I suspect that, during the dramatic news of coronavirus, few people lingered long over two recent stories. One was the report from the Red Cross that a fresh refugee and migrant crisis is building up, with long-term demographic pressures augmented by the economic distress and destitution caused by Covid-19 as it reaches the poorest people in the poorest countries. The second was an analysis of population trends, published in Lancet, predicting an implosion of numbers later this century and a marked ageing in Europe and Asia offset by many more, and younger, Africans.

In my formative years, in the 50s and 60s, the conventional wisdom was that we faced the grim prospect of a population explosion or time bomb detonated by irresistible exponential growth. The planet was fast running out of resources and food supplies would be outstripped by unsustainable demand. The dismal theories of economist Thomas Malthus were rehabilitated and given modern flavouring by the emerging environmental movement. Mass starvation could only be avoided by restrictive population policy, centring on birth control.

Some countries took these warnings seriously including Maos China with its extreme "one child" policy and, briefly, India where, under Indira Gandhis emergency, there was a campaign of mass sterilisation, not all voluntary (as also in China).

Sharing the full story, not just the headlines

But the history of countries which developed economically shows that the idea of populations exploding indefinitely is absurd: rather, there was a demographic transition as countries progressed from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates via a period of continued high birth rates and low death rates.

The key factors in shortening the transition was the empowerment of women through education, and reducing child mortality. Once people thought their children had a good chance of survival, the perceived necessity to have several was reduced. This has happened even in parts of the world like Bangladesh and much of India. There has been enormous progress in development, especially in the two decades around the turn of the century, reflected in the success, until recently, in meeting the UNs Millennium Development Goals.

So, how have we got from paranoia about explosions to potential implosions? The recently publicised study suggests the planets population will peak at 9.7bn in 2064 (from 7.6bn today), so we are unlikely to experience loneliness any time soon. But by the end of the century it is predicted that some countries already experiencing population decline like Japan, Spain and Italy will have more than halved their population. China will join them as members of the less than 50 per cent club, and the population they have left will be very old.

More mainstream forecasts have the global population peaking later. But the key insight of the Lancet study is that something new is happening many societies in Europe and Asia are no longer replacing their population from one generation to the next. Female empowerment, leading to the enjoyment of worthwhile careers, is clearly a factor. So is the sheer practical difficulty of raising children in environments where the cost and availability of childcare and housing are prohibitive and jobs are precarious. Added to those is a minority but growing belief that having one child or no children contributes to saving the planet.

Even if there is some rebalancing back to larger families it is unlikely to change the fundamental conundrum of the rich world (including China), which is growing numbers of economically inactive and medically dependent older people, supported by a shrinking working population.

By contrast, the population of sub-Saharan Africa is set to treble by the end of the century. The Lancet study suggests that Nigeria will have grown to 791m people by 2100, surpassing China whose population will have shrunk to 732 million.

The army of people identified by the Red Cross as hovering on the north coast of Africa in desperate circumstances, and hoping to make a new life in Europe, is surely set to grow. They are only too anxious to give developed countries the benefit of their labour, while Western governments have been equally anxious to keep them out. A question at the heart of the identity politics which drives tough immigration policy is whether richer countries want in the long run to be ethnically diverse, youthful, and productive, or homogeneous and geriatric.

The part of the world which will find this dilemma most difficult is Asia. Japanese and Chinese societies, in particular, have a strong sense of racial identity and exclusiveness. Immigration is still a lesser issue and where it is permitted, mostly kept well out of sight (as in the Singaporean dormitories which have incubated Covid-19 with such ease). Japan appears to have consciously opted for planned senescence, and all Chinas muscle-flexing as the worlds new superpower wont conceal its fate. Both are set to be old before their time.

The US is better placed. An open, if ugly, debate about its long-term future is underway. The last two American presidents one the son of an African immigrant, the other a white nativist represent two scenarios facing the country. Trumps imaginary wall is probably the nearest he and his followers will really get to stemming the tide of diversity. Whatever the outcome of Novembers election, the US economy cannot withstand a real and prolonged closure of its borders.

In Western Europe, too, the border is permeable, like the leaky boats which try to breach it. A key turning point was German chancellor Angela Merkels decision to admit one million Syrian refugees. At the time it was damned with faint praise as courageous but foolish; now that the arrivals are being methodically, and apparently successfully, integrated the initiative seems to be a hallmark of modern Germanys strength, self-confidence and optimism.

In its weird and eccentric way, even Britain may yet follow the same script. I took Brexit to be a conscious decision to turn our backs not just on Europe but on the world. It was all about immigration, and we didnt want any more. Now, I am not so sure. Since the convulsion of the EU referendum, immigration has been mentioned by far fewer people in Ipsos MORI polls about the most important issues facing the nation. This peaked at 56 per cent in September 2015 but had fallen to 13 per cent by November 2019.

Perhaps the governments welcome for Hong Kong Chinese will prove sincere. Maybe they will open the door to South Asians and Africans who are rich in points under the new immigration system. This approach to immigration has everything to do with economic pragmatism, and nothing to do with humanitarianism. It wont help many of the people in leaky boats on the Mediterranean. But at least it leaves the door half-open to a rejuvenated population.

Read more:

The refugee and migrant crisis is getting worse. Our approach has to change if we want everyone to thrive - The Independent

It is the single largest cluster of positive cases detected on the Mediterranean island since the first case was reported on March 7. The Maltese Health Ministry said 85 of 94 rescued migrants had been tested so far. It gave no further information about their condition.

The discovery that so many of the group had COVID-19 has bolsterered concerns that a recent increase in new arrivals could undermine local efforts to eliminate the disease.

It has also sparked fresh worries over the safety of the migrants who are already putting their lives at risk on dangerous journeys across the Mediterranean.

The nationalities of the migrants has not been revealed but their dinghy is believed to have set sail from Libya.

A health ministry spokesman said: So far, the swab results of 85 of these migrants are available and 65 of these 85 migrants have tested positive.

"Migrants arriving by boat are immediately quarantined for 14 days and tested.

