PUBLISHED: 15:36 24 August 2020 | UPDATED: 15:36 24 August 2020

Adrian Zorzut

A general view of the Humber Bridge, Hull; Anna Gowthorpe

PA Archive/PA Images

Several sites across Hull have been identified to hold Britains fifth Brexit lorry park to deal with congestion caused by the UKs exit from the EU.

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According to Hull Live, an area 17 acres large on Humberside is being allocated out by ministers as an inland port and would receive funding from the 500 million set aside to boost Britains border infrastructure after Brexit.

Although the official site is yet to be named publicly, there are rumours it could be built in the Humber Bridge car park, which is currently being used as a drive-in coronavirus testing station.

This comes as four sites in Kent have been mapped out to host lorry parks aimed at easing traffic travelling through Dover port.

MORE: #FarageGarage trends on Twitter after plans revealed for secret Brexit lorry park in Kent

In a letter, the paymaster general Penny Mordaunt said: Intense engagement is now underway with ports and we are beginning to speak to local authorities about potential inland sites.

I would like to emphasise that final decisions on inland sites will not be made until we have established the extent of new infrastructure capacity at ports.

An assessment by the Humber Local Resilience Forum two years ago into the regional impacts of Brexit found that roads and ports would be overwhelmed by congestion as a result of a Brexit, regardless of a deal being struck or not, and identified two areas for lorry holding centres.

In July, Hull and Goole Port Health Authority expressed dismay at the governments lack preparedness for Brexit while one Labour councillor described it as a shambles.

Almost all of the 150 million kilos of food imported through the Humber ports every year destined for wholesalers and retailers across the UK come from the EU.

Labours Brexit spokesperson Rachel Reeves said the creation of a vast emergency lorry park in Kent to hold up to 10,000 vehicles waiting to travel to Europe would be bad news for British businesses who have already gone through a terrible time.

Reeves said: The prime minister said just a couple of months ago that a trade deal would be secured by the end of July. Well we are now at the end of July, we dont have a trade deal, all we have is a blueprint for a giant lorry park in the middle of Kent.

She warned that businesses were headed for serious frictions over trade with our nearest neighbours.

It is bad news for the British businesses who have already gone through a terrible time in the last few months, she added.

Almost four years after its creation The New European goes from strength to strength across print and online, offering a pro-European perspective on Brexit and reporting on the political response to the coronavirus outbreak, climate change and international politics. But we can only rebalance the right wing extremes of much of the UK national press with your support. If you value what we are doing, you can help us by making a contribution to the cost of our journalism.

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Site in Hull being considered for new Brexit 'lorry park' - The New European

Pound (GBP) Tumbles on Brexit and Unemployment Concerns

The Pound (GBP) nosedived at the end of last weeks session amidst renewed Brexit jitters. Sterling slipped against the Euro and the Pound US Dollar exchange rate plunged below $1.31.

This followed the conclusion of the latest round of UK-EU Brexit talks on Friday, with the EUs chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, warning that the continued deadlock makes a post-Brexit trade deal unlikely.

Added to this, concerns rose over employment in the UK as the latest PMI figures highlighted the growing pace of job cuts, despite business activity in August expanding at its fastest pace in seven years.

In the absence of any notable economic releases, the Pound may struggle for direction this week, particularly if the focus remains on Brexit.

The Euro (EUR) also found itself on the defensive on Friday, following the publication of the Eurozones own PMI releases.

Investors shunned the single currency as Augusts preliminary figures printed well below expectations and indicated the Eurozones economic recovery may have stalled amid Europes coronavirus resurgence.

Looking ahead, the Euro could face additional pressure through the coming week, should Europes coronavirus situation continue to deteriorate.

The US Dollar (USD) was the top performer at the end of last weeks session as USD demand rose in response to some positive US data releases. Added to this, weakness in GBP and the Euro sent the Pound US Dollar exchange rate plummeting, while EUR/USD dropped below $1.18.

US PMI figures and existing home sales both printed above expectations on Friday, allowing the Greenback to gather strength and close the week on a high.

Coming up this week, we may see the US Dollar extend this bullish momentum if worries over global growth see investors continue to favour the safe-haven currency.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) rallied on Friday, being carried higher on the back of some impressive domestic retail sales figures.

Sales growth soared by a record 23.7% in July as more lockdown restrictions were eased, which cheered CAD investors on hopes this points to a strong rebound in the economy in the third quarter.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded flatly during todays Asian session, with concerns over the recent resurgence in global coronavirus cases offset by hopes for blood transfusion treatments in the US.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) opens this week on the back foot, edging lower in early trade this morning after New Zealands latest retail sales figures revealed a larger-than-expected contraction of sales in the second quarter.

Excerpt from:

GBP/USD Exchange Rate Nosedives as EU Warns Brexit Deal 'Unlikely': Today's Currency News and Forecast - TorFX News - TorFX News

(Pixabay)

Mark this one down under you dont say!. The UKs Digital Services Tax, introduced back in April to get tough on the likes of Amazon, may be scrapped in the face of anger from the White House at a time when Brexit trade deals are on the table.

According to reports over the weekend, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak wants to drop the tax, based on 2% of national revenues generated by large digital companies,which is increasingly seen in Westminster as more trouble than its worth.

The official line from the Treasury in response to these reports has been mealy-mouthed:

Weve been clear its a temporary tax that will be removed once an appropriate global solution is in place and we continue to work with our international partners to reach that goal.

Given that the US walked away from those multi-national negotiations in June, such a global solution is a long way away and the UK - and others - will have to make decisions about their intentions far sooner than a viable face-saving international option is on offer.

As weve said all along, the UKs posturing over clamping down on tax avoidance by major digital services providers was unlikely to survive for a number of reasons. It looks good politically to be issuing demands to largely US companies over paying - or not paying - their fair share of taxes, but in practical terms, enforcing collection isnt as simple as the legislators rhetoric makes it sound.

The UK took the decision to impose its own national taxation based on local revenues after a collective attempt by the European Union (EU), led by France, crashed and burned. In common with a number of other states, the UK set its own rate - and in common with other states, attracted anger from US politicians who saw this as an attack on American firms operating in the EU.

That would be the case under any US administration, but the current government in Washington was absolutely the worst possible one to pick such a fight with. With Donald Trump running on a MAGA ticket to try to secure re-election as President, foreign efforts to steal tax revenue from American coffers was only ever going to have one result. France, which is also going its own way, has been threatened with a cheese and wine war; with the UK, theres an even bigger stick with which to beat - Brexit.

With a no deal Brexit now looking increasingly likely, the UKs need to strike a trade deal with Washington is all the more critical and the Digital Services Tax is frankly just in the way. Chlorinated chicken and hormone-pumped beef may still be problems to be dealt with, but quietly dropping the tax plans is a concession that can be easily done. A post-Brexit Britain also wants to be able to attract US tech firms to increase their presence in the UK, necessitating moves to make it more attractive rather than less to expand operations there.

Theres also another complicating factor - COVID-19. The pandemic and the resulting spend, spend, spend response from the UK Treasury to try to limit the damage to the economy has left the country with 2 trillion of debt - and counting. Against that, the 500 million that the Digital Services Tax was (very) optimistically predicted to generate per annum looks like a drop in the ocean.

Apart from the expediency of quietly stepping away from the new tax, theres another political consideration to be factored in - how voters are likely to react to their digital services becoming more expensive.

Amazon, true to form, has announced that it will be passing on additional costs to its customers on the ground. So, on the one hand, politicos can get positive headlines for clamping down on tax avoidance. On the other hand, they can get less positive headlines as a result of their constituents having to pay more for their Amazon deliveries.

Any thesis that Amazon might be shamed into absorbing the tax liability has rapidly been exposed as the political naivety it always was. The firm has told businesses in the UK that it will be raising fees by two percent from September, a deadline that may go some way to explain the scuttlebutt this weekend about dropping the tax plans. The firm says:

While the legislation was being passed, and as we continued our discussions with the government to encourage them to take an approach that would not impact our selling partners, we absorbed this increase. Now the legislation has passed, we will be increasing referral fees, fulfilment by Amazon fees, monthly storage fees and multi-channel fulfilment fees by 2 per cent to reflect this additional cost.

Some others have taken a more conciliatory stance so far, most notably eBay, which has written to its sellers in the UK to promise that there will be no new costs passed on:

eBay is one of the marketplaces which will have to pay the new tax and a lot of you have asked whether we at eBay will be passing on this tax to our sellers in the form of new fees.We wanted to reassure you that we wont do that, so you will not be charged additional new fees as a result of this tax.

But theres no sign that the likes of Facebook, Google or other major digital services providers are set to take a similar stance

Basic lesson - if youre going to posture and pick fights with US tech firms for the benefit of some domestic good PR, make sure youre (a) willing and (b) able to follow through. And try not to do it when you desperately need to strike a deal with the US government

Read the rest here:

Can the UK's 'Amazon tax' survive Brexit expediency, MAGA electioneering and threats to bump up costs to consumers? - Diginomica

In this fine review of an important new book, Ireland and the EU Post Brexit by Ray Bassett, retired Irish civil servant Michael Clarke writes that the key Irish decision was the refusal to work with the UK on border issues and to put Irelands future in the hands of the Brussels institutions, the very people who inflicted so much damage on the Republic and its people during the bailout. It was a misjudgement of epic proportions.

