Bitcoin, after suddenly soaring early last week, had a difficult day last weekend.

The bitcoin price briefly topped $12,000 only to flash-crash early on Sunday morning, pushing bitcoin back to just over $10,000.

Meanwhile, bitcoin and cryptocurrency exchange Binance, the world's largest by volume, was having problems of its ownwith one trader briefly sending the price of some bitcoin futures to $100,000.

Bitcoin futures, allowing investors to speculate on the future price of bitcoin, have become ... [+] increasingly popular in recent years.

"Another day in crypto," Binance chief executive Changpeng Zhao, often known as CZ, warned via Twitter, revealing the bitcoin futures price spike and explaining, "a users [algorithm] went ballistic and sent multiple orders to achieve this."

Bitcoin futures trading, allowing investors to speculate on the future price of bitcoin, has surged in popularity over the last year or so, boosted by exchanges such as Binance, and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) offering long-awaited cash-settled bitcoin futures. CBOE, after rolling out the first bitcoin futures contracts in December 2017, decided to stop adding new ones in March this year.

According to a statement released by Binance after the "large price fluctuation," the "extreme" price movement in the bitcoin quarterly futures contract "did not cause any liquidations in user positions."

"We do have price band protection," CZ added, meaning the rogue trade did not cause other traders to lose the capital they'd used to speculate on the future bitcoin price.

The bitcoin futures spike to around $100,000 was explained by one user's algorithm going ... [+] "ballistic."

Despite assurances, the bitcoin futures price spike caused consternation among crypto traders.

"Crazy price spikes like this are a trader's worst nightmare," professional bitcoin and crypto trader and author of The Crypto Trader, Glen Goodman, said via email.

"Thankfully, Binance's systems ensured nobody's account was liquidated, but not all exchanges would be so responsible in a similar situation."

Bitcoin and crypto exchanges including Malta-based OKEx, Singapore-based Huobi and Saychelles-based BitMex, along with Binance, currently of no fixed address, dominate bitcoin futures trading, with billions of dollars' worth of contracts traded across the platforms every day.

"It's a wake-up call to all traders that you need to make sure you use a respected exchange for your trading," Goodman said, adding: "It's also a timely reminder that when you trade obscure derivatives like quarterly bitcoin futures, all it takes is one giant whale to corner all the little fish and liquidate their accounts."

Others, however, saw the bitcoin futures price spike as nothing more than an unfortunate blip for the burgeoning market.

"Bitcoin has come a long way in the past 11 years," Cory Klippsten, tech investor and founder of bitcoin buying app Swan Bitcoin, said via Telegram. "An event like this on a single exchange is no longer a cause for concern."

The bitcoin price has soared over the last month, adding a staggering 25% and pushing it above the ... [+] psychological $10,000 per bitcoin level.

Klippsten pointed to bitcoin's tumultuous history of spikes and crashes as evidence this latest roller coaster won't negatively impact bitcoin or cryptocurrency in the long term.

"Anomalies on individual exchanges don't seem to matter much for adoption," Klippsten said.

"The history of the space has been filled with flash crashes or spikes and exchange hacks, but observant people understand that it's a matter of improving on immature infrastructure, not a problem with cryptocurrency itself."

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Another Day In Crypto, Warns Binance CEO After Nightmare Bitcoin Futures Spike To $100,000 - Forbes

Burning one hundred dollar

Last week, bitcoin was seemingly driven by one factor, the US dollar. This dynamic is easily seen when blotting the USD index (DXY) against bitcoin.

Tradingview.com

Furthermore, Digital Assets research firm, Delphi Digital notes Gold bugs have been rejoicing in recent weeks...dollar weaknesscoupled withdeeply negative real yieldshas created a perfect storm for gold and precious metals. Additionally, Delphi Digital states Golds latest surge puts it among this years best performing assets,outpacing global equities by 34 percentage points. Its 35% gain year-to-date through August 6th is also its best since the early 1970s.

https://www.delphidigital.io/

Golds impressive returns are only outmatched by bitcoin in 2020, i.e. 34% and 72%, respectively. Bitcoins superior performance suggests investors are beginning to truly see it as a store of value asset, and that it might be a 2:1 leveraged beta play on Gold given the current weak dollar environment.

Tradingview.com

The Delphi Digital team is not the only high profile analysts that share this weak dollar view. Recently, Qiao Wang, made a strong declaration on Twitter, telling traders to differentiate between normal and non-normal environments.

If you are short BTC, you need to get TA out of your head. It's all macro now. And we are in the single most incredible macro environment of the decade. The entire world is one trade: the USD. If you short crypto you are long the USD. And you absolutely don't want to do that.

— Qiao Wang (@QWQiao) August 2, 2020

This notion flies in the face of previous statements made by the famous Macro Investor Raoul Pal, who has been vocally long USD since early 2020 believing a global shortage will lead to a dollar squeeze, thus price appreciation.

Qiao Wang says Raoul has been wrong on the USD thus far. Noting, time frame matters, e.g. the dollar can get stronger next week or handful of months, but over the next 2-5 years, the probability of it decreasing in value is quite high.

If the inverse correlation between bitcoin and the dollar is as pervasive as analysts suggest, then the technical analysis charts should corroborate as well.

Charts produced by the anonymous trader on Twitter, Rekt Capital, seemingly validate the aforementioned analysts. Rekt Capital notes Bitcoin has breached a multi-year resistance level. Any retraces are unlikely to dip below the multi-year trend line, i.e. the low to mid-$8000s...That being said, I'm looking for targets rather than retrace opportunities as this rally hasn't yet fully overextended.

twitter.com/rektcapital, tradingview.com

Additionally, Rekt Capital says Bitcoin has also managed to Weekly Close above a key historical area of supply ($11,400-$11,600) after consolidating within a classic continuation structure. The last time bitcoin managed a Weekly Close above this level was back in early December 2017, which could lead to a breach of $12,000 and an attempt towards $13,000.

twitter.com/rektcapital, tradingview.com

The future is unknowable, but massive global indebtedness, anemic economic growth, and exploding Central Bank balance sheets, seem likely to lead to a sustained period of dollar weakness, which has been reflected in store of value asset prices like bitcoin and Gold.

This dollar weakness coupled with a growing number of Millennials and Gen Z retail investors seriously allocating to digital assets like bitcoin, could be the perfect concoction for a multi-year bull market, which the technical analysis charts appear to suggest at the moment.

I know so many people who have just in the last week expressed interest in #Bitcoin, from the standpoint that it is a serious investment.

All of them have formulated a plan to allocate consistently.

They are not priced in yet.

We are on our way to 14k.

— Cantering Clark (@CanteringClark) August 9, 2020

Disclosure: The author owns bitcoin and ethereum.

For educational purposes only, not investment advice.

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Weaker Dollar Will Drive Bitcoin To New Highs - Forbes

Its crypto. Its physical gold. And recently, it was approved by the New York State Department of Financial Services for custody and listing. Its a product from the crypto-verse that combines gold and crypto into a single unit.

Data from Coinmarketcap showed PAX Gold traded at about $1,521 as of March 21, 2020. As of the time of writing this report, the crypto asset was trading at about $2,039.40, showing gains in percentage terms of about 134%. Meanwhile, Gold price so far has gained just 35% in 2020.

READ MORE: ChainLinks digital coin skyrockets 388% in 130 days, still soaring

Why PAX Gold: The sudden surge in this gold-backed stablecoin, since the era of the COVID-19 pandemic, appears to be driven by increased awareness of its unique features, which include access to gold without bullion fees or other storage costs.

Quick fact: PAX Gold (PAXG) is a crypto asset backed by Gold. A PaxoGold digital coin is backed by one fine troy ounce (t oz) of a 400 oz London Good Delivery gold bar, stored in Brinks gold vaults. Any entity or individual who owns PAX Gold owns the underlying physical gold held in custody by Paxos Trust Company.

READ MORE: QKC: fastest rising crypto asset in 30 days, gains 100%

Paxos has recently responded to all its digital coins being listed on the New York State Department of Financial Services (NYDFS), stating that it validated the companys time, energy, and expense which it put into compliance.

Commenting on the green list, Dan Burstein, Chief Compliance Officer at Paxos said: As the Chief Compliance Officer at Paxos, Im proud that the culture of Paxos is truly centered around compliance. We build products that the world has never seen before, and we build them for the innovators in the space, not the bad actors.

Our engineers and product managers prioritize compliance as we create new products, our business development team considers compliance as we structure new partnerships, our operations team helps onboard and service customers according to our high compliance standards, our information security team ensures we hold our customers digital assets and personal information in the most secure way possible the list goes on.

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Bitcoin is on rampage as it breaks through $12000 price level - Nairametrics

Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies have attracted the attention of Wall Street in recent years, with some of the biggest bitcoin and crypto asset managers reporting massive inflows.

The bitcoin price, after struggling through a prolonged so-called "crypto winter" in 2018, has found relative stability around the $10,000 level over the last 12 months.

Now, research from bitcoin, cryptocurrency and blockchain data company Chainalysis has revealed institutional investors on Wall Street are increasingly moving even larger transfers of bitcoin and cryptocurrencywith the trend "only just beginning."

Institutional investors in the U.S. are moving even larger transfers of cryptocurrency than ... [+] professional traders, bitcoin and blockchain data company Chainalysis has revealed.

"As of June, approximately 90% of North America's cryptocurrency transfer volume came from professional-sized transfers, which we categorize as those above $10,000 worth of cryptocurrency," the Chainalysis team wrote in a blog post detailing the findings of its 2020 geography of cryptocurrency report.

"However, over the last two years in North America, were seeing the impact of a growing class of institutional investors whose transfers account for the growing dominance of professionals in the North American market since December 2019."

Bitcoin and cryptocurrency transfers in North America above $1 million rose from 46% of the total value transferred in late 2019 to a high of 57% in May 2020, Chainalysis found.

The overall market share of professional-sized bitcoin and crypto transfers in North America rose from 87% to 92% over the same period.

"In other words, the increasing dominance of North Americas professional market since December 2019 appears to be almost entirely driven by transfers of $1 million or more worth of cryptocurrency, many of which we believe are coming from institutional investors," the researchers wrote.

Bitcoin and cryptocurrency transactions worth over $1 million have soared over the last year, ... [+] climbing as bitcoin and crypto transactions worth between $100,000 and $1 million have fallen.

Meanwhile, despite the likes of multi-billion dollar bitcoin and crypto-asset manager Grayscale declaring institutional investors "have now arrived" in the crypto market, the trend could be just getting started.

"Institutional money is only just beginning to enter the cryptocurrency ecosystem, and so the market is still relatively immature and fragmented," Kim Grauer, Chainalysis' Senior Economist, said via email, pointing to exchanges listing different prices and exchanges being able to handle different amounts of liquidity for big buyers resulting in "liquidity constraints contributing to a higher potential for price volatility and market manipulation."

However, Wall Street's increasing involvement in the bitcoin and cryptocurrency market "will help cryptocurrency mature in terms of greater transparency and price stability," according to Grauer.

"We anticipate arbitrage opportunities closing up, better solutions for combining liquidity across exchanges, and greater price stability and price discovery," Grauer said, adding: "We expect that as regulators and financial institutions better understand the benefits of cryptocurrencys transparency, they will start to trust the space more."

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Wall Street Revealed To Be Edging Out Bitcoin Traders With $1 Million+ Transactions - Forbes

Barry Silbert, founder and chief executive officer of Digital Currency Group Inc. (DCG), speaks ... [+] during the Skybridge Alternatives (SALT) conference in Las Vegas, Nevada, in May 2019. DCG subsidiary Grayscale is working to convert all ten of its crypto products to SEC reporting companies.

Institutional adoption of bitcoin is here, you just have to know where to look. While cryptocurrency advocates have long worked to build an ecosystem deemed credible enough for more than just mom and pop investors, nearly 20 institutions already filed paperwork with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission last quarter, showing they invested in the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), a product of Barry Silberts New York-based Grayscale Investments, LLC.

While many of the names are well-known mutual funds like Ark Invest with $4.5 billion in assets under management and Horizon Kinetic, managing $5.3 billion, according to their investor disclosure forms, the latest filings are also rife with relative newbies to the space including Rothschild Investment Corporation, Addison Capital and Corriente Advisor. It's very difficult to have a clean one-to-one signal on who's entering and exiting the space, says Ark Invest crypto analyst Yassine Elmandjra. But there are some very interesting proxies that can gauge institutional interest.

The problem is, the vast majority of the institutional investors who filed the paperwork, called a 13F filing, will no longer need to do so if the SEC gets its way and raises the threshold to report from $100 million to $3.5 billion. Though bitcoin represents only a tiny fraction of the total assets that will no longer have to be disclosed if the change is implemented, the nascent industry stands to be disproportionately impacted.

Of the 27 GBTC disclosures Forbes found only nine were more than the new $3.5 billion projection. Only three companies managed those nine funds, meaning much of the diversity of the space, the smaller institutional investors who are just starting to experiment with the new asset, would disappear. The changes are bad timing for the nascent bitcoin industry, which is just now starting to see broad institutional interest in the asset that many see as a hedge against more traditional investments, and a possible safe haven for investors as central banks around the world seem to be printing endless amounts of money.

But as often happens in crypto, every one step back the industry takes, theres two steps forward. In January, the same Grayscale Bitcoin Trust whose clients had already been filing 13Fs became an SEC reporting company, making it the first bitcoin firm to file quarterly 10-Qs and annual 10-Ks with the regulator, shedding new light on the internal structure of institutional bitcoin adoption.

Today, Grayscale took it up a notch, starting the same process with the SEC for its second crypto fund, the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE), and revealing exclusively to Forbes its plans to turn each of its 10 productsalso including XRP, stellar lumens, ethereum classic, litecoin, zcash, bitcoin cash, zen, and a fund for large cap cryptocurrenciesinto SEC reporting companies.

The model we have is working, says Grayscale managing director Michael Sonnenshein, 34. It also continues to hold our team to an even higher standard in how we operate our business and how we diligence our partners and can really serve as a model for other asset managers. Therell be a 60-day comment period starting today, before, the trust could also start filing its 10-Ks. If all goes as planned, Grayscale will next work to convert all ten of its cryptocurrency investment vehicles into publicly traded assets, then turn each of those into SEC reporting companies.

The price of bitcoin has increased by 56% since January, according to cryptocurrency data site Messari, reaching its high for the year, $11,809, earlier this month before dropping slightly to $11,657 at the time of publication. The most recent Grayscale quarterly report saw the trust growing at a rate of $57.8 million a week, reaching a record $751.1 million in the quarter. As of yesterday, assets in GBTC totaled $4.5 billion and Grayscales total assets under management have increased 37.5% since the June report to $5.5 billion today.

Due to the dearth of publicly traded investment opportunities for bitcoin, investments in GBTC can serve as a useful proxy for institutional interest in crypto-assets. But it is far from a perfect metric. The highly private New York private equity giant Fortress Investment Group has $41 billion in assets under management for 1,700 institutional investors, and earlier this year offered to buy out the creditor claims in the now defunct MtGox bitcoin exchange. $30 billion pension and endowment advisor Cambridge Associates, has been advocating for its clients to invest in bitcoin since at least 2019.

Famed Hedge Funders Mark Yusko and Mike Novogratz serve institutional bitcoin investors at their firms, Morgan Creek and Galaxy Digital, respectively, and Forbes 30 Under 30 member Hunter Horsley founded Bitwise Asset Management to serve institutional investors. In May Canadian firm 3iQ started trading a bitcoin fund on the Toronto Stock Exchange, joining London-based Coinshares and Switzerland-based Amun, which offer exchange-traded notes similar to Grayscales products in other jurisdictions.

The massive inflow of funds to Grayscale sister company Genesis Capital, which added over $2.2B in new loan originations in Q2, is also evidence of institutional interest. But for the most part, the clients of these firms remain incredibly private, making the soon-to-be changed 13F reports on GBTC investment activity a crucial source of investor data.

Earlier this year U.S. attorney general William Barr announced that President Trump intended to nominate SEC Chairman Jay Clayton as the next U.S. attorney for the influential southern district of New York. One of the last things Clayton did as he prepared to step down as the nations top regulator was publish a plan that would raise the minimum assets. You lose a lot of transparency in the market, says Daniel Collins, founder of WhaleWisdom, a data provider that specializes in analyzing 13F forms. That's why people look to the U.S. market, to establish confidence in the market for potential investors, foreign investors. And all of a sudden you're hiding all these assets every quarter that used to be disclosed.

The SEC adopted the 13F form in 1978 as a way to track the investment behaviors of Americas largest investors. At the time, the value of U.S. public corporate equities was $1.1 trillion, according to an SEC statement, and the minimum size of a company deemed influential enough to track was $100 million. Between then and the announcement of the proposed changes earlier this year, the total number of those equities grew to about $35 trillion. The proposed $3.5 billion minimum is designed to be proportionately the same to the total public corporate equities as when the form was first adopted.

Clayton was nominated by Trump to be chairman of the SEC in January 2017 and is known in the cryptocurrency community for cracking down on several initial coin offerings (ICOs) where tokens issued on a blockchain were sold in a manner similar to traditional securities. Given Trumps cozy relationships with private companies, its perhaps no surprise that the presumptive nominee to be U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York would seek to make such a business-friendly change to regulation on his way out. However, retail investors stand to lose a lot of valuable data as 5,200 13F filers last quarter are reduced to an estimated 500 if the regulatory change goes into effect, according to Collins. You're looking at $2.3 trillion in assets, no longer being disclosed, he says.

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20 Institutional Bitcoin Investors Revealed, But Soon The List May Vanish - Forbes

Bitcoin prices surged 5% on Wednesday, outpacing stocks and gold amid calls for more government stimulus, as the economic toll of the coronavirus mounts.

The oldest and largest cryptocurrency rose to $11,755. The price is now approaching $12,000 for the second time in a week, a level that bitcoin hasnt sustainably traded above for more than a year.

Youre readingFirst Mover, CoinDesks daily markets newsletter. Assembled by the CoinDesk Markets Team, First Mover starts your day with the most up-to-date sentiment around crypto markets, which of course never close, putting in context every wild swing in bitcoin and more. We follow the money so you dont have to. You cansubscribe here.

Bloomberg News went so far as to declare in an article Wednesday that bitcoin mania appears to be almost back in full bloom.

Bitcoin is seen by many digital-asset investors as a hedge against inflation, and the bets are growing that governments and central banks will have to pump trillions of dollars more into the financial system to stimulate the economy out of the worst recession since the 1930s.

Gold, historically seen as a reliable inflation hedge, surged this week to a new record above $2,000.

Yet, even golds 35% gain this year is no match for bitcoins 63% price increase. The Standard & Poors 500 Index is now up 3% on the year, with some traditional investors arguing that stocks have become detached from reality, merely propped up by the roughly $3 trillion of freshly created money that the Federal Reserve has pumped into the global financial system this year.

Bitcoin and the crypto markets are once again able to claim independence from the traditional markets, Mati Greenspan, co-founder of the foreign-exchange and cryptocurrency analysis firm Quantum Economics, wrote Wednesday in a newsletter.

The U.S. governments budget deficit this fiscal year is projected to soar to $3.7 trillion, far surpassing the previous record of $1.4 trillion in 2009, according to the Associated Press.

An extra $600-per-week federal benefit for laid-off workers lapsed last week, threatening the economic recovery, and U.S. lawmakers arewrangling over the details of a newspending measure that could range from $1 trillion to more than $3 trillion.

Bitcoins long-term value proposition as a hedge against fiat currency debasement only grows stronger,Anil Lulla, of cryptocurrency research firm Delphi Digital, noted Wednesday in an op-ed for CoinDesk.

The International Monetary Fund warned this week in a blog post that another bout of global financial stress could trigger more capital flow reversals, currency pressures and further raise the risk of an external crisis for economies with preexisting vulnerabilities, such as large current account deficits.

All that just plays to bitcoins strengths, as more investors start to extrapolate the likely stimulus needed to recover from a protracted economic downturn. According Bloomberg News, analysts for the U.S. bank JPMorgan wrote Tuesday that while older investors are buying gold, younger investors are buying bitcoin.

The analysis firm Coin Metrics noted thatover the past week bitcoin had averaged over 1 million daily active addresses for the first time since January 2018. That was in the wake of the cryptocurrencyhitting an all-time high around $20,000 in 2017.

And Norwegian cryptocurrency-analysis firm Arcane Research noted in a report this week that bitcoin daily trading volumes have been growing strongly, with several days topping $2 billion. The number of openbitcoin futures contracts on the CME exchange has jumped to a new record around $850 million.

The strong momentum in the market continues, Arcane wrote. The sharp rise in open interest at CME is a clear indication of increased institutional demand for bitcoin.

Chris Thomas, head of digital assets for broker Swissquote, told CoinDesks Daniel Cawreyon Wednesdaythat bitcoin could break past $12,000 by Friday.

The signs certainly appear to be pointing in that direction.

Tweet of the day

Bitcoin watch

BTC: Price: $11,700 (BPI) | 24-Hr High: $11,807 | 24-Hr Low: $11,380

Trend:Bitcoin is looking north after twin bullish cues were activated by a 5% rally Wednesday.

Firstly, with the UTC close at $11,755, bitcoin marked an upside break of a narrowing price range witnessed Monday and Tuesday.

In addition, Wednesdays UTC close established a strong foothold above $11,400. The bulls had repeatedly failed to keep gains above that level on Monday and Tuesday.

The combination of range breakout and convincing move above a key hurdle has opened the doors for a re-test of recent highs above $12,100.

Still, the case for a rally to recent highs would only weaken if prices fall back below the former hurdle-turned-support of $11,400. At press time, bitcoin is changing hands near $11,700.

The leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups.

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First Mover: Bitcoin Rises More in One Day Than Stocks Have Gained All Year - CoinDesk - CoinDesk

Bitcoin volatility is back. After months of relative stability the bitcoin price ricocheted this weekend, rapidly losing and gaining over $1,000 in mere minutes.

Bitcoin's Sunday morning flash crash was initially attributed by some to so-called "whales" who control large amounts of bitcoin moving the market, however others have now suggested it could be due to "algo misbehavior."

Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets have come alive again after months of stability, with the bitcoin ... [+] price climbing and crashing over the weekend.

The bitcoin price broke $12,000 per bitcoin early Sunday morning only to plummet 12% to $10,500 within the hour before bouncing back to over $11,300 almost immediately.

"Such spikes are still inherent to the crypto market structure, with prolific unregulated leveraged trading going on," Anatoliy Knyazev, the chief executive of brokerage Exante, said via email, adding the flash crash "could be a case of an algo misbehavior."

Algorithmic trading is used to automate trades based on time, price, and volume with traders programming buy or sell orders to happen when certain market conditions are met, such as an asset price reaching a particular level or if it sharply falls.

The effects of algorithmic trading can be exacerbated by leveraged trading, allowing traders to take larger positions with smaller amounts of capitalsomething that is now being offered by many of the biggest bitcoin and cryptocurrency exchanges.

"There's a lot more leverage now than ever before, especially in crypto," Mati Greenspan, the founder of Quantum Economics told subscribers of his markets newsletter.

"This could lead to some extreme volatility," Greenspan wrote, but added he thinks "bitcoin, along with the rest of the digital asset market, is in a bull market right now."

The bitcoin price has shot up by more than 20% over the last month, climbing to levels not seen since August last year.

The bitcoin price has soared by over 20% through July with the weekend's flash crash barely denting ... [+] its upward trajectory.

Meanwhile, it's also been suggested the sharp Sunday morning downturn was due to market participants "profit-taking."

"Bitcoin has been increasing, and on Sunday morning the first digital currency touched $12,000," Alex Kuptsikevich, senior financial analyst at FxPro, said via email.

"However, due to the wave of profit-taking, it quickly corrected to $11,000. Taking into account the relatively low liquidity of the crypto market, a small number of large orders is capable of launching waves in both directions."

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Is This The Real Reason Behind Bitcoins Huge Weekend Flash Crash? - Forbes

Steering clear of the first major support level at $9,967, Bitcoin rallied to a Friday intraweek high $11,900.

Falling short of the weeks first major resistance level at $12,119, Bitcoin fell back to $11,500 levels before finding support.

5 days in the green that included a 4.93% rally on Wednesday delivered the upside for the week.

Bitcoin would need to avoid a fall through $11,506 pivot to support another run the first major resistance level at $12,069 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break out from the current week high $12,060.

Barring another extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of a breakout, Bitcoin could break out from the second major resistance level at $12,463 to target $13,000 levels.

A fall through the $11,506 pivot would bring the first major support level at $11,112 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, Bitcoin should avoid sub-$11,000 levels and the second major support level at $10,549.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up by 2.80% to $12,002.0. A bullish start to the week saw Bitcoin rise from an early morning low $11,675.3 to a high $12,060 on Monday.

Bitcoin tested the first major resistance level at $12,069 at the start of the week.

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Bitcoin and Ripple's XRP Weekly Technical Analysis August 10th, 2020 - FX Empire

Weekly peer-to-peer bitcoin trading volumes topped $95 million globally with several countries recording new all-time highs for the year.

The record trading volumes coincided with the most bullish week for cryptocurrencies with bitcoin (BTC) briefly trading above $12,000.

As data from Usefultulips shows, peer to peer bitcoin trading volumes for the week topped an equivalent of $95 million. The figure surpasses $92.4 million, the highest weekly volume value in 2019.

The data combines trading volumes at two peer-to-peer trading platforms, Localbitcoins and Paxful. According to the same data, the month of December 2017 had the highest ever recorded weekly traded volume. Trades totaling $131 million were recorded.

Meanwhile, a break down of the $95 million by region shows that North America is leading with $28.7 million. The United States takes the lions share of that figure.

The Sub-Saharan Africa region comes second with $18.3 million worth of bitcoin have being traded between peers in the period under review.

A further breakdown of the $18.3 million reveals that Nigeria leads the Sub-Saharan Africa region. According to the data, Nigerian peer to peer bitcoin trading volumes topped an equivalent of $9.8 million. The figure is slightly below the $10.3 million recorded in the week earlier.

Kenya is a distant second with $3.2 million worth of trades while South African peer-to-peer trading volumes topped $2.8 million.

The Sub-Saharan Africa data also shows that the regions $18.3 million is the highest ever recorded. A noticeable spike in trading volumes which began in April suggests that Covid-19 and lockdown measures might have made peer to peer bitcoin trading more appealing.

Meanwhile, Latin America and the Asia Pacific are two regions with the next highest volumes. Both regions had about $13 million worth of bitcoins being traded.

As expected, Venezuela, which is grappling with record inflation levels, leads in Latin America with nearly $5 million worth of bitcoin traded.

Colombia is second with $3.4 million while crisis-hit Argentina is a distant third with just under $1 million worth of trades.

In the Asia Pacific, China and India are neck and neck with $4.5 million and $4.4 million respectively. For India, the figure represents a new all-time high.

What do you think about the growing peer-to-peer trading volumes? Tell us your thoughts in the comments section below.

Image Credits: Shutterstock, Pixabay, Wiki Commons

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Peer-to-Peer Bitcoin Trading Tops $95 Million as Sub-Saharan Africa Records All Time High | Markets and Prices - Bitcoin News

In the past couple of weeks, the Bitcoin (BTC) price has resurged after months of apparent monetary stagnation. Since July 23, the value of a single Bitcoin has risen by around 20%. Not only that, after trading sideways since its supply squeeze in early May, the premier currency broke through its all-important $10,000 psychological threshold, thus leading many casual investors to once again jump back on the crypto hype train.

Bitcoins recent price hike has also resulted in a retail boom, with a whole host of trading platforms across the world reporting sky-high Bitcoin trading volumes. As a result of this bullish market activity, Joe DiPasquale, prominent crypto pundit and CEO of BitBull Capital, recently stated that this latest surge is once again building up an element of FOMO, or fear of missing out, among casual investors who believe they might be late to the crypto party.

Echoing a somewhat similar sentiment, Joshua Frank, co-founder and CEO of The Tie a provider of data aggregation tools commented to Cointelegraph that historically speaking, volatility has driven significant new waves of interest and investors into Bitcoin, particularly with the most recent run from $9,000 to $12,000. Frank outlined that the 30-day average number of Twitter users discussing Bitcoin has spiked from 24,000 to 30,000 over the last two weeks, adding:

Bitcoin hit its highest daily tweet volume level since June 26th 2019 in the wake of the Twitter scam on July 16th. While it isnt clear that the run-up had any correlation to the scam, we have seen in the past that, all else equal, the more users talking about Bitcoin the better the asset performs.

Denis Vinokourov, head of research at BeQuant, a crypto exchange and institutional brokerage service, told Cointelegraph that since volatility picked up, his firm has observed trade volumes jumping by about 40% from where daily summer averages were prior to this recent rally.

Cointelegraph also discussed the recent market action with Adam Vettese, market analyst at cryptocurrency trading and investment platform eToro. He pointed out that since crypto prices began rallying at the end of July, the number of crypto positions being opened increased by 115% versus the previous fortnight. Over the same time period, trading volume in crypto instruments also increased by 162%. The number of Bitcoin positions opened increased by 222% with a 421% rise for Ether (ETH) and 170% for XRP.

Christophe Michot, sales director at digital asset trading platform CrossTower also claimed that over the course of the past couple of weeks, his firm has observed a 219% increase in daily trading volume as well as a 66% rise in the number of daily average signups over the same time period.

Michot also highlighted that since the pullback in mid-March, the market as a whole has experienced a strong bullish reversal. For example, Bitcoin has regained over 210% and Ethereum bounced by 364% since the Black Thursday crash of March 11, 2020.

The crypto market rally has come on the heels of positive news such as the U.S. OCCs recent clarification permitting the custody of Bitcoin by banks as well as the announcement of another stimulus package to be issued by the Fed in the near future, which some experts believe will continue to devalue the U.S. dollar.

On July 12, Bitcoins long-term sentiment score a comparison of investor sentiment over the last 50 days vs. the prior 200 hit a new all-time high leading up to Bitcoins run at the end of the month. Similarly, the daily sentiment score represents a measure of how positive or negative conversations on Twitter have been about a particular coin over the last 24 hours vs. the previous 20 days.

The daily sentiment score of investors has remained positive (above 50) every day from July 20 to Aug. 1. Even after Bitcoin failed to surpass the $12,000 mark and retraced by $1,400, investor sentiment fell below 50 for only about 28 hours, alluding to the fact that investors have remained extremely positive on Bitcoin.

Frank told Cointelegraph that approximately 68% of all tweets discussing the long-term financial future of Bitcoin over the past month have been positive. Similarly, Michot added that according to CrossTowers media data, the market is in the early stages of a new bull run, adding: Another positive sentiment is coming from family offices and other traditional advisory firms. These firms are seeing increased demands by clients seeking exposure to the cryptocurrency markets.

Since the start of the recent crypto surge, there has been a spike in the use of stablecoins along with a clear increase in demand for other DeFi-related tokens. John Todaro, director of institutional research at TradeBlock, a trading platform for institutional investors, told Cointelegraph:

Stablecoin circulating supplies have increased substantially over the past 6 months, with Tether seeing around $10bn in deposits and USDC seeing over $1bn. This may seem small, but those deposits make Circle and Tether, to an extent, defacto banks with sizable customer deposits. $510 bn in customer deposits is equivalent to a small to midsize U.S. commercial bank.

Todaro added that while merchant adoption still remains limited for stablecoins, there is real demand for these assets in developing economies as well as those with political instability, such as in Latin America, parts of the Middle East, and to an extent, Hong Kong. He also noted that derivatives volumes have spiked recently (at Deribit, CME and others), but a large portion of that is tied to price action, as increased volatility almost always tends to drive increased trade volumes.

Vinokourov believes that the recent spell of low volatility and thin trading volumes has evolved into one of the busiest periods for digital assets in recent memory: Volumes on spot and derivatives venues spiked higher as Bitcoin traded over $11,000, and other large cap assets followed in lockstep. Vinokourov further opined:

Particular attention ought to be paid to the evolution of Ethereum volatility profile which, despite coming off recent highs, remains elevated relative to Bitcoin. This suggests more potential volatility for the second largest cryptocurrency.

Another aspect worth exploring is the relationship that may or may not exist between Bitcoins Fear and Greed Index and its price, and if the metric can suggest a possible price direction. Expounding his views on the matter, Todaro opined that the index is calculated based on a few variables that are, to an extent, affected by price, forcing the index to follow certain niche inputs such as the velocity of price gains, all-time high prices and price momentum, among other parameters.

For instance, if there is a large crash in the market, volatility will increase, and the index will conclude that the market has high fear. In doing so, the index ultimately follows the price. Additionally, the index captures Google trends, with high interest in positive crypto-related terms meaning high greed. Therefore, Todaro believes that the index can be used to make current and future investment decisions:

"While the price of Bitcoin isnt back to all-time highs, this was the fastest price gain over a 10-day period in its history, which would read extremely greedy, and so maybe it is time to sell and wait for a pullback to re-enter.

Another correlation worth exploring is the one between Bitcoin and the S&P 500. According to Quantum Economics founder Mati Greenspan, the previously high correlation between crypto-assets and the S&P 500 has now decreased:

We can clearly see earlier this year, where the correlation spiked up to 0.6 due to the multi-asset early-pandemic sell-off. By now, however, were once again below 0.2, which basically means that there is no correlation on a day-to-day basis anymore.

Furthermore, Greenspan noted that even a peak of 0.6 only represents a very loose correlation, adding, Many stocks have a very high correlation with each other, usually above 0.8 even if theyre in completely different industries, and many altcoins are similar.

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Bitcoin Price Continues Rally, Positive Sentiment Is Off the Charts - Cointelegraph

The Federal Reserve appears ready to pursue yet another untestedstrategy that could ultimately boost inflation and possibly prices for bitcoin.

The Fedis preparing to effectively abandon its strategy of pre-emptively lifting interest rates to head off higher inflation,according to a new report in theWall Street Journal.

Youre readingFirst Mover, CoinDesks daily markets newsletter. Assembled by the CoinDesk Markets Team, First Mover starts your day with the most up-to-date sentiment around crypto markets, which of course never close, putting in context every wild swing in bitcoin and more. We follow the money so you dont have to. You cansubscribe here.

The shift signals an explicit willingness by the central bankto tolerate higher inflation, at a time when the spreading coronavirus continues to ravage the economy. TheU.S.unemployment rate stands at11%, a levelnot witnessed since the early 1940s until this year.

TheFeds extra loosening ofmonetary policycould help support prices for bitcoin, which many cryptocurrency investors speculate could serve as an effective hedge against inflation, similar to gold. Bitcoin prices have already soared 58% this year, beating silvers 36% andgolds 30%, not to mention the 2% gain in the Standard & Poors 500 Index of large stocks.

Bitcoin rose 1.5% on Monday to $11,338.

As more investors look to digital goldas an inflation hedge in an increasingly digitized world amidst unprecedented government money printing, the cryptocurrency research firm Messari wrote Monday, we know that it wont take much of an institutional allocation until $50,000 bitcoin is back on the table.

The Fedalready has taken monetary policy to a new level of extraordinary this year,pumpingnearly $3 trillion of freshly created money into financial markets earlier and pushing its total assets to about $7 trillion.A growing number of investorsin both digital-asset and traditional markets say theflood of dollars could whittle downthe U.S. currencys purchasing power.

The dollar index, a gauge of the the currencys strength in foreign exchange markets, fell 4% in July, thebiggest monthly dropsince 2010. And the Wall Street brokerage firm Jefferies now predicts that the dollar could fall as much as 15%, according to CNBC.

Bank of America analysts wrote Monday in a report that its becoming a popular trade to bet against the dollar, since investors are worried about the long-term impact of the rapid accumulation of U.S. debt for the U.S. dollars reserve-currency status.

As gold, silver, equities, and long bonds reach record high levels, and the U.S. dollar slumps, the king of cryptocurrenciesmay be back in the spotlight for the foreseeable future,Jeff Dorman, chief investment officer of the cryptocurrency-focused firm Arca, wrote Monday in a weekly blog.

Under the Feds policy shift, according to the Wall Street Journal, the central bankwould allow inflation to drift above a 2% target before raising rates. The idea is that above-target inflation would offsetperiods where consumer price increases were previously below the mark, as has been the case for most of the past two decades.

The goal is not to increase inflation per se, but to provide assurances to investors that interest rates would remain lowfor a long time, according to the paper. Such accommodation could help to assure a faster economic recovery.

Yet, higher inflation could further distortalready uncanny signals emanating from bond markets, further undermining the dollars attractiveness. Nominal yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds are currently around 0.6%, close to historic lows. Once inflation is factored in, thereal yields equate tonegative 1%.

Assuming nominal yields dont rise much anytime soon, an inflation rate above 2% would cause bond investors to fall even further behind.

Negative real rates imply a loss in purchasing power from holding U.S. Treasuries,the ideal conditions for non-income producing assets such as gold and silver but also crypto assets like bitcoin, the analysis firm Delphi Digital wrote on July 31.

Theres some risk that a fresh panic in markets might prompt investors to rush back into dollars, which couldmeana redux of the March crash inbitcoin prices.

But according to an Aug. 2 Bloomberg News story, the next risk-off scenario might not see investors rushing into dollars, due to theflood of liquidity unleashed by the Fed.

Any haven rally is likely to be shallower than in previous years, according to the report, while the possible extent of depreciation remains the same.

Everything hinges on the dollar right now, Mati Greenspan, founder of the cryptocurrency-focused research firm Quantum Economics, wrote Monday in an emailto subscribers.

Tweet of the day

Bitcoin watch

BTC: Price: $11,186 (BPI) | 24-Hr High: $11,480 | 24-Hr Low: $11,164

Trend:Bitcoin is again struggling to find a foothold above $11,400 amid signs of buyer exhaustion on the three-day chart.

The number one cryptocurrency by market value is currently trading near $11,290, having hit a high of $11,424 during the Asian trading hours. Tuesday is the second straight day of bull failure above $11,400. Prices hit a high of $11,480 on Monday, but printed a UTC close below $11,240.

Essentially, bitcoins recovery rally from Sundays flash crash low of $10,659 has stalled with the area above $11,400 acting as stiff resistance.

The bulls need quick progress now, or the focus would shift to the uptrend exhaustion signaled by a major doji candle seen on the three-day chart.

A doji occurs when prices see two-way business during a specific period. While it is usually considered a sign of indecision, in this case, it has appeared following a notable rally to 11-month highs above $12,100. As such, it represents buyer fatigue.

The three-day charts relative strength index (RSI) is also reporting overbought conditions with an above-70 reading. Thus, a pullback to $11,000 cant be ruled out. A move below that psychological support would expose the former hurdle-turned-support at $10,500 (February high).

Alternatively, a sustained move above $11,400 on the hourly chart would strengthen the case for a re-test of recent highs above $12,000.

The leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups.

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First Mover: As Fed Nears Inflation Rubicon, Analysts See $50K Bitcoin in Play - CoinDesk - CoinDesk

@MarkHelfmanMark

Author, Consensusland: A Cryptocurrency Utopia. Editor, Crypto is Easy newsletter. #1 writer, Medium

Few people ask me about the social, political,and economicimpactof cryptographically-secure,time-stamped distributedledgers.

(Which stinks, I wrote a book,Consensusland, about that.)

No, most people ask should I buy bitcoin?

They seem interested in whether they can make money from its price going up.

So youd think the facts would convince them to buy bitcoin, right?

After all, its price has tripled over the past 18 months. Its up more than 50% so far this year and almost never finishes a year lower than where it started. Institutional investment in bitcoin funds grew more in the first half of this year than all previous years combined.

Nope, not enough.

Facts and history will not convince people to buy bitcoin. It will take something much more powerful.

Fortunately, that something is here.

Investors dont have any good ways to make money anymore. Traditional investments involve more risk and lower returns than ever before.

Thanks to the pandemic, you cant invest in the real economy. Nobodys making movies or going on cruises. Nobodys going to the theatre or sporting events. Nobody knows when (or if) building starts and big infrastructure projects will get off the ground.

Thanks to central banks, you cant invest in equities, cash, or debt, either.

The stock markets are full of businesses that have no profits or customers. Many corporations have stopped buying back shares. High P/E ratios suggest poor future returns and nobody knows whether the economy will rebound. For many companies, profits have dried up, making it hard for them to pay dividends.

(People like to say bitcoin doesnt offer dividends, but what happens when stocks dont either?)

Most major economies offer negative-yielding debt and US treasury notes rates remain effectively zero. Corporate debt is almost worthless, outside of a few bankrupt businesses waiting for somebody to take them over. Savings accounts pay maybe 1% if youre lucky.

Private equity, perhaps?

Perhaps not. Start-ups are strapped for cash and struggling to conquer COVID-19.

You cant even invest in banks anymore. European banks are barely solvent and the U.S. Federal Reserve stopped its banks from buying back stock and raising dividends, two of the biggest incentives for investors.

China and U.S. trade relations have fallen apart, so you cant invest in China. The E.U. might fall apart, so you cant invest in Europe.

As an investor, you want to find ways to maximize opportunities and minimize risks. In this new investment landscape, that means making unusual choices.

For example, money has started flowing to emerging markets, despite an ever-growing list of countries defaulting or restructuring their debt.

Why do investors feel compelled to buy investments in countries that probably will never repay them?

As always, you have speculators looking to flip bonds, but mostly, its just investors looking for yields. Unlike junk bonds and penny stocks, emerging markets have special financial instruments that protect investors from some of the downside risks.

Plus, unlike corporations, these countries can raise taxes when they fall short on payments. Meanwhile, massive QE suggests the value of the dollar will fall, making emerging market debts easier to repay over time.

Why buy junk bonds and penny stocks when you can get a higher return with less risk in emerging market debt?

This problem exists because of the so-called liquidity traplots of money, little yield, and people too scared to spend.

When you have no incentive to invest, you dont invest. Why give up cash and property when your expected risk-adjusted returns are basically zero?

Some people think that this liquidity trap has created a massive everything bubble where equities, businesses, bonds, property, and everything else gets pumped up beyond their real values.

Surelysomethinghas to give, right?

Economist Robert Shiller won a Nobel prize for his work on assets and how assets acquire value. He discovered that price is a function of peoples actions and behaviors. Markets are not efficient. Asset bubbles only pop when people stop believing in them.

Shiller would say its more nuanced than that, which is true, but Im summarizing decades of research into a paragraph. Thats the easiest way I can explain it.

In other words, the bubble may never popif its even a bubble in the first place. It will just persist, skewing peoples economic decisions, until people decide to change their behaviors.

Those behaviors will have to change eventually.

Money tends to flow into the hands of whoever can do the most with it. As asset prices rise, investments no longer produce as much yield as they did before. You need to spend more to make less.

At some point, investors will have to find better options. With $3 trillion sitting in U.S. bank accounts, $22 trillion in U.S.-registered investment funds, and at least $40 trillion in private wealth held offshore, plus trillions more in cash and real estate, theres a lot of money searching for yields.

Investors know this.

Recently, banks and large investment institutions got U.S. regulators to allow them to buy private equity, a market filled with small businesses that have never turned a profit.

At what point do money managers feel compelled to put some of their clients money into bitcoin, the best performing asset of the past ten years? Or, place a small wager on a token sale, like Harvard did?

Bitcoins price. It always seems to crash.

As long as bitcoins price always seems to crash, people will not put their money into it. We just need the price to go up long enough for people to start believing it will continue to go up.

At that point, everything will change. People will start to think they can make money from cryptocurrency. Theyll think its a better deal than cash, bonds, and stocks.

The search for yield is a very powerful motivator.

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Public Fascination with Bitcoin Price is Slowing the Adoption of Bitcoin - hackernoon.com

Most of us will be dead by then.

Projected to happen in the year 2106, Bitcoin will suddenly stop running based on the code its network of users is running today. Users wont be able to send bitcoin to others; miners securing Bitcoins global network will no longer serve a purpose. Bitcoin will just stop.

The good news is the bug is easy to fix. Its a problem Bitcoin developers have known about for years since at least 2012, maybe earlier, according to Bitcoin Core contributor Pieter Wuille. To some developers, the Bitcoin bug potentially sheds light on the limits to Bitcoins decentralization, since the community will all need to join together to fix it.

This is a consensus change but a very simple one, and I hope one that will be non-controversial, Blockstream co-founder and engineer Pieter Wuille told CoinDesk in an email. We have about 80 years left to address [the bug]. Who knows what might happen in such a time frame?

The bug is simple. Bitcoin blocks are the containers within which transactions are stored. Each Bitcoin block has a number tracking how many blocks come before it. But because of a limitation revolving around how block height numbers are stored, Bitcoin will run out of block numbers after block number 5101541.

In other words, at a block height roughly 86 years into the future, it will be impossible to produce any new blocks.

Hard fork

The change requires whats known as a hard fork, the most demanding method of making a change to a blockchain. Hard forks are tricky in that theyre not backwards-compatible, they require everyone running a Bitcoin node or miner to upgrade their software. Anyone who doesnt do so will be left behind on a stonewalled version of Bitcoin thats incapable of any activity.

While some blockchains, such as Ethereum, execute hard forks regularly, a hard fork isnt the happiest word in Bitcoin land.

The last time a Bitcoin hard fork was attempted, it attracted vicious debate. Several big Bitcoin businesses and miners rallied around a hard fork called Segwit2x in 2017. The problem is that far from everyone in the community agreed with the change, so many saw it as an attempt to force the upgrade on the community, which doesnt exactly jibe with Bitcoins ethos of leaderlessness.

Because of this diary entry in Bitcoins history, when many people in Bitcoin hear the phrase hard fork, they think of a centralized power trying to impose a change.

However, this bug fix hard fork comes in stark contrast to Bitcoins most famous hard fork attempt. Rather than attracting debate, the community and developers will most likely agree it is a change that needs to be made.

After all, anyone who chooses not to upgrade their software will eventually be running a dead Bitcoin chain.

Protocol 'ossification'

The bug fix is unlikely to be a controversial hard fork change. But that doesnt make the issue any less interesting.

In conversation with CoinDesk, Gustavo J. Flores, head of Product and Research at Bitcoin tech startup Veriphi, argued it brings to light a limit to Bitcoins protocol ossification.

Bringing to mind squishy cartilage hardening into bone over time, protocol ossification is the idea that Bitcoin will grow harder to change as it matures. The first several years of Bitcoins life, the protocol was immature and there were far fewer users and developers tinkering with the software, so the technology was easier to change. But Bitcoin may be hardening into a bony specimen that will be very difficult to change.

Protocol ossification means a certain point in time, some say it should be now, where Bitcoin doesnt change anymore. The rules are set such as a countrys constitution would be set, unchangeable, since it would be too decentralized to coordinate any change, Flores told CoinDesk.

Just a dream?

The reason many Bitcoin technologists think ossification is a good quality is because it is a sign the system is actually as decentralized as the community wants it to be, ensuring the system is really free from one person or entity stepping in and pushing through a change that isnt good.

Flores added that protocol ossification helps to prevent future tentatives that would resemble Segwit2x, where some actors try to force an upgrade because theyre known developers or big businesses, and this ends up hurting Bitcoin because its either untested code or cryptography, or because the change removes the core value proposition or would decrease decentralization which would hurt the core value proposition over the long term.

However, this bug makes it desirable to be able to coordinate a hard fork to fix it, since we all want Bitcoin to be able to survive that deadline, Flores said.

It basically brings us back to reality, where the dream of protocol ossification (which makes us achieve ultimate decentralization) is a further than expected and it might be just a dream, which we can get closer over time, but we cant ever complete it since emergencies such as this, might present themselves, Flores told CoinDesk.

The leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups.

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Fixing This Bitcoin-Killing Bug Will (Eventually) Require a Hard Fork - CoinDesk - CoinDesk

We are currently part of an unusual Bitcoin rally. Unlike Ethereum, Bitcoin hasnt surpassed its highs from 2019. It hasnt even come close, to be fair. However, many in the community remain bullish about Bitcoin only because it is not dropping from its yearly-high levels. As simple as that. At press time, the worlds largest cryptocurrency was trading at a price of $11,896.

Now, in the past, such credentials have rarely mattered for many times, we have witnessed a stark decline when Bitcoin has consolidated at a range for more than 48 hours. However, the present bully cycle might be different from its previous endeavors, hinting at a hypothesis that Bitcoin is inevitably changing.

Willy Woo, the creator of the Woo Bull charts and avid Bitcoin supporter, recently explained that Bitcoins 4-year bullish/bearish cycle is usually triggered by selling pressure reduction created every 4 years by the halving event.

He argued that the Bitcoin halving almost creates an impulse which leads to resonance, following which, the market starts falling in place like properly aligned dominoes.

However, Woo was quick to highlight that the impact of this impulse varies from cycle to cycle, so the performance of previous cycles cannot be taken as an example for the future market. He added,

As the sell pressure reduction from each halvening cycle reduces, the impulse has less strength. Eventually the scale of halvenings become insignificant, Bitcoins 4 year cycle will start to transition into the resonance of traditional markets (~10 years).

Do BTC ROI cycles vary over time?

Lets look into an analysis done by AMBCrypto a few months back.

According to the calculations based on a set of assumptions, it was found that while the bull cycle over time has lasted for a longer time, the ROI has steadily fallen. From the attached table, we can observe that the boom-bust cycle has become more stretched over time and the ROIs have decreased from cycle to cycle, as mentioned by Woo in his aforementioned tweet.

Now, it has been estimated that the 4th cycle, which is the ongoing one after the Bitcoin halving on 11 May, would be carried out for 1758.9 days and Bitcoin would eventually peak at $118,000 on 22 August 2022. However, as mentioned previously, the calculations have been done under a set of assumptions. Hence, the aforementioned predictions are not set in stone. They will possibly be in the same ballpark though.

Is Bitcoins cycle reacting to Black Swan events?

After Bitcoins implosion on 13 March 2020? Absolutely.

Although Bitcoins cyclic pattern has attained a certain level of maturity, the fact that Bitcoin strongly mirrored stocks during the crash in March is a glaring indication of the fact that the crypto-asset is not there yet.

The crash of March 2020 was the first real adversity faced by Bitcoin, an episode that highlighted its flaws that it is not completely uncorrelated to the traditional market. And of course, it cannot be, especially considering the fact that its total market cap is just a little over $200 billion.

Hence, in spite of behavioral maturity, Bitcoin is probably still vulnerable to movement in the traditional asset class, and that is an undeniable truth at the moment.

See more here:

Bitcoin may peak in 2022-2023, but it can still go wrong - AMBCrypto English

Bitcoin (BTC) greets another week with a push to $12,000 and its highest weekly close since after it hit $20,000 will it return?

Cointelegraph takes a look at five things that stand to impact BTC price performance in the coming five days.

Bitcoin hitting $12,000 again early Monday was more than just a boon for traders in doing so, BTC/USD sealed its highest close on weekly time frames since January 2018.

This means that no single week of price action ended at such high levels since, including during the height of last years bull market.

Having pleased analysts for several months in the short term, Bitcoin thus followed through on longer timeframes a crucial move to cement the upward trajectory.

Now, investors seeking confirmation that the bull market will continue may well have received it versus daily and hourly developments, a multi-year high weekly close is significant.

BTC/USD was thus up 2.4% on the day, with weekly gains sitting at 7% and monthly returns at over 30%.

Price-wise, $12,000 represents the highest that Bitcoin has reached since June 2019, three months after a Q2 bull market took the cryptocurrency from $4,000 to $13,800 a level which this cycle has yet to reach.

BTC/USD 7-day price chart. Source: Coin360

Bitcoins price surge comes the week after United States president Donald Trump added to existing geopolitical tensions by banning Chinese social media platform TikTok.

The resulting escalation of ties with Beijing adds to existing weakness in the U.S. dollar and ongoing concerns over Coronavirus a perfect storm for a flight to safe haven assets.

At the same time, Trump signed a series of executive orders on Coronavirus stimulus, something which now has a curious impact on markets which are already subject to heavy intervention from the Federal Reserve.

This time around, however, the measures will have a smaller direct effect on the average American. A payroll tax delay, for example, does not go far enough in the eyes of critics.

This fake tax cut would also be a big shock to workers who thought they were getting a tax cut when it was only a delay, Bloomberg quoted Democratic Senator Ron Wyden as saying in a statement.

These workers would be hit with much bigger payments down the road.

It is this delaying the inevitable financial cost to personal wealth, which lies at the heart of the pro-Bitcoin argument high-time-preference economic behavior ultimately costs much more in the long term than the immediate benefit to the target audience.

Where Bitcoin might head in the short term is now less clear cut when considering its historical performance versus other macro assets.

The period since March, which saw a cross-asset crash, was marked first by a correlation to stock markets, and then to safe havens and specifically gold.

Gold hit its all-time highs in U.S. dollar terms weeks before Bitcoin began significantly gaining, and its run has continued until now.

A slight correction took XAU/USD to $2,030 from highs of near $2,075 should the trend continue, Bitcoin may likewise cool off from its upward momentum.

Nonetheless, as Cointelegraph reported, incoming action from the Fed looks set to buoy the precious metal further in a wildly bullish policy shift to expanding inflation way beyond its current rate of 0.6%.

Stocks were likewise looking less stable analysts were warning over fallout for developing markets thanks to Turkeys currency crisis, and China sanctioning U.S. officials over Hong Kong added to pressure.

Bitcoin up as tensions rise in Asia. Capital flight out of Asia taking the Bitcoin express, RT host Max Keiser summarized, adding:

You cant take it with you, unless its Bitcoin - then you can take IT ALL with you (Something near impossible with Gold).

Another volatile weekend has opened up a classic feature for short-term Bitcoin price forecasting a gap in CME Bitcoin futures markets.

The weekends volatility means that futures finished Friday at $11,680 and began again at $11,750. The resulting void provides a key price target, with Bitcoin historically filling such gaps within days or even hours.

Last week saw just such a setup emerge, with volatility aiding the trend after weeks of flat price action removed gaps from the market altogether.

Another gap lower down at $9,700 still remains from July.

CME Bitcoin futures chart showing recent latest gaps. Source: TradingView

For quant analyst PlanB, creator of Bitcoins stock-to-flow price forecasting model, the bullish action of the past weeks is exactly to be expected.

Earlier in August, PlanB noted that BTC/USD was filling out the stock-to-flow chart according to historical precedent since Mays block subsidy halving, dots have confirmed that current behavior falls within the rules.

Bitcoin stock-to-flow chart as of August 10. Source: Digitalik

On the topic of major players flipping bullish, meanwhile, he added last week that when bitcoin was $4k in 2019, lot of big accounts were bearish, predicting $1k.

Behind the scenes, however, signs were that if $6,000 appeared, the mood would change to favor the bulls.

That actually happened, we shot through $6k. Now many were bearish at $9k .. $13.5k will be interesting, PlanB wrote.

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Bitcoin Price Seals Best Weekly Close in 2.5 Years: 5 Things to Know - Cointelegraph

The coronavirus pandemic has caused an unprecedented global economic crisis, not unlike the 2008 global financial crisis that led to bitcoin's creation.

A number of investors have turned to bitcoin in recent months to combat the inflation they see coming as a result of the unprecedented coronavirus stimulus measures the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks have pumped into the system.

Now, with the bitcoin price following other so-called safe-haven assets like gold higher over the last week, U.S. Congressman Tom Emmer has said he expects bitcoin to "get stronger" as the world emerges from the coronavirus crisis.

Rep. Tom Emmer, R-Minn., is a long-time advocate of bitcoin, cryptocurrencies and blockchain and ... [+] thinks bitcoin will be strengthened once the world emerges from the economic chaos caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

"As we come out of the crisis, bitcoin isn't going away," U.S. representative Tom Emmer (R-MN) told bitcoin and crypto investor Anthony Pompliano, speaking during an interview on Pompliano's popular podcast, adding bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are going to "continue to become more and more important."

"[Bitcoin is] going to get stronger. You just watch, it has value, when something has value, people are going to take risks and its going to advance."

Emmer pointed to recent developments, including U.S. regulators last week authorizing banks to provide custody for cryptocurrencies, as the kind of progress that will bring bitcoin and crypto into the mainstream.

Emmer also criticized modern centralized monetary systems, going back to the U.S. departure from the gold standard in the 1970s.

"There are things happening that are going to disrupt the centralized nature of our society. We're about to blow that whole thing up, because of the pandemic, I believe," Emmer said.

Bitcoin is powered by decentralized blockchain technology that replaces centralized authority with a distributed network. Using blockchain, some think governments will be able to move away from top-down, centralized systems.

"I think were just moving into that next phase, which is why crypto, the area, excites me."

After crashing in March, the bitcoin price has strongly rebounded, climbing back above the ... [+] psychological $10,000 per bitcoin level last month.

Emmer has advocated for decentralized and blockchain-powered innovation in the past, calling for the U.S. government to take advantage of cryptocurrency technology.

Just this week, he co-signed a letter to the IRS, requesting the U.S. tax agency create a policy that supports the protocols used to create some cryptocurrencies, known as proof-of-stake.

Earlier this year, he raised concerns that regulation could ultimately smother innovation and called on the U.S. government to provide more regulatory clarity for the crypto industry.

"We're not going backward when it comes to the internet superhighway," Emmer told Pompliano. "We've got to go forward."

Emmer also used the recent Twitter hack, where high-profile Twitter accounts were hijacked and used to promote a bitcoin scam, to lend his support to bitcoin.

"Bitcoin isn't the problem," he tweeted in the wake of the attack. "Centralized control is."

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U.S. Congressman: Coronavirus Crisis Will Make Bitcoin More Important And Stronger - Forbes

Bitcoin

Bitcoin rose by 5.57% in the week ending 9th August. Following on from an 11.11% rally from the previous week, Bitcoin ended the week at $11,675.3.

It was a bullish week for Bitcoin and the broader market. Bitcoin slipped to a Monday intraweek low $10,943.0 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $9,967, Bitcoin rallied to a Friday intraweek high $11,900.

Falling short of the weeks first major resistance level at $12,119, Bitcoin fell back to $11,500 levels before finding support.

5 days in the green that included a 4.93% rally on Wednesday delivered the upside for the week.

Bitcoin would need to avoid a fall through $11,506 pivot to support another run the first major resistance level at $12,069 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break out from the current week high $12,060.

Barring another extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of a breakout, Bitcoin could break out from the second major resistance level at $12,463 to target $13,000 levels.

A fall through the $11,506 pivot would bring the first major support level at $11,112 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, Bitcoin should avoid sub-$11,000 levels and the second major support level at $10,549.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up by 2.80% to $12,002.0. A bullish start to the week saw Bitcoin rise from an early morning low $11,675.3 to a high $12,060 on Monday.

Bitcoin tested the first major resistance level at $12,069 at the start of the week.

Ripples XRP slipped by 0.04% in the week ending 9th August. Following the previous weeks 33.50% breakout, Ripples XRP ended the week at $0.28781.

A bullish start to the week saw Ripples XRP rally to a Monday intraweek high $0.31950 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $0.3395, Ripples XRP slid to a Friday intraweek low $0.27742.

Steering well clear of the first major support level at $0.22249, Ripples XRP revisited $0.29 levels before slipping back to sub-$0.29 levels and into the red.

3-days in the red reversed Mondays 7.68% rally to leave Ripples XRP in the red for the week.

Ripples XRP would need to avoid a fall through the $0.29491 pivot to support a run at the first major resistance level at $0.31240.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripples XRP to break back through to $0.31 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another breakout, 23.6% FIB of $0.3134 and the second major resistance level at $0.33699 could come into play.

A fall through the $0.29491 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.27032 into play.

Barring an extended broader-market sell-off, however, Ripples XRP should steer well clear of the second major support level at $0.25283.

At the time of writing, Ripples XRP was up by 2.62% to $0.29536. A bullish start to the week saw Ripples XRP rise from an early Monday low $0.28821 to a high $0.29550.

Ripples XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested at the start of the week.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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Bitcoin and Ripples XRP Weekly Technical Analysis August 10th, 2020 - Yahoo Finance

Quick take:

Just yesterday, crypto traders and enthusiasts were optimistic that Bitcoin (BTC) would close the week above the $11,500 support zone. As it so happens, Bitcoin did more than close above the preferred value of $11,500 but went as far as to retest the $12k ceiling and print a daily peak of $12,077 Binance rate.

The move up by Bitcoin to $12k levels has been attributed to Grayscales national ad campaign that starts today, August 10th. According to Barry Silbert, the founder of Grayscale, the campaign ads will be on the major US TV stations of CNBC, MSNBC, FOX and Fox Business. Mr. Silbert also added that the goal of the ad campaign is to bring crypto to the masses. His comments can be found in the following Tweet.

The Managing Director of Grayscale, Michael Sonnenshein, went further and announced that the first ad will be aired on CNBC at 7 am ET. Below is his Tweet making the announcement.

As earlier mentioned, Bitcoin bulls were optimistic that BTC would close the week at a value above $11,500. The last time Bitcoin closed the week above this price level was in January 2018. Therefore, by achieving this feat only hours ago, Bitcoin has confirmed that it is still in bullish territory. Furthermore, it also indicates that the value of BTC has more room to grow.

What remains to be seen in the hours or days to follow, is whether Bitcoin successfully turns the $12k price area into a support zone. At the time of writing, trade volume is in the green and the 6-hour MACD is about to cross in a bullish manner pointing to a possible second drive up for Bitcoin as it attempts to permanently claim $12k.

As with all analyses of Bitcoin, traders and investors are advised to use adequate stop losses as well as low leverage to protect trading capital.

Read more here:

BTC Breaks $12k on the Eve of Grayscale's Bitcoin TV Ad Campaign - Ethereum World News

Just recently, news.Bitcoin.com talked to a number of individuals and asked them to let us know what they think the price of bitcoin and gold will be by the years end. Rather than leveraging the typical predictions from experts, executives, and crypto luminaries, the post delves into the perspective of average people and what they think about the future value of these assets.

Back in May 2016, I used a number of social media avenues in order to survey people on what they would do if bitcoin (BTC) touched the $10,000 mark. The article was very popular and of course, we all know that BTC reached the $10k zone the following year in 2017. Its been a long while since the 2017 bull run, so I decided to do the experiment once again leveraging my 4,700 friends on Facebook and a few members from a private crypto-focused Telegram channel.

Basically I asked what people think the price of bitcoin (BTC) and the price of one troy ounce of .999 fine gold will be by December 31, 2020. None of the participants are deemed experts, luminaries, or are billionaires with the same old predictions.

The people who answered are your average, everyday people who follow the cryptocurrency ecosystem. They also understand the faltering, manipulated monetary system bolstered by the central banking cabal as well. The first person who answered the price prediction question, an individual named Archer, said he believes bitcoin (BTC) will be $100,000. Archer also thinks the price of an ounce of gold will be $3,000 by the years end.

The Federal Reserve is pumping trillions of dollars into the economy, the U.S. is suffering civil unrest (and will likely suffer more, especially pre/post-election), Archer said explaining his rationale. Many city/state governments are near bankruptcy already, employment is at +30%, and will likely only get worse as the pandemic continues. I expect that there will be Greek-style bank shutdowns, capital controls, hyperinflation, negative interest rates, which will cause a flight to hard, portable assets.

A guy named Doug thinks bitcoin will be $16,000 by December 31, and gold will reach $3,300. Matt explained that he thinks gold will be $3,300 per ounce as well, but he expects BTC to jump to $35,000. Money printer go brrrrrrrr, is the rationale behind Matts reasoning. My old roommate Andy expects BTC to be valued at $21,243 and gold will be $4,116, but he also thinks a cow will be valued at $104,231.

Preston says BTC will be $24,000 by December 31 and gold will top $3,200 by the years end. I believe theyll be a significant price increase due to current unstable markets but due to reduction in monetary supply among lower classes, it wont completely go parabolic. Same with gold, Preston said explaining his forecasts reasoning.

Sarah gave me a random guess and said she thinks BTC will cross $33,000, while gold remains in the $2,000 range. Alfred said that he doesnt know much about gold but predicts BTC will be $10,100 by the years end. Alfred further explained his rationale:

People tend to spend more fiat during December, this will trigger more sell order plus miners recapitulation. The recent surge in price could be traced to the growing interest in an alternative source of income, which BTC seems to provide due to the closure of business activities plus growing interest in Defi in Ethereum blockchain. Things are returning to shape gradually and in the next quarter, I see the price stabilizing at $10,000 support level.

Andrew says with his prediction we will see BTC touch $15,000 per coin, while gold reaches $2,500. I think the main push for BTC will be from the retail side, Andrew stressed. The number of friends asking me how do I buy Bitcoin is at an all-time high reminds me of 2017. Gold will continue to rise for obvious reasons.

Steve says BTC will be $13,500 and gold will be $2,300 at the end of the year. Chris told me hes not a gold bug and thinks BTC will be anywhere between $8-12,000 by the years end. Another friend named Freya thinks gold will be $4,000 per ounce, but BTC will be $60,000.

BTC will be $23,500 and gold $2,400, said Rene. The issuance of more stimulus only serves to continue the devaluation of the dollar, and increase the value of more finite forms accepted as a store of value.

Adam seems to think BTC will be $15,500 and gold makes it to $5k by the end of the year. Hyperinflation causes Bitcoin to absorb debt and increase in value, where fiat does the opposite and devalues exponentially, Adam wrote. An individual named Colm said:

Bitcoin will be $33,000. Gold??? Its funny how folk buy gold but yet receive nothing. Silver maybe, but my trust is in blockchain.

The predictions were interesting and I got around 52 responses between Telegram and the Facebook channels leveraged. Interestingly, most of the gold predictions were relatively similar while BTC forecasts were all over the place. A number of others gave price predictions without reasoning as well. Daniel thinks BTC will be $17,000 and gold will be $2,390.

The participant Taylor gave me the lowest prediction for BTC with bitcoin at $5,400 and gold at $2,300. Tarik thinks the price of BTC will be $16,000 and the respondent Neeraj agrees.

BTC will be $16,000, Neeraj concluded. We will have heavy resistance at $20k and gold $2,500 as it moves slowly, but we are definitely knee-deep in inflation. With bitcoin, we could either be slowing down as we approach the all-time high (ATH) or touch it and come back to the handle part of the cup and handle that we always see before liftoff.

What do you think about the average peoples predictions about bitcoins and golds future price? Let us know in the comments section below.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. It is not a direct offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation or endorsement of any products, services, or companies. Bitcoin.com does not provide investment, tax, legal, or accounting advice. Neither the company nor the author is responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any content, goods or services mentioned in this article.

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Year-End Gold and Bitcoin Price Predictions from Regular Everyday People | Featured - Bitcoin News

CEO and founder of Real Vision Raoul Pal says his conviction levels in Bitcoin are rising on a daily basis as he compares the crypto asset to traditional investments on various timescales.

Applying economic cycle theory in a series of charts posted to Twitter on Aug. 6, the former Goldman Sachs fund manager stated that although many investors choose gold as an alternative to fiat, Bitcoin (BTC) has been the only asset in the world to offset the growth of the G4 balance sheet. The G4 refers to the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the Federal Reserve, and the European Central Bank.

Its not stocks, not bonds, not commodities, not credit, not precious metals, not miners. Only one asset massively outperformed over almost any time horizon: Bitcoin.

G4 central bank balance sheet in Bitcoin terms. Source: RaoulGMI

The CEO continued:

My conviction levels in Bitcoin rise every day. Im already irresponsibly long. I am now thinking it may not be even worth owning any other asset as a long-term asset allocation, but that's a story for another day.

Pal told Cointelegraph in May that the devaluation of world currencies will cause the price of Bitcoin to rise 50x to 100x in the next five years. He interpreted economic cycle theory charts to mean the cryptocurrency could eventually reach $1 million.

As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin is approaching $11,800, having risen 6% in the last seven days.

Read more from the original source:

Raoul Pal: It May Not Be Worth Owning Any Asset Other Than Bitcoin - Cointelegraph