Michael McGough now admits that people are going to lose their jobs: Some weak businesses will close post virus, Brexit or no Brexit (Stop the scare stories, Opinion, July 30).

We all know that more will close in the case of a no-deal Brexit.

It will not be the fault of the employees of these businesses.

It may not be the fault of the people running the businesses if they fail due to the change in the economic environment.

This neo-Darwinian concept, survival of the fittest, takes no account of human suffering.

Darwin recognised changes which took multi-generations to happen. A company can close overnight but it will take years to establish a new one.

In the meantime countless people will be out of work, trying to exist - you cant call it living - on universal benefit.

It will be little consolation to them that the tax, which they no longer have to pay because their incomes are so low, is not going to a body which has fashioned our economy for forty years.

Chris Sumner

By email

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Letter: Brexit will close businesses and put people out of work - East London and West Essex Guardian Series

Law360, London (August 10, 2020, 5:42 PM BST) -- A London judge has cleared English insurer Rothesay to transfer 114 million ($149 million) worth of insurance policies to an Irish insurer to ensure the plans are administered after the U.K.'s transition out of the European Union becomes finalized.

High Court Judge Richard Snowden signed off on Rothesay Life PLC's plans to shift 400 life insurance policies, or annuities, to the Dublin-based Monument Insurance DAC under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000.

Rothesay and Monument signed the agreement in 2019 over concerns the English insurer would no longer be able to manage the plans after Brexit. The U.K. left the...

In the legal profession, information is the key to success. You have to know whats happening with clients, competitors, practice areas, and industries. Law360 provides the intelligence you need to remain an expert and beat the competition.

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Rothesay Cleared To Shift EU Policies To Dublin After Brexit - Law360

Just before the EU referendum in 2016, the American political scientist Andrew Moravcsik wrote in the Financial Times that Brexit should be seen as a kabuki drama stylised but meaningless posturing. Four years on, it is clear that nothing could be further from the truth. Even if the UK does manage to strike a deal with the EU, relations between the two have been fundamentally altered.

The Withdrawal Agreement, signed off and ratified earlier this year, settled the rights of EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens in the EU, as well as the UKs financial liabilities the Brexit bill. A protocol on Northern Ireland was also agreed. So that a hard border with the South can be avoided, Northern Ireland will continue to follow some single-market rules. This implicitly means putting in place what Boris Johnson had categorically ruled out: border checks. We can do a deal without checks on the Irish border, he declared a year ago. The government has since acknowledged that there will be minimal checks.

Northern Ireland aside, there is no agreement on any aspect of the future relationship. The prelude to the latest round of Brexit talks was Johnsons call for the injection of a bit of ooomph. Both sides supposedly geared up for an intensification of negotiations. But when the talks concluded on 23 July not much had changed: Michel Barnier, the EUs chief negotiator, said the two sides were still far away from an agreement; his UK counterpart, David Frost, admitted there were considerable gaps. Barniers gloomy forecast was that a trade deal was now unlikely.

Barnier hasnt sounded positive about any of the negotiations he has been involved in since the referendum. The two sides talk past each other, and make accusations of bad faith. The EU claims the UK has reneged on its commitments, in particular to the level playing field agreed standards on environmental protection, workers rights, taxation and state aid that was in the Political Declaration made at the same time as the Withdrawal Agreement. The UK government, meanwhile, makes clear its irritation at the EUs refusal to give the UK the sort of deal it has supposedly signed with other countries.

These claims are a mixture of fact and fiction. The Political Declaration was supposed to provide a model for the future relationship, but since then there has been a general election and the UK has a new government, which is entitled to a different view on the issue. The EU might respond that it was Johnson who signed the declaration; certainly his cavalier attitude to it hasnt made him seem any more trustworthy. Whats more, the notion that the government is merely asking for what other countries have been granted is misleading. Not least, it ignores the claims to special treatment that London is making. Unsurprisingly, the EUs trade deal with Canada had different priorities and didnt devote any space at all to, say, road haulage.

Behind the rhetoric, real sticking points and differences of principle remain. The EU at first seemed to expect to retain its current level of access to British fishing waters and was keen to avoid an annual discussion about quotas of the sort it has with countries like Norway. It now appears to be emphasising the need for a sustainable and long-term solution, and shows signs of accepting that this will mean less access for its boats. Barnier, though, complained on 23 July that Britain hadnt made any compromises and was still demanding the near total exclusion of European boats.

The level playing field is another major problem. It is not, as some in the UK have claimed, a last-minute trap sprung on London by Brussels. It has always been one of the EUs conditions. It is a demand rooted in self-interest: a large competitor economy on its doorstep represents a challenge. If the UK were given access to the EU market, it might succeed in undercutting EU firms. This is why Brussels is insisting on guarantees regarding UK regulatory standards; its also the reason it is insisting on stricter rules than it felt necessary to enforce with smaller and more distant trading partners such as Canada. But, as David Frost made clear in a speech in Brussels earlier this year:

It is central to our vision that we must have the ability to set laws that suit us So to think that we might accept EU supervision on so-called level playing field issues simply fails to see the point of what we are doing. That isnt a simple negotiating position which might move under pressure it is the point of the whole project.

The Political Declaration stipulated the need for robust commitments to ensure a level playing field in order to prevent distortions of trade. The EUs negotiating mandate states that any agreement should uphold common high standards, and corresponding high standards over time. This isnt incompatible with Frosts position. Both sides could agree to a non-regression clause, committing them to maintaining the standards they currently share, without any need to introduce a role for EU law or worse still from Londons perspective for the EUs Court of Justice. Another possibility is an agreement that allows unilateral sanctions if one side diverges on standards.

State aid a countrys provision of financial help to domestic companies or organisations, which potentially distorts competition and trade within the EU is the most intractable sticking point. In part, this is because the EU takes a hard line on the issue. Its opening position is that any agreement should ensure the application of Union state aid rules to and in the United Kingdom. Given that, as far as the UK government is concerned, the purpose of Brexit is to prevent the application of EU rules to the UK, it isnt hard to see the problem. Barnier has signalled some flexibility on this in recent weeks: We need, he said, to work together to come up with the appropriate toolbox to ensure fair, sustainable competition. But the Johnson government hasnt yet indicated what compromises it may be willing to make, or what its new competition policy might look like. For many supporters of Brexit, taking power back from Brussels wasnt supposed to be an end in itself, but a means to the end of rolling back the regulations imposed on the UK by Brussels. Indeed, one reason the EU has been so keen to tie the UK to level playing field conditions, and is so reluctant to believe the UKs repeated assurances that it has no intention of cutting regulatory standards, is that Brexiters have spent thirty years insisting that deregulation was the prize to be gained from leaving.

There is an additional complication here. Both Article 10 and Annex 5 of the Northern Ireland protocol make it clear that EU state aid rules will apply to the UK where trade in goods between Northern Ireland and the EU is concerned. This means that any UK-wide tax incentive provided to businesses would be subject to scrutiny by the European Commission. EU competition law will therefore continue to have some effect on the UK as a whole whatever is negotiated in the future relationship.

Despite all this, it would be unwise to bet against a deal being reached, for the simple reason that both sides want one. The EU wont sign a deal at any price, but the Commission and the member states would very much prefer even a limited agreement to no trade deal, if only to limit the scale of economic disruption. For the UK, the argument in favour of a deal is even stronger. Politically, there is more to be gained from signing a deal than from not signing one. Think back to last year. Johnson was hailed as a hero for as his cheerleaders would have it defying the odds and negotiating a new withdrawal agreement. In fact, he had done nothing of the sort: he signed up to terms that both he and Theresa May had previously rejected as unacceptable. In fact, because it removed the all-UK backstop that May negotiated, which was unpopular with many member states because it gave the whole of the UK access to the EU market without a commitment to abide by all its rules, Johnsons deal was actually more popular in Brussels.

Despite this, the simple fact of his having come up with a new agreement contributed significantly to the success of an election campaign centred on Johnsons ability to get Brexit done. So much of the current debate concerns the dangers of the failure to reach a trade deal that securing any agreement at all will again be seen as a triumph. This is just as well for Johnson. Given the time constraints and the current positions of both sides, its hard to imagine that any agreement will amount to more than a thin free-trade agreement encompassing tariffs and quotas for goods. Any deal likely to be secured by the end of October (the deadline set by Barnier to give the EU and the member states time to ratify it) would exclude a number of areas of current co-operation. The EU provides the framework for cross-national collaboration on issues from foreign policy to defence to operations dealing with terrorism and organised crime. It is hard to see agreement being reached on all of them in the time remaining. Continued discussion will be necessary either bilaterally with key member states (defence collaboration with France, for example), or with the EU well after the end of formal negotiations. If talks were to break down in the autumn, trade would revert to WTO terms, leading to disruptions at borders, higher prices, and possibly shortages. In these circumstances, it is hard to imagine how anything approaching constructive dialogue could take place.

