 12,538' elevations and had 21,000' of total ascents!

Team California Old Goats Doug (age 73) and ultra running legend Gordy Ainsleigh (age 64) - also ran the2011 six day TransRockies endurance trail race together.

2012 was Doug's 5th year in a row running the 6 day TransRockies race. Gordy & Dous are already signed up for the 2014 TransRockies! Doug's 6th year.

August 14, 2012 Team California Old Goats Gordy & Doug at the top of HOPE PASS - 12,538' elevation.

Hah! 6 pack abs compliments of PHOTOSHOP & Mark Kelly, PhD.

March 2013: I hit 74 on March 28, 2012. To celebrate my 74th birthdayI ran a bit more than 74 miles of my favorite trails in 4 days (74.13 miles according to my Garmin GPS).

I also did 70@70 in 3 days w/19,000' of climbs four years ago; 71@71 in 6 days; 72@72 in 5 days & 73@73 in 4 days

Doug & Yoda birthday present w/grand daughter Sierra & daughter Michelle (Do or do NOT.. There is no TRY!)

SkyTran - Personal MagLev Transportation

Malewicki has been an invited keynote speaker on SkyTran and our new Wind Turbine retrofit business (based on our SkyTran technology and patents) to Dubai (April 2010 with Dr. Greg Smedley CEO/founder of One-Cycle-Control, Inc.) and to Macau, China (July 2011). Details on these and several local presentations in California HERE

The photo on the left is Doug pointing to the Burj Khalifa in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. It is the world's tallest building at 2,716.5'. That is just over 1/2 mile up! http://www.burjkhalifa.ae

In Macau & Beijing, China

The interview is mostly about my SkyTran invention, but also talks about the advanced Wind Turbine work we are doing and even the low cost electric first stage boosters for Micro-satellite launches. Some of that was discussed in the IEEE paper that you can read below.

My SkyTran invention was featured on the cover of he July 2008 issue of Popular Science (or their artist's version of what THEY think our pods should look like). "GREEN MEGALOPOLIS - An eco-savvy blueprint for tomorrow's megacity points the way to fresh air, clean water and traffic that never jams."

Starting on page 49, five more pages have our MagLev SkyTran in the future city art done by a second artist. Includes a nice paragraph that mentions our company UniModal LLC. Love their online animation at: http://www.popsci.com/futurecity/plan.html (SkyTran is the 4th- click on their FLASH animation).

Check out: http://www.SkyTran.us

The key to this solid state, personalized MagLev systems capacity performance falls out of math and physics analysis. SkyTran will greatly reduce energy used in the transportation of people; eliminate the pollution associated with commuting; greatly enhance safety of personal travel and reduce travel costs.

The California Commuter - 157 MPG at freeway speeds

The California Commuter PLANS & TECHNICAL BOOKLET are also available as electronical PDF's. (Faster, cheaper & ZERO shipping costs!)

157.192 MPG

156.53 MPG

The improved eCC will have 25% less aerodynamic drag and will obtain 400 MPGe at a steady 65 MPH.

IMAGINE a penny per mile!

Robosaurus - the FIRE BREATHING monster robot

ROBOSAURUS THE FIRE BREATHING, CAR EATING, ELECTROHYDROMECHANICAL, 40 foot tall, 58,000 pound, TRANSFORMING MONSTER ENTERTAINMENT ROBOT. GOING ONCE... GOING TWICE... GONE! On January 19, 2008 after 18 years of operation, Robosaurus was sold at the famed Barrett-Jackson Auction in Scottsdale, Arizona . MORE Two of Dougs USA Patents are for his Robosaurus invention. He founded Monster Robots, Inc. and was involved in finding all investors and product sponsors. Doug did all the structural design and engineering (loads determinations, weights and stress analysis). Along with all the electronic, hydraulic and control system packaging and functional testing. The creature, which was built in 1.5 years, has been doing shows since 1990. The most recent NDT (non-destructive-testing) inspection of all welded joints was performed at 250,000 miles and showed no weld fatigue degradation.

One man sitting up in the creatures cranium controls Robosaurus. Doug had to develop an innovative wearable control system to enable a single pilot to simultaneously control 18 proportional hydraulic motions. Each hydraulic valve is controlled by a P-Q Controls Inc. of Bristol, Connecticut computer valve board that converts the simple on-off electrical switch signals given by the pilot in the head into proper proportional fluid flow rates to the various hydraulic cylinders and pumps.

Much of the Robosaurus structural design involved tradeoffs to enable transformation to a legal trailer for hauling the 58,000-pound, fire breathing, beast from show to show. Robosaurus meets highway size and weight requirements for all 50 States.

FLYING and DARPA FLYING MACHINES

UMAAVs (Unmanned Morphing Aerial Attack Vehicles)a conceptual development contract for DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Project Agency).

Rather than just doing a extensive theoretical aerodynamic and structural analysis for his innovative designs,Doug's company AeroVisions, Inc. built and flew Radio Control modelsto demonstrate his various morphing concepts.

July 2005, Doug was the plenary speaker for the DARPA Morphing Aircraft Structures Conference in San Diego.After sensing & confirming the bad guys, morphing UAVs of the future will be able to transform and divedownat Mach 0.9 and pull 5 g maneuvers to take out targets. Will save calling in the F-16 jet jocks and waiting 20 minutes for them to arrive. A computer generated movie of a typical mission of Dougs favorite proposed UMAAV, aptly named THE DROID OF DEATH, can be seen at the above UMAAV link.

DAREDEVIL Engineering Projects

NOTICE: April 18, 2014 AeroVisions, LLC and the Big Ed (Beckley Media LLC) have mutually terminated the relationship to build a rocket powered motorcycle system for Big Ed to jump the Snake River Canyon. We are no longer involved in engineering or developing his jump bike system. There were numerous reasons we could not participate:

1) AeroVisions negotiating with Beckley Media's attorney for months without reaching a fair agreement.

2) AeroVisions agreed to warrantee the jump bike & jump system. Beckley wanted us to warrant the rider as well.

3) In April, Beckley insisted on changing the engineering funding source to a new 3rd party. Negotiating with that party's attorney would have just added more delay.

4) AeroVisions constantly expressed urgency to start engineering, since time was rapidly evaporating to complete the project with confidence by September 7, 2014. We needed adequate time to design, engineer, fabricate and fully test all systems plus train the pilot to establish a high level of confidence to insure a 99.5% probability of success for the rider. Rushing and only achieving 70% probability of success by starting at this late date to us was unacceptable.

5) Extending the jump date to July 4th, 2015 was also unacceptable to Beckley Media.

6) The AeroVisions proposed jump bike would be a genuine drivable motorcycle that could "jump" over 1/2 mile in distance and land on its wheels on the other side. It would NOT be a non-road worthy, non-motorcycle, rocket powered missile that would slide up a launch rail like a child's model rocket toy.

All we can say is best of luck to Big Ed in "gettin' er done" safely this September.

Rest in Peace Oct 17,1938 - Nov 30, 2007.

Doug Malewicki was the designer and engineer of Evel Knievel's steam rocket powered SkyCycle X-1 canyon jumping motorcycle. Doug is shown here shaking hands with Evel at the machine's unveiling at the Twin Falls, Idaho Snake River canyon jump site on May 6, 1972. On the left is rocket pioneer, Robert Truax who invented and holds the patents on Steam Rocket engines. Wearing sunglasses is Facundo Campoy, one of Truax's partners.

Niagara Falls Aerospace Museum Rocket Belt Conference PHOTOS Click HERE to see the online PBS interviews & flight videos from the conference

NUCLEAR WAR - Doug's 1965 Game Invention

As time passed, the weapons used in the basic game became obsolete, so expansion sets with newer futuristic weapons were created:

1965 - The original Nuclear War 1982 - Nuclear Escalation 1992 Nuclear Proliferation 1996 Nuclear War Booster Packs 2004 Weapons of Mass Destruction (YES - that is THE DROID OF DEATH on the cover of the newest game!)

Doug and his original Nuclear War game were inducted into the Adventure Game Hall of Fame in 1998. 2015 will be the 50th Anniversary of Nuclear War! F. B. I. will celebrate with a NEW SPECIAL EDITION!

Droid phone screen shot Still ticking after 48 years! The RadioAPPtive Fallout Spinner is now available in the DROID & iPhone marketplaces. (SEARCH: Nuclear War Spinner)

You use the touch screen to swipe the arrow to get it moving. As it spins, it makes Geiger Counter ticking sounds. When it stops you will hear the results. Hilarious voiceover comments in an over-the-top Russkie accent by actress Claudia Christian, well known for her TV character - Commander Ivanova of the SciFi hit series Babylon 5. [Special thanks to Rick Roszko, Rick Loomis & Steve Johnson]

"LOST WORLDS" COMBAT FANTASY BOOKS

Michelle has taken up trail running like her dad & has evolved into a top ranked ultra distance speedster. Over the years Michelle set numerous female course records for 50K and 50 mile race distances - including six as overall winner where she "chicked" all the men!

She won first female & fourth overall at the Javelina Jundred 100 mile trail race in Arizona in a 19:42 time. She was 4 hours ahead of the second place female! Pictures

ORDER PAGE Hard to find Rocket Books on 90% Hydrogen Peroxide, Steam and Solid Propellant rocket systems; California Commuter Car plans; Air Car plans; Nuclear War games/T-Shirts! We take PayPal payments for USA & foreign orders. PayPal processes most credit cards too.

Click HERE to see MORE pictures of Doug Malewicki's other inventions and read his free TIPS for new inventors.

Doug's favorite quotes (besides Yoda!)

"Life is what you make it; always has been; always will be." -- Grandma Moses

Follow this link:

Doug Malewicki's patented inventions and engineering ...

Russian Futurism – Wikipedia

Russian Futurism was a movement of Russian poets and artists who adopted the principles of Filippo Marinetti's "Futurist Manifesto".

Russian Futurism may be said to have been born in December 1912, when the Moscow-based literary group Hylaea (Russian: [Gileya]) (initiated in 1910 by David Burlyuk and his brothers at their estate near Kherson, and quickly joined by Vasily Kamensky and Velimir Khlebnikov, with Aleksey Kruchenykh and Vladimir Mayakovsky joining in 1911)[1] issued a manifesto entitled A Slap in the Face of Public Taste (Russian: ).[2] Other members included artists Mikhail Larionov, Natalia Goncharova, Kazimir Malevich, and Olga Rozanova.[3] Although Hylaea is generally considered to be the most influential group of Russian Futurism, other groups were formed in St. Petersburg (Igor Severyanin's Ego-Futurists), Moscow (Tsentrifuga, with Boris Pasternak among its members), Kiev, Kharkov, and Odessa.

Like their Italian counterparts, the Russian Futurists were fascinated with the dynamism, speed, and restlessness of modern machines and urban life. They purposely sought to arouse controversy and to gain publicity by repudiating the static art of the past. The likes of Pushkin and Dostoevsky, according to them, should be "heaved overboard from the steamship of modernity". They acknowledged no authorities whatsoever; even Filippo Tommaso Marinetti, when he arrived in Russia on a proselytizing visit in 1914, was obstructed by most Russian Futurists, who did not profess to owe him anything.