Ray Bassetts book Ireland and the EU PostBrexit is a shot in thearm for anyone in Ireland who is concerned about the direction of our European policy, but will also be welcomed in theUK, which bore the brunt of some extraordinarily ignorantand vitriolic comment from Irish sources during and after the Brexit referendum. If such commentary had been made in reverse about Ireland by British commentators, it would, as Bassett points out, have been condemned in Ireland as racist. Bassetts book demonstrates that there are many Irish people who are deeply concerned about our direction of travel as far as the EU is concerned but reminds us that when the people of Ireland twice declined to approve EU treaties their decisions were rejected by the Governments of the day. The EU and democracy dontgo hand in hand.

One of the most extraordinary features of Irelands membership of the EU is the amnesia of the establishment today about the way the Republicwas treated by the European Commission and the European Central Bank during the Great Recession in contrast to the assistance provided by the Irish diaspora, which Bassett describes in passages that are very moving. UK readers of the book will note the assistance provided by Mark Carney, a member of the diaspora, when he was Governor of the Bank of Canada. UKreaders might well ask themselves how a country with a history of fighting for its freedom rolled over, like a puppy, in the face of intimidation, bullying and downright aggression from the EU and from its institutions. The reason is this: the Irish political class and the Irish establishment generally cannot admit to some very bad policy decisions on Europe, in particular the decision to join the euro, the worst policy decision made by the Irish State since 1922, as to do so would invalidate their whole lives and careers.

It took great courage on the part of Ray Bassett to write this book as the Republic is effectively a one-partystate without concentration camps (people are sent to a very nasty purdah instead). We have never had a real change of government since 1922. Every head of government has been a conservative. That does not make for healthy politics.

Part I covers the background and reason for the book and why the author, a former Irish ambassador, felt he had to step out of the shadows to write it. That is never an easy thing for a retired civil servant todo and is an exceptionally difficult thing to do in a state that is very intolerant of criticism in certain areas of public policy. As Basset points out, when he began writing for Irelands (Sunday) Business Post, efforts were made behind the scenes by well-known figures to prevent his articles being published because he opposed Government policy on the EU. That might strike a British reader as outrageous but it is par for the course here. I was surprised and delighted that he managed to get anything published but he did, and slowly but surely some of the arguments he made were picked up by other journalists. I should mention here that one of the benefits of Brexit (for a seriously weakened culture of democracy here) was that the debate for and against the EU raged in the British media, which are all consumed here. Indeed, for people here under the age of perhaps forty or fifty, the Brexit debate was the first time they had ever been exposed to any level of meaningful and sustained debate about the pros and cons of EU membership. It is not uncommon to meet people under a certain age in the Republic who have never heard a euro-critical word in their lives. Literally, never. No wonder the establishment reaction was so extreme.

Part I also covers the infamous bailout, the Northern Ireland peace process, and the British-Irish relationship (our most important by far). The latter two were sacrificed to the euro-philia of the Irish elite. The latter had to decide after the Brexit referendum in the UK where its best interests lay. It opted for Brussels without any debate, any green paper, any white paper, all in flagrant disregard of our obligations to the peace process and the British-Irish relationship as set out in the Good Friday Agreement. The key decision was the refusal to work with the UK on border issues (until very late in the day) and to put our future in the hands of the Brussels institutions, the very people who inflicted so much damage on the Republic and its people during the bailout. It was a misjudgement of epic proportions.

Part II covers the Republics attitude to European integration (going back to the 1950s); how that position changed, particularly after the UK decided to join the then EEC in the 1960s; our business model, including our low rate of corporation tax and other dodgy practices in the area of taxation; Ireland and the euro, the most spectacular of own goals and, like our response to Brexit, embraced without a green paper or a white paper or, as far as I can recall, even an inter departmental committee; the democratic deficit represented by the EU (which UK readers dont need to be reminded of); and Ireland and ever closer union.

Part III begins with a subject close to my heart, namely the EU propaganda machine in Ireland, something of which the Irish public is largely unaware. This is one of the most important chapters in the book and it is a subject that Irish academics need to focus on, razor-like, in the interest of Irish democracy. There is of course a powerful pro-EU lobby in Britain also, which put up a hell of a fight to reverse Brexit (a fight that will, I suspect, resume if Labour wins the next British general election) but in a large society like the UK it is not possible for a propaganda machine like Brussels to have the same influence there as it has in Ireland. The author sets out his conclusions in the last chapter of Part IV, which stress the importance of Ireland breaking free from group think and taking a long hard look at our European policy. It is a sad commentary on the health of Irish democracy that such a call should be necessary after the crisis of 2008 and how we were treated by Brussels at that time, but it is.

The Epilogue is a brilliant portrayal of Irelands Foreign Ministry as I remember it. The cosmopolitan staff, the disdain for the people, the contempt for the results of referenda and the professed belief that what is good for Europe is good for Ireland are in reality a reflection of a deep level of insecurity. Establishment types act as if they know it all, but in reality they run scared of the least thing. Their whole lives, their whole sense of self-worth, is tied up with staying in with the right people. Their efforts to portray themselves as something they are not is by times embarrassing, by times amusing and by times infuriating. It is, at all times, however, damaging for the country. Diplomats in other countries are not, in any way, in awe of the EU as many of our diplomats, and those of some other smaller Member States, appear to be.

Ireland and the EU Post Brexit is a very good and important book and a thumping good read. I am enormously pleased that Bassett has written it and I again salute his courage in doing so. I hope he updates it to take account of the coronavirus and how it has caused the Member States of the EU to realize, after a long period of denial, that their first obligations are to their own state and their own people. I suspect the EU will never be the same again.

Michael Clarke is a former civil servant in Irelands Department of Enterprise, Trade and Employment.

Related

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Ireland and the EU Post Brexit - Briefings For Britain - Briefings For Brexit

Can UK wife of an Irish man staylonger than 90 days on a visit?

I am an Irish citizen, resident in the UK with a second home in France. Will my British wife be limited to a three-month stay in any six-month period if she accompanies me to France or will she be able to benefit from the more flexible 183 day per year limit, as I do? If so what will we need to show at passport control?

In practical terms, unfortunately yes she will be limited to no more than a three-month stay, though this does not apply until after the end of the transition period.

As you say, EU citizens can come and go in other EU states, especially one like France which is relaxed about formalities for EU citizens there is no requirement to register after three months, as some countries have, for example. Technically, free movement is only for three months but it can go on longer if someone is working or if they are not working but are able to support themselves and have healthcare cover (typically this has meant using an Ehic, which can be used as long as the stay is still considered temporary and does not amount to residency).

France-UK travel: how quarantine would affect insurance

The 183-day limit that you refer to is because if you spend more than half of the year in France you could be considered to have become a French resident.In the case of non-EU citizens married to an EU citizen, as in the case of your wife, they have the right to accompany EU citizens during stays but before three months elapses they would be expected to apply for a five-yearcarte de sjour from the prefecture in order to stay for more than three months.

This would be the free carte de sjour de membre de la famille dun citoyen de lunion. It requires showing the passport of the EU citizen spouse, proof of where you live, proof of the family link (eg. marriage certificate), and proof that the EU citizen is living in France legally ie. evidence of their income and healthcare cover or work contract etc.

As such a process is more appropriate to moving to France for the long term, it would be best to only plan trips of up to three months maximum.These changes would apply after the transition period, currently set to finish at the end of 2020.

In our comprehensive help guide, you'll find information on what Brexit means for British residents, second homeowners and visitors in France - now and after December 31, 2020. Recentlyupdated following on from the delay of the new residence card website for Britons (now set to launch in October), this 64-page handbook outlines what you need to do as Britain leaves the EU. We answer your questions onwhether second homeowners can spend more than 90 days in France after Brexit, would you be better covered for healthcare by becoming French, future guidance on pet vaccinations and more. Buy the guide here.

More questions from theBrexit helpguide:

Can I still move freely in Schengen Zone?

Will French blue badges still be valid in UK?

Will inheritance law be affected?

Will the Erasmus study scheme continue for Britons?

Will I need a new passport?

Will Britons need visas to visit France?

See the article here:

Brexit: Can UK wife of Irish man stay 90+ days in France? - The Connexion

Where National was taking advice is unclear, but it has in the past had direct and indirect links with conservative research and polling organisation Crosby Textor and Topham Guerin, the social media agency that helped Boris Johnson win the 2019 UK election.

To be fair to Peters, he joined other political leaders in criticising National's position as "undermining democracy".

However, he also joined National's questioning of his own coalition government's decision to grant refugee status to Kurdish-Iranian journalist Behrouz Boochani, asking why he had "jumped the queue". Peters was accused of "race-baiting" in return.

Populist lines of attack may be born out of electoral weakness and political expediency, but they are risky at a time when Ardern's handling of the worst global pandemic since 1918 has boosted her national and international standing.

Moreover, the performance of populist governments in dealing with COVID-19 has been woeful, which hardly boosts the credibility of populist posturing over the pandemic in New Zealand.

Take Boris Johnson's original argument in favour of a "herd immunity" strategy to avoid disrupting the economy: "You could take it on the chin [...] and allow the disease, as it were, to move through the population."