Either a thin trade deal or no deal at all would have significant repercussions for the domestic economy. Any deal that involves the removal of tariffs and quotas will ease trade in goods. But it will not, even for manufacturers, mean a continuation of the status quo. EU rules of origin were described as amounting to a hidden hard Brexit in a recent report for the Food and Drink Federation and the National Association of British and Irish Flour Millers. The report notes that UK and EU food and drink manufacturers may find that the products they make with imported commodities for the current EU/UK market will not meet origin requirements for preferential trade between the two. They give as an example such ingredients as tropical fruits, which currently have no bearing on a products right to be traded freely between the EU and the UK, and French wheat used in a UK biscuit. Rules of origin will certainly complicate trade with the EU and, along with checks to ensure conformity with EU standards, will impede the free flow of trade across the UK-EU border.

These border checks will also mean that the just in time supply chains used by the car industry, for example, will no longer be practicable. Honda has estimated that a 15-minute delay at the border will add around 850,000 to its annual costs. HMRC estimates that customs declarations will cost businesses around 15 billion a year, while fulfilling rules of origin requirements will add another 5.5-6 billion. On top of this are the costs associated with ensuring compliance with EU standards costs in terms of the delays imposed by checks and the need to seek EU as well as national approval. The UK will no longer, for instance, be able to grant type-approval for cars confirming that they reach specified performance standards intended for the EU market.

Thats just for goods. Services make up 80 per cent of the British economy and 40 per cent of the UKs services exports go to the EU. Here, the impact looks likely to be even greater. To facilitate trade in services, governments generally have to agree to align their domestic regulations: passporting allows British financial services firms to operate across the Continent. Mutual recognition of qualifications means a British architect can get a job in Lisbon as easily as in Liverpool. Freedom of movement allows firms to send their staff to work in other member states. All these arrangements will come to an end on 31 December. As Frost intimated, regulatory alignment is anathema to a government that sees regulatory independence as a principal reason for leaving the EU. Ending freedom of movement was one of the central demands of the Leave campaign. The EU, meanwhile, has made it clear that it sees no reason to allow the UK to keep the bits of the existing system it finds useful such as the mutual recognition of qualifications while opting out of others. Documents recently published by the European Commission outlining preparations for Brexit make it clear that while Brussels will continue to allow the City of London access to European customers where there are possible risks to financial stability, its aim is that such business will sooner or later be based within the Union.

The modelling done by my institute, UK in a Changing Europe, estimates that the negative impact over ten years of the kind of deal currently being negotiated would be of the order of 6.4 per cent of GDP. This is in contrast to 4.9 per cent for Mays deal and 8.1 per cent for no deal. Our most optimistic scenario suggests that a Brexit deal will leave the public finances 16 billion worse off (49 billion in our most pessimistic scenario, about the same size as the budget for the Ministry of Defence, and more than twice the long-term increase in funding for the NHS announced in 2018).

The pandemic itself will of course have an enormous impact on the economy. And there are some who see an opportunity here. The scale of the problems caused by Covid-19 might help disguise the impact of Brexit. With supply chains already badly affected, a steep rise in unemployment widely expected, and the focus being on restarting the economy as quickly as possible, there couldnt be a better opportunity to mask the disruption caused by the end of the transition period. It may indeed make sense to bundle the private sector adaptations needed to cope with the pandemic together with those required to adjust to a new form of trade with the EU. Yet its something of a gamble. For one thing, Brexit will affect the economy differently from the way the virus has affected it. The retail and hospitality sectors have suffered the brunt of the impact of the virus, but sectors such as the pharmaceutical industry are the ones that stand to be worst hit by Brexit. Although some areas of economic activity, such as food supply chains, weathered Covid-19 impressively after early problems, the border checks imposed by Brexit may well achieve what the pandemic could not, and cause disruptions to supply.

Economic policy will be the single greatest concern of both the government and the electorate for some time to come, but Conservative MPs are far from united on the appropriate response. The new chancellor, Rishi Sunak, claims to be unencumbered by dogma, but his predecessor, Sajid Javid, has admitted being concerned about the level of national debt; and Andrea Leadsom, until recently Johnsons secretary for business, energy and industrial strategy, says that current levels of government spending make her uneasy. While the voters who propelled Johnson to power last December were mostly socially conservative Leavers, they werent in agreement about economic policy. Of the voters many of them in red wall seats who switched in 2019 from Labour to the Tories, 84 per cent believe there is one law for the rich, another for the poor, compared to 22 per cent of Tory Party members and 5 per cent of Conservative MPs. Asked whether management will take advantage of workers, 78 per cent of Labour to Tory switchers agreed; the figure for Conservative MPs was again 5 per cent.

Expectations in those new Conservative seats have been raised by Johnsons rhetoric about levelling up the country. Even if this ambition is sincere, its hard to see him making any progress with it. For one thing, Covid-19 will have an unevenly distributed impact on the economy. The parts of the country worst hit by post-pandemic job losses are likely to be in precisely those left behind areas with lots of low-skilled jobs in retail and manufacturing. And then theres Brexit. Here too there is likely to be a significant correlation between the scale of the economic impact on regions and their relative wealth. Some forecasts suggest that Leave-voting areas will be the worst affected by Brexit because their economies are disproportionately dependent on trade with the EU. Meanwhile, support for Scottish independence is up to 55 per cent. It may yet turn out that this is the consequence of Brexit that consumes the largest amount of the governments time over the next few years.

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Anand Menon In case you'd forgotten: Will there be a Brexit deal? LRB 13 August 2020 - London Review of Books

A few weeks prior to the Scottish independence referendum in September 2014, I travelled on a train from Glasgow to London, with a Sri Lankan colleague.

Shortly into the journey, we overheard a lively argument coming from the table opposite, on whether Scotland should remain as part of the UK or not?

My colleague looked at me and stated if such a debate had taken place on public transport in Colombo or Kandy heads would have been cut off.

Six years ago, not a single shot was fired in anger when Scots decided against becoming an independent nation. The turnout was a record 84.6%. A generation of young people were politically engaged as 16 and 17-year-olds were also allowed to vote. The Scottish independence referendum was a festival of politics compared with the horror show of Brexit.

Although there was no civil unrest, it would be foolish to downplay the tension caused by giving the public the opportunity to answer - should Scotland be an independent country? This specific question had led to disagreements between friends, families, work colleagues, which to this day have not completely healed.

Interested observers around the world would have looked on with either astonishment or admiration that the UK Government, through the Edinburgh Agreement gave the Scottish Government the necessary powers for a legally binding referendum to take place.

Imagine the Indian or Spanish Governments following a similar example and agreeing for ballots to take place in Kashmir or Catalonia. Hell would have to freeze over before that happens.

The Scottish National Party (SNP) has been in power since 2007 and Brexit has given the Scottish First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, added justification to push for a second referendum.

Although the decision to leave the EU was a UK whole vote, Scotland backed Remain by 62%. However Prime Minister Boris Johnson is adamant that he will not give the necessary authority for one to take place?Recent polls show that the majority of Scots favour independence.

How will a second Scottish independence referendum fare? Will it be a carnival of political engagement again or will it be divisive and toxic as Brexit?

Police Scotland has expressed great concern that any future independence debate could be hijacked by bigots.Moreover whilst immigration dominated the Brexit vote, such a subject was on the periphery during the Scottish referendum. However, there are some signs that such a topic could become more prominent if and when Scotland decides its future again.

The killing of George Floyd in the US placed the spotlight again on Sheku Bayoh who died in police custody in Scotland. According to his family racism was a factor in his death.

On two separate occasions in June this year riot police converged on to Glasgows George Square to separate Black Lives Matters activists and those welcoming refugees from members of the National Defence League who claimed to be defending statues. Nicola Sturgeon strongly condemned racist thugs and described the scenes from the heart of the countrys largest city as disgraceful.