In contrast to Marinetti's circle, Russian Futurism was primarily a literary rather than a plastic philosophy. Although many poets (Mayakovsky, Burlyuk) dabbled with painting, their interests were primarily literary. However, such well-established artists as Mikhail Larionov, Natalia Goncharova, and Kazimir Malevich found inspiration in the refreshing imagery of Futurist poems and experimented with versification themselves. The poets and painters collaborated on such innovative productions as the Futurist opera Victory Over the Sun, with music by Mikhail Matyushin, texts by Kruchenykh and sets contributed by Malevich.

Members of Hylaea elaborated the doctrine of Cubo-Futurism and assumed the name of budetlyane (from the Russian word budet 'will be'). They found significance in the shape of letters, in the arrangement of text around the page, in the details of typography. They considered that there is no substantial difference between words and material things, hence the poet should arrange words in his poems like the artist arranges colors and lines on his canvas. Grammar, syntax, and logic were often discarded; many neologisms and profane words were introduced; onomatopoeia was declared a universal texture of verse. Khlebnikov, in particular, developed "an incoherent and anarchic blend of words stripped of their meaning and used for their sound alone",[4] known as zaum.

With all this emphasis on formal experimentation, some Futurists were not indifferent to politics. In particular, Mayakovsky's poems, with their lyrical sensibility, appealed to a broad range of readers. He vehemently opposed the meaningless slaughter of World War I and hailed the Russian Revolution as the end of that traditional mode of life which he and other Futurists ridiculed so zealously.

War correspondent Arthur Ransome and five other foreigners were taken to see two of the Bolshevik propaganda trains in 1919 by their organiser, Burov. He first showed them the "Lenin", which had been painted a year and a half ago when, as fading hoardings in the streets of Moscow still testify, revolutionary art was dominated by the Futurist movement. Every carriage is decorated with most striking but not very comprehensible pictures in the brightest colours, and the proletariat was called upon to enjoy what the pre-revolutionary artistic public had for the most part failed to understand. Its pictures are art for arts sake, and can not have done more than astonish, and perhaps terrify, the peasants and the workmen of the country towns who had the luck to see them. The "Red Cossack" is quite different. As Burov put it with deep satisfaction, At first we were in the artists hands, and now the artists are in our hands (The other three trains were the "Sverdlov", the "October Revolution", and the "Red East"). Initially the Department of Proletarian Culture had delivered Burov bound hand and foot to a number of Futurists , but now the artists had been brought under proper control.[5]

After the Bolsheviks gained power, Mayakovsky's grouppatronized by Anatoly Lunacharsky, Bolshevik Commissar for Educationaspired to dominate Soviet culture. Their influence was paramount during the first years after the revolution, until their programor rather lack thereofwas subjected to scathing criticism by the authorities. By the time OBERIU attempted to revive some of the Futurist tenets during the late 1920s, the Futurist movement in Russia had already ended. The most militant Futurist poets either died (Khlebnikov, Mayakovsky) or preferred to adjust their very individual style to more conventional requirements and trends (Aseyev, Pasternak).

See the article here:

Russian Futurism - Wikipedia

US Army’s Chief Futurist Says Russia Will Have Surpassed …

Our enemies have not remained static, warns Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, the Armys charismatic chief futurist. One assessment says that Russia will have surpassed US forces in three of 10 key areas of combat by 2030, reached parity in six, and remain behind in only one. On the US side, the current M1 Abrams heavy tank and M2 Bradley armed transport have been upgraded so many times already that theyre close to maxed out, McMaster told an Association of the US Army conference yesterday. But at the same time, he said, we have tremendous opportunities, associated with technologies at a high level of maturity that can be incorporated into a new generation combat vehicle.

Next Generation combat vehicle(s) by 2035

The US Army wants its Next Generation Combat Vehicle to serve as pack master to a swarm of crawling and flying robots. It wants lighter weapons with heavier firepower, able to aim almost straight up to shoot drones out of the sky and hit rooftop snipers. It wants miniaturized missile defenses to shoot down incoming anti-tank weapons. It wants suspension, underbody, and crew compartments designed from the ground up (literally) to resist landmines and roadside bombs. It wants diesel-electric engines like a giant Prius or other advanced motors that can power an array of jammers, sensors, and drone-killing lasers.

To take full advantage of the new technologies, he said, you need to build a new vehicle designed around them.

The factor that drives armored vehicle design, more than any other, is volume under armor. The bigger the gun, the bigger the engine, and above all the bigger the crew, the more armor you have to wrap around them to achieve any given level of protection, and, of course, the more armor, the more weight. The M1 is built to handle the recoil of a 120 mm smoothbore cannon and to accommodate a four-man crew: commander, driver, gunner, and loader. If you replace the 120 with a lighter weapon that uses more powerful energetics i.e. warhead and gunpowder to get the same effect, then redesign the turret around the smaller weapon, each pound saved on the gun itself saves you multiple pounds of armor on the vehicle overall. If you replace the human loader with a mechanical autoloader unreliable gadgets back in the 1970s but mature today you can save even more weight and possibly take the crew out of the turret entirely (as on the new Russian T-14 Armata).

The goal isnt just to build a better Bradley or Abrams, Wesley said. We need to think more broadly, (e.g.) manned-unmanned teaming, he said, referring to humans and robots working closely together. The unmanned systems scout ahead and, potentially, carry weapons, acting as expendable skirmishers and spear-carriers for manned vehicle, which is the only one that needs full-up armor. If Ive got a remotely piloted or tethered vehicle with zero humans inside to protect now I can really reduce weight, Wesley said.

The Armys overly ambitious Future Combat Systems program was cancelled in 2009.

Whats different? To start with, the Army literally boxed itself in on FCS, trying to build vehicles as powerful as a 70-ton M1 that could fit in an Air Force C-130, which can carry a maximum of 19 tons. The Next Generation Combat Vehicle isnt constrained by weight, although lighter than the M1 is clearly a goal; air-deployable firepower is being provided by a completely different program, the Mobile Protected Firepower (MPF) light tank, which isnt expected to take on the hardest targets. To meet its weight limits, FCS tried to use Active Protection Systems instead of heavy armor; the current approach is to layer APS on top of heavy armor, a much more reliable approach.

SOURCE - Breaking Defense

Read more:

US Army's Chief Futurist Says Russia Will Have Surpassed ...

Cosmotown.com – Lowest Cost Domain Names Ownership

Compare over 5 years & See why thousands are choosing Cosmotown

Name Cheap costs 52% more for .com and 94% more for .net

1 & 1 costs 62% more for .com and 115% more for .net

Go Daddy costs 195% more for .com and 270% for .net

I have been looking for a domain company that would be upfront and respectable around a simple price model that was fair and not a bait and switch. My experience [with Cosmotown] has been excellent.

Thanks for the great service and free domain privacy. Almost went with GoDaddy, until I went to checkout and found they charge 9.99/yr just for private registration. That's more than you charge for the domain registration!

The domain pricing is awesome, and the customer care is the best I have seen in 15 years! I am a customer for life!!! THANK YOU Cosmotown, for letting me focus on my music... you ROCK!

* If you find a lower regular price within 12 months of registering your domain with Cosmotown, we will refund you double the difference in price. Only other registrars' regular pricing applies, promotional pricing, coupon pricing, limited time offers etc are excluded. Whois Privacy is free for as long as your domain is registered with Cosmotown, on domains extensions that allow Whois Privacy. Certain domain extensions do not allow Whois Privacy due to registry restrictions, such as country code TLDs (.cc, .asia etc). All quoted prices are based on regular prices as of 1/1/2014 for a one-year registration of a single domain. Product and program specifications, availability, and pricing are subject to change without notice. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

Read more here:

Cosmotown.com - Lowest Cost Domain Names Ownership

Future – Wikipedia

The future is what will happen in the time after the present. Its arrival is considered inevitable due to the existence of time and the laws of physics. Due to the apparent nature of reality and the unavoidability of the future, everything that currently exists and will exist can be categorized as either permanent, meaning that it will exist forever, or temporary, meaning that it will end. The future and the concept of eternity have been major subjects of philosophy, religion, and science, and defining them non-controversially has consistently eluded the greatest of minds.[1] In the Occidental view, which uses a linear conception of time, the future is the portion of the projected time line that is anticipated to occur.[2] In special relativity, the future is considered absolute future, or the future light cone.[3]

In the philosophy of time, presentism is the belief that only the present exists and the future and the past are unreal. Religions consider the future when they address issues such as karma, life after death, and eschatologies that study what the end of time and the end of the world will be. Religious figures such as prophets and diviners have claimed to see into the future. Organized efforts to predict or forecast the future may have derived from observations by early man of heavenly objects.

Future studies, or futurology, is the science, art and practice of postulating possible futures. Modern practitioners stress the importance of alternative and plural futures, rather than one monolithic future, and the limitations of prediction and probability, versus the creation of possible and preferable futures.

The concept of the future has been explored extensively in cultural production, including art movements and genres devoted entirely to its elucidation, such as the 20th century movement futurism.

Forecasting is the process of estimating outcomes in uncontrolled situations. Forecasting is applied in many areas, such as weather forecasting, earthquake prediction, transport planning, and labour market planning. Due to the element of the unknown, risk and uncertainty are central to forecasting.

Statistically based forecasting employs time series with cross-sectional or longitudinal data. Econometric forecasting methods use the assumption that it is possible to identify the underlying factors that might influence the variable that is being forecast. If the causes are understood, projections of the influencing variables can be made and used in the forecast. Judgmental forecasting methods incorporate intuitive judgments, opinions and probability estimates, as in the case of the Delphi method, scenario building, and simulations.

Prediction is similar to forecasting but is used more generally, for instance to also include baseless claims on the future. Organized efforts to predict the future began with practices like astrology, haruspicy, and augury. These are all considered to be pseudoscience today, evolving from the human desire to know the future in advance.

Modern efforts such as future studies attempt to predict technological and societal trends, while more ancient practices, such as weather forecasting, have benefited from scientific and causal modelling. Despite the development of cognitive instruments for the comprehension of future, the stochastic and chaotic nature of many natural and social processes has made precise forecasting of the future elusive.

Future studies or futurology is the science, art and practice of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures and the worldviews and myths that underlie them. Futures studies seeks to understand what is likely to continue, what is likely to change, and what is novel. Part of the discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to determine the likelihood of future events and trends. A key part of this process is understanding the potential future impact of decisions made by individuals, organisations and governments. Leaders use results of such work to assist in decision-making.

Futures is an interdisciplinary field, studying yesterday's and today's changes, and aggregating and analyzing both lay and professional strategies, and opinions with respect to tomorrow. It includes analyzing the sources, patterns, and causes of change and stability in the attempt to develop foresight and to map possible futures. Modern practitioners stress the importance of alternative and plural futures, rather than one monolithic future, and the limitations of prediction and probability, versus the creation of possible and preferable futures.