By mid-March the World Health Organisation (WHO) was publicly questioning the absence of any clinical evidence to support this response, and the Johnson government was ordering a strict national lockdown to suppress the virus.

Now, senior cabinet ministers, including the prime minister, are facing possible prosecution for alleged misconduct in public office, which some say has led to over 60,000 avoidable deaths.

Read the rest here:

Opinion: Populism from Brexit and Trump enters New Zealand election, but it's a risky strategy - Newshub

Clifden is known as the capital of Connemara, a famous beauty spot on the Wild Atlantic Way that would have been holding what is the highlight of its summer season this weekend, its famous Connemara Pony Show.

The surrounding area is a place when politicians and the powerful come at this time of year to get away from it all.

But a dinner of the Oireachtas Golf Society in the Station House Hotel on Wednesday night has convulsed the Irish political system, with the crisis now spreading to the heart of EU decision making in Brussels.

After the EU Commissioner, Phil Hogan, apologised for his attendance, the Taoiseach and Tnaiste took a major decision to escalate the issue on Saturday night by releasing a joint statement urging him to "consider his position."

This gave way to strong speculation that he would have little choice but to step down today.

But Commissioner Hogan was digging his heels in.

He issued a statement offering a "fulsome apology" but when I spoke to his spokesperson at lunchtime they insisted he is not going anywhere.

"No, he is not resigning," the spokesperson said adamantly.

He appeared to have the backing of Commission President, Ursula Von der Leyen, according to sources that were quoted elsewhere.

Analysis of the situation from Brussels sources suggested that the Commission would not want to allow domestic politics to override it, and that it could not allow itself to be lead by the views of nation state governments about the suitability or otherwise of a member of the Commission.

"The Commission protects itself first," said one.

Read More:EU Commissioner Phil Hogan not resigning - spokespersonHotels find 'challenges' in Govt communications - IHF

It was also pointed out that Mr Hogan has one of the most powerful jobs in Brussels - at the centre of Brexit talks that are at a sensitive stage and crucial to Ireland's interests.

His departure would cause a big headache for Ms Von der Leyen.

But just after 4pm the Commission issued a statement which suggested that Ms Von der Leyen, who is a qualified doctor, was taking the situation very seriously.

She had asked Mr Hogan to provide "a full report with details of the event."

The statement said: "It is important that facts are established in detail to carefully assess any situation."

The statement once again escalated the situation, suggesting that if there are any holes in the story about his location in Kilkenny ahead of his travels to Galway, then he would be asked to resign.

Such a scenario would avoid a stand-off situation between the President of the Commission and a national government, something neither would want.

It would also be a relief to members of government here who believe it would be politically damaging for both Michel Martin and Leo Varadkar if they had marched to the top of the hill on this with no way back down.

The public opprobrium if Mr Hogan is to stay on in office would be almost unbearable for this coalition to take. And there would have been massive unrest in both parties if the leaders escalated it with no plan.

One Minister has suggested this afternoon that if the coalition is to move on from this episode, as it so desperately needs to, it cannot until a line is drawn under this episode.

There will be many people in government buildings and Brussels anxiously awaiting his next move.

View post:

Clifden golf event at the nexus of Covid-19 and Brexit - RTE.ie

The GBP/USD currency pair, which expresses the value of the British pound sterling in terms of the U.S. dollar, has pushed higher since the latter half of July this year. Yet in recent weeks, GBP has struggled to sustain its advance against USD. The chart below uses weekly candlesticks to illustrate GBP/USD price action from around 2017 through to present.

(Source: Trading View.)

The U.S. dollar has sold off against various currencies, including perhaps most notably the euro, as markets have become less convinced of the world reserve currency's entitlement to a premium. The surprises which occurred in the first half of this year, which arose due to the COVID-19 crisis, have been addressed through significant fiscal and monetary policy interventions. Governments continue to intervene, yet the demand for USD has seemed to dry up relative to the first half of the year. The U.S. Federal Reserve's FX swap lines have fallen substantially in demand, from a peak of around $450 billion (from foreign central banks) in May, down to approximately $100 billion.

USD is viewed as a safe haven and often rallies during market turmoil. With equities now back at all-time highs, risk sentiment is positive and interest rates are now extremely low (the U.S. short-term rate has been crushed this year, falling to the zero lower bound of 0.00-0.25%). Therefore, there is little safe-haven demand for USD, and very little appeal to buy USD on the basis of any interest-rate spread. Liquidity remains high and yet USD still remains overvalued on the basis of its international purchasing power.

This overvaluation has been made worse this year, as the United States' terms of trade (the ratio between its export and import prices) has worsened (importantly more than major European nations such as Germany). The chart below shows the collapse in the U.S.'s terms of trade this year, while Germany (in this case perhaps serving as a proxy for the euro) has had a better year thus far (as at the end of Q2 2020).

(Source: Trading Economics.)

A country's terms of trade is one factor, but a factor with greater overall importance is purchasing power parity (the relative purchasing power of a currency internationally). As presented in a recent article of mine, EUR/GBP seems to offer further upside on the basis of a PPP model which uses OECD data. Below, I construct a simple PPP model (the "step-function" red line, which is up-to-date through 2019) using the same OECD data set, alongside GBP/USD prices (the black line). GBP/USD is still technically undervalued.

(Data sourced from OECD and Investing.com.)

Rather nicely, the 2008/09 Great Recession saw the GBP/USD significantly through to the PPP model's implied fair value. In other words, prior to this crisis, it would seem that (on the basis of international trade and relative purchasing power) GBP was already significantly overvalued. The run on USD, driven in great part by safe-haven flows, crushed GBP/USD with rapidity. GBP then rebounded but remained fairly range-bound between 1.40 to 1.70 through to the announcement of Brexit, which has meant that GBP has been trading at a discount ever since.

This long-term pessimism means that one day, GBP/USD could enjoy significant upside, at least through to 1.40 (relative to the current market price of around 1.30), and perhaps through to the previous range of around 1.40 to 1.70. The running premium (discount) rate (comparing the prevailing market price to the PPP-inspired fair value estimate) is shown below (using the same data as used in the chart above).

However, risks remain. As I noted in my article covering EUR/GBP, the deadline for a trade deal between the U.K. and the EU is the end of the year. Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Boris Johnson did not exploit the opportunity to extend the deadline by the end of June 2020, and therefore the U.K. now faces the very real possibility of crashing out of Europe's free trade area into 2021. This was arguably imprudent of Johnson, considering that the country also currently faces an unprecedented pandemic-driven economic crisis. The chips will fall as they may, but one would think that this risk will weigh on GBP. Until at least the end of 2020, we should look at any economic data this year (from the United Kingdom, and perhaps indeed from any country) with skepticism.

Taking a broad perspective, it does not make sense for GBP to trade at a premium to USD. Therefore, we should not be surprised that it trades at a discount (if not "fair value"). GBP has traded in a volatile fashion this year, much like a commodity currency, and this makes sense given that GBP FX liquidity has dropped significantly. The U.K. is now effectively "on its own" following Brexit, and no longer enjoys the security of being part of the European Union. Whether or not Brexit was a good decision for the country is debatable, but it is arguably quite clear that it does not place the British economy in an enviable position in the near term.

The euro is rising against both USD and GBP for EUR-specific reasons: as noted in my EUR/GBP article, given the pandemic and joint issuance of sovereign debt, there is potential for higher European bond yields and reduced E.U. break-up risk. Furthermore, USD seems to continue to hold a premium over certain currencies including the euro. Therefore, there is still further room for the euro to ascend versus USD, while GBP-specific risks continue to hold given Brexit.

Until year-end, I believe that EUR/USD could continue to remain firm, yet we have to ask ourselves why USD has been falling. It has held a premium over EUR and other currencies, while safe-haven demand (in the FX space) has dried up, and the U.S. economy has not been a net-beneficiary of net movements in import and export prices. Yet while the U.K. has likely benefited in part by the pick-up in global risk sentiment, the economy is smaller than the United States's economy, and immediate Brexit risks hardly make GBP an attractive alternative to USD (especially given GBP's reduced liquidity, which is a sign of reduced international trade and investor demand).

Note that should the U.K. drop out of the EU without a formal trade deal in place, this could cause significant supply chain issues as trade between the U.K. and other countries could suffer certain frictions that it has not heretofore (including tariffs) should the U.K. fall back on standard WTO trade terms. GBP is likely to remain subdued because of this; buyers are likely to be less interested (on average) in establishing significant and/or long-term relationships with U.K. exporters until greater certainty is achieved, which essentially drops the appeal of the potential arbitrage in the GBP-USD discount (with respect to our PPP model).

I continue to believe that GBP could surge to the upside in the long-term future, perhaps even at some point in 2021, especially if a trade deal can be achieved with the EU (even if it has to occur past the 2020 year-end deadline). But for now, GBP does not appear to be an attractive alternative to USD, and I believe GBP (independent of risk sentiment) deserves to trade at a discount until greater certainty and longevity can be achieved and assured. Since the Bank of England's short-term rate is just +10 basis points, effectively lower than the U.S. Federal Reserve's target-rate midpoint of +12.5 basis points, there is also zero carry-trade appeal in GBP/USD.