Speaking at the Scottish Parliament the Justice Minister Humza Yousaf and Labours Anas Sarwar provoked a wider debate about the lack of ethnic minority representation in Scottish society. Both were at the receiving end of vitriolic online abuse.

The debate on immigration or race is not restricted to minority communities or EU nationals. Last month Nicola Sturgeon stated that the Scottish Government could close the border between England and Scotland to prevent the spread of the coronavirus.

Videos emerged online of a small group of pro-independence supporters, protesting close to the border, waving Scottish flags and displaying banners, reading keep Scotland Covid Free and England out of Scotland. On another video a protestor was telling visitors to stay the f**k away.

Opposition politicians described such scenes as disgraceful and ones that would damage the Scottish tourist industry. Others claimed that protestors were inspired by comments made by SNP politicians.

On social media Humza Yousaf wrote: If you are a racist you are no friend of mine and no part of the [independence] movement I belong to. Horrible, reprehensible and vile. Luckily these morons dont represent the Scotland I know and love.

More recently a former founding member of a grassroots independence group, All Under One Banner, claimed the movement had been damaged by anti-English racists.

Whichever side wins, should a second vote take place, is likely to find the country more divided with the prospect of unifying its people a very difficult proposition.

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Scottish independence: Is it becoming as divisive and toxic as Brexit? - Asian Image

Brexit - a trading impasse looms

Quietly, relentlessly, the UK appears to be being shepherded into crashing out of the European Union with no trading deal in place at the end of the year.

While the consequences of this process are still being largely successfully shielded from the general public, the business community cant afford to postpone the crucial decisions which need to be made - and whether there is a deal or not, these will still include tariffs, taxes and licenses, says Access to Export.

The Linton-based advisory company has prepared a Brexit International Trade Preparation Checklist for the Cambridgeshire Chambers of Commerce - and the terrible waste of time that Brexit has involved is laid bare in all its gory detail.

Even with a good deal in the EU-UK negotiations, Access to Export warns UK businesses will be paying tariffs to export and import goods both at the send stage and the receive stage from January 1.

Every companys situation will be different, says Access to Export managing director Chris Willers, so we have used our wealth of hands-on worldwide international trade experience to put together this comprehensive international trade checklist.

The checklist includes a series of questions that every trader should ask themselves. Each trader needs to be able to answer each question to ensure they are properly prepared for trade with the EU from January 1 onwards.

Access to Export was founded in 1999 and has an office in Linton and another in Southampton. The report took two weeks to compile, says managing director Chris Willers.

The Brexit International Trade Preparation Checklist summarises and crystallises a lot of the information being published by the government.

The report confirms that every single order will require contract-specific negotiations between the buyer and seller including on freight, insurance, customs export declarations, customs clearance responsibilities, payment and licenses.

The facts include:

- Goods will be subject to customs procedures

- Exports will be subject to duty and taxes at destination

- Import/export documentation will be required

- Import VAT will be payable

- Import tariffs may apply if there is no trade deal

From an international trading viewpoint it all depends on the outcome of trade negotiations between the EU and the UK government, says Chris. The UK government is trying to achieve a free trade agreement so goods can move as they did which means no incoming taxes but goods will still have to go through customs.

Are there any benefits to trading with the EU without being in the EU?

From an international trading perspective there arent really any trading advantages to Brexit, says Chris. We might manage to maintain the status quo in terms of having no import or export taxes, but what there will be is that goods entering or leaving the UK will have to go through a customs process where they dont at the moment.

Everyone is worried about a second wave at the moment, says Chambers chief executive John Bridge, but that might not be Covid-19, it might be Brexit.

Brexit is stark reality. People are beginning to understand what it means in terms of documentation. Its not just the UK there are businesses in France and Germany who are as concerned if no more so about interruptions.

Meanwhile the furlough scheme will cease at the end of October, andJohn Bridge OBE, chief executiveof the Cambridgeshire Chambers of Commerce, says it has already proved its value.

Its been really good, he says. HMRC set the scheme up quickly and the payments have been really prompt. It hasnt saved every job but its saved a lot of jobs.

On August 1, the government ceased paying 80 per cent of salary: it now pays 80 per cent of salary minus National Insurance and pension (a cut of around five per cent).

From September 1, the furlough drops off to 70 per cent of salary, with employers expected to make up the extra 10 per cent or more to qualify.

After October 1, the government pays 60 per cent of salary, also on condition that the employer tops that up to 80 per cent.

Theres a lot of people falling between stools and not getting any financial support, notes John.

The next Chambers meeting is on August 27, with the Minister for Employment, Mims Davies, as the special guest. Job challenges stemming from the pandemic and leaving the EU will be discussed. The minister will provide updates on government employment support initiatives, including Kickstart.

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Brexit checklist warns of inevitable red tape for exports and imports - Cambridge Independent

The Bank of England (BoE) has predicted that the economic downturn in the UK economy might be less severe than it thought at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

British banks also have enough capital to keep lending to businesses and absorb the huge losses likely to result from the pandemic, the BoE said.

There is also confidence regarding the impact of Brexit on the UK's financial services once the transition period expires at the end of the year.

The central bank says that in the event of no deal being reached between the UK and the EU, most risks to stability "have been mitigated". But it adds that "some disruption is possible", "further action is needed" and the full impact cannot be anticipated.

The relatively upbeat assessments come in two reports published by the bank on Thursday.

The BoE warns, however, that it could take a longer time for the economy to return to its pre-covonavirus size -- and that amid high uncertainty the banking system might struggle in the face of "severe economic outcomes".

The central bank opened the door to providing more monetary stimulus as Britain reopens after the pandemic lockdowns. Its Financial Policy Committee (FPC) warned that defensive action like scaling back on lending would be costly to both banks and the wider economy.

"It remains the FPCs judgement that banks have the capacity, and it is in the collective interest of the banking system, to continue to support businesses and households through this period," the committee said.

The BoE estimates that the economy probably shrank by 23% in the second quarter but is already recovering. Its prediction of a 9.5% overall contraction in the economy for 2020 was more optimistic than its forecast in May for a 14% drop.

However, it says the economy probably wont return to pre-pandemic levels until the end of 2021 as spending by consumers and businesses remains weak.

Committee minutes show there is concern about rising rates of unemployment, which it's feared could prove to be more persistent than expected. The jobless rate is forecast to rise to 7.5% this year, from 3.75% in 2019.

"The outlook for the UK and global economies remains unusually uncertain," the bank said in a statement. "It will depend critically on the evolution of the pandemic, measures taken to protect public health, and how governments, households and businesses respond to these."

"Weve got huge uncertainty and a very big downside risk," warned Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.

The BoEs Monetary Policy Committee kept its benchmark interest rate at a record low of 0.1%.

Some analysts were surprised by the central banks assessments.

"The Bank of Englands overly optimistic updated economic projections leave the door wide open for more monetary stimulus later this year,'" wrote Kallum Pickering, senior economist at Berenberg bank, in a note that began with the headline "Verging on unrealistic".

"Relative to the obvious challenges ahead linked to the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighted by the recent re-imposition of modest containment measures in major parts of the UK, the V-shaped recovery that the Bank of England continues to project seems unlikely, to put it mildly."

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Bank of England cautiously upbeat on UK economy, banks and... Brexit - Euronews

Like me, you might be finding that the days are going slowly, but the months are flying by. To that end, were in August, with several risk events on the horizon through to the end of the year. Theyll impact our lives in different ways, as well as our investments. For most of us, that includes our Stocks and Shares ISA. Its the tool most of us use to house our stocks in the most tax-efficient way. With an allowance of 20,000 per year, its likely you hold most (if not all) of your stocks and shares within the ISA.

Your Stocks and Shares ISA has already survived the stock market crash in March. The risk event that caused this was the closing down of economies due to the coronavirus. With lockdown being enforced around the world, consumer spending dried up. This was compounded by a lack of social interaction and travel. With the exception of firms offering basic necessities, the pandemic negatively impacted revenue for most FTSE 100 businesses.

For most of April, the UK was registering new case numbers of at least 4,000 per day. This is now down to around 700 per day. This move lower has been well correlated with the FTSE 100 index rallying from the lows seen towards the end of the first quarter. So its logical to think that a second wave of the virus could pose a big risk for the stocks within your ISA. Yet, given that the second wave of the virus is not confirmed, I dont believe its the largest risk to my ISA for the rest of the year.