Three factors usually distinguish futures studies from the research conducted by other disciplines (although all disciplines overlap, to differing degrees). First, futures studies often examines not only possible but also probable, preferable, and "wild card" futures. Second, futures studies typically attempts to gain a holistic or systemic view based on insights from a range of different disciplines. Third, futures studies challenges and unpacks the assumptions behind dominant and contending views of the future. The future thus is not empty but fraught with hidden assumptions.

Futures studies does not generally include the work of economists who forecast movements of interest rates over the next business cycle, or of managers or investors with short-term time horizons. Most strategic planning, which develops operational plans for preferred futures with time horizons of one to three years, is also not considered futures. But plans and strategies with longer time horizons that specifically attempt to anticipate and be robust to possible future events, are part of a major subdiscipline of futures studies called strategic foresight.

The futures field also excludes those who make future predictions through professed supernatural means. At the same time, it does seek to understand the models such groups use and the interpretations they give to these models.

In physics, time is a fourth dimension. Physicists argue that space-time can be understood as a sort of stretchy fabric that bends due to forces such as gravity. In classical physics the future is just a half of the timeline, which is the same for all observers. In special relativity the flow of time is relative to the observer's frame of reference. The faster an observer is traveling away from a reference object, the slower that object seems to move through time. Hence, future is not an objective notion anymore. A more significant notion is absolute future or the future light cone. While a person can move backwards or forwards in the three spatial dimensions, many physicists argue you are only able to move forward in time.[4]

One of the outcomes of Special Relativity Theory is that a person can travel into the future (but never come back) by traveling at very high speeds. While this effect is negligible under ordinary conditions, space travel at very high speeds can change the flow of time considerably. As depicted in many science fiction stories and movies (e.g. Dj Vu), a person traveling for even a short time at near light speed will return to an Earth that is many years in the future.

Some physicists claim that by using a wormhole to connect two regions of space-time a person could theoretically travel in time. Physicist Michio Kaku points out that to power this hypothetical time machine and "punch a hole into the fabric of space-time", it would require the energy of a star. Another theory is that a person could travel in time with cosmic strings.

"The trouble with the future is that it's so much less knowable than the past."

In the philosophy of time, presentism is the belief that only the present exists, and the future and past are unreal. Past and future "entities" are construed as logical constructions or fictions. The opposite of presentism is 'eternalism', which is the belief that things in the past and things yet to come exist eternally. Another view (not held by many philosophers) is sometimes called the 'growing block' theory of timewhich postulates that the past and present exist, but the future does not.[6]

Presentism is compatible with Galilean relativity, in which time is independent of space, but is probably incompatible with Lorentzian/Einsteinian relativity in conjunction with certain other philosophical theses that many find uncontroversial. Saint Augustine proposed that the present is a knife edge between the past and the future and could not contain any extended period of time.

Contrary to Saint Augustine, some philosophers propose that conscious experience is extended in time. For instance, William James said that time is "...the short duration of which we are immediately and incessantly sensible."[citation needed] Augustine proposed that God is outside of time and present for all times, in eternity. Other early philosophers who were presentists include the Buddhists (in the tradition of Indian Buddhism). A leading scholar from the modern era on Buddhist philosophy is Stcherbatsky, who has written extensively on Buddhist presentism:

While ethologists consider animal behavior largely based on fixed action patterns or other learned traits in an animal's past[citation needed], human behavior is known to encompass anticipation of the future. Anticipatory behavior can be the result of a psychological outlook toward the future, for examples optimism, pessimism, and hope.

Optimism is an outlook on life such that one maintains a view of the world as a positive place. People would say that optimism is seeing the glass "half full" of water as opposed to half empty. It is the philosophical opposite of pessimism. Optimists generally believe that people and events are inherently good, so that most situations work out in the end for the best. Hope is a belief in a positive outcome related to events and circumstances in one's life. Hope implies a certain amount of despair, wanting, wishing, suffering or perseverance i.e., believing that a better or positive outcome is possible even when there is some evidence to the contrary. "Hopefulness" is somewhat different from optimism in that hope is an emotional state, whereas optimism is a conclusion reached through a deliberate thought pattern that leads to a positive attitude.

Pessimism as stated before is the opposite of optimism. It is the tendency to see, anticipate, or emphasize only bad or undesirable outcomes, results, or problems. The word originates in Latin from Pessimus meaning worst and Malus meaning bad.

Religions consider the future when they address issues such as karma, life after death, and eschatologies that study what the end of time and the end of the world will be. In religion, major prophets are said to have the power to change the future. Common religious figures have claimed to see into the future, such as minor prophets and diviners. The term "afterlife" refers to the continuation of existence of the soul, spirit or mind of a human (or animal) after physical death, typically in a spiritual or ghostlike afterworld. Deceased persons are usually believed to go to a specific region or plane of existence in this afterworld, often depending on the rightness of their actions during life.

Some believe the afterlife includes some form of preparation for the soul to transfer to another body (reincarnation). The major views on the afterlife derive from religion, esotericism and metaphysics. There are those who are skeptical of the existence of the afterlife, or believe that it is absolutely impossible, such as the materialist-reductionists, who believe that the topic is supernatural, therefore does not really exist or is unknowable. In metaphysical models, theists generally believe some sort of afterlife awaits people when they die. Atheists generally do not believe in a life after death. Members of some generally non-theistic religions such as Buddhism, tend to believe in an afterlife like reincarnation but without reference to God.

Agnostics generally hold the position that like the existence of God, the existence of supernatural phenomena, such as souls or life after death, is unverifiable and therefore unknowable.[8] Many religions, whether they believe in the souls existence in another world like Christianity, Islam and many pagan belief systems, or in reincarnation like many forms of Hinduism and Buddhism, believe that ones status in the afterlife is a reward or punishment for their conduct during life, with the exception of Calvinistic variants of Protestant Christianity, which believes one's status in the afterlife is a gift from God and cannot be earned during life.

Eschatology is a part of theology and philosophy concerned with the final events in the history of the world, or the ultimate destiny of humanity, commonly referred to as the end of the world. While in mysticism the phrase refers metaphorically to the end of ordinary reality and reunion with the Divine, in many traditional religions it is taught as an actual future event prophesied in sacred texts or folklore. More broadly, eschatology may encompass related concepts such as the Messiah or Messianic Age, the end time, and the end of days.

Futurism as an art movement originated in Italy at the beginning of the 20th century. It developed largely in Italy and in Russia, although it also had adherents in other countries - in England and Portugal for example. The Futurists explored every medium of art, including painting, sculpture, poetry, theatre, music, architecture and even gastronomy. Futurists had a passionate loathing of ideas from the past, especially political and artistic traditions. They also espoused a love of speed, technology, and violence. Futurists dubbed the love of the past passisme. The car, the plane, and the industrial town were all legendary for the Futurists, because they represented the technological triumph of people over nature. The Futurist Manifesto of 1909 declared: "We will glorify warthe world's only hygienemilitarism, patriotism, the destructive gesture of freedom-bringers, beautiful ideas worth dying for, and scorn for woman."[9] Though it owed much of its character and some of its ideas to radical political movements, it had little involvement in politics until the autumn of 1913.[10]

One[which?] of the many 20th-century classical movements in music paid homage to, included, or imitated machines. Closely identified with the central Italian Futurist movement were brother composers Luigi Russolo (1885-1947) and Antonio Russolo (1877-1942), who used instruments known as intonarumori - essentially sound boxes used to create music out of noise. Luigi Russolo's futurist manifesto, The Art of Noises, is considered[by whom?] one of the most important and influential texts in 20th century musical aesthetics. Other examples of futurist music include Arthur Honegger's Pacific 231 (1923), which imitates the sound of a steam locomotive, Prokofiev's "The Steel Step", and the experiments of Edgard Varse.

Literary futurism made its debut with F.T. Marinetti's Manifesto of Futurism (1909). Futurist poetry used unexpected combinations of images and hyper-conciseness (not to be confused with the actual length of the poem). Futurist theater works have scenes a few sentences long, use nonsensical humor, and try to discredit the deep-rooted dramatic traditions with parody. Longer literature forms, such as novels, had no place in the Futurist aesthetic, which had an obsession with speed and compression.

Futurism expanded to encompass other artistic domains and ultimately included painting, sculpture, ceramics, graphic design, industrial design, interior design, theatre design, textiles, drama, literature, music and architecture. In architecture, it featured a distinctive thrust towards rationalism and modernism through the use of advanced building materials. The ideals of futurism remain as significant components of modern Western culture; the emphasis on youth, speed, power and technology finding expression in much of modern commercial cinema and commercial culture. Futurism has produced several reactions, including the 1980s-era literary genre of cyberpunk which often treated technology with a critical eye.

Science-fiction writer Robert A. Heinlein defined science fiction as:

More generally, one can regard science fiction as a broad genre of fiction that often involves speculations based on current or future science or technology. Science fiction is found in books, art, television, films, games, theater, and other media. Science fiction differs from fantasy in that, within the context of the story, its imaginary elements are largely possible within scientifically established or scientifically postulated laws of nature (though some elements in a story might still be pure imaginative speculation). Settings may include the future, or alternative time-lines, and stories may depict new or speculative scientific principles (such as time travel or psionics), or new technology (such as nanotechnology, faster-than-light travel or robots). Exploring the consequences of such differences is the traditional purpose of science fiction, making it a "literature of ideas".[12]

Some science fiction authors construct a postulated history of the future called a "future history" that provides a common background for their fiction. Sometimes authors publish a timeline of events in their history, while other times the reader can reconstruct the order of the stories from information in the books. Some published works constitute "future history" in a more literal sensei.e., stories or whole books written in the style of a history book but describing events in the future. Examples include H.G. Wells' The Shape of Things to Come (1933) - written in the form of a history book published in the year 2106 and in the manner of a real history book with numerous footnotes and references to the works of (mostly fictitious) prominent historians of the 20th and 21st centuries.

The linear view of time (common in Western thought) draws a stronger distinction between past and future than does the more common cyclic time of cultures such as India, where past and future can coalesce much more readily.[13]

Go here to read the rest:

Future - Wikipedia

article in The Futurist – Dr. Clare W. Graves

This paper is made available with the permission of the World Future Society, Bethesda, MD

Readers should know that Dr. Graves was not entirely satisfied with this piece as it appeared in The Futurist, though it is by far the most popular of his articles and quite readable as an introduction to the theory.

Significant portions of this article were crafted by editor Ed Cornish using Dr. Graves's basic ideas and principles. Graves was also not entirely happy with some of these depictions of levels such as GT and HU, as well as parts of the commentary added by the editor. The portions with heavy editorial involvement are indented.

Human Nature Prepares for a Momentous Leap

by Clare W. Graves

[From The Futurist, 1974, pp. 72-87. Edited with embedded comments by Edward Cornish, World Future Society.]

View Summary Table from the Article

A new psychological theory holds that human beings exist at different levels of existence. At any given level, an individual exhibits the behavior and values characteristic of people at that level; a person who is centralized at a lower level cannot even understand people who are at a higher level. In the following article, psychologist Clare Graves outlines his theory and what it suggests regarding man's future. Through history, says Graves, most people have been confined to the lower levels of existence where they were motivated by needs shared with other animals. Now, Western man appears ready to move up to a higher level of existence, a distinctly human level. When this happens there will likely be a dramatic transformation of human institutions.