"The migrants who are positive will continue to be isolated and the rest will remain in quarantine and followed up."

The spokesman tried to play down fears the migrants' arrival could cause a fresh spike in cases on the island.

He said: "This group arrived in Malta together and were in contact with very few other people before they were tested."

READ MORE:Greece accused of horror coronavirus treatment as thousands detained

Malta's armed forces rescued the migrants north of Libya on Sunday and took them ashore at a military base near the capital Valletta.

A volunteer organisation, Alarm Phone, on Sunday morning said the dinghy was overcrowded and taking in water.

It said the boat was located within Malta's search-and-rescue region.

The migrants had issued a distress signal from their packed dinghy on Sunday but it took more than 30 hours for rescuers to reach them.

Non-governmental agencies have accused both Malta and Italy of deliberately slowing down rescue missions in an effort to dissuade people from putting to sea and seeking a better life in Europe.

Read more here:

Shock as 65 out of 85 migrants rescued from sea test POSITIVE for COVID - Daily Express

Golden Globe and BAFTA-winning actress Sigourney Weaver (Alien, Avatar, Gorillas in the Mist) has been tapped to narrate Secrets of the Whales, a four-part event series for Nat Geo, with Oscar-winning filmmaker and National Geographic Explorer-At-Large James Cameron to serve as executive producer. The series, which chronicles the whale way way of life, is set to premiere globally on Nat Geo on Earth Day, April 22, 2021 in 172 countries and 43 languages. The project was announced Monday as part of Nat Geos virtual summer TCA press tour presentation.

From National Geographic Explorer and Photographer Brian Skerry, Secrets of the Whales chronicles the whale way of life and their challenges and triumphs in an ever-changing ocean. Filmed across three years in 24 locations, the series is a personal saga, venturing deep into the world of whales to reveal life and love from their perspective.

Per Nat Geo, Weaver guides viewers on a journey to the heart of whale culture to experience the extraordinary communication skills and intricate social structures of five different whale species. With the help of new science and technology, viewers witness whales making lifelong friendships, teaching clan heritage and traditions to their young and grieving deeply for the loss of loved ones.

Skerrys latest work will also be featured in National Geographic magazine and the National Geographic book Secrets of the Whales timed to the special.

National Geographic has long been deepening our connection to the world around us, and Im honored to team up with them to narrate this stunning series, says Weaver. Viewers get up close and personal and experience the extraordinary emotion, grace and power of these magnificent creatures. They get to know them intimately in order to ultimately realize just how like them we truly are.

Secrets of the Whales has all the elements I love new tech used for scientific inquiry, wrapped in great storytelling that visually excites and emotionally resonates, says Cameron. Im proud to work with my longtime partner, National Geographic, in showing incredible new insights into the inner world of whales, their emotion and culture. These majestic, mysterious animals continue to surprise us.

Capturing these whales on film has been one of the most rewarding experiences of my entire life, and Im thrilled to bring the complexity and beauty of these creatures right to viewers living rooms, says Skerry. It is my hope that in venturing into their world, viewers recognize themselves in these animals joy, pain, love and relationships and are as inspired by them as I am.

One of the worlds top ocean photographers, Skerry has spent more than 10,000 hours underwater, documenting uncharted territory and elucidating environmental issues, often leading to policy change.

Secrets of the Whales is produced for National Geographic by Red Rock Films. For Red Rock Films, Brian Armstrong and Shannon Malone-DeBenedictis are executive producers. For Earthship, James Cameron and Maria Wilhelm are executive producers and Kim Butts is associate producer. For National Geographic, Pamela Caragol is executive producer and Geoff Daniels is executive vice president of global unscripted entertainment for National Geographic Global Networks.

Original post:

Sigourney Weaver & James Cameron Board Secrets Of The Whales Event Series For Nat Geo TCA - Deadline

The UK is on the brink of losing the highly skilled and experienced migrant workers currently propping up the care sector. If the government does not make changes to its new points-based immigration system a major crisis could emerge. These key workers cannot be replaced by digital innovations, while UK workers are increasingly reluctant to enter into what is a low-paid and extremely stressful profession.

It is estimated that the care sector requires 520,000 additional workers before 2035 to support the UKs ageing population. The sector currently relies on migrant workers. Most migrant care workers are set to be excluded from the governments points-based immigration system, unveiled in July, because the pay is so low.

From 2021, new rules will require a minimum pay threshold of 20,480. This will effectively prevent migrant care workers and home carers from entering the UK because average pay for care workers is 16,500 per year. Low pay means that, regardless of their ability to accrue transferable points, care workers will not be eligible for visas.

Additionally, the work done by care workers and home carers does not meet the skills threshold for the new Health and Care Visa. This visa will fast track migrants in the healthcare sector, offering reduced application fees and exempting them from the Immigration Health Surcharge (624 per year from October 2020). But the new visa is only for doctors, nurses and other health professionals not care workers. Excluding care workers could potentially be disastrous.

For the past decade, approximately one in six or 83,000 of the 1.5m home care and care workers in England have been non-UK nationals. While the proportion of migrants has been stable, their countries of origin have changed. Most migrant care workers came from outside the EU until 2012, when the current minimum pay threshold of 30,000 was introduced. After 2012, EU migrants took up care work jobs because this minimum pay threshold did not apply to free movement.

Brexit will end free movement for EU care workers at the same time as the new salary threshold is applied to migrants. Currently, the sector has an 8% vacancy rate. Where will desperately needed new workers come from? Leading health bodies, care workers and home carers themselves are deeply worried about this change.

Migrant care workers are typically overqualified. Many have professional healthcare qualifications in nursing, or prior experience in the sector. Care work does not offer adequate remuneration to reflect their skills. It involves depressed wages, long hours and difficult work conditions that discourage British workers. Migrants can endure these conditions when they are able to invest their earnings in property, business and family betterment back home (where many will hope to retire).

For British workers, on the other hand, care works low wages rarely lead to better prospects. Many find themselves pushed towards the care sector when they cannot find other work. Often this push comes at a point where they have little security in their housing and personal lives. Adding to their insecurity, around one-quarter of care work is now delivered through zero-hours contracts.