This turns me to Brexit. This is a very real risk, given that theres a hard deadline at the end of this year. The UK government have made it clear they want to get a deal done before December. As we saw at the back end of last year, the FTSE 100 is very sensitive to Brexit headlines. This is especially true when things come down to the wire.

One other risk that I think could start to come on investors radars soon is negative interest rates. Current rates stand at 0.1%, but with the economy struggling, there is a lot of chatter about taking rates below zero. This isnt unheard of; Europe has been in this situation of negative rates for several years. This could be a definite short-term risk to stocks within the ISA, as it gives the impression that the economy is really struggling. But in the longer term, this risk could turn into a positive. Firms will be able to borrow money at cheaper levels, and more people are likely to invest in stocks given the opportunity cost of holding cash.

You may disagree with me on the above risks, and the priority of them. Its very subjective! But the main takeaway from this is that you need to keep a close eye on your Stocks and Shares ISA. Not only this, but the volatility well likely see from any of the above risks materialising could present an opportunity to buy. Ive outlined one FTSE 100 bargain Id considering buying already due to the coronavirus here.

The post Coronavirus, Brexit, negative rates. Whats the biggest risk to my Stocks and Shares ISA? appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

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jonathansmith1 has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

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Coronavirus, Brexit, negative rates. What's the biggest risk to my Stocks and Shares ISA? - Yahoo Finance UK

Plans to store piles of earth in a field next to the site of a post-Brexit lorry park have been described as "environmental vandalism" by angry residents.

The Department for Transport wants to put soil on land alongside its newly-acquired 27-acre plot in Ashford as it continues to work on the controversial holding area project for up to 2,000 trucks.

Bosses say they plan to keep the height of soil stockpiles to a minimum, but frustrated neighbours say storing earth in the field near Junction 10a of the M20 is not welcome.

The government sent a letter to residents on Friday explaining the Sevington works, which will see part of the hedgerow in Highfield Lane removed to create an access point.

But parish councillor Stewart Ross, who lives nearby in Kingsford Street, says bosses are "spoiling the countryside".

"It's environmental vandalism," he said.

"They are dumping it on what is effectively a virgin field - crops are growing on it at the moment but it will be no use to man or beast once they've put poor quality soil on it.

"The worry is that it is the thin end of the wedge."

Residents living in Mersham have long feared the land which separates the village from the lorry park site would be developed.

Mr Ross, who has lived in Mersham for 35 years, added: "The land is not in Ashford Borough Council's Local Plan and we want assurances from the government that the land will not be developed.

"I think there is general concern about what is going to happen because the government seems to be ploughing on without any real consultation.

"The communication has been very poor.

"You would have thought they would hold a public meeting to relay to residents what they are planning to do, but there has been nothing like that at all.

"It has all been done very stealthily."

On Saturday, the Village Alliance campaign group launched a petition calling for a green buffer zone to be created on land between Mersham and the lorry park site part of which is where the government now wants to store the topsoil.

The group is urging Ashford Borough Council (ABC) to use its strategic gap in perpetuity policy, which protects ancient settlements and countryside from encroachment.

But in the letter sent to residents on Friday, Haroona Chughtai, deputy director of the 'future EU roads relationship', said "there is no planned development" for the land, which is to the east of the lorry park.

He said: "However, you will start to see movement of vehicles and machinery over the coming months on that parcel of land starting from Wednesday in a limited capacity as the Department for Transport intends to store topsoil from the western parcel on it temporarily, limited to 12 months.

"The department is very conscious of any potential visual impact that storing a significant amount of earth and therefore our plan is to keep the height of soil stockpiles to a minimum wherever possible.

"To transport the material from west to east, the plan is to crossover at certain sections of hedgerow running down Highfield Lane.

"We are not yet in a position to do so due to ecological reasons, and so in the meantime this will be achieved by using the turning circle at the northern end of Highfield Lane through an existing access from the west field to the east."

When built, the DfT is planning "two primary uses" for the Sevington site - a temporary lorry holding area in case there is disruption at Dover and as a border control post to check truckers have the correct paperwork.

Bosses say they won't need to submit a planning application to Ashford Borough Council, but will use a Special Development Order (SDO) instead, which allows the Secretary of State to grant planning permission.

To sign the Village Alliance's green buffer zone petition, visit bit.ly/31GtkkU

Signed petition forms can be left at Mersham Village Stores, The Royal Oak or the Farriers Arms until Sunday, August 30.

If you need your form collecting, or any further information, phone 07732 382624.

Signed petitions can also be sent to thevillageallianceTVA@gmail.com

If residents have any queries about the planned works at the MOJO site, they should email RoadsEUExit@dtf.gov.uk

How is Brexit going to affect Kent? For all the latest news, views and analysis visit our dedicated page here

Read more: All the latest news from Ashford

The rest is here:

'It's environmental vandalism - they're spoiling the countryside' - Kent Online

An article in the Dutch, left-leaning newspaper Het Parool led with the headline Despite Brexit, multinationals prefer London over Amsterdam or Paris this week. The piece reports that the feared exit [of companies] from Great Britain is not happening as expected, and highlights the fact that Unilever decided to:

Reportedly, the opportunity offered by Londons capital markets trumps any risks resulting from Brexit, an element that could also play a role in Shell possibly moving its headquarters from the Netherlands to the UK.

The article goes on to point out that despite relocations by some major companies (such as Dyson, Honda and Panasonic) firms have not rushed to leave Britain. At least 1,441 companies have even recently moved to the UK, according to official statistics published in November.

Goldman Sachs has recently decided to build a new 1 billion headquarters in London and city firms are less worried about Brexit, having spent millions of pounds on precautions for any negative consequences. Before the pandemic, the IMF issued a prediction that the UK economy would outpace the eurozone for the first two years after Brexit, concluding that despite the risk of no deal, Great Britain remains a magnet for capital, even in the eye of a storm.

Notably, the article adds that:

The presence of Prime Minister Boris Johnson is reassuring, despite his actions during the pandemic that are a cause for concern. As opposed to his predecessor, Theresa May, he does get along with business. He is opposed to regulation and for free trade. Multinationals now also fear theLabour party less, since the moderate Keir Starmer was chosen as its leader.

Analyses like this demonstrate that mainland Europe is now finally coming to terms with Brexit, based on facts on the ground.

There is, however, an import caveat: it still matters what kind of trade arrangement the UK agrees with the EU before 1 January. Will the UK manage to reconcile regulatory and trade sovereignty with maintaining access to Continental markets? Will it manage to compensate the unavoidable loss of a degree of market access with competitive measures, such as the creation of freeports? We need to wait to find out.

An outstanding question in the ongoing negotiations is to what extent the EU will drop its insistence on level playing field minimum standards for UK regulations, in return for continued market access to UK businesses. A ban on state aid is part of the level playing field, but the EU has just signaled some flexibility on this.

Given the way the EU Commission often reinterprets tax breaks as state aid, this is a welcome development. A compromise could be the creation of a dispute resolution mechanism on any state aid granted to UK companies, instead of obliging London to follow EU rules straight away. This concept should perhaps also be applied to market access more generally. The UK could agree that after December, it will continue maintaining all EU rules it has taken over in domestic legislation, but pledge to notify the EU every time it intends to issue divergent regulation. This concession should of course depend on the EU granting a lot more market access than it has offered so far.

In this way, cliff edges, tariffs and economic damage could be avoided at the end of the year. Involving the EU in the British legislative process could also help inform UK lawmakers about how they can minimise the loss of market access when diverging from EU regulation. When it comes to chemicals, the UK government may simply opt to shy away from different standards for chemical products, due to the importance of the EU market. While on digital innovation, the UK may decide it isnt worth constraining British innovators with GDPR and other similar innovation-killing regulatory straitjackets, and diverge from the EU.

In July, the UK compromised by accepting an overall governance framework, rather than a patchwork of sector-by-sector deals, and the EU side moved at least according to Brexit negotiator David Frost on the role of the European Court of Justice. If the two sides manage to sort their level playing field issues, only fisheries access remains as the last big sticking point. An EU diplomat has told Reuters that fisheries won't wreck the whole thing, which is probably right, if only because the UK wouldnt be able to consume all the fish it is entitled to catch in its own waters.

With all of this out of the way, both the EU and the UK can then focus on recovering from the massive and ongoing damage inflicted by the pandemic.

Now that Europeans are finally coming around to the idea that Brexit wont be the complete disaster many of them originally predicted and that post-Brexit Britain wont be the desperately dependent and helpless island they envisioned, they should be more willing to engage in the talks.