For many people the prospect of the future is dimmed by what they see as a moral breakdown of our society at both the public and private level. My research, over more than 20 years as a psychologist interested in human values, indicates that something is indeed happening to human values, but it is not so much a collapse in the fiber of man as a sign of human health and intelligence. My research indicates that man is learning that values and ways of living which were good for him at one period in his development are no longer good because of the changed condition of his existence. He is recognizing that the old values are no longer appropriate, but he has not yet understood the new.

The error which most people make when they think about human values is that they assume the nature of man is fixed and there is a single set of human values by which he should live. Such an assumption does not fit with my research. My data indicate that man's nature is an open, constantly evolving system, a system which proceeds by quantum jumps from one steady state system to the next through a hierarchy of ordered systems.

Briefly, what I am proposing is that the psychology of the mature human being is an unfolding, emergent, oscillating, spiraling process marked by progressive subordination of older, lower-order behavior systems to newer, higher-order systems as man's existential problems change. These systems alternate between focus upon the external world, and attempts to change it, and focus upon the inner world, and attempts to come to peace with it, with the means to each end changing in each alternatively prognostic system. Thus, man tends, normally, to change his psychology as the conditions of his existence change. Each successive state, or level of existence, is a state through which people pass on the way to other states of equilibrium. When a person is centralized in one state of existence, he has a total psychology which is particular to that state. His feelings, motivations, ethics and values, biochemistry, degree of neurological activation, learning systems, belief systems, conception of mental health, ideas as to what mental illness is and how it should be treated, preferences for and conceptions of management, education, economic and political theory and practice, etc., are all appropriate to that state.

In some cases, a person may not be genetically or constitutionally equipped to change in the normal upward direction when the conditions of his existence change. Instead, he may stabilize and live out his life at any one or a combination of levels in the hierarchy. Again, he may show the behavior of a level in a predominantly positive or negative manner, or he may, under certain circumstances, regress to a behavior system lower in the hierarchy. Thus, an adult lives in a potentially open system of needs, values and aspirations, but he often settles into what appears to be a closed system.

Human existence can be likened to a symphony with six themes. In a symphony, the composer normally begins by stating his themes in the simplest possible manner. In human existence, our species begins by stating in the simplest way those themes which will preoccupy us through thousands of variations. At this point in history, the societal effective leading edge of man in the technologically advanced nations is currently finishing the initial statement of the sixth theme of existence and is beginning again with the first theme in an entirely new and more sophisticated variation. That is, man has reached the point of finishing the first and most primitive ladder of existence: the one concerned with the emergence of the individual of the species Homo sapiens and his subsistence on this planet. The first six levels of existence, A-N through F-S, have accordingly been called Subsistence Levels. (A stands for the neurological system in the brain upon which the psychological system is based; N for the set of existential problems that the A neurological system is able to cope with. Thus, in the A-N state, one calls on the A system to solve the N problems of existence.) These six subsistence levels comprise the initial statement of man's themes in its very simplest form.

The six subsistence levels of man's existence have as their overall goal the establishment of individual survival and dignity. Once having become reasonably secure, both physically and psychologically, in his existence, the individual becomes suddenly free to experience the wonder and interdependence of all life. But he must notice at the same time that the struggle for man's emergent individuality has imperiled the very survival of that life. Thus, just as early man at the most primitive level of subsistence (A-N), had to use what power he could command to stabilize his individual life functions, so G-T man, the individual who has reached the first level of being must use what knowledge he can command to stabilize the essential functions of interdependent life. Similarly, B-O or tribal man gathered together in communities to insure his individual, physical survival, and our G-T man of the future must form communities of knowledge to insure the survival of all viable life upon this Earth. We see therefore that the six themes constantly repeat, even though man progresses from the simple statement of individual subsistence to the variation of the interdependence of life. This stately succession of themes and movements is the general pattern of the levels of existence.

In this discussion of man's present and future, the first three subsistence levels must still concern us because many people, from aborigines to newly emergent nations, are still living at these levels of existence.

Here are brief descriptions of the levels as I have come to know them through my research:

Some Characteristics of Various Levels

Automatic Existence (First Subsistence Level)

Man at the first subsistence level (A-N), the automatic state of physiological existence, seeks only the immediate satisfaction of his basic physiological needs. He has only an imperative need-based concept of time and space and no concept of cause or effect. His awareness excludes self and is limited to the presence of physiologically determined tension when it is present, and the relief of such tension when it takes place. He lives a purely physiological existence. Man the species, or man the individual, does not have to rise above this level to continue the survival of the species. He can continue the survival of the species through the purely physiological aspect of the process of procreation. He can live what is for him, at the A-N level, a productive lifetime, productive in the sense that his built-in response mechanisms are able to reduce the tensions of the imperative physiological needs and a reproductive lifetime. But this level of existence seldom is seen in the modern world except in pathological cases.

As soon as man, in his food-gathering wanderings, accrues a set of Pavlovian conditioned reflexes, which provide for the satisfaction of his imperative needs, and thus enters his 'Garden of Eden,' he slides almost imperceptibly out of this first stage into the second existential state, and established form of human existence, the tribalistic way of life.

Tribalistic Existence (Second Subsistence Level)

At the second subsistence level, the B-O autistic state of thinking, man's need is for stability. He seeks to continue a way of life that he does not understand but strongly defends. This level of man has just struggled forth from striving to exist and now has his first established way of life. This way of life is essentially without awareness, thought, or purpose, for it is based on Pavlovian classical conditioning principles. Therefore, B-O man beliefs his tribalistic way is inherent in the nature of things. As a result he holds tenaciously to it, and strives desperately to propitiate the world for its continuance.

At this level a seasonal, or naturally based concept of time prevails and space is perceived in an atomistic fashion. Causality is not yet perceived because man perceives that forces at work to be inherent. Here a form of existence based on myth and tradition arises, and being is a mystical phenomenon full of spirits, magic and superstition. Here the task of existence is simply to continue what it seems has enabled my tribe to be.

But here, more by chance than by design, some men achieve relative control of their spirit world through their non-explainable, elder-administered, tradition-based way of life a way of life which continues relatively unchanged until disturbed from within or without. When the established tribal way of life assures the continuance of the tribe with minimal energy expenditure by solving problems N by neurological means A, it creates the first of the general conditions necessary for movement to a new and different steady state of being. It produces excess energy in the system which puts the system in a state of readiness for change. But unless another factor, such as dissonance or challenge, comes into the field, the change does not move in the direction of some other state of being. Instead, it moves toward maximum entropy and its own demise, since it becomes overloaded with its accretion of more and more tradition, more and more ritual. If, however, when the state of readiness is achieved, dissonance enters, then this steady state of being is precipitated toward a different kind of change. This dissonance arises usually in youth, or in certain minds which are not troubled by memories of the past and are capable of newer and more lasting insights into the nature of man's being. Or it can come to the same capable minds when outsiders disturb the tribe's way of life.

When, at the B-O level, readiness for change occurs, it triggers man's insight into his existence as an individual being separate and distinct from other beings, and from his tribal compatriots as well. As he struggles, he perceives that others - other men, other animals, and even the spirits in his physical world - fight him back. So his need for survival comes to the fore.

With this change in consciousness, man becomes aware that he is aligned against predatory animals, a threatening physical universe, and other men who fight back for their established way of existence, or against him for the new way of existence he is striving to develop. Now he is not one-with-all, for he is alone in his struggle for his survival against the draconic forces of the universe. So he sets out in heroic fashion to build a way of being which will foster his individual survival.

Egocentric Existence (Third Subsistence Level)

At the egocentric level (C-P), raw, rugged, self-assertive individualism comes to the fore. This level might be termed 'Machiavellian,' for within it is all the author of The Prince considered the essence of being human. History suggests to us that the few who were able to gain their freedom from survival problems surged almost uncontrollably forward into a new way of being, and also dragged after them the tribal members unable to free themselves of the burden of stagnating tribalistic existence. History also suggests that the few became the authoritarians while the many became those who submitted. The many accepted the might-is-right of the few because such acceptance assured their survival. This was so in the past and it is still so today.

This Promethean (C-P) point of view is based on the prerogatives of the haves and the duties of the have-nots. Ultimately, when this way of life, based historically on the agricultural revolution, is established, life is seen as a continuous process with survival dependent on a controlled relationship. Fealty and loyalty, service and noblesse oblige become cornerstones of this way of life. Assured of their survival, through fief and vassalage, the haves base life of the right way to behave as their might dictates. A system develops in which each individual acts out in detail, in the interest of his own survival, how life is to be lived, but online a small number ever achieve any modicum of power and the remainder are left to submit.

Both the authoritarian and the submissive develop standards which they feel will insure them against threat, but these are very raw standards. The submissive person chooses to get away with what he can within the life style which is possible for him. The authoritarian chooses to do as he pleases. He spawns, as his raison d'tre, the rights of assertive individualism. These rights become, in time, the absolute rights of kings, the unassailable prerogatives of management, the inalienable rights of those who have achieved positions of power, and even the rights of the lowly hustler to all he can hustle. This is a world of the aggressive expression of man's lusts openly and unabashedly by the 'haves,' and more covertly and deviously by the 'have nots.'

Now man moves to the lasting security level of need and learns by avoidant learning. As he moves to the D-Q level he develops a way of life based on the conviction that there must be a reason for it all, a reason why the have shall possess so much in life yet be faced with death, and a reason why the have not is forced to endure a miserable existence. This search leads to the belief that the have and have not condition is a part of a directed design, a design of the forces guiding man and his destiny. Thus, the saintly way of life, based on one of the world's great religions or great philosophies, comes to be. Here man creates what he believes is a way for lasting peace in this life or everlasting life, a way which, it seems to him, will remove the pain of both the have and the have not. Here he seeks salvation.

Saintly Existence (Fourth Subsistence Level)

At the saintly level (D-Q), man develops a way of life based on 'Thou salt suffer the pangs of existence in this life to prove thyself worthy of later life.' This saintly form of existence comes from seeing that living in this world is not made for ultimate pleasure, a perception based on the previous endless struggle with unbridled lusts and a threatening universe. Here man perceives that certain rules are prescribed for each class of men and that these rules describe the proper way each class is to behave. The rules are the price man must pay for his more lasting life, for the peace which he seeks, the price of no ultimate pleasure while living. The measure of this worthiness is how much he has lived by the established rules. But, after security is achieved through these absolutistic rules, the time comes when some men question the price. When this happens, the saintly way of life is doomed to decay, since some men are bound to ask why they cannot have some pleasure in this life. Man then struggles on through another period of transition to another level, now slipping, now falling in the quest for his goal. When man casts aside the inhuman aspect of his saintly existence, he is again charged with excess energy because his security problems are solved; but this very solution has created the problems R, how to build a life that will offer pleasure here and now, which eventually he meets through the neurological means of system E.