Speculators (based on the CFTC's weekly report of U.S. futures markets) also seem to be neutral on GBP. With little reason for late-2020 optimism, at least at this current juncture, I believe the next most appropriate direction for speculators will be to bet against the currency through year-end. GBP is worth monitoring, but I continue to believe downside pressure is more likely to be found in the near term (at least to the 1.27 handle).

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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GBP/USD Struggles To Break Higher As Brexit Risks Remain, While USD Appears Safer - Seeking Alpha

NEWRY Chamber, in partnership with InterTradeIreland, has organised a series of webinars to raise business awareness of the need to prepare for the end of the Brexit transition period.

The three events, starting tomorrow will focus on the protocol and what it means for your business, the services sector, and the transport and logistic issues.

Chamber president Emma Mullen-Marmion said: Managing Covid-19 has been the focus for many businesses. With the transition period ending in a matter of months, it's important businesses re-engage on the Brexit issue and prepare for the changes that will happen on January 1.

The purpose of these webinars is to ensure businesses understand what the changes mean, what they need to do and where they can go for help.

InterTradeIreland has played a vital role in supporting businesses through Brexit and the Chamber is delighted that they will be partnering with us in these webinars.

IntertTradeIreland's designated officer Aidan Gough added: Britain's exit from the European Union will change the basis on which trade takes place between the two blocs and between Northern Ireland and Ireland.

It's vital businesses are ready to adjust to the new arrangements as they impact on their sector so that we continue to grow cross-border trade on this island and benefit from the many opportunities that have been realised through innovative partnerships.

InterTradeIreland aims to assist businesses to make this process as seamless, or least disruptive as possible through the provision of detailed information on new processes as they emerge from the negotiations.

The first of the webinars on Wednesday August 26 is entitled The NI Protocol and What it Means for Your Business.

Katy Hayward, Professor of Political Sociology at Queen's University and Senior Fellow in the UK in a Changing Europe, will provide a precis of the Protocol and the current negotiations.

A Q&A panel will include Stephen Kelly (Manufacturing NI), Aodhn Connolly (NI Retail Consortium) and Deirdre Maguire (InterTradeIreland).

For more information on how to register for this and other webinars email admin@newrychamber.com

See the rest here:

Businesses must be ready for end of Brexit transition - The Irish News

During his tenure as Shadow Brexit Secretary under the Labour Party leadership of Jeremy Corbyn, Sir Keir was a strong advocate of holding a second referendum on the UK's membership of the EU before the general election in 2019.

But those plans collapsed after Labour was crushed in the election, with the Prime Minister finally able to get his Brexit deal voted through Parliament and deliver on his promise to "Get Brexit Done" on January 31.

Since becoming Labour leader on April 4, Sir Keir has remained strangely silent on Brexit, and did not even advocate an extension to the transition period beyond December 31.

The Labour leader's stance will likely continue for the rest of the year and Sir Keir will instead "come up with an attack designed to satisfy most reasonable Remainers while appealing to the largest number of Leavers possible, it has been claimed.

He will likely employ a strategy to focus on the mistake made by the Conservatives, which will continue all the way through to the next general election, which isn't scheduled to take place until 2024.

The Government's handling of the coronavirus crisis will be central, as will Brexit, depending on the fallout from the UK's departure from the EU.

In a blog post for The Spectator, Nick Tyrone said: "Passionate Remainers complain that Starmer hasnt been anti-Brexit enough since he became leader where was the plea to extend the transition period?

"Many Leavers grumble that the general election settled the Brexit question once and for all and that Starmer should come out and say that Britain leaving the EU was a good thing.

"He has done neither or these things and I dont think he will say anything about Brexit for the rest of this year.

"Instead, he will most likely come up with an attack designed to satisfy most reasonable Remainers while appealing to the largest number of Leavers possible."

Sir Keir could argue the Tories left Britain in the doldrums, and if elected as Prime Minister, could look to return to the negotiating table with Brussels in search of a revised Brexit deal that would create jobs throughout the country.

READ MORE:Brexit LIVE: Frost to put Barnier in place after sensational claims

It would also constitute something looking a Norway-plus deal, meaning Britain would be forced to rejoin the single market and customs union.

This could be a prudent strategy if there has been a negative impact on the UK economy that is still being felt by the next general election in 2024.

But The Spectator has identified a major problem if Sir Keir should decide to impose this strategy, warning the Conservatives "could frustrate such a cunning plan by creating facts on the ground".

The Tories could counter by creating jobs in critical constituencies, especially in the North, where Labour still holds a significant presence, meaning Sir Keir's pledge for the UK to re-join the single market "would then take on a different quality".

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The publication wrote in an editorial on Sir Keir's possible plan: "That sounds neat, but ignores that the Tories could frustrate such a cunning plan by creating facts on the ground, or rather by creating jobs that are reliant on regulatory divergence.

"The impact would be stronger if those jobs were created in critical constituencies, especially in the North. A pledge to re-enter the single market would then take on a different quality.

"We would be discussing steel jobs versus AI jobs rather than jobs versus no jobs. Judging by the shambles of government policy right now, that would require a new sense of purpose and seriousness that seems to be widely absent so far.

"On the other hand, failure to develop a strong post-Brexit and post-pandemic industrial strategy would be potentially fatal to this administration, which is why they will probably attempt to do it.

The UK and EU opened Brexit talks in March but so far have made little progress, with both sides' refusal to give ground on a number of red lines including fishing access, the EU's level playing field and state aid proving to be huge stumbling blocks.

The latest round of negotiations resume in Brussels this week, with both sides insisting they are committed to reaching a deal over the coming weeks.

On Tuesday - just hours before the UK's chief Brexit negotiator David Frost meets Brussels counterpart Michel Barnier for dinner in the Belgian capital - the EU warned a trade agreement must be achieved "in October at the latest" if it is to be ratified in time.

A spokesman said: "The important thing to note - and I would point you first of all back to what Michel Barnier himself said in London at the end of the last round of negotiations - that, first of all, we want a deal, we want to have an ambitious and fair partnership with the UK, and that we must come to an agreement in October at the latest.

He added: "This week and over the coming weeks we will remain constructive, we will remain engaged and respectful with the UK negotiating team in order to reach a deal."

Read more:

Boris Johnson's plot to exploit Keir Starmer on Brexit will excite northern Leave voters - Daily Express

Justice minister Karin Keller-Sutter urged the countrys electorate to oppose a plan to scrap its free movement accord with Brussels. The initiative put forward by the countrys right-wing opposition calls on the Swiss government to suspend the pact in order to take over full control of the countrys immigration system. Under the proposal, the deal must be renegotiated with Brussels within the next 12 months or be scrapped altogether.

But Ms Keller-Sutter claimed the EU could just ignore the requests to revisit their existing free movement deal.

A yes to the initiative is even worse than Brexit, she said.

Switzerlands bilateral agreements with the bloc do not contain similar exit clauses, such as Article 50, used by the British Government to deliver Brexit.

The EU is not obliged to speak to us, Ms Keller-Sutter added.

Under the current free movement pact, Switzerland and the EU have access to each others markets and the right to choose places of residence.

If the Swiss vote to restrict immigration from EU states, it would also invalidate several other bilateral agreements on trade, transport and research.

Supporters of the initiative, including the Swiss Peoples Party, the largest in the Federal Assembly, have argued the current system puts pressure on jobs and salaries in Switzerland.

They also say EU immigration has increased rents, caused overcrowding on public transport and in schools, and is to blame for much of the countrys crime statistics.

Whereas opponents claim the immigration curb would have severe consequences on the Swiss economy.

Ms Keller-Sutter said: Its an expression of our economic situation.

MUST READ:EU comes first! Boris Johnson issued devastating Brexit blow to deal

With free movement of people and the measures to promote the domestic workforce, only those people who are needed by the economy and who actually have a job come from the EU.

I ask those who claim that there is uncontrolled and unnecessary migration: what would we have done at the height of the corona crisis without the health staff crossing the borders. More than 4,000 came to Ticino from Italy and more than 20,000 from France.

Switzerlands system of direct democracy allows for constitutional amendments to be put to nationwide referendums if campaigners can gather at least 100,000 signatures over 18 months.

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The Peoples Party started gathering support for the immigration initiative in 2018 and submitted them eight months later.

Currently relations with the EU are governed by more than 120 bilateral accords, which have been in force since 1972.

Switzerland and the EU are currently working on a new framework agreement to consolidate the pacts into a single relationship treaty, but this was rejected amid fears the country would give up too much sovereignty to Brussels.

Additional reporting by Monika Pallenberg

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'Worse than Brexit!' Switzerland sent huge warning over bid to overthrow EU initiative - Daily Express

The SNP motion was passed by 92 votes to 31 today - whilst an opposing Tory motion calling on Scottish ministers to "engage constructively with the UK Government" on the plans was rejected by 30 votes to 91. Downing Street and Whitehall sources told Express.co.uk they were disappointed by the result. Business Secretary Alok Sharma published a White Paper on the new laws earlier this month which will see measures which were previously managed by the EU return to the UK at the end of the year when the Brexit transition period expires.

The 160 policy areas including animal welfare, public procurement rules and environmental regulations will now go to one or more of the devolved administrations.

UK ministers have said the return of powers to the UK from Brussels will see the Northern Ireland administration receive responsibility in 157 of the 160 areas, Scotland in 111 and Wales in 70.