Pieter Cleppe is a non-resident fellow of the Property Rights Alliance, based in Brussels. @pietercleppe

Originally posted here:

Europe is finally coming to terms with Brexit - Spectator.co.uk

Boris Johnson seemed to have ended the Conservative partys agonies over Brexit last year by negotiating a new withdrawal agreement with the EU, and winning the backing of every single Tory MP at least once a rump of rebellious Remainers had been purged.

The hardline Brexiteers who brought down Theresa May over fears her Brexit deal would leave the UK in Brussels orbit indefinitely, could have been expected to kick up a fuss over her successors replacement agreement. While it ditched the backstop arrangement they so hated, it was full of other provisions previously opposed by Eurosceptics, such as a hefty divorce payment.

Whats more, the new withdrawal agreement creates a border in the Irish Sea with customs and regulatory checks on goods crossing from Great Britain to Northern Ireland, a provision loathed by the Democratic Unionist Party which was closely allied to the Tory Brexiteers throughout the May era.

Nonetheless, not a single member of the European Research Group voted against the deal, instead hailing Mr Johnson as a political hero for persuading the EU to revisit the original deal. During the general election campaign they took to social media to boast of the oven ready agreement, and after the Conservative victory it was duly passed into law.

Only now, six months after Britain legally left the EU, have MPs begun to kick up a fuss. Former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith said this week: Whilst the UK wants to have a good trade relationship with the EU as a sovereign state, the EU has different ideas. They want our money and they want to stop us being a competitor. The withdrawal agreement we signed last year sadly helps them. He pointed specifically to provisions making the UK responsible for part of the EUs loan book, which he claimed could land the Treasury with a 160bn bill.

Last month the Centre for Brexit Policy issued a report, endorsed by veteran backbenchers Bill Cash and Owen Paterson, demanding the wholesale replacement of the withdrawal agreement which it called a poison pill. The think-tank is led by John Longworth, a businessman and ex-MEP who was so enthusiastic about Mr Johnsons deal he left the Brexit Party and joined the Conservatives in order to endorse it.

The irony of senior Brexiteers turning on a deal they once enthusiastically welcomed is palpable, and has been the cause of schadenfreude for some Remainers who are still licking their wounds. But it raises the political stakes for the Prime Minister: after clashing with backbenchers over China and Covid-19, he could find it increasingly tricky to offer any concessions to Brussels in trade negotiations this year, fearing a rebellion from the same people who doomed his predecessors premiership.

View original post here:

The next Tory rebellion could be on Brexit as some MPs turn against withdrawal agreement - iNews

The UKneeds to be more "realistic and pragmatic" in Brexit negotiations with the European Union, Germany's European affairs minister told AFP in an interview.

Expressing deep disappointment over deadlocked negotiations over Britain's future relationship with the bloc, Michael Roth said he was "disappointed that London is shifting further and further away from the political declaration agreed between us as a reliable basis for negotiations".

"I would like those responsible in London to be more realistic and pragmatic. The Brits are known for the latter," he said.

More than four years after the UK voted in a referendum to leave the EU, and after tortuous divorce talks, the two sides are negotiating on all aspects of their ties, from trade to security, from 2021 onwards.

The two key stumbling blocks are access to British fishing waters and the EU's demand that the UKtie itself closely to the bloc's state aid, labour and environmental standards to ensure it does not undercut the EU's single market with poor-quality goods.

The EU says a deal needs to be done by October to allow time for ratification by the end of the year.

Both sides have said the talks may be stalling.

Latest Brexit stories

The rest is here:

Germany urges UK to be more 'realistic' over Brexit - RTE.ie

The number of British people emigrating to European countries has risen by 30% since the 2016 Brexit referendum, according to a new study, which warned of a potential "brain drain" of citizens as they settle in continental Europe.

The number of UK citizens settling in European Union countries each year was 73,642 between 2016 and 2018, up from 56,832 between 2008 and 2015.

The figures, based on OECD and Eurostat data, come from a joint study by the Oxford-in-Berlin Research Partnership and the Berlin-based WZB Social Science Centre, and were first reported by The Guardian newspaper.

The UK formally left the EU in January and is currently in a transition period that will expire at the end of the year.

As part of its Brexit plans, Boris Johnson's government has pledged to end the free movement rights which gives EU citizens the right to live, work, and settle in other member states without applying for residency there. This means UK citizens will no longer have the same freedoms to live and work in the EU as they do now.

Daniel Tetlow of Oxford-in-Berlin, the report's co-author, said Brexit had been the "by far the most dominant driver of migration decisions since 2016."

Daniel Auer of WZB, the co-author, said: 'These increases in numbers are of a magnitude that you would expect when a country is hit by a major economic or political crisis."

The study also recorded a 500% increase in UK citizens who moved to the EU and then obtained passports for the countries they had moved to. Germany saw the biggest rise of 2,000%, with 31,600 UK citizens having naturalised there since 2016.

Liberal Democrat Foreign Affairs and Brexit spokesperson Alistair Carmichael, said the figures were "unsurprising" with "the government still failing to guarantee the rights we all currently enjoy through the EU."

He said: "To avoid a brain drain and yet another hit to our economy, the Conservative Government must secure our rights and freedoms. Stripping these to appease an impossible image of what Brexit means would be unforgivable."

Naomi Smith, CEO of Best For Britain, the UK campaign for a comprehensive trade deal with the EU, said: "With a second wave of the virus on the horizon, threatening severe shortages in a number of key sectors, it's a sad indictment of governmentpolicy that so many Brits are leaving our shores.

"Combined with the number of EU nationals leaving Britain as free movement ends, this could mean real problems of the UK economy particularly in sectors like catering and hospitality, which are struggling to get back on their feet."

See the article here:

The number of British people emigrating to the EU has risen 30% since the Brexit vote - Business Insider - Business Insider

A five-time world champion and multimillionaire, OSullivan describes himself as semi-retired these days, despite an insatiable appetite from fans for him to continue. Known for his unpredictable temperament and outspoken views, the Rocket has received many warnings and sanctions from snookers governing body for his actions over the years. But he also risked fury from Brexiteers by appearing to plaster outspoken views on the historic decision to leave the EU on social media.

Just one day after the EU referendum, in which Britain voted overwhelmingly to Leave, OSullivan tweeted: Time to leave the UK, I think this place is falling apart at the seams, might move to Germany.

But fans did not appear to be on his side.

One reply read: Ronnie, I love you, but farewell.

Another questioned: Please tell me youre joking, Ron?

And a third poked: Bye-bye, nice to have our country back.

Born in Wordsley in the West Midlands, O'Sullivan grew up in the Manor Road area of Chigwell, Essex where he still lives.

While he might not be moving to Angela Merkel's nation just yet, OSullivan appears to have remained stubborn with his forecast that Britain will be snookered without the EU.

In 2019 he seemed to give a broader explanation.

He wrote on Twitter: I have a feeling Brexit and its chaos is a consequence of years of lies from MPs, and its lack of care for the north of England.

READ MORE:Ronnie OSullivan's plan to lose snooker match and go running instead: 'I don't care'

I imagine the whole world is looking at the UK and thinking, you are bang in trouble now.

While some commentators appeared to agree with his remarks, many quickly shot them down again.

One wrote: Stick to snooker.

Another added: We will be leaving, we can either get on with it or keep moaning about how bad it will be.

A third pointed out: A lot of people down south also voted to leave, its not as simple as north versus south.

A genius with the cue in his hand, OSullivan has also been open in the past about his mental health struggles which threatened to derail his career.

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Snooker was Ronnies life until 14 years ago, when he fought back against his demons, but, despite holding the world number one ranking multiple times, he claims he wishes he never got into the sport.

He said: I never really chose to play snooker, my dad did that for me, and I wish he hadnt.

When I was a kid, I just wanted to have a laugh, potting the odd ball, but Id probably have been happier playing golf or football, or driving cars for a living something outside, with an adrenalin buzz.

Dad was ambitious on my behalf. He sat me down when I was 10 and told me that if I wanted to play the sport I should try to be the best in the world, and if I wanted to do that, I needed to stop mucking around.

He used to compare the snooker hall in Chigwell to a creche it was somewhere he knew Id be safe and stay put, rather than out on the streets causing trouble.

He had spies there, too older members would report back to him if Id got the hump that day and snapped a cue, or wasted my pocket money on the fruit machines.