Materialistic Existence (Fifth Subsistence Level)

At the materialistic level (E-R_, man strives to conquer the world by learning its secrets, rather than through raw, naked force as he did at the C-P level. He tarries long enough here to develop and utilize the objectivistic, positivistic, operationalistic, scientific method so as to provide the material ends for a satisfactory human existence in the here and now. But once assured of his own material satisfaction he finds he has created problems S, a new spiritual void in his being. He finds himself master of the objective physical world but a prime neophyte in the subjectivistic, humanistic world. He has achieved the satisfaction of a good life through his relative mastery of the physical universe, but it has been achieved at a price, the price of not being liked by other men for his callous use of knowledge for himself. He has become envied and even respected, but he is not liked. He has achieved his personal status and material existence at the expense of being rejected even by his use of neurological sub-system F, and begins man's move to his sixth form of existence.

Personalistic Existenence (Sixth Subsistence Level)

At the personalistic level (F-S), man becomes centrally concerned with peace with his inner self and in the relation of his self to the inner self of others. He becomes concerned with belonging, with being accepted, with knowing the inner side of self and other selves so harmony can come to be, so people as individuals can be at peace with themselves and thus with the world. And when he achieves this, he finds he must become concerned with more than self or other selves, because while he was focusing on the inner self to the exclusion of the external world, his outer world has gone to pot. So how he turns outward to life and to the whole, the total universe. As he does so he begins to see the problems of restoring the balance of life which has been torn asunder by his individualistically oriented, self-seeking climb up the first ladder of existence.

As man moves from the sixth or personalistic level, the level of being with self and other men, the seventh level, the cognitive level of existence, a chasm of unbelievable depth of meaning is crossed. The gap between the sixth level (the F-S level) and the seventh (the G-T level) is the gap between getting and giving, taking and contributing, destroying and constructing. It is the gap between deficiency or deficit motivation and growth or abundance motivation. It is the gap between similarity to animals and dissimilarity to animals, because only man is possessed of a future orientation.

Cognitive Existence (First Being Level)

Once we are able to grasp the meaning of passing from the level of being one with others to the cognitive level (G-T) of knowing and having to do so that all can be and can continue to be, it is possible to see the enormous differences between man and other animals. Here we step over the line which separates those needs that man has in common with other animals and those needs which are distinctly human.

Man, at the threshold of the seventh level, where so many political and cultural dissenters stand today, is at the threshold of being human. He is truly becoming a human being. He is no longer just another of nature's species. And we, in our times, in our ethical and general behavior, are just approaching this threshold, the line between animalism and humanism.

Experientialistic Existence (Second Being Level)

At the second being level, the experientialistic level (H-U), man will be driven by the winds of knowledge, and human, not godly, faith. The knowledge and competence acquired at the G-T level will bring him to the level of understanding, the H-U level. If every man leaps to this great beyond, there will be no bowing to suffering, no vassalage, no peonage. Man will move forth on the crests of his broadened humanness rather than vacillate and swirl in the turbulence of his animalistic needs. His problems, now that he has put the world back together, will be those of bringing stabilization to life once again. He will need to learn how to live so that the balance of nature is not again upset, so that individual man will not again set off on another self-aggrandizing binge. His values will be set not by the accumulated wisdom of the elders, as in the B-O system, but by the accumulated knowledge of the knowers. But here again, as always, this accumulating knowledge will create new problems and precipitate man to continue up just another step in his existential staircase.

Applying Gravess Theory to Management

Graves criticizes management training programs for trying, in all too many instances, to change managers' beliefs and ways of behaving so as to bring them more in line with the organization's pre-existing methods and beliefs. For instance, such programs may manage from a hierarchical to a team management.

These programs do not try to fit managerial development to the beliefs and ways of behaving that are those of the managing person," says Graves. They attempt, instead, to get the manager to change his beliefs. When organizations foster this kind of incongruency, they cast the manager into a severe value crisis, which often affects his performance adversely.

A second mistake of management, he says, is that it typically does not manage people the way they want to be managed. For instance, many persons like participation management but others do not, yet management has implicitly assumed that participation affects all persons in more or less the same way. In fact, people with an authoritarian cast of mind or with weak independence needs apparently are unaffected or even negatively affected by an opportunity to participate in decision-making.

Graves's research indicates that a worker with a closed personality normally prefers to be managed by the style congruent with his level of existence. If his personality is still open and growing, he prefers to be managed by a supervisor at the next higher level. For example, a closed personality at the D-Q level prefers a paternalistic form of management, while a worker with an open personality at the same level would like to be managed by E-R methods, which allow more freedom for individual initiative.

Personalistic Values Now Flower in America

Using this framework to approach current American society, we can easily see an efflorescence of personalistic (F-S) values in the popularity of such things as Salem, yoga, the encounter group, the humanistic psychology movement and participatory decision-making in management. By all these means and many others, personalistic (F-S) man endeavors to achieve self-harmony and harmony with others. These individuals do not, of course, see their striving for harmony with the human element as merely a stage they are going through, but as the ultimate, the permanent goal of all life. This short-range vision, which views the current goal as the ultimate goal of life, is shared by human beings at every level of existence for as long as they remain centralized in that particular level.

Using the Theory of Levels, we see that the so called generation gap of the recent past was in reality a values gap between the D-Q and the E-R and F-S levels of existence. For example, many of the parents of F-S youth subscribed to E-R values, which emphasize proving one's worth by amassing material wealth. To individuals operating at this level it was inconceivable that their children might reject competition for cooperation and seek inner self-knowledge rather than power, position and things. Worse yet to the E-R parents was the devotion of these young people to foreigners and minority groups who, according to E-R thinking, deserved their unfortunate condition because the were too weak or too stupid to fight for something better. Thus, the foreigners and minorities were characterized as lazy and irresponsible and the youth who defended them as lily-livered bleeding hearts.

In turn, F-S youth contributed to the confrontation because their civil disobedience and passive resistance offended their parents more than outright violence ever could have. These young people not only challenged Might (and therefore Right), but offered no new Might and Right to replace that which they mocked. Consequently, they were rightly (to the E-R mentality) called anarchists, and it was widely said that such permissiveness was wrecking the values which made America great. Of course, our hindsight now tells us that America was not, in fact, "wrecked," and today one can see a great many of the E-R parents who protested against anarchy getting in touch with themselves at Esalen and advocating theories of participative management.

Another outgrowth of the transition of our society from E-R to F-S values was the de-emphasis of technology. Technology was the principal means by which E-R man conquered the world. He did not, like his ancestor C-P man, use force alone, but rather he attempted to understand the natural laws in order to conquer men and nature. Because of the close historical association of technology with E-R values, the emerging F-S consciousness could not help but view technology as a weapon of conquest. Thus, along with rejecting conquest, F-S man rejected technology and in its place set up its exact opposite: Nature. In other words, the exploration of inner man and a return to nature (including all manner of idealized natural foods) replaced the exploitation of nature and other human beings in a quest for material wealth.

The idea of a future suffered a similar fate. American E-R man was always insistent that he had a great future, a manifest destiny somehow enhanced by never having lost a war. Therefore, F-S man, in his rebellion, was forced to throw the future into the same garbage heap as technology, erecting in its place the here and now.

Picture, if you will, F-S man seated in a yoga position, contemplating his inner self. He has completed the last theme of the subsistence movement of existence. There are no new deficiency motivations to rouse him from his meditations. In fact, he might well go on to contemplating his navel to the day of his death, if he only had some suitable arrangement to care for his daily needs. And it is quite possible for a few F-S individuals to live this way. But what happens when the majority of a population begins to arrive at the F-S level of existence? Who is left to care for their daily needs? Who is left to look after the elaborate technology which assures their survival? If we return to F-S man seated in his yoga position, we see that what finally disturbs him is the roof falling in on his head.

This roof can be called the T problems, the ecological crisis, the energy crisis, the population crisis, limits to growth, or any other such thing which is enough of a disturbance to awaken F-S man. Naturally enough, his first reaction will be that evil technology is taking over and that all the good feeling and greenery which made the Earth great is in the process of being wrecked forever. (We remember that attitude from the days when his father, E-R man, had much the same erroneous notion.) F-S man is correct in the sense that his entire way of life, his level of existence, is indeed breaking down: It must break down in order to free energy for the jump into the G-T state, the first level of being. This is where the leading edge of man is today.

The People that Drive Managers Crazy

Most people in organization in the western world are in the middle levels of existence (D-Q, E-R, and, increasingly, F-S). Managers are used to dealing with such people. Occasionally, however, a manager must deal with people at either a lower or higher level, and then his customary methods fail, Graves says.

People at the C-P level (Egocentric) are found frequently in very impoverished areas. These people exhibit the least capability to perform in a complex industrial world. When a job is available, they do not apply. If they get a job, they do not show up for work or they soon quit. While they are on the job, their habits are so erratic that little work is actually accomplished. Exasperated managers find such people unemployable. Society labels them hardcore unemployed.

To a Gravesian, people at the C-P level are employable, but they must be managed in a special way. The Graves theory holds that C-P people are driven primarily by the need to solve immediate survival problems. Applying the theory, a Gravesian manager would arrange the work situation so that the immediate survival needs of the worker are not threatened and would give him work that can be learned almost immediately.

The manager would also change the hiring requirements so that they do no threaten a C-P person. For instance, the Gravesian manager would simplify and speed up the processing of applications so that people know in minutes if they are hired and, if not hired, are taken immediately to some place where they might find jobs. He would make sure that C-P people are not supervised by self-righteous, do-good managers.

The hard-core unemployed person lives in a world of immediacy, says Graves. Often he must pay money down for almost everything he gets, and because of his immediate reactions to the crises he faces, he may be an absentee problem. To counteract these problems, a member of the organization might be assigned to administer an emergency fund to help the C-P person through difficult periods.

At the opposite extreme, managers must also deal with another group of people whom they find extremely troublesome, the G-T and H-U people. Ironically, these are among the most competent people. They possess knowledge needed to improve productivity in the organization, but often they are kept from improving productivity by ancient policies, inane practices, out-moded procedures and inappropriate managerial styles.

The G-T and H-U people want autonomy, the freedom to do their jobs the best way they know. When management requires such a person to procure permission to institute change when he sees change is needed, it stifles what he can contribute.

The sacred channels of communication seriously hamper the productivity of G-T people, who want to be able to decide when they know what to do. When he doesn't know, the G-T is motivated to seek guidance from those who do know. But a G-T employee's motivation becomes negative when he must waste time going through channels which require him to explain what does not need to be explained to people who do not need to have it explained to them.

The G-T worker reacts negatively when required to ask an administrator's approval for materials he needs in order to be productive. He reacts positively when he can tell his supervisor what he needs to do a job and when the supervisor considers that it is his job to do as his subordinate says. The G-T employee believes that he, not a superior, should make the decisions whenever he is competent to make it, and most G-T workers know that their supervisors are not competent to make the decision.

People who operate at the Being levels are typically competent regardless of their surroundings. Therefore, their productivity is not a function of lower-level incentives. Threat and coercion do not work with them, because they are not frightened people. Beyond a certain point, pecuniary motives do not affect them. Status and prestige symbols, such as fancy titles, flattery, office size, luxurious carpeting, etc., are not incentives to them. Many of them are not even driven by a need for social approval. What is important to them is that they be autonomous in the exercise of their competence, that they be allowed all possible freedom to do what needs to be done as best they can do it. In other words, they want their managers to let them improve productivity the way they know it can be improved. They do not want to waste their competency doing it management's way simply because things always have been done that way.