With under-staffing, longer hours or truncated visits, even care workers working steady hours find themselves overwhelmed and exhausted. Research shows that staff shortages and longer hours lead to increased fatigue, irritability, and demotivation for workers and these conditions can lead to potentially dangerous mistakes.

But if migrants are blocked from taking these roles then UK residents will be expected to plug the gaps. In April, the health minister, Matt Hancock, began a recruitment drive for the sector, targeting 20-39 year-olds. Previous recruitment drives have done little to alleviate the sectors chronic labour shortages. Despite a 20% increase in advertised care roles in the first quarter of 2020, applications decreased by 17.8%. Previous drives havent affected the sectors 30% turnover rate which has risen from 23% in 2012. Data on recruitment and retention tell us these are not desirable jobs.

Current care workers report highly exploitative conditions including a lack of adequate sleeping and sanitary facilities. Precarious conditions and low pay have meant some care workers have had to use foodbanks and claim benefits. Meanwhile, in the COVID-19 pandemic, female careworkers and home carers have had the highest death rates of all occupations for women.

Jobs in the rest of the healthcare sector are being transformed. The NHS has furthered its digital first approach during the pandemic, spurred on by social distancing requirements, through NHSX its new digital branch, which was formed in April 2019. With annual investment of more than 1bn, NHSX claims to be the largest digital health and social care transformation programme in the world. But the video/telephone/email consultations that are proving effective for other patient and staff groups will be slow to come to care work. Though these technologies can lower costs in other health settings, the feeding, cleaning and personal care which comprises care work cannot be digitised.

Devaluing care and labelling care workers unskilled has created a sense of alienation and hopeless frustration for British care workers. Long hours, low pay, intensely physical and emotionally demanding work can undermine the ability of carers to care either for themselves or others. Improvements to pay and working conditions are long overdue. But it is a change in the new immigration scheme that is needed most, if the emerging crisis is to be averted.

Huge sections of the UK community rely entirely on these un-cared for workers. A coerced and reluctant workforce will most definitely affect the quality of care the sector delivers.

See the original post here:

New points-based immigration system will lead to care crisis - The Conversation UK

Written by Pranav Mukul, Aashish Aryan, Prabha Raghavan, Aanchal Magazine | New Delhi | Updated: August 4, 2020 10:44:23 am Many of them are now realising that the rural economy has hit a saturation point and cannot absorb more workers.

A key bellwether of activity in the manufacturing sector slipped in July after two months of steady growth reflecting the adverse impact of localised lockdowns by states to fight the surging Covid curve. For those who lost their jobs, this fresh metric three months into the lockdown PMI falling to 46 in July from 47.2 in June is a disquieting reminder that a return to normalcy, or even a sustainable uptick, is far away.

More so for the thousands, who because of job losses or lacking a safety net if infected, moved from metros and urban industrial hubs to their hometowns and villages. Many of them are now realising that the rural economy has hit a saturation point and cannot absorb more workers.

Take Chittranjan Kushwaha.

The first in his family to hold a diploma in engineering, 30-year old Kushwaha went to Pune in 2014 and found an assembly line job with a major auto-component maker. Earning a monthly average of Rs 21,000, he was laid off in the lockdown and so returned to his family in Kushinagar, eastern Uttar Pradesh.

Opinion| Despite govt claims, migrants continue to be vulnerable and abandoned

Unlike many, Kushwaha got lucky: his diploma helped him get a job at a Common Service Centre (CSC) but at less than one third of his Pune salary.

His expenses are down as he doesnt have to pay rent but the drastic cut in income means he has to cut several corners. One big casualty: his childrens education.

After schools closed, I paid fees for a month. After that I got them de-registered. How will I pay Rs 1500 for three kids? he said.

Kushwahas case is emblematic of the crisis that has hit a majority of those who returned. Their scale is sweeping.

Official records show that of the 64 lakh migrant workers across 116 districts in six states Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and Odisha (covered under the Garib Kalyan Rojgar Abhiyaan), a quarter returned to just 17 districts across these states.

The highest number of returned migrants under the scheme has been registered for Bihar, with 32 districts accounting for 23.6 lakh or 37.2 per cent of the total migrant workers covered, followed by Uttar Pradesh, with 17.47 lakh returned workers (27.5 per cent of the total) and Madhya Pradesh with 10.71 lakh workers or 16.9 per cent of the total.

Read| Rs 50,000-crore scheme to provide jobs for migrants returning home

The progress of the monsoon and a good summer sowing notwithstanding, the surge in Covid-19 case numbers in Bihar, Jharkhand and Uttar Pradesh is beginning to hurt the rural economy and so most of these workers are struggling to make ends meet.

The reduction in disposable income for many families comes on the top of an already increased household savings a metric that indicates people start saving more than they spend to cover themselves in situations like job losses or pay cuts, which, in turn, is an indicator of a slump in the economy.

RBI records show net financial savings went up to 7.7% of GDP in 2019-20, compared with 7.2% in 2018-19.

This improvement has occurred due to moderation in household bank borrowings being sharper than that in bank deposits, except in the fourth quarter of 2019-20 due to COVID-19 related economic disruptionsSeveral studies show that households tend to save more during a slowdown and income uncertainty, the RBI noted.

Explained| Half of 30 lakh workers who returned to UP are unskilled, MNREGA the main avenue for jobs so far

Job opportunities, few and far between, for those who have returned home are largely coming from public setups. A number of states, including Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, have rolled out migrant labour employment schemes, in addition to the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGA).

In all of the 116 districts covered under the Garib Kalyan Rojgar Abhiyaan, the number of households availing MGNREGA work in these districts jumped to 89.83 lakh during May 86.27 per cent up from 48.22 lakh in the same month last year.

However, despite these efforts, several are still struggling to find a job.Companies such as Maruti Suzuki India Ltd, Indias biggest carmakers, have been ramping up output but are largely relying on local workers since those from UP and Bihar are yet to return.

Deepak Kumar from Dhagar in Bhiwani district is among those who has queued up at Marutis Manesar factory over the past few days. With the facility restoring output to near normal levels, Kumar and other ITI diploma-holders from nearby towns in Haryana many have prior work experience here have responded to calls to return.