O'Sullivan's father was jailed in 1992 for murder and the sportsman always been open about how he lost his way during his youth.

He added: By the time I was a teenager I was pretty well drilled, winning tournaments all over the place.

Apart from the past five years, that time between 11 and 15 was probably the best, most consistent snooker Ive played.

Everything went a bit wrong in the following two decades. If that 15 or 16-year-old could see what Im like now, hed probably think Id done OK.

But he also admitted during the 2016 interview with the Telegraph that it was not all about winning trophies for him.

He continued: Throughout my life, Ive never been bothered by the records or titles.

I always want to be the best I can, but I basically play snooker in the same way I did as a kid just trying to pull off good shots.

Its why Ive dropped in and out of the game trophies are fun for about five seconds. I prefer the art of it; some days its good, other days its not.

I think teenage Ronnie would have some grudging respect for some of the breaks on my YouTube highlight reel, though its probably nothing he couldnt have done.

To safeguard a balanced lifestyle, OSullivan has trained his focus on a new hobby running.

He now enjoys jogging in Hainault Forest and by the coast at Leigh on Sea, not feeling shackled to the table any longer, and religiously cooks for one hour a day.

OSullivan does not run competitively any more, putting that distraction from his snooker career behind him as he looks to bag his sixth World Championship title this summer.

OSullivan and Ding Junhui met in the second round last night, and are tied 4-4 as they return to the table later today.

More:

Ronnie O'Sullivans moving to Germany Brexit confession after years of lies from MPs - Express

Boris Johnsons promise of lucrative post-Brexit trade deals as the UK takes back control of its rules is on course to fail, a study warns today.

Three years have been wasted failing to agree what Britain wants from its negotiations, the Institute for Government finds handing the advantage to countries on the other side of table.

It means the controversy over the US demand to sell its chlorinated chicken which has stalled a deal with Washington will be repeated, its report concludes.

Sharing the full story, not just the headlines

The think tank criticises the unforced error of launching into complex trade talks before ministers have decided what they want their post-Brexit regulations to be.

Three years ago, we warned that the government had not set up the necessary structures for effective decision making on key trade policy issues, said Maddy Thimont Jack, a senior researcher.

The government did not heed that warning then, but it now needs to move urgently to put them in place. Otherwise it will find itself losing control of trade and regulatory policy to better-prepared partners.

The criticism comes as trade talks with the EU remain deadlocked because the government cannot agree its future state aid rules and needs to satisfy Brussels fears of undercutting.

Hopes of a deal with the US this year have been abandoned and even a revamped deal with Japan has run into trouble, in a row over access for UK agricultural products.

Notoriously, Brexit-backing Conservatives claimed it would be easy to strike numerous lucrative deals with other countries, once the UK was free to negotiate alone.

A referendum is held on Britain's membership of the European Union. Fifty-two per cent of the country votes in favour of leaving

AFP via Getty

David Cameron resigns on the morning of the result after leading the campaign for Britain to remain in the EU

Getty

Theresa May becomes leader of the Conservative party and prime minister, winning the leadership contest unopposed after Andrea Leadsom drops out

Getty

The High Court rules that parliament must vote on triggering Article 50, which would begin the Brexit process

The prime minister triggers Article 50 after parliament endorses the result of the referendum

Getty

Seeking a mandate for her Brexit plan, May goes to the country

Getty

After a disastrous campaign, Theresa May loses her majority in the commons and turns to the DUP for support. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour party makes gains after being predicted to lose heavily

AFP/Getty

David Davis and Michel Barnier, chief negotiators for the UK and EU respectively, hold a press conference on the first day of Brexit negotiations. Soon after the beginning of negotiations, it becomes clear that the issue of the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic will prove a major sticking point

AFP/Getty

The government suffers a defeat in parliament over the EU withdrawal agreement, guaranteeing that MPs are given a 'meaningful vote' on the deal

Following a summit at Chequers where the prime minister claimed to have gained cabinet support for her deal, Boris Johnson resigns as foreign secretary along with David Davis, the Brexit secretary

Reuters

The draft withdrawal agreement settles Britain's divorce bill, secures the rights of EU citizens living in the UK and vice versa and includes a political declaration commiting both parties to frictionless trade in goods and cooperation on security matters. The deal also includes the backstop, which is anathema to many brexiteers and Dominic Raab and Esther McVey resign from the cabinet in protest

Getty

After several failed attempts to pass her withdrawal agreement through the commons, Theresa May resigns

Reuters

Boris Johnson is elected leader of the Conservative party in a landslide victory. He later heads to Buckingham Palace where the Queen invites him to form a government

Getty

Boris Johnson prorogues parliament for five weeks in the lead up to the UK's agreed departure date of 31 October.

Stephen Morgan MP

The High Court rules that Johnson's prorogation of parliament is 'unlawful' after a legal challenge brought by businesswoman Gina Miller

Getty

Following a summit in Merseyside, Johnson agrees a compromise to the backstop with Irish prime minister Leo Varadkar - making the withdrawal agreement more palatable to Brexiteers

Getty

As parliament passes the Letwin amendment requiring the prime minister to request a further delay to Brexit, protesters take to the streets in the final show of force for a Final Say referendum

Getty

The Conservatives win the December election in a landslide, granting Boris Johnson a large majority to pass through his brexit deal and pursue his domestic agenda

Getty

The withdrawal agreement passes through the commons with a majority of 124

Getty

Members of the European parliament overwhelmingly back the ratification of Britain's departure, clearing the way for Brexit two days later on 31 January. Following the vote, members join hands and sing Auld Lang Syne

AFP/Getty

A referendum is held on Britain's membership of the European Union. Fifty-two per cent of the country votes in favour of leaving

AFP via Getty

David Cameron resigns on the morning of the result after leading the campaign for Britain to remain in the EU

Getty

Theresa May becomes leader of the Conservative party and prime minister, winning the leadership contest unopposed after Andrea Leadsom drops out

Getty

The High Court rules that parliament must vote on triggering Article 50, which would begin the Brexit process

The prime minister triggers Article 50 after parliament endorses the result of the referendum

Getty

Seeking a mandate for her Brexit plan, May goes to the country

Getty

After a disastrous campaign, Theresa May loses her majority in the commons and turns to the DUP for support. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour party makes gains after being predicted to lose heavily

AFP/Getty

David Davis and Michel Barnier, chief negotiators for the UK and EU respectively, hold a press conference on the first day of Brexit negotiations. Soon after the beginning of negotiations, it becomes clear that the issue of the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic will prove a major sticking point

AFP/Getty

The government suffers a defeat in parliament over the EU withdrawal agreement, guaranteeing that MPs are given a 'meaningful vote' on the deal

Following a summit at Chequers where the prime minister claimed to have gained cabinet support for her deal, Boris Johnson resigns as foreign secretary along with David Davis, the Brexit secretary

Reuters

The draft withdrawal agreement settles Britain's divorce bill, secures the rights of EU citizens living in the UK and vice versa and includes a political declaration commiting both parties to frictionless trade in goods and cooperation on security matters. The deal also includes the backstop, which is anathema to many brexiteers and Dominic Raab and Esther McVey resign from the cabinet in protest

Getty

After several failed attempts to pass her withdrawal agreement through the commons, Theresa May resigns

Reuters

Boris Johnson is elected leader of the Conservative party in a landslide victory. He later heads to Buckingham Palace where the Queen invites him to form a government

Getty

Boris Johnson prorogues parliament for five weeks in the lead up to the UK's agreed departure date of 31 October.

Stephen Morgan MP

The High Court rules that Johnson's prorogation of parliament is 'unlawful' after a legal challenge brought by businesswoman Gina Miller

Getty

Following a summit in Merseyside, Johnson agrees a compromise to the backstop with Irish prime minister Leo Varadkar - making the withdrawal agreement more palatable to Brexiteers

Getty

As parliament passes the Letwin amendment requiring the prime minister to request a further delay to Brexit, protesters take to the streets in the final show of force for a Final Say referendum

Getty

The Conservatives win the December election in a landslide, granting Boris Johnson a large majority to pass through his brexit deal and pursue his domestic agenda

Getty

The withdrawal agreement passes through the commons with a majority of 124

Getty

Members of the European parliament overwhelmingly back the ratification of Britain's departure, clearing the way for Brexit two days later on 31 January. Following the vote, members join hands and sing Auld Lang Syne

AFP/Getty

The only thing we have to fear is fear itself, Mr Johnson said before the 2016 referendum. I think there is a huge opportunity. Do free trade deals, believe in ourselves.