G-T people are becoming more prevalent, says Graves. They must do their own managing of their own work and of their own affairs. Their procedures must be their own, not those that tradition or group decision-making have established. When G-T employees are autonomous and are properly coupled with jobs that utilize their competence, one can expect optimum productivity from them.

An H-U employee does not resist coercion and restrictions in a flamboyant manner as does the G-T type, but he will avoid any relationship in which others try to dominate him. He must therefore be approached through what Graves calls "acceptance management" - management which takes him as he is and supports him in doing what he wants to do. It is useless, says Graves, to get an H-U employee to subordinate his desires to those of the organization. Instead, the organization must be fitted to him. If he cannot get the acceptance he wants, an H-U employee will quietly build a non-organizationally oriented world for himself and retire into it. He will do a passable but not excellent job. If there is no change in management and he cannot go elsewhere, he will surreptitiously work at what is important to him while putting up a front to management.

Human Progress Can Be Arrested

At this point it might be good to take a closer look at what happens when man changes levels of existence. The process itself is similar to some very basic phenomena in quantum mechanics and brain physiology, suggesting that it may in fact derive from the same laws of hierarchical organization. Basically, man must solve certain hierarchically ordered existential problems which are crucial to him in his existence. The solution of his current problem frees energy in his system and creates in turn new existential problems. (For instance, both the self-centering and other-awareness of the F-S state are necessary if the G-T problems of how life can survive are to be posted.) When new problems arise, higher order dynamic neurological systems are biochemically activated to solve them.

Will man inevitably progress, both as an individual and as a species, to higher levels of existence? Or can he become fixed at some level, even regress? The answer is that man can indeed become fixed at one level, and he can regress. A frightening example of cultural regression to the most primitive level of existence is that of the Ik tribe of Uganda which, after losing its lands, degenerated past any recognizable sign of humanity. (See anthropologist Colin Turnbull's book, The Mountain People.) Many tribes of American Indians at the end of the last century shared a like fate. Despite this, we must remember that the tendency for man to grow to higher states is always present, and may be likened to the force that enables a tree to crack boulders so that each year it can add another ring to its heartwood. Like the tree, man is most often stunted in his growth by external circumstance: poverty, helplessness, social disapproval and the like. Often, the full expression of the level of existence at which man finds himself is simply not possible. Few people, for instance, have the opportunity of fully indulging their E-R values by attempting to conquer man and nature. Consequently, man often is halted at this level and develops the lust for power which is so frequently believed to be universal in man.

Man, the species, must fully realize each level of existence if he is to rise to the next higher level, because only by pursuing his values to their limits can he recognize the higher-order existential problem that these particular values do not apply to. E-R man had to become powerful over nature in order to see that beyond the problem of power was the problem of knowing the inner self: the F-S level. He could not very well coerce or manipulate his neighbor into knowing himself. Therefore, his useless E-R values inevitably began to disintegrate as a way of life. Thus it seems that a moral breakdown regularly accompanies the transition from one level of existence to another. Man drops his current way of perceiving and behaving, and searches his cast-off levels for a way of behaving that will solve his new problem. In his frustration, E-R man may protest that he sacrificed for what he got (D-Q level) or make an appeal to law and order (C-P level) to end the demonstrations against him. All this will be to no avail because, naturally, no lower level behavior will solve his new higher-order problem. E-R man will be forced to take the first steps towards a new way of perceiving and behaving: the F-S system. With his first step he becomes F-S man, both because he is now understanding and respectful of the inner self of others rather than being powerful and manipulation, but because the greater part of his energy is now devoted to the problem of how to achieve community through personal and interpersonal experiencing.

We can therefore see that our time at each level of existence is divided between an embryonic period of identifying the values needed to solve the new existential problem, a period of implementing the values toward the solution of the problem, and a period of values breakdown following the successful solving of the problem. It is this final phase of break-down which causes such periodic dismay in society, but dissolution is necessary so that man can be free to recognize new existential problems. There is, in addition, an appearance of breakdown which results from the realization of the new values themselves, because these new values are so often the exact antithesis of the old. In that sense, the new values do represent the ultimate breakdown of the current basis of society, or of the individual's way of life.

Finally, there is a singular empirical fact associated with man's transitions from one level of existence to another. As our species moves up each step on each ladder of existence, it spends less and less time at each new level. It took literally millions of years for our ancestors to become tribalistic B-O man, while in the technologically advanced nations today man is moving from the E-R level through F-S to G-T in a scant twenty years. There is every reason to expect we will remain for a long time at the G-T level, then a shorter time at the H-U and other second ladder levels. At the G-T level, man will begin the task of subsistence again but in a new and higher order form (the survival of the human race), assuming, of course, that no external circumstances, such as a major war or other catastrophe, intervene to arrest our growth.

Levels of Existence

First Subsistence Level (A-N): Man at this level is motivated only by imperative periodic physiological needs. He seeks to stabilize his individual body functions. This level of existence is perfectly adequate to preserve the species, but it is seldom seen today except in rare instances, as in the Tasaday tribe, or in pathological cases.

Second Subsistence Level (B-O): At this level, man seeks social (tribal) stability. He strongly defends a life he does not understand. He believes that his tribal ways are inherent in the nature of things, and resolutely holds to them. He lives by totems and taboos.

Third Subsistence Level (C-P): Raw, self-assertive individualism comes to the fore at this level, and the term Machiavellian may be used. This is the level where might makes right thinking prevails. There is an aggressive expression of mans lusts, openly and unabashedly by the haves, more covertly and deviously by the have nots. Anyone dealing with the C-P type must resort to the threat of sheer naked force to get him to do anything.

Fourth Subsistence Level (D-Q): At this level, man perceives that living in this world does not bring ultimate pleasure, and also sees that rules are prescribed for each class of people. Obedience to these rules is the price that one must pay for more lasting life. D-Q people generally subscribe to some dogmatic system, typically a religion. These are the people who believe in 'living by the Ten Commandments,' obeying the letter of the law, etc. They work best within a rigid set of rules, such as army regulations.

Fifth Subsistence Level (E-R): People at the E-R level want to attain mastery of the world by learning its secrets rather than through brute force (as at the C-P level). They believe that the man who comes out on top in life fully deserves his good fortune, and those who fail are ordained to submit to the chosen few. E-R people tend to be somewhat dogmatic, but they are pragmatic, too, and when they find something that works better theyll change their beliefs.

Sixth Subsistence Level (F-S): Relating self to other human selves and to his inner self is central to man at the F-S level. Unlike the E-R people, F-S man cares less for material gain or power than he does for being liked by other people. He's ready to go along with whatever everyone else thinks is best. He likes being in groups; the danger is that he gets so wrapped up in group decision-making that little work gets done.

First Being Level (G-T): The first being level is tremendously different from the earlier subsistence levels, says Graves. Here as man, in his never-ending spiral, turns to focus once again on the external world and his use of power in relation to it, the compulsiveness and anxiousness of the subsistence ways of being are gone. Here man has a basic confidence that he, through a burgeoning intellect freed of the constriction of lower level anxieties, can put the world back together again. If not today, then tomorrow. Here he becomes truly a cooperative individual and ceases being a competitive one. Here he truly sees our interdependence with all things of this universe. And here he uses the knowledge garnered through his first-ladder trek in efforts to put his world together again, systemically.

Second Being Level (H-U): People operating in an H-U fashion have been rare in Graves's studies. Almost all of Gravess subjects who so behaved have been in their late fifties and beyond. What typifies them is a peculiar paradoxical exploration of their inner world. They treat it as a new toy with which to play. But even though playing with it, they are fully aware that they will never know what their inner selves are all about. Graves says this idea is best illustrated by a poem of D. H. Lawrence, Terra Incognita.

Summary Table from the Article (click for .pdf version)

Man Now Faces Most Difficult Transition

The present moment finds our society attempting to negotiate the most difficult, but at the same time the most exciting, transition the human race has faced to date. It is not merely a transition to a new level of existence but the start of a new movement in the symphony of human history. The future offers us, basically, three possibilities: (1) Most gruesome is the chance that we might fail to stabilize our world and, through successive catastrophes regress as far back as the Ik tribe has. (2) Only slightly less frightening is the vision of fixation in the D-Q/E-R/F-S societal complex. This might resemble George Orwell's 1984 with its tyrannic, manipulative government glossed over by a veneer of humanitarian sounding doublethink and moralistic rationalizations, and is a very real possibility in the next decade. (3) The last possibility is that we could emerge into the G-T level and proceed toward stabilizing our world so that all life can continue.

If we succeed in the last alternative, we will find ourselves in a very different world from what we know now and we will find ourselves thinking in a very different way. For one thing, we will no longer be living in a world of unbridled self-expression and self-indulgence or in a world of reverence for the individual, but in one whose rule is: Express self, but only so that all life can continue. It may well be a world which, in comparison to this one, is rather restrictive and authoritarian, but this will not be the authority of forcibly taken, God-given or self-serving power; rather it will be the authority of knowledge and necessity. The purpose of G-T man will be to bring the earth back to equilibrium so that life upon it can survive, and this involves learning to act within the limits inherent in the balance of life. We may find such vital human concerns as food and procreation falling under strict regulation, while in other respects society will be free not only from any form of compulsion but also from prejudice and bigotry. Almost certainly it will be a society in which renewable resources play a far greater role than they do today: wood, wind and tide may be used for energy; cotton and wool for clothing, and possibly even bicycles and horses for short trips. Yet while more naturalistic than the world we know today, at the same time the G-T world will be unimaginably more advanced technologically; for unlike F-S man, G-T man will have no fear of technology and will understand its consequences. He will truly know when to use it and when not to use it, rather than being bent on using it whenever possible as E-R man has done.

The psychological keynote of a society organized according to G-T thinking will be freedom from inner compulsiveness and rigidifying anxiety. G-T man, who exists today in ever increasing numbers, does not fear death, nor God, nor his fellow man. Magic and superstition hold no sway over him. He is not mystically minded, though he lives in the most mysterious of mystic universes. The G-T individual lives in a world of paradoxes. He knows that his personal life is absolutely unimportant, but because it is part of life there is nothing more important in the world. G-T man enjoys a good meal or good company when it is there, but doesn't miss it when it is not. He requires little, compared to his E-R ancestor, and gets more pleasure from simple things than F-S man thinks he (F-S man) gets. G-T man knows how to get what is necessary to his existence and doesn't not want to waste time getting what is superfluous. More than E-R man before him, he knows what power is, not to create and use it, but he also knows how limited is its usefulness. That which alone commands his unswerving loyalty, and in whose cause he is ruthless, is the continuance of life on this earth.