UK ministers characterise it as a "power surge" for devolved administrations as responsibilities are transferred from Brussels.

But the Scottish government say that the controversial plans are a power grab by Westminster and could leave the UK Government with a veto on Scottish laws passed at Holyrood.

The SNP Scottish government motion said the proposals are incompatible with devolution and the democratic accountability of the Scottish Parliament.

It added that it would also "fundamentally undermine legitimate devolved policy choices on a range of matters, including the environment, public health and social protection".

Alex Rowley, Scottish Labours constitution spokesman, partially agreed and said any agreement on an internal market should be reached on a four-nation basis.

Mr Rowley said: "I want to make a direct plea to the UK Government to recognise that any arrangement for the UK internal market must be reached by agreement between the four nations of the UK.

READ MORE:Sturgeon's independence bid is tired' and 'diverting Scotland

"The idea that the Westminster Government can and will force its point of view on the other three nations regardless of what they think is not just ridiculous, it will almost certainly build support against remaining part of the UK and lead to the ultimate break-up of the United Kingdom as we know it."

A Labour amendment, which warned Westminster's plans could "hinder the capacity to utilise state aid interventions, including public ownership" was also passed by 91 votes to 31.

A Green amendment, stating the UK Government's proposed legislation will be a "clear breach" of the 1998 Scotland Act, which led to the establishment of the Scottish Parliament, was also approved by 91 votes to 31.

But MSPs voted down a Liberal Democrat amendment calling for the current plans to "be replaced with proposals to assist a smooth-running UK internal market through agreed frameworks and joint decision-making between the four UK administrations in a federal arrangement", with this defeated by 27 votes to 95.

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Speaking for the SNP in the debate, Jenny Gilruth said the White Paper included no mechanism for negotiation between the four governments of the UK.

She said: "This means that the UK Government can impose decisions on the devolved governments with no right of appeal and no means of redress.

"The Conservatives are kidding themselves if they can't see this undermines the very foundations of devolution."

Scottish Conservative MSP Dean Lockhart said the SNP's EU Continuity Bill would lead to Holyrood becoming a "passive rule-taker" and impose the burdens of two regulatory systems on businesses.

Mr Lockhart, the party's constitution spokesman, said the UK Government had transferred "unprecedented powers" to the Scottish Parliament over the last decade.

He said: "The internal market proposals cannot be viewed in isolation, they have to be viewed in the context of the significant new powers coming to this parliament.

"Because at the end of the transition period, the Scottish Parliament will enjoy a power surge, making this parliament more powerful than ever."

But Whitehall sources tonight told Express.co.uk tonight the decision was "disappointing" stressing the Government were yet to name "a single power which could be removed from Holyrood."

They stressed powers currently under the control of the EU would be transferred to Cardiff, Stormont and Holyrood stressing that it would be a "power boost" for devolution.

A source said: "The SNP should be working with Westminster on this matter in a cooperative manner."

A UK Government spokesperson, added: "The proposals on which we have consulted will ensure the free flow of goods and services across every part of the UK, while respecting devolution.

Many businesses depend on trade with the home nations more than any other partner. In Scotland, sales of produce to the rest of the UK are worth 51.2billion per year - accounting formore than 60 per cent ofall exports.

Powers that are currently under the control of the EU will be transferred to the devolved administrations in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.This is a power surge for devolution."

See the article here:

Scotland angers Boris after key Brexit plan branded 'incompatible' and rejected - Daily Express

PUBLISHED: 09:32 18 August 2020 | UPDATED: 09:32 18 August 2020

Boris Johnson is interviewed by the media. Photograph: Mike Brooke.

Mike Brooke

An EU official has urged Boris Johnson to take the unique and highly attractive offer it has made to the UK which it says has never been offered to any country before.

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Almost four years after its creation The New European goes from strength to strength across print and online, offering a pro-European perspective on Brexit and reporting on the political response to the coronavirus outbreak, climate change and international politics. But we can only continue to grow with your support.

David McAllister, the chair of the European Parliaments UK Coordination Group, told German newspaper Brsen-Zeitung the EU had made a unique and highly attractive offer to the UK that has never been made to a third country: quota-free and duty-free access for goods to the single market.

But he said in the interest of fair competition that the UK must accept the level playing field to progress in negotiations.

McAllister said as well the level-playing field there needed to be a long-term fisheries agreement and a robust system of governance which the European Court of Justice (ECJ) would oversee.

For the EU it is not negotiable that the ECJ is the only institution that is allowed to interpret EU law.

He warned that a no-deal Brexit would have considerable consequences, explaining: A disorderly withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the internal market and the customs union would still be a very bad option for both sides.

McAllister said that a deal needed to be reached by the end of October to ensure it can be ratified by the EU in time by the end of the year.

This week former Brexit secretary David Davis urged the government to send more civil servants to Brussels to help speed up the process.

Almost four years after its creation The New European goes from strength to strength across print and online, offering a pro-European perspective on Brexit and reporting on the political response to the coronavirus outbreak, climate change and international politics. But we can only rebalance the right wing extremes of much of the UK national press with your support. If you value what we are doing, you can help us by making a contribution to the cost of our journalism.

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EU urges Boris Johnson to take 'unique and highly attractive' offer over Brexit - The New European

A number of locations in Leave-voting areas have been earmarked as potential sites for the museum, which aims to tell the story of the struggle for Brexit over the decades. It will feature memorabilia including newspaper cartoons, Wetherspoon beer mats, one of Nigel Farages old suits and even pro-Brexit condoms.

Plans for the museum had been paused due to the push to get Brexit over the line and then the coronavirus crisis.

But they are now being stepped up with just four months until the transition period ends.

Former Brexit Party spokesman Gawain Towler, who is one of the museums organisers, said: Things have been quiet, partially because we still had to fight for Brexit, and then weve had COVID.

But as the country starts to wake up and it looks like we are finally approaching the exit door of the 40-year failed experiment, we are in a better position to look to the future without forgetting the past.

Speaking to the Mail of Sunday, he said the project exists to remember the little people in pub meetings up and down the country who kept the flame of independence and sovereignty alive during the dark years.

Supporters of the Museum of Brexit include Margaret Thatchers chancellor Lord Lawson.

He said: The debate about the United Kingdoms evolving relationship with its neighbours, and its place in the world, has been of critical national significance.

We need to capture those records and stories for posterity.

READ MORE:EU's Brexit fishing plot exposed as Brussels attempts to repeat tactic

Conservative MP David Jones is another supporter of the museum.

He said: The vote of 23 June 2016 was a momentous event in the history of our country, marking the nations determination to re over its independence.

The museum is a worthy venture and I am pleased to support it.

Tory MP Daniel Kawczynski added: "The Museum of Brexit is an excellent initiative, and one that I greatly support.

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Brexit Museum plans stepped up months before Britain FINALLY exits EU - will you visit? - Daily Express

$-bloc: Growing divergence

G10 commodity currencies are showing some diverging dynamics on the back of domestic factors. The New Zealand dollarcontinues tolagits peers, the Australian and Canadian dollars, as investors appear to be gradually pricing in a move by the Reserve Bank of New Zealandinto negative rates, and a fresh lockdown in Auckland is also weighing on the currency. Still, we expect NZD to find a floor soon as some investors may doubt thatthe RBNZ will effectively cut again. AUD, instead, is benefiting from some fresh hopes of re-opening in Victoria, while the Reserve Bank of Australia'sdownbeat tone on the economic recovery shown in the minutes overnight had already been priced in after Governor Philip Lowes speech last week, and left little markon AUD. CAD is retaining good momentum largely thanks to lingering good resilience in oil prices despite the resignationof Canadian Finance Minister Bill Morneau yesterday.

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FX Daily: Over-complacent GBP at risk as Brexit talks resume - ING Think

A youthful Benjamin Disraeli, failing once more to become a Member of Parliament, told a gathering of Conservative supporters that he was neither disheartened nor felt like a beaten man. He was used to it and, waxing philosophical, told them he was like the Italian general who, enjoying victories in old age, explained it was because he had always been beaten in his youth.

Brexiteers can empathize. Despite winning the 2016 referendum on the question of leaving the European Union, the last four years have been exasperating: Dissembling from then prime minister Theresa May. Obstruction from a Europhilic bureaucracy. And willful defiance from MPs, who prefer to side with the EU rather than the British electorate.

The Brexit cause is positioned much like the young Disraeli. Is it fated to experience another defeat on the road to independence? Or, after years of disappointment, is the promised land of liberty in sight?

A number of factors caution favor. First among them is the character of the UK chief negotiator, David Frost. He is a steadfast advocate of a meaningful Brexit and is more than a match for his EU counterpart, Michel Barnier. Earlier this summer Mr. Frost fired an unmistakable broadside against EU pretensions: UK sovereignty, over our laws, our courts, or our fishing waters, is of course not up for discussion.

Fortunately for Mr. Frost and Brexit, EU officials are their own worst enemy. Their intransigence in the face of Britains adamant insistence for independence is proving counter-productive. Respecting territorial fishing waters, EU trawlers take half their catch from British jurisdiction, taking three times as much fish as the UK industry does in EU waters. Without a deal, this discrepancy ends.

EU demands for regulatory alignment mock the principles of UK self-government. Brexit was fought on the issue of economic sovereignty, based on competitive tax policy and legislative flexibility in aid of domestic industry. The stated goal of a level playing field nullifies parliamentary responsibility. Just as galling are proposals to have the European Court of Justice take the place of a neutral arbiter of any trade disputes in a future UK-EU trade deal.

Nor should the effects of Covid on the continent be ignored. With productivity falling precipitously in major countries like Germany (10.1%), France (18.9 %), and Spain (22.7%), EU leaders are desperate to reboot their economies. Britain, though, is no less vulnerable, with its decline comparable to its European competitors, at 20.4%.

Fortunately, the UK is not wanting for commercial partners. Britain is on course to agreeing multiple trade agreements with at least four countries Australia, New Zealand, Japan and, more significantly, America focused on free trade and lower tariffs. Only EU obligations, that expire in December, stand in the way.

And unlike the repeated failures to get a flawed Withdrawal Agreement passed by Parliament in the early months of 2019, a deadline inserted in the eventual agreement for a transition extension by June 30, has passed. Brexit or Bust.

Yet this is a double-edged sword. With no possibility of an extension to ease deadlocked negotiations, Britain may feel pressure to agree to humiliating terms in order to seal a deal. This despite repeated claims that absent a draft agreement by summers end, the UK would switch its focus from the EU to the global trading market. There are other hurdles, too.

Principally, Prime Minister Boris Johnson. The bravura of lets get Brexit done, based on his putative libertarian leanings, has been replaced by vacillating policy toward more government intervention and nanny-state oversight.

Conflicting government policy on EU defense is a case in point. The UK defense industry is encouraged to apply for European military funding, while government spokesmen deny any dissimulation and continue to stand for NATO and against a stand-alone EU defensive bloc.

The deep state remains alive and kicking. The power of civil servants, unabashedly in favor of the EU and inimical to Conservative policy to break UK subservience, has yet to be broken.

Fortunately for Brexiteeers, a game changer exists in the person of Tory MP Michael Gove, who is proving a thorn in the side of Mr. Johnson. If Gove is planning to do a Kingslayer job on Boris, James Delingpole reports for Breitbart London, then I wish him all the very best.

Like young Disraelis political future, the cause of British sovereignty stays in flux. Will Brexit be beaten once more? Or does victory for independence lie ahead?

________

Mr. MacLean writes the Brexit Diary for the New York Sun.

Read more here:

Could Brexit Be Confounded at the 11th Hour? - New York Sun

China and the EU have been locked in talks since 2013, when efforts began to produce an investment agreement which would deliver predictable, long-term mutual access to both markets. There have so far been 31 negotiating rounds, including one earlier this month. The Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) - the EU being treated in China the way Chinese businesses are treated in the EU - is currently one of the core topics of discussion. Beijing also wants to agree a 2025 Cooperation Agenda with the EU, which could reset Sino-European relations in areas ranging from climate control and energy security to science and technology.

But both the 2025 Cooperation Agenda and the CAI are dependent on the satisfaction of a set of issues which include level playing field considerations - one of the major elements which has proved to be a huge stumbling block in trade talks between the EU and UK.

Naomi Smith is chief executive of non-partisan advocacy group Best for Britain, who are campaigning for a comprehensive UK-EU trade deal, told Politics.co.uk: The EU has made it clear that level playing field considerations, as well as other areas of contention such as fisheries policy, must be addressed as a matter of priority in any trade negotiations.

"If it's not prepared to budge for mighty China, it's not likely to roll over for the UK, given that would create a low-cost competitor on its doorstep and undercut EU businesses.

"But the Chinese deal also reveals something more deep-seated about the UK-EU negotiations. There is, right now, a historic opportunity to build on our proximity to Europe, if we seize the same advantages that the Chinese are seeking.

"This is why business leaders and organisations such as Best for Britain have been pushing the government to agree a comprehensive trade deal with the EU. With economies reeling from the impact of covid, it has never been more important to maximise mutual economic benefits.

"If China is prepared to contemplate significant change to its business practices in pursuit of closer EU links and a lucrative FTA, why on Earth is Britain threatening to chuck any chance of a comprehensive trade deal in the Channel?

"Brexit has been delivered. We're shuffling out of the EU. But we have links, knowledge and allies in Europe that China can only dream of. They provide an opportunity to take Brexit and turn it into a showcase of how trade with the EU can best be done, starting with the level playing field.

"Far from being something to fear, we should see it for what it is a chance for British businesses to fight fairly in that massive market on our doorstep.

"If we turn down that chance, we're going to get to 2025 and find that our businesses are lumbered with crippling costs to enter the single market and competing for European business with the EU's newest FTA partner: Beijing.

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8.55pm update: Next round of Brexit talks will be nothing but 'shadow boxing'

Sources in the EU have said next week's post-Brexit trade talks in Brussels will be a round of "shadow boxing".

A source told the Telegraph: Both sides have moved closer together but we see this round as laying the foundations for future breakthroughs.

Imagine two fencers sizing each other out or two fighters shadow-boxing before the real engagement begins.

7.28pm update: Farmers call for reassurances from Government as December 31 looms

British potato farmers say they need reassurance from the Government as the Brexit transition period deadline looms.

Growers are hoping to avoid a third bad year but so far have been hit with a heatwave and a nationwide lockdown.

Potato farmer of North Yorkshire said there needs to be a shift in the agricultural industry or prices of potatoes will hike.

He told the Guardian: If you want to eat good wholesome food at the standards that British agriculture has achieved in the last 20 years, someone needs to pay for it.

If youre not prepared to pay money for higher British standards, British agriculture will change dramatically, and probably for the worse.

Fellow farmer Nigel Adams, who usually produces 7,500 tonnes of potatoes a year in the West Midlands, said he had almost forgotten about Brexit.

He said: "We had forgotten about it, there have been so many other things to think about."

6.21pm update:Scotland brutally lashes out at Boris Johnsons Brexit plan - Needs a consensus!

Scottish politicians have warned Boris Johnson against imposing a post-Brexit internal market between the devolved nations and the UK Government without their consent.

The Westminster Government wants to establish a new internal market between the four nations after December 31, when the Brexit transition period comes to a close. MSPs have warned every devolved power could be undermined by the proposals.

Giving evidence about the proposals on Wednesday, Scotlands Constitution Secretary Mike Russell accused the Prime Minister of running a clear and deliberate anti-devolution policy.

5.18pm update: NI farmers call on Government to offer assurances on meat exports

Farmers in Northern Ireland are demanding assurances from the Government that meat exports shipped from the province through Dublin Port to customers in Britain will qualify for "unfettered access".

The Ulster Farmers' Union (UFU) said up to half of red meat heading for the British market goies through this route.

The UK Government has said that goods from Northern Ireland will not face any barriers when entering the market in Britain.

But the UFU said the assurance does not extend to produce shipped via the Republic of Ireland.

UFU president Victor Chestnutt said: "Produce is shipped through Dublin as it's the only route that is feasible for meeting just-in-time requirements.

"There are important outstanding questions as to how unfettered access to the UK internal market can be delivered via Dublin."

4.12pm update: 'Sad and pathetic' to allow Brexit views to taint relationships - Daubney

Former Brexit Party MEP Martin Daubney has said he finds it "sad and borderline pathetic" when people allow their personal relationships to be tainted by the Leave/Remain debate.

He made the comments on Twitter in response to a poll which asked: "Could you date someone who voted differently to you in the EU referendum?

He tweeted: "My missus is a Remainer and I was a Brexit Party MEP.

"Its just so sad, borderline pathetic, that people would allow politics to taint their private lives like this."

3.04pm update: EU must stop 'pampering' Greece, says Turkey

The EU should stop "pampering" Greece, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu has said.

Mr Cavusoglu's comments came ahead of an EU foreignministers meeting to discuss a collision between Greek and Turkish vessels.

The warships were involved in a mild collision on Wednesday during a standoff in the eastern Mediterranean, in what a Greek defence source called an accident but Ankara described as a provocation.

A source said: "It was an accident."

2.15pm update: EU should reassess ties with Turkey - Austrian foreign minister

TheEuropeanUnionshould reassess its relations with Turkey in light of a series of recent events, Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg said on Friday, citing special concern about the situation in the eastern Mediterranean.

Mr Schallenberg said: "I have to say that Austria is very concerned about the dangerous and alarming situation which we believe could escalate.

"Actions taken by certain states in the eastern Mediterranean ... should lead theEuropeanUnionto re-evaluate its relations with Turkey."

He was speaking at a joint news conference with visiting U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

1.12pm update: Scottish ministers in warning over post-Brexit internal market

MSPs have warned plans for a post-Brexit internal market must not be imposed without consensus and agreement between the devolved nations and the UK Government.

Westminster is hoping to establish a new internal market between the four nations at the end of the transition period.

But the Scottish Government has warned "every devolved power could be undermined" by the proposals.

Holyrood's Finance and Constitution Committee has been hearing evidence on the plans, and have written to UK Business Secretary Alok Sharma urging "mutual trust and respect for the existing constitutional arrangements".

Responding to the Government's white paper consultation, committee convener Bruce Crawford said new structures must not be imposed without devolved Governments' agreement because "trade-offs and balances are involved in making an internal market".

A UK Government spokeswoman previously said the proposed internal market "will ensure the free flow of goods and services across every part of the UK, while upholding the devolution settlement".

12.15pm update:EU fisheries row - French fishermen warn 'were coming for your fish' post-Brexit

The EU is trying to keep its access to UK waters as stalling Brexit trade talks suggest a no deal scenario is likely - but some French fishermen sent a threat to the UK that they will come for British waters.

Before the UK left the bloc on January 31, EU member states were allowed to dip into Britain's marine wealth under the Common Fisheries Policy, angering many fishermen north of the English Channel.

France is one of many nations dependent on British fishing grounds.

Between 2012-2016 for example, France caught 120,000 tonnes of fish worth 171million, according to Marine Management Organisation figures. In February, French President Emmanuel Macron promised he would "fight" for his country's fishermen during Brexit trade talks.

But after the UK accused the EU of causing "paralysis" in Brexit trade talks, Europe's fishermen could be facing a no deal Brexit, in which they will almost certainly lose access to UK fishing grounds.

In a remarkable interview, one French fisherman warned they would flout the post-Brexit laws and come for UK waters.

11.18am update: Pound flat against US dollar and euro ahead of crunch Brexit talks

Sterling is holding firm against the US dollar and euro at the moment.

The British currency was last flat $1.3067 and at 90.35 pence against the euro.

It has jumped nearly seven percent over the last three months against the US dollar, almost exclusively on the back of the greenback weakening.

10.10am update:We're in trouble! Expert admits Ireland RIPPED OFF by EU with fishing deal 'WORSE than UK'

Ireland gets to keep an even smaller percentage of the fish caught in its waters than the UK does and must quit the EU before it finds itself on the margins of the continent, a former top diplomat has said.

Ray Bassett, former Irish ambassador to Canada, Jamaica and the Bahamas, issued his stark warning in his new book, Ireland and the EU post Brexit.

Mr Bassett believes the time has come for a serious discussion about whether Ireland belongs in the European Union at all, questioning the benefits membership brings.

To illustrate his point, he wrote: "The UK under current arrangements only takes around 40 percent of the total fish catches in its waters, a disappointing figure from a British point of view.

9.22am update: Boris Johnson to put Union flag on UK-funded Scottish projects after Brexit - row ERUPTS

Boris Johnson is set to stamp key schemes in Scotland which are paid for by the UK Government with a Union flag from next year after the country exits the Brexit transition period.

The European Union symbol has been used to indicate whether a road or bridge has been directly funded by Brussels but will be replaced with a Union flag.

The new Scottish Conservative leader, Douglas Ross, has backed the idea.

He said Tories in Scotland need to be unashamed of our investment in Scotland.

Senior SNP politicians accused Mr Johnsons Government of posturing of the worst order and is trying to force the union flag down peoples throats.

The Union flag is set to be used to symbolise when the UK central Government money has been spent on Scottish projects.

Although a portion of Scotlands government money derives from an annual grant from London, the Union flag will not be used for Scottish government spending.

8.33am update:Here we go! Brexit deal ready in WEEKS vows Frost as pressure heaped on Barnier

Britain's chief Brexit negotiator David Frost has issued EU counterpart Michel Barnier a tough timeline on trade talks, saying he wants a deal between the UK and the bloc to be reached by next month.

Mr Frost's warning that the UK's patience is running out will serve as a major wake-up call to Mr Barnier who has so far remained stubborn on key issues.

It remains to be seen if he will relent during next week's round of post-Brexit trade meetings in Brussels.

Despite the lack of progress, Mr Frost insisted he was "looking forward" to the seventh round of talks with his European counterpart.

Mr Frost tweeted: "As always, we go in good faith to talk constructively about all the issues.

"Our assessment is that agreement can be reached in September and we will work to achieve this if we can."

He went on to repeat Britain's assertion that it is not seeking an unfair trade pact with the bloc.

8.21am update: Trade border down Irish Sea 'over my dead body' - Boris Johnson

The Prime Minister has warned there will be a trade border down the Irish Sea "over my dead body" following Brexit.

Northern Irish business leaders are worried red tape on goods crossing from Great Britain could make some trade unviable.

But during his visit to the country on Thursday, Mr Johnson reiterated his promise that businesses in the region would enjoy unfettered access to markets in England, Scotland and Wales.

He said: "There will be no border down the Irish Sea - over my dead body."

The Prime Minister agreed to "intensify" partnership arrangements with the Republic of Ireland, adding more work could be done on bilateral deals.

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Brexit LIVE: Expert exposes secret reason Brussels so tough on UK in talks - EU panicking - Daily Express

The Brexit Party leader warned Leave voters the UK will not truly be free if Britain and Brussels finally agree to a deal by the end of this year. Writing for the Daily Express, he warned Brexiteers Brexit would not be the true freedom that they have fought for decades. He warned the UK would still have financial liabilities through the European Investment Bank and would never be free in areas such as state aid. Mr Farage said: My own guess is that a deal will be reached in the coming months but one in which we have continued financial liabilities through the European Investment Bank and one in which we will not truly be free in areas such as state aid.

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The year 2020 will be remembered in history as the year we finally left the European Union, but the final shape of our withdrawal looks unlikely to be the true freedom that many of us had fought for decades.

Speaking about Prime Minister Boris Johnsons Brexit deal in October, he said it was no better than the agreement reached by his predecessor Theresa May.

He added: I sat for hours that morning with my lawyer in Brussels and went through the document line-by-line, even memorising some of the articles.

READ:NIGEL FARAGE'S FULL COMMENT HERE

It was clear that this deal was little better than Mrs Mays.Not only was Northern Ireland to become a different entity, but the European Court of Justice would have a continued say in British public life.

"There were also clever legal wordings that would keep us within the common fisheries policy and commitments to continued regulatory alignment. In short, I felt it was not Brexit."

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READ MORE:Fishing fury: MP urges ban on supertrawlers plundering UK waters

5.30am update: Europeanchallenger bank leaves UK

Finnish challengerHolviannounced plans to exitthe UK market on 31 October 2020, mirroringUKsinitialdeparturedatefrom the EU.

Speaking to Finance Forward,Antti-Jussi Suominen,CEO ofHolvi said:Great Britain is a challenging market - and we were ready to rise to this challenge."

However, the speed with which market conditions are rewritten has changed.We are reacting to the new realities by strengthening our core business in Europe, investing in our product and leaving the UK market. "

2.30am update:New Zealand's Deputy PM says British negotiators are 'not match fit' for negotiations

New Zealand's Deputy Prime Minister,Winston Peters,said Britain is not 'match fit' to thrash outinternational agreements.

According to the Telegraph, Mr PetersblamedBoris Johnsonand his team for the slow advance towards post-Brexit deals.

0.30am update:Taoiseach to meet Boris Johnson today

Michel Martin will have his first in-person meeting with Prime Minister Boris Johnson since becoming Taoiseach during a visit to Northern Ireland today.

They are expected to discuss theUK's post-Brexit trade talks with the EU and the pandemic crisis, as well as developing a sustainable economic recovery strategy.

In a statement, the Department of the Taoiseach said:"Today's meeting will be an opportunity to discussa number ofissues of mutual concern.

"Covid-19 will top the agenda and the two leaders are expected to discuss their respective experiences of managing the virus and dealing with its economic and societal impact.

"They will also discuss Brexit, including the continuing negotiations between the UK and the EU, with less than six months to the end of the transition period."

10.34pm update: Theresa May criticised for lack of progress on UK-New Zealand deal

Speaking today, the country's Deputy Prime Minister stated Mrs May's Government had allowed "inertia" to set in while focusing on Brexit.

Winston Peters said: Where you have a decision to leave the EU and you dont have leading the exiting party, a prime minister committed to the departure its somewhat predictable that inertia would set in.

And thats what weve been witnessing from our part of the world until Boris turned up.

9.26pm update: 60 percent of Britons fear rise in grocery prices

Boris Johnson is under more pressure to secure a free trade agreement, as a new poll has shown 60 percent of Britons believe the cost of shopping goods will rise if no deal is agreed between the UK and EU.

A YouGov poll commissioned by pro-EU group Best for Britain, stated 59 percent believe grocery prices will rise.

Just three percent said prices will drop.

This comes amid concern the new Global Tariff system in place after the transition period would put taxes on EU imports if there is a no deal Brexit.

7.52pm update: Using Royal Nay in the Channel "an act of war"

The mayor of Calais, Natacha Bouchart told France 3 that the use of the Royal Navy in the Channel to deal with migrant crossings, was "an act of war".

She also called on Priti Patel's French counterpart, to press the issue with the UK.

The Navy has been used as migrants crossed the Channel for the ninth day in a row.

5.50pm update: Express reader comment

Express.co.uk has launched its own reader comment section.

Christopher Smithers has written one of the first pieces.

Read it here - JUST IN:'Liberal elite become what they claim to hate, they just want power

5.21pm update:Nicola Sturgeons attempts to keep Scotland linked to Brussels post-Brexit in tatters

An SNP bid to keep Scotland linked with the EU after Brexit will not work, the Holyrood Government has admitted.

Constitution Secretary Mike Russell MSP said the new Bill will mean, on devolved matters, Scottish law can keep in line with those in Europe "when appropriate and practicable to do so".

But the Scottish Governments Chief Constitution Manager admitted she could struggle to see how the published legislation would work.

Emma Lopinska, the Scottish Governments Constitutional Policy Manager at Holyroods Environment, Climate Change and Land Reform Committee said: "The power to align is a discretionary power so its not about maintaining absolute alignment with the EU on every subject.

We couldnt really do that because some of the legislation that comes out of the EU is in reserved areas so the Scottish Parliament cannot legislate.

We have to recognise theres a lot of EU legislation that only makes sense if you are an EU member state.

4.39pm update:80% of UK fishing taken by EU, we need to RECLAIM it to beat recession says JUNE MUMMERY

Former Brexit Party MEP, June Mummery has written a common piece for Express.co.uk on the UK's need to reclaim our waters.

You can read it here.

4.28pm update: Ireland heading for worst recesssion in history due to Brexit and COVID-19

TheIrish Fiscal Advisory Council has warned Ireland's economy may have contracted by 21 percent in April.

Due to the impact of Brexit and the coronavirus pandemic, the council has warned the contraction could be worse than the UK's 20 percent.

3.06pm update: UK confirms US trade deal talks suffer fresh delay

Follwoing the postponement of trade talks between the UK and US, the Department for International Trade (DIT) has confirmed talks in Boston will be delayed until 2021 due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Negotiations had been delayed due to tariffs on whisky while both sides have now also agreed to postpone talks until next year amid concerns over the coronavirus pandemic.

A statement from the DIT has insisted the UK's position on whisky is clear while also pledging to continue talks throughout the autumn.

It read: "She was clear that the UK considers these tariffs to be unacceptable and continued to push for their immediate removal.

In terms of the timeline of negotiations, it was agreed that they should continue at pace throughout the Autumn.

"We hope to rearrange in Spring 2021."

Bill McLoughlin takes over from Rebecca Perring.

2.44pm update:Brexit sparks surge in support for collapse of UK says Sinn Fin

Brexit negotiations between the UK and the EU are exacerbating demands for a United Ireland in Northern Ireland, claimed deputy first minister Sinn Fin's Michelle O'Neill.

Speaking to The Guardian's Politics Weekly series with Jonathan Freedland, the Northern Ireland deputy first minister claimed both Brexit and coronavirus are pushing people from all sides of the political spectrum to have healthy conversations about the collapse of the UK and the possibility of a United Ireland. The Sinn Fin chief argued that even those who identify as unionists are now engaging in such conversations.

She warned: "Brexit is the clearest demonstration of the blatant disregard that the British Government have for the people here.

"There isn't anything good for us here in terms of Brexit. We voted to reject Brexit.

2.23pm update:MP urges ban on supertrawlers plundering UK waters

Supertrawlers which enter British waters to plunder the UK's fish stocks have been branded "hoovers" by an MP who has backed a comprehensive ban to stop them from entering designated Marine Protected Areas aimed at protecting the marine environment.

Sir Roger Gale, Tory MP for North Thanet, has signed a letter coordinated by environmental pressure group Greenpeace, calling for a comprehensive ban which would prevent the massive ships from fishing in any of the conservation areas which surround the UK.

He told Express.co.uk: "We have this absurd situation where we have these protected zones around our coast but we are not protecting them from the predations of supertrawlers.

"It's as simple as that - there is no point having protected zones if you don't protect them.

"These things are huge, massive - they are hoovers.

"I thing we need to start taking a firm grip on this now, irrespective of any agreement which might be reached on fishing.

1.52pm update: New Zealand 'frustrated' at slow pace of Brexit talks

New Zealand has complained about the lack of progress in trade talks with the UK, claiming the Government was not "match fit" for the negotiations.

Winston Peters, New Zealand's deputy prime minister, said he was "very frustrated" with the progress made on a post-Brexit deal.

He said the UK's membership of the European Union - which dealt with trade policy - meant it was not ready to engage properly in negotiations once it was able to pursue independent agreements.

He said: "We've had to look offshore for a long time and so we are seriously match fit when it comes to that, in a way that I don't believe that the UK is, because the UK has been locked up in the EU all these years.

"And in terms of their trading skills and finesse and their firepower - without being critical - they've never had an outing lately.

"They've never had a test, so to speak. It's like coming into an Ashes contest when you haven't played for 30 years - it's the same thing in the UK when it comes to this."

12.40pm update:Britian must take back waters and not capitulate to EU bullying

Jane Mummery, former Brexit Party MEP, wrote for Express.co.uk: "Taking back full control of our waters has never been so important than today, with the announcement of the deepest recession on record.

"Not only is fish a valuable and healthy food source, the industry is a lifeline for coastal communities that are deprived and in desperate need of employment. Today's announcement of the arrival of Britain's deepest recession on record only deepens the need fordramatic and far-reaching action in our fishing industrywhich will help rejuvenate the nation. The fishing industry has the potential to create 100,000 skilled coastal community jobs - worth up to 6.6billion to the exchequer annually.

"This is why we must re-establish the economic link between the fishing industry and coastal communities."

11.55am update:Sturgeons attempts to keep Scotland linked to Brussels post-Brexit in tatters

An SNP bid to keep Scotland linked with the EU after Brexit will not work, the Holyrood Government has admitted.

Constitution Secretary Mike Russell MSP said the new Bill will mean, on devolved matters, Scottish law can keep in line with those in Europe "when appropriate and practicable to do so". But the Scottish Governments Chief Constitution Manager admitted she could struggle to see how the published legislation would work.

11.28am update: EU poll says Brexiteer tribes are fracturing

The Brexit voter tribes that were created during the 2016 EU referendum, and that culminated in Boris Johnsons general election victory last December, are already fading, according toa new poll.

Research by the European Council on Foreign Relations saidthe coronavirus has changed Britons attitudes to the world, Europe, and the state.

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Brexit: Farage predicts what Brexit will look like on Jan 1 will anger Leave voters - Daily Express

The event saw dozens of people gather who want to ensure the future of the car plant is secured in the North East. People taking part in the vigil included A-Level students, retail workers, retired people, health professionals, teachers and an engineer - all of whom are concerned about the impact a no deal Brexit might have on the local and UK economy. The latest plea made by locals towards the UK Government on Friday night, following a demonstration outside the same Nissan car plant in June.

That came a week after Nissans Global Chief Operating Officer Ashwani Gupta warned without tariff-free EU access, the car manufacturing giant may have to leave and close the huge plant in Sunderland.

Louise Brown, who lives locally and was among the group holding the late-night vigil, warned time is running out for the UK to agree a post-Brexit trade deal with the EU.

She told the Sunderland Echo: It went really well with lots of honks of support from workers coming in and out of the factory with some stopping to chat to ask us more about why we were there.

"Workers appear to feel very worried about the situation as we now don't have long to strike a deal.

Holding a vigil outside the Nissan plant allowed us to express our sadness that this much-needed factory may close in the event of a no-deal Brexit as their CEO announced in June.

Ms Brown insisted although time is running out to strike a deal, this can still be achieved over the coming weeks, which could save hundreds of jobs at Nissan in the North East city.

She continued: "We all know how much the area depends on Nissan for employment.

"We did it at night to also show solidarity with the late shift workers.

READ MORE:Brexit LIVE: Boris Johnson facing ANOTHER legal fight at deal with EU

The vigil also highlighted that the Government can rectify this by striking a deal: they only have until October, however, to do this.

"There is also the outcome of the currently stalled UK-Japan trade negotiations to take into account."

Ms Brown said the group had also consulted with Northumbria Police before the vigil, while those involved followed coronavirus social distancing rules at all times.

The UK left the EU on January 31 but under the 11-month transition period until December 31, remains bound to Brussels' rules on the single market and customs union.

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Boris Johnson, as well as senior Cabinet ministers, including Michael Gove, have insisted a free trade agreement must be struck before the end of the transition period.

This is a deadline the Government and UK negotiators have refused to extend.

Trade talks between the UK and EU began in March but several rounds of talks have ended in stalemate and five months on, little progress has been made.

Both sides have lashed out at each other during talks and are so far refusing to give any ground on crucial red lines such as fishing access, the level playing field and state aid.

The latest round of talks begins in Brussels on Monday.

The UK and EU want a deal agreed by next month, so it can go through a lengthy ratification process in the European Parliament in October.

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Brexit candle-lit vigil held as campaigners 'mourn' quitting the EU without a deal - Express

When the result of the Brexit referendum came through it was welcomed as a great thing by Donald Trump, who was visiting his Turnberry golf club in Ayrshire.

Joe Biden, then vice-president, was just 180 miles away giving a speech at Dublin Castle, which he noted was so long the symbolic centre of British occupation and oppression of Ireland, as part of a trip to receive an honorary doctorate from Trinity College.

Wed have preferred a different outcome, Mr Biden told Trinity scholars after receiving an honorary degree, as he warned about reactionary politicians and demagogues peddling xenophobia, nationalism and isolationism in Europe and the US.

Kamala Harris, Mr Bidens running-mate for the November election, at a Covid briefing in Delaware last week

MANDEL NGAN/AFP

Nor did Mr Biden, 77, mince his words last December when the man hailed by the American president

Read more:

What would a Biden presidency mean for Brexit, trade and the UK? - The Times