The latest news on Brexit, politics and beyond direct to your inbox

In fact, a deal with the US, even if it can be struck, would add only 0.2 per cent to GDP in the long run, the Treasury has estimated and a continued deal with Tokyo only 0.07 per cent.

The IfG study, Trade and Regulation after Brexit, says it will be impossible to marry the desire for a clutch of new agreements and for regulatory autonomy because a weakened UK will be told to change its standards in return.

It warns ministers that the UK:

* Could easily fall victim to other nations threatening to collapse the talks if they do not get what they want.

* Will be vulnerable to challenge at the World Trade Organisation, if its currently dysfunctional dispute system becomes operational again.

* Has failed to agree its stance on key regulatory issues, which risks it being pushed into making concessions it shouldnt.

* Risks damaging the union, unless it can reach agreement with the other UK nations, which are responsible for implementing trade deals and could choose not to

More here:

Brexit: Boris Johnsons promise of lucrative trade deals in trouble, study warns - The Independent

Sir Iain Duncan Smith, the former Tory leader, said it was vital Mr Frost continues to champion UK sovereignty in the talks, as the issue was fundamental to many Brexit voters.

The Brexiteer highlights this in a recent Express.co.uk comment piece, where he points out most people who voted to leave the EU did so to return sovereignty to the UK.

The Tory MP said a poll conducted by Lord Ashcroft on the day of the 2016 EU referendum found nearly half of leave voters said the biggest single reason for wanting to leave the EU was the principle that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK.

The survey found only a third said the main reason was to regain control over immigration and its own borders.

When discussing the current trade talks, Sir Iain wrote: Importantly, David Frost, Boriss chief negotiator made it clear he agreed when he wrote that in the negotiations, the UK places sovereignty above all else.

It is in that context that the issue of how these outstanding payments to the EU impinge on the UKs sovereignty which matter now.

The Brexiteer urges Mr Frost to walk away from the talks if the UKs sovereignty risks being impinged.

He said: The WA was always work in progress as at the end of this year, the UK has a right to a comprehensive agreement, one which treats the UK as a sovereign partner.

A failure to observe this must lead to a rejection of the WA.

FOLLOW EXPRESS.CO.UK FOR LIVE UPDATES:

9.33am update:Brexit Britain could form NEW superpower alliance with Australia, Canada and New Zealand

Brexit Britain could form a federation with Canada, Australia, and New Zealand to create a superpower" after fully cutting ties with the EU, a historian has claimed.

Historian Andrew Roberts described the federation of nations whose majority of people speak English could be a free trade zone with the free movement of people.

The idea is based on the concept of the "CANZUK Union", this being the acronym for Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom.

The union could have a mutual defence organisation and combined military capabilities, the historian claimed.

According to Mr Roberts, the "CANZUK" union would be the fourth-largest economy in the world.

9am update:FTSE-100 shares rose on hopes of Brexit deal

London-listed shares rose on Monday, due in part to renewed hopes of a Brexit trade deal with the EU.

The FTSE-100 was up 0.8 percent, with the mid-cap FTSE-250 also up 0.7 percent - a seven-week high.

Traders are hopeful of a Brexit trade deal after Britain's top minister overseeing negotiations said on Friday he was confident of an agreement with the EU.

Stocks also rose in response to optimism around a post-pandemic economic rebound in China.

8.07am update:Ireland must take a long hard look at Brussels membership

Ireland has been tipped to follow the UK's lead and quit the European Union by a former Irish diplomat who called for "a long hard look" at whether the country's membership of the bloc was worth it.

Ray Bassett pulls no punches in his new book, 'Ireland and the EU Post Brexit', suggesting the benefits bestowed on Dublin by Brussels are drying up, with "difficult choices" on the horizon.

In his book, he writes: "We need a long hard look at our EU membership and pose the question, is it worth the price?"

"The billionaire businessman, George Soros, an ardent europhile, has accepted the inevitable and predicted that unless the EU reforms it will perish.

"The pipe dreams of Emmanuel Macron and his proposals for even a more centralised EU are vanishing against the cold reality of the desire for the citizenry of EU Member States for national sovereignty.

"The disastrous showing of the establishment centre-right and centre-left parties in the 2019 European Parliament elections demonstrated this in a very direct way."

Read the original here:

Brexit LIVE: David Frost urged to WITHHOLD UK repayments 'Sovereignty above all else!' - Daily Express

Mr Barnier indicated this week the EU may drop its demands over state aid which, professor Alex De Ruyter from Birmingham Universitys Centre for Brexit Studies, stated is a major boost for the UK. The EU has called for the UK to agree to a level playing field on state aid but this week Mr Barnier indicated the demand could be dropped for an independent dispute settling mechanism. Speaking toExpress.co.uk, Mr De Ruyter stated an independent dispute settling mechanism would be the obvious way to settle state aid rules.

He said: This is what the UK has been pushing for all along and it would represent a major move.

To be honest, an independent dispute resolution mechanism is the obvious way to resolve disputes relating to any trade agreement.

This is widely done internationally.

The issue of state aid has remained one of the areas of divergence between the two sides during Brexit talks.

State aid determines the level of support from public authorities for organisations.

The EU wants the UK to agree to a certain set of regulations and rules in order stop Britain undercutting Brussels and becoming a more attractive destination for companies.

This week, Mr Barnier told EU diplomats an independent mechanism could be created in order to settle the issue.

Such is the importance of the issue, some diplomats stated if the UK agreed to the proposition, a deal could soon be agreed.

JUST IN:Brexit LIVE: Gove to unveil groundbreaking 355million trade system

The diplomat said: There must be a solid framework with independent oversight.

If they agree to settle on broad rules for granting state aid and to have this independent institution, then we have a deal.

The rules surrounding fisheries and the role of the European Court of Justice in British judicial matters also remain undecided.

Similar to the issue of state aid, UK officials have declared any ECJ role in UK judicial matters would keep Britain tied into regulations and rules set by Brussels post-Brexit.

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In terms of fisheries, the UK is adamant Britain must no longer be under the Common Fisheries Policy.

Under the policy, all coastal areas are placed within the EUs exclusive economic zone.

However, due to the UKs large and rich coastal waters, some have stated the policy allows Europe fishermen to exploit Britains waters.

UK officials want to move away from the policy and set up an agreement similar to Norways fisheries deal with the EU.

Under the agreement, the EU and Norway hold annual negotiations on fishing quotas and access.

Despite the concession from the EU on state aid, Mr Barnier has called for preparations to be made for a no deal Brexit.

Prof De Ruyter concluded: There is scope for both sides to come to a reasonable agreement, but that doesnt mean they will!

At the moment, it is still very unclear what the eventual outcome will be, although I would stress that a no deal scenario would be more costly for the UK than the EU."

Follow this link:

Michel Barnier's 'major' concession on state aid a big win for UK - EU backing down - Daily Express

Nick Von Westenholz of the National Farmers' Union arguedBrexit could be very beneficial for farmers in the UK. While speaking to Stephen Cole on CGTN, Mr Westenholz highlighted the changes Boris Johnson's Government would need to implement to ensure British farmers could thrive. He added the benefits of Brexit for farmers are there but there are important steps the Government needs to take after leaving the European Union.

Mr Cole said: "Farmers are also notorious for being pessimists.

"You are a farm owner, are you looking forward to anything good coming out of Brexit?"

Mr Westernholz detailed what benefits UK farmers could expect if the correct policies are introduced by Boris Johnson's Government.

He said: "I have always said that if this is handled correctly, Brexit can work.

DON'T MISS:Brexit breakthrough: Leaver predicts Macron backdown in trade talks

"It is probably a narrow pathway, however.

"But you need to have a good deal with the EU that maintains tariff-free trade and maintains that hugely important market for UK farmers.

"You need to make sure you have got an immigration system that continues to provide the labour that farmers need.

"Often that has been supplied from overseas rather than the domestic market.

"We need a future agricultural support system that supports farmers and helps them become more productive."

Mr Westenholtz also warned of the potential dangers of not making the correct decisions soon after cutting ties with the European Union.

He said: "We need to be really careful not to be rushing into trade deals with other countries that throw farming under the bus.

READ MORE:

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"Instead, over a period of time, we need to be making deals that begin to open up some of the export markets for us.

"All of that is possible and within the gift of Government policy.

"Whether we get it or not is a different question."

Both the EU and UK have admitted current trade deal talks have been inconclusive but both sides remain determined to agree a trade deal by the end of the year.

Originally posted here:

'Pessimistic' Remainer farmers SILENCED as benefits of Brexit on their industry outlined - Daily Express

Democratic candidate Joe Biden is climbing up the polls to take the lead over the incumbent President, Donald Trump, who is running again this year for the Republican Party. The Government under both Theresa May and Boris Johnson has attempted to strengthen the special relationship between the UK and the US during Mr Trumps time in office. Talks of a trade deal with the US after Brexit have been mentioned regularly, as Britain looks to build up its global commerce.

However, Mr Biden has been vocal in his opposition to Brexit in the past so his potential election is reportedly leaving Westminster unsettled.

London correspondent Mark Landler explained at the end of July that Mr Trumps full-throated endorsement of Brexit has made the US a safe harbour.

He continued: His promise of a lucrative trade deal gave Mr Johnson a selling point with his voters.

However, his rival Mr Biden would look out for the interests of Ireland in a post-Brexit Europe, and would have little motive to prioritise an Anglo-American trade deal, according to the commentator.

The senator is a keen Irish-American and has allies in the Democratic Partys Irish lobby.

While the Democratic candidate does have English heritage too, he is more likely to focus on maintaining the Good Friday Agreement.

Mr Trumps predecessor Barack Obama once said that the UK would be at the back of the queue in any trade talks with the US, if it voted to leave the EU.

As the former vice president to President Barack Obama, Mr Biden is likely to follow a similar line.

A former British ambassador to the US, Peter Westmacott, also told the New York Times: It will not be lost on Biden that the last two British prime ministers [Theresa May and Boris Johnson] went out of their way to be nice to and about Trump.

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He is instinctively comfortable with Brits, but London will have to work on the relationship.

He added: If the UK ends up with a no deal or other Brexit outcome which is bad news for Ireland he will not be impressed.

Ireland has been an area of concern for many during the Brexit negotiations.

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Any hard border between Northern Ireland, which is set to officially leave the EU, and the Republic of Ireland, set to remain in the bloc, caused concern violence could return to the area.

Yet, Mr Johnson addressed the problems head on last year with the then Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, and came up with the Northern Ireland Protocol, where a border would be placed down the Irish Sea instead.

Others suggest that Mr Biden could be a better partner for the UK post-Brexit than Trump, because he is a believer in alliances.

Indeed, according to Tim Shipman in The Sunday Times last month, a Government minister admitted that a Trump defeat would make things much easier for Westminster.

The New York Times also suggested that it is not a sudden rupture but a gradual slide into irrelevance that could pose a problem for the UK if relations with the US deteriorate.

The danger would come if Mr Bidens focus fell on the rest of Europe rather than the special relationship with the UK.

Mr Biden said during a visit to the UK in 2018: Had I been a Member of Parliament, had I been a British citizen, I would have voted against leaving.

US interests are diminished with Great Britain not an integral part of Europe.

Mr Johnson has not commented on the US presidential race so far even though Mr Trump gave his vocal support to the Conservatives when he called into a radio show during the general election in December.

Read the original here:

Brexit row: Joe Biden poised to favour Ireland over UK after election - Express

Theres been a surge in young professionals looking to work remotely for UK companies from abroad before Brexit is completed.

Some young professionals are looking to move before the transition period of Brexit potentially makes it harder to sort out things like healthcare and visas.

Many have enjoyed the freedom of working from home, and have demonstrated to their bosses that their location is irrelevant to the continuing success of the business.

Simon Conn, an expert in overseas property, said: I have been getting enquiries each day from people looking for a mortgage to buy their dream home in sunnier climes.

There is an increasing number of people planning to continue working for their existing UK employer, but basing themselves in their dream destination.

Some 66% of Brits living abroad in the EU are of working age (16-64 years old) and there are currently over five million Britons living overseas.

Conn added: Property costs are often much lower, the standard of living is good, and the stress levels of the daily commute are banished forever.

Meyrick Green, account manager for strategic partnerships for Moneycorp, a foreign exchange company, said: One thing that does need to be considered is the question of healthcare, visas (if needed), right to work and so on.

For Europe this was always relatively easy, but with the transition period of Brexit looming, this might change hence why we are seeing a surge in people wanting to do things now.

Alistair Lockhart, director at French Entre Property, said: We dont ask the age of our prospective buyers as unless they are applying for a mortgage it isnt relevant.

However, it certainly feels like a lot of the enquiries are coming from a slightly younger demographic than the usual band of 30-40-year-old buyers with families.

The appeal of being able to potentially work remotely from a country they have been dreaming about, whilst maintaining their UK salaries, must be hugely appealing.

Read more from the original source:

Young professionals looking to exit before Brexit - Property Wire

The huge divorce bill has been accepted by the UK despite Prime Minister Boris Johnson's resistance and Brexiteer fury. Mr Johnson warned last August that in the event of a no deal, the hefty fee would "not strictly" be owed to Brussels. He said: If we come out without an agreement it is certainly true that the 39billion is no longer, strictly speaking, owed. However, given the UK has now accepted that it will pay per the financial settlement refusal to now could provoke the EU to take the case to the International Court of Justice. Much to the dismay of leavers in the UK, the divorce bill could still be being paid off by 2060, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility. The OBR estimated in January that the bill stood at just under 30billion most of this to be paid by 2022, with some relatively small payments still being made until the 2060s. However, clauses in the UK's withdrawal agreement with the EU threatens to pile on further costs.

The OBR figure of 33billion for the divorce bill is not an absolute number more of an estimate.

But on top of this, there are future liabilities in the small print of the withdrawal agreement which could lead to yet more disputes between Brussels and London.

The UK's future liabilities covers 50 pages of the agreement, and outlines that different parts of the EU have made long-dated loans or financial commitments during the UK's time in the bloc.

The agreement, which was passed by Parliament and settled on by both the UK and the EU, saddles Britain with a responsibility to pay for a portion of any future losses on those loans and financial commitments, regardless of whether any benefit was reaped from them.

One caveat is that this only applies to loans and commitments made when the UK was still a member state.

The withdrawal agreement states that the UK will pay a portion through the EU budget around 12 percent because that is the average contribution the UK made between 2014-2018.

The document states that including 2019 and 2020 in the calculation would make this figure smaller because the pound weakened against the euro following the EU referendum result and has remained at a lower level since".

It adds: This makes the UK economy appear relatively smaller and means the UK will make relatively smaller contributions to the EU budget.

However, this figure is changeable. For example, if a country in southern Europe finds itself in economic turmoil, the UK may have to up its contribution to compensate.

This total liability now amounts to 166billion through the EU Budget and 33billion in subscribed-but-not-called capital in the European Investment Bank (EIB) and the European Central Bank (ECB).

Additionally, in a crisis, the UK would hope to see its paid-in capital of 3.25billion in the EIB and ECB written off.

The amount at risk of 166billion through the EU Budget could rise by to 344billion during 2021 thanks to the headroom in and carry-over provision for the 2014-2020 EU budget period.

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Should losses materialise, the UK's payments would be debited to the UK's budget, the Telegraph reported in July.

Whether the labyrinth of financial obligations would still be owed to the EU in the event on no deal is still debated amongst legal experts.

A House of Lords European Union Committee report published last October highlighted this.

It said: "Legal experts continue to disagree over the extent to which the UK would have outstanding financial obligations to the EU, or vice versa, in the event of a no deal Brexit.

"The difficulties in enforcing any possible financial obligations do not mean that there might not be a breach of international law if the UK were to withhold payments."

Brexit trade talks have seen the risk of no deal become ever more apparent as government sources said last month that the EU's approach has resulted in "paralysis".

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Brexit negotiations have stalled in recent months over two key issues fisheries and regulatory alignment.

Mr Johnson wants to fulfil a Leave campaign promise that the UK will take back control of its waters post-Brexit.

Previously, EU vessels had free access to British fishing grounds, leaving many fishermen in the UK aggrieved.

However, the EU's chief negotiator Michel Barnier has warned Mr Johnson he cannot secure access to European markets without allowing EU vessels into UK waters.

The UK is also looking to avoid EU regulations giving the country more freedom to set its own laws on trading standards.

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Brexit outrage: UK could have to pay BILLIONS more to EU after withdrawal - Express