The G-T way of life will be so different from any that we have known up to now that its substance is very difficult to transmit. Possibly the following will help: G-T man will explode at what he does not like, but he will not be worked up or angry about it. He will get satisfaction out of doing well but will get no satisfaction from praise for having done so. Praise is anathema to him. He is egoless, but terribly concerned with the rightness of his own existence. He is detached from and unaffected by social realities, but has a very clear sense of their existence. In living his life he constantly takes into account his personal qualities, his social situation, his body, and his power, but they are of no great concern to him. They are not terribly important to him unless they are terribly important to you. He fights for himself but is not defensive. He has no anxiety or irrational doubt but he does feel fear; he seeks to do better, but is not ambitious. He will strive to achieve- but through submission, not domination. He enjoys the best of life, of sex, of friends, and comfort that is provided, but he is not dependent on them.

Originally posted here:

article in The Futurist - Dr. Clare W. Graves

Disaster Girl’s – The Disaster Caster: Future Maps

These are the Futurists Maps of the World. I have scoured much of the internet for quite some time now compiling these maps, and I know they are the favorite topic of my readers. This may not be all of them, but from what I found while searching the internet, this is the most you will find in one place- neatly grouped together. I hope you guys enjoy this, and check back in the future because if I find more I will add them!

Also, this cool tool provided by Alex Tingle is awesome! An interactive flood map, based on where you are, that allows you to look at what the land around you would look like with a 60 meter sea level rise! CLICK HERE FOR THE INTERACTIVE FLOOD MAP

Two questions came to mind when putting this together.. 1. Why are the majority of them just the USA? Is that a coincidence? ..and.. 2. Why do they all look so eerily similar?

*I do not own any of these images. *Please comment if you have more information about origins/back stories/unidentified map clarifications, etc!

View post:

Disaster Girl's - The Disaster Caster: Future Maps

33 Dramatic Predictions For 2030 – Futurist Speaker

Humanity will change more in the next 20 years than in all of human history.

By 2030 the average person in the U.S. will have 4.5 packages a week delivered with flying drones. They will travel 40% of the time in a driverless car, use a 3D printer to print hyper-individualized meals, and will spend most of their leisure time on an activity that hasnt been invented yet.

The world will have seen over 2 billion jobs disappear, with most coming back in different forms in different industries, with over 50% structured as freelance projects rather than full-time jobs.

Over 50% of todays Fortune 500 companies will have disappeared, over 50% of traditional colleges will have collapsed, and India will have overtaken China as the most populous country in the world.

Most people will have stopped taking pills in favor of a new device that causes the body to manufacture its own cures.

Space colonies, personal privacy, and flying cars will all be hot topics of discussion, but not a reality yet.

Most of todays top causes, including climate change, gay liberation, and abortion, will all be relegated to little more than footnotes in Wikipedia, and Wikipedia itself will have lost the encyclopedia wars to an upstart company all because Jimmy Wales was taken hostage and beheaded by warring factions in the Middle East over a controversial entry belittling micro religions.

Our ability to predict the future is an inexact science. The most accurate predictions generally come from well-informed industry insiders about very near term events.

Much like predicting the weather, the farther we move into the future, the less accurate our predictions become.

So why do we make them?

In the segments below, Ill make a series of 33 provocative predictions about 2030, and how different life will be just 17 years in the future.

I will also explain why predictions are important, even when they are wrong.

Why Understanding the Future is Important

Ignorance is a valuable part of the future. If we knew the future we would have little reason to vote in an election, host a surprise party, or start something new.

Once a future is known, we quickly lose interest in trying to influence it. For this reason, our greatest motivations in life come from NOT knowing the future.

So why, as a futurist, do I spend so much time thinking about the future?

Very simply, since no one has a totally clear vision of what lies ahead, we are all left with degrees of accuracy. Anyone with a higher degree of accuracy, even by only a few percentage points, can achieve a significant competitive advantage.

The Power of Prediction

If I make the prediction that By 2030 over 90% of all crimes will be solved through video and other forms of surveillance, a forecast like that causes several things to happen.

First, you have to decide if you agree that a certain percent of crimes will be solved that way. If so, it forces you to think about how fast the surveillance industry is growing, how invasive this might be, and whether privacy concerns might start to shift current trends in the other direction.

More importantly, it forces you to consider the bigger picture, and whether this is a desirable future. If it reaches 90%, how many police, judges, and lawyers will be out of a job as a result of this? Will this create a fairer justice system, a safer society, or a far scarier place to live?

Please keep this in mind as we step through the following predictions.

33 Dramatic Predictions

Final Thoughts

Reading through the prediction above you will likely have experiences a number of thoughts ranging from agreement, to amusement, to confusion, to total disagreement.

As with most predictions, some will be correct and others not. But the true value in this list will come from giving serious consideration to each of them and deriving your own conclusions.

If you were expecting me to aggressively defend all these predictions, then this column will certainly disappoint you. It has been a lifetime journey for me to formulate my thoughts about the future, but there are far too many variables to build a defensible case for any of them.

That said, I would love to hear your thoughts. Whats missing, too aggressive, or simply misguided? Sometimes my crystal ball is far too fuzzy, so Id love to hear what ideas come to mind.

ByFuturist Thomas Frey

Author ofCommunicating with the Future the book that changes everything

.

.

Read this article:

33 Dramatic Predictions For 2030 - Futurist Speaker

The Futurist: Amazing Future Science & Technology

Physicists are pretty great at smashing particles such as protons and lead ions together at mind-boggling speeds in particle colliders like the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), but particles are only half the story when it comes to understanding the tiniest interactions that govern the fundamental workings of the Universe. There are also interactions between particles []

Hyperloop Technology A Video featuring the first full-scale demonstration of Hyperloop Technology

Technological Inventions Inc the First drone with virtual reality goggles as well as a mug that regulates the temperature of its contents. Also the only smart key you will ever need and a smart indoor ecosystem that allows you to grow anything with ease. Simplify the way you store and organize your photos by time, []

Here is an amazing new Motorcycle that can turn into aJet Ski in under 5 seconds at the touch of a Button

For the first time, researchers have created a type of stretchy, polymer film that theyre claiming acts like a second skin barrier layer. Thats a big deal, because it means it could one day be used to protect us from sunburn and treat conditions like eczema, but what people are getting really excited about is []

Scientific discovery doesnt get anywhere without collaboration. Even Einstein knew that one genius locked in a room cant solve all the mysteries of the Universe. So when NASA does a patent dump, and allows scientists and engineers from all over the world to get a look at its incredible research, its an awesome thing. This []

See the article here:

The Futurist: Amazing Future Science & Technology

Futurist | Inside Jobs

What does the future hold? Without a magic ball, no one truly knows. And yet, businesses the world over count on a certain degree of premonition when they plan out a product unveiling two years into the future, or schedule changes in hardware or infrastructure within the next decade. A Futurist is the professional combination of Mathematician, Scientist, and Fortune Teller who offers predictions of what the future holds.

As a Futurist, you might have a background in just about anything. Whether youve been a Lawyer, a Landscaper, or a Librarian, youve acquired the skills of reading between the lines, understanding what people want, and forecasting behaviors.

You earn the title of Futurist when you tap into that understanding and begin to draw conclusions about how customers will act five or more years into the future. Will they go back to brick-and-mortar shopping or rely even more heavily on the Internet?

While your skills benefit pharmaceutical companies planning to promote a new line of medications and toy manufacturers seeking the new generation of electronics, you also promote a better understanding of important societal issues. For example, you might forecast gas consumption, or crunch the most reliable data to calculate up-and-coming economic powerhouses, key players in the political world, or world-altering weather changes.

Read more from the original source:

Futurist | Inside Jobs

| Jim Carroll- Futurist, Trends & Innovation Keynote Speaker

A Sample of Jim's Recent & Upcoming Engagements PGA - Professional Golf Association

94th Annual General Meeting Boston, Massachusetts

Leadership Meeting Athens, Greecet

Innovation Thought Leadership Event Greenbelt, Maryland

CSC Executive Exchange St Andrews, Scotland

Leadership Meeting Pasadena, California

"Putting Capital To Work" Event New York, NY

Annual Executive Conference Austin, Texas

HIPO Leadership Meeting San Francisco, California

Global IT Meeting San Francisco, California

World Energy/Utilities Conference San Francisco, California

Leadership Innovation Symposium Albequerque, New Mexico

ERA Connect Annual Conference Austin, Texas

Client Investment Symposium Baltimore, Maryland

Global Conference New Orleans, Louisiana

Global Payments Conference Phoenix, Arizona

100th Annual Conference and Exhibition Gaylord, Texas

Robotic Automation Conference Davenport, Iowa

5th Annual Program / Project Leadership Kickoff Galveston, Texas

Executive HR Leadership Conference Washington, DC

Worldwide Operators Congress Toronto, Ontario

CITE Higher Education Leaders Conference Denver, Colorado

Multi-Unit Franchise Conference Las Vegas, Nevada

Annual CEO Summit Ojai, California

"An outstanding presentation for an industry and association that falls on its traditions so often. We learned that our tradition should not be something that holds us back, but rather the launching pad for innovation for the future. Thanks Jim for your thought provoking presentation!"

- 94th PGA of America Annual General Meeting

"On behalf of the entire Innovative Technology Partnerships Office, thank you for your engaging and thought-provoking presentation at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. From the feedback we have received, the event was a great success. Thank you for sharing your insight and expertise with us!"

- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

"We were extremely pleased with Jims presentation... the content was bang-on and would hopefully prompt people to think about the rapidity of change going on in our world!. Jims storytelling approach really helps to get his points across! He did a great job!"

- Walt Disney Company

"We thought Jim was amazing - just the positive message we wanted to leave folks with.

- T. Rowe Price

People were really excited and energetic. I got comments about your presentation and the day as a whole like home run and perfect. Your presentation was policy in a thought provoking way - and with the focus on the future and technology, the Denver Chamber of Commerce will surely see this as a great jumping off point to their broader transportation conversation.

- Colorado Transportation Summit

"Jim Carroll recently presented at Lockheed Martins Executive HR Leadership conference. His content was very provocative, fascinating, and relevant. Ive embedded a couple of his nuggets into my operating model

- Lockheed Martin

"Many thanks for your presentation, 7 Things You Need to Do Right Now: Aligning the Fast Future to Your Current Strategy It couldn't have been more energy filled and dynamic to start the conference out on the right foot. It was exactly what the audience wanted and needed to hear. The feedback from all attendees was excellent."

- VIBE Conference, Las Vegas

"Bringing Jim into our MLC Sales Conference in Sydney through a fibre optic line was truly incredible. The key note session Jim delivered was on the money, he exceeded my expectations."

- MLC National Australia Bank

"Jim is one of the best speakers we had. He had excellent information that our attendees could take home and incorporate it into their plans immediately. He also incorporated our messages into his presentation that helped localize the information for our group. Highly recommended!"

- Illinois Bureau of Tourism.

"After seeing Jim speak at another conference, I was so motivated by his presentation, I invited Jim to speak at a conference for my organization. Another home run! Powerful, articulate, thought provoking and energetic! Jim's delivery on the importance of staying abreast of rapidly changing trends truly can assist in changing the way we do business!"