My hope is that even if they keep me as a temporary employee, they should not ask me to leave soon, Kumar said. Until he got the call, he said, he was unemployed and working on a farm.

Similar is the plight of Santosh Kumar, 32, from Dinapatti village in Supaul, Bihar. He ran errands at a small aviation logistics company in Mumbai but went back to his village in May in a three-wheeler auto-rickshaw along with three other persons.

Right now there is a lockdown, how can I go back. I am relying on farming for survival in my village, he said.

When will his company resume operations is anybodys guess. While in the Centres financial package, micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) were among the main intended beneficiaries, these are yet to recover from the impact.

According to a survey by CARE Ratings conducted over two weeks from June 23 to July 7, one-third of the MSMEs faced revenue losses of over 50% in the last 3 months and over 60% have been unable to pay full salaries to their staff.

Santosh said he received the cash transfer of Rs 1,000 from the government and also got Rs 300 a day during the quarantine. The ration supplies are procured by the family through his fathers ration card as he is yet to get a ration card in his name. Santosh said he would like to return whenever his employer calls him back. That call could take longer now.

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Continued here:

July harder than June, migrants out of work hit economic wall at home - The Indian Express

The world is being tested by the Covid-19 pandemic, described by United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres as the most challenging crisis we have faced since the Second World War. It is a health and human rights crisis on a global scale that has swept across borders, leaving no country untouched, and impacting the lives of millions, many of whom are among the most vulnerable. The human rights consequences, including those that flow from inadequate or unequal access to health care, entrenched inequalities, and the impact of devastated economies, will be felt for years to come.

In April 2020, Human Rights Watch prepared a human rights policy checklist to assist governments in developing effective, rights-respecting responses to the Covid-19 crisis.

The checklist sets out more than 40 questions to guide rights responses across a broad range of areas, including access to affordable health care; to water and sanitation; adequate housing, food and education; while ensuring the safety of those in detention; ensuring access to information; maintaining freedom of expression; closing the digital divide; ensuring emergency powers meet international standards, and addressing the needs of groups most at risk, including people living in poverty, ethnic and religious minorities, women, people with disabilities, older people, LGBT people, migrants, refugees, and children.

Because these issues cannot be addressed in the abstract, in April 2020, our published checklist illustrated the policy questions by reference to both good practices and areas of concern, recognizing that these can be neither prescriptive nor exhaustive.[1]

While some jurisdictions have ensured that states of emergency are time-limited and subject to oversight, Hungary and Cambodia, among others, have adopted state of emergency laws that give the government unlimited powers for an indefinite duration.

While some states have prioritized access to information, government officials in countries including Brazil, Burundi, China, Mexico, Myanmar, the US, and Zimbabwe have exhibited disturbing denialism about Covid-19, depriving their populations accurate information on the pandemic.

In countries including Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, Egypt, and Venezuela, people have been arrested and detained for expressing their opinion about Covid-19 on social media.

Israels 13-year-long closure of Gaza means that restrictions on the import of medical supplies, and denial of transit permits for many requiring vital medical treatment outside of Gaza, is impeding the crisis response.

International law is clear that even amid a public health crisis, emergency measures taken by governments that restrict basic rights must be lawful, necessary, and proportionate. Governments should not exploit the pandemic to silence critics. By curbing information and shutting down criticism of their health policies, governments that do not respect rights put both their citizens and neighboring countries at further risk during the pandemic.

We urge the Committee to recommend to the Australian government to use this checklist to assess the human rights implications of country responses to Covid-19. Where foreign governments are violating rights as part of their Covid-19 response, we urge the Australian government to engage in consistent and principled diplomacy calling out these abuses publicly as well as privately. Consistency is key to avoid allegations of double standards or bias. Indeed, the Australian government itself should strive to meet the human rights standards in this checklist.

Covid-19: A Human Rights Checklist

Prevention and Care

Keeping the Public Informed

Providing Testing and Treatment

Protecting Doctors and Frontline Workers

Reducing Risks in Detention Facilities and Jails

Boosting Access to Water and Sanitation

Helping Across Borders

Rights-Respecting Crisis Management

Using Emergency Powers and Addressing Security Force Abuse

Avoiding Sacrificing Other Rights

Addressing the Economic Fallout

Responding to the Harms of Social Distancing

Psychosocial Support

Keeping Kids Learning

Tackling Violence in the Home and Against Minorities

---------

[1] For policy examples, refer to Covid-19: A Human Rights Checklist, Human Rights Watch, April 14, 2020, https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/04/14/covid-19-human-rights-checklist.

[2] Afghanistan: Surge in Women Jailed for Moral Crimes, Human Rights Watch news release, May 21, 2020, https://www.hrw.org/news/2013/05/21/afghanistan-surge-women-jailed-moral-crimes.

[3] Erika Nguyen and Namratha Somayajula (Human Rights Watch), Access to Water Vital in Covid-19 Response, commentary, March 22, 2020, https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/03/22/access-water-vital-covid-19-response.

[4] Joint Civil Society Statement: States Use of Digital Surveillance Technologies to Fight Pandemic Must Respect Human Rights, April 2, 2020, https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/04/02/joint-civil-society-statement-states-use-digital-surveillance-technologies-fight.

[5] Joint Civil Society Statement: European Governments Must Ensure Safe and Timely Access to Abortion Care During the Covid-19 Pandemic, April 8, 2020, https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/04/08/joint-civil-society-statement-european-governments-must-ensure-safe-and-timely.

[6] Covid-19 and Ending Violence Against Women and Girls, United Nations Women briefing paper, April 2020, https://www.unwomen.org/-/media/headquarters/attachments/sections/library/publications/2020/issue-brief-covid-19-and-ending-violence-against-women-and-girls-en.pdf?la=en&vs=5006.

Read more from the original source:

Submission to the Inquiry into the Implications of the Covid-19 Pandemic for Australia's Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade - Human Rights Watch

Last year, PepsiCo was scouting for a suitable location for its fourth plant in India. The $67 billion beverages and snack food giant would invest Rs 500 crore to set up a unit to make its popular Lays and Doritos chips. The plant would employ 1,500 people, and bring with it associated benefits contract farming that would assure demand and improve quality and yield for farmers; business for vendors in cold chain, transportation, and so on.

After much deliberation, it zeroed in on a state that is also its largest market in India. The states network of expressways, proximity to the national capital region, an upcoming international airport and the red-carpet welcome rolled out by the state government all helped in the decision-making. Everything applications to clearances happened via a single-window digital platform called Nivesh Mitra. Within months, land was acquired, approvals sought and clearances secured. Despite the pandemic, construction is on in full swing. The MNC is pleasantly surprised that whatever was promised has been delivered.

The plant will be operational next summer. Besides the chief ministers office monitoring the progress, a direct line with the local district magistrate helps in resolving routine glitches.

This is the kind of thing one hears about businessfriendly states such as Gujarat, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh or Tamil Nadu. But PepsiCos new plant is coming up at Kosi Kalan in Mathura district in Uttar Pradesh. Our plant in UP will not only help us double our snack business over the next few years but also deepen Pepsi-Cos relationship with the states potato farmers, says Ahmed ElSheikh, president, PepsiCo India.

UP occupies a lot of mind space, but mostly for the wrong reasons. It was recently in the news because gang members of a local don with political connections gunned down eight policemen. Once the state police apprehended him, he was killed in an encounter a euphemism for custodial killing.

Right now the state is busy with the groundbreaking ceremony of Ram Mandir in Ayodhya, due on Wednesday. Its the culmination of the Ram Janmabhoomi movement that started in the 1980s and propelled the rise of the BJP, now in power both at the Centre and in the state. These are what UP is often associated with the quintessential heartland cocktail of crime, unemployment, political fault lines of caste and religion, bad governance and poor socioeconomic indicators.

Ever since he came to power in 2017, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and his team of ministers and bureaucrats have been putting up a determined effort to attract invest ments into the state. Without improving the states economic prospects, they reckon, the BJP reckons, it wont be easy to retain the voters confidence. It has taken time, but the results are beginning to show.

However, in all the din around UP, Adityanaths take-no-prisoners style, unabashed Hindutva politics and the inevitable controversies, these are easy to miss.

Encouraged by the vision of the chief minister and the efforts of this investment-friendly government, ITC is progressively expanding its footprint in UP, says Chitranjan Dar, member, corporate management committee, and group head (projects), ITC Ltd. Haldirams is setting up two new plants worthRs 500 crore, employing 2,000-plus people, in the next three-four years. Fast-track process, government handholding industry and the upcoming Jewar airport and expressways have helped us decide on UP, says Sanjay Singhania, vice-president (commercial), Haldirams.

The state is fast becoming a mobile manufacturing hub. In 2018, Samsung inaugurated its worlds largest mobile factory in UP as part of its $715 million India investment plan. Many more like Vivo and Lava are following. In May-June, even as the state dealt with the pandemic and the migrant labour crisis, the important work of wooing investors didnt stop.

The states Yamuna Expressway Industrial Development Authority (YEIDA) auctioned via video conferencing 63 acres of land for 27 industrial units, entailing investments ofRs 1,600 crore, which would create over 32,000 jobs. Its CEO Arunvir Singh is pitching UPs network of expressways and the Jewar international airport to woo investors for its upcoming industrial parks. These include a 300 acre park for small businesses, a 700 acre electronic city and a 200 acre textile park. When completed, they would create 7 lakh new jobs, he says.

In Lucknow, Minister for MSME, Investment & Export Promotion Sidharth Nath Singh is focusing on global investors. In July, he reckons, in one fortnight he would have made virtual presentations to executives in the US, UK, Russia, Thailand, Germany, South Korea and Japan, to invest in UP. Targeting those looking to derisk from China, UP has set up dedicated foreign desks for outreach helped by the Centre and embassies. Thats how the Microsoft deal happened. I got to know at a webinar that Microsoft was planning a campus in North India. I immediately reached out, says Sidharth Nath Singh.

Land parcels in Greater Noida have been sold out. The Yamuna Expressway has got a good response and 53 hectares of its Aligarh node, part of the defence corridor, have been allotted. At the UP Investors Summit 2018, 1,045 MoUs were signed, entailing investments of Rs 4.28 lakh crore. With two ground-breaking ceremonies, 34% MoUs have matured, says the minister. Numbers confirm this.

Project UptickOf late, UP has seen a robust growth of both public and private sector project investment (See chart). According to Projects Today, a tracker of projects, UPs cumulative investments funnel has doubled from Rs 4.22 lakh crore in March 2015 to Rs 8.07 lakh crore in March 2020. Its project implementation ratio a proxy for projects getting off the ground has improved from 36.86% to 43.88% during the period. Fresh annual investments grew fromRs 39,193 crore in March 2018 to Rs 52,211 crore in March 2020, even as the share of private sector grew from 29.45% to 42.18%.

UP is doing well. If this continues we may see a new UP in the next five years, says Shashikant Hegde, director, Projects Today. Since 2017, it has got some of its biggest infrastructure projects off the ground completing old ones and kicking off new. Take theRs 30,000 crore Jewar airport. First proposed in 2001, it is now on track to be ready by 2022-23. Proposals to build 12 new airports, including in Ayodhya and Varanasi, have been cleared. The Agra-Lucknow Expressway (302 km) got completed and the Rs 39,000 crore Ganga Expressway (602 km) has been kicked off.

Both Purvanchal and Bundelkhand expressways will be built on time. We are working seriously on the defence corridor project with the Aligarh node, says Awanish Awasthi, additional chief secretary (home), UP government.

Turnaround Scepticism Is this for real? Can UP actually turn a corner? Over the last month, ET Magazine spoke to at least two dozen people who are stakeholders in UPs economy, including corporate executives, businesspeople, real estate developers, representatives of industry bodies, including MSME chapters in towns like Bulandshahr, Deoria, Varanasi, Muzaffarnagar and Agra, and a number of sectoral experts, to piece together the real picture. The view is unanimous the gap between UPs image and reality as a destination for business is growing rapidly.

UP is relentlessly wooing businesses, projects and investors. There are several underlying reasons. The NDA government at the Centre deems UPs economic performance to be key to retaining its voters. Hence, it is deploying all resources political, economic, religious and financial to build a robust foundation. UP today has Indias best expressway network and it is set to only get better. Mega projects like airports and its audacious greenfield defence corridor project have been flagged off. For the first time, I am seeing this aggressiveness and dynamism in UP to woo investors. UPs defence corridor is greenfield while Tamil Nadus is brownfield. The Centre will play a critical role in directing these investments, says a defence sector expert.

Growth in Projects & Investments

Growth in Projects & Investments

All the top ministers, bureaucrats and the CM were to come to the campus in buses without their VIP bandobast. The CM led from the front, getting into the bus first. Everyone just followed, she says. For her, two things stood out the CMs clarity of thinking and determination to deliver results. Two people a minister and a senior bureaucrat recall instances of projects being stuck in Raibareli and Gorakhpur because concerned officers were delaying clearances. In his weekly review of delayed projects, Adityanath pulled up the officers, found their explanations wanting and suspended them right away. His message is clear. Such behaviour will not be tolerated, says minister Sidharth Nath Singh.

This even as the state is tweaking norms and redrafting incentive packages to woo industries like shoe manufacturing and agri-processing away from China. Suspending labour laws for three years was among them. In May, German footwear maker Von Wellx decided to move its entire production from China to UP with its partner Latric Industries.

Its CEO, Ashish Jain, says, Government support and CMs ability to make the bureaucracy move were remarkable. He has been promised that footwear will be included as part of the garment policy incentive package. His `110 crore project will set up two plants, create 10,000 jobs and will produce 3 million pairs annually.

Eliminating CrimeAccording to the National Crime Records Bureau 2018, UP has the second highest incidences of crime under IPC in the country, after Maharashtra. The state has been rightly criticised for a spate of extrajudicial killings since Adityanath came to power. The CM has made his tough line on crime quite clear.

Shortly after taking office, in 2017, Adityanath had openly said that criminals would either go to jail or be killed in police encounters. Under Adityanaths watch, 119 such killings have occurred, according to media reports. The cops have been acquitted in 74 cases where a magisterial enquiry has been completed. Many entrepreneurs and executives say the crime situation has improved, going by their experience. Pankaj Agarwal, promoter of Bindlas Duplux Ltd and head of the Muzaffarnagar chapter of the Indian Industries Association, says in the past his manager was once shot at.

THE SHIFT : The Yogi Adityanath government has rolled out a slew of initiatives-

THE SHIFT : The Yogi Adityanath government has rolled out a slew of initiatives-

Avinash Kumar, an IITian and IAS officer with stints in private sector and startups, is special secretary to the CM and oversees the platform. He was brought to Lucknow in 2017 to build a robust, user-friendly, single-window clearance digital platform to monitor all applications and approvals. Through Nivesh Mitra, CM directly monitors key projects with his Team 11 to remove hurdles, says Awasthi. (Team 11 is a group of top bureaucrats.) Today, Nivesh Mitra offers 149 services across 20 departments. In 20182020, it got 2.05 lakh applications and gave 1.63 lakh clearances.

Despite lockdown, between April 1 and July 20, 34,361 applications were filed and 28,248 clearances were issued. With timebound deadlines for bureaucrats and a transparent view of where files are stuck, the application-to-approval cycle has been smoothened. Weekly project reviews by the CM is creating a hustle culture in a sclerotic bureaucracy. Time to get the factory licence has halved from three-four weeks earlier to onetwo weeks now, says Sanjeev Agarwal, CMO of phone maker Lava International. Sunil Chaturvedi, chairman of Gainwell Commosales, recalls how pleasantly surprised he was when the electricity duty discount due to him was credited to his account without any follow-up or palm-greasing.

Perception vs Reality

But livelihood and rehabilitation of so many will not be easy for any government." MSMEs in UP are in deep crisis. From Bulandshahr to Varanasi, they are hurting and many won't survive. Says Sanjeev Arora, head, Deoria chapter (Gorakhpur), Indian Industries Association: "The government announced many pandemic schemes. We have got nothing. It is all in the air, more promises than action." Add to this the skewed development within the state.

Says Sunil Kumar Sinha, principal economist, India Ratings: "The dichotomy between east and west UP is stark. UP has to grow faster to fill the deficit." From Bundelkhand Expressway to the defence corridor, the Centre is helping UP attract investment and develop some of its most backward regions. But this is easier said than done. The top-down approach of driving change from Lucknow also has its limitations. DS Verma, executive director, Indian Industries Association, says: "Intention at the top is good. But lower and mid-level (government) machinery is rusted."

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How Yogi Adityanath is beginning to recast UP as a business friendly destination - Economic Times

The latest edition of The World This Week covers:Forthcoming elections in Sri Lanka, a migrant problem turning political in Italy, and the Second wave in Vietnam| Contributors to this edition are: Chrishari de Alwis Gunasekare, Sourina Bej, Aparupa Bhattacherjee, Harini Madhusudan

Sri Lanka: Getting ready for the general elections this week, amidst the COVID-19

What happened?The General Election in Sri Lanka to form a new Parliament, which was initially scheduled for April and then postponed to June, will be finally held on 5 August 2020. Despite experiencing a second wave of the coronavirus in mid-July, the voting will take place as planned under strict health guidelines and safety measures on the scheduled date.

What is the background?First, the uncertainties surrounding the elections. After the Presidential elections in 2019 bought Gotabaya Rajapaksa to power, the opposition-controlled Parliament was dissolved in March 2020. Initially, the 16th Parliamentary election of Sri Lanka was scheduled in April. However, with the spread of the coronavirus pandemic and an island-wide curfew in effect, the Election Commission postponed the elections indefinitely, despite the Presidents insistence to hold the election as scheduled. Since the constitution calls for a dissolved Parliament to be replaced within the three months, the Election Commission decided to open the polls on 20 June in order to avert a constitutional crisis. However, the election again had to be rescheduled to 5 August.

Second, a look at the contending political parties. The political party with the highest stake in this election is Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) led by the Rajapaksas. The party looks for the opportunity to consolidate power with a two-thirds majority in order to enable the newly formed government to repeal the 19th Amendment. The Opposition, on the other hand, is fractured; it is divided between the United National Party (UNP) under former Prime Minister Wickremesinghe and the newly formed Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) under the leadership of Sajith Premadasa, which is a breakaway group of UNP. This significantly weakens both parties as neither will be able to secure the required number of Parliamentary seats to challenge SLPP. Besides these parties, the Leftist party Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), now reformed as an alliance named Jathika Jana Balavegaya (NPP) and the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) are smaller parties, expected to secure a few seats in the upcoming poll.

Third, the election campaign during the pandemic.The campaigning for the general elections took place in a subdued manner as the Covid-19 Pandemic prevented the candidates from conducting mass rallies. Most activities were conducted through social media, advertisements and through a door to door campaigning in strict compliance with health guidelines, as the candidates tried to connect with the voters from their electorates.

What does it mean?The outcome of the election will significantly reshape the Sri Lankan political stage. While it is not certain that the SLPP will be able to secure the two-thirds majority, it is evident that the party would dominate this election. The pandemic situation favours the Rajapaksa rule where the citizens look for stability which might result in the repeal of the 19th Amendment. If the SJB manages to secure a significant number of seats over the UNP, then the newly formed party will emerge as the leading Opposition Party while the UNP will look for a change in leadership.

As indicated by the number of postal votes already cast, it is expected for the voter turnout to drop as low as 70 per cent this election, because voters seem discouraged by health restrictions, political apathy and wariness of the political system stimulated by the pandemic.

Italy: Former Interior Minister Matteo Salvini to go on trial for blocking ship carrying migrants

What happened?The Senate in on 30 July voted to lift the immunity of former interior minister and the leader of the opposition Matteo Salvini, thereby initiating a possible trial against the minister for refusing to let a ship carrying 150 migrants dock in Italy in 2019. The prosecutors initiated the charge against the minister, in Sicily. They have sought to bring accountability to Salvinis policy to illegally detain the migrants on a ship operated by a Spanish charity. The trial could start later this year in Sicily, the place where the boat eventually docked after almost three weeks at sea in 2019.

What is the background?First, Italy is in the front line of two overlapping crises- migration and pandemic.The initiation of the trial against Salvini comes at a time when the country is facing a dual crisis of incoming migrants and the pandemic. Italy has been one of the southern European countries in the front line of Europes migration crisis from 2014 to 2017, with thousands of migrants and refugees arriving by boat from Libya.In the first quarter of 2020, ever since the pandemic started, about 12,500 migrants have arrived in Italy by sea. As the migrants keep arriving, the country has an added burden of screening a larger number of people. Also, with a dozen of Bangladeshis migrants (who have arrived in Italy legally) testing positive for the virus, Italy is grappling with imposing the quarantine rules. The migrant centres are filled beyond their capacity with a risk of contagion. In order to stop the spread of the virus, the government has continued to impose strictest initial quarantine rules in the migrant centres leading many to break out. The Italian government had to deploy soldiers in one of the migrant centres in Sicily to stop the breakouts.

Second, the trial is politically motivated but first to bring to justice an anti-immigration policy.As an interior minister from 2018 to 2019, Salvini pursued an anti-immigration policy that drew both criticism and applause. While he was globally criticized for his pushback and denying entry to migrants, domestically, he had the public support who continues to view the migrant influx as a reason for an economic burden. In his tenure, Salvini refused docking rights to several ships captained by Spanish charity non-governmental organizations.

The present trial charge follows another trial he was slated to face for one of the other ships he declined entry to. The Senate, however, upheld his immunity, in that case, thereby making this case the first when Salvini will have to justify his policy in court. The Senates decision to lift Salvinis immunity this time is also because his anti-immigration policy had led to a split in the ruling coalition. As he left the government in 2019 to join the Opposition, the ruling coalition has since grappled with falling approval ratings but still remains one of the strongest political alliance in the country.

What does it mean?First, once Matini faces the trial in court, it is likely to open the debate on the sharing of the refugees and the migrants in the region between the north and the south European countries. Italy is not the only country that has followed a strong anti-immigration policy. Greece also follows a similar policy where the Coast Guard is seen restricting the rafts full of migrants coming to its shores. For the migrants, Italy and Greece are the first stops in their journey. Several looks to move to the Scandinavian or the Northern European countries and frequent breakouts have been reported where the migrants have taken to travel to Stockholm or Berlin but have been sent back to the landing countries of Italy and Greece. Italy has long wanted a dialogue over the migrant sharing, and the reason for Salvini in 2019 to continue stopping the migrants at sea is to pressurize for a deal with the EU countries to take them in.

Second, this will be the first time a populist far-right leader riding on the anti-immigrant sentiment is going to face a trial. But putting the leader on trial will definitely humanize the issue but not solve it. Around 39 per cent of the people have miffed sentiments towards the immigrants. During the pandemic, when the economy is in a recession, the immigration issue will open the social fault lines where the people will fault the migrants for being a burden on their falling economy.

Vietnam: The second wave

What happened?After a gap of three months, Vietnam has declared a high-alert due to the rising number of coronavirus cases in the country. Till date, more than 30 cases reported including in its capital Hanoi and business capital Ho Chi Minh City. On 29 July, Nguyen Xuan Phuc, the Prime Minister, warned the country and stated that every city and province are at risk and warned that this new wave is stronger than the previous one.

What is the background?First, Vietnam has been revered globally as a success story. A centralized quarantine programme and an aggressive contact tracking system have been the reasons for success. During the first wave in February, Vietnam managed to keep its tally to total 450 cases, with zero fatality and none reported to be locally transmitted infections. This was commendable due to two reasons; one, Vietnam is a highly populated country with 95 million people. Second, although it shares a border with China, which has been the source country of the virus, it decided to take a risk and did not close the border unlike the rest of Chinas neighbours.

Second, the eagerness to revive the economy could have backfired. Vietnams enthusiasm and desperation to open were aided by its initial success and the need to sustain its economy. Vietnam, in June, started domestic travel, schools, and offices. Along with the opening of the job sector, the government to boost the slugging tourism industry encouraged discounts on travel and stay and also provided an incentive for people to travel. This explains the large crowd in Da Nang, a popular tourist destination of Vietnam.

Third, Vietnam is not the only country, to start the process to return to normalcy. Several other countries, even with a growing number of cases, are compelled to do so due to the negative impact of the pandemic on the economy. This could be one of the reasons for the second wave in most of the countries around the globe.

What does it mean?As the source of the new transmission is yet to be discovered, there could be several more cases in the coming days. The current total tally does not include the 18,000 are to return to Ho Chi Minh from Da Nang. Additionally, the Vietnamese scientists have said this strain of the virus is more infectious than the previous one. The government is taking necessary measures such as banning large gatherings; nevertheless, as stated by the Chairman of the city administration, the country needs to to act now and act fast.

Although the governments quick economic recovery plan is one of the primary reason for the second wave, it seems they are in denial. The wrath of the second wave is being faced by the immigrant labours working in the country. Instead of managing the tourist, the police in Da Nang and the rest of the country have been arresting illegal migrants and people suspected to be part of the human trafficking racket. This has a larger good as these rackets are to be curbed; however, this timing is not suitable. The illegal migrants in the country are desperate; additionally, the thriving construction works and packaging industry in Vietnam are also heavily dependent on them. Also, the government seems not to realize that unlike the previous time, when the virus was transmitted in the country through a traveller, this time it is a community transmission. Focusing only on the illegal migrants will not be helpful.

ALSO IN THE NEWS

South Africa: Confirmed cases reach almost half a million

South Africa has become the worlds fifth-highest infection burden. With its death toll at 8,000, South Africa recorded 193 deaths over the weekend. The number of positive cases in South Africa stands at 493,000 with a 66 per cent recovery rate- 326,171 patients recovered so far. However, South Africa reported the production of 10,000 batches of its first self-designed ventilators to cope with the increasing cases.

Hong Kong: Police arrest four and seek warrants for six, pro-democracy activists

In the context of the National Security Law, the Hong Kong police on 29 July, arrested four student protesters for creating a platform to promote the Independence of Hong Kong. On 1 August, the police issued arrest warrants, the first of its kind, against six individuals outside Hong Kong, seeking extraterritorial provision on the grounds of inciting secession and collusion with external and foreign forces.

Hong Kong: Elections postponed by a year

Citing the risks to the health of the citizens and the third-wave of the pandemic as a reason, Carrie Lam invoked emergency powers to postpone Hong Kong Legislative Council polls by a year. This announcement was made one day after the election officials in Hong Kong banned 12 pro-democracy activists from contesting in the elections. Though there was a denial of any pollical motive in the delaying of elections, many believe that the postponement has to do with the recent security law and the arrests.

Afghanistan: More than 1200 civilians killed in Afghanistan during Jan-June 2020

A UN report published on 27 July, states that there were 1,282 civilian deaths in the first half of 2020, and 2,176 wounded. The report says Taliban and Islamic State are behind 58 per cent of these attacks and the pro-government forces were responsible for 23 per cent of them. Though the numbers this year show a thirteen per cent decrease in the deaths compared to 2019, these numbers are despite heightened efforts to achieve peace in Afghanistan.

Pakistan: Government presents an ordinance on the Kulbhushan Jadhav Case

The government passed the ICJ Ordinance 2020 before the National Assembly, to allow consular access in-line with the ICJ verdict. Pakistan court announced the formation of two-member bench to hear the case and review the petition filed by the Pakistan government. The bench comprising Islamabad High Court (IHC) Chief Justice Athar Minallah and his fellow judge Justice Miangul Hassan Aurangzeb would take up the government plea on 3 August.

The United States: Set to withdraw 12,000 troops from Germany

President Trump announced the removal of 12,000 troops from Germany as a response to Germanys failure to meet NATO defence spending targets. While describing it as strategic repositioning of its forces in Europe, 6,400 troops would be sent home, and the rest would be moved to other countries such as Italy and Belgium. This move has raised concern among senior officials in Germany as well as received Opposition in the US Congress.

The United States: Americans views on China sores, according to a survey

According to a new Pew Research Centre survey, unfavourable views of China reach a new high, with the majority supporting a tougher stand on human rights. The survey conducted between 16 June and 14 July among 1,003 adults in the United States, finds that while Republicans and Democrats both have negative views of China and are critical of Beijings handling of the coronavirus, and the criticism is more prevalent among Republicans. More Americans also think the US should hold China responsible for the role it played in the outbreak of the coronavirus than think this should be overlooked in order to maintain strong bilateral economic ties.

The United States: NASA launches its Mars rover

On 30 July, NASA launched its 2020 Mars rover named Perseverance. After its successful launch from Cape Canaveral, the cold atmospheric temperatures forced the spacecraft into a safe-mode. The rover is known to carry seven instruments to explore the geology and climate. The rover also carries NASAs Ingenuity helicopter, a tiny rotorcraft that would attempt to fly in the atmosphere of the red planet.

Europe: The EU restricts exporting surveillance technology to Hong Kong

The member states agreed to a package of measures as a response to the National Security Law in Hong Kong that the bloc believes would extensively erode peoples rights and freedoms. The European Union announced export restrictions to Hong Kong of any equipment that can be used for internal repression, interception of internal communications or cyber surveillance, as measures, Germany announced that it would now treat Hong Kong like it treats mainland China.

Chrishari de Alwis Gunasekare is a postgraduate scholar at the UMISARC, Pondicherry University.Sourina Bej is a Project Associate at NIAS. Aparupa Bhattacherjee and Harini Madhusudan are PhD scholars with the School of Conflict and Security Studies, NIAS.

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The World This Week: Forthcoming elections in Sri Lanka + two other issues - TheDispatch