- US Navy, Air Force, Marine Child Youth Program Conference

"... your talk hit just the right note.....I did have several people ask me if they could get a copy of your presentation as well as many who noted that the programming was fantastic and gave them a lot to think about."

-Consumer Electronics Association CEO Summit

"Thank you for an outstanding opening keynote for the 10th Anniversary Opportunities Conference: you received a 100% approval rating which has only been achieved 2 other times in our 10 year history!"

-Opportunities Conference Organizer

We were extremely pleased with Jims presentation.. the content was great and would hopefully prompt people to think about the rapidity of change going on in our world! You were superb! As we make changes your message could not have come at a better time. This group likes tradition but unfortunately that often gets in the way of moving forward. Thank you again for reminding us that our greater responsibility is to the future!"

- US National Recreation and Parks Association

I have been working with Jim for the past four years, and, without question, he is one of the most dynamic speakers and professional partners Ive ever come across. Our audiences (internal and external) love him, and he works wonderfully with our customers. .Im willing to bet your first experience will lead to many, many more, as it has with SAP. I wish you the best with him.book him before someone else does!

- SAP

Healthcare in 2021? What will we be doing in 10 years time? Well, according to Jim Carroll, keynote speaker for the opening session, definitely not what we're doing today! He presented an invigorating view of what our healthcare systems could be looking like and it's up to us to decide how we get there. We'll be accepting his challenge to take three scary ideas away and think about how we can make them work, rather than the reasons why they won't. The poll4 system was fun and it was definitely the first time we'd been asked to turn our phones on during a presentation!

- International Society of Medical Publication Professionals

Read more from the original source:

| Jim Carroll- Futurist, Trends & Innovation Keynote Speaker

Association of Professional Futurists – Home

The Association of Professional Futurists is a global community of professional futurists committed to leadership and excellence in the futures field. Our members provide unique perspectives to help people anticipate and influence the future.

The APF aims to set the standard of excellence for foresight professionals. Members include futurists from businesses, governments and non-profits, consulting futurists, educators, and students in futures studies.

We meet regularly, host active electronic discussions among practitioners, provide professional development programs, recognize excellence in futures works, and offer a rich body of ideas and information about the future for the public.

For members: please see further instructions about the new website on the Community page (navigation at left, sign-in required).

Excellence in Leadership Awards 2015

The APF recognizes Maree Conway and Ken Harris with Excellence in Leadership awards for their extraordinary service. Certificates were presented at the Annual Reception and Awards Presentation in San Francisco on 25 July 2015.

Maree Conway, Thinking Futures, took APFs membership data from an unruly mess of several lists and incomplete information to a full-fledged database that links profiles and engagement to financial and membership for each member. This fully integrated system enables members to maintain and access their own data. Furthermore, Maree nurtured the program through the first five years, communicating with members and managing their questions and concerns. Marees work put the APF on firm footing as a proficiently-run organization.

Ken Harris, The Consilience Group and Tech Cast, founded the Most Significant Futures Works awards program in 2007 which recognizes excellent publications in professional futures works. Initially a virtual book club, under Kens leadership, MSFW grew to an annual program with awards in three categories: methods, content, and images of the future. Ken managed heated differences with smooth leadership, practicality and evidence. This award was presented posthumously to Kens widow. Ken is deeply missed in the APF community.

The Board of the APF would like to thank the leaders, including committee and task force chairs and members for their important contributions in developing a more relevant, robust Association of Professional Futurists.

If you have questions,

2015 Student Recognition Program (SRP) Awards

The theme of the APF 2015 AnnualGatheringwas the future oflearning. The event featured outstanding speakers, workshops, installations, andplay. Participants explored majorforces aligned to disrupt the world offormal and informal learning over the coming decade.

For those who attended: thanks for coming and joining us as we deconstructed and remixed these myriad challenges and opportunities and did what we do best: generate not just future scenarios but ground-breaking concepts that could change the world.

For APF pro futurists who could not attend: all of the sessions were video taped and will be made available soon. Be watching for links and access instructions via the listserv and email notification.

Here's the Atlanta Gathering Learning Remix webpage.

Contact Joe Tankersley (joe@uniquevisions.net) with questions.

image: Atlanta GA Chuck Koehler flickrcc

2015 San Francisco July 24-26

Professional Development Seminar--SOLD OUT!THE FUTURE OF WORK

APF's professional futurists explored what the changing future of work means to us, in an interactive experience with knowledgeable members of our community and outside speakers.

When: Friday July 24th, 8:00 a.m. to 3:30 p.m. (in time to return to WFS Conference Hotel for 4:30 pm key note speaker.)

Breakfast: 8:00 a.m., Workshop Cafe, 180 Montgomery Street (on way to General Assembly.)

Working sessions: General Assembly's library, 225 Bush Street, 5th floor

Happy Hour: Thursday July 23rd, 5:30 - 7:30, Klyde's Wine Bar, 386 Geary

APF Town Hall, Saturday lunch - Members Only

When: Saturday, July 25, 2015, 12:30 to 1:50 pm

Where: Contemporary Jewish Museum

When: Saturday, July 25, 2015 approximately 6-8pm

Send questions to Verne Wheelwright or Cindy Frewen.

Other APF Events in San Francisco

We had a limited number of copies of a special edition of Compass created for the WFS conference at the Professional Development Day. Saturday evening at the Annual Reception, and at the WFS bookstore.

APF Members Presenting at WFS San Francisco: A Guide

Each year the Association of Professional Futurists puts together a list of its members who will be speaking at the World Future Societys annual conference. APF members have provided some of the best presentations at WFS each year, and this year looks to be no different!

Here's the Guide (pdf).

APF members presenting at WFS

This year featured 38 presenters from the APF in wide variety of sessions.

Rosa Alegria Joel Barker

Clem Bezold Alisha Bhagat

Jim Burke Stuart Candy

Maree Conway Adam Cowart

Cornelia Daheim Cindy Frewen

Thomas Frey Joyce Gioia

Fabienne Goux-Baudiment Linda Groff

Bob Harrison Glen Hiemstra

Andy Hines Katie King

James Lee Zhan Li

Richard Lum Mathew Manos

Wendy McGuinness Sam Miller

Katherine Prince Richard Yonck

Herb Rubenstei Omar Sahi

Yvette Montero Salvatico Wendy Schultz

Gray Scott Frank Spencer

Jeff Suderman Jason Swanson

John Sweeney Aubrey Yee

Terry Collins Alisha Baghat

APF Virtual Gathering - June 2015

This V-Gathering was inspired by a conversation on the APF Listserv on the Apple Car and other driverless vehicles. A half hour of ideas by professional futurists was followed by a hosted exchange with attendees.

When:June 02, 2015 1:00 PM - 2:00 PM EDT/US (13.00 New York)

Speakers:Paul Graham Raven, John Jackson, Cindy Frewen

The well attended event explored global futures of transportation, focused on self-driving cars and why Apple and Silicon Valley is interested in automobiles. Paul brought a policy perspective, Cindy discussed design and user experience, and John talked about Apple's role and the potential of luxury vehicles. The idea of cars as a third place and other alternative forms of transportation turn out to be very freeing for people. A number of links and statistics were shared by attendees. The lively discussion surely could have extended for another hour. Thanks to all who came and offered their expert knowledge. Thanks to Jim for organizing so well despite his flooded home from Houston storms.

Send questions to V-Gatherings Chair/HostJim Breaux.

2015 LONDON GATHERINGS

Last Friday London Gatheringsoccur in the Spring and Fall with three or so events during each series, six total per year.

For questions, contactAndrew Curry.

The second APF event on the 24th April (13:30 for a 14:00 start) was a collaboration between the Club of Amsterdam and the Association of Professional Futurists.This session focused on the human aspect of the future of cities. The soft architecture of cities.People in cities seem to have more in common with each other than with people living in their own country outside of the city. Are we watching a deep global change in values and understanding, led by the boom in city living?

For questions, contactNick Price.

Last Friday London Gathering:

Arctic Futures and the Postnormal Perspective

When: 30 May 2014 430 pm to 700 pm

Where: The Futures Company

Recap

Guy Yeomans, UK based futures consultant specialising in the Arctic, opened up the topical part of the session. Guy took on the hard job of translating a complex picture into a pragmatic primer for the subsequent postnormal futures session. He made good use of visualisations and graphics to avoid getting stuck in detail. This content seemed to be engaging for both members and non-members.

John Sweeney, from the University of Hawaii, then lead a two part presentation. First introducing the concept of postnormal futures and the three tomorrows method which went down well particularly with the APF members. Including hard futures content is good for that audience section. John then went into bridging the postnormal framework into the Arctic futures ground Guy had set up.

The third section was group work in three groups. Guy and John had some Arctic Futures scenario seeds for the groups to build out. Each group created a postcard visualisation of their possible future. This new format for APF events creates an intimate, high level learning dialogue for members and visiting futurists.

2014 Gathering: Convergence in San Francisco March 31 - April 2

A fantastic time, among the best APF gatherings, which is saying a great deal. Thanks to Art Kleiner, Chris Ertel, Nancy Murphy, and Jason Tester (IFTF) for their excellent presentations.

If you have questions, please contactAndy Hines,MSFW Chair.

2013 Most Significant Futures Works Awards

Emerging Fellows 2013-14 Speak Out#4futr

Check out the weekly blog posts by the 2013-14 Emerging Fellows. You will find exciting, thoughtful ideas about futures by new futurists who are still discovering her or his way into the field. They ponder deep ideas about their own futures, chase contagious futures, and question the direction of the field as well as other futures.

Simeon Spearman writes about "Big Data":

"My initial answer to the challenge of dogmatically data-driven deciders is to reiterate that at the end of the day, our value as futurists is to provide the second derivative perspective, or rather providing insights on how the rates of change are changing."

2013 Pro Dev Seminar Friday July 19#apfpd13

Here's the agenda (pdf).

At the APF annual reception Saturday eve July 20, 2013, 5:30 to 7:30 pm, over fifty people convened at the Firehouse in Chicago. The new Emerging Fellows and winners of the Student Recognition Project and the Most Important Futures Works winners were announced. Terry Grim, Foresight Alliance/University of Houston received a first place award for Category 1: "Advance the methodology and practice of foresight and futures studies" for her article in JFS on the Foresight Maturity Model. Heather Schlegel and Jim Breaux were recognized for their exemplary student work. Emerging Fellow Bridgette Engeler-Newberry received her certificate. Congratulations to all!

Town Hall Exchange

APF leaders held a round table discussion on the Future of Foresight Project and the APF's next Strategic Plan 2014 - 2016.The Future of Foresight essays are posted in the community section (members only, sign in required). and the current Strategic Plan (2011- 2013) being implemented is here.

At the 2013 APF Gathering, an historic number of people experienced one of the best gatherings filled with fantastic ideas, fun, and community.

Wendy Schultz said,

"a terrific and stimulating three days, exactly what I expect of our colleagues. The visits to IST and ADL were interesting and useful, and the Saturday workshop with Starr Long and Mary Flanagan enlightening and fun."

Special thanks to all our speakers and the Gatherings Team!

Image: Wikipedia

Visit link:

Association of Professional Futurists